Monday, 2 September 2024

Autumn Arrives. October’s “Crash Month” Next? Buffett Selling.

Baltic Dry Index. 1814  -13     Brent Crude  76.33

Spot Gold 2497            US 2 Year Yield 3.91 +0.04

"US households have blown through their pandemic savings. In fact, compared to the pre-pandemic trend, households have now drawn down some $2.4 trillion in excess savings, compared to just $2.2 trillion in excess savings accumulated during the covid years."

Rabobank

In the Asian stock casinos, trouble. Officially, China’s economy is not in recession, but its economy is doing a pretty good job of faking it.

With US casinos closed today for the Labor Day holiday, Europe’s stock casinos must digest the China news and the local election crash in Germany of Chancellor Scholz governing coalition.

Asia markets fall after China manufacturing slumps to 6-month low; real estate drags Hang Seng index

Published Sun, Sep 1 2024 8:13 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets fell on Monday as investors assessed China’s business activity numbers released over the weekend, while awaiting a slew of data due later this week.

China released its official purchasing managers’ index data for August. The manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 49.1, a faster contraction compared to the 49.4 seen in July.

The figure also missed the median forecast of 49.5 from economists polled by Reuters, with the index marking its fourth straight month in contraction territory.

On the other hand, China’s non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.3, up from July’s 50.2.

Among the economic data coming out from major markets in the region are inflation numbers from South Korea, Australia’s second-quarter GDP data, as well as data on pay and household spending from Japan later this week.

Hong Kong Hang Seng index tumbled 1.68%, while the CSI300 shed 1.2%, dragged down by real estate stocks.

On the HSI, property developer New World Development was the biggest loser, with shares plunging as much as 14.14% after the company forecast a loss of about 19 to 20 billion Hong Kong dollars ($2.6 billion) for its financial year 2024.

“Even if mortgage refinancing policy materializes, it’s not a policy to revive the housing market, because it has nothing to do with the new home demands, mainly benefiting the existing homeowners,” Haibin Zhu, chief China economist told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.

Most importantly, Zhu noted, it is a policy to support consumption. He was responding to a question about a recent Bloomberg report, which said that China is mulling allowing homeowners to refinance up to $5.4 trillion of mortgages

Separately, the Caixin manufacturing PMI for August showed an improvement in the country’s manufacturing activity, which expanded to 50.4 compared to July’s 49.8 and beat the 50.0 expected by a Reuters poll of economists.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.35%, while the broad based Topix was 0.11% higher. The Nikkei briefly crossed the 39,000 mark earlier in the session, making it the first time that the index had crossed 39,000 since July 31.

In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi was marginally up, while the small cap Kosdaq was 0.30% lower.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.27%.

In the U.S. on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a fresh record high, with the blue-chip index jumping 0.55% to close at 41,563.08. The S&P 500 advanced 1.01%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.13%.

On Friday, traders also assessed key inflation data watched closely by the Federal Reserve.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in July and 2.5% from a year ago, in line with estimates from economists polled by Dow Jones.

Excluding food and energy, it also rose 0.2% from the prior month.

Asia stock markets: China PMI, South Korea CPI, HK real estate (cnbc.com)

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sells more Bank of America, has now cut stake by nearly 15%

Published Sat, Aug 31 2024 8:35 AM EDT

Warren Buffett has added around $6 billion to Berkshire Hathaway’s sizable cash pile this summer with a string of Bank of America stock sales since mid-July.

According to a new filing Friday, sales of 21.1 million shares on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday generated $848.2 million, which is an average price of $40.24.

Berkshire has sold Bank of America shares for six straight sessions. Since it began to reduce its holding on July 17, it has sold shares during 21 of the past 33 sessions.

In total, Berkshire has cut its BofA holding by 14.5% with the sale of 150.1 million shares for $6.2 billion. That’s an average of $41.33 per share.

BofA is Berkshire’s third largest equity holding, accounting for around 11% of its portfolio.

Berkshire remains Bank of America’s largest shareholder with a 11.4% stake of 882.7 million shares valued at nearly $36 billion.

As the sales continue, however, it is approaching the Vanguard Group’s 639 million shares.

While there are several theories on why Berkshire is selling a stock that Buffett said as recently as last year he didn’t want to sell, despite his concerns about the banking sector overall, there’s been no explanation from Omaha so far.

Buffett turned 94 on Friday. As of June 30, Berkshire’s cash pile stood at a record $277 billion.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sells more Bank of America, has now cut stake by nearly 15% (cnbc.com)

In other news, an earthquake hits Germany and the EUSSR.

German far-right party wins its first state election and is very close in a second

Published Sun, Sep 1 2024 5:55 PM EDT

far-right party won a state election for the first time in post-World War II Germany in the country’s east on Sunday, and looked set to finish a very close second to mainstream conservatives in a second vote.

new party founded by a prominent leftist also made a strong impact, while the parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s unpopular national government obtained extremely weak results.

The far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, won 32.8% of the vote in Thuringia — well ahead of the center-right Christian Democratic Union, the main national opposition party, with 23.6%.

In neighboring Saxony, projections for ARD and ZDF public television with the count well advanced put support for the CDU, which has led the state since German reunification in 1990, at 31.9% and AfD on 30.6-30.7%. AfD made substantial gains in Thuringia and smaller ones in Saxony compared with the last state elections in 2019.

“An openly right-wing extremist party has become the strongest force in a state parliament for the first time since 1949, and that causes many people very deep concern and fear,” said Omid Nouripour, a leader of the Greens, one of the national governing parties.

Other parties say they won’t put AfD in power by joining it in a coalition. Even so, its strength is likely to make it extremely difficult to form new state governments, forcing other parties into exotic new coalitions. The new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW, took 15.8% of the vote in Thuringia and nearly 12% in Saxony, adding another level of complication.

“This is a historic success for us,” Alice Weidel, a national co-leader of AfD, told ARD. She described the result as a “requiem” for Scholz’s coalition.

The CDU’s national general secretary, Carsten Linnemann, said that “voters in both states knew that we wouldn’t form a coalition with AfD, and it will stay that way — we are very, very clear on this.”

Weidel denounced that as “pure ignorance” and said that “voters want AfD to participate in a government.”

Deep discontent with a national government notorious for infighting, anti-immigration sentiment and skepticism toward German military aid for Ukraine are among the factors that have contributed to support for populist parties in the region, which is less prosperous than western Germany.

----Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats at least stayed in the two state legislatures with single-digit support, but the environmentalist Greens lost their seats in Thuringia. The two parties were the junior coalition partners in both outgoing state governments. The third party in the national government, the pro-business Free Democrats, also lost its seats in Thuringia. It already had no representation in Saxony.

A third state election follows Sept. 22 in another eastern state, Brandenburg, currently led by Scholz’s party. Germany’s next national election is due in a little over a year.

More

German far-right party wins its first state election and is very close in a second (cnbc.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

'Something has been changing': Why a top economist is still worried about a recession even as the US economy keeps growing

Matthew Fox  Sun, 1 Sept 2024, 12:42 am BST

The probability of a recession hitting the US economy is rising after a flurry of signals have flashed in recent weeks and months.

That's according to economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research, who compiled a list of recessionary indicators in a note on Friday.

"What is the best recession indicator? That's a hard question to answer — why not dodge it completely and just look at all of them?" Rosenberg asked.

Rosenberg's compilation of 20 recessionary indicators comes as the US economy continues its resilient run, defying recession callers.

Second-quarter GDP growth was revised higher-than-expected to 3.0% from the 2.8% expected on Thursday, retail spending data is still solid, and consumers could soon get another breath of life when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, which is expected to happen in September.

But according to Rosenberg, some worrying signals have historically only flashed on the precipice of an economic downturn.

"The 'indicator of indicators' indicates recession," Rosenberg said.

Of the 20 recession indicators compiled by Rosenberg, nine have been triggered.

Some of the recession signals that have flashed include the Sahm Rule, the Leading Economic Indicator Index, and the inverted yield curve, among others.

Many of the recessionary indicators that have not yet flashed are found in the manufacturing and transportation sectors, which remain solid.

"Currently, 45% of the recession indicators we tracked have been triggered. Going back to 1999, that's never happened without a recession occurring," Rosenberg said.

The list of signals flahsing has steadily risen since 2022, when only 10% were triggered. That rose to about 25% in 2023 and the first half of 2024.

But since then, the recession warnings have been growing.

"Sometimes more is more, and this is a case in point. Looking at recession thresholds across different sectors of the economy makes it clear that something has been changing since mid-2024 — the long-anticipated slowdown may finally be arriving," Rosenberg said.

To prepare for a potential economic downturn, Rosenberg recommended clients diversify their portfolios in "recession-proof" assets like Treasurys and gold and tilt them to defensive equities like utilities and consumer staples.

Below is a list of the 20 recession indicators compiled by Rosenberg Research.

More

'Something has been changing': Why a top economist is still worried about a recession even as the US economy keeps growing (yahoo.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

FDA approves Novavax's updated COVID-19 vaccine

Allen Cone  Sun, September 1, 2024 at 1:05 AM GMT+1

Aug. 31 (UPI) -- A third COVID-19 vaccine will be available shortly as Novavax joins Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna in targeting variants that are now circulating.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Friday authorized the updated version of the protein-based Novavax Covid-19 vaccine for use in people 12 and older.

One week ago, the FDA approved the updated versions for Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, an mRAN. They are now available in some pharmacies.

All these vaccines include a monovalent, or single, component that corresponds to the Omicron variant JN.1 strain of SARS-CoV-2.

"The COVID-19 vaccines have had a tremendous positive impact on public health and vaccination continues to be the most effective method for COVID-19 prevention," Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA's Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said in a news release. "COVID-19 continues to be a very real risk for many people, and we encourage individuals to consider getting an updated COVID-19 vaccine when eligible.

"Today's authorization provides an additional COVID-19 vaccine option that meets the FDA's standards for safety, effectiveness and manufacturing quality needed to support emergency use authorization."

Individuals 12 years of age and older who have never been vaccinated with any COVID-19 vaccine are eligible to receive two doses three weeks apart of Novavax.

One dose is allowed for those who have been vaccinated only with one dose of any of the manufacturers' doses. For Novavax, it is three weeks after the last dose and for the two others it is at least two months.

More

FDA approves Novavax's updated COVID-19 vaccine (yahoo.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Latest Breakthroughs in Graphene Research

August 30, 2024

Often hailed as the "wonder material of the 21st century," graphene continues to captivate researchers and industry leaders with its extraordinary properties and vast application potential. This article overviews recent breakthroughs in graphene research, showcasing how this remarkable material pushes the boundaries of science and technology.

Since its discovery in 2004, this single layer of carbon atoms arranged in a honeycomb structure has demonstrated a remarkable combination of characteristics that set it apart from any other known material.

Graphene is the thinnest material known—just one atom thick—yet it is 200 times stronger than steel. Despite this incredible strength, it is flexible and lightweight and conducts electricity and heat better than any other material at room temperature.

These properties, combined with its transparency and impermeability to most gases and liquids, make graphene an ideal candidate for revolutionizing numerous industries.1

Newly Discovered Graphene Properties

Despite being discovered nearly two decades ago, scientists continue to uncover innovative properties of graphene.

Ferroelectric Properties of Bilayer Graphene

In a study published in Nature, MIT researchers discovered unconventional ferroelectricity in bilayer graphene. They found that graphene can exhibit spontaneous charge separation between layers without an external electric field, challenging existing assumptions about ferroelectric systems.

This new property, coupled with graphene's excellent electrical conductivity, has significant potential for advancing faster information processing, especially in neuromorphic computing, and may lead to the development of new ferroelectric materials.2

The Most Magneto-Resistant Material

Graphene has been identified as the most magnetoresistant material—it can change its electrical resistance in response to a magnetic field more rapidly and pronouncedly than other materials like graphite or bismuth, and it displays this property at room temperature.

Researchers at the University of Manchester found that graphene's resistance changes dramatically even under small magnetic fields due to its highly mobile charge carriers. This property, combined with graphene's strength and conductivity, could transform data storage technology and open new avenues in fundamental physics.3

More

Latest Breakthroughs in Graphene Research (azonano.com)

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

We can't solve today's problems with the mentality that created them.

Albert Einstein.


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