Baltic Dry Index. 1814 -13 Brent Crude 76.93
Spot
Gold 2503 U S 2 Year Yield 3.91 +0.04
Occupants of public offices love power and are prone to abuse
it.
George Washington.
In
the stock casinos, to infinity and beyond, just like 1929, but no one remembers
1929.
Most
in the stock casinos don’t even remember 2007-2010. They only remember 2020-2023
and all that free Covid cash and zero interest rates.
Besides,
there’s a new AI dot.con bubble underway and this time it’s different right?
Well
maybe, but come November American voters must pick between two economic lunatics
as their next President. Neither has an economic plan that makes any sense, though
each risk speeding up global de-dollarisation.
But
for now, dress up Friday went very well.
The
only good news around, if it actually happens, OPEC+ say they will restore
some closed down crude oil production in the coming quarter starting in October.
Stocks
close higher Friday, S&P 500 posts fourth straight winning month: Live
updates
Updated
Fri, Aug 30 2024 4:44 PM EDT
Stocks
rose on Friday, with the Dow
Jones Industrial Average posting a fresh record high as investors
ended a volatile month on a high note. Traders also mulled over crucial
inflation data watched closely by the Federal Reserve.
The
30-stock Dow jumped 228.03 points, or 0.55%, to close at 41,563.08. The
blue-chip index touched a fresh all-time high in the final minutes of the
trading session and closed at another record.
The S&P 500 advanced 1.01%,
closing at 5,648.40, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained
1.13% to end at 17,713.62.
The
personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred
inflation gauge, rose 0.2%
on a monthly basis in July and 2.5% from a year ago. The result was in
line with estimates from economists polled by Dow Jones. Excluding food and
energy, it also rose 0.2% from the prior month.
The
Fed keeps a close eye on this metric, and it could still influence
policymakers’ rate decision in September.
“The
equity markets are very much behaving as if everything is sanguine,” said
Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, speaking on
Friday’s market action. “There’s more evidence for the soft landing, and
there’s less evidence that the Fed is going to cut aggressively.”
At
the end of August’s trading, the S&P 500 posted a 2.3%
gain for the month, while the Dow climbed
nearly 1.8%. The Nasdaq
Composite clinched a 0.7% advance for the period. The S&P 500
notched its fourth straight winning month. A surge in consumer staples, real
estate and health care helped lift the broad market index in August.
The
major averages suffered a steep sell-off at the start of the month, with the
S&P 500 losing as much as 7.3% before recovering. The Dow and Nasdaq were
down as much as 5.4% and 10.7%, respectively, at their lows this month.
Stock
market news for August 30, 2024 (cnbc.com)
European
stocks end August at record high after volatile start to the month
Published
Fri, Aug 30 2024 1:57 AM EDT
LONDON
— European markets closed higher on Friday, the last trading day of August, as
investors considered inflation data from around the world.
The
pan-European Stoxx 600 notched
an intraday record high of 526.66 points during the session, according to LSEG
data, before paring gains slightly. The index nonetheless closed above 525
points for the first time, having shaken off the sharp
sell-off at the start of August to end the month around 1.3% higher.
---- Global equity markets have been buoyed by
increased optimism of a soft landing for the U.S. economy and expectations for
the start of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in September, with
follow-up cuts from the European Central Bank and others.
A
series of key inflation data was published in both Europe and the U.S. this
week reinforcing those expectations.
Euro
zone inflation fell to a three-year low of 2.2% in August, according
to flash figures released by statistics agency Eurostat on Friday. The reading
was in line with expectations, and below July’s 2.6% print.
Elsewhere,
France’s preliminary, EU-harmonized consumer price index came in at 2.2% for
August on an annual basis, down from the 2.7% print of July, the country’s
statistics office said Friday. Preliminary data from Italy’s statistics agency showed the
harmonized CPI came in at 1.3% on an annual basis in August, less than in the
previous month.
That
comes after German and
Spanish CPI reports released Thursday showed that inflationary pressures in the
two countries are easing.
Stateside,
data showed that the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measure, the personal
consumption expenditures price index increased 0.2% in July on a
monthly basis, which was in line with expectations. The data could inform the
central bank’s monetary policy, with many investors hoping that the Fed will
start cutting interest rates when it next meets in September.
“We’re
fairly bullish from a medium-term perspective,” Dennis Jose, head of global
equity strategy at BNP Paribas Exane, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on
Thursday.
“We’ve
been in the soft landing camp for nearly two years... I think the market has
caught up with that view. But I think heading into Q3 the key theme we were
looking for was for markets to embrace the view that inflation is dead. That
would allow rates to come down, that would lock in central bank cutting cycles,
and that would effectively bring the Fed put back,” Jose said.
“Meanwhile,
growth has been soggy. So the key debate for Q4 is whether the sogginess does
lead to a recession, or whether we get something else.”
European
markets: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Federal
Reserve's favored inflation gauge shows price pressures easing as rate cuts
near
30
August 2024
An
inflation measure closely tracked by the Federal Reserve remained low
last month, extending a trend of cooling price increases that clears the way
for the Fed to start cutting its key interest rate next month for the first
time in 4 1/2 years.
Prices
rose just 0.2% from June to July, the Commerce Department said Friday, up a
tick from the previous month’s 0.1% increase. Compared with a year earlier,
inflation was unchanged at 2.5%.
The
slowdown in inflation could upend former President Donald Trump's efforts to
saddle Vice President Kamala Harris with blame
for rising prices. Still, despite the near-end of high inflation, many Americans remain
unhappy with today's sharply higher average prices for such necessities as gas,
food and housing compared with their pre-pandemic levels.
Excluding
volatile food and energy costs, so-called core inflation rose 0.2% from June to
July, the same as in the previous month. Measured from a year earlier, core
prices increased 2.6%, also unchanged from the previous year. Economists
closely watch core prices, which typically provide a better read of future
inflation trends.
Friday's
figures underscore that inflation is steadily fading in the United States after
three painful years of surging prices hammered many families' finances.
According to the measure reported Friday, inflation peaked at 7.1% in June
2022, the highest in four decades.
The
Fed tends to favor the inflation gauge that the government issued Friday — the
personal consumption expenditures price index — over the better-known consumer
price index. The PCE index tries to account for changes in how people shop when
inflation jumps. It can capture, for example, when consumers switch from
pricier national brands to cheaper store brands.
In
general, the PCE index tends to show a lower inflation rate than CPI. In part,
that’s because rents, which have been high, carry double the weight in the CPI
that they do in the index released Friday.
In
a high-profile speech last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell attributed the
inflation surge that erupted in 2021 to a “collision” of reduced supply
stemming from the pandemic’s disruptions with a jump in demand as consumers
ramped up spending, drawing on savings juiced by federal stimulus checks.
More
Federal Reserve's
favored inflation gauge shows price pressures easing as rate cuts near
(msn.com)
Finally,
America may be some $35+ Trillion in unrepayable, fast rising debt, but NATO’s never ending proxy war pays off in spades for some.
‘Worth
Billions’: Defense Contractors Set To Hit Gold Rush Amid Record Weapons Orders
27
August 2024 Story by Jake Smith.
Major
U.S. and global defense contractors are set for a cash windfall from a historic
number of weapons orders, The Financial Times reported on Monday.
The
top 15 defense contractors are projected to generate roughly $52 billion in
2026, nearly double what they made in 2021, according to the
Times. The industry is enjoying record numbers as governments around the world
place an increasing amount of weapons orders to deal with a rise in global
conflicts and tensions.
“It
is a cyclical business,” Byron Callan, managing partner at Capital Alpha
Partners, told the Times. “As much as people talk about 10-year demand cycles,
politics can change and security assessments can change and so too can defense
demand.”
Five
major U.S.-based defense contractors are expected to generate $26 billion by
the end of 2026, more than double what they made in 2021, according to the
Times. That doesn’t include Boeing, however, as the company has recently been
beset with problems and
primarily focuses on civil aerospace projects to begin with.
U.S.
defense contractors have also benefited from $13 billion in recent government
legislation that appropriated the funds for weapons production for Ukraine,
Israel and Taiwan, according to the Times. The U.S. has spent more than
$70 billion on military
aid for Ukraine since 2022.
Europe’s
BAE Systems, Rheinmetall and Saab — three of the country’s biggest contractors
— are set to jointly see more than a 40% jump in cash flow, according to the
Times.
The
surge in defense contracts can be explained by a rise in geopolitical tensions,
especially with regard to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, conflict in the
Middle East and rising tensions in Asia, according to the Times.
Defense
contractors don’t usually see profits realized for several years, as sales are
typically only completed once the project or weapon is delivered to the buyer,
but the historic boom in contracts is already raising questions as to how those
companies will use their windfall of funds, according to the Times.
“It’s
the billion-dollar question for the industry: companies typically don’t like
holding large amounts of cash on their balance sheets, so what do they do with
all that money if acquisitions are not that straightforward? Share buybacks and
dividends are one way,” Robert Stallard, an analyst at Vertical Research, told
the Times.
Some
defense contractors have already poured billions of dollars into stock share
buybacks, according to the Times. 2023 was the most robust year in five years
for share buybacks between aerospace and defense contractors, though the move
has been criticized by some lawmakers who wonder whether those companies are
dedicating enough funding to improving their production capabilities.
More
‘Worth Billions’:
Defense Contractors Set To Hit Gold Rush Amid Record Weapons Orders (msn.com)
To contract new debts is not the way to pay old ones.
George Washington.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
Eurozone inflation hits over 3-year low:
Are ECB rate cuts looming?
30 August 2024
Inflation in the
Eurozone has fallen to its lowest level in over three years, intensifying
speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) might soon consider lowering
interest rates.
According to
Eurostat's preliminary data, the harmonised index of consumer prices across the
currency bloc observed a year-on-year rise of 2.2% in August 2024. This marks
the lowest annual inflation rate since July 2021, before it spiked to a peak of
10.6% in October 2022.
This marks a
significant easing from the 2.6% rise recorded in July, aligning with
economists' expectations. On a monthly basis, the overall index edged up by
0.2%, following a stagnant reading in July.
The decline in
annual inflation was primarily driven by a sharp 3% drop in energy prices and
favourable base effects.
Excluding
volatile components such as energy and food, core inflation slightly declined
from 2.9% to 2.8% annually, reaching the lowest level since April 2024.
However, on a monthly basis, core inflation saw a 0.3% increase, mainly due to
a rise in services prices.
Service-related
expenses, which constitute nearly 45% of the Eurozone’s harmonised index,
escalated by 4.2% year-over-year in August, up from a previous 4%, and
experienced a 0.4% monthly rise.
“Policy should
proceed gradually and cautiously since the current level of headline inflation
understates the challenges monetary policy is still facing,” said Isabel
Schnabel, a member of the ECB's Executive Board, during a speech in Estonia on
Friday. She highlighted that domestic inflation remains high at 4.4%, largely
due to persistent price pressures in the services sector, where disinflation
has effectively stalled since last November.
In a separate
release, Eurostat reported that the unemployment rate for the Eurozone eased
from 6.5% to 6.4% in August, below market forecasts of 6.5%.
More
Eurozone inflation hits over 3-year low: Are ECB rate cuts looming?
(msn.com)
Next,
does this sound like a soft landing in the US economy? Will even a 50 basis point
cut in US interest rates get low-income shoppers spending like drunken sailors
again?
Dollar General struggles as customers cut
back on discretionary spending
August 29, 2024
Low-income
shoppers are pulling back on spending, resulting in disappointing sales at
Dollar General, which on Thursday lowered its sales and profit forecast for the
year.
"We believe
the softer sales trends are partially attributable to a core customer who feels
financially constrained," Todd Vasos, Dollar General's chief executive
officer stated. The company is continuing with a turnaround plan it embarked
upon after he returned to Dollar
General from retirement last year, the CEO added.
While multiple
economic trends are positive, "this good news has not yet reached the
wallets of Dollar General customers who remain very constrained and
cautious," said retail analyst Neil Saunders. "They are buying less
at Dollar General and are cutting back on more discretionary categories like
seasonal and home products. This depletes sales but it also dilutes
profitability as many of the harder-hit categories have higher margins,"
said Saunders, managing director of GlobalData.
The discount
retailer now anticipates same-store sales to rise 1% to 1.6% this fiscal year,
revised lower from its previous forecast of a 2% to 2.7% increase.
Dollar General
may also be losing ground to other stores, including Walmart and Target.
Walmart earlier
this month reported strong
quarterly sales in drawing Americans grappling with increasing shelter and food
costs. Likewise, deals in the grocery aisle helped Target reverse a
year-long sales slide earlier this month.
The earnings
release comes after Dollar General agreed to pay $12 million and
improve safety at its 20,000 stores nationwide to settle claims it put workers
in danger with practices including blocking emergency exits.
In disclosing
significant losses earlier in June, Dollar General said it plans to close almost 1,000 stores over the next several years.
Dollar General struggles as customers cut back on discretionary spending
(msn.com)
Big Lots Is Considering Bankruptcy Filing
After Sales Slump
- Discount
chain may seek court protection within weeks
- Off-price
retailer has suffered years of declining sales
By Eliza Ronalds-Hannon and Reshmi Basu
August 28, 2024
at 9:45 PM GMT+1 Updated on August 28, 2024 at 10:37 PM GMT+1
Off-price home
goods retailer Big Lots Inc. is
contemplating a potential bankruptcy filing after years of sales declines,
according to people with knowledge of the plans.
The company is
also seeking investors in a bid to avoid Chapter 11, according to one person
familiar. The people asked not to be named sharing information about
confidential matters. The plans aren’t final and Big Lots’ path may change.
More. Subscription
required.
Big Lots Is Considering Bankruptcy, BIG Stock Falls - Bloomberg
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
Here’s what to know about the COVID-19 summer surge
Miranda Nazzaro
Fri, August 30, 2024 at 3:11 AM
GMT+1
The United States is
facing a surge in COVID-19 infections once again as the summer
season nears an end.
The late-summer spike has
many Americans questioning how long the numbers will last, the signs and
symptoms to look out for and when they can get the updated vaccines.
How bad is the COVID-19 summer surge?
As of Aug. 16, the Center
for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) determined that COVID-19 infections
were growing or likely to grow in 27 states.
It also said last week
that its wastewater monitoring for COVID-19 shows levels are “very
high” and have been on a general increase since the beginning of June.
Doctors have suggested the recent spike in COVID-19 infections
could be one of the largest summer waves they have observed since the outbreak
first started.
The CDC’s wastewater
tracker increased to 8.86 on Aug. 17, marking a large jump from early May when
the rate was 1.35. The peak rate of 9.56 occurred in July 2022.
Emergency room visits and
diagnosis, hospitalizations and deaths have also increased since May, CDC data shows. Hospitalization rates for the week
ending on Aug. 10 peaked at 4.6, up from a rate of 1.1 in early May. The rate
dropped back down last week to 3.1, per the CDC.
Between Aug. 11 and 17,
2.5 percent of emergency room patients were diagnosed with COVID-19, according
to agency data said.
The data collected by the
federal agency is limited as hospitals are no longer required to report
COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity or hospital occupancy data to
the federal government.
More
Here’s what to know about the COVID-19 summer
surge (yahoo.com)
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Scalable graphene technology could significantly enhance battery
safety and performance
August 29, 2024
Researchers at Swansea University, in
collaboration with Wuhan University of Technology, Shenzhen University, have
developed a pioneering technique for producing large-scale graphene current
collectors.
This breakthrough promises to
significantly enhance the safety and performance of lithium-ion batteries
(LIBs), addressing a critical challenge in energy storage technology.
Published in Nature Chemical Engineering,
the study details
the first successful protocol for fabricating defect-free graphene foils on a commercial scale. These foils offer
extraordinary thermal conductivity—up to 1,400.8 W m–1 K–1—nearly
ten times higher than traditional copper and aluminum current collectors used
in LIBs.
"This is a significant step forward
for battery technology," said Dr.
Rui Tan, co-lead author from Swansea University. "Our method allows for
the production of graphene current collectors at a scale and quality that can
be readily integrated into commercial battery manufacturing. This not only
improves battery safety by efficiently managing heat but also enhances energy density and longevity."
One of the most pressing concerns in the
development of high-energy LIBs, especially those used in electric
vehicles, is thermal runaway—a dangerous
scenario where excessive heat leads to battery failure, often resulting in
fires or explosions. These graphene current collectors are designed to mitigate
this risk by efficiently dissipating heat and preventing the exothermic
reactions that lead to thermal runaway.
"Our dense, aligned graphene
structure provides a robust barrier against the formation of flammable gases
and prevents oxygen from permeating the battery cells, which is crucial for
avoiding catastrophic failures," explained Dr. Jinlong Yang, co-lead
author from Shenzhen University.
The newly developed process is not just
a laboratory success but a scalable solution, capable of producing graphene
foils in lengths ranging from meters to kilometers. In a significant
demonstration of its potential, the researchers produced a 200-meter-long
graphene foil with a thickness of 17 micrometers. This foil retained high electrical conductivity even
after being bent over 100,000 times, making it ideal for use in flexible
electronics and other advanced applications.
More
Next, coming soon to a tall building near you. Later, a AI version
for solar power farms.
Window-cleaning robots hang out in New York for world-first
deployment
By Paul Ridden August 29, 2024
A 45-story office tower in New York has become the first in the
world to deploy the Ozmo automated window cleaning system, where a platform
dangled from the roof is home to robots that spritz the glass 3x faster than
human cleaning crews.
The Ozmo setup essentially mounts a pair of Kuka robotic arms to a
cleaning platform that hangs from the roof of a tower, and equips each with a
brush head and water.
There are force sensors in play that help the cleaning bot to
judge how fragile a window pane is, and apply the appropriate pressure for an
efficient wash. The company reports that the window cleaning bot employs LiDAR
sensors for localization and positioning, while artificial intelligence
algorithms ensure stability even in gusty conditions.
At the moment, team Ozmo is controlled via a computer operator on
the roof of the building, so there's still a role for human workers, but full
autonomy is on the cards for the future. This will not only help fill a
"growing labor shortage of window cleaners" but will also "keep
humans out of harm's way."
Skyline Robotics has been developing and testing the system for a
few years now, but the deployment at the 1133 Avenue of the Americas building
in New York – which is owned and managed by the Durst Organization – represents
the start of global rollout.
More
Window-cleaning robots hang out in New York for world-first deployment (newatlas.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. The almost totally unknown Maria Teresa Agnesi.,
sister of the 18th century mathematician, who wrote the first ever
summary of integral and differential calculus. Approx.
4 minutes.
Maria
Teresa Agnesi Pinottini: Harpsichord Concerto 1st Movement
Maria Teresa
Agnesi Pinottini: Harpsichord Concerto 1st Movement - YouTube
Maria
Teresa Agnesi Pinottini
Maria Teresa Agnesi Pinottini - Wikipedia
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 14 minutes.
Fabi
Calculates the Entire Endgame!
Fabi Calculates the Entire Endgame! (youtube.com)
This weekend’s final diversion. The Sydney Opera House. Approx. 12 minutes. Next weekend, inside Buckingham Palace.
What's
inside the Sydney Opera House?
What's inside the
Sydney Opera House? - YouTube
The last official act of any government is to loot the treasury.
George Washington.
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