Baltic
Dry Index. 1576 -40 Brent Crude 74.20
Spot Gold 2688 US 2 Year Yield 4.34 +0.03
The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes stocks too expensive) and unjustified pessimism (which makes them too cheap). The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.
Benjamin Graham.
In the stock casinos, bubble on . What’s not to like, if you look away from the problems of the global economy, two never ending wars, a lamest lame duck US leadership, the German and western auto industry collapse, and a big new western global hypocrisy problem.
Asia
markets mostly rise while China stocks falter; investors assess Japan
inflation, Singapore GDP data
Updated
Fri, Nov 22 2024 11:35 PM EST
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly rose Friday, tracking a rally on Wall Street that saw the
S&P log gains for a fourth straight day.
As
the rare outliers, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index seesawed to lose 1.3% in a
choppy trading session, while mainland China’s CSI 300 declined over 1%.
Investors
might be taking a wait-and see approach while awaiting clarity on U.S.-China
tariffs, said Eugene Hsiao, head of China equity strategy at Macquarie Capital,
who believed additional stimulus announcements from Beijing may not come until
the next parliament meeting in March.
Investors
in Asia also assessed
Japan’s October consumer price index data. The core inflation,
excluding volatile fresh food prices, rose 2.3% from a year ago, slightly above
the estimated 2.2%, according to analysts polled by Reuters. That’s cooler than
2.4% in the previous month.
The
overall CPI came in at 2.3%, versus 2.5% in September.
Japan’s
Nikkei 225 jumped 0.86% while the broad-based Topix rose 0.68%. Elsewhere,
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 eked out
gains of 0.96%, reversing two days of losses.
South
Korean blue-chip Kospi index rose 1.08%
while small-cap Kosdaq gained 0.2%.
Singapore
third-quarter GDP expanded 5.4% from a year ago, notably outpacing the revised
3.0% in the prior quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew by
3.2%, accelerating from the 0.5% in the second quarter, according
to the Ministry of Trade and Industry.
Singapore
also raised its projection of this year’s economic growth to “around 3.5%,”
from “2.0 to 3.0%”
Overnight
stateside, the three major indexes rose, on track to close the week higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 462
points, or 1.06%, to finish at 43,270.35, while the S&P 500 gained 0.53%
to close at 5,948.71. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up
0.03% to end at 18,972.42.
Crude
oil prices rose more than 2% after Putin confirmed that Russia had fired a
hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile into Ukraine and warned that
more could follow, the latest in a series of escalations.
Asia-Pacific markets Live Updates: Japan CPI, Singapore GDP
Dow
closes more than 450 points higher as investors snap up stocks tied to the
economy: Live updates
Updated
Thu, Nov 21 2024 4:22 PM EST
The
Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 rose
Thursday as investors poured into cyclical stocks poised to benefit from an
accelerating economy and rotated out of technology shares.
The Dow gained 461.88
points, or 1.06%, to finish at 43,870.35. The S&P 500 added 0.53% to close
at 5,948.71. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite eked out a
0.03% gain to end at 18,972.42.
“This
is the week where everyone is rethinking the Trump trade,” said Mark Malek,
chief investment officer at Siebert. “People are taking it a little more
seriously. It’s not enough to just say ‘we think the sector is going to do
well’ — you have to have some answers.”
Some
of Thursday’s winners included bank stocks such as Goldman Sachs, industrials
giant Caterpillar and
retailer Home Depot. The Russell 2000 Index, viewed as a
barometer for small companies and beneficiary of a possible boost to the
economy from President-elect Donald Trump, added more than 1%.
Investors
assessed results for artificial intelligence chip juggernaut Nvidia, which was up more than 190% this
year into the results. Shares seesawed
after the company reported better-than-expected third-quarter results and
issued strong guidance. Some traders attributed earlier declines in the stock
to slowing revenue growth from previous quarters, or concerns that the
chipmaker didn’t exceed the most optimistic guidance estimate. Shares
ultimately ended the session higher by 0.5%.
“While
Nvidia’s story of huge beats has underscored the dramatic rise in AI growth,
investors would be prudent to consider whether Nvidia out pacing estimates to
such a degree is sustainable,” said AXS Investments CEO Greg Bassuk.
He
expects the ongoing “tug-of-war” between bulls and bears to fuel potential
volatility in the chipmaking stock.
Some
other technology stocks felt the pressure. Amazon slumped 2.2%, while Alphabet declined nearly 5%, falling
for a second session on antitrust fears. Snowflake was one
bright spot in the sector, popping nearly 33% after the company topped Wall
Street’s estimates and
lifted its product revenue guidance for the fiscal year. Salesforce rallied
3.1%.
Bitcoin
also hit a fresh milestone, hitting a fresh intraday all-time high and crossing the
$99,000 level for
the first time as investors maintained their hopes that a second Trump
presidency will usher in supportive regulation for the industry.
Stock market news for Nov. 21, 2024
Adani’s
indictment: How one of India’s biggest empires descended into chaos
Published
Thu, Nov 21 2024 4:04 AM EST
Gautam
Adani, the billionaire chairman of India’s Adani Group, was indicted on
Wednesday along with seven others in New York federal court for his involvement in a
large-scale bribery and fraud scheme.
Following
the news, the conglomerate saw shares of its
companies nosedive.
Adani Enterprises is one of the country’s top three conglomerates. It has
businesses in many sectors, including ports, airports, renewables and cement.
The
latest development comes after the conglomerate spent most of 2023 attempting
to move beyond allegations of accounting fraud and stock market manipulation
made by short seller Hindenburg Research.
Here’s
a timeline of Adani headlines in the past year, tracking a series of
allegations and counter-allegations since the publication of Hindenburg’s
report, up until his indictment.
January
2023
At
the start of last year, Hindenburg announced its
short position in Adani Group, accusing Adani of engaging in “brazen”
stock manipulation and accounting fraud, calling it the “largest con in
corporate history.”
Adani-affiliated
stocks saw a sharp sell-off after the report was released, and Adani’s net worth
plunged by $6 billion overnight.
The
conglomerate rebutted Hindenburg’s accusations of embezzlement and fraud with
a 413-page
response,
calling the latter’s report a “malicious combination of selective
misinformation,” adding that it has “always been in compliance with all laws.”
Around
that time, Adani Enterprises kicked off a 200 billion rupee ($2.45 billion)
secondary share sale which was fully subscribed in spite of the short-seller
storm.
March
2023 to May 2023
In
March, India’s Supreme Court sets up an independent six-member panel to
investigate the allegations made
in the Hindenburg report.
Then
in May, the court-appointed panel said it has “drawn a blank” in its probe into
Adani group, according to Reuters.
December
2023 to January 2024
By
the end of 2023, Adani Enterprise shares had recovered from the fallout and
concluded the year with smaller declines
of 26%.
India’s
top court in January announced that the Adani Group will not be subject to
additional investigations beyond the scrutiny by the market regulator,
providing significant relief to the conglomerate.
At
the time, Adani took to X, expressing his
gratitude for those who have “stood by” the group. “Truth has
prevailed,” he wrote, adding that “our humble contribution to India’s growth
story will continue.”
Adani
subsequently catapulted to become the richest person in Asia again, according
to the Bloomberg
Billionaires Index in
January.
More
Adani's indictment: How one of India's biggest empires descended into chaos
In UK news, yet another inept budget has big bad economic consequences.
UK firms flag over $1 billion in costs from
increase in national insurance, wages
By Reuters November 21, 20242:54 PM GMT
Nov 21 (Reuters) - British companies have
flagged an increase of about 820 million pounds ($1.04 billion) in costs
related to a rise in employers' social security contributions following Finance
Minister Rachel Reeves' maiden budget in October.
They also expect the increase in National Insurance
Contributions (NIC)
that employers pay and the minimum wages to fuel
inflation.
Here's what some companies across sectors
have said so far:
RETAILERS
British supermarket chain Sainsbury's (SBRY.L), opens
new tab,
which employs around 150,000 people, said it was facing headwinds of 140
million pounds from the national insurance change.
Marks &
Spencer (MKS.L), opens new
tab said
the national insurance increase would cost it around 60 million pounds in its
next financial year, which starts in April. A 6.7% rise in minimum wage will
add another 60 million pounds.
Britain's third-largest supermarket Asda said the
national insurance change would cost it 100 million pounds next year and warned
it would "probably be inflationary to some degree".
Primark-owner Associated
British Foods (ABF.L), opens new
tab said
the national insurance change would cost the clothing retailer, which employs
40,000 people in the UK, "tens of millions" of pounds, though the
rise in the minimum wage was anticipated.
Kitchen and joinery retailer Howden
Joinery (HWDN.L),
opens new tab said
the expected annualised cost impact of higher contributions to employers'
national insurance and the increase in the national minimum wage was around 18
million pounds.
LOGISTICS
International
Distribution Services (IDSI.L), opens
new tab,
the owner of Royal Mail, which employs nearly 130,000 people in Britain, said
changes to the NIC will cost around 120 million pounds a year.
TELECOM
BT (BT.L), opens new
tab,
employer of more than 100,000 people, said the NIC change would increase its
costs by close to 100 million pounds next year, about 0.5% of its total cost
base.
PUBS & RESTAURANTS
JD Wetherspoon (JDW.L), opens new
tab,
a major British pub operator that employs more than 40,000 people, said its
annual costs would increase by about 60 million pounds in 2025, with its NIC
rising by an estimated two-thirds.
British pub group Young & Co's
Brewery (YNGa.L),
opens new tab,
which employees about 7,700 people, warned that rising NIC and minimum wages
will increase its annual costs by about 11 million pounds, starting April.
HOMEBUILDERS
Persimmon (PSN.L), opens new
tab expects
costs from a hike in national insurance to be about 5 million pounds over the
next year.
Vistry (VTYV.L), opens
new tab also
estimated a 5-million-pound impact in fiscal year 2025 from the increase in
employer NIC.
More
UK firms flag over $1 billion in costs from increase in national insurance, wages | Reuters
In other news, the west’s hypocrisy exposed to the world. Arrest Putin but not Netanyahu. A big problem for the west now exists.
Netanyahu Faces Down War Crimes Arrest Warrant
November 21, 2024
The arrest warrant issued for Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by the International Criminal Court throws a potential
wrench into diplomacy and
ramps up tensions over his country’s conduct of the military campaign against
Hamas. Israel rejected the warrants and has vehemently denied the war crimes
charges, saying its operations adhere to international law. It’s up to
individual governments to enforce it and there’s little
chance that
Netanyahu will face trial.
Many of Israel’s Western allies, including
the UK, France, Germany and Canada, are ICC signatories, which could complicate
travel by Netanyahu. The Netherlands, for example, has said it will respect ICC
warrants, but Hungary called the move “shameful.” The court also issued
warrants for former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas military
chief Mohammed Deif, who
Israel says is dead.
Meanwhile, in Israel’s other military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon,
it’s enjoying a new
operational freedom.
Israel's Netanyahu Faces Down ICC War Crimes Arrest Warrant - Bloomberg
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
European
car sales flat in October, EVs gain ground, ACEA says
21
November 2024
(Reuters)
- New car sales in Europe were flat in October, after falling for two
consecutive months, industry data showed on Thursday, while the transition to
fully electric or hybrid models gained ground in the month.
An
uptick in total sales in Spain and Germany, of 7.2% and 6% respectively, offset
a contraction in France, Italy and Britain, the European Automobile
Manufacturers Association (ACEA) said.
WHY
IT'S IMPORTANT
European
automakers are struggling with weak demand, high production costs, and managing
the shift to EVs, while trying to fend off competition from China.
BY
THE NUMBERS
The
number of new vehicles registered in October in the EU, Britain and the
European Free Trade Association (EFTA) rose 0.1% year-on-year to 1.04 million.
Sales
of fully electric cars (BEVs) rose for the second consecutive month, up 6.9% in
October, while those of hybrid cars (HEVs) rose by 15.8%.
Registrations
in the EU, Britain and EFTA at Volkswagen rose 12.6%, while they fell by 16.7%
at Stellantis and by 0.4% at Renault.
Sales
were down 23.1% at EV maker Tesla and down 10% at China's SAIC Motor.
In
the EU, total new car registrations rose 1.1% year-on-year. Germany saw sales
increase with 6%, after three months of losses.
Electrified
vehicles - either BEV, HEV or plug-in hybrids (PHEV) - sold in the bloc
accounted for 55.4% of passenger car registrations in October, up from 51.3% in
the previous year.
QUOTES
"As
we head towards the end of the year, carmakers are increasingly rolling out
discounts and deals to sell off any unsold stock," said Felipe Munoz,
Global Analyst at market research firm JATO Dynamics in a separate statement on
Wednesday.
"This
is helping registration figures stabilise and shouldn't be mistaken as an
indication of market recovery", he added.
CONTEXT
The
European Union approved at the end of October increased tariffs on
Chinese-built electric vehicles of up to as much as 45.3%.
European car sales
flat in October, EVs gain ground, ACEA says
Stalled
European Electric Vehicle Sales Trigger 4,000 Job Cuts At Ford
Nov
20, 2024,02:04pm EST
Automobile
manufacturing giant Ford has announced 4,000 job cuts across its European
operations blaming stalled electric vehicle sales in the continent.
The
move is said to be part of a wider restructuring program, with the company's
employees in Germany and the U.K. bearing the brunt of the announced cuts that
will occur over the next three years.
Ford's
German workforce will see a reduction in headcount by 2,900 while 800 British
jobs will also go, with the remaining 300 job cuts spread across Europe. A
spokesperson in the U.K. said Ford had to act in the face of weak demand for
EVs and challenging trading conditions.
However,
the company is aiming to achieve all the job cuts through largely
"voluntary means" by the end of 2027, the spokesperson added.
While
Ford committed $50 billion in 2023 towards developing a new range of EVs as
well as expanding its current range, its foray has been anything but
challenging. The latest announcement is the company's second round of European
cuts in less than a couple of years, following a decision in February last year to
trim its workforce.
Ford
and its Western peers are facing strong competition from relatively cheaper EV
imports from China hitting the European market. In response, the European Union
has slapped tariffs on Chinese imports, which were raised in October
to as high as 45.3% in
variable bands depending on vehicle assembly lines and components.
Stalled European
Electric Vehicle Sales Trigger 4,000 Job Cuts At Ford
Risk
of new eurozone crisis is rising, warns central bank
20
November 2024
A
surge in borrowing and “sluggish” growth have pushed the eurozone to the brink
of debt crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) has warned.
The
ECB said investors were becoming increasingly concerned about government
borrowing across the
single currency bloc,
which has barely grown in recent years.
In
its latest financial stability review, it said:”Headwinds to economic growth
from factors like weak productivity make elevated debt levels and budget
deficits more likely to reignite debt sustainability concerns.”
It
added that a collapse of trust in politicians over the past three decades had
made it more difficult to deal with economic shocks.
The
central bank singled out France as a
key source of political instability that had “rekindled concerns about
sovereign debt sustainability”.
Europe’s
second largest economy is struggling to cut spending and control public
borrowing in a development that threatens to plunge Paris into a period of
prolonged economic and political turmoil.
Addressing
the wider challenges facing the bloc, the ECB’s report added: “Projected high
levels of sovereign debt in several countries limit the policy space available
for governments to respond to adverse shocks.
“While
the aggregate euro area debt-to-GDP ratio has declined considerably from its
pandemic peak, debt levels remain high in many countries”.
It
warned that debt-laden countries had little financial firepower to deal with
another crisis.
The
ECB said: “The longer-term trend of rising political fragmentation observed
over the past three decades has made it more challenging to form stable
government coalitions. This may contribute to delays in reaching agreement on
key fiscal and structural reforms while also raising economic policy
uncertainty. Furthermore, rising geopolitical uncertainty may imply an
additional burden for sovereigns in dealing with the consequences of
geopolitical fallout [such as] energy subsidies.
---- It
said Europe was walking a dangerous tightrope of low growth and high debt
against a backdrop of uncertainty for the bloc as Donald Trump prepares to
reenter the White House in January.
More
Risk of new eurozone crisis is rising, warns central bank
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Long-Term
Risk for Autoimmune, Autoinflammatory Skin Disorders Increased After COVID-19
John
Jesitus November 20, 2024
A
population-based study has shown a slightly elevated risk for patients’
developing skin disorders, including alopecia areata (AA), alopecia totalis
(AT), vitiligo, and bullous pemphigoid (BP), more than 6 months after COVID-19
infection. In addition, the authors reported that the COVID-19 vaccination
appears to reduce these risks.
The
study was published in JAMA
Dermatology on November 6.
‘Compelling
Evidence’
“This
well-executed study by Heo et al. provides compelling evidence to support an
association between COVID-19 infection and the development of subsequent
autoimmune and autoinflammatory skin diseases,” wrote authors led by Lisa M. Arkin, MD, of the
Department of Dermatology, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and
Public Health in Madison, Wisconsin, in an accompanying editorial.
Using
databases from Korea's National Health Insurance Service and the Korea Disease
Control and Prevention Agency, investigators led by Yeon-Woo
Heo, MD,
a dermatology resident at Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju,
Republic of Korea, compared 3.1 million people who had COVID-19 with 3.8
million controls, all with at least 180 days’ follow-up through December 31,
2022.
At
a mean follow-up of 287 days in both cohorts, authors found significantly
elevated risks for AA and vitiligo (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.11 for
both), AT (aHR, 1.24), Behçet disease (aHR, 1.45), and BP (aHR, 1.62) in the
post-COVID-19 cohort. The infection also raised the risk for other conditions
such as systemic lupus erythematosus (aHR, 1.14) and Crohn’s disease (aHR,
1.35).
More
Medscape Registration required.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene goes
mainstream as Levidian launches Gen2 LOOP decarbonisation tech
20
Nov, 2024
Newsdesk
Cambridge
CleanTech innovator Levidian has launched its second generation LOOP technology
– a major step forward for the graphene industry. It will see Levidian
deliver unparalleled levels of graphene production that is less carbon
intensive, more affordable and a higher quality than anything else on the
market today, the company says.
It has
installed its first industrial scale unit at its Cambridge HQ and is working
towards an annual production target by 2030 of 50,000 tonnes from a global
network of devices, which will make the business one of the world's largest producers
of graphene – if not the largest.
The
company plans to deploy its first industrial LOOP at a customer site in
partnership with clean hydrogen developer Hexla next year.
Graphene
has almost endless use cases and is already being deployed in a variety of
products to boost performance and drive down their carbon footprint, such as:-
- Batteries that charge 30 per cent
faster and last 27 per cent longer
- Concrete – a 30 per cent reduction in
carbon emissions, 35 per cent stronger
- Tyres – 23 per cent reduction in
rolling resistance
Levidian’s
market-leading LOOP system provides heavy emitters and hard-to-abate industries
such as landfill and aluminium producers with a route to both decarbonise their
processes and open up new revenue streams from the graphene and hydrogen that
is produced. This unlocks decarbonisation projects that might not otherwise
happen due to cost.
At the
heart of LOOP is a patented ‘nozzle’ where microwave energy is applied to crack
methane into its component parts, creating clean hydrogen and capturing carbon
in the form of high purity graphene.
A
single nozzle will be capable of producing around 15 tonnes of graphene a year
– enough, for example, to transform the performance of thousands of electric
vehicles with graphene-enhanced batteries and tyres so that cars can go further
for longer with less impact on the environment.
John
Hartley, CEO of Levidian, said: “We believe that graphene is going to play a
central role in helping the world’s most carbon intensive businesses to
decarbonise, solving the business case on decarbonisation projects thanks to
its short return on investment, and delivering performance improvements on just
about every product it touches.
“With
this latest technology release, we’re setting graphene on a pathway to the
mainstream, putting all the old issues of quality and scale aside to deliver
unparalleled levels of graphene production that is less carbon intensive, more
affordable and a higher quality than anything else on the market today.”
Levidian
already has 10 LOOPs deployed or under construction globally including a
pioneering biogas to hydrogen pilot at United Utilities’ Manchester
Bioresources Centre, which is supported by the Department for Energy Security
and Net Zero’s Hydrogen BECCS Innovation Programme.
Unlike
other graphene production techniques, which typically start with
environmentally harmful mining for graphite, Levidian cracks methane into
hydrogen and carbon using a patented plasma process.
More
Graphene goes
mainstream as Levidian launches Gen2 LOOP decarbonisation tech
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and Thanksgiving and Christmas fast approaching. A great big western
political leadership problem fast approaching too, thanks to the ill thought
out International Criminal Court that Blair’s Britain should never have joined.
Have a great weekend everyone.
Cash
combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless.
Warren Buffett.
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