Thursday, 21 November 2024

Are Stocks Already Beyond Infinity? Is Adani Creditanstalt?

Baltic Dry Index. 1616 -11           Brent Crude  73.00

Spot Gold 2660                US 2 Year Yield 4.31  +0.04

The Stock Market is designed to transfer money from the Active to the Patient.

Warren Buffett.

With more stocks wobble in Asia, a growing stock scandal in India, a manufacturing cost crisis in Germany and a UK government determined to put up retail inflation, increase retail automation and collapse British farming, it’s probably a good time to be selling stocks alongside Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.

Of course, there’s still time for the Washington-London War Party to start WW3 before an iffy looking Trump team take over on January 20th.

Asia markets mostly fall as investors assess Nvidia results; Adani Group companies plunge

Updated Thu, Nov 21 2024 12:13 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell Thursday, with investors watching tech shares in the region after chipmaker Nvidia reported better-than-expected results.

Nvidia reported a 94% year-on-year surge in revenue for the third quarter to $35.08 billion. However, that is still a consecutive slowdown from the previous three quarters, when sales rose 122%, 262%, and 265%, respectively.

Net income during the quarter rose to $19.3 billion, versus $9.24 billion in the same period a year ago. 
All eyes are on Indian stocks related to billionaire Gautam Adani, after the chair of India’s Adani Group was indicted with others in New York federal court on charges related to a massive bribery and fraud scheme.

Shares of Adani Group companies plunged, with flagship Adani Enterprises down 20%, while the company in the eye of the storm Adani Green Energy tanked 18.19%. Adani Energy also fell 20%. 

Adani Power lost 15.18%, while Adani Port’s share price dropped 15%, The group’s retail arm Adani Wilmar shed 10%.

The Nifty 50 index was down 0.84%, while the BSE Sensex lost 0.8%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.93%, and the broad-based Topix slipped 0.54%. Semiconductor equipment supplier Advantest was one of the the largest losers on the Nikkei, falling almost 3%. The company disclosed it’s relationship with Nvidia in 2023.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.38%, while the small-cap Kosdaq was marginally up. Nvidia supplier SK Hynix reversed gains to drop 0.41%, while heavyweight Samsung Electronics gained 2.53%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded down 0.17%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.13%, while mainland China’s CSI300 was down 0.22%.

Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 ended Wednesday flat, with Nvidia shares slipping nearly 1% ahead of the company’s highly anticipated earnings report. Investors also assessed disappointing results from Target.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 0.11%, while the broad index closed little changed at 5,917.11, The Dow Jones Industrial Average was a bright spot, gaining 0.32%

Asia markets live: Nvidia results, Adani charges

Nasdaq 100 futures fall, Nvidia shares slip after earnings report: Live updates

Updated Thu, Nov 21 2024 8:17 PM EST

Futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 slid Wednesday night as investors parsed the all-important earnings release from artificial intelligence darling Nvidia.

Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.5%, while S&P 500 futures lost nearly 0.4%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 49 points, or 0.1%.

Investors kept a close eye on after-the-bell earnings from Nvidia, the chipmaker that has dazzled Wall Street for more than a year as a key AI beneficiary. While the company beat expectations for the third quarter and issued strong guidance, shares shed more than 2% in extended trading.

The after-hours move “tells you how much the expectations game on Nvidia has been ramped up,” Aswath Damodaran, finance professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.” “They don’t just have to beat analyst estimates; they got to beat them by 10%.”

On the other hand, Snowflake jumped more than 19% after the data analytics software company beat expectations for the third quarter.

That action follows a mixed day on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 ending near flat. The Dow jumped nearly 140 points, while the Nasdaq Composite ticked down 0.1%.

Traders will watch Thursday for economic data on jobless claims and existing home sales. Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid are also expected to give remarks throughout the day.

On the corporate earnings front, investors will parse reports from Gap and Intuit expected after the market closes.

Stock market today: Live updates

Adani investor GQG Partners’ shares crash 25% — on pace for record loss after Gautam Adani’s indictment

Published Thu, Nov 21 2024 12:04 AM EST

Shares of Australia-listed GQG Partners plunged as much as 25% on Thursday and were set to post their worst day on record, after Adani Group Chair Gautam Adani was charged with fraud in New York.

If losses hold, it will be the investment firm’s steepest one-day fall since its listing on Oct. 2021.

Shares of Adani Group companies also nosedived, as Indian stock markets opened for trade. The Nifty 50 index was down 0.75%, while the BSE Sensex was 0.73% lower.

GQG is Adani Enterprises’ fourth-largest shareholder, owning about 3.94% of the firm, according to LSEG data.

In a statement sent to CNBC, GQG said that it was are monitoring the charges, adding that “our team is reviewing the emerging details and determining what, if any, actions for our portfolios are appropriate.”

The investment firm also pointed out that its portfolios have “diversified investments,” saying that over 90% of clients assets are invested in issuers unrelated to the Adani Group.

GQG has reaped rich rewards investing in Adani whose shares tumbled after a short-seller report in January 2023 by New York’s Hindenburg Research accused the company of fraud.

Rajiv Jain, chairman and chief investment officer at GQG Partners, told CNBC in January this year that his profits on Adani stood at about $4 billion, but he was likely done investing in the group.

Hindenburg had charged Adani Group of “brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme over the course of decades,” sending shares plunging by more than 54% in the first quarter of 2023.

Adani Group investor GQG Partners' shares crash 25% — on pace for record loss

The Creditanstalt crisis was a major episode of financial instability that peaked with the collapse of several major banks in Austria and Germany, including Creditanstalt on 11 May 19311The collapse of the Creditanstalt is seen as the trigger to the great deflationary spiral in Europe between 1931 and 19332The collapse of the Credit-Anstalt in Vienna started the spread of the crisis in Europe and forced most countries off the Gold Standard within a few months3Austria played a prominent role in the worldwide events of 1931 as the largest bank in Central and Eastern Europe

In other news.

Euro zone negotiated pay growth accelerates in Q3, adding to rate cut caution

November 20, 2024

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Euro zone negotiated wage growth accelerated in the third quarter, adding to the case for caution in cutting interest rates quickly as the labour market remains tight despite some signs of cooling, data from the European Central Bank showed on Wednesday.

Growth in negotiated wages picked up to 5.42% in the third quarter from 3.54% in the previous three months as workers continued to demand a compensation for incomes lost to the recent spike in inflation.

The figure is unlikely to dash hopes for another ECB rate cut in December. However, policy hawks are likely to use the figures to temper market bets, which see a cut at every policy meeting through the spring, with the 3.25% deposit rate falling to 2% or possibly lower in 2025.

Still, others are likely to argue that recent wage deals not yet reflected in these data are more modest and point to further cooling.

Germany's IG Metall union last week reached a 5.5% pay increase over 25 months for almost 4 million workers, a rather modest deal that may serve as precedent for others to temper demands.

"Our expectation remains that Euro area pay growth will slow noticeably next year as inflation-related catch-up effects fade," JPMorgan economist Greg Fuzesi said. "As headline inflation is now much lower, nominal wage growth will also reset at lower levels going forward once real wages have recovered sufficiently."

The bloc's labour market has been the biggest headache for the ECB as it tries to tame a once-in-a-generation spike in price growth.

Unemployment is at a record low and firms keep hiring workers despite anaemic economic growth hoping to keep a full workforce as they bank on an eventual recovery.

This labour hoarding has increased the negotiating power of unions and workers want their pay to catch up in real terms to levels before inflation.

While the ECB has long acknowledged that wage catch up is necessary, it also called for moderation since excessive payouts could further boost inflation, creating a self-reinforcing cycle.

But inflation has fallen quicker than most expected and price growth is now seen back at 2% possibly in early 2025 as companies are absorbing some wage increases via lower profits and price increases for imported goods and energy have also been especially low.

Price pressures have weakened so much that some policymakers even fear that the ECB could undershoot its 2% inflation target, requiring interest rate to go to ultra low levels.

Euro zone negotiated pay growth accelerates in Q3, adding to rate cut caution

Exclusive-In high-wage Germany, VW's labour costs outstrip the competition

November 20, 2024

BERLIN/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - As Volkswagen and unions gear up for the next round of talks over wages and plant closures in Germany, company and industry data reviewed by Reuters show that the automaker spends a higher proportion of sales on labour costs than major rivals.

The data, in an internal memo by Volkswagen's works council reviewed by Reuters, underscores the company's challenge to remain competitive in its pricey home market as cheaper models from China arrive.

Management will start the next round of negotiations with unions representing roughly 120,000 German workers on Thursday. Unions are demanding a 7% pay rise, while Volkswagen is threatening a 10% cut.

The proportion of revenue spent on labour at Volkswagen globally has fallen from 18.2% in 2020 to 15.4% in 2023 - but that ratio still exceeds BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Stellantis, which spent between 9.5% and 11% in 2023, according to the works council memo.

At VW AG, the German subsidiary that governs the six plants in question, the ratio was estimated at 15.8-17.5%. Volkswagen says it does not release separate figures for VW AG.

The findings by the works council, an elected body of employees representing them in negotiations with management, are based on annual reports showing companies' global spending on personnel compared to revenue. The figures include all staff, from factory to white-collar workers. Reuters checked and confirmed the calculations.

---- "The VW brand has been market leader in Europe every year since 2005 ... its cars are competitive. The problem is not the product, but the costs," he told Reuters.

Germany, where Volkswagen employs nearly 45% of its workforce, has the highest labour costs of any passenger car industry worldwide, averaging 62 euros ($66) per hour in 2023, up around a third from a decade ago, according to the German autos association VDA.

Still, union representatives say labour is a small part of the company's cost base, challenging management to make cuts elsewhere to boost flagging profits.

In an internal flyer to staff, the works council pointed to steep drops in earnings at other parts of the group - Porsche, Audi, and VW Financial Services - in the first nine months of the year, which it said cost the company 5.5 billion euros ($5.8 billion).

More

Exclusive-In high-wage Germany, VW's labour costs outstrip the competition

Indian Billionaire Adani Indicted in US Bribe Case

November 20, 2024

Indian billionaire Gautam Adani and other executives were indicted by a federal grand jury in New York for allegedly paying more than $250 million in bribes to Indian government officials and concealing them from US investors. Between 2020 and 2024, the defendants agreed to make illegal payments to obtain lucrative solar energy supply contracts with the Indian government, according to the indictment. “The defendants orchestrated an elaborate scheme to bribe Indian government officials to secure contracts worth billions of dollars,” Breon Peace, US Attorney for the Eastern District of New York, said in a statement.

How many years do you get in prison for masterminding one of the most breathtaking frauds in Wall Street history? One that almost cooked the goose of some big banks while sealing the fate of a doomed Credit Suisse? Bill Hwang found out on Wednesday when a Manhattan federal judge handed him an 18-year sentence for the implosion of Archegos Capital Management. Hwang, the founder of the $36 billion family office, had been found guilty of fraud and market manipulation tied to the firm’s stunning collapse in 2021. Hwang orchestrated a scheme to mislead bank counterparties into providing Archegos with billions of dollars in trading capacity that inflated the value of his portfolio—until the bubble burst. The debacle caused significant losses at Morgan Stanley, UBS Group and Nomura Holdings, among others. (But Goldman Sachs, you may remember, came out just fine.)

Indian Billionaire Gautam Adani Indicted in US Bribery Case - Bloomberg

Moldova clinches security accord with Britain

Alexander Tanas  Wed 20 November 2024 at 9:27 pm GMT

CHISINAU (Reuters) - Britain and Romania offered their support to Moldova on Wednesday in tackling the effects of Russia's 1,000-day-old invasion of neighbouring Ukraine as London signed a new security and defence partnership agreement with the ex-Soviet state.

Foreign ministers from Britain and Romania visited just over two weeks after pro-European President Maia Sandu won re-election in the country between Ukraine and Romania, though by a smaller margin than expected.

Moldovan voters last month backed, by a tiny margin, a referendum to alter the constitution to include provisions on integration with the European Union.

A British statement said the security partnership was aimed at "building on extensive cooperation between the two countries and strengthening Moldovan resilience against external threats".

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy noted the large influx of Ukrainians since Russia's February 2022 invasion, including 50,000 children.

"With Ukraine next door, Moldovans are constantly reminded of Russia's oppression, imperialism and aggression," Lammy said.

Sandu has denounced Moscow's war in Ukraine and described Russia and corruption as the biggest threats to Moldova, one of Europe's poorest countries.

The two countries also clinched an agreement on re-admission to ensure the return to Moldova of its nationals illegally staying in Britain.

Also agreed were a 2-million-pound ($2.52-million) deal to improve Moldova's protection against cyberattacks and a 5-million-pound grant to improve health services for refugees.

Romanian Foreign Minister Luminita Odobescu welcomed the outcome of Moldova's elections and said the three-sided meeting underscored "the resolve of Romania and the United Kingdom to work together in firmly supporting Moldova".

Romania and Moldova have cultivated strong relations bolstered by a common language and historical links. Prior to independence in 1991, Moldova was for 150 years variously a part of the Russian empire, Greater Romania and the Soviet Union.

More

Moldova clinches security accord with Britain

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Inflation jumps back above Bank of England’s target

Wednesday 20 November 2024 7:08 am  |  Updated:  Wednesday 20 November 2024 7:16 am

Inflation has risen back above the Bank of England’s two per cent target, the latest data has shown today

According to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) consumer price inflation (CPI) hit 2.3 per cent in October. 

The figure came in above economists projections. Economists had forecast CPI to come in at 2.2 per cent, up from 1.7 per cent in September.

Higher energy bills pushed the headline figure higher, with regulator Ofgem hiking its price cap on household bills by 9.5 per cent last month.

The latest inflation figures throw a bit of uncertainty over the trajectory of future interest rates.

The Bank of England’s governor Andrew Bailey has warned that services inflation “is easing only gradually” and that a “more substantial fall” is unlikely this year.

Bailey has also suggested policymakers are still waiting to judge the impact measures in Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first Budget will have on the UK economy.

The central bank raised its inflation forecasts for the next three years after Reeves increased taxes on employers, which business groups have warned could lead to higher prices and a hiring slowdown.

Speaking to MPs at the Treasury Select Committee, governor Bailey said job losses were a realistic prospect.

“I saw the BRC’s (British Retail Consortium’s) letter and I think they’re right to say, I think there is a risk here that the reduction in employment could be more,” Bailey said. “Yes, I think that’s a risk.”

He added that “there will be more pressure on firms’ margins” but they would “probably rebuild those profit margins over time.”

More

Inflation jumps back above Bank of England's target

Lidl boss warns retailers are ‘reeling’ after Budget tax raid

Wednesday 20 November 2024 10:35 am Updated: Wednesday 20 November 2024 10:36 am

The boss of budget supermarket Lidl has warned retailers are “reeling” following Labour’s tax raid in the Autumn Budget.

The German supermarket’s UK boss Ryan McDonnell said the discount brand was staring down the barrel of “tens of millions of pounds” in extra costs.

This comes after the Chancellor unveiled a £25.7bn tax-raising package, with a change to employers’ national insurance contributions. This increased the rate of tax and reduced the level at which they must pay.

Retailers are also set to be hit by an increase to the national minimum wage and packaging levies

This week, Lidl joined other retailers including Tesco, Asda and M&S, in warning the Chancellor job losses would be “inevitable” and price rises nailed on, because of the changes.

In a letter coordinated by the British Retail Consortium (BRC), 79 signatories, including bluechip retailers, Next, and Greggs, said they had “significant concerns” about the impact of the Budget on the retail industry and its knock-on effect “for inflation, employment and investment”.

The BRC estimated that the retail sector will pay an extra £7bn in costs next year, with an additional £2.73bn spent on the minimum wage increase, £2bn on the packaging levy, and £2.33 on higher NICs.

The retailers joined hospitality bosses and farmers in warning that cost hikes in the Budget – including the minimum wage, inheritance tax and employer’s national insurance contributions (NICs) – will decimate family businesses and labour-intensive sectors.

---- Yesterday, the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said the group of 70 retailers were “right” to warn of sweeping job cuts as a result of Labour’s punishing £40bn tax raid at the Budget.

Budget will mean “greater inflationary pressures”

Ryan McDonnell, Lidl GB chief executive, told the PA news agency: “There is a lot of impact that we will have to negotiate and I think the letter shows that the industry is reeling a lot.

“We are talking about £7bn for the whole industry. For us it will be somewhere in the tens of millions.”

He said that the jump in costs will result in “greater inflationary pressures” but stressed that it will “maintain market-leading pricing”.

This comes as Lidl said it had a surge in sales for the past year, as Brits switched from rivals in search of cheaper offers.

New accounts showed Lidl GB’s revenue increased by 16.9 per cent to £10.9bn for the year to February.

It also swung to a pre-tax profit of £43.6m for the year, after posting a loss of £76m a year earlier.

Lidl now has 960 stores in the UK and is the sixth largest grocery chain, according to Kantar.

Lidl boss warns retailers are 'reeling' after Budget tax raid

UAW President, Shawn Fain, meets with Toledo auto workers after Stellantis layoff announcement

November 20, 2024

OLEDO, Ohio (WTVG) - United Auto Worker (UAW) president, Shawn Fain stopped in Toledo, Tuesday to meet with auto workers, just weeks after Stellantis announced mass layoffs coming to Toledo’s Jeep plant.

Stellantis announced about 1,100 workers will be laid off as early as January 2025 as they move production of the Gladiator from two shifts, down to one shift.

Media was not allowed in the meeting, but 13 Action News spoke to some members in the hallways of UAW Local 12. Some said they had some anxieties as those layoffs loom, others remained calm, saying they know the UAW can only do so much.

One Gladiator shift worker, Tyler Wilhelm, has been a UAW member for seven years. He said he has faith in the UAW that they will get him back to work if he loses his job.

“Everyone’s wondering where we’re going to end up,” Wilhelm said. “All we really want to do is just work.”

Representatives with Stellantis said the change in shift is an effort to reduce high inventory levels by managing production to meet sales.

UAW Local 12 President, Bruce Baumhower, said these layoffs come from the top down, as prices rise but sales are down.

As our media partners with The Blade have previously reported, domestic sales of the Gladiator dropped 38% from 2021 to 2023.

“The company decided they wanted to make more profit, they raised the prices on both the wrangler and the gladiator, and all of the sudden the sales have slowed,” Baumhower said. “I think they gotta re-adjust that price and get our guys back to work.”

Baumhower said the impact of these layoffs goes further than just the Toledo plant.

This includes the companies that supply parts to Jeep. Less production means fewer parts being supplied, and less business.

UAW President, Shawn Fain, meets with Toledo auto workers after Stellantis layoff announcement

 

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

No covid update today. Today, Jaguar motors out does Bud Lite.

Jaguar hits back at critics of new DEI rebrand ad that doesn't feature any cars

By JOE HUTCHISON FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

Published: 17:52, 19 November 2024 | Updated: 20:19, 19 November 2024

British carmaker Jaguar has hit back at critics of their rebrand after they released an advert without any cars in it.

The manufacturer unveiled a new logo on Tuesday as part of their rebrand, as well as a cryptic and colorful advert.

Posting the video to their social media site, the ad shows a group of models dressed in bright and flamboyant clothing. 

The ad occasionally pops up with text reading 'create exuberant', 'live vivid', 'delete ordinary', 'break moulds' and 'copy nothing'. 

As it does so, the characters can be seen grabbing at sledgehammers, painting over the screen and posing for photographs in sync. 

Social media users, including the likes of Elon Musk, have been quick to point out that the ad offers no suggestion that the company sells cars. 

Responding to one user who posted on X asking 'where are the cars in this ad? Is this for fashion?, the company replied: 'Think of this as a declaration of intent'.

Others used posed similar questions, which was met with replies including: 'The story is unfolding. Stay tuned', and 'Consider this the first brushstroke'. 

More, including that Jaguar Bud Lite video.

Jaguar hits back at critics of new DEI rebrand ad that doesn't feature any cars | Daily Mail Online

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Trials for rapid-charging battery trains under way by Great Western Railway

13 November 2024

A trial by Great Western Railway (GWR) for rapid-charging battery trains is underway, as part of plans to phase out diesel engines.

The initiative was launched in February 2022, with the trials officially commencing in March this year after GWR engineers successfully tested the compatibility of fast-charge technology with Class 230 battery trains on the Greenford branch line in west London.

Trials are going ahead before they are due to be introduced in the Thames Valley, with those in west London expected to ride the new trains in the spring.

GWR told The Independent that its trial has now been running for nearly eight months, and the work has “successfully raised the profile of fast-charge technology as part of the potential solution to decarbonisation of lines that are difficult or expensive to reach through traditional electrification”.

“More than 430 return trips have been completed between West Ealing and Greenford, testing the technology’s capability in all weather conditions and temperatures.”

The trains have been converted from old Underground models and have been fitted with FastCharge technology to power them up in a matter of minutes before setting out on their journeys.

Trial manager Julian Fletcher explained to the BBC : "The train comes to a halt, and then the rails become powered, and then they charge up the train, and that all happens within the minutes it takes the driver to get out of one end and in the other."

He said a lot of tests were carried out successfully before the installation of the charging equipment, including some that "covered ice, snow, and all sorts of contamination".

During trials in February 2024, the fast-charge battery train set a new distance record in the UK by travelling 86 miles (138km) on battery power alone and without recharging.

The train was operating in a real-world environment, at speeds of up to 60mph, stopping and starting on a hill route with elevation changes of up to 200m.

GWR hopes that by implementing fast-charge technology it will be able to deliver more reliable trains capable of fulfilling timetable services.

It also hopes the technology will contribute to eliminating the use of diesel traction on the network, helping meet the Government’s and rail industry’s target to reach net-zero cargo emissions by 2050.

Using batteries could reduce GWR emissions alone by over 1,700 tons of CO2e per year, the operator said.

GWR Managing Director Mark Hopwood, said: “We want GWR to be at the forefront of the railway’s commitment to phase out diesel-only traction by 2040 and this demonstrates that we put our customers at the heart of everything we do.

“This is why we took on the challenge and are taking an industry-leading approach in not only battery train operation, but the development of the fast-charge system.

“It’s important to remember this work has never been done before. It’s designed to test the capability and viability of the fast-charge technology – and demonstrates Great Western Railway taking a bold and broad approach towards replacing diesel-only trains with greener units.”

The use of batteries has in the past been constrained by their range and power life.

The use of batteries could also negate the need for overhead electric lines that are expensive, time-consuming to install, and look unattractive.

GWR hopes that the fast charge technology could one day see battery-powered trains in operation across the UK’s approximately 2,000 miles of 80-plus branch lines.

GWR is using technology from hybrid train manufacturer Vivarail. After Vivarial entered administration in December 2022, GWR agreed on contracts to buy the intellectual property, rolling stock and FastCharge technology.

Trials for rapid-charging battery trains under way by Great Western Railway

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared. 

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The dumbest reason in the world to buy a stock is because it's going up.

Warren Buffett.

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