Baltic
Dry Index. 1814 -13
Brent Crude 76.33
Spot Gold 2497 US 2 Year Yield 3.91 +0.04
"US households have blown
through their pandemic savings. In fact, compared to the pre-pandemic trend,
households have now drawn down some $2.4 trillion in excess savings, compared
to just $2.2 trillion in excess savings accumulated during the covid
years."
Rabobank
In the Asian stock casinos, trouble. Officially, China’s economy is not in recession, but its economy is doing a pretty good job of faking it.
With US casinos closed today for the Labor Day holiday, Europe’s stock casinos must digest the China news and the local election crash in Germany of Chancellor Scholz governing coalition.
Asia markets fall after China manufacturing slumps
to 6-month low; real estate drags Hang Seng index
Published Sun, Sep 1 2024 8:13 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets fell on Monday as
investors assessed China’s business activity numbers released over the weekend,
while awaiting a slew of data due later this week.
China released its official purchasing
managers’ index data for August. The manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 49.1, a faster contraction compared to the
49.4 seen in July.
The figure also missed the median forecast
of 49.5 from economists polled by Reuters, with the index marking its fourth
straight month in contraction territory.
On the other hand, China’s
non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.3, up from July’s 50.2.
Among the economic data coming out from
major markets in the region are inflation numbers from South Korea, Australia’s
second-quarter GDP data, as well as data on pay and household spending from
Japan later this week.
Hong Kong Hang Seng index tumbled
1.68%, while the CSI300 shed 1.2%, dragged down by real estate stocks.
On the HSI, property developer New World Development was
the biggest loser, with shares plunging as much as 14.14% after the
company forecast a loss of about 19 to 20 billion Hong Kong dollars ($2.6
billion) for its financial year 2024.
“Even if mortgage refinancing policy
materializes, it’s not a policy to revive the housing market, because it has
nothing to do with the new home demands, mainly benefiting the existing
homeowners,” Haibin Zhu, chief China economist told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on
Monday.
Most importantly, Zhu noted, it is a
policy to support consumption. He was responding to a question about a
recent Bloomberg report, which said that China is mulling allowing
homeowners to refinance up to $5.4 trillion of mortgages
Separately, the Caixin manufacturing PMI for August showed an
improvement in the country’s manufacturing activity, which expanded to 50.4
compared to July’s 49.8 and beat the 50.0 expected by a Reuters poll of
economists.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.35%,
while the broad based Topix was 0.11% higher. The Nikkei briefly crossed the
39,000 mark earlier in the session, making it the first time that the index had
crossed 39,000 since July 31.
In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi was marginally up,
while the small cap Kosdaq was 0.30% lower.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped
0.27%.
In the U.S. on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted
a fresh record high, with the blue-chip index jumping 0.55% to close at
41,563.08. The S&P 500 advanced
1.01%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq
Composite gained 1.13%.
On Friday, traders also assessed key
inflation data watched closely by the Federal Reserve.
The personal consumption expenditures
price index, rose 0.2%
on a monthly basis in July and 2.5% from a year ago, in line with
estimates from economists polled by Dow Jones.
Excluding food and energy, it also rose
0.2% from the prior month.
Asia stock markets: China PMI, South Korea CPI, HK real estate (cnbc.com)
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sells more
Bank of America, has now cut stake by nearly 15%
Published Sat, Aug 31 2024 8:35 AM EDT
Warren Buffett has added around $6 billion
to Berkshire Hathaway’s sizable cash pile this summer with a string of Bank of America stock sales
since mid-July.
According to a new filing Friday, sales of 21.1 million shares on
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday generated $848.2 million, which is an average
price of $40.24.
Berkshire has sold Bank of
America shares for six straight sessions. Since it began to reduce its holding
on July 17, it has sold shares during 21 of the past 33 sessions.
In total, Berkshire has cut its BofA
holding by 14.5% with the sale of 150.1 million shares for $6.2 billion. That’s
an average of $41.33 per share.
BofA is Berkshire’s third largest equity holding, accounting for
around 11% of its portfolio.
Berkshire remains Bank of America’s largest shareholder with a 11.4%
stake of 882.7 million shares valued at nearly $36 billion.
As the sales continue, however, it is
approaching the Vanguard Group’s 639 million shares.
While there are several theories on why Berkshire is selling a stock
that Buffett said as recently as last year he didn’t want to sell, despite his
concerns about the banking sector overall, there’s been no explanation from
Omaha so far.
Buffett turned 94 on Friday. As of June
30, Berkshire’s cash pile stood at a record $277 billion.
In other news, an earthquake hits Germany and the EUSSR.
German far-right party wins its first state
election and is very close in a second
Published Sun, Sep 1 2024 5:55 PM EDT
A far-right party won a state election for the first
time in post-World War II Germany in the country’s east on Sunday, and looked
set to finish a very close second to mainstream conservatives in a second vote.
A new party founded by a prominent leftist also made a
strong impact, while the parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s unpopular national government obtained extremely weak
results.
The far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, won 32.8% of the vote in
Thuringia — well ahead of the center-right Christian Democratic Union, the main
national opposition party, with 23.6%.
In neighboring Saxony, projections for ARD
and ZDF public television with the count well advanced put support for the CDU,
which has led the state since German reunification in 1990, at 31.9% and AfD on
30.6-30.7%. AfD made substantial gains in Thuringia and smaller ones in Saxony
compared with the last state elections in 2019.
“An openly right-wing extremist party has
become the strongest force in a state parliament for the first time since 1949,
and that causes many people very deep concern and fear,” said Omid Nouripour, a
leader of the Greens, one of the national governing parties.
Other parties say they won’t put AfD in
power by joining it in a coalition. Even so, its strength is likely to make it
extremely difficult to form new state governments, forcing other parties into
exotic new coalitions. The new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW, took 15.8% of the vote
in Thuringia and nearly 12% in Saxony, adding another level of complication.
“This is a historic success for us,” Alice
Weidel, a national co-leader of AfD, told ARD. She described the result as a
“requiem” for Scholz’s coalition.
The CDU’s national general secretary,
Carsten Linnemann, said that “voters in both states knew that we wouldn’t form
a coalition with AfD, and it will stay that way — we are very, very clear on
this.”
Weidel denounced that as “pure ignorance”
and said that “voters want AfD to participate in a government.”
Deep discontent with a national government
notorious for infighting, anti-immigration sentiment and skepticism toward
German military aid for Ukraine are among the factors that have contributed to
support for populist parties in the region, which is less prosperous than
western Germany.
----Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats
at least stayed in the two state legislatures with single-digit support, but
the environmentalist Greens lost their seats in Thuringia. The two parties were
the junior coalition partners in both outgoing state governments. The third
party in the national government, the pro-business Free Democrats, also lost
its seats in Thuringia. It already had no representation in Saxony.
A third state election follows Sept. 22 in
another eastern state, Brandenburg, currently led by Scholz’s party.
Germany’s next national election is due in a little over a year.
More
German far-right party wins its first state election and is very close in a second (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
'Something
has been changing': Why a top economist is still worried about a recession even
as the US economy keeps growing
Matthew Fox Sun, 1 Sept 2024, 12:42 am BST
The
probability of a recession hitting the US economy is rising after a flurry of
signals have flashed in recent weeks and months.
That's
according to economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research, who compiled a
list of recessionary indicators in a note on Friday.
"What
is the best recession indicator? That's a hard question to answer — why not
dodge it completely and just look at all of them?" Rosenberg asked.
Rosenberg's
compilation of 20 recessionary indicators comes as the US economy continues its
resilient run, defying recession callers.
Second-quarter GDP
growth was
revised higher-than-expected to 3.0% from the 2.8% expected on Thursday, retail
spending data is still solid, and consumers could soon get another breath of
life when
the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, which is expected to happen in
September.
But
according to Rosenberg, some worrying signals have historically only flashed on
the precipice of an economic downturn.
"The
'indicator of indicators' indicates recession," Rosenberg said.
Of
the 20 recession indicators compiled by Rosenberg, nine have been triggered.
Some
of the recession signals that have flashed include the
Sahm Rule, the
Leading Economic Indicator Index, and the
inverted yield curve, among
others.
Many
of the recessionary indicators that have not yet flashed are found in the
manufacturing and transportation sectors, which remain solid.
"Currently,
45% of the recession indicators we tracked have been triggered. Going back to
1999, that's never happened without a recession occurring," Rosenberg
said.
The
list of signals flahsing has steadily risen since 2022, when only 10% were
triggered. That rose to about 25% in 2023 and the first half of 2024.
But
since then, the recession warnings have been growing.
"Sometimes
more is more, and this is a case in point. Looking at recession thresholds
across different sectors of the economy makes it clear that something has been
changing since mid-2024 — the long-anticipated slowdown may finally be
arriving," Rosenberg said.
To
prepare for a potential economic downturn, Rosenberg recommended clients
diversify their portfolios in "recession-proof" assets like Treasurys
and gold and tilt them to defensive
equities like utilities and consumer staples.
Below
is a list of the 20 recession indicators compiled by Rosenberg Research.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
FDA approves Novavax's updated COVID-19 vaccine
Allen Cone Sun, September 1, 2024
at 1:05 AM GMT+1
Aug. 31 (UPI) -- A
third COVID-19 vaccine will be available shortly as Novavax joins
Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna in targeting variants that are now circulating.
The U.S. Food and Drug
Administration on Friday authorized the updated version of the protein-based
Novavax Covid-19 vaccine for use in people 12 and older.
One week ago, the FDA approved the updated versions for Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna,
an mRAN. They are now available in some pharmacies.
All these vaccines
include a monovalent, or single, component that corresponds to the Omicron
variant JN.1 strain of SARS-CoV-2.
"The COVID-19
vaccines have had a tremendous positive impact on public health and vaccination
continues to be the most effective method for COVID-19 prevention," Dr.
Peter Marks, director of the FDA's Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said in a news release. "COVID-19 continues to be a very real risk
for many people, and we encourage individuals to consider getting an updated
COVID-19 vaccine when eligible.
"Today's
authorization provides an additional COVID-19 vaccine option that meets the
FDA's standards for safety, effectiveness and manufacturing quality needed to
support emergency use authorization."
Individuals 12 years of
age and older who have never been vaccinated with any COVID-19 vaccine are
eligible to receive two doses three weeks apart of Novavax.
One dose is allowed for
those who have been vaccinated only with one dose of any of the manufacturers'
doses. For Novavax, it is three weeks after the last dose and for the two
others it is at least two months.
More
FDA approves Novavax's updated COVID-19 vaccine (yahoo.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Latest
Breakthroughs in Graphene Research
August
30, 2024
Often
hailed as the "wonder material of the 21st century," graphene
continues to captivate researchers and industry leaders with its extraordinary
properties and vast application potential. This article overviews recent
breakthroughs in graphene research, showcasing how this remarkable material
pushes the boundaries of science and technology.
Since
its discovery in 2004, this single layer of carbon atoms arranged in a
honeycomb structure has demonstrated a remarkable combination of
characteristics that set it apart from any other known material.
Graphene
is the thinnest material known—just one atom thick—yet it is 200 times stronger
than steel. Despite this incredible strength, it is flexible and lightweight
and conducts electricity and heat better than any other material at room
temperature.
These
properties, combined with its transparency and impermeability to most gases and
liquids, make graphene an ideal candidate for revolutionizing numerous
industries.1
Newly
Discovered Graphene Properties
Despite
being discovered nearly two decades ago, scientists continue to uncover
innovative properties of graphene.
Ferroelectric
Properties of Bilayer Graphene
In a
study published in Nature, MIT
researchers discovered unconventional ferroelectricity in bilayer graphene.
They found that graphene can exhibit spontaneous charge separation between
layers without an external electric field, challenging existing assumptions
about ferroelectric systems.
This
new property, coupled with graphene's excellent electrical conductivity, has
significant potential for advancing faster information processing, especially
in neuromorphic computing, and may lead to the development of new ferroelectric
materials.2
The
Most Magneto-Resistant Material
Graphene
has been identified as the most magnetoresistant material—it can change its
electrical resistance in response to a magnetic field more rapidly and
pronouncedly than other materials like graphite or bismuth, and it displays
this property at room temperature.
Researchers
at the University of Manchester found that graphene's resistance changes
dramatically even under small magnetic fields due to its highly mobile charge
carriers. This property, combined with graphene's strength and conductivity,
could transform data storage technology and open new avenues in fundamental
physics.3
More
Latest
Breakthroughs in Graphene Research (azonano.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
We
can't solve today's problems with the mentality that created them.
Albert
Einstein.
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