Baltic Dry Index. 1378 -10 Brent Crude 74.34
Spot Gold 2757 US 2 Year Yield 4.21 +0.05
All that the socialists understand about money is the fact that they want it from others.
Konrad Adenauer.
Barring a new World War, the big news this week is the end, hopefully, of the dreadful US comedy show, aka the US elections.
Two economic illiterates compete for the top job in the free world, both seemingly unaware that as of this morning, the US Federal Debt stands at 35.969 trillion and will be about 36.300 trillion, when whichever misfit takes over in mid-January promising to increase it much further. It was “only” 33 trillion at the end of October 2023!
With the US casinos all-in on a Trump win, I have my doubts, a Trump loss might prove traumatic for many US stocks. If either Party wins the trifecta, Presidency, Senate and House, expect fun and games in the US stock casinos.
Elsewhere, in lesser, but still important news, China on Friday is expected to provide more details of how it intends to get its economy out of deflation.
Before that in the UK, the Treasury and BOE face a growing gilt-edge bad reaction to last week’s UK budget.
In Europe, don’t ask. Europe’s auto industry seems to have entered a death spiral.
In better news though, the Boeing strike is expected to end this week.
Asia-Pacific markets rise as investors await U.S.
elections, China parliament meeting
Updated Mon, Nov 4 2024 12:26 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets rose Monday as
investors geared up for a busy week that includes the U.S. presidential
election and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting.
Investors will also closely watch China’s
parliament meeting that’s scheduled to kick off on Monday. Chinese authorities
are expected to announce more details on fiscal support when the meeting
concludes on Friday.
China’s October trade data is due Thursday
after downbeat
exports and imports growth in September.
South Korea will report its October
consumer inflation reading on Tuesday, which is estimated to ease for the third
consecutive month to 1.4% year on year, according to LSEG estimates. That
compares with 2.6% in July, 2.0% in August and 1.6% in September.
Australia’s central bank will also reveal
its interest rate decision on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely
to hold its official cash rate at 4.35%, according to a Reuters poll of
economists.
Japan’s markets were closed Monday for a
holiday.
South Korea’s blue chip Kospi added 1.54%
while the small-cap Kosdaq gained 3.19%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 0.1%
in choppy trading, while mainland China’s CSI 300 edged up 0.7%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 inched 0.6%
higher.
The Taiwan Weighted Index advanced 0.5%.
Overnight in the U.S., stock futures
slipped. Futures tied to the Dow
Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.3%, while the S&P 500 futures lost
0.25%, and the Nasdaq-100
futures dropping 0.3%.
U.S. crude futures jumped over
1% on Monday as the OPEC+
member countries agreed to delay a planned December output increase by
one month. West Texas
Intermediate jumped 1.42% to $70.47 per barrel and Brent climbed 1.37% to
$74.10.
Asia markets live: China parliament meeting, U.S. election in focus
Berkshire Hathaway’s cash fortress tops $300
billion as Buffett sells more stock, freezes buybacks
Published Sat, Nov 2 2024 9:12 AM EDT
Berkshire Hathaway’s monstrous
cash pile topped $300 billion in the third quarter as Warren Buffett continued
his stock-selling spree and held back from repurchasing shares.
The Omaha-based conglomerate saw its cash
fortress swell to a record $325.2 billion by the end of September, up from
$276.9 billion in the second quarter, according to its earnings report released
Saturday morning.
The mountain of cash kept growing as the
Oracle of Omaha sold significant portions of his biggest equity holdings,
namely Apple and Bank of America. Berkshire dumped
about a quarter of its gigantic Apple stake in the third quarter,
making the fourth consecutive quarter that it has downsized this bet.
Meanwhile, since mid-July, Berkshire has reaped more than $10 billion from
offloading its longtime Bank of America investment.
Overall, the 94-year-old investor
continued to be in a selling mood as Berkshire shed $36.1 billion worth of
stock in the third quarter.
No buybacks
Berkshire didn’t repurchase any company
shares during the period amid the selling spree. Repurchase activity had
already slowed down earlier in the year as Berkshire shares outperformed the
broader market to hit record highs.
The conglomerate had bought
back just $345 million worth of its own stock in the second quarter,
significantly lower than the $2 billion repurchased in each of the
prior two quarters. The company states that it will buy back stock when
Chairman Buffett “believes that the repurchase price is below Berkshire’s
intrinsic value, conservatively determined.”
More
Berkshire Hathaway's cash fortress tops $300 billion as Buffett sells more stock, freezes buybacks
China gears up for a big week as markets await
U.S. elections and stimulus details
Published Sun, Nov 3 2024 6:03 PM EST
BEIJING — The size of China’s highly
anticipated stimulus plans will likely depend on the outcome of the U.S.
presidential election, analysts said.
Investors expect Beijing to announce
details on fiscal support Friday. That’s when the standing committee of the
National People’s Congress — China’s parliament — is due to wrap
up a five-day meeting. The same gathering last year oversaw a rare
increase in the fiscal deficit.
This year, the meeting’s timing means any
details will be out just days after the U.S. has voted Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat
rival Kamala Harris in
as the next president. Polls are set to close Tuesday local time.
“The size of China’s fiscal stimulus
package would be around 10~20% bigger under a Trump win than under the scenario
of a Harris win,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said in a note last
week.
He cautioned that most of China’s
challenges are domestic, though there will be some impact from the U.S.
election result.
Trump has threatened to raise
tariffs on U.S. imports from China by 60% — or reportedly by
even 200% in an extreme scenario. Harris, currently vice
president, has not yet signaled a major departure from the Biden
administration’s approach of restricting China’s access to advanced technology.
More tariffs would hit China’s exports, a
bright spot in an economy grappling with a real estate slump and tepid consumer
demand.
Increased trade restrictions would require
China to rely more on domestic demand to boost growth, Zhu Bin, chief economist
of Nanhua Futures, said in a video presentation last week. That’s according to
a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language comments.
“Without question we can be certain of one
thing — if Trump wins the election, China’s domestic stimulus will only be
larger, not smaller,” Zhu said. He expects Trump has a greater chance of
winning, which he said would increase downward pressure on the Chinese yuan
versus the U.S. dollar.
Political analysts debate whether China’s relations
with the U.S. would be better under Trump or Harris.
“I think at this point, probably from
China’s view, a potential president Harris [makes it] easier to expect what
policies likely come,” said Liqian Ren, leader of quantitative investment at
WisdomTree.
That doesn’t mean Beijing will embark on
large-scale support. Chinese authorities are “constrained by the U.S.-China
competition, so the priority number one is to be able to upgrade technology
across the board,” She said. “I think as long as that’s your goal then the
government’s willingness to stimulate is still going to be lukewarm.”
Ren expects the scale of stimulus will be
determined not by who wins the election, but the stock market reaction.
Market volatility in China, but not the
United states, is likely to make “China feel more obligated to counter this
volatility,” she said. In contrast to three or four years ago, Ren said,
Chinese stock market volatility today has a greater impact on economic
confidence.
Chinese stocks have tempered their gains
in recent weeks after surging in late September. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sept. 26 led
a high-level meeting calling for strengthening fiscal and monetary
policy support, and halting the decline in real estate.
While the People’s Bank of China has
cut interest rates, the Ministry of Finance has yet to release details on
widely anticipated fiscal stimulus. Finance Minister Lan Fo’an last month hinted
at an increase in the deficit, and indicated any changes needed to undergo
an approval process before being announced.
More
China gears up for big week ahead of U.S. elections, stimulus hopes
In other news, motor news, nothing good.
VW crisis sparks rural turmoil amidst closure
fears in Germany
3
November 2024
Deutsche Welle writes that when Europe's largest car manufacturer weakens, it can become a problem for many suppliers and, consequently, for their regions as well.
To recap, Volkswagen plans to close at
least three factories in Germany, lay off tens of thousands of employees, and
scale down operations at other facilities in Europe's largest economy.
The German Association of Districts and
Municipalities assesses that the crisis at Volkswagen could lead to problems in
rural areas. "The current situation at VW is not only a major shock
for all of Germany as a business location, but also especially for
companies involved in supplying the automotive industry, most of which operate
in rural areas," said the association's chairman, Achim Brötel (CDU), to
newspapers in the Funke media group.
He added that the expected cuts at VW
raise great concern. "It also concerns many jobs in rural areas, tax
revenues, and, most importantly, concrete future prospects for many people and
their families," emphasised Brötel.
Germans criticise potential state rescue
of VW
The dw.com service cites the results of
a recent survey (conducted from 30 October to 1 November) of
a representative group of 5,001 people. It shows that many people in
Germany are sceptical about any potential state rescue of VW plants. In the
survey conducted by the Civey agency for the web.de news portal, 61% of
respondents opposed the idea of state intervention to prevent plant closures,
while only 25% supported it.
Thomas Schaefer, who is responsible for
the Volkswagen brand within the group, which includes Audi, Seat, and Skoda,
admitted a few days ago that "German factories were not productive
enough and exceeded target costs by 25-50%." This means some facilities
were up to twice as costly as the competition.
In 2023, the group's profit totalled over
£20 billion. However, according to "Die Zeit," "the VW Group is
no longer selling as many cars as before the coronavirus pandemic."
Moreover, the brand's vehicles are much less frequently purchased than sister
brands like Skoda or Cupra, also part of the group.
Volkswagen is selling fewer and fewer
vehicles with combustion engines, especially in China. There, the transition to
e-mobility is progressing significantly faster than in Europe, and the Chinese
prefer to buy from domestic manufacturers, partly due to price and better
digitalisation, as noted by the newspaper.
VW crisis sparks rural turmoil amidst closure fears in Germany
Hydrogen Truck Maker Files for Bankruptcy
3 November 2024
Quantron AG, a German manufacturer
specializing in hydrogen and electric trucks, filed for bankruptcy this week
due to prolonged financial and management issues.
The Augsburg District Court has appointed
Constantin Graf Salm-Hoogstraeten from the restructuring law firm BBL as the
interim administrator.
He is tasked with assessing the company's
financial viability and exploring options for continued operations or
liquidation, according to Boosted.
Delayed Payments to Employees
Founded in 2019 as part of Haller GmbH
& Co. KG, Quantron positioned itself as a pioneer in hydrogen-powered
trucks, aiming to contribute to the broader shift toward cleaner commercial
vehicles.
Despite growing interest in green
transportation, financial troubles and delayed payments to its 90 employees
have strained the company.
The leadership challenges were further
complicated by health issues affecting founder and CEO Andreas Haller, who is
currently recovering from a second heart attack.
In his absence, CFO Beate Reimann, CTO
Rene Wollmann, and Chairman Denis Muratov, who is serving as interim CEO, have
taken on the company’s day-to-day management.
Quantron’s struggles reflect broader
challenges within the automotive industry.
The transition to electric and
hydrogen-powered vehicles has been financially burdensome for many
manufacturers, as supply chain disruptions, increased production costs, and
slow adoption rates make profitability difficult.
Larger automakers have also felt the
strain, as even well-established brands wrestle with the demands of retooling
factories, investing in battery and hydrogen technology, and managing
fluctuating material costs.
Hydrogen Truck Maker Files for Bankruptcy
Hyundai's Initium concept offers a glimpse of the
future of hydrogen
2 November 2024
Hyundai has revealed its latest concept
car, the Initium, which could become the next Nexo hydrogen SUV.
The concept previews a new hydrogen
fuel-cell electric vehicle that Hyundai plans to unveil in the first half of
next year. The Initium uses the firm's new "Art of Steel" design
language which Hyundai says gives a more sturdy and sophisticated appearance.
Its exterior design incorporates 21-inch
alloy wheels, camera door mirrors, flush door handles, a triangular rear
quarter light and a very large roof rack. Meanwhile, the back features a
full-length light bar and square LED brake lights.
In terms of range, Hyundai claims that the
Initium can do up to 650 kilometres between fill-ups, and that the electric
motor produces 150kW/204hp. Furthermore, the battery on-board features
vehicle-to-load – or "V2L" – to allow various household appliances
and personal devices to be charged via the car's battery.
Jaehoon Chang, President and CEO of
Hyundai Motor Company, said: "Hyundai Motor's clear, unwavering commitment
to hydrogen over the past 27 years is rooted in our belief in its potential as
a clean, accessible and therefore a fair energy source for everyone. We are
dedicated to pioneering a future where hydrogen is used by everyone, in
everything, and everywhere. We invite you to join us on this journey."
The Initium will make its debut at the LA
Auto Show and Auto Guangzhou in November.
Hyundai's Initium concept offers a glimpse of the future of hydrogen
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Bosch
announces 7,000 job cuts amid industry turmoil
3
November 2024
The
crisis in the automotive industry is spreading with increasing intensity.
According to current reports, Bosch plans to lay off 7,000 employees working in
plants in Germany, writes "Rzeczpospolita".
-
Bosch will not achieve its economic targets in 2024 - said Stefan Hartung,
the CEO of Bosch. More than 7,000 job cuts have been announced in
Germany, and this number might be even higher. - At the moment,
I cannot rule out that we will need to further adjust our staffing levels
- said Hartung.
Bosch
produces, among other things, discs, brake pads, sensors, and safety systems
for the automotive industry.
In
2023, Bosch generated nearly £80 billion in revenues. According to Hartung,
this year's return on sales is expected to be 4 per cent, although last
year it was 5 per cent, with a target of 7 per cent by 2026.
Bosch
lays off and acquires
"In
recent months, Bosch has repeatedly announced plans to reduce jobs worldwide.
In this case, it concerns more than 7,000 jobs at German locations, primarily
in the automotive supply sector, but also in the tools department and in the
BSH subsidiary dealing with household appliances" - writes
"Rz".
Notably,
while announcing these job cuts, the company is also planning the largest
acquisition in its history. Bosch aims to strengthen its position in the heat
pump and air conditioning industry. As a result, it has acquired the Irish
company Johnson Controls for £6.4 billion.
Bosch announces
7,000 job cuts amid industry turmoil
US
recession in 6 months? PwC survey's shocking revelation on economic turmoil
sounds alarm
31
October 2024
Is
the US economy headed for a recession? PwC's latest "Pulse Survey"
showed that 61 percent of executives polled they expect to see the US economy
fall into a recession over the next six months. What is worrying is that this
figure is up from 49 percent in the June report. The jump occurred despite the
Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and data showing inflation falling.
"PwC’s
October 2024 Pulse Survey shows that executives see economic, political and
regulatory risks no matter who wins the 2024 US presidential election. Consider
the overall economy. Despite the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut and
falling inflation, 61% of respondents agree that the US economy will experience
a recession in the next six months, up from 49% in our June 2024 survey,"
the report reads.
The
executives have cited US economic policy as the biggest risk under either
presidential candidate- Kamala Harris or Donald Trump- the report says.
Moreover, executives are wary about key policies from both candidates, it adds.
"Seventy-five
percent agree or strongly agree that a 10% universal tariff on imports (as
proposed by Trump) would significantly hinder their growth, and 75% agree or
strongly agree that they would significantly reduce their domestic investments
if there were a US corporate tax rate of 28% (as proposed by Harris),"
according to the PwC pulse survey.
Recession
risk remains high in US
While
the key findings of the report suggest that recession risk remains high, cyber
threats continue to top the list of business risks. Despite falling interest
rates, 61% of executives surveyed see a potential recession in the next six
months. The report attributes this fear to geopolitical tensions, concerns
about a slowing labour market, uncertainty about the election, a distracted
electorate and consumers still squeezed by higher costs are contributing.
"Although
executives are worried about other factors — such as profit pressure,
geopolitical tensions, new legal and reputational risks related to artificial
intelligence (AI) — cyber threats remain the top business risks, cited as a
moderate or serious risk by 75% of executives in our survey," the survey
mentions in its key findings.
71
percent of executives say that trade and tax policies will hurt US
competitiveness regardless of who becomes president, it says. There are some
differences though. Executives see higher taxes and climate as policy risks
under Harris, trade and foreign relations as policy risks under Trump.
More
US recession in 6 months? PwC survey's shocking revelation on economic turmoil sounds alarm
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Can
the Covid-19 review provide the answers?
Updated
/ Saturday, 2 Nov 2024 10:13
The
Covid-19 world public health emergency officially ended at the start of May
2023, with a declaration from the World Health Organization.
Most
of the restrictions that had been in place in Ireland were lifted well over a
year earlier, at the start of 2022.
At
this point, the memories of it all make it seem like a very long time ago,
another country even.
But
it only started four years ago and the impacts were devastating.
Some
of the after-effects continue to this day, including Long Covid and vaccination
programmes to protect the most vulnerable.
The
plan for the review had been expected to go to the Cabinet much earlier this
year, but there were big challenges in securing an independent chairperson and
that caused a delay.
What
has been announced this week is an evaluation. It is unclear how much, if any,
of the proceedings will be in public, or broadcast.
Given
the impact of Covid-19 - the number of people infected and the scale of deaths
- it left no family untouched.
For
that reason, every citizen will have some interest in this assessment of
Ireland’s strategy and approach.
So,
transparency and maximum participation will be key.
No
legal power
This
will not be a statutory public tribunal of Inquiry with legal powers.
It
is not a private Commission of Investigation either.
There
will be no power to compel the attendance of witnesses, in public or private,
or the production of documents, including text messages and emails.
The
Government will of course expect all public servants to co-operate with the
proceedings, which will be led by Professor Anne Scott, and supported by a team
of multi-disciplinary experts who have yet to be identified, confirmed and
appointed.
So,
everything is still not in place.
More
Can the Covid-19 review provide the answers?
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
|
New laser
process creates multipurpose graphene material to enhance space exploration
equipment 1
November 2024 |
|||||||
|
(Nanowerk
Spotlight) Space equipment must perform complex functions while operating
in extreme conditions. A telescope's sensors require protection from stray
light that can ruin astronomical observations, while simultaneously managing
temperature swings that can distort images. Astronauts need constant health
monitoring, but current sensors restrict movement and add bulk to space
suits. These technical demands usually require multiple specialized materials
and systems, increasing weight, complexity, and potential points of failure. |
|||||||
|
Standard
space suit sensors use rigid electronic components that limit mobility. Space
telescopes rely on specialized black coatings to absorb unwanted light, but
these coatings often work poorly at certain wavelengths and can peel off
under the extreme temperature changes of space. Both applications demand
materials that function reliably in temperatures from -20 to 60 degrees
Celsius, in near-total vacuum, and under constant radiation exposure. |
|||||||
|
A
research team from the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology has
developed a manufacturing technique that addresses these challenges by
converting ordinary Kevlar fabric into a multifunctional material. Their
process uses precisely controlled laser pulses to transform the Kevlar's
surface into a porous graphene structure
– a form of carbon with exceptional electrical, thermal, and optical
properties. |
|||||||
|
The
team reported their findings in Advanced Functional Materials ("Laser-Induced
Graphene Smart Textiles for Future Space Suits and Telescopes").
|
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.
George Bernard Shaw.
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