Monday, 18 November 2024

Stocks Wait. Biden In Brazil. WW3 Gets Ever Closer.

Baltic Dry Index. 1785 +93           Brent Crude  71.18

Spot Gold 2586                    US 2 Year Yield 4.31  -0.03

Gold and silver, like other commodities, have an intrinsic value, which is not arbitrary, but is dependent on their scarcity, the quantity of labour bestowed in procuring them, and the value of the capital employed in the mines which produce them.

David Ricardo.

In the stock casinos, a mixed start to the week, except for Samsung’s stock buyback plan.

In politics, is lame duck Biden trying to force Trump into a deeper US proxy war on Russia in Ukraine? The stumble towards World War Three, Nuclear War One, now increasingly resembles the stumble into World War One.

Meanwhile lame duck President Biden himself is on leg two of his South American farewell tour, currently in Brazil “where the nuts come from,” attending the latest G-20 junket in Rio.

Asia markets mostly rise as investors await China LPR, Japan inflation data this week

Updated Sun, Nov 17 2024 10:27 PM EST

Asia-Pacific stocks mostly rose Monday as markets kickstarted what ING calls a “quiet” week for economic data from the region.

Key data this week from Asia will include China’s loan prime rate, set to be released Wednesday. ING said no change is expected in China’s LPR, with the one-year rate currently at 3.1% and the five-year LPR at 3.6%.

Japan will release trade data on Tuesday and October headline inflation numbers on Friday, while Australia’s central bank on Tuesday will release minutes of its meeting earlier this month.

Japan’s markets were the outlier in the region, with the benchmark Nikkei 225 down 0.78%, and the broad-based Topix 0.47% lower.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 2.09%, leading gains in Asia, powered by the rise in heavyweight Samsung Electronics, while the small-cap Kosdaq reversed losses to climb 0.93%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was marginally up.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was 1.38% higher, while mainland China’s CSI 300 gained 0.78%.

On Friday in the U.S., all three major indexes on Wall Street declined as investors worried about the path of interest rates and sold off pharmaceutical stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.70%, while the S&P 500 slipped 1.32% and the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 2.24%.

Losses in pharmaceuticals weighed on the blue-chip Dow and the S&P 500, with Amgen falling about 4.2% and Moderna sliding 7.3%.

This comes after President-elect Donald Trump said on Thursday that he planned to nominate vaccine-skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Asia markets live: China LPR, Japan inflation

Samsung shares climb more than 7% after surprise $7 billion buyback plan

Published Sun, Nov 17 2024 10:08 PM EST

Shares of Samsung Electronics jumped on Monday after the company unveiled a surprise plan to buy back about 10 trillion South Korean won ($7.19 billion) worth of its own stock over the next 12 months.

The South Korean tech giant’s stock rose more than 7% in Seoul, after shares had already surged 7.21% on Friday, following news that the company reached a preliminary agreement with its largest workers union, which went on strike in July.

Samsung last bought back shares in November 2017, according to data maintained by LSEG.

In a regulatory filing, the company said that 3 trillion won of shares will be bought back in the next three months and canceled. While the repurchase of the remaining 7 trillion won worth of shares will be “authorized accordingly by the Board, which will decide on ways to enhance shareholder value, including when and how to use the treasury shares,” it added.

Shares of Samsung had hit a four year low on November 15, after the company posted a disappointing profit guidance for its third quarter and amid worries about tariffs after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump won the presidential election.

More

Samsung shares climb more than 7% after surprise $7 billion buyback plan

Stock futures open little changed as traders await Nvidia earnings: Live updates

Updated Mon, Nov 18 2024 7:01 PM EST

Stock futures were slightly higher on Sunday night as Wall Street awaits a major earnings week and monitors a seemingly fizzled out postelection rally.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 16 points, or less than 0.1%. S&P futures added 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2%.

Sunday’s move follows a tough week for the three major benchmarks, which are now off their highs that were seen in the aftermath of President-elect Donald Trump’s victory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week lower at 43,444.99 points, after earlier surging past 44,000 for the first time. The S&P 500 also slipped last week to end at 5,870.62, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped to end at 18.680.12 last week.

Concerns about the path of interest rates continue to weigh on investors’ minds, particularly after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the central bank is not “in a hurry” to cut rates given the economy’s strong growth and a solid labor market — which drove last week’s selloff. Most investors are now pricing in a year-end overnight lending rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

The next major catalyst for the market this week will be Nvidia earnings, which are set to be released on Wednesday. Traders will be watching for guidance about the company’s demand for its Blackwell AI chips.

Earnings from Palo Alto Networks and several major retailers, including WalmartTarget and Ross, are also on deck this week. So far, with 93% of S&P 500 companies reporting results, three-quarters of them have reported a positive EPS surprise and 61% have reported a positive revenue surprise, according to a Friday note from FactSet’s John Butters.

Stock futures open little changed as traders await Nvidia earnings: Live updates

Biden allows Ukraine to use U.S. arms to strike inside Russia

Published Sun, Nov 17 2024 1:31 PM EST Updated Sun, Nov 17 20246:03 PM EST

President Joe Biden’s administration has allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-made weapons to strike deep into Russia, two U.S. officials and a source familiar with the decision said on Sunday, in a significant reversal of Washington’s policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range attacks in the coming days, the sources said, without revealing details due to operational security concerns.

The move comes two months before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20 and follows months of pleas by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to allow Ukraine’s military to use U.S. weapons to hit Russian military targets far from its border.

The change comes largely in response to Russia’s deployment of North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces, a development that has caused alarm in Washington and Kyiv, a U.S. official and a source familiar with the decision said.

The White House and the State Department declined to comment. The Ukrainian foreign ministry and president’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Russia has warned that it would see a move to loosen the limits on Ukraine’s use of U.S. weapons as a major escalation.

Ukraine’s first deep strikes are likely to be carried out using ATACMS rockets, which have a range of up to 190 miles (306 km), according to the sources.

While some U.S. officials have expressed skepticism that allowing long-range strikes will change the war’s overall trajectory, the decision could help Ukraine at a moment when Russian forces are making gains and possibly put Kyiv in a better negotiating position when and if ceasefire talks happen.

It is not clear if Trump will reverse Biden’s decision when he takes office. Trump has long criticized the scale of U.S. financial and military aid to Ukraine and has vowed to end the war quickly, without explaining how.

A Trump spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment. But one of Trump’s closest foreign policy advisers, Richard Grenell, criticized the decision.

“Escalating the wars before he leaves office,” Grenell said, in an X post responding to the news.

---- Since Trump’s Nov. 5 victory, senior Biden administration officials have repeatedly said they would use the remaining time to ensure Ukraine can fight effectively next year or negotiate peace with Russia from a “position of strength.”

‘Way too late’

The U.S. believes more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to eastern Russia and that most of them have moved to the Kursk region and have begun to engage in combat operations.

Russia is advancing at its fastest rate since 2022 despite taking heavy losses, and Ukraine said it had clashed with some of those North Korean troops deployed to Kursk.

Stretched by personnel shortages, Ukrainian forces have lost some of the ground they captured in an August incursion into Kursk that Zelenskyy said could serve as a bargaining chip.

More

Biden allows Ukraine to use U.S. arms to strike inside Russia

Finally, more AI hype or a real transformation?

A Powerful AI Breakthrough Is About to Transform the World

The technology driving ChatGPT is capable of so much more. What’s coming next will make talking bots look like mere distractions.

Nov. 15, 2024 9:00 pm ET

The AI revolution is about to spread way beyond chatbots.

From new plastic-eating bacteria and new cancer cures to autonomous helper robots and self-driving cars, the generative-AI technology that gained prominence as the engine of ChatGPT is poised to change our lives in ways that make talking bots look like mere distractions.

While we tend to equate the current artificial-intelligence boom with computers that can write, talk, code and make pictures, most of those forms of expression are built on an underlying technology called a “transformer” that has far broader applications. 

First announced in a 2017 paper from Google researchers, transformers are a kind of AI algorithm that lets computers understand the underlying structure of any heap of data—be it words, driving data, or the amino acids in a protein—so that it can generate its own similar output.

The transformer paved the way for OpenAI to launch ChatGPT two years ago, and a range of companies are now working on how to use the innovation in new ways, from Waymo and its robot taxis to a biology startup called EvolutionaryScale, whose AI systems are designing new protein molecules. 

The applications of this breakthrough are so broad that in the seven years since the Google research was published, it has been cited in other scientific papers more than 140,000 times.

It’s hardly an exaggeration to say that this one collection of algorithms is the reason that Nvidia is now the most valuable company on earth, that data centers are popping up all over the U.S. and the world, driving up electricity consumption and rates, and that chief executives of AI companies are often—and perhaps mistakenly—asserting that human-level AI is just around the corner.

----The Google researchers who wrote that seminal 2017 paper were focused on the process of translating languages. They realized that an AI system that could digest all the words in a piece of writing, and put more weight on the meanings of some words than others—in other words, read in context—could make much better translations.

For example, in the sentence “I arrived at the bank after crossing the river,” a transformer-based AI that knows the sentence ends in “river” instead of “road” can translate “bank” as a stretch of land, not a place to put your money.

In other words, transformers work by figuring out how every single piece of information the system takes in relates to every other piece of information it’s been fed, says Tim Dettmers, an AI research scientist at the nonprofit Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence.

That level of contextual understanding enables transformer-based AI systems to not only recognize patterns, but predict what could plausibly come next—and thus generate their own new information. And that ability can extend to data other than words.

“In a sense, the models are discovering the latent structure of the data,” says Alexander Rives, chief scientist of EvolutionaryScale, which he co-founded last year after working on AI for Meta Platforms, the parent company of Facebook.

EvolutionaryScale is training its AI on the published sequences of every protein the company’s researchers can get their hands on, and all that we know about them. Using that data, and with no assistance from human engineers, his AI is able to determine the relationship between a given sequence of molecular building blocks, and how the protein that it creates functions in the world.

More

A Powerful AI Breakthrough Is About to Transform the World - WSJ

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Boeing issues layoff notices to 400-plus workers as it begins drastic cuts

November 16, 2024

Boeing has delivered layoff notices to more than 400 members of its professional aerospace labor union, part of thousands of cuts planned as the company struggles to recover from financial and regulatory trouble as well as an eight-week strike by its Machinists union.

The pink slips went out last week to members of the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace, or SPEEA, The Seattle Times reported. The workers will remain on the payroll through mid-January.

Boeing announced in October that it planned to cut 10% of its workforce, about 17,000 jobs, in the coming months. CEO Kelly Ortberg told employees the company must “reset its workforce levels to align with our financial reality.”

The Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace, or SPEEA, union said the cuts had affected 438 members. The union’s local chapter has 17,000 Boeing employees who are largely based in Washington, with some in OregonCalifornia and Utah.

Of those 438 workers, 218 are members of SPEEA’s professional unit, which includes engineers and scientists. The rest are members of the technical unit, which includes analysts, planners, technicians and skilled tradespeople.

Eligible employees will receive career transition services and subsidized health care benefits for up to three months. Workers will also receive severance, typically about one week of pay for every year of service.

Boeing’s unionized Machinists began returning to work earlier this month following the strike.

The strike strained Boeing’s finances. But Ortberg said on an October call with analysts that it did not cause the layoffs, which he described as a result of overstaffing.

More

Boeing issues layoff notices to 400-plus workers as it begins drastic cuts

Gold gains 1% as dollar rally stalls

November 18, 2024

(Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Monday after last week's sharp declines, as a rally in the dollar paused, while market participants awaited comments from Federal Reserve officials this week for more clues on the U.S. interest rate path.

Spot gold firmed 1% to $2,587.49 per ounce by 0150 GMT, after falling to its worst week in more than three years on Friday. U.S. gold futures inched 0.9% higher to $2,592.00.

The dollar was flat after rising 1.6% last week. A weaker dollar makes bullion less expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

"Gold prices are due for a slight recovery following recent bout of hefty sell-offs and we may expect some drift higher with some rollover in the dollar," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.

"We can expect less-dovish rhetoric from U.S. policymakers in December, as the Fed sets the stage for a potential rate hold in January. This has not been fully priced in by markets yet, so any need for recalibration may still pose an obstacle for gold."

At least seven U.S. central bank officials are due to speak this week. Strong U.S. economic and inflation data continue to reshape the debate among Fed policymakers over the pace and extent of rate cuts as investors last week further downgraded their expectations for a rate reduction in December.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. retail sales increased slightly more than expected in October, highlighting the economy's resilience.

Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of holding non-yielding bullion.

Investors also took stock of news that President Joe Biden's administration has allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-made weapons to strike deep into Russia, in a significant reversal of Washington's policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Spot silver rose 1.1% to $30.53 per ounce, platinum was up 1.1% at $948.95 and palladium climbed 1.2% to $962.44.

Gold gains 1% as dollar rally stalls

Goldman Says ‘Go for Gold’ as Central Banks Buy, Fed Cuts in ‘25

Mon 18 November 2024 at 3:31 am GMT 

(Bloomberg) -- Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which listed the metal among top commodity trades for 2025 and said prices could extend gains during Donald Trump’s presidency.

“Go for gold,” analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note, reiterating a target of $3,000 an ounce by December 2025. The structural driver of the forecast is higher demand from central banks, while a cyclical lift would come from flows to exchange-traded funds as the Federal Reserve cuts, they said.

Gold has staged a powerful rally this year — hitting successive records — before pulling back in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s White House win, which boosted the dollar. The commodity’s advance has been underpinned by increased official-sector buying, and the Fed’s pivot to easier policy. Goldman said a Trump administration may also aid bullion.

An unprecedented escalation of trade tensions could revive speculative positioning in gold, they said. In addition, rising concerns over US fiscal sustainability may also aid prices, they added, noting that central banks — especially those holding large US Treasury reserves — may opt to buy more of the precious metal.

Spot gold was last at about $2,589 an ounce, having peaked above $2,790 last month.

More

Goldman Says ‘Go for Gold’ as Central Banks Buy, Fed Cuts in ‘25

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Northwestern study links COVID-19 RNA to cancer-fighting cells

November 15, 2024

CHICAGO - New research from Northwestern University shows a surprise connection between COVID-19 and cancer regression.

Researchers found the RNA from the virus triggers a unique type of immune cell with anti-cancer fighting abilities. They say this new information opens the door for new research and a way to treat cancer.

Doctors say this research was inspired by a trend they noticed during the pandemic.

"Some patients who had stage four cancer, when they develop severe COVID, we found that some of their cancer sites or the cancer in several sites shrunk," said Dr. Ankit Bharat.

So, researchers at Northwestern started their journey to figure out why this might be happening. They discovered when someone gets badly infected with COVID, the virus can actually enter the bloodstream, shedding its RNA. That gets circulated and becomes a very common immune cell called monocytes.

"They convert these monocytes into friendly cells. Basically, they convert them into cells that protect those cancer cells against second invasion by the immune system of the host. So what we found was that the RNA of the COVID virus could convert these monocytes into not those cancer-friendly cells, but cancer-fighting cells," said Bharat.

The team is hoping that with more research, they can create therapies aimed at these specific cells to tackle cancers that are tough to handle right now.

Northwestern study links COVID-19 RNA to cancer-fighting cells

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Moving graphene from the lab to fab: How 2D materials could transform everyday electronics

November 15, 2024

Graphene has lived up to its promise in the lab. Now, EU researchers are working on supporting its wider adoption in high-end electronics, photonics and sensors.

Dr. Inge Asselberghs has been closely involved in advanced graphene research over the past decade. Today, she's at the forefront of efforts to bring this "miracle material" out of the lab and into society.

Asselberghs is part of an international team of researchers that set up a prototype manufacturing facility for graphene and other 2D materials at Imec, a leading global nanoelectronics research institute based in Leuven, Belgium.

The team pools expertise from 11 universities, research institutes and companies in six European countries as part of the 2D experimental pilot line (2D-EPL). Their aim is to advance the production and integration of graphene in prototypes for use in high-end electronics, photonics and sensors.

Graphene has the potential to fundamentally transform many areas of technology. Consisting of just a single layer of carbon atoms, it is extremely thin.

Graphene is exceptionally strong, light and flexible, and able to conduct both heat and electricity. This makes it highly adaptable for a wide range of products, from next-generation batteries to advanced aeronautic and space applications.

"The hype started as soon as graphene was discovered. It was much stronger than initially anticipated," said Asselberghs.

Recognizing the economic potential of graphene and other 2D materials, the EU launched the 10-year Graphene Flagship initiative in 2013, bringing together 178 academic and industrial partners with a budget of €1 billion to boost research in this area. 2D-EPL is part of this wide-ranging initiative.

Experimental prototypes

The aim of the experimental pilot line, set up in multiple locations, was to accelerate the use of graphene and other layered materials in the manufacture of new prototypes for electronics, photonics, sensors and optoelectronics. This will be a crucial step before 2D materials can be integrated into full-scale chip manufacturing.

"Our first goal was to figure out how to make graphene devices on a wafer scale by modifying existing processes so that they can be handled in automated fabrication facilities," said Asselberghs.

Wafers are thin round slices of material for use in electronics and other industries. Reaching the stage where graphene can be routinely included in sophisticated devices would be a major milestone.

More

Moving graphene from the lab to fab: How 2D materials could transform everyday electronics

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared. 

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.

Adam Smith.

No comments:

Post a Comment