Baltic
Dry Index. 1388 -07 Brent Crude 74.15
Spot Gold 2756 US 2 Year Yield 4.16 +0.01
“It would be so nice if something made sense for a change.”
Chairman Powell, with apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.
In the stock casinos priced to infinity and
beyond, more pause on mixed economic data. Later today, the latest US jobs data
from the Bureau of Lying Labor Statistics.
Today’s data is likely to have been affected by the Boeing strike, which finally looks like ending, and the last two hurricanes that hit hard Florida and east Tennessee and west North Carolina.
With Boeing, Amazon and Intel shares rising in the aftermarket, today’s US casino action could turn choppy ahead of next Tuesday’s US elections.
Adding to potential choppiness, crude oil rising on rumours of planned Iranian retaliation coming against Israel.
Up first, news from the Asian stock casinos.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 leads losses in Asia; China
stocks cheer better-than-expected PMI data
Updated Fri, Nov 1 2024 1:16 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded largely lower
on Friday, after Wall Street benchmarks Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 suffered their
worst day in nearly two months on downbeat Microsoft earnings forecast and Meta
results.
Traders in Asia assessed a slate of
economic data from the region.
Caixin China manufacturing purchasing
managers’ index for October came in at 50.3, according to the private survey, beating median estimate of
49.7 in a Reuters poll of economists, and rebounding from September’s 49.3.
A reading below 50 shows contraction in
manufacturing, while one above that indicates expansion.
China’s CSI 300 jumped 0.87%, while Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed
over 1.57%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.26%, while
the broad-based Topix dropped 1.52%. The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark policy rate at 0.25% on
Thursday.
In South Korea, the blue chip Kospi traded
near the flatline while the Kosdaq index lost 1.24%.
Taiwan Weighted Index lost
1.51%, as Typhoon Kong-rey, the largest storm to hit the island in nearly 30
years, wreaked havoc.
Australia’s third-quarter producer prices
index climbed 3.9% year on year, sharply lower than 4.8% reading in the
previous quarter, according to data from Australian Bureau of Statistics on Friday.
Quarter on quarter, the index rose 0.9% compared with a 1% rise in previous
quarter.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.5%
to finish at 8,118.8.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major
indexes dropped.
The S&P 500 tumbled 1.86% to
finish at 5,705.45 and the Nasdaq
Composite lost 2.76% to close at 18,095.15 — both recorded their
biggest one-day losses since Sept. 3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined
0.9% to end at 41,763.46.
That marked the final trading day of a
choppy month on Wall Street, with the 30-stock Dow recording monthly losses of
1.3%, S&P 500 declining 1% and the Nasdaq slipping 0.5%, amid heightened
uncertainty ahead of the U.S. Presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s
rate decision next week.
Asia markets Live Updates: Caixin China PMI; Australia PPI
S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffer their worst day in
over a month, led lower by tech: Live updates
Updated Thu, Oct 31 2024 4:09 PM EDT
Stocks slid on Thursday as Wall Street
digested discouraging quarterly reports from megacap technology names and
awaited further results.
The S&P 500 tumbled 1.86% to
finish at 5,705.45. The Nasdaq
Composite lost 2.76% to close at 18,095.15. Both indexes posted their
biggest one-day declines since Sept. 3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid
378.08 points, or 0.9%, to end at 41,763.46.
Microsoft shares
slid 6% after the tech giant’s revenue
guidance disappointed investors and overshadowed a quarterly earnings
beat. Meta Platforms dropped
more than 4% after the Facebook parent missed the Street’s expectations for
user growth and warned that capital
expenditures will significantly rise in 2025.
“I think we’re getting to the point where
AI enthusiasm and potential is not enough. These companies, while they’re still
levered to those themes and hold favorable long term growth profiles, are not
quite delivering the growth that is priced into them,” said Ross Mayfield,
investment strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management.
Big tech earnings so far this week have
been a mixed bag. While Alphabet shares
rose nearly 3% on Wednesday after the company reported strong revenue growth,
chipmaker AMD fell
more than 10% as investors were disappointed by the company’s guidance for the
fourth quarter.
Tech earnings continue on Thursday with
results from megacap stocks Apple and Amazon due after the bell.
The latest personal
consumption expenditures price index showed 12-month inflation rose at
a rate of 2.1% in September, arriving inline with estimates and moving closer
to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The PCE reading is the Fed’s preferred
inflation gauge.
Thursday’s PCE reading, along with
Friday’s October payrolls report and unemployment data, will inform the Fed’s
interest rate decision on Nov. 7 when it ends its two-day policy meeting.
More
Stock market today: Live updates
Boeing Union Endorses Latest Offer to End
Crippling Strike
October 31, 2024
(Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co. and union
leaders representing 33,000 striking workers reached a tentative agreement to
end a lengthy labor dispute that’s crippling the company’s commercial airplane
manufacturing.
The company’s latest proposal would boost
wages by 38% over four years and give workers a $12,000 signing bonus if it’s
approved, the International
Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers said in a statement.
IAM District 751 urged its members to
accept the Boeing offer and end the strike, warning they risked losing gains
they’ve made after weeks of collective bargaining. The union plans to hold a
vote on the proposal on Nov. 4.
“In every negotiation and strike, there is
a point where we have extracted everything that we can in bargaining and by
withholding our labor,” the union said late
Thursday. “We are at that point now and risk a regressive or lesser offer in
the future.”
Boeing’s shares rose as much as 2.8% in
after-hours trading. The stock had plunged 43% so far this year through the
close of Thursday’s session.
The latest attempt to end the labor strife
comes after 64% of members of IAM District 751 voted to reject Boeing’s third
contract offer, which would’ve hiked wages by 35% over four years. Ratification
would represent a critical win for new Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg,
clearing the way to move forward with plans to rebuild Boeing’s culture and
improve the quality of work in its factories.
More
Boeing Union Endorses Latest Offer to End Crippling Strike
In other news, the World Bank is banking on a commodity price slump due to a drop in oil demand from China.
Well maybe, but I expect an oil glut from recessions in the USA, UK and EU reducing their oil demand too.
World Bank expects oil glut to cause commodity
price slump
October 29, 2024
Global commodity prices should fall to a
five-year low next year thanks to a huge oil glut, the World Bank said Tuesday,
pointing to oversupply and to flat demand from China.
"Next year, the global oil supply is
expected to exceed demand by an average of 1.2 million barrels per day,"
the Bank announced in its latest report on global commodity markets, adding
that this scale of oversupply has been exceeded only twice before, in 1998 and
2020.
The expected oil glut "is so large
that it is likely to limit the price effects even of a wider conflict in the
Middle East," the Bank said.
It blamed the expected oversupply partly
on a "major shift" underway in China, where demand for oil has
flatlined on the back of rising electric vehicle sales, demand for trucks
running on liquified natural gas (LNG), and a slowdown in industrial
production.
The Bank said it also expects several
countries not in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries or its
allies (OPEC+) "to ramp up oil production," fueling the oversupply
and helping to push down global commodity prices by almost 10 percent by the
end of 2026.
But despite the sharp decline, overall
commodity prices will likely remain around 30 percent above their level in the
five years before the Covid-19 pandemic.
"Falling commodity prices and better
supply conditions can provide a buffer against geopolitical shocks," World
Bank chief economist Indermit Gill said in a statement.
"But they will do little to
alleviate the pain of high food prices in developing countries, where
food-price inflation is double the norm in advanced economies," he added.
The World Bank expects food prices to fall
by nine percent this year, and by an additional four percent in 2025, leaving
them stuck around 25 percent above the level they were at between 2015 and
2019.
Meanwhile, energy prices are predicted to
drop by six percent next year, and by a further two percent in 2026.
World Bank expects oil glut to cause commodity price slump
Stellantis sells fewer cars and reports lower
European demand
31 October 2024
he owner of car brands including Fiat,
Chrysler and Peugeot has reported a steep fall in sales, blaming production
delays and flagging European demand.
Stellantis reported revenues on Thursday
of €33bn for the July to September quarter, a drop of 27% compared with the
same period a year earlier.
Shipments of cars fell to 1.1m, down 20%
on last year. Stellantis blamed the drop partly on delays to production of some
models in Europe as it switches factories from producing petrol and diesel cars
to electric and hybrid models.
Carmakers around the world have been
struggling with relatively weak demand amid higher interest rates, while coming
up with the large investments needed to make the electric switch.
Germany’s Volkswagen
this week also reported a slump in profits, with BMW and
Mercedes-Benz also reporting weaker sales.
Stellantis, which is headquartered in
Amsterdam and which also owns the Vauxhall, Citroën, Jeep and Maserati brands,
has struggled particularly recently. In September it issued
a profit warning because
of waning demand and increased competition from Chinese rivals, who are
targeting the new electric vehicle market in particular.
Its chief executive, Carlos Tavares,
disclosed this month that he would step down in 2026. In an effort to secure
his legacy, he has launched a turnaround drive in North America, including
cutting the number of cars sitting on dealer forecourts.
---- Stellantis is racing to match
its Chinese competitors with a barrage of new battery electric models in
Europe, while still producing petrol and hybrids.
However, the company has also pushed back
against European and British regulations that force carmakers to sell more
electric cars, including threatening to close UK factories. Tavares said this
month that the future of its UK factories would be decided
“in the next few weeks”.
Tavares has been open about the threat
from Asian competitors but he has taken a different approach from that of many
European rivals by agreeing
to sell cars by the Chinese manufacturer Leapmotor.
Despite the EU’s moves to impose tariffs
totalling up to 45% on car imports from China, the march of the country’s
manufacturers is expected to continue. Sales at China’s biggest electric
carmaker, BYD, passed Tesla’s for the first time in the third quarter of 2024,
and it is looking to expand beyond its home market. BYD this week said it had
poached Stellantis’s former
UK chief, Maria Grazia Davino, to lead its European operations.
Stellantis sells fewer cars and reports lower European demand
Ford to idle F-150 Lightning EV plant in
mid-November for rest of year
October 31, 2024
Ford Motor Co. plans to
stop building its F-150 Lightning from mid-November through the end of the year
amid lower-than-expected demand for the electric pickup.
More, subscription required.
Ford F-150 Lightning EV production to shut down for 7 weeks
Finally, in EU v China trade war news, are the disastrous 1930s starting to repeat?
Exclusive-China tells carmakers to pause
investment in EU countries backing EV tariffs, sources say
31 October 2024
SHANGHAI (Reuters) -China has told its
automakers to halt big investment in European countries that support extra
tariffs on Chinese-built electric vehicles, two people briefed about the matter
said, a move likely to further divide Europe.
The new European Union tariffs of up to
45.3% came into effect on Wednesday after a year-long investigation that
divided the bloc and prompted retaliation from Beijing.
Ten EU members including France, Poland
and Italy supported tariffs in a vote this month, in which five members
including Germany opposed them and 12 abstained.
As Beijing continues negotiations over an
alternative to tariffs, Chinese automakers including BYD, SAIC, and Geely were
told at a meeting held by the Ministry of Commerce on Oct. 10 that they should
pause their heavy asset investment plans such as factories in countries that
backed the proposal, said the people.
They declined to be named, as the meeting
was not public.
Several foreign automakers also attended
the meeting, where the participants were told to be prudent about their
investments in countries that abstained from voting and were
"encouraged" to invest in those that voted against the tariffs, the
people said.
Geely declined to comment. SAIC, BYD and
the commerce ministry did not immediately reply to requests for comment.
Italy and France are among EU countries
that have been courting Chinese automakers for investments, but they have also
warned of the risks that a flood of cheap Chinese EVs pose to European
manufacturers.
State-owned SAIC, China's second-largest
auto exporter, is choosing a site for an EV factory in Europe and has been
separately planning to open its second European parts centre in France this
year to meet growing demand for its MG-brand cars.
An aide to France's junior trade minister
Sophie Primas said they had no comment to make ahead of her trip to China next
week.
The Italian government is in talks with
Chery, China's largest automaker by exports, and other Chinese automakers,
including Dongfeng Motor, about potential investments.
Italy's industry ministry declined to
comment. Dongfeng and Chery didn't immediately respond.
BYD is building a plant in Hungary, which
voted against the tariffs. The Chinese EV giant has also been considering
relocating its European headquarters from the Netherlands to Hungary due to
cost concerns, two separate people with knowledge of the matter said.
More
Exclusive-China tells carmakers to pause investment in EU countries backing EV tariffs, sources say
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
EU
Officials to Visit Beijing to Discuss EV Tariffs
October
31, 2024 at 6:38 AM GMT
The
European Union will send officials to Beijing to discuss EV tariffs. Take a
deep dive into the aftermath of Rachel Reeves’ first UK budget. And see why
Swiss watchmakers are listening to social media influencers. Listen
to the day’s top stories.
The
EU will send officials
to Beijing to hold more talks aimed
at finding an alternative to tariffs on EVs from China, people familiar
said. The two sides have been exploring whether an agreement can be reached on
so-called price undertakings—a complex mechanism to control prices and volumes
of exports, used to avoid
tariffs.
European automakers, including Volkswagen, are looking
for ways to save costs as they struggle with poor
demand and intensifying competition from China.
Central Banks: The Bank of Japan kept
its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25% as Japan’s political
instability raised uncertainty. The yen strengthened after the central bank
raised its growth forecast. The European Central Bank should
take a careful
approach to lowering rates and not rush further cuts, Governing Council
member Joachim Nagel said. Czech National Bank Vice
Governor Eva
Zamrazilova said that
the Czech economy is faced with inflationary risks that warrant a consideration
of pausing interest rate cuts.
----Economic
data: China's economy showed signs of stabilizing in October,
with factory
activity expanding after
five months of contraction, possibly thanks to stimulus measures. Euro-area
inflation may
have accelerated to
1.9% this month, though Bloomberg Economics sees no change in the headline
number at 1.7%. Consensus is for core price gains to have slowed marginally.
Deep
Dive: UK Budget Analysis
Chancellor
of the Exchequer Rachel
Reeves delivered a massive package of tax hikes alongside plans to ramp up
public investment in a historic first budget that aimed to revive the UK
economy—but fell
short of delivering a major boost to its growth prospects.
·
The budget mixes £41 billion in tax hikes with
£142 billion
in extra borrowing,
but UK Office For Budget Responsibility projections suggest only a short-term
growth boost, with a lower impact on output than previous Tory plans in the
long-term.
·
Reeves’ extra
borrowing plans mean
that debt (excluding the Bank of England) is projected to rise to almost 96% of
GDP in five years’ time, up from the estimate in March.
More
EU Officials to Visit Beijing to Discuss EV Tariffs - Bloomberg
Gilts,
sterling and FTSE 250 slump as markets digest Budget borrowing plans
Thursday
31 October 2024 3:56 pm
UK
government borrowing costs have climbed to their highest level this year as
investors digested the impact of the new
government’s first Budget.
Chancellor
Rachel Reeves announced that borrowing would be around £30bn a year higher to
help fund an investment push, which the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
described as “one of the largest fiscal loosenings of any fiscal event”.
The
Debt Management Office said that gilt issuance was likely to reach £300bn in
2025, up from the previous estimate of £278bn and the second largest figure on
record.
The
increase in investment is likely to push up inflation and slow the pace of
interest rate cuts, the OBR said on Wednesday.
Although
traders initially seemed to take the Budget in their stride, yields on
government debt have increased significantly over the past 24 hours or so.
The
yield on the benchmark 10-year gilt hit 4.55 per cent this afternoon, its
highest level since October last year. The yield on the rate-sensitive two-year
gilt hit its highest level since May as investors re-priced the short term path
for UK interest rates.
While
other government bonds were also selling off on Thursday, the sell-off in UK
government debt was more aggressive than elsewhere.
Investors
also sold the pound, which fell to its lowest level against the dollar since
August.
“The
volatility in the gilt market has been extraordinary, with the 10-year yield up
30bps in the past 24 hours alone,” Kyle Chapman, FX market analyst at Ballinger
Group said.
Kathleen
Brooks, research director at XTB said it was evidence that the Chancellor had
“overestimated” the market’s desire to absorb more government debt.
“Unfunded
borrowing to invest is seemingly treated the same way as unfunded tax cuts.
Higher public spending is not what investors want to see,” she added.
More
UK debt sell-off builds as markets digest Budget borrowing plans
Inflation
and mortgage rates elevated by Chancellor’s spending plans, says OBR
30
October 2024
Inflation and mortgage
costs are on track to be higher than previously expected due to the
Chancellor’s spending and borrowing plans, according to the fiscal watchdog.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced
almost £70 billion of extra spending each year, funded by business-focused tax
hikes and additional borrowing, in her maiden autumn Budget.
The
Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said the sharp increase in spending will
contribute to higher inflation in the short-term, although it will also help
drive stronger economic growth.
OBR
member David Miles said: “The inflation profile is a bit higher than it would
have been if there hadn’t been quite a substantial increase in spending.”
Inflation
is set to stay above the Bank of England’s target of 2% until 2029, according
to the latest forecasts, which upgraded their predictions for the next four
years.
This
means inflation is predicted to average 2.5% this year and 2.6% next year.
The
official forecaster said that inflation would then come down, assuming “the
Bank of England responds” to help bring it to the target rate.
The
Bank of England has used higher interest rates in recent years to help bring
down the rate of UK inflation after it soared to 11.1% in 2022.
The
interest rate, which helps to dictate mortgage rates, currently sits a 5% after
most recently being reduced in August by Bank policymakers.
Mr
Miles said the OBR’s new inflation forecasts and borrowing projections –
predicting the Chancellor will increase borrowing by £32 billion a year – mean
interest rates are likely to be 0.25 percentage points higher than they
otherwise would have been in the coming years.
As
a result, the yield on UK Government bonds, also
known as gilts, rose by around 2% following the announcement of the Budget.
Average
mortgage rates are expected to rise from an average of 3.7% to 4.5% over the
next three years, slightly above previous projections, according to the OBR.
More
Inflation and mortgage rates elevated by Chancellor’s spending plans, says OBR
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Nigerians suffering neurological impact of COVID-19 two years after — Study
31
October 2024
Several
individuals in Nigeria are experiencing neurological manifestations of
neuro-long COVID such as brain fog, mild cognitive impairment, fatigue,
sleep problems, headache, sensations of pins and needles, and muscle pain,
according to the findings of a study carried out by Nigerian and American
scientists.
The
collaborative study between Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine
and researchers from the University of Lagos, Unilag, and the Lagos University
Teaching Hospital, LUTH, highlights the urgent need for better screening,
diagnosis, and treatment of neuro-long COVID-19 in Nigeria.
“This
is why we have to start by researching to demonstrate the need for diagnosis
and clinical care of these patients and advocate for specialized outpatient
clinics. If you don’t know that something exists, you can’t treat it,”
Koralnik said.
Predominant
neurologic symptoms among study participants included brain fog (59.4 percent);
fatigue (55.7 percent); sleep problems (32 percent), headache (31 percent);
paresthesia, or numbness and pins and needles (11.3 percent), and myalgia, or
muscle pain (9.4 percent).
Of
the 66 participants with neuro-long COVID who underwent an in-person
neurological evaluation and cognitive screening, 16.9 percent completed the
Montreal Cognitive Assessment, a widely used cognitive impairment screening
assessment that had results consistent with mild cognitive impairment.
In
the future, the scientists plan to treat brain fog and cognitive dysfunction in
neuro-long COVID patients in Nigeria by applying the same techniques he and his
team are currently using in Chicago, Koralnik said. Long COVID principally
affects adults in their prime, affecting their quality of life and ability to
work, contributing to profound public health and socio-economic impacts.
Nigerians suffering neurological impact of COVID-19 two years after — Study
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Significant
extension of zinc battery lifespan
Researchers
develop new chemical method for improved energy storage
Date: October 28, 2024
Source: Technical University of Munich
(TUM)
Summary: The transition to renewable
energy requires efficient methods for storing large amounts of electricity.
Researchers have developed a new method that could extend the lifespan of
aqueous zinc-ion batteries by several orders of magnitude. Instead of lasting
just a few thousand cycles, they could now endure several hundred thousand
charge and discharge cycles.
The
transition to renewable energy requires efficient methods for storing large
amounts of electricity. Researchers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM)
have developed a new method that could extend the lifespan of aqueous zinc-ion
batteries by several orders of magnitude. Instead of lasting just a few
thousand cycles, they could now endure several hundred thousand charge and
discharge cycles.
The key
to this innovation is a special protective layer for the zinc anodes of the
batteries.
This
layer addresses previous issues such as the growth of needle-like zinc
structures -- known as zinc dendrites -- as well as unwanted chemical side
reactions that trigger hydrogen formation and corrosion.
The
key to this innovation is a special protective layer for the zinc anodes of the
batteries.
This
layer addresses previous issues such as the growth of needle-like zinc
structures -- known as zinc dendrites -- as well as unwanted chemical side
reactions that trigger hydrogen formation and corrosion.
The
research team, led by Prof. Roland A. Fischer, Chair of Inorganic and
Metal-Organic Chemistry at the TUM School of Natural Sciences, uses a unique material
for this purpose: a porous organic polymer called TpBD-2F. This material forms
a stable, ultra-thin, and highly ordered film on the zinc anode, allowing zinc
ions to flow efficiently through nano-channels while keeping water away from
the anode.
Zinc
Batteries as a Cost-Effective Alternative to Lithium-Ion Batteries
Da
Lei, Ph.D. student and lead author of the research published in Advanced
Energy Materials, explains: "Zinc-ion batteries with this new
protective layer could replace lithium-ion batteries in large-scale energy
storage applications, such as in combination with solar or wind power plants.
They last longer, are safer, and zinc is both cheaper and more readily
available than lithium." While lithium remains the first choice for mobile
applications like electric vehicles and portable devices, its higher costs and
environmental impact make it less attractive for large-scale energy storage.
Prof.
Roland A. Fischer adds: "This is truly a spectacular research result. We
have shown that the chemical approach developed by Da Lei not only works but is
also controllable. As fundamental researchers, we are primarily interested in
new scientific principles -- and here we have discovered one. We have already
developed a first prototype in the form of a button cell. I see no reason why
our findings couldn't be translated to larger applications. Now, it's up to
engineers to take up the idea and develop appropriate production
processes."
Significant
extension of zinc battery lifespan | ScienceDaily
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and the last weekend before the USA votes. In higher taxes and higher borrowing UK, voters remorse for last July’s vote. Would Iran dare attack Israel ahead of Tuesday’s US elections? Have a great weekend everyone.
“No, no!” said the UK Chancellor Reeves, the Hammer of the UK Pensioners.
“Sentence first—verdict afterwards.”
With apologies to Lweis Carrol and Alice.
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