Baltic
Dry Index. 1509 -72 Brent Crude 72.74
Spot Gold 2633 US 2 Year Yield 4.19 -0.02
The history of government management of money has, except for a few short happy periods, been one of incessant fraud and deception.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
In the global stock casinos, the calm before the Trumpian storm?
The more I see of the global economy, the more I think Warren Buffett is wise to be selling out of stocks into a rising market and raising cash.
Asia markets mostly rise as investors assess South
Korea’s surprise interest rate cut
Updated Thu, Nov 28 2024 12:53 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly higher
on Thursday after Wall Street rally stalled overnight and as investors assessed
a surprise interest rate cut by South Korea.
The U.S. personal consumption expenditure
price index, or PCE, rose
2.3% on an annualized basis, accelerating from 2.1% in September. The
so-called core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, climbed 2.8%
in the 12 months through October, up from 2.7% in the previous month.
Both matched the expectations from
economists polled by Reuters, according to LSEG data.
The Bank of Korea unexpectedly cut its
benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.0%. Market watchers polled by
Reuters had forecast the BOK to pause its policy easing this month, following a
25 bps cut in October.
South Korea’s blue-chip Kospi index traded
flat while the small-cap Kosdaq climbed 0.39%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 ticked up by 0.73%,
while the broad-based Topix added 0.81%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 jumped 0.45%
to a new record close of 8,444.3.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined
1.32%, giving back gains after logging its largest jump this month on
Wednesday. Mainland China’s CSI 300 index was down by 0.60%.
Overnight in the U.S., declines in big
technology names pulled markets lower in a thin trading session.
Chipmaking powerhouse Nvidia lost more
than 1%, while Meta Platforms slid 0.8%. Dell and HP dropped more than 12% and
11%, respectively, following weak earnings forecasts.
The S&P 500 declined 0.38% to
5,998.74, snapping a seven-day winning streak. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.6%
to end at 19,060.48. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average lost 138.25 points, or 0.31%, to finish at
44,722.06, reversing course gaining more than 140 points.
The U.S. market will be closed on Thursday
for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Asia-Pacific markets live updates: Bank of Korea rate, US PCE
European markets head for higher open; U.S.
markets are closed for Thanksgiving
Updated Thu, Nov 28 2024 12:46 AM EST
European markets are expected to open
higher Thursday, rallying after being in the doldrums yesterday.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected
to open 16 points higher at 8,291, Germany’s DAX up 72 points at 19,334,
France’s CAC up 30
points at 7,173 and Italy’s FTSE
MIB up 98 points at 33,310, according to data from IG.
There are no major earnings Thursday, but
data releases include Spanish and German inflation and European economic
sentiment figures. Italian and Spanish business confidence data is also due.
It’ll be a quieter day globally with U.S.
markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday; U.S. stocks fell in light trading
on Wednesday ahead of the holiday. Asia-Pacific markets traded
mixed overnight as investors assessed a surprise interest rate cut by South
Korea.
European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings
In other news.
Trump Policies Seen Endangering US Economic Gains
November 27, 2024 at 10:45 PM GMT
The US Federal Reserve’s preferred measure
of underlying inflation accelerated in October from a year ago. The so-called
core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out volatile
food and energy items, increased 2.8% from October last year and 0.3% from a
month earlier (a good part of that acceleration however was due to the impact
of higher stock prices on the calculation).
While inflation is taking time to recede
back to the Fed’s 2% target, the policy path ahead will be complicated by
Donald Trump’s economic agenda, which many economists warn will reverse
America’s multiyear climb out of the pandemic recession while reigniting
inflation. Indeed, Trump’s plans—despite his promises to lower US fuel
costs—are seen as causing a spike in US gasoline prices by as much as 50 cents a gallon come summer. And if
you’re looking to buy that special someone a power drill for Christmas, better
do it now: Stanley Black & Decker said it’s already considering raising prices in anticipation of the
president-elect’s promised tariffs.
What You Need to Know Today
While Trump ran for
re-election on the promise of lowering prices for consumers still bruised by
inflation, Goldman Sachs says the 78-year-old Republican’s threats of Canadian tariffs will accomplish the exact opposite. US residents face
“significant consequences” from his proposed 25% duty on America’s closest ally, said Daan Struyven,
the bank’s head of commodities research. Trump’s other neighborhood target,
Mexico, is ramping up its warnings to Americans: Mexico’s
economic minister cautioned that tariffs would cost the US as many as 400,000 jobs. And beyond their warnings, both countries
are readying retaliation, too.
More
Trump Policies Seen Endangering US Economic Gains: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
Prices are rising again as inflation decreases
stall out
27 November 2024
Consumer price increases accelerated last
month, the latest sign that inflation's steady decline over the past two years
has stalled in recent months.
According to the Federal
Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, consumer prices rose 2.3% in
October from a year earlier, the Commerce
Department said Wednesday. That is up from just 2.1% in September,
though it is still only modestly above the Fed's 2% target.
Yet excluding the volatile food and energy
categories, so-called "core" prices also picked up, climbing 2.8%
last month from a year earlier, up from 2.7% in September, according to
Commerce's personal consumption expenditures price index. Economists closely
watch core prices because they typically provide a better read on where
inflation is headed.
Inflation has fallen sharply since it
peaked at 7% in mid-2022, according to the Fed's preferred measure. Yet yearly
core inflation has fluctuated between 2.6% and 2.8% since February. Price
increases have remained elevated in services, including apartment rents,
restaurant meals, and car and home insurance.
The elevated reading could make the
Federal Reserve less likely to cut its key rate at the next meeting in
December. Next month's inflation data, some of which will be issued a week
before the meeting, may play a key role in the Fed's decision.
"This report will likely provide
further ammo to Fed officials who prefer to lower rates gradually," Omair
Sharif, chief economist at Inflation Insights, wrote in a client note,
"and may strengthen the argument for a pause at the December FOMC
meeting."
Many economists, however, expect that the
Fed will reduce its rate by a quarter-point in December, then delay further
cuts while gauging the impact of the reductions they've made so far.
"The momentum in inflation toward the
Fed's 2% target has sputtered recently but not enough, in our view, to prevent
the Fed from cutting interest rates in December," Ryan Sweet, chief U.S.
economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a client note.
Last month, grocery prices barely rose and
gas costs fell, providing some relief to household budgets. Prices at the pump
have continued to decline since October, reaching a nationwide average of $3.07
a gallon Wednesday, down six cents from a month earlier, according to AAA.
Used car and truck prices, however, shot
up 2.8% from September to October, though they are still 5% lower than a year
ago. Air fares jumped 1.5% just last month and have risen 5.1% from a year
earlier, while hotel room prices rose 0.5% from September to October.
Restaurant prices moved up 0.3% in October and 3.6% from a year earlier. All
the yearly increases are higher than they were pre-pandemic.
Wednesday's report also underscored that
Americans' incomes and spending remained healthy, a key reason the economy has
kept growing this year despite widespread fears of a slowdown. Incomes grew
0.6% from September to October, faster than economists had expected, while
consumer spending rose by a solid 0.4% last month.
President-elect Donald Trump's victory
could also slow Fed rate cuts. His proposals to cut taxes and reduce government
regulation could spur faster growth, but could also overheat the economy and
lift inflation. And his threats to impose widespread tariffs, if carried out,
would likely push up prices.
The Fed had signaled it would cut rates
four times next year, but financial markets now expect just two reductions.
Prices are rising again as inflation decreases stall out
China’s industrial profits fall by 10% in October
as deflation worries linger
Published Tue, Nov 26 2024 8:44 PM EST Updated
Wed, Nov 27 2024 12:17 AM EST
China’s industrial profits dropped by 10%
in October from a year ago, in another sign that Beijing’s stimulus measures
have yet to reverse a slump in corporate earnings.
That marked the third straight month of
the profits decline, following a 27.1% year-on-year plunge in
September, the steepest decrease since March 2020. Industrial profits are a key
gauge of the financial health of factories, mines and utilities in China.
In the first ten months, profits at
China’s industrial firms decreased by 4.3% from a year ago, the
National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement Wednesday. That was
compared with a
fall of 3.5% in
the period through September.
The statistics bureau attributed the
smaller decline in October to the implementation of Beijing’s stimulus
measures. “Most industries showed improved profitability from the previous
month, particularly helped by the equipment and high-tech manufacturing
sector,” NBS statistician Yu Weining said.
“The deceleration in the decline of
industrial profits reflects a gradual stabilizing of Chinese economic
conditions, albeit at a low base,” said Eugene Hsiao, head of China equity
strategy at Macquarie Capital, adding that the trend coincided with “a degree
of one-off demand” as local exporters rushed out shipments to the U.S. ahead of
expected higher tariffs.
He expects further fiscal support from
Beijing next year to have a more meaningful impact on lifting corporate
earnings.
State-owned firms recorded a 8.2% decline
in profits in the January to October period, while private enterprises saw
profits drop by 1.3%.
Foreign industrial firms, which include
those with investments from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, saw profits climb
marginally by 0.9% in the first ten months, from a year ago.
Recent data indicates that Beijing’s
latest stimulus measures have already helped some sectors of the economy, but
not enough to offset persistent deflationary pressures.
China’s consumer
price index in October rose slower than expected, edging
up 0.3% from
a year ago, marking the slowest rise since June. Meanwhile, producer price
index fell 2.9% on year, showing that deflation deepened from the 2.8% drop in
the prior month.
The country’s industrial
production also grew slower than expected. Among fixed asset investment,
real estate declined by 10.3% for the year through October, a sharper decline
than the 10.1% seen in the period through September.
More
China's industrial profits fall by 10% in October as deflation worries linger
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
For
employees willing to relocate to Ellesmere Port, Stellantis is offering support
packages and “attractive terms.” Plus, the expansion is set to create hundreds
of permanent jobs at the upgraded facility.
Well
maybe, but what if after moving your family a few hundred miles, next year they
decide to close the Ellesmere Port factory?
Car
Giant Shuts Down Another European Factory
Big
changes are on the horizon for Stellantis, the world’s fourth-largest carmaker,
as the company announces plans to close its Luton factory in England. This
plant, which has long been a hub for van production for Stellantis’ European
brands, is now set to wind down operations.
But
this isn’t just a story about shutting doors.
Stellantis
is doubling down on its factory in Ellesmere Port, which is set to become the
company’s central hub for light van production in the UK. And they’re
committing an additional £50 million to expand and upgrade the facility.
As
reported by Top Gear, Stellantis is promising a responsible
transition for its Luton employees.
“While
Ellesmere Port is being strengthened as a sustainable hub for light commercial
vehicle production in the UK with the transfer of operations from Luton, the
company remains committed to acting responsibly towards its employees in
Luton,” the company said in a statement.
For
employees willing to relocate to Ellesmere Port, Stellantis is offering support
packages and “attractive terms.” Plus, the expansion is set to create hundreds
of permanent jobs at the upgraded facility.
The
Luton plant’s future has been under scrutiny for a while.
Earlier
this year, there were plans to start producing electric vans there by 2025.
However, in October, Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares hinted that a decision on
the company’s two UK factories was imminent—leaving Luton hanging in the
balance.
One
big factor behind the closure is the UK government’s Zero Emission Vehicle
(ZEV) mandate, which sets ambitious targets for electric vehicle production.
Automakers are required to make 22% of their vehicles electric by 2024, with
that figure skyrocketing to 80% by 2030.
These
rules have sparked calls for flexibility, with some manufacturers even urging a
complete rollback.
Car
Giant Shuts Down Another European Factory
What To Expect From November’s CPI Inflation Report
Nov
26, 2024,11:10am EST
The
Consumer Price Index report for November will be released on December 11.
Inflation is down substantially from peak levels, the key question is when and
if inflation will hit the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target.
Inflation
nowcasting from the Cleveland
Federal Reserve.
suggests that headline inflation may see another increase to a 2.7% annual
rate, that would be an acceleration from October’s 2.6%. Core inflation, which
excludes food and energy, may remain at 3.3%. That would be the same level as
October. The November CPI report may not be particularly reassuring to the Fed,
but the jobs market will remain a significant factor in its thinking, too.
Currently the Fed is expected to
cut interest rates in 2025, but at a measured pace. The Fed has cut interest
rates at their two most recent meetings.
The
Potential Impact Of Tariffs On Inflation
Recently,
President-Elect Donald Trump has stated that he intends to impose
tariffs on
China, Mexico and Canada in January 2025. Such tariffs, if imposed, are likely
to raise prices on products from these countries. That could lead to an
increase in inflation. But it’s not clear that the Fed will react to such a
potential one-off increase with higher interest rates.
Minneapolis
Fed President Neel Kashkari said on November
10 to CBS’
“Face The Nation”, that: “If somebody imposed a 1% tariff or a 10% tariff, you
would think that that would increase prices of those goods either 1% or 10%.
That's pretty easy to model, and it shouldn't have an effect long run on
inflation. The challenge becomes, if there's a tit for tat. And it's one
country imposing tariffs and then responses, and it's escalating, that's where
it becomes more concerning, and, frankly, a lot more uncertain.”
As
such if tariffs were imposed, they could slow progress to the Fed’s 2%
inflation target, but its unclear that the Fed will react to what could be a
one time price increase with higher interest rates.
More
What To Expect From November’s CPI Inflation Report
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Trump taps lockdown critic Jay Bhattacharya to lead top health agency
27
November 2024
Donald Trump picked Dr.
Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford doctor silenced
for challenging Biden
administration lockdown policies, to
run the National Institutes of Health.
Trump
says that Bhattacharya will work with Secretary of Health and Human
Services nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr. while running the country's top public
funder of medical research with a budget of some $47.3 billion.
The
president-elect said in a statement: 'Together, Jay and RFK Jr. will restore
the NIH to a Gold Standard of Medical Research as they examine the underlying
causes of, and solutions to, America's biggest Health challenges, including our
Crisis of Chronic Illness and Disease. Together, they will work hard to Make
America Healthy Again!'
Bhattacharya,
a Stanford health policy professor and doctor, was an outspoken critic of the
U.S. government's COVID-19 policies
during the pandemic.
The
Stanford-trained physician and economist met with Kennedy this week and
impressed him with his ideas to overhaul NIH.
Bhattacharya
has called for shifting the agency's focus toward funding more innovative
research and reducing the influence of some of its longest-serving career
officials, the report added.
Along
with two other academics, he published the Great Barrington Declaration in
October 2020.
Trump
cited the Great Barrington Declaration among the doctor's credentials for
getting the job.
The
Great Barrington Declaration called for ‘focused protection,’ an idea that
would mean the bulk of efforts to increase immunity would be centered on the
most vulnerable groups – the elderly and the immunocompromised – with few
restrictions on the general healthy population.
Without
those restrictions, more people would develop Covid that would confer
antibodies against infection, producing herd immunity.
As
more and more people become infected and later immune for a period of time, the
virus has fewer opportunities to spread and infect vulnerable people.
But
the idea was slammed by many mainstream scientists, including those like
Anthony Fauci and NIH Director Frances Collins, who worked in the Biden
administration. Many criticized the idea as dangerous and would lead to many
preventable deaths.
Bhattacharya
sued the government afterward, alleging that it pressured social media
platforms to censor his opinions.
In
2023, a federal court ruled that the Biden Administration coerced social
media sites to censor him and his co-authors.
More
Trump taps lockdown critic Jay Bhattacharya to lead top health agency
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Mercedes
reinvents the brakes for electric vehicles
By Joe Salas November 25, 2024
In the
simplest terms, nearly every modern car on the planet uses disk brakes: a rotor
attached to a hub with a caliper with brake pads fixed to the control arm at
each wheel. The driver presses the brake pedal and hydraulic fluid is pushed
down the brake lines into the caliper, expanding the pistons and pushing the
brake pads against the rotor, slowing down the rotation of the rotor connected
to the hub, thus slowing down the wheel.
There
are other systems, like drum brakes, air brakes, band brakes, the Flintstones
method, et cetera, that have also been around since the dawn of the automotive
industry. The concept almost always remains the same: using friction to slow
down. And so it doesn't go unsaid, yes, there are compression brake systems as
well, but that's entirely different.
Mercedes-Benz
has put a new spin on an age-old concept with what it calls "in-drive
brakes" for electric vehicles. The system being developed at the company's
research and development department in Sindelfingen, Germany, integrates the
brakes right into the drivetrain, in an arrangement that works very much like a
transmission brake. It resembles clutch plates – but with a unique twist.
There
are no calipers, instead a circular brake pad connected directly to the output
shaft of the electric motor is pressed against a stationary water-cooled ring,
all of which is in an enclosed system.
According
to Mercedes, the in-drive brake system shouldn't require servicing for the life
of the vehicle, potentially saving the owner thousands of dollars in brake
repairs and replacements. Even the brake dust is collected in a small inner
compartment that won't require emptying.
Brake
dust is a major contributor to pollution, particularly in urban areas with lots
of stop-and-go traffic. And if you've ever driven down a long, steep grade like
the Grapevine, just north of Los Angeles, California, you're no stranger to the
smell of brake dust – and the discomfort in your nasal passages. EV motors
inherently act as a brake when the accelerator is released, as EV motors have
the ability to regenerate electricity back into the batteries, slowing the
vehicle down in the process. An actual brake system is still needed, however.
Though
the in-drive brake is still undergoing testing, Mercedes reckons that brake fade will
be a non-issue as the system is water-cooled. Given the in-drive brake system
relocates all the necessary "slow down" bits away from the wheels,
unsprung weight (weight that isn't carried by the chassis, and instead spins or
moves with the wheels, creating gyroscopic forces) is significantly reduced,
making the vehicle both handle better and improve the ride. Wheels could also
be made more aerodynamically efficient without the constraints of rotors and
calipers.
More
Mercedes reinvents
the brakes for electric vehicles
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
'Emergencies'
have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have
been eroded.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
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