Tuesday, 19 November 2024

Stocks What Next? Biden’s Ukraine Blank Cheque.

Baltic Dry Index. 1785 -29           Brent Crude  73.43

Spot Gold 2622                 US 2 Year Yield 4.29  -0.02

If a government resorts to inflation, that is, creates money in order to cover its budget deficits or expands credit in order to stimulate business, then no power on earth, no gimmick, device, trick or even indexation can prevent its economic consequences.

Henry Hazlitt.

In the stock casinos, rising unease.  What if Warren Buffett’s right to be selling out at the top?

What if the horrified extreme far left and deep state want a crash as payback for Donald Trump crushing their Kamal Harris dreams?

What if lame duck, semi senile, President Biden was just “blank cheque” rolled into meandering into World War Three?

What if the “nifty fifty” that crumbled down to the “magnificent seven” has collapsed into the lonely Tesla?

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise as key Chinese policymakers gather for investment summit

Updated Tue, Nov 19 2024 12:47 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly higher on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street gains buoyed by a Tesla rally, and as investors parse Chinese financial policymakers’ speech at an investment summit in Hong Kong.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded 0.89% higher to close at 8,374. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.72%, while the Topix rose 0.78%. South Korea’s Kospi traded 0.29% higher.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.33%, while the mainland’s CSI 300 slipped 0.42%.

At a meeting earlier this month, members of Australia’s central bank maintained that while there was no immediate need to adjust interest rates, it is important to remain “forward looking” and ready to adjust as economic conditions develop.

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said at a global financiers summit in Hong Kong that China will support Hong Kong innovation and financial reform, enhancing the city’s “financial competitiveness.” He, who oversees a top-level economic and financial policy-making body, reiterated Beijing’s commitment to “explore and implement” measures aimed at building Hong Kong as an “international financial center.”

Li Yunze, the head of China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration, will join Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People’s Bank of China, for a panel discussion on mainland China’s financial developments, the HKMA summit’s agenda revealed.

Overnight in the U.S., the Nasdaq Composite rose following a rough week, as Tesla shares advanced and Wall Street looked ahead to some major market-moving earnings reports.

The Nasdaq advanced 0.6% to settle at 18,791.81, while the S&P 500 added about 0.4% to close at 5,893.62. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 55.39 points, or 0.1%, to finish at 43,389.60.

Monday’s movements come after a challenging week for the three major benchmarks, which have now pulled back from the peaks reached following Donald Trump’s election win. The decline was fueled by concerns over the direction of interest rates after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is not “in a hurry” to cut rates.

Asia markets live: RBA minutes, Hong Kong summit

Nasdaq closes higher as Tesla rally helps start week on an upbeat note

Updated Mon, Nov 18 2024 4:39 PM EST

The Nasdaq Composite rose Monday following a rough week, as Tesla shares surged and Wall Street looked ahead to some major market-moving earnings reports.

The Nasdaq advanced 0.6% to settle at 18,791.81, while the S&P 500 added about 0.4% to close at 5,893.62. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 55.39 points, or 0.1%, to finish at 43,389.60.

Tesla spearheaded the tech-heavy index’s rally, popping 5.6% amid a Bloomberg News report, citing people familiar with the matter, that President-elect Donald Trump’s team is working on ways to ease regulation on self-driving vehicles. Elsewhere, Apple and Netflix gained 1.3% and 2.8%, respectively, while Advanced Micro Devices surged 3%.

Wednesday’s report from artificial intelligence chip darling Nvidia remains top of mind for investors, and could serve as the next major catalyst as Wall Street searches for signs of resilient demand for its Blackwell AI chips. Shares slipped 1.3% after The Information reported that the chips overheat when connected in servers, citing sources familiar with the matter.

“The star this week is our friend Nvidia,” said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners, highlighting its importance to all the key indexes with its recent inclusion in the Dow. “Unless some information comes out before then, the market is going to wait and see what’s going on with Nvidia.”

Beyond Nvidia, investors await a batch of earnings from key retailers, which could offer greater insight into the health of the economy and consumer spending. About 93% of S&P 500 companies have reported results so far. More than 74% have topped earnings expectations and 62% have surpassed revenue estimates, according to FactSet.

Monday’s moves follow a tough week for the three major benchmarks, now off the highs seen in the aftermath of Trump’s election victory. That sell-off was driven by concerns about the path for interest rates after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is not “in a hurry” to cut rates given the economy’s strong growth and a solid labor market.

In other news, CVS Health shares popped 5% after agreeing to add four new board members. Super Micro Computer skyrocketed about 16% following a Barron’s report that the AI server maker intends to file a plan for its annual report to avert a Nasdaq delisting.

Stock market news for Nov. 18, 2024

Kremlin brings up nuclear doctrine day after Biden’s arms decision on Ukraine

Published Tue, Nov 19 2024 1:01 AM EST

Changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine have been drawn up and will be formalized as necessary, the Kremlin said on Tuesday, signaling again Moscow’s concern over the latest U.S. decision on missile strikes from Ukraine.

“They (the changes) have already been practically formulated. They will be formalized as necessary,” Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s press secretary, told the TASS state news agency in remarks published on Tuesday.

The Kremlin called on Monday the reported decision by President Joe Biden’s administration to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russia reckless and it warned that Moscow will respond.

Russia, which started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine 1,000 days ago, has repeatedly cautioned that the West is playing with fire by probing the limits of what a nuclear power might or might not tolerate.

In September, President Vladimir Putin said that Western approval of Kyiv’s use of long-range missiles would mean “the direct involvement of NATO countries, the United States and European countries in the war in Ukraine” because NATO military infrastructure and personnel would have to be involved in the targeting and firing of the missiles.

Biden’s decision followed months of pleas by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to allow Ukraine’s military to use U.S. weapons to hit Russian military targets far from its border.

The U.S. decision came largely in response to Russia’s deployment of North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces, a development that has caused alarm in Washington and Kyiv, sources told Reuters.

Russia calls its war in Ukraine a special military operation, while Kyiv and its Western allies call it an unprovoked, imperialistic land grab.

Russian forces control about a fifth of Ukrainian territory and have recently been advancing swiftly. Thousands of people have died in the war, the vast majority of them Ukrainians.

Just weeks before the November U.S. presidential vote, Putin ordered changes to the nuclear doctrine to say that any conventional attack on Russia aided by a nuclear power could be considered to be a joint attack on Russia.

Western analysts have called the changes an escalation in Moscow’s attempts to dissuade the West from expanding its military aid to Ukraine. The full details of the amended doctrine have not yet been made public.

The war in Ukraine has triggered the worst crisis in Moscow’s relations with the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Kremlin brings up nuclear doctrine day after Biden's arms decision on Ukraine

Germany's Blank Cheque to Austria-Hungary

By William Mulligan

Germany’s offer of unconditional support to its Austro-Hungarian ally in July 1914 remains one of the most controversial decisions in modern history. Historians have interpreted the blank cheque in several, often contradictory, ways – either as a German attempt to escalate a regional crisis into a wider European war or as a move to localise war in the Balkans. Most historians agree that the blank cheque marked a victory for the war party in Vienna.

Assurance of Support

On 5 July 1914, Alexander Hoyos (1876-1937), a leading hawk in the Austrian Foreign Ministry, and Count Ladislaus von Szögyény (1841-1916), the Habsburg ambassador to Berlin, met Wilhelm II, German Emperor (1859-1941) and Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg (1856-1921), the German chancellor. Later that day, Bethmann Hollweg assured Szögyény that Germany would support her ally, whatever measures the Austro-Hungarian leaders decided to take against Serbia.

Germany’s Faulty Assumptions

In issuing the blank cheque, German leaders made a number of faulty assumptions. They believed that Austria-Hungary was ready to initiate war against Serbia immediately and that a rapid strike would present Europe with a fait accompli. They reckoned that the Tsarist regime was not militarily ready to risk a general European war. Moreover, they thought that monarchical solidarity would trump pan-Slav sentiment, that the Tsar would not support a state that had allegedly harboured the assassins of the heir to the Habsburg throne. In other words, the “blank cheque” was designed first and foremost to secure a triumph, either political or military, for the Central Powers in the Balkans. The “blank cheque” was vital in bolstering Austro-Hungarian leaders in their decision to embark on war against Serbia.

Attempted Withdrawal

Bethmann Hollweg had also built into his calculations the risk of a general European war and in supporting Austria-Hungary he believed that were a European war to happen, better that it happen in 1914 than several years later. This scenario, however, was not considered a probability on 5 July. When that prospect became a probability in late July, Bethmann Hollweg and Wilhelm II sought, but failed, to amend the cheque.

William Mulligan, University College Dublin

Germany's Blank Cheque to Austria-Hungary

In EV news.

EV Battery Giant Faces Bankruptcy

18 November 2024

Swedish battery maker Northvolt, once a leading player in Europe’s electric vehicle battery and energy storage markets, is now grappling with severe financial difficulties.

The company is reportedly considering filing for bankruptcy protection under U.S. Chapter 11 laws—or even declaring outright bankruptcy, according to sources.

The Financial Times reports that some major investors have already written down their stakes in Northvolt to zero.

"Chapter 11 is on the table, and bankruptcy is still a possibility," a source familiar with the matter revealed.

The company is grappling with a dire financial crisis, having failed to secure the approximately €870 million needed to stay afloat, according to CEO Peter Carlsson. Negotiations with potential investors for fresh capital injections have stalled, leaving Northvolt in a precarious position.

Financial Times sources indicate that time is running out, with a decision on whether to file for bankruptcy protection or proceed with bankruptcy expected as early as this week.

Northvolt’s largest investor, German automaker Volkswagen, is still a critical stakeholder. But BMW, another member of the ownership group, has already canceled a significant order, compounding the company's troubles.

Northvolt, once hailed as a pivotal player in Europe’s electric vehicle battery and energy storage sectors, now faces a pivotal moment in its history.

EV Battery Giant Faces Bankruptcy

Finally, the USA gets ready for a Thanksgiving travel boom next week.

Record 80 million Americans expected to travel for Thanksgiving holiday, industry group says

By Doyinsola Oladipo  November 18, 20245:05 AM GMT

NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Americans are expected to set a new record for Thanksgiving travel, with nearly 80 million to hit the roads, catch flights and board cruises over the holiday period, travel group AAA said on Monday.

About 1.7 million more people will travel this year from Tuesday, Nov. 26 to Monday, Dec. 2, compared to a similar period in 2023.

Although staffing and aircraft shortages have capped the airline industry's ability to ramp up capacity during the holidays in previous years, a record number of Americans are expected to fly to their destinations this year.

American Airlines (AAL.O), opens new tab plans to shuttle 8.3 million passengers from Nov. 21 to Dec. 3, about 500,000 more customers than last year. Delta Air Lines (DAL.N), opens new tab said it is expecting a record 6.5 million passengers over a 12-day period, a 5% year-over-year increase.

Southwest Airlines (LUV.N), opens new tab and American Airlines both said their passenger volumes will peak on Sunday, Dec. 1, as more travelers plan to return home immediately following the holiday versus extending their trips.

United Airlines (UAL.O), opens new tab said its passenger volumes on the Friday, Saturday and Sunday after Thanksgiving have increased 20% from 2023, while demand for Monday and Tuesday is flat. The air carrier is expecting a record 6.2 million total passengers over a 13-day period.

Travelers are paying more to travel domestically this year, with the average airfare priced at $273 as of the end of October, up 9% from last year, according to travel booking app Hopper. However, airfares for the holiday remain lower than in 2022 and pre-pandemic levels, the company said.

International flight booking numbers are up 23% compared to last Thanksgiving, while average ticket costs are down 5%, the AAA said.

CAR TRAVEL

AAA projects a record 71.7 million people will embark on road trips across the country, a 1.3 million increase from last year.

Falling oil prices may help push the national average gasoline price below $3 a gallon for the first time since 2021.

BUS, CRUISE AND TRAIN TRAVEL

Nearly 2.3 million people are expected to travel by other modes of transportation including by bus, a 9% increase from 2023 and an 18% jump from 2019, according to the AAA.

That is due in large part to the growing popularity of cruising, as domestic and international cruise bookings are up 20% compared to last Thanksgiving.

Rail operator Amtrak said it carried more than 1 million customers from Nov. 18 to Nov. 26 in 2023 and is expecting more than that this year, a spokesperson said.

Record 80 million Americans expected to travel for Thanksgiving holiday, industry group says | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

How socialism really works in reality.

UK inflation set to jump above target in headache for Rachel Reeves

Monday 18 November 2024 7:13 am

UK inflation is expected to have jumped above the Bank of England’s two per cent target in October, bolstering a cautious approach to cutting interest rates in the months ahead.

A more gradual easing of monetary policy would be a headache for the new government, which has tried to reassure markets that last month’s big-spend Budget will boost economic growth without leading to runaway inflation.

Economists forecast the consumer price index (CPI), due on Wednesday, to come in at 2.2 per cent for last month, up from 1.7 per cent in September.

Higher energy prices are expected to drive the increase, with regulator Ofgem hiking its price cap on household bills by 9.5 per cent last month.

A better, albeit still elevated, number is expected for underlying gauges like services inflation, which rate-setters pay close attention to.

The BoE forecasts services inflation to tick up to five per cent in October, from 4.9 per cent in September. Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect a slight slowdown to 4.8 per cent.

A larger-than-expected rise could give policymakers further cause to leave rates on hold in December, after already making two cuts this year.

BoE governor Andrew Bailey has warned that services inflation “is easing only gradually” and that a “more substantial fall” is unlikely this year.

His comments underscore the BoE’s gradual approach towards cutting interest rates. Markets expect policymakers to hold rates next month before making a quarter-point cut in February.

Bailey has also suggested policymakers are still waiting to judge the impact measures in Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first Budget will have on the UK economy.

The BoE raised its inflation forecasts for the next three years after Reeves increased taxes on employers, which business groups have warned could lead to higher prices and a hiring slowdown.

“The headaches in a sense are of her own making, given that despite two rate cuts, yields and interest rate cut expectations have moved against her due to anxiety over her Budget measures,” Michael Hewson, an analyst at Market Insights, told City AM.

“Along with an expectation that headline CPI is likely to edge back above two per cent in the months ahead and sticky core and services inflation, it means that markets have little confidence that the Bank of England will be able to cut rates significantly before the middle of next year.”

Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, said the headline rate of inflation would likely “pick up from here”.

More

UK inflation set to jump above target in headache for Rachel Reeves

Car firms threaten to pull production from the UK over EV demands

19 November 2024

Labour have been warned reducing electric vehicle targets will risk losing billions in investment from the charging industry.

Several major car makers are lobbying ministers to lower the 22 per cent electric vehicle sales target imposed this year.

Some, including Vauxhall owner Stellantis, have threatened to pull production from the UK entirely over the issue ahead of crunch talks between senior ministers and industry figures this week.

Transport Secretary Louise Haigh has insisted that the ‘mandate will not be weakened’ despite the growing pressure from firms.

Last night she met with Japanese manufacturer Nissan, which reportedly intends to use the wider meeting with ministers to warn that the UK car industry is reaching a ‘crisis point’.

Ms Haigh said afterwards: ‘We’re always open to engaging with industry and I had a very constructive meeting with Nissan, where we discussed how together we can decarbonise our car industry, support jobs and deliver growth.

‘The UK now has the fastest growth of zero emission vehicles of any major European market, and we’re providing more than £2.3 billion to support industry and consumers in making the switch.’

The zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate, introduced in January by the previous Tory government, means 22 per cent of manufacturers’ car sales this year must be electric, rising to 80 per cent in 2030. Currently, just 18 per cent of UK car sales are electric vehicles.

But figures in the vehicle charging industry have warned that any change to this could result in billions in lost investment, however - leaving ministers caught between the needs of car manufacturers and businesses investing in the electric vehicle revolution.

More

Car firms threaten to pull production from the UK over EV demands

HSBC bankers told to reapply for jobs with hundreds facing the axe in major overhaul

18 November 2024

HSBC is preparing to axe hundreds of senior bankers over the coming weeks as part of a sweeping overhaul by boss Georges Elhedery.

The cost-cutting move – in the run-up to Christmas – will see managers asked to reapply for roles in the bank’s newly formed corporate and institutional banking unit.

It will reportedly mean employees from HSBC’s commercial banking division competing for the positions against those from the global banking and markets unit.

The interviews for the roles are already underway, Bloomberg News reported. HSBC declined to comment.

The bank employs more than 30,000 staff in the UK and over 200,000 worldwide.

Elhedery’s predecessor Noel Quinn had already axed tens of thousands of jobs across the group during five years in charge. 

His Lebanese-born successor took over in September, and last month he announced plans to ‘simplify’ the sprawling bank.

Under Elhedery’s restructuring plan, HSBC will be organised into four divisions: Hong Kong; UK; corporate and institutional banking; and international wealth and premier banking.

Businesses within the latter two divisions will fall between eastern markets, including Asia and the Middle East, and western markets, including the UK, Europe and the Americas.

Elhedery, 50, warned staff there would ‘inevitably be a reduction in duplicated roles, particularly at senior levels’. Reports have suggested the cuts could save more than £200million.

----The bank said it would ‘reduce the duplication of processes and decision making’ that are built into the current structure.

Some investors want the restructuring to go further, severing the bank’s operations in Asia entirely from its business in the UK and the rest of the world.

A number of top level HSBC executives are already departing, including Nuno Matos, head of wealth and personal banking, who missed out on the top job.

HSBC was founded in Hong Kong and still makes most of its profits in Asia but increasingly strained relations between the West and China’s repressive Communist regime have created challenges for the bank.

HSBC bankers told to reapply for jobs with hundreds facing the axe in major overhaul

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Trump's former CDC director makes bombshell COVID claim

18 November 2024

A former director of the CDC under Donald Trump says he believes COVID-19 may have been born in a North Carolina laboratory as part of a secret biodefense program.

Robert Redfield has previously been a proponent of the 'lab leak' theory which posits the disease came from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China.

Now Redfield - a frequent critic of Dr. Anthony Fauci - says that the disease may have origins in the Tar Heel State.  

Appearing on the Third Opinion podcast, Redfield flat out stated that COVID-19 was 'intentionally engineered as a part of a biodefense program.'

He now argues that China did not necessarily create the virus and did the best that they could once 'they realized they had a problem.  

However, he calls the United States' role in the development of the virus 'substantial.'

He claims that the American government holds responsibility for funding research into the NIH, USAID and the Department of Defense. 

He then calls out researcher Dr. Ralph Baric from the University of North Carolina, whom he calls 'the scientific mastermind' behind all of this. 

'I think he probably helped create some of the original viral lines, but I can’t prove that. But he was very involved,' he said. 

When pressed on whether the virus was 'actually developed here' and that the Chinese may have been wrongfully accused of developing the virus, Redfield doubles down.

'Well, I don’t know if they were framed, but I think there is a real possibility that the virus’s birthplace was Chapel Hill,' Redfield said, naming the hometown of the University of North Carolina. 

DailyMail.com has reached out to Dr. Baric for comment. 

More

Trump's former CDC director makes bombshell COVID claim

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Successful test flights set to power Li-S Energy’s lithium-sulfur battery take-off

18 November 2024

 Special Report: Li-S Energy has lifted confidence in its commercial potential by successfully completing the first drone test flights powered by one of its 12-cell lithium sulfur battery packs.

The battery-tech startup is focused on high-growth target markets of uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAVs) or drones, e-aviation, security and defence.

In all those applications the reduced cell weight, extended range and longer flight times Li-S Energy (ASX:LIS) batteries can provide are highly valued.

That means the latest test flights are a significant achievement as they clearly demonstrate that LIS’s energy dense lithium sulfur cells can be configured into a battery pack, integrated into a fixed-wing UAV, then successfully used in a typical flight with take-off, ascent, level flight, aerial manoeuvres and safe landing.

The Li-S Energy team manufactured the 6S2P battery pack using 12 10Ah lithium sulfur (Li-S) cells on its state of the art Phase 3 production line in Geelong.

The nominal pack voltage was 11.4V, with capacity of 20Ah and weight of only 550 grams at a pack level. The pack was then integrated into the fixed-wing, single-motor UAV with a 2.4-metre wingspan.

Test flights were carried out using both catapult launch and hand-launch methods, with each flight completed successfully.

While LIS said the flights were not an endurance test, the total flight time was 30 minutes completed with a single battery pack with no intermediate recharge and the battery pack was only partially discharged at the end of the tests.

Importantly, on return to the LIS facility, the battery pack recharged successfully.

The test flights follow last month’s globally significant breakthrough for its unique lithium sulfur cell chemistry.

More

Successful test flights set to power Li-S Energy’s lithium-sulfur battery take-off

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared. 

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Governments have persistently tried their best to promote, encourage, and expand the circulation of bank and government paper, and to discourage the people's use of gold itself.

Murray Rothbard.


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