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“It is better to be feared than loved.”
President Elect Trump,
with apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.
In
the stock casinos, the Great Trump Bubble bubbles on, assisted in Asia by a
much anticipated, China anti-deflation, spending rescue plan.
In
the real global economy, rising layoffs; a western auto industry sales collapse;
a promised tariff trade war starting at some point in 2025.
But
that’s next year, this is now, let the Great Trump Bubble, bubble on. Besides,
Warren Buffett needs buyers as he continues to take profits by selling stocks.
Asia-Pacific
markets climb after Fed rate cut boosts Wall Street rally; China’s NPC in focus
Updated
Fri, Nov 8 2024 8:45 PM EST
Asia-Pacific
markets climbed on Tuesday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut
interest rates by 25 basis points and major U.S. indexes continued
their postelection rally.
Investors
will be watching the final day of China’s National People’s Congress, which is
expected to announce fiscal stimulus to support the world’s second-largest
economy.
Japan’s
household spending in September declined at a slower pace than expected,
official data on Friday showed. Real household spending fell 1.1%, less than
the 2.1% decline expected by economists polls by Reuters.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 0.37%,
while the broad-based Topix rose 0.14%.
South
Korea’s Kospi was up
nearly 0.64%, and the small-cap Kosdaq gained 1.36%.
Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng index advanced
1.23%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 saw a gain of 0.37%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.91%,
on pace for a third straight day of gains.
Overnight
in the U.S., the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose Thursday, extending a rally after
Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election and the latest rate
cut from the Federal Reserve.
The S&P 500 gained 0.74% to
close at a record high of 5,973.10. The Nasdaq Composite advanced
1.51% to reach 19,269.46, its first close above the 19,000 mark.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was
little changed, ticking down less than one point. All three indexes hit
intraday record highs during the session. The Dow had gained 1,500 points in
the previous session.
Asia markets live: Fed
cut, China NPC, Japan spending data
What
Trump’s historic election victory means for the global economy
Published
Thu, Nov 7 2024 7:40 AM EST
Donald Trump’s election
victory over Vice President Kamala Harris marks a historic return to
the White House — an extraordinary political comeback that is likely to have
seismic ramifications for the global economy.
Speaking
to his supporters in Florida early Wednesday, Trump said an
“unprecedented and powerful mandate” would usher in “the golden age of
America.”
The
former president’s litany of campaign pledges include steep
tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation and
a push to withdraw
from key global agreements.
Analysts
say it is hard to pin down the extent to which Trump will seek to implement
these measures in his second four-year term, but the consequences of any will
have clear repercussions across the globe.
Lizzy
Galbraith, political economist at asset manager Abrdn, said it remains to be
seen exactly what style of presidency investors can expect when Trump returns
to the White House.
“Congress
has a really big part to play in this,” Galbraith told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on
Thursday.
“If
Trump does have unified control of Congress, as is looking very likely and is
what we expect to happen over the next few weeks and days, then he does have
greater latitude to implement his tax-cutting agenda, his deregulatory agenda,
for example, but we are also likely to see elements of his trade policy sitting
alongside that.”
On
tariffs, Galbraith said there were currently two schools of thought. Either
Trump seeks to use them as a bargaining tool to gain concessions from other
parties — or he delivers on his promise and implements them much more broadly.
Trump’s
favorite word
Trump
has previously described “tariff” as his favorite word, calling it
“the most beautiful word in the dictionary.”
In
an effort to raise revenues, Trump has suggested he could impose a
blanket 20%
tariff on all goods imported into the U.S., with a tariff of up
to 60% for Chinese products and one as high as 2,000% on vehicles built in Mexico.
For
the European Union, meanwhile, Trump has said the 27-nation bloc will pay a “big price” for not buying enough American exports.
More
What
Trump’s historic election victory means for the global economy
In
other news.
China
expected to announce highly anticipated fiscal stimulus package
Published
Thu, Nov 7 2024 9:56 PM EST
BEIJING
– China is widely expected to unveil more stimulus on Friday after its
parliament ends a five-day meeting.
Authorities
here have ramped up stimulus announcements since late September, fueling a
stock rally. President Xi
Jinping led a meeting on Sept. 26 that called for strengthening
fiscal and monetary support, and stopping the real estate market slump.
While
the People’s Bank of
China has already cut several interest rates, major increases in
government debt and spending requires approval by the country’s parliament,
called the National People’s Congress.
That
approval could be granted at the weeklong meeting of the legislature’s standing
committee. During a similar meeting in October of last year, authorities had
approved a rare increase in China’s deficit to 3.8%, from 3%, according to
state media.
Analysts
expect an
increase in the scale of fiscal support after Donald Trump — who has
threatened harsh tariffs on Chinese goods — won the U.S. presidential election
this week. But some are still cautious, warning that Beijing may remain
conservative and not issue direct support to consumers.
When
discussing planned fiscal support at a press conference last month, Minister of
Finance Lan Fo’an emphasized the need to address
local government debt problems.
More
China
expected to announce highly anticipated fiscal stimulus package
German
exports and industrial output fall more than expected
7
November 2024
BERLIN
(Reuters) - German exports and industrial output fell more than expected in
September, showing the weakness of two of the pillars of the German economic
model at the start of the fourth quarter.
Exports
fell by 1.7% in September compared with the previous month, data from the
federal statistics office showed on Thursday. The result compared with a
forecast 1.4% decrease in a Reuters poll.
The
data was released a day after Germany's ruling coalition collapsed following
Chancellor Olaf Scholz's dismissal of his finance minister, paving the way for
a snap election and political uncertainty.
The
release of the data also followed U.S. Donald Trump's victory in the U.S.
presidential election, which does not bode well for German industry and
exports.
Trump
said during his election campaign that he would impose a 10% tariff on imports
from all countries, and Germany would be the big loser if a Trump presidency
sparked a tit-for-tat trade war between the United States and Europe.
The
foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 17.0 billion euros ($18.30 billion)
in September, down from 21.4 billion euros in August.
Exports
to the United States account for around 3.8% of German GDP. Although exports
could potentially rise in the short term as importers try to get ahead of the
tariffs, they would probably fall if Trump follows through on his threat of
tariffs, said Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital
Economics.
Exports
to the U.S. were up 4.8% in September compared with August. Exports to China
decreased by 3.7%. Exports to European Union countries dropped by 1.8% on the
month.
Industrial
output fell by 2.5% on the month in September, data from the federal statistics
office showed.
This
compared with a forecast of a 1.0% decline in a Reuters poll.
"The
further fall in industrial output in September underlines that the crisis in
industry will be one of the many issues the any new coalition government will
have to deal with," Palmas said.
More
German exports and
industrial output fall more than expected
Nissan
to cut 9,000 jobs as it warns on profit
7 November 2024
Nissan Motor said it would
slash 9,000 jobs and cut global production capacity by a fifth, while revising
its annual profit outlook sharply lower as it battles headwinds in China and
the United States.
Japan’s third-largest
automaker cut its annual operating profit forecast by 70% to 150 billion yen
($975 million), marking its second downward revision after a 17% cut earlier
this year.
Operating profit for the
July-September second-quarter tumbled 85% to 32.9 billion yen, far below an
LSEG consensus estimate of 66.8 billion yen.
“Nissan will restructure its
business to become leaner and more resilient, while also reorganizing
management to respond quickly and flexibly to changes in the business
environment,” CEO Makoto Uchida said in a statement.
“These turnaround measures do
not imply that the company is shrinking,” he added.
Nissan’s global sales fell
3.8% to 1.59 million vehicles for the first half of the financial year, largely
due to a 14.3% drop in China where it has been looking to mount a comeback in
the face of local rivals.
U.S. sales fell almost 3% to
about 449,000 vehicles. Together, the two markets account for nearly half of
Nissan’s global sales by volume.
Uchida said that core models
in the U.S. did not sell as well as expected and that the automaker been
surprised by the rapid growth in demand for hybrids and did not have the hybrid
and plug-in hybrid line-up it needs for the market.
Nissan joins a growing number
of foreign automakers struggling in China, hurt by intensifying competition
from nimble Chinese manufacturers in the booming electric vehicle segment.
Honda Motor reported on
Wednesday a surprise 15% drop in second-quarter operating profit due to a heavy
sales drop in China, sending shares in Japan’s second-largest automaker down
5%.
Nissan plans 9,000 job cuts, slashes annual profit
outlook
BT
slashes sales outlook and axes another 2,000 jobs in ongoing overhaul
7 November 2024
Telecoms giant BT has cut its
annual sales outlook and revealed another 2,000 jobs have gone under its
ongoing plan to slash costs.
The group reported a 10% drop
in pre-tax profits to £967 million for the six months to September 30 as
revenues fell 3% to £10.1 billion amid a “competitive retail environment”.
It now expects annual
revenues to fall by 1% to 2%, blaming trading outside the UK and reductions to
sales of less profitable kits, while it also flagged a weaker performance in
the corporate and public sector.
BT had previously guided for
revenues to rise by up to 1% in 2024-25.
We have accelerated the
modernisation of BT Group in the first half of the year
Allison Kirkby, BT
But the company kept its
underlying earnings guidance unchanged, for around £8.2 billion.
The firm also laid bare the
pace of its previously announced jobs cull to slim down to between 75,000 and
90,000 workers by 2030 as it looks to shave billions off its cost base.
It said it slashed its
workforce by 2,000, or 4% year-on-year, to 118,000 and saved £433 million in
annual costs in the first half alone.
Allison Kirkby, BT’s recently
appointed chief executive, said: “We have accelerated the modernisation of BT
Group in the first half of the year.”
She said alongside widespread
cost cutting, the group was also investing heavily and ramping up its
full-fibre roll out.
“Our nationwide full-fibre
rollout has set new records, now reaching more than 16 million premises, and we
have further extended our industry-leading take-up rate to 35%.”
She said the group had also
expanded its 5G network to cover 80% of the UK population.
“The accelerated
modernisation of our operations, combined with a focus on connecting the UK,
puts us in a strong position,” she added.
In May, the group announced a
further £3 billion in cost cuts over the coming years, as Ms Kirkby expanded on
plans to turn around the struggling telecoms giant.
More
BT slashes sales outlook and axes another 2,000 jobs in ongoing overhaul
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
“When I used to read fairy tales, I fancied that kind of thing
never happened, and now here I am in the middle of one!”
President Elect Trump,
with apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.
Federal
Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point
Published
Thu, Nov 7 2024 2:00 PM EST
WASHINGTON — The Federal
Reserve approved its second consecutive interest rate cut Thursday, moving at a
less aggressive pace than before but continuing its efforts to right-size
monetary policy.
In a follow-up to September’s
big half percentage point reduction, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered
its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point, or 25
basis points, to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%. The rate sets what banks charge
each other for overnight lending but often influences consumer debt instruments
such as mortgages, credit cards and auto loans.
Markets had widely expected the move, which
was telegraphed both at the September meeting and in follow-up remarks from
policymakers since then. The vote was unanimous, unlike the previous move that
saw the first “no” vote from a Fed governor since 2005. This time, Governor
Michelle Bowman went along with the decision.
---- Treasury yields plunged
after roaring higher the day before.
The post-meeting
statement reflected a few tweaks in how the Fed views the economy.
Among them was an altered view in how it assesses the effort to bring down
inflation while supporting the labor market.
“The Committee judges that
the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in
balance,” the document said, a change from September when it noted “greater
confidence” in the process.
Recalibrating policy
Fed officials have justified
the easing mode for policy as they view supporting employment becoming at least
as much of a priority as arresting inflation.
The statement slightly
downgraded the labor market, saying “conditions have generally eased, and the
unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.” The committee again said the
economy “has continued to expand at a solid pace.”
More
Fed
rate decision November 2024:
Bank
of England cuts interest rates but warns Budget will stoke inflation
Thursday 07 November 2024 12:13 pm
The Bank of England has cut interest rates by 25 basis points
but signalled that it would take a “gradual” approach to further rate cuts as
the impact of the Budget filters through the economy.
Eight members of the Bank’s
Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to cut rates for the second time this
year, with only Catherine Mann dissenting.
It means that the benchmark
Bank Rate stands at 4.75 per cent, down from a peak of 5.25 per cent. The Bank
cut interest rates for the first time since the pandemic back in August.
The decision was widely expected
by markets given the progress on inflation in recent months. Figures out last
month showed that the headline rate fell to 1.7 per cent in September, its
lowest level since April 2021.
Inflation pressures ease
Underlying measures of
inflation, such as services inflation and wage growth, have also continued
easing, suggesting that domestic price pressures are waning.
“If the economy evolves as we
expect, it’s likely that interest rates will continue to fall gradually from
here,” Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank, said.
However, Bailey stressed that
the Bank “can’t cut interest rates too quickly or by too much”, given lingering
concerns over inflationary dynamics.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves
announced around £40bn in tax rises last week, helping to fund an average £70bn
increase in annual spending. The Bank said the combination of tax rises and
spending increases will force up inflation and boost growth.
In its latest forecasts, Bank
officials projected that inflation would be around half a percentage point
higher as a result of the Budget, peaking at 2.75 per cent in the middle of
2025.
Inflation will then return to
target in early 2027, around a year later than previously forecast.
It also flagged uncertainty
about the potential inflationary impact of the hike to employers’ national
insurance.
Bank of England warns on Budget fallout
Bank officials suggested
there was a great deal of uncertainty about the likely impact of the tax rises,
suggesting it would depend on “the degree and speed with which these higher
costs pass through into prices, profit margins, wages and employment”.
Compared to the Office for
Budget Responsibility, the Bank expects businesses to absorb slightly more of
the higher costs in profit margins rather than cutting wages for workers.
However, it still suggested
the measures would contribute to a “small decrease in potential supply” and a
“small upward impact on inflation”.
The Budget will also boost
growth by around 0.75 per cent compared to August’s forecasts, the Bank said.
This would see annual growth in 2025 pick up to 1.75 per cent, up from around
one per cent this year.
“This reflects the stronger,
and relatively front-loaded, paths for government consumption and investment
more than offsetting the impact on growth of higher taxes,” the Bank
said.
Growth will then fall back to
1.1 per cent in 2026 as the economy builds up some spare capacity, the central
bank said. It said the growth would reflect both the restrictive stance of
monetary policy and fiscal tightening.
The forecasts were based on
the assumption that the Bank Rate would fall to around 3.75 per cent by the end
of next year.
Traders have dialled back
their expectations for rate cuts due to the Budget, anticipating just two or
three rate cuts in 2025.
Bank of England cuts interest rates but Budget will slow further easing
Goldman
Sachs cuts UK growth forecast following Trump’s election victory
Wednesday
06 November 2024 4:38 pm
Goldman Sachs has cut its
growth forecasts for the UK and the eurozone following Donald Trump’s
election as
President of the United States.
The
investment bank warned that Trump’s proposed tariffs would have a noticeable
impact on economic growth in European economies next year.
During
the election campaign Trump threatened
to impose tariffs of
at least 10 per cent on any foreign imports, rising to 60 per cent for Chinese
imports.
“Renewed
trade tensions are likely to weigh materially on growth,” analysts at Goldman
Sachs said.
The
investment bank now expects the UK economy to grow by 1.4 per cent next year,
down from a previous forecast of 1.6 per cent. It expects growth to remain at
1.4 per cent in 2026.
Goldman
also reduced its forecasts for the eurozone, anticipating that the bloc will
grow 0.8 per cent this year, a downgrade from its earlier forecast of 1.1 per
cent.
“We
expect the bulk of the growth hit to materialise between 2025Q1 and 2025Q4,”
the analysts said.
If
the European economies were to retaliate one-for-one, then the impact on growth
would be higher with UK GDP taking a 0.7 per cent hit and the EU a 1.0 per cent
blow.
While
the analysts expected that the tariffs would likely be lower than 10 per cent,
they noted that the “actual magnitude of the tariff increases” might matter
less than the “uncertainty created”.
Addressing
the issue of tariffs in the Treasury Committee this afternoon, Chancellor
Rachel Reeves stressed that the UK was not a “passive actor” in the trading
relationship with the US.
“We
will make strong representations about the importance of free and open trade,
not just between ourselves and the United States, but globally,” she said.
“I
absolutely do not want to sound in any way sanguine. On the other hand, I am
optimistic about our ability to shape the global economic agenda, as we have
under successive governments.”
Asked
whether she would impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, Reeves said “we’re not
in that world and I’m not I’m not going to speculate.”
Goldman Sachs cuts UK growth forecasts following Trump's victory
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Study at Tallaght University Hospital links chest pains in children to Covid-19 vaccine
5
November 2024
A
new study has revealed that thirty children were rushed to the emergency
department at Tallaght University
Hospital with chest pains after receiving their Covid-19 jabs during an
11-month period of the pandemic.
The
research found that a mix of 23 boys and 7 girls, aged between 12 and 15,
presented at the hospital with symptoms including chest pains, shortness of
breath, palpitations, and dizziness. Each child had received an mRNA vaccine
for Covid-19 within six weeks of their presentation – 17 after their second
dose, and 13 after their first.
The
study, conducted by a doctor at the hospital's Department of Paediatric
Emergency Medicine, noted that while chest pain following Covid-19 vaccines has
been reported in adults, there has been little research on such cases among
children. The paper, published in the latest edition of the Irish Medical
Journal, aimed to investigate how these instances were handled.
It
found that all 30 children underwent an electrocardiogram (ECG) and all but two
had troponin levels measured – a test used to detect a heart attack or other
cardiac injury. The majority of ECGs were found to be normal, and mere five
required further discussion or review with the hospital's cardiology team.
Impressively,
none of the 30 patients assessed went on to develop conditions like
myocarditis, pericarditis, or cardiomyopathy. Clinical follow-up revealed that
following mRNA vaccines, the "vast majority" experienced only a mild,
self-limited bout of symptoms.
Significantly,
even those who had symptoms after their first jab confidently went on to
receive their second dose, reports the
Irish Mirror.
The study's author highlighted the research underlines the importance of
continued monitoring for 'at-risk' groups, notably males and those receiving a
second dose, whilst also aiming to uphold "continued public confidence in
vaccine safety".
In
cases where patients present with new-onset chest pains or cardiac symptoms
post-mRNA vaccination, international standards unanimously recommend an ECG and
troponin testing; if results are clear, there's usually no need to refer to a
cardiologist. It was reported that at Tallaght Hospital, they adhered strictly
to these guidelines.
Study at Tallaght University Hospital links chest pains in children to Covid-19 vaccine
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Perovskite-silicon
tandem solar cell based on copper(I) thiocyanate achieves 31.46% efficiency
A
Saudi-Chinese research team has fabricated a perovskite-silicon tandem solar
cell without a hole transport layer (HTL) in the perovskite top cell. This
innovative strategy, based on the co-deposition of copper(I) thiocyanate and
perovskite in the top cell absorber, was intended at solving typical issues of
HTLs in tandem devices.
November
7, 2024 Emiliano Bellini
An
international research team has fabricated a 1 cm2 perovskite-silicon tandem
solar cell that utilizes a top cell based on a perovskite absorber integrating
inorganic copper(I) thiocyanate (CuSCN).
“A
co-deposition strategy of CuSCN and perovskite is firstly developed to solve
the key technical challenge to fabricate perovskite top cell on textured
silicon bottom cells,” the research's corresponding author, Xingbo Yang,
told pv magazine. “Besides, the inorganic CuSCN is also applied in
perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells for the first time and the resultant
devices demonstrate extraordinary light and damp-heat stabilities.”
---- Tested
under standard illumination conditions, the tandem device achieved a power
conversion efficiency of 31.46%. It was also able to retain 93.8% of the
initial efficiency after about 1,200 h of maximum power point tracking at 45 C,
and 90.2% after over 1,000 h of damp-heat testing at 85 C and 85% relative
humidity.
“To be
commercially valuable, the scale-up of tandem devices has been verified with an
aperture area of 4 cm2 realized by both spin-coating and
blade-coating, demonstrating competitive aperture power conversion efficiencies
of 28.14% and 25.23%, respectively,” Yang added. “It indicates great
scalability and universality of our co-deposition method.”
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and an interesting few
week’s ahead before Trump World starts in mid-January. But before then, will President Biden pardon President
Elect Trump, avoiding President Trump setting an awkward precedent of a sitting
President self-pardoning himself? Have a great weekend everyone.
“I’m not strange, weird,
off, nor crazy, my reality is just different from yours.”
President Elect Trump,
with apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.
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