Baltic Dry Index. 1634 +76 Brent Crude 72.08
Spot Gold 2605 US 2 Year Yield 4.34 +0.08
There is no reason products and services could not be swapped directly by consumers and producers through a system of direct exchange – essentially a massive barter economy. All it requires is some commonly used unit of account and adequate computing power to make sure all transactions could be settled immediately. People would pay each other electronically, without the payment being routed through anything that we would currently recognize as a bank. Central banks in their present form would no longer exist – nor would money.
Mervyn King. Former Governor of the Bank of England.
In the stock casinos, a profit taking pause or something more? Just why is Warren Buffett cashing out? Would you really bet against Warren Buffett?
Look away from that flattening US yield curve now.
Asia-Pacific markets fall after Wall Street
postelection rally fizzles
Updated Wed, Nov 13 2024 12:57 AM EST
Asia-Pacific stock markets were trading
mostly lower Wednesday, tracking losses on Wall Street as the U.S. post
election rally stalled overnight.
Asian traders assessed corporate goods data out of Japan, which showed
year-on-year producer price growth, or wholesale inflation, in October reached
its highest since July last year at 3.4%.
That was higher than the 3% growth
expected by economists polled by Reuters, and the 2.8% rise in September.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading down
1.5%, while the Topix declined 1.2%.
South Korea’s Kospi fell 2%, while the
Kosdaq Index was down 2.4%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down
0.75% to end at 8,193.4.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was trading
down 1%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was trading flat.
Investors have been assessing what the
re-election of Donald Trump in the U.S. could mean for Chinese
equities and Beijing’s stimulus policy.
Overnight in the U.S., stocks fell with
both the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 snapping five-day win streaks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped
382.15 points, or 0.86%, to 43,910.98, while the S&P 500 fell 0.29% to
close at 5,983.99. The Nasdaq
Composite ended the session marginally lower at 19,281.40.
Small-cap stocks, perceived as possible
beneficiaries of Donald Trump’s return as U.S. president, were largely under
pressure, with the Russell
2000 sliding about 1.8%.
Asia markets live: Stocks to open lower as Wall Street rally fizzles
Stock futures inch lower as investors look toward
key inflation report: Live updates
Updated Wed, Nov 13 2024 7:45 PM EST
U.S. stock futures ticked lower Tuesday
night as Wall Street awaited the latest consumer price index data for insights
on the pace of inflation.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped
33 points, less than 0.1%. S&P
500 futures inched lower by 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked
down 0.2%.
The major averages fell during Tuesday’s
main trading session as the market took a breather from its postelection rally.
The 30-stock Dow fell
around 382 points, or 0.9%. The S&P
500 declined 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite inched down
0.1%.
Part of the market decline Tuesday “is
just a little bit of a profit-taking based on the strong gains — especially
post election — and some of it may be just some positioning ahead of tomorrow’s
inflation report and Friday’s retail sales report,” said Tom Hainlin, senior
investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
Investors will be looking toward October’s
CPI numbers, scheduled for release Wednesday morning, to see how much the costs
of goods and services have risen. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones are
expecting the CPI to increase 0.2% for the month, which would put the 12-month
rate at 2.6%. The pace of price increases is also one of the key components to
informing the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut or maintain interest rates.
Other notable economic data releases later
this week include the producer price index data and retail sales numbers, which
will be announced on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
“This is a busy week with consumer prices,
producer prices, and retail sales. All of which could signal that the economy
remains strong,” said Scott Helfstein, head of investment at Global X ETFs.
To be sure, he added, “Ironically, markets
may be less sensitive to data this week after the election and the Fed cut last
week.”
Stock market today: Live updates
In other news, just how will US deeply indebted consumers pay down gargantuan debt when the next recession hits as it will? Who wins big and who looses big?
U.S. Consumer Debt Rises to $5.1 Trillion in the
Third Quarter
Total outstanding U.S. consumer debt stood
at $5.10 trillion for the third quarter of 2024, increasing at an annualized
rate of 3.28% (seasonally adjusted), according to the Federal
Reserve’s G.19 Consumer Credit Report. In general, consumer debt has been
slowing over the past two years, peaking at a high rate of 9.16% in the second
quarter of 2022. However, the third quarter of 2024 experienced an uptick in
growth from the previous quarter’s rate of 1.14%.
The G.19 report excludes mortgage loans,
so the data primarily reflects consumer debt in the form of student loans, auto
loans, and credit card debt. As consumer spending has outpaced personal income, savings rates have been declining and
consumer debt has increased. Previously, consumer debt growth had been slowing,
as high inflation and rising interest rates led people to reduce their
borrowing. However, the growth rate ticked up in the latest quarter, possibly
reflecting expectations of rate cuts that took place at the quarter’s end.
Nonrevolving Debt
Nonrevolving debt, largely driven by
student and auto loans, reached $3.75 trillion (SA) in the third quarter of
2024, marking a 3.46% increase at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).
This growth rate is notably higher than in the previous six quarters,
all of which remained below 2.5%.
Student loan debt balances stood at $1.77
trillion (NSA) for the third quarter of 2024. Year-over-year, student loan debt
rose 2.41%, the largest yearly increase since the third quarter of 2021. This
shift partially reflects the expiration of the COVID-19 Emergency Relief for student loans’ 0-interest
payment pause that ended September 1, 2023.
Auto loans, meanwhile, totaled $1.57
trillion, with a year-over-year increase of only 0.96%—the slowest rate since
2010. This deceleration can be attributed to multiple factors, including tighter lending standards, higher loan rates, and overall
inflation. Auto loan interest rates reached 8.40% (for a 60-month new car) in
the third quarter of 2024, marking the highest rate since the data series
began. Although the Federal Reserve has begun cutting rates, auto loan rates
tend to respond more slowly and are less directly influenced by these cuts.
Revolving Debt
Revolving debt, primarily credit card
debt, reached $1.36 trillion (SA) in the third quarter, rising at an annualized
rate of 2.79%. This marked a slight increase from the second quarter’s 2.58%
rate but was notably down from the peak growth rate of 17.58% seen in the first
quarter of 2022. The surge in credit card balances in early 2022 was
accompanied by an increase in credit card rates which climbed by 4.51
percentage points over 2022. This was an exceptionally steep increase, as no
other year in the past two decades had seen a rate jump of more than two
percentage points.
Comparatively, so far in 2024 the credit
card rate increased 0.17 percentage points. For the third quarter of 2024, the
average credit card rate held by commercial banks (NSA) reached a historic high
(since data has been recorded) of 21.76%, an increase from 21.51% last
quarter.
U.S. Consumer Debt Rises to $5.1 Trillion in the Third Quarter
In better news, if it happens, (make it happen,) could the global economy really get such a lucky get out of jail, break? But how would US and Canadian oil companies survive?
Oil could plunge to $40 in 2025 if OPEC unwinds
voluntary production cuts, analysts say
Published Tue, Nov 12 2024 10:35 PM EST
Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the
event that oil alliance OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts, said market
watchers who are predicting a bearish year ahead for crude.
“There is more fear about 2025′s oil
prices than there has been since years — any year I can remember, since the
Arab Spring,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, an oil
price reporting agency.
“You could get down to $30 or $40 a barrel
if OPEC unwound and didn’t have any kind of real agreement to rein in
production. They’ve seen their market share really dwindle through the years,”
Kloza added.
A decline to $40 a barrel would mean
around a 40% erasure of current crude prices. Global benchmark Brent is
currently trading at $72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures
are around $68 per barrel.
Given that oil demand growth next year
probably won’t be much more than 1 million barrels a day, a full unwinding of
OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 would “undoubtedly see a very steep slide in crude
prices, possibly toward $40 a barrel,” Henning Gloystein, head of energy,
climate and resources at Eurasia Group, told CNBC.
Similarly, MST Marquee’s senior energy
analyst Saul Kavonic posited that should OPEC+ unwind cuts without regard to
demand, it would “effectively amount to a price war over market share that
could send oil to lows not seen since Covid.”
However, the alliance is more likely to
opt for a gradual unwinding early next year, compared to a full scale and
immediate one, the analysts said.
The oil cartel has been exercising
discipline in maintaining its voluntary output cuts, to the point of extending
them.
In September, OPEC+ postponed plans to
begin gradually rolling back on the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary
cuts by two months in an effort to stem the slide of oil prices. The 2.2
million bpd cut, which was implemented over the second and third quarters, had
been due to expire at the end of September.
At
the start of this month, the oil cartel again decided to delay the planned
oil output increase by another month to the end of December.
Oil prices have been weighed by a sluggish
post-Covid recovery in demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy
and leading crude oil importer. In its monthly
report released Tuesday, OPEC lowered its 2025 global oil demand
growth forecast from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per
day.
The pressured prices were also
conflagrated by a perceivably oversupplied market, especially as key oil
producers outside the OPEC alliance like the U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil
are also planning to add supply, Gloystein highlighted.
More
Oil could plunge to $40 in 2025 if OPEC unwinds voluntary production cuts, analysts say
Finally, poor Europe. The EUSSR paymaster has gone broke. Political trouble now wracks Germany, France and Spain.
Germany sets early election date for February
after collapse of the ruling coalition
Published Tue, Nov 12 2024 6:01 AM EST
Germany is set to hold a federal election
in February, earlier than Chancellor Olaf Scholz had originally proposed after
his ruling coalition
collapsed last
week.
Scholz last week had hinted at an election
in March, saying he would hold a confidence vote in January.
The election is set to be held on February
23, according to sources within the parliamentary group of Scholz’ social
democratic party (SPD).
The confidence vote is now reportedly
due to take place on December 16. It is a necessary step ahead of
early elections in Germany as the chancellor must first call for the vote in
parliament. If the the majority of Bundestag members vote that they no longer
have confidence in the chancellor, he can then suggest a dissolution of
parliament to the German President.
The President in turn then has 21 days to
make the move which triggers an election that must take place within 60 days of
parliament being dissolved. The President also has the final say in setting the
election date.
Scholz had faced increasing
pressure to
hold an election sooner than he had suggested. Authorities over the weekend,
however warned of logistical difficulties and organisational risks if there was
not enough lead time until the election date.
The three-year-old ruling coalition
between Scholz’ social democratic party (SPD), the Green party and the free
democratic party (FDP) fell apart last week after the chancellor axed former
Finance Minister Christian Lindner.
Germany sets election date for February after ruling coalition collapse
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Trump
tariff threat looms large on several Asian countries — not just China — says
Goldman Sachs
Published
Mon, Nov 11 2024 1:53 AM EST Updated Mon, Nov 11 2024 9:00 AM EST
Donald
Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections has raised the specter of higher tariffs
on China — but it may not be the only Asian country that faces this
predicament, according to Goldman Sachs.
While
the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with China has decreased somewhat since the
Trump administration, deficits with other Asian exporters have risen
significantly and may come under increased scrutiny, Andrew Tilton, Goldman’s
chief Asia-Pacific economist, said in a recent note.
“With
Trump and some likely appointees focused on reducing bilateral deficits, there
is a risk that — in a sort of ‘whack-a-mole’ manner--burgeoning bilateral
deficits could eventually prompt U.S. tariffs on other Asian economies,” he
said.
A tariff is a tax
on imported goods,
but it isn’t paid by the exporting country. So U.S. tariffs will be paid by
companies looking to import products into the country, raising their costs.
“Korea,
Taiwan, and especially Vietnam have seen large trade gains versus the U.S.,”
Tilton observed, adding that Korea’s and Taiwan’s positions are reflective of
their “privileged positions” in the semiconductor supply chain, while Vietnam
has benefited from the redirection of trade from China.
In
2023, South
Korea’s trade surplus with the United States reportedly reached a record
$44.4 billion, the largest surplus with any country, with car exports making up
almost 30% of all shipments to the U.S.
Taiwan’s
exports to the United States in the first quarter of 2024 hit a
record high of $24.6 billion, increasing 57.9% compared with the same period
last year, with the largest export growth stemming from information technology
and audiovisual products.
Meanwhile, Vietnam’s
trade surplus with the U.S between January and September stands at $90
billion.
India
and Japan also run trade surpluses with the U.S., with Japan’s surplus
remaining relatively stable and India’s increasing moderately in recent years,
said Goldman Sachs.
Going
forward, these Asian trading partners might try to lower these surpluses and
“deflect attention” via various means, such as shifting imports toward the U.S.
where possible, Tilton expects.
“Trade
policy is where Mr Trump is likely to be most consequential for Emerging Asia
in his second term as U.S. president,” Barclays Bank analysts wrote in a note
dated Friday.
Trump’s
proposed tariffs are most likely to inflict “greater pain” on more open
economies in the region, with Taiwan more exposed to that threat than Korea or
Singapore, the bank’s economists led by Brian Tan wrote.
More
Trump tariff threat looms large on many Asian countries, not just China
[UK]
Grocery inflation rises again as household supermarket trips hit four-year high
12
November 2024
Grocery
price inflation rose again in October but households shrugged off increases
with a four-year high in supermarket shopping trips, figures show.
Supermarket
prices were 2.3% higher than a year ago last month, up slightly on September’s
2% increase but still within “typical levels”, according to analysts Kantar.
Despite
the rise, take-home sales across the grocers increased by 2% over the four
weeks to November 3 to reach £11.6 billion, making it the biggest sales month
of the year so far, and coinciding with the number of shopping trips made by
households reaching 480 million.
Halloween
played a part in galvanising sales, with 3.2 million households buying at least
one pumpkin, while spending on confectionery hit £525 million as sales of
chocolates and sweets climbed by 13% and 7% respectively.
What’s
interesting this month is the number of households who are already stocking up
the cupboards for the big day in December
Households are already
stocking up for Christmas, with 648,000 shoppers having already bought a
Christmas cake, and 14.4% of households picked up mince pies in October.
Fraser
McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, said: “October 2024
was the busiest month for the supermarkets since March 2020, when people were
preparing for the first national lockdown.
“Trip
numbers have been going up gradually for some time, but this steady march
hasn’t reached pre-Covid levels of shopping frequency just yet. The average for
each household is slightly over four trips per week.
“What’s
interesting this month is the number of households who are already stocking up
the cupboards for the big day in December. Some people think Christmas ads
hit our screens too soon but it’s clearly important for retailers to set out
their stalls early.”
More
Grocery inflation rises again as household supermarket trips hit four-year high
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19 pandemic
led to significant decline in cardiac arrest survival rates
Nov 11 2024
Out-of-hospital cardiac
arrest survival rates dropped significantly at the onset of the COVID-19
pandemic in 2020 and have continued to remain lower than in the pre-pandemic
years of 2015-2019, according to a preliminary study to be presented at the
American Heart Association's Scientific Sessions 2024. The meeting,
Nov. 16-18, 2024, in Chicago, is a premier global exchange of the latest
scientific advancements, research and evidence-based clinical practice updates
in cardiovascular science.
The analysis of data for
more than a half million adults in the U.S. who had an out-of-hospital cardiac
arrest between 2015-2022 also found lower survival rates in predominantly Black
and Hispanic communities.
Our results indicate that
the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic largely erased gains in out-of-hospital
cardiac arrest survival that had been achieved during the ten years before the
pandemic, and it exacerbated disparities among Black and Hispanic communities.
We need to make a concerted effort toward improving survival rates across the
board, with targeted efforts to support people in communities with a majority
of Black and Hispanic residents."
Eric Hall, M.D., study's
lead author and cardiology fellow at UT Southwestern Medical Center in
Dallas
Cardiac arrest occurs
when the heart suddenly stops beating. It is often fatal if appropriate steps,
such as activating emergency response starting with lay rescuer CPR, and early
defibrillation, are not taken immediately. Most out-of-hospital cardiac arrests
happen at home, in public settings or in nursing homes rather than at a
hospital, according to the American Heart Association.
In this study,
researchers compared out-of-hospital survival rates in the U.S. during the
pre-pandemic years (2015-2019) to when COVID-19 spread rapidly (2020-2022),
particularly in the early stages when cardiac arrest survival rates decreased
sharply. The team also examined whether survival rates improved in the years
since the pandemic began and if the improvements were shared equally among
various racial and ethnic communities.
The analysis found:
·
Before the pandemic, the
rate of overall out-of-hospital survival-to-hospital discharge was nearly 10%.
The cardiac arrest survival rate varied across communities: in those with
mostly Black and Hispanic residents, it was about 8%; and in multi-race communities,
it was close to 11%, compared to a survival rate of more than 11% in
predominantly white communities.
·
In 2020, out-of-hospital
cardiac arrest survival decreased to 9% overall; however, in Black and Hispanic
communities, survival declined to 6.6%, a relative decrease of -16.5% compared
to before the pandemic. This was a larger relative decrease than was seen in
multi-race integrated communities (-6.5%) or predominantly white communities
(-8.1%).
·
In 2021 and 2022, there
was little improvement in survival overall after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest
(9.1%), still significantly below pre-pandemic levels of 9.9%. There was modest
improvement in survival after cardiac arrest in majority Black and Hispanic
communities, such that the disparity in survival rates between these
communities and white communities narrowed to 2.6% in 2022, compared to a gap
of more than 3% for 2015-2019. Survival rates, however, remained lower for
Black and Hispanic communities in comparison to predominantly white communities
in every period studied.
The results surprised the
research team. "We expected that survival after out-of-hospital cardiac
arrest would have bounced back to levels before the pandemic," said Saket
Girotra, M.D., S.M., the study's senior author and an associate professor of
cardiology in the department of internal medicine at UT Southwestern Medical
Center in Dallas. "Even in 2022, survival rates remained worse than before
the pandemic."
More
COVID-19 pandemic led to significant decline in cardiac arrest survival
rates
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Leaf-inspired
graphene surfaces repel frost formation for a week
By Michael Irving November 10, 2024
Ice
wreaks havoc on surfaces, but we might have a new way to prevent it building
up. Scientists at Northwestern University have shown that textured surfaces
with thin layers of graphene oxide can stay completely frost-free for long
periods.
When
frost, ice and snow build up on surfaces, it can cause all kinds of trouble.
Roads and sidewalks become slippery and dangerous, power lines can be damaged,
and the aerodynamics of aircraft wings can be affected. Countering ice buildup
usually involves salt, heat or
good old fashioned shovels, but those come with environmental, energy and
effort costs, respectively.
Now,
scientists at Northwestern University have developed a new way to make
frost-repelling surfaces. It starts with a texture inspired by leaves, which
have tiny peaks and valleys that prevent frost from spreading uniformly across
the surface. In a 2020 study, the
team found that adding this kind of surface structure, on the scale of
millimeters, helped reduce frost formation by up to 80%.
In the
new study, the researchers took it a few steps further. They added a very thin
layer of graphene oxide, just 600 micrometers thick, to the surface of the
valleys, which were just 5 mm (0.2 in) wide between each peak.
“Graphene
oxide attracts water vapor and then confines water molecules within its
structure,” said Kyoo-Chul Kenneth Park, lead author of the study. “So, the
graphene oxide layer acts like a container to prevent water vapor from
freezing. When we combined graphene oxide with the macrotexture surface, it
resisted frost for long times at high supersaturation. The hybrid surface
becomes a stable, long-lasting, frost-free zone.”
Sure
enough, the new surface resisted 100% of frost formation for over 150 hours,
which is almost a week. That’s far longer than most other types of ice-resistant
coatings, and it does so passively, requiring no electricity or active
components. The surface itself should be long-lasting too.
“Most
other anti-frosting surfaces are susceptible to damage from scratches or
contamination, which degrades surface performance over time,” said Park. “But
our anti-frosting mechanism demonstrates robustness to scratches, cracks and
contaminants, extending the life of the surface.”
The
team says that the new surface structure could be applied anywhere frost
becomes a nuisance – on vehicle and aircraft surfaces, power lines, the insides
of freezers, maybe even sidewalks and roads.
The
research was published in the journal Science Advances.
Source: Northwestern
University
Leaf-inspired
graphene surfaces repel frost formation for a week
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Of all
the many ways of organising banking, the worst is the one we have today.
Mervyn
King. Former Governor of the Bank of England.
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