Baltic Dry Index. 1692 +62 Brent Crude 71.79
Spot Gold 2561 US 2 Year Yield 4.34 +0.07
Most of our imports come from other countries
George W. Bush.
Today, most likely, the US Federal Debt will hit 36 trillion. US GDP, 29.3 trillion. Bad things start happening relatively rapidly from here. Luckily for Donald Trump, China and most of Europe are in a similar predicament, albeit without trying to maintain the world’s leading, if Biden weaponised, fiat currency used in international trade.
That figure was $1 trillion when Ronald Reagan took office; $19 trillion by the time the Donald stumbled into the White House; stands at $36 trillion today; will top $60 trillion by the end of the next 10-yeaars based on current built-in spending and borrowing; would exceed $70 trillion by the same point (2034) under the sweeping tax cuts and spending increases already proposed by the Donald; and will hit $150 trillion by mid-century under the CBO’s latest Rosy Scenario outlook.
david stockman from David Stockmans Contra Corner<davidstockman@substack.com>
In the stock casinos, more wobble or have the casinos just run out of greater fool buyers? For Warren Buffett’s sake, hopefully not.
Asia markets mixed as investors assess China
economic data and Japan GDP after Wall Street falls
Updated Fri, Nov 15 2024 11:35 PM EST
Asia markets were mixed Friday as Wall
Street fell after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated
the central bank was in no rush to cut rates, with investors also
assessing China and Japan economic data.
Speaking in Dallas, Powell pointed out
that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in
deciding how far and how fast they should lower interest rates.
In Asia, investors assessed key economic
data from China on Friday, which included October numbers for retail sales,
industrial production and urban unemployment.
China’s retail sales rose more than
expected in October, while industrial production and investment data missed
forecasts.
The unemployment rate in cities fell to 5%
in October, down from 5.1% in September.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.62%,
while mainland China’s CSI 300 fell 0.2% after the data release.
Separately, Japan on Friday reported its
third-quarter GDP expanded 0.3% year-on-year, snapping two straight quarters of
year-on-year declines. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rose 0.2%, in line
with Reuters poll estimates.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.76%
after the GDP announcement, while the broad-based Topix rose 0.8% higher. The
yen weakened 0.2% against the U.S. dollar to 156.47.
In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi was 0.45% lower, and
the small-cap Kosdaq fell 0.97%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed
0.42%.
Overnight in the U.S., all three indexes
fell, with the Dow Jones
Industrial Average dropping 0.47%.
The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, while
the Nasdaq Composite pulled
back 0.64%.
So-called “Trump trades” also lost steam
as the market rally cooled. Tesla tumbled
5.8%, while the small-cap benchmark Russell 2000 dropped more
than 1%, underperforming the major averages.
Asia markets live: Powell comments, Japan GDP, China retail sales,
CNBC Daily Open: Powell’s comments drag investors
down to earth from postelection high
Published Thu, Nov 14 2024 8:11 PM EST
Postelection rally fades
U.S. markets fell on Thursday and are poised to end
the week lower. The so-called “Trump trades,” in particular, are fizzling
out. Europe’s regional Stoxx
600 climbed 1.08%, ending
a two-day losing streak. Shares of Burberry popped 18.7% after the British
luxury company announced a plan to overhaul
the brand.
Not in a hurry to cut
The U.S. Federal Reserve doesn’t need to be “in a hurry to lower rates,” Fed
Chair Jerome Powell said
Thursday. The economy is still strong, Powell noted, and October’s disappointing
jobs report was mostly because of hurricanes and labor strikes.
Powell’s slightly hawkish tone dampened market enthusiasm and lowered traders’
expectations for a December rate cut.
Wholesale prices edged up slightly
The U.S. producer
price index rose 0.2% in October, reported the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. Though that’s higher than the 0.1% increase in September, the
figure was in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast. Wholesale inflation
was at 2.4% for the year. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, came
in at 0.3%, matching expectations.
Disney pluses subscribers
Disney shares surged 6.2%
after reporting fiscal fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street’s
expectations. The media giant’s net
income jumped 74.2% year on year. That’s partly thanks to Disney+, its
streaming business, which finally turned profitable and added subscribers
during the recently concluded quarter.
---- The bottom line
After enjoying the postelection rally,
investors are turning their attention to issues like inflation and interest
rates again.
Consumer and wholesale price increases in
October, while coming in as expected, ticked up from the previous month,
indicating that there are still pockets of heat in the economy.
Still, the process of disinflation – in
which the rate of price increases slows down – is not a linear one. One month
of accelerating prices doesn’t necessarily mean inflation’s back.
As Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted, the job
of getting inflation to the central bank’s “two percent longer-run goal” could
be “on a sometimes-bumpy path.” And just as disinflation doesn’t travel in a
straight line, neither does the trajectory of interest rates. Powell added that
the Fed doesn’t need to be “in a hurry to lower rates” because the of “the
strength we are currently seeing in the economy.”
The hawkish slant of Powell’s comments
dramatically lowered traders’ bets of a December rate cut. The chance that the
Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting is now 58.6%,
compared with 82.5% earlier in the day, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
More
CNBC Daily Open: Powell’s comments drag investors down to earth
US debt ‘set to explode’ under Trump
November 14, 2024
America’s national debt is “set to
explode” under Donald Trump, top bankers at the Institute of International
Finance (IIF) have warned.
Analysts at the Washington-based institute
said the incoming president’s plan to slash taxes without equal cuts to
spending would push US national debt up from around 100pc of GDP today to more
than 135pc in a decade’s time.
Inflation is also likely to rise as Mr
Trump stokes spending and makes imports more expensive by slapping tariffs on
foreign-made goods.
The US national debt already stands at
close to $36 trillion (£28 trillion) and the IIF warned debts could reach more
than 150pc of GDP if Mr Trump’s tax cuts are more costly than expected for the
US treasury.
Mr Trump’s plans include making income
from overtime and from tips tax-free. Such policies will stimulate spending,
the IIF said, but will also reignite inflation.
The president-elect has said he wants to
raise taxes on imported goods, bringing in extra revenue for the treasury and,
hopefully, stimulating local manufacturing. However, this too will stoke
inflation by making overseas-made goods more expensive.
Such price pressure will likely force the
Federal Reserve to abandon its plans to cut interest rates, the IIF predicted,
keeping borrowing costs higher for longer.
Analysts said: “Recent rate cuts have been
part of the Fed’s strategy to support growth, yet the fiscal expansion under
Trump could force the Fed to reconsider this path, particularly if inflationary
risks emerge more rapidly than anticipated.”
Long-term borrowing costs have already
risen sharply in financial markets in anticipation of higher US debts and
higher-for-longer interest rates. The yield on 30-year treasurys, as US bonds
are known, has risen from a low of under 4pc in September to more than 4.5pc
today.
“The recent spike in the 30-year treasury
yield, in particular, signals investor concerns about the sustainability of an
expanding debt load and the potential for inflation as fiscal pressures mount,”
the IIF said.
More
US debt ‘set to explode’ under Trump
Finally, so you really, really, really want a fire risk EV.
‘Fastest-growing fire risk’: why do lithium batteries keep exploding across Australia?
14 November 2024
A faulty lithium-ion battery in an
e-scooter likely caused an intense garage and house fire in Sydney’s south on Tuesday, fire investigators have
found, the latest in a spate of incidents involving lithium-ion batteries.
In early November, a fire in an apartment
in New Farm in inner-city Brisbane is also believed by authorities to have been sparked by an
e-scooter battery. In March, batteries resulted in four separate fires in a single day in New South
Wales.
Fire and Rescue NSW has referred to
lithium-ion batteries as the “fastest-growing fire risk” in the state. The
agency responded to 272 battery-related fires last year – more than five each
week.
Related: Battery-powered electric vehicle sales plunge by 25% as
Australian drivers choose hybrid models
Fire services in both Victoria and
Queensland have said they respond to lithium-ion battery fires almost every day.
Why do lithium batteries keep exploding –
and what can be done to prevent fires?
What are lithium-ion batteries found in?
There are many different types of
lithium-ion batteries, says Prof Amanda Ellis, head of the school of chemical
and biomedical engineering at the University of Melbourne. “Overall, they’re
actually very safe if they’re operated correctly.”
Lithium-ion batteries are ubiquitous –
powering everything from mobile phones and computers to e-scooters, e-bikes and
electric cars. They are widely used because they are able to charge quickly,
deliver energy quickly and have long battery life.
The largest lithium-ion battery in
Australia, known as the Victorian Big Battery, is a 300 megawatt storage
battery in Geelong, which stores enough energy to power more than 1m homes for
half an hour.
Why do lithium-ion batteries catch on
fire?
Lithium-ion batteries, as the name
suggests, contains lithium ions suspended in an electrolyte solution. The ions
flow through the electrolyte, travelling back and forth between two electrodes
as the battery charges and discharges.
If a lithium-ion battery is charged too
fast, it can result in thermal runaway – an uncontrollable increase in
temperature. “The electrolyte heats up, because there’s too much energy in the
battery,” Ellis says. “It’s in a pressurised system, and so then all of a
sudden – bang … it’ll crack.” The liquid electrolyte is highly flammable and
will burst into flames when exposed to air.
Overheating and physical damage are the
main causes of battery failure.
Lithium-ion battery fires can reach high
temperatures within seconds and release highly toxic gases. Because of their
chemical components, burning batteries can develop self-sustaining flames that
are difficult to extinguish.
More
‘Fastest-growing fire risk’: why do lithium batteries keep exploding across Australia?
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
China
retail sales beat forecasts in October while real estate slump worsens
Published
Thu, Nov 14 2024 7:26 PM EST
BEIJING
— China on Friday reported strong growth in retail sales and a decline in real
estate investment in October, signaling that the country’s recent stimulus push
has already worked to bolster certain sectors of its flagging economy.
Retail
sales grew by 4.8% year-on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday.
That was above the 3.8% forecasted in a Reuters poll, and a pickup
from 3.2% growth in September.
Industrial
production rose by 5.3% from a year ago, missing expectations of 5.6% growth.
While fixed asset investment, reported on a year-to-date basis, rose by
3.4% from a year ago, slower than the 3.5% forecast.
Investment
in real estate for the January to October period fell by 10.3% from a year ago,
steeper than the 10.1% drop seen in the January to September period, as the
country’s property slump worsens.
It
was the sharpest decline since a 10.9% dive was reported for the year-to-date
period ending August 2021, according to official data accessed via Wind
Information.
National
Bureau of Statistics Spokesperson Fu Linghui, at a press conference on
Friday, reiterated China’s pledge in late September to halt the real
estate decline, and described the sector as seeing “active
improvement,” according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.
Looking
ahead, real estate investment will likely stabilize and recover slightly in the
next 12 to 18 months, said Bruce Pang, chief economist and
head of research for Greater China at JLL.
He
noted that sales of new properties narrowed their decline on a
year-to-date basis in October versus September. The value of new properties
sold fell by 20.9% in the first ten months of the year, better than the 22.7%
drop as of September.
More
China
October retail sales beat forecasts while real estate slump worsens
Wholesale
prices rose 0.2% in October, in line with expectations
Published
Thu, Nov 14 2024 8:39 AM EST
Wholesale
prices nudged higher in October, though largely in line with expectations and
consistent with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December,
the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.
The
producer price index, which measures what producers get for their products,
increased 0.2% for the month, up one-tenth of a percentage point from September
though matching the Dow Jones consensus forecast. On a 12-month basis, headline
wholesale inflation was at 2.4%.
Excluding
food and energy, core PPI rose 0.3%, also one-tenth more than September and
also matching expectations. The 12-month rate was at 3.1%.
Wholesale prices
rose 0.2% in October, in line with expectations
India’s
central bank chief warns growing risk of global inflation returning
Published
Thu, Nov 14 2024 3:56 AM EST
Central
banks have managed to engineer a soft landing through a period of “continual
and unprecedented shocks,” but there is still a risk of global inflation
returning and of economic growth slowing down, according to India’s central
bank chief.
Speaking
Thursday in Mumbai, India, at CNBC-TV18′s Global Leadership Summit, Reserve
Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said monetary policy from global
central banks had largely “performed well” in recent years despite conflicts,
geopolitical tensions and higher volatility.
“A
soft landing has been ensured but risks of inflation — as I speak to you here
today — risks of inflation coming back and growth slowing down do remain,” Das
said.
“The
headwinds from the geopolitical conflicts, geoeconomic fragmentation, commodity
price volatility and climate change continue to grow.”
Das
pointed to several contradictions in global markets to underline his view,
including the appreciation of the U.S. dollar, even as the Federal Reserve is cutting
interest rates.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures
the currency against six top counterparts including the euro and
yen, added 0.2% to 106.71 as of 8:45 a.m. London time on Thursday,
briefly notching its highest level since November last year.
It
comes as investors and economists scrutinize what
President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House could mean for U.S.
interest rates.
The
prospect of higher trade tariffs and tighter immigration policy under a second
Trump presidential term is expected to fuel inflation, which could in
turn put the brakes on the Fed’s
rate-cutting cycle over the longer term.
The
Fed delivered its second
consecutive interest rate cut earlier in the month, in line with expectations,
and traders see a decent chance of another
trim in December.
Divergent
themes in global markets
“Government
bond yields are rising even as many advanced economies have embarked upon an
easing path through rate cuts, underscoring the fact that Treasury markets are
influenced by a host of global and domestic factors that are much beyond mere
policy adjustments,” Das said.
More
India’s central
bank chief warns over growing global inflation risks
German Investor Confidence Slumps on Political
Strife, Trump Win
November 13, 2024
(Bloomberg) -- Investor confidence in
Germany’s economy unexpectedly worsened in November after a spate of bad news
from the country’s industry, the collapse of the three-party government and the
election of Donald Trump.
An expectations index by the ZEW institute
fell to 7.4 from 13.1 the previous month. Economists had forecast an increase
to 13.2. A measure of current conditions also saw a surprise downturn in the
survey, which was conducted Nov. 4-11.
“Economic expectations for Germany are
influenced by Trump’s victory and the end of the coalition,” ZEW President
Achim Wambach said Tuesday in a statement. “In the last few days of the survey
period, however, more optimistic voices are also becoming increasingly vocal
about the economic outlook for Germany due to the likelihood of early
elections.”
The prospect for Europe’s biggest economy
have darkened recently, with the manufacturing sector struggling to
escape prolonged
malaise and
automakers in particular bracing for new threats including possible tariffs
promised by US President-elect Trump.
With Volkswagen AG even discussing
unprecedented plant closures in its home country, such troubles are also
already hurting its supply chain, with parts makers Schaeffler AG and ZF
Friedrichshafen AG planning thousands of job cuts.
Germany’s economy surprisingly dodged a
recession by growing 0.2% in the third quarter, but the reading for the
previous three months was revised down sharply and another full-year contraction still
appears likely.
Adding to the gloom is heightened
political uncertainty, after Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s shock dismissal of
Finance Minister Christian Lindner last week. The governing Social Democrats
and opposition lawmakers reached an agreement to hold an early federal election
on Feb. 23, according to government officials familiar with the talks.
According to the Ifo Institute, German
businesses are struggling to clinch orders. In
October, 41.5% of companies reported that problem, up from 39.4% in July, it
said on Monday. That’s the highest level since the global financial crisis in
2009.
“The lack of orders is continuing to
hinder economic development in Germany,” said Klaus Wohlrabe, head of surveys
at Ifo. “Hardly any industry has been spared.” In manufacturing, nearly half of
all companies reported insufficient demand.
Some support for the economy is on the way
from monetary policy, with the European Central Bank widely expected to lower
borrowing costs for a fourth time this year at its rate meeting next month.
German Investor Confidence Slumps on Political Strife, Trump Win
I'm for a stronger death penalty.
George W. Bush.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Excess mortality during COVID-19
·
How is excess
mortality measured?
·
Excess mortality
P-scores by age group
·
Excess mortality
using raw death counts
·
Estimated excess
mortality from The Economist
·
Estimated excess
mortality from the World Health Organization
·
Excess mortality: our
data sources
·
Excess mortality
during COVID-19: background
What is ‘excess mortality’?
Excess mortality is a term used in epidemiology and
public health that refers to the number of deaths from all causes during
a crisis above and beyond what we would have expected to see under ‘normal’
conditions.1 In
this case, we’re interested in how the number of deaths during the COVID-19
pandemic compares to the deaths we would have expected had the pandemic not
occurred — a crucial quantity that cannot be known but can be estimated
in several ways.
Excess mortality is a more comprehensive measure of the total impact
of the pandemic on deaths than the confirmed COVID-19 death count alone. It
captures not only the confirmed deaths, but also COVID-19 deaths that were not
correctly diagnosed and reported2 as
well as deaths from other causes that are attributable to the
overall crisis conditions.3
More
Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) - Our World in Data
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, Europe’s EV bust. Approx. 10
minutes.
Europe's
EV Factories Are Falling Apart – And It's Worse Than It Seems
Europe's EV Factories Are Falling Apart – And It's Worse Than It Seems -
YouTube
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and
an iffy weekend at that. For how much longer will the world trade in fiat
dollars created out of nothing at the push of a computer button somewhere in
Washington, District of Crooks? Have a great weekend everyone.
If you
don't succeed, you run the risk of failure.
George
W. Bush.
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