Baltic
Dry Index. 1354 -65 Brent Crude 71.84
Spot
Gold 2643 U S 2 Year Yield 4.13 -0.06
Manias are characterized by euphoria and the belief that the
good times will last forever.
Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes.
It
may have been a shortened trading session in the US stock casinos, but it was
yet another end of month day to dress up stocks ahead of the final trading
month of 2024.
What
could possibly go wrong?
Wall
Street Marks Its Best Month of the Year So Far
November
29, 2024 at 11:43 PM GMT
US
stocks on Friday ended a shortened trading session higher, closing out
the best month of the year so far. This upward trajectory
appears to accentuate what Bank of America strategists call the “extreme disconnect” between investor bullishness on US
assets and bearishness on the rest of the world. Euro-area inflation climbed above the European Central
Bank’s 2% target and the yen advanced more than 3% against the dollar this
week as bets grow that the Bank of Japan will raise
interest rates next month. But after a year in which US unemployment remained
near record lows and the Federal Reserve arguably touched down in gentle
fashion, Wall Street remains more than content about what’s looming on the
horizon. “Earnings growth forecasts for 2025 in the US remain optimistic, at
around 15%,” said William Davies, global chief investment officer at Columbia
Threadneedle Investments. “This continued resilience is to some extent a little
surprising, because the global economy is not without risks as we move into 2025.”
What
You Need to Know Today
Chinese
stocks rallied for
the second time this week with traders pointing to expectations of greater economic support at a key policy meeting in
December. The CSI 300 Index jumped as much as 2.3% on Friday, its biggest gain
in three weeks. Technology, health-care and consumer staples sectors led the
advance. A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese developer shares rose more
than 3%. Speculation that authorities will release further stimulus is growing ahead of the Central
Economic Work Conference. Investors are pinning their hopes on Beijing to counter any impact from escalated trade tensions,
given the threats emanating from the US.
More
Wall
Street Marks Its Best Month of the Year So Far: Evening Briefing Americas -
Bloomberg
Dow
jumps nearly 200 points to record in short session, S&P 500 posts best
month of 2024: Live updates
Updated
Fri, Nov 29 2024 1:52 PM EST
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 rose to new
heights on Friday amid a shortened trading day that capped a strong month for
equities.
The
S&P 500 added 0.56% to 6,032.38, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped
0.83% to 19,218.17.The Dow climbed 188.59 points, or 0.42%, to end at
44,910.65. Both the Dow and S&P 500 notched new intraday and closing highs.
Some
of the upward momentum came from chip stocks, which popped after Bloomberg reported that the Biden administration was
considering additional barriers on the sale of semiconductor equipment to China
that weren’t
as strong as previously expected. Lam Research rallied more
than 3%, while Nvidia jumped
more than 2%. The iShares
Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) added 1.3%.
A
fairly broad advance propelled the S&P 500 into uncharted territory. About
three out of every five S&P 500 members finished the session in the green.
Those
moves came as traders looked to the end of a winning week and month. November
trading largely centered on the postelection rally seen on the back of
President-elect Donald Trump’s victory.
The
Dow added 1.4% this week, bringing its gain for November to 7.5%. The S&P
500 and Nasdaq Composite each advanced 1.1% on the week, ending 2024′s
penultimate month higher by more than 5% and 6%, respectively. With those
gains, the Dow and S&P 500 notched their best months of 2024.
The
small cap-focused Russell 2000 outperformed
in November as investors saw the group benefiting from Trump’s potential tax
cuts. The Russell 2000 surged 10.8% this month, helped by a gain of 1.2% this
week.
“The
prevailing takeaway from November, to me, is that what was true before the
election has remained true after the election,” said Ross Mayfield, investment
strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management. “As we head into December, it’s
really hard to fade this bull market here, with all the things going right, the
election in the rearview and a seasonal tailwind that still has some room to
run.”
Stocks
have also been lifted late this year by expectations that interest rates remain
on a downward course, which raises the present value of future earnings and
should boost the economy. Fed funds futures are now pricing in around a 66%
likelihood that the central bank will lower rates by 25 basis points at its
policy meeting next month, according to CMEGroup’s FedWatch Tool.
The
stock market was dark Thursday and closed at 1 p.m. ET on Friday in observance
of the Thanksgiving holiday. Friday trading volume on both the New York Stock
Exchange and Nasdaq was less than two-thirds the past 30 days’ daily average.
---- No market corrections yet in 2024
There
hasn’t been a stock market correction, or a pullback of 10% or more, in
the S&P 500 this
year, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Since
1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a correction once every 346 days, almost
once a year, the research firm said. The market has been stronger in recent
years, however, as half the yearly periods since 2000 haven’t had such a
pullback.
The
S&P 500 is up more than 26% in 2024, on track for its best year since 2021.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Europe
markets close higher following volatile week; Anglo American up 5.4%
Updated
Fri, Nov 29 2024 11:55 AM EST
European
stocks closed higher Friday afternoon, following a mixed morning session as
investors assessed the latest euro zone inflation data.
The Stoxx 600 index closed up
0.58%, with almost all sectors and major bourses in the green.
The
pan-European benchmark also closed the month 0.96% higher, according to LSEG
data. The gain was a recovery from October, when the index recorded
the worst monthly performance for a year.
Tech
stocks led gains Friday, adding 1.8%, as telecoms fell 0.19%. Mining stocks
also gained momentum, adding 1.47%, with Anglo American leading the
pack, up 5.4%, while Antofagasta and Glencore both added more
than 1%.
France’s CAC 40 index was little
changed from the previous session amid ongoing
political turmoil. It comes shortly after the country’s risk
premium drew level with Greece’s for the first time.
Euro
zone inflation rose from 2% in October to 2.3% in November, flash data from
statistics agency Eurostat showed on Friday, above the European Central Bank’s
2% target.
Economists
polled by Reuters had expected a 2.3% reading for headline inflation in
November. It bolsters the case for a more cautious interest rate cut at the
European Central Bank’s next meeting on Dec. 12.
Separately,
France’s harmonized inflation rate came in at 1.7% in November, up slightly
from 1.6% in October, according to preliminary data from the National Institute
of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee).
The
November reading was in line with the expectations of economists surveyed by
the Wall Street Journal.
Across
the Atlantic, U.S. stocks were higher in morning deals as markets reopened for
a shortened trading session after the Thanksgiving holiday.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly
lost ground on Friday, led by losses in South Korean stocks, while strong
inflation data from Tokyo boosted expectations of an imminent rate hike from
the Bank of Japan.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, inflation and GDP data
In
other news.
India’s
quarterly growth slumps to a near two-year low, well below expectations
Published
Fri, Nov 29 2024 5:50 AM EST Updated Fri, Nov 29 2024 6:59 AM EST
India’s
economy expanded by just 5.4% in its second fiscal quarter ending September,
well below estimates by economists and close to a two-year low.
The
print follows 6.7% growth over the previous quarter and is the lowest
reading since the last quarter of 2022. Economists polled by Reuters had
forecast growth of 6.5% for the period, while the Reserve Bank of India
expected an expansion of 7%.
The country’s statistics agency noted sluggish growth in
manufacturing and the mining sector.
The
yield on the country’s 10-year sovereign bond quickly sank to 6.74% after the
release, from around 6.8%.
The
weak GDP reading could potentially affect the country’s interest rate
trajectory, with the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee scheduled to meet between
Dec. 6-8. Markets watchers had been expecting an eleventh consecutive pause by
the RBI, with the repo rate currently at 6.5%.
Harry
Chambers, an assistant economist at Capital Economics, said the Friday reading
showed that weakness was “broad based.” His firm expects economic activity “to
struggle over the coming quarters.”
“That
bolsters the case for policy loosening, but the recent jump in inflation means
the RBI won’t feel comfortable cutting interest rates for a few more months
yet,” he said in research note.
More
India's
quarterly growth slumps to a near two-year low, well below expectations
Barclays
prefers Germany over France as it sends ‘bond vigilante’ warning
Published
Fri, Nov 29 2024 4:36 AM EST
German
blue-chip stocks show more promise than their French counterparts, Barclays’
strategists wrote in a note Friday, saying France has weak “long-term fiscal
and growth fundamentals” and a looming risk of bond vigilantes sweeping in.
The
euro zone’s two biggest economies are both struggling. Germany is battling
an ongoing
manufacturing downturn that has turned it into the bloc’s growth
laggard, while disputes over its budget and long-term fiscal strategy
caused its
government to collapse earlier this month.
However,
French borrowing costs have climbed above Germany’s this year as political
instability in the country spooked markets.
France
is staring down years
of potential political uncertainty, given its fiercely divided parliament
in which no party or faction has a majority. There are also investor concerns
over whether it can reduce its hefty debt pile and avoid
credit rating downgrades.
A
key question is whether French Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s fragile
government can pass the budget
proposed in October — which includes significant public spending cuts
and 60 billion euros ($65.6 billion) in tax hikes — or whether it will be
toppled in a no-confidence vote beforehand.
“Compromise
on the French budget remains possible. But any relief may be short-lived.
There is no easy solution to the political impasse, while long-term fiscal and
growth fundamentals remain poor,” Barclays strategists said Friday, adding they
maintain their preference for Frankfurt’s DAX stock index over
Paris’s CAC 40
---- Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at
Rabobank, is not convinced.
“There
is a risk that a worsening in the political and budget outcomes in France could
spark contagion through the euro zone. This would be reflected in rising bond
yields and in a weaker [euro],” she said in a note Thursday.
“This
risk is dependent on the budgetary and political stability elsewhere in the
region. Germany’s debt and deficit position is in better shape. That said, the
country is facing severe structural issues that may require more government
investment. There is also the prospect of a snap election early next year, the
outcome of which could determine whether the country’s debt brake is lifted.”
“In
the meantime, the euro zone is lacking strong leadership in both Germany and in
France,” Foley added.
Barclays
prefers Germany over France as it sends 'bond vigilante' warning
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
The first derivative is the last refuge of a scoundrel.
Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes.
Euro
zone inflation climbs to 2.3% in November, meeting expectations
Published
Fri, Nov 29 2024 5:05 AM EST Updated Fri, Nov 29 2024
Annual
euro zone inflation rose to 2.3% in November, statistics agency Eurostat said
Friday, climbing back above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.
Economists
polled by Reuters had expected the 2.3% annual rate for the month, up from 2%
in October.
Price
rises in the bloc have ticked higher for two straight months after dropping to
1.7% in September, as was expected due to the fading deflationary pull from
energy prices.
Core
inflation, excluding volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, held at
2.7% for a third straight month in November.
The
core rate is being propped up by the stickiness of services inflation, which
only slid slightly to 3.9% in November from 4% during the previous month.
Markets
have fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut from the ECB in
December, which would mark the institution’s fourth trim of the year.
Speculation that
the central bank could be pushed into a larger 50-basis-point cut has faded
since last month, after slight improvements in the weak euro area growth
outlook and a rebound in inflation.
Inflation
came in slightly
higher than forecast in October, while ECB policymakers, including
executive board member Isabel Schnabel, have stressed the need for caution in monetary easing.
The
ECB’s decision will largely be informed by the latest staff macroeconomic
projections it will receive just ahead of its upcoming Dec. 12 meeting. The
central bank will also be weighing the potential global impact of the recent
election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, including whether he will follow
through on his threats
of universal trade tariffs and how such a step would impact European
Union exports.
More
Euro
zone inflation, November 2024
Recession to hit USA soon? Here's what
Americans expect
November 28,
2024
Apprehensions
over the likelihood of recession hitting the US economy often send around the
globe. However, Americans’ outlook on the economy improved modestly in
November, lifted by expectations for lower inflation and more hiring, AP
reported quoting a survey.
The Conference
Board, a business research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence
index ticked up to 111.7 from 109.6 in October. The small increase followed a
big gain in October.
Rising consumer
confidence suggests Americans may spend more in the coming months, which would
help boost economic growth. Yet Americans have been spending at a healthy clip
for much of the past two years even as confidence measures have been low, a
sign that sentiment surveys may not be as useful a guide to the economy's
direction as they were in the past.
The uptick comes
after President-elect Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election. The
Conference Board doesn't break out its responses by party, but another measure
of consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan showed that optimism about the
economy jumped among Republicans after the election.
In the
Conference Board's report, the proportion of Americans who anticipate a
recession in the next 12 months fell to the lowest level since the group first
began asking the question in July 2022. And consumers' optimism about future
hiring rose to its highest level in nearly three years.
The survey found
that Americans' expectations for future inflation fell to its lowest level
since March 2020, nearly a year before consumer prices began rising quickly.
When asked about their hopes for 2025, “consumers overwhelmingly selected
higher prices as their top concern and lower prices as their top wish for the
new year,” the Conference Board said.
The report comes
just hours after President-elect Donald Trump said he would impose stiff 25 per
cent tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10 per
cent on imports from China. Economists and some retailers warn that such
duties, if enacted, would be inflationary.
"Households
for now seem to have their heads in the sand about the potential uplifts to
consumer prices from tariffs and deportations, or they think Trump wasn’t
serious about his intentions during the campaign," Samuel Tombs, chief
U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a client note.
Recession to hit USA soon? Here's what Americans expect
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
More RNA vaccine problems. Approx 4 minutes.
Lipidnanoparticles and DNA clip
Lipidnanoparticles and DNA clip
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Enhanced Strain Sensing with Silver-Coated Laser-Induced Graphene
28 November 2024
In a recent article published in Scientific Reports,
researchers presented a comprehensive study on the development and performance
evaluation of silver-coated laser-induced graphene (LIG) strain sensors. The
research aims to address the limitations of traditional strain sensors by
leveraging the unique properties of LIG combined with the conductive benefits
of silver nanoparticles. The findings indicate that the silver-coated sensors
exhibit superior performance compared to their uncoated counterparts, making
them promising candidates for future commercialization in various fields.
Background
Strain sensors are crucial in numerous
applications, including structural health monitoring, robotics, and biomedical
devices. Traditional sensors often face sensitivity, linearity, and reliability
challenges, particularly when measuring small strains.
The advent of laser-induced graphene
technology has opened new avenues for creating flexible and highly sensitive
sensors. LIG is produced by laser scribing a carbon-based material, such as
polyimide, which results in a porous graphene structure with excellent
electrical properties. However, to further enhance the performance of these
sensors, the integration of conductive materials like silver nanoparticles is
explored.
Silver is known for its high electrical
conductivity and biocompatibility, making it an ideal candidate for improving
the electrodynamic performance of strain sensors. This study investigates the
fabrication process, characterization, and performance of silver-coated LIG
sensors, providing insights into their potential applications.
More
Enhanced Strain Sensing with Silver-Coated Laser-Induced Graphene
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Approx. 10 minutes.
Johann
Christoph Schultze (1733-1813) - Concerto in G major
Johann Christoph
Schultze (1733-1813) - Concerto in G major
This
weekend’s WW1 naval update. Approx. 19 minutes.
The
Invention of the Depth Charge - Kaboom? Yes Jellicoe, Kaboom!
The Invention of
the Depth Charge - Kaboom? Yes Jellicoe, Kaboom!
This
weekend’s final diversion. Britain’s
other great storm. Approx 19 minutes.
Britain's
Biblical Storm, The Great Storm of 1703
Britain's Biblical
Storm, The Great Storm of 1703 - YouTube
The period of financial distress is a gradual decline after the
peak of a speculative bubble that precedes the final and massive panic and
crash, driven by the insiders having exited but the sucker outsiders hanging on
hoping for a revival, but finally giving up in the final collapse.
Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes.
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