Baltic
Dry Index. 1374 -04 Brent Crude 75.08
Spot Gold 2732 US 2 Year Yield 4.17 -0.04
Iran is planning a
counterattack on Israel involving
more powerful warheads and other weapons, the
Wall Street Journal reported. Tehran told allies an attack would come
after the US vote but before January’s inauguration. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office is accused
of leaking classified documents to thwart a Gaza
cease-fire.
Polls Show Tight Finish in US Elections - Bloomberg [Christmas? New Year’s Day?]
In the global stock casinos, more wobble. What if Warren Buffett is right to be selling out of over priced stocks?
What if Harris or Trump become the next US President in mid-January?
What if 2024 was as good as it got before the Great Recession/Depression of 2025-2030?
What if Iran retaliates on New Year’s Day against Israel?
But for today, the final act (hopefully,) in the great American black comedy of US elections.
Tomorrow will not be like today, which was like yesterday, ominously comes to mind.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors eye
Fed; RBA holds rates
Updated Tue, Nov 5 2024 10:44 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on
Tuesday as investors prepared for the U.S. presidential election and a possible
interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this week.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.11%, while
the Topix gained 0.73%. South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.17%, while the Kosdaq rose
0.2%. The country’s consumer inflation in October rose 1.3%
from a year ago, slightly cooler than Reuters’ expectations of 1.4%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.98%.
China’s CSI 300 rose 1.53%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slid
0.56%. The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady
at 4.35% for the eighth meeting in a row, in line with Reuters’ expectations.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped
257.59 points, or 0.61%, to close at 41,794.60. The S&P 500 dipped 0.28% to
settle at 5,712.69, and the Nasdaq
Composite dropped 0.33% to 18,179.98.
The moves in stocks Monday came as
safe-haven U.S. Treasurys rallied, suggesting that some investors may be
reducing risk ahead of Election Day.
In
addition to the election, Wall Street is preparing for the Federal
Reserve’s upcoming rate decision on Thursday. According to CME Group’s FedWatch
Tool, traders anticipate a 99% chance of a quarter-point
rate cut at the end of the central bank’s policy meeting, following a
half-percentage-point reduction in September.
Asia markets live updates: RBA decision, South Korea CPI
European markets set for lackluster open as
traders focus on U.S. Election Day
Updated Tue, Nov 5 20241 2:29 AM EST
European stocks are heading for a
lackluster start to the trading day as global markets gear up for the U.S.
presidential election Tuesday, with the vote too close to call between former
President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected
to open 15 points lower at 8,177, Germany’s DAX down 12 points at
19,149, France’s CAC down
1 point at 7,374 and Italy’s FTSE
MIB up 73 points at 34,358, according to data from IG.
Earnings are set to come from Saudi
Aramco, Adecco, Schaeffler, Deutsche Post DHL, Zalando, Hugo Boss, Bouygues,
Ørsted, Vestas Wind and Fresenius Medical Care.
Market attention will be focused on which
party dominates Congress as a result of the U.S. election, given that a sweep
by Republicans or Democrats could contribute to drastic spending changes or a
big revamp of tax policy. Follow
CNBC’s 2024 election live blog here.
In
addition to the election, Wall Street is preparing for the Federal
Reserve’s upcoming rate decision on Thursday. According to CME Group’s FedWatch
Tool, traders anticipate a 99% chance of a quarter-point
rate cut at the end of the central bank’s policy meeting, following a
half-percentage-point reduction in September.
Asia-Pacific
markets traded mixed overnight, while U.S. stock futures were
flat.
Europe markets set for lackluster open; traders focus on U.S. election
In other news.
Beijing files complaint at WTO over EU tariffs on
Chinese electric vehicles
4 November 2024
China has moved forward with a complaint
at the World Trade Organisation that alleges the European Union has improperly
set anti-subsidy tariffs on new Chinese-made electric vehicles.
The Chinese diplomatic mission to the WTO
said on Monday it “strongly opposes” the measures and insisted its move was
designed to protect the EV industry and support a global transition toward
greener technologies.
The European bloc announced last month it
was imposing import duties of up to 35% on electric vehicles from China,
alleging the Chinese exports were unfairly undercutting EU industry prices.
The duties are set to remain in force for
five years, unless an amicable deal can be struck.
Electric vehicles have become a major
flashpoint in a broader trade dispute over the influence of Chinese government
subsidies on European markets and Beijing’s burgeoning exports of green
technology to the bloc.
China alleged that the EU move amounted to
“an abuse of trade remedies” that violates WTO rules, and amounted to
“protectionist” measures, according to the mission’s statement.
Valdis Dombrovskis, the executive vice
president of the EU’s Commission, last week called the steps “proportionate and
targeted” and were aimed to underpin fair market practices and support the
bloc’s industrial base.
Beijing files complaint at WTO over EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles
Boeing machinists end over seven-week strike,
approve new labor contract with 38% wage increases
Published Mon, Nov 4 2024 7:43 AM EST
Boeing machinists
approved a new labor deal Monday, ending a more than seven-week strike that
halted most of the aircraft production at the company that was already
struggling with mounting losses.
Machinists voted 59% in favor of the new
contract, which includes 38% wage increases over four years and other
improvements.
The approval is a relief for Boeing’s new
CEO Kelly Ortberg, who took the top job in August to steer the company through
its safety and manufacturing crises.
President Joe Biden congratulated the
union and the company — one of the country’s top exporters — on reaching the
deal. Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su had gotten involved with the
negotiations, meeting with both sides.
“This contract provides a 38% wage
increase over four years, improves workers’ ability to retire with dignity, and
supports fairness at the workplace,” Biden said in a statement. “This contract
is also important for Boeing’s future as a critical part of America’s aerospace
sector.”
Third vote
It was the machinists’ third vote since
September, when the 33,000 workers, mostly in the Seattle area, walked off the
job after overwhelmingly rejecting a proposal promising a 25% raise, far short
of the 40% the union sought. They rejected another sweetened proposal late last
month.
Union urged approval
“This is a victory. We can hold our heads
high,” said International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers
District 751 President Jon Holden as he announced the results late Monday.
The machinists, who build planes such as
the bestselling 737 Max, 777 and 767 aircraft must return to their jobs no
later than Nov. 12 the union said. They could return as early as Wednesday.
Boeing said machinist pay will average
$119,309 at the end of this contract proposal. The first wage increase will be
13%. The contract also increases 401(k) contributions and a signing bonus of up
to $12,000 or a combination of a $7,000 bonus and $5,000 401(k) deposit.
Workers had complained about the
skyrocketing cost of living in the Seattle area, where most of Boeing’s
aircraft are produced.
More
Boeing machinists end strike, approve labor contract with 38% wage hike
German industrial energy use falls due to drop in
output
4 November 2024
German industrial energy consumption fell
significantly last year, in part due to decreased production in
energy-intensive sectors, the Federal Statistical Office reported on Monday.
Consumption dropped by 7.8% to 3,282
petajoules in 2023. The previous year, industrial energy consumption had fallen
by 9.1% already.
"The decline in industrial energy
consumption was directly linked to falling production in 2023. Energy-intensive
sectors were particularly affected, with production falling by 11.2%," the
statistical office stated.
The most widely used industrial energy
source remained natural gas, at 28% - despite a notable reduction. This was
ahead of electricity, oil and oil derivatives, and coal.
Chemical industry leads the pack
The industrial sector with the highest
energy consumption in 2023 was once again the chemical industry, with a share
of 26.5% of overall industrial energy consumption. This was followed by metal
production and processing at 23.9% and coking and mineral oil processing at
10.3%.
In the chemical sector, however, almost a
third of the energy sources (31.6%) were used as raw materials for chemical
products rather than for power generation.
The German chemical industry, suffering
from increased energy prices, suffered an 11% drop in production in 2023.
Production is expected to rise again by 3.5% this year, according to the VCI
industry association.
German industrial energy prices are high
by international comparison, with price fluctuations impacted by the war on
Ukraine led by Russia, previously the country's dominant supplier of natural
gas.
German industrial energy use falls due to drop in output
German government descends into crisis mode
4 November 2024
Give up or rescue what can still be saved?
This is the choice faced by the center-left government of Social Democrats
(SPD), Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) which has been in office for
almost three years. The three parties have always been at loggerheads because
many of their core policies are substantially different: The SPD and Greens
believe in strong state and debt-financed policies. The FDP takes the opposite
view.
Initial common ground was quickly
exhausted. The give and take that is necessary for a coalition is now becoming
increasingly difficult.
The situation has recently escalated
around economic and budgetary policy. A ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court around a year ago exposed
the rifts between the coalition partners. Back then, Germany's highest court
ruled against the government's plans to reallocate money earmarked but never
spent from a cache of debt taken out to mitigate the fallout of the COVID-19
pandemic. The money was instead earmarked for the government's climate action
budget. The court ruling left the budget €60 billion ($65 bio) short.
Since then, all three coalition partners
have been trying to raise their own profile at the expense of the others,
publicizing proposals that had not even been discussed with their partners.
Now, Germany is in a recession and tax
revenues have fallen, which will tear an additional hole into state coffers.
Last month, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD)
held an industry summit with leading entrepreneurs and industrial trade union
members but did not invite his Vice-Chancellor, the Green Party's Economy
Minister Robert Habeck or Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who is also
chairman of the business-oriented FDP.
Linder then organized his own meeting with
other business representatives, Habeck responded by proposing a billion-euro,
debt-financed fund to promote investment by companies.
More
German government descends into crisis mode
Finally, yet another EV fire.
Fire engulfs southeast Missouri lithium-ion battery plant, one of world's largest
November 1, 2024
Residents of a southeast Missouri town
were forced to evacuate their homes Wednesday when a fire erupted at a nearby
battery recycler.
Madison County 911 posted on Facebook
around 2 p.m. on behalf of the county sheriff’s office telling residents north
and west of Fredericktown to leave the area.
“If you can see or smell smoke in this
area, you need to evacuate!” the post says.
In
a separate post later in the afternoon, Madison County 911 and the Fredericktown
Fire Department said only residents on Madison County Road 277 needed to
evacuate. The county urged other residents to shelter in place. The post said
the city of Fredericktown was not affected by the order.
“Close windows, doors and turn off window
AC systems,” the post says. “… Again, if you see smoke, stay indoors.”
Around 7:45 p.m., an emergency dispatcher
told The Independent crews were still fighting the fire.
Photos
posted on Facebook by Madison County 911 show Critical Mineral Recovery, one
of the world’s largest lithium-ion battery processing facilities, with a hole
in its partially collapsed roof. Smoke billowed from the charred building and a
slight glow of remnant fire could be seen inside.
According to the company’s website, the
plant processes electric vehicle and consumer-grade lithium-ion batteries and
retrieves valuable metals and minerals, including copper, nickel, cobalt,
lithium, manganese and aluminum. The recycled materials can be used to build
new batteries.
The fire erupted in spite of what the
company’s website calls “likely the most sophisticated automated and remote
supervised and controlled fire suppression systems in the world.”
“The state-of-the-art fire prevention
system is designed to detect fires before they start,” the company’s site says.
“The system covers all areas where battery materials are stored or processed.
It is monitored remotely 24/7 employing high-intensity industrial forward
looking infrared … camera technology.”
County officials, the Missouri State
Emergency Management Agency, the Missouri Department of Natural Resources and
the company could not be immediately reached for comment.
Fire engulfs southeast Missouri lithium-ion battery plant, one of world's largest
"I'm a socialist drinker!" The bartender chuckled and asked, "Don't you mean social drinker?"
"No, I only drink when someone else is paying."
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Poor
GB, when economic socialist Chancellors get out of their depth.
Child: When I grow up I want to be a socialist.
Parent: You can’t do both.
Reeves’s
Budget tax raid prompts record stampede from stock market
4
November 2024
Rachel
Reeves’s tax grab sparked a record exodus from the stock market last month as
investors raced to withdraw their cash.
Investors
sold down a net £2.7bn of their holdings in equity funds in October – the
highest amount ever recorded – with Brits pulling money out of every category
of fund.
That
followed a move by savers to withdraw
cash in September,
which marked the first net outflows in 11 months, according to data from fund
network Calastone.
The
figures highlight the chilling effect of the Labour
Government’s first Budget after the Chancellor confirmed increases to
capital gains tax, with the rate paid by basic-rate taxpayers rising from 10pc
to 18pc and from 20pc to 24pc for higher-rate taxpayers.
Capital
gains tax is paid by savers every time a stock or unit in an equity fund is
sold, unless they are sheltered through an individual savings account (Isa).
Sell
orders on equity funds surged by 36pc month on month to a record £17bn in the
four weeks leading up to the Budget as savers attempted to crystallise a profit
and pay less tax.
But
outflows stopped completely on Budget day when the higher tax rates came into
immediate effect. Sell orders dropped 40pc overnight, according to Calastone.
At
the same time, buying activity also rose sharply as some chose to reinvest the
proceeds of their sales, but it was not enough to outpace the wave of selling.
Edward
Glyn, head of global markets at Calastone, said: “Fears of a capital gains tax
grab in last week’s Budget spurred investors to book their profits and
crystallise a lower tax bill well before the Chancellor rose to her feet in the
Commons.
“Unease
in September meant the early birds took flight first, but by October investors
were flocking for the exits.”
UK
assets were by far the hardest hit by the stampede. More than one third (£988m)
of the total outflows was pulled from funds focused on UK equities, making
October the fourth worst month on record for the sector.
The
sell down is likely to prompt more fears about the health of the London market.
Analysts have complained
about a “doom loop” for
the stock exchange, with the value of UK companies declining due to a surge of
investors bailing out of British stocks.
More
Reeves’s Budget tax raid prompts record stampede from stock market
Bank
of England set to lower interest rates as Budget dampens bets for 2025
Sunday
03 November 2024 2:29 pm
The
Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates this week,
while markets are betting on fewer cuts next year after forecasts suggested the
new government’s first Budget will push up inflation.
Analysts
predict members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will vote to cut the
central bank’s base rate by a quarter-point to 4.75 per cent at their next
meeting on Thursday.
Official
figures last month boosted hopes of a cut as inflation fell to 1.7 per cent,
its lowest level since April 2021, and stickier services inflation also
dropped.
Meanwhile,
data showed wage growth eased again to its lowest
level in two years.
Average pay growth, excluding bonuses, fell to 4.9 per cent in the three months
to August, down from 5.1 per cent in the previous quarter.
The
Bank cut rates in August for the first time since March 2020 but opted to leave
them on hold in September.
Policymakers
appear to be taking a cautious approach to easing monetary policy, with
inflation expected to rise over the coming months amid increases in household
energy prices and oil price shocks caused by conflict in the Middle East.
Another
cut in December is therefore considered unlikely, and the Budget has spurred
markets to further dial
back their expectations.
Investors
now predict fewer than four quarter-point cuts next year, compared to almost
five before the Autumn Statement.
The Office for Budget
Responsibility (OBR)
said last week that the sharp increase in spending from the Budget would
contribute to higher inflation and put pressure on interest rates.
Chancellor
Rachel Reeves announced nearly
£70bn of extra annual spending, funded by tax hikes focused on
businesses and additional borrowing.
“Though
a November interest rate cut looks nailed on, the upward pressure on inflation
from higher business costs resulting from the Budget may mean that the rate
cutting cycle over the next year is slower than many expect,” Suren Thiru,
economics director at the ICAEW, told City AM.
Thomas
Pugh, an economist at the consultancy RSM, said: “We doubt the MPC will want to
signal that faster rate cuts are on the way.
“After
all, there is a significant split on the committee between doves and hawks, and
the Budget has changed the outlook for inflation next year.”
The
OBR predicts inflation to average 2.5 per cent this year and 2.6 per cent in
2025 before coming down, assuming “the Bank of England responds”.
“Any
reaction to the Autumn Budget will be carefully pored over as
part of the November forecast round,” said Sanjay Raja, chief UK
economist at Deutsche Bank.
“Indeed,
the MPC will have had the chance to fully digest the contents of the
Budget, incorporating it fully into its projections.”
More
Bank of England set to lower interest rates as Budget dampens bets for 2025
What did Communist Cuba use before candles?
Electricity!
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Vaccine
review Approx. 9 minutes.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Historic
Starship booster capture was a second from a fiery end
By David Szondy October 27, 2024
As the world watched
slack-jawed while SpaceX's Super Heavy booster made the world's first tower capture landing after boosting
the Starship 5 mission into orbit, few knew that the event came within one
second of disaster.
The capture of the Super
Heavy first stage of the giant Starship rocket was one of those space events
that I'm likely to remember exactly where I was for the rest of my life.
Whatever good or bad could be said about the Starship program or its future, this
was a moment that was firmly grounded in history as the gigantic booster,
larger than that of the Saturn V rocket's first stage, made a controlled,
powered approach to the Mechzilla tower that launched it and now cradled it in
equally gigantic steel arms.
However, we now know that the
capture came within a heartbeat of being aborted and the Super Heavy came
incredibly close to crashing on the desert floor.
In one of the most remarkably
casual disclosures in space history, SpaceX founder Elon Musk posted a message
on X (formerly Twitter) with an insert video capture of him playing a computer
game. What's incredible is that while playing Musk was talking shop with an
unnamed member of his staff.
The topic of discussion?
Starship 5.
During the conversation, a
man said, "I want to be really upfront about the scary sh** that happened
and what we're doing about it because I think that’s our focus – getting to
Flight Six."
He then went on to say that,
"We were one second away from [a misconfigured spin gas abort] tripping,
which would have told the rocket to abort and try to crash into the ground next
to the tower instead of attempting to land on the tundra."
According to the post, there
was a go/no go abort error that, had it been implemented, would have told the
flight control system that something was wrong with the perfectly healthy
rocket and initiated an abort protocol. Ideally, this would have caused the
Super Heavy to fly out to sea or land in the desert, but in this case, it would
have resulted in a fiery crash at the SpaceX spaceport in Boca Chica, Texas.
Such aborts are common in the
complex exercise of a space mission and the speaker admitted that they had
encountered "100 aborts that were not exactly trivial" that almost
caused a delay of Starship Flight 5. He went on to say that a thorough review
would be needed before Flight 6, which already has FAA approval. This frees up
the company to handle preparations its own way instead of in coordination with
the US government.
Source: SpaceX
Historic Starship booster capture was a second from a fiery end
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
A
Communist, Socialist and Capitalist all agree to meet at a cafe.
The
Communist and the Capitalist arrive on time but the Socialist is late.
A hour later, the Socialist rushes in.
'Sorry I'm late guys' he said, 'I had to wait in line for a sausage'.
'What's a line?' asked the Capitalist.
'What's a sausage?' asked the Communist
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