Baltic
Dry Index. 1977 +01 Brent
Crude 74.49
Spot
Gold 2622 U S 2 Year Yield 3.55 -0.04
Inflation is the one form of taxation that can be imposed
without legislation.
Milton Friedman.
If
FedEx and Mercedes and VW are anything to go by, get out of debt, stocks and
risk-on now.
Forget
recession. A Depression/Slump is now on the cards, if we can manage to avoid a
wider Middle East war, or the catastrophe of a US/UK War Party, caused nuclear WW3.
Assuming
no war, a food chain supply crisis is just getting underway in the first
innings of the next few years.
JP
Morgan's CEO Jamie Dimon, is sceptical that a soft landing lies ahead. Just don’t
tell anyone on Wall Street getting drunk of the Fed’s punch bowl gift ahead of
the USA’s November elections.
An
economic disaster lies ahead in 2025.
Dow
rises to close at fresh record, posts winning week after big Fed rate cut: Live
updates
Updated
Fri, Sep 20 2024 4:45 PM EDT
The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked
out a gain and closed at a record on Friday, capping a big rally for the week
that came after the first major easing of interest rate policy by the Federal
Reserve in four years.
The
30-stock Dow inched up 38.17 points, or 0.09%, for a new closing high of
42,063.36. The S&P 500 pulled
back 0.19%, ending at 5,702.55, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped
0.36% to end at 17,948.32. On Thursday, the Dow hit a record above 42,000, and
the S&P 500 climbed above 5,700 for the first time.
The
three major averages notched weekly gains. The S&P 500 rose 1.36%, posting
its fifth positive week over the past six weeks. The index is up more than 19%
in 2024. The Dow ended the week higher by 1.62%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq
advanced 1.49%.
On
Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by a supersized
half point, its first cut since 2020. In a delayed reaction, the market climbed
higher Thursday as investors crowded into tech names such as Nvidia and shares set to
benefit from lower rates such as Home
Depot.
Fed
Governor Christopher Waller, in the first comments by a member of the Fed since
Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, said
to CNBC on Friday that inflation is coming down faster than he
expected, causing him to be in favor of the half-point cut.
“Investors
viewed the aggressive rate cut as positive catalyst,” said Nationwide chief of
investment research Mark Hackett.
“The
Fed was able to effectively convince investors that the sizable cut is a
proactive measure to sustain economic momentum, rather than a reactive move to
stabilize it. The strong market reaction indicates investors have confidence in
the Fed and have a ‘glass half full’ mentality,” Hackett added.
FedEx dented sentiment a bit
on Friday after the shipping behemoth cut its earnings outlook. Shares dropped
more than 15% and competitor UPS shed
2.7% in sympathy.
Stock
market news for September 20, 2024 (cnbc.com)
Wall
St Week Ahead: Investor focus turns to data, election, earnings after Fed cut
By Lewis Krauskopf September 20, 2024 8:20 PM GMT+1
NEW
YORK, Sept 20 (Reuters) - A roaring rally in U.S. stocks will face a gauntlet
of economic data, looming political uncertainty and a corporate earnings test
in coming weeks as investors navigate one of the most volatile periods of the
year for equity markets.
The
benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab this week hit its first closing
all-time high in two months after the Federal Reserve unveiled a hefty 50-basis
point rate
cut, kicking off the first U.S. monetary easing cycle since 2020.
The
index is up 0.8% so far in September, historically the weakest month for
stocks, and has gained 19% year-to-date. But the rocky period could carry over
until the Nov 5 election, strategists said, leaving the S&P 500 vulnerable
to market swings.
"We're
entering that period where seasonality has been a bit less favorable,” said
Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones. "Despite
the excitement about the start of the new rate-cutting cycle, it could still be
a bumpy road ahead."
The
second half of September is historically the weakest two-week period of the
year for the S&P 500, according to a Ned Davis Research analysis of data
since 1950.
The
index has also logged an average 0.45% decline in October during presidential
years, data from CFRA going back to 1945 showed.
Volatility
also tends to pick up in October in election years, with the Cboe Market
Volatility index (.VIX), opens new tab rising to an average level of 25
at the start of the month, as opposed to its long-term average of 19.2,
according to an Edward Jones analysis of the past eight presidential election
years. The VIX was recently at 16.4.
The
market could be particularly sensitive to this year's close election between
Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris. Recent
polls show a virtually tied race.
"Unless
the data deteriorates considerably, we think U.S . elections will start to be
more at the forefront," UBS equity derivative strategists said in a note.
Investors
are also looking for data to support expectations that the economy is
navigating a "soft landing," during which inflation moderates without
badly hurting growth. Stocks fare much better after the start of rate cuts in
such a scenario, as opposed to when the Fed cuts during recessions.
The
coming week includes reports on manufacturing, consumer confidence and durable
goods, as well as the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key
inflation measure.
Attention
will be squarely on employment after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central
bank wanted to stay ahead of any weakening in the job market as the Fed
announced its
cut this week. The closely-watched monthly U.S. jobs report is due on Oct
4.
More
Wall
St Week Ahead: Investor focus turns to data, election, earnings after Fed cut |
Reuters
In
other news, FedEx is signalling recession. Only mugs and muppets are buying stocks
here, as Warren Buffett is selling.
FedEx
earnings miss could signal a slowing economy
By Chris Isidore, CNN Published 11:08 AM EDT, Fri September 20,
2024
CNN — FedEx
said a weaker industrial economy produced a “challenging” quarter that caused
it to trim its outlook for later this year, a sign of possible cooling in the
wider economy.
The
company, sometimes seen as a bellwether for the US and global economies by
investors, focused most of its concerns on industrial customers who ship goods
to other businesses, not on consumers who make up the overwhelming majority of
US economic activity. In fact CEO Rajesh Subramaniam said the company is seeing
e-commerce shipments “start to grow again.”
But
the industrial customers are the source of worry for FedEx, and for investors,
who sent shares of FedEx (FDX) down 14% on Friday.
“The
soft industrial economy is clearly weighing on the (business-to-business)
volumes, and it was definitely much weaker than we expected and we have to make
adjustments accordingly,” Subramaniam told investors in a call
Thursday following its late-day report. “And as you know, shipments linked to
industrial production are our highest-yielding and the most profitable.”
The
company said that led to “reduced demand for priority services (and) increased
demand for deferred services.”
FedEx
is a company created and built on the need of people to get packages moved fast
— it’s in the name, after all. When people stop doing that in the interest of
saving money, it’s bad news for the company.
FedEx
experienced “pretty dramatic changes” in the shift in the mix from priority to
deferred, according to CFO John Dietrich in the investors call, even though he
said the total volumes “were, for the most part, pretty strong.”
The
weaker-than-expected results came the day after the Federal Reserve made a
bigger-than-expected interest rate cut of half a
percentage point in
an effort to spur US economic activity. Subramaniam cited that cut in his
remarks to analysts.
“The
magnitude of the Fed rate cuts yesterday signals the weakness of the current
environment,” he said. “Now, we’re not assuming a significant comeback on the
industrial environment in the rest of this (calendar year).”
More
FedEx earnings
miss could signal a slowing economy | CNN Business
Maritime
employers prep for longshore strike, port shutdowns
September
20, 2024
According
to reporting from CNBC and
and the Journal of Commerce, Port of New York/New Jersey executives
are preparing for a complete work stoppage by the International Longshoreman’s
Association, the largest union in North America. The strike could have
far-reaching effects as close to half of all monthly U.S. imports would be
impacted, representing billions of dollars in trade, and logistics firms are
preparing contingency plans last used during Covid and 2018 tariffs.
The
ILA represents over 85,000 longshoremen and a strike would shut down five of
the 10 busiest ports in North America, and a total of 36 ports along the East
and Gulf Coasts, on October 1. Between 43%-49% of all U.S. imports and billions
of dollars in trade monthly are at stake as the union moves closer to the Oct.
1 deadline for a new contract. Cruise operations would continue.
Talks
with port ownership broke down over the summer and it remains unclear how much
progress, if any, is being made. The ILA rank-and-file recently voted
unanimously to authorize a strike and the group which represents port
management, the United States Maritime Alliance, recently stated that it
believes the union has already made the decision to strike.
Beth
Rooney, port director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, told
CNBC that individual ocean carriers and terminal operators are announcing their
ramping down of operations to avoid a pile-up of containers. The Port of New
York/New Jersey has been involved in discussions with ocean carriers and
terminal operators about managing cargo leading up to an interruption, ensuring
appropriate measures are in place to complete cargo movements off the terminals
before any shutdown.
Read
the full story here.
Maritime
employers prep for longshore strike, port shutdowns (lbmjournal.com)
Next
up, guessing the economic cost of central Europe’s floods. While it’s still far
to early to know what the final cost will be, much of central Europe’s commerce,
agriculture, tourism, and harvesting, has been effectively been shut down for a
week with more supply chain destruction to come.
Plus,
stock up on your 2025 needs of your favourite
French wine now.
Destructive
Floods Leave Europe to Face the Costs of Cleaning Up
Natalia
Ojewska and Andrea Dudik Thu 19 September
2024 at 9:45 am BST
----About
145 kilometers (90 miles) south across the border in the Czech Republic, people
in Opava know exactly what their Polish counterparts are trying to avoid.
The
city is also bustling, but with people in rain boots carrying shovels. Slippery
streets are filled with piles of mud and furniture, toys, clothes, boxes,
appliances — everything that can be jettisoned from inundated homes. Flooding
engulfed 6,500 buildings.
“It
was the worst shock of my life, I could not stop crying,” Lucie Blankova, 36,
owner of the Dik a Cau bistro in Opava. She and her employees had put equipment
on tables above 1.2 meters to save it, but the water peaked at 1.4 meters
inside the building. “Since then, we’ve been cleaning up.”
The
scenes encapsulate the drama over the past week as central Europe experienced
its worst flooding for decades when summer heat turned into a violent storm. As
the shock of what’s still unfolding recedes, attention is inevitably turning to
the cost, both economic and political.
It’s
too early for concrete figures on the damage from water levels that have left
more than 20 people dead. What’s already clear, though, is that the Polish and
Czech economies will take a knock and government coffers are going to get more
stretched all while ministers try to move quickly to demonstrate they are on
top of the crisis.
In
Poland, the largest economy in the European Union’s east, Prime Minister Donald
Tusk is aiming to avoid spending cuts ahead of a presidential election next
year. But the flooding now may lead to a change in the budget, which is already
on course for a record deficit in 2025, according to Santander Bank Polska
economists. Consumer prices also may be slightly higher, due to crop damage and
supply disruptions.
Eager
to avoid opposition attacks, Tusk has sought to show he’s all over the rescue
effort. Since the flooding started, the main news channels have carried live
coverage of his twice-a-day check-ins with his crisis staff in Wroclaw.
----The
Polish government pledged at least 2 billion zloty ($520 million) in immediate
aid, with each affected family getting 10,000 zloty to live and then 100,000
zloty or 200,000 zloty to renovate homes. Each time Tusk spoke about the aid,
he emphasized that it was free and non-repayable.
----While
flood waters continued to drop in the Czech Republic, thousands of households
remained without electricity and some roads and railway lines were closed for
inspection and repairs, including a highway link with Poland. Some bridges have
been damaged so severely they will need to be pulled down and replaced,
according to authorities.
ING
Group NV reckons the damage across the country to reach about 40 billion koruna
($1.8 billion), or 0.5% of gross domestic product, with less than a half of the
amount covered by insurance. The cost might force the government to raise its
budget deficit ceiling, ING economist David Havrlant wrote in a report. The
rebuilding effort also could have inflationary effects, he said.
For
now, damage assessment is mainly anecdotal. In Opava, a doctor was cleaning up
his office with a power wash as wrecked furniture stood outside. He said
compared with the last flooding that crippled the region in 1997, the flood
water was even higher by a good 20 centimeters. He put his damage at least
500,000 koruna.
Eatery
owner Blankova is hoping she can keep the recovery to 1 million koruna, though
said “it’s all too fresh.” There were chairs, tables and refrigerators outside,
all being cleaned up, though a lot of kitchen equipment was being discarded.
The outside seating area was destroyed.
----The
overall human and economic impact also pales in comparison with much deadlier
Czech floods in 2002, which inflicted damage worth 2.7% of GDP.
There’s
also potentially more money from the EU. Slovenia, which was hit by floods last
year, will receive €428 million ($477 million) from the bloc’s Solidarity Fund
for reconstruction, which will continue for years to come. The government’s
estimate for damage, though, jumped from €500 million to an eyewatering €10
billion.
More.
Destructive Floods
Leave Europe to Face the Costs of Cleaning Up (yahoo.com)
France
to pay €120 million to uproot 30,000 hectares of vineyards
20
September 2024
he
French government has submitted a €120 million plan to uproot 30,000 hectares
of the country’s vineyards in response to a shrinking wine sector.
The
plan, created by the state, the Nouvelle-Aquitaine region and the Bordeaux Wine
Interprofessional Counsel, will uproot 30,000 of the nation’s 800,000 hectares
of vineyards.
It’s
part of a wider plan by the Ministry of Agriculture to uproot as much as
100,000 hectares. The Gironde department has already begun to reduce its
vineyards by 8,000 hectares.
Vineyard
owners have been offered as much as €4,000 per hectare they allow the
government to uproot. Those who accept the offers aren’t allowed replant vines
on the same land until at least 2029.
Wine
consumption in France has been in freefall for multiple decades, dropping by
70% in the last 60 years. The average French citizen drank 120 litres of wine a
year in the 1960s. It’s now just 40 litres, says the French Observatory for
Drugs and Drug Addiction (OFDT).
The
trend is increasing in severity, government institution FranceAgriMer says,
with red
wine sales dropping by 15% in just the past three years.
Young
French people are rejecting wine as their go-to
drink.
Changing drinking habits such as preferring beer to wine, and a wider rejection
of drinking alcohol entirely by under 34s has fuelled this change in the
market.
France’s
wine industry is also being impacted by a reduced international demand for the
drink. 2023 wine export figures were down 10% on the previous year. France was
the largest wine exporter in the world in 2023 delivering 48 million
hectoliters, although Italy is likely to regain that title this year.
More
France to pay €120
million to uproot 30,000 hectares of vineyards (msn.com)
Finally,
so you really, really, really want to drive a Tesla Cybertruck.
Cybertruck
owners are complaining about premature tire wear, but this isn’t just a Tesla
problem
September
17, 2024
Social
media and Reddit has been
abuzz with a Cybertruck owner’s tale of tire woe, as the Cyberbeast driver suggested in
a post that
the rubber shrouding the polygonal EV’s 20-inch wheels has worn to a point
where it needs replacing after just 6,000 miles.
The
rate at which a tire wears is heavily dependent on the vehicle in question and
how it is driven, but in general, having to replace a set after this sort of
low mileage driving on public roads is not commonplace.
According
to most sources of motoring information (your local tire supplier, or breakdown
services), most drivers will get a minimum of 20,000 miles out of a set of
tires in a front-wheel-drive car, extending to 40,000 for rear-wheel-drive
machines.
Again,
this is all highly dependent on the vehicle in question and the driving style,
so the fact that forums have been alive with suggestions that Cybertruck chews
through tires prematurely is probably giving Tesla an unduly hard time.
Without
knowing all of the facts surrounding Cyber
Truck Owners Club user
Santoshm’s Cyberbeast (camber, wheel alignment, wheel balancing and tire
pressures could be off, causing premature wear), it is difficult to say why
they are experience such a poor return on rubber.
But
the fact of the matter is, a truck that weighs 6,920lbs (that’s over three
tonnes, metric fans) and produces 833bhp with a staggering 10296 lb-ft (13959
Nm) of torque is going to chew through tires – even if owners go easy on the
throttle.
It
comes as no surprise that similarly large electric EVs are also running into
issues when it comes to tire wear. Last year, Rivian
owners took
to Facebook and other social media channels to complain of similarly poor
tread-life on the R1T.
Again,
this could have easily been down to a number of contributing factors, but many
posited that 'Conserve Mode', which cuts power to the rear axle and lowers the
ride height for increased aerodynamic efficiency, forces the front tires to do
all the work – and messes with the overall geometry that can lead to incorrect
wheel alignment and uneven wear.
But
really, it could just be that this big, heavy and massively powerful truck
tears off the line at every traffic light opportunity, just because it can.
The
Tesla Cybertruck, particularly the range-topping Cyberbeast variant, is
automotive hyperbole incarnate. Over-powered, over-weight and over-styled (or
should that be under-styled?), it pushes the very boundaries of automotive
design and engineering.
But
while it is often easy to poke fun at Musk and his, at-times, madcap EV outfit,
Tesla isn’t alone in bestowing extremely heavy electric vehicles with insane
performance figures.
As
is the way with electric motors in general, the amount of torque they can put
down near-instantaneously means that the modern tire has to work harder than it
ever has... and modern tires aren't cheap.
There
was a time when investing in a 500bhp+ performance car came with the unwritten
rule that tire bills would be financially crippling, but it feels like this has
been lost in the world of EVs.
Take
the frankly ridiculous Smart #1 Brabus model, as an example. This compact,
largely generic family SUV develops 428bhp and 584Nm (431ft lb) of torque,
it can accelerate from 0-62mph in 3.2 seconds and yet it weighs 2,325kg
(5,126lbs).
Having
driven said car, I was shocked at how often it spun its wheels under some
'spirited' throttle input. As a result, I would bet good money tire bills won’t
be cheap on the Smart car, either.
So
it begs the question – just because they are capable of it, do modern EVs
really need this sort of power?
And
surely the number of rubber particulates that something like a Cybertruck is
kicking into the atmosphere is undoing some of the work battery packs and
electric motors are carrying out in order to to reduce local emissions?
The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always
print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.
Alan Greenspan.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
This weekend poor
Europe.
Mercedes-Benz
trims 2024 core profit outlook again after China sales fall
Updated / Friday, 20 Sep 2024 09:26
Mercedes-Benz has cut its full-year profit margin
target for the second time in less than two months, joining a growing number of
rivals that are blaming a weakening Chinese car market, the world's largest.
The news, disclosed late last night, sent shares in
the German luxury carmaker 7.5% lower to their weakest level in nearly two
months, also dragging down European car stocks.
With GDP growth in China losing momentum due to
weaker consumption as well as a continued downturn in the real estate sector,
the company cut its earnings outlook for 2024 for both Mercedes-Benz Cars and
the Mercedes-Benz Group.
"There is a tremendous amount of cautiousness,
I'm trying to say this diplomatically," CEO Ola Kaellenius told analysts
in a call following the announcement, adding it was not surprising that
spending for expensive capital goods was pared back in such an environment.
"How long will that go on? I don't know, but I
remain cautious for the foreseeable future on China," the CEO said.
The continuing weak demand for luxury cars in China
had prompted the Stuttgart-based carmaker to already trim its outlook in July.
Mercedes-Benz Cars now expects an adjusted return on
sales to be between 7.5% and 8.5% in 2024, down from 10% to 11% previously,
implying an expected adjusted return on sales of around 6% for the second half
of the year.
As a result, Mercedes-Benz Group's earnings before
interest and taxes (EBIT) are now expected to be significantly below last
year's level of €19.7 billion, compared with a forecast for a slight drop
previously.
More
Mercedes-Benz trims 2024 core profit outlook again (rte.ie)
VW plots 30,000 job losses as the crisis
engulfing Germany's car industry deepens
19 September
2024
The crisis
engulfing Germany’s car industry is deepening as Volkswagen considers cutting
up to 30,000 jobs to save cash.
The car maker recently
said it could close factories in its home country for the first time in its
87-year history.
Analysts at
investment bank Jefferies said VW was mulling closing two to three facilities,
which it said could put as many as 15,000 jobs at risk.
But losses could
hit as high as 30,000, according to the German publication Manager Magazin.
Germany, the
Continent’s largest economy and one-time industrial powerhouse, is undergoing a
prolonged manufacturing downturn that has seen it dubbed ‘the sick man of
Europe’.
That is partly
attributed to China muscling on to its turf and going head to head with its car
making sector.
VW is its
largest industrial employer and Europe’s top car maker by revenue.
The company
employs about 300,000 staff in Germany. It has said major cost-cutting measures
are needed across the group.
A spokesman for
the group said: ‘We do not confirm the figure. One thing is clear: Volkswagen
has to reduce its costs at its German sites.
‘How we will
achieve this goal together with the employee representatives is part of the
upcoming talks.’
VW plots 30,000 job losses as the crisis engulfing Germany's car industry
deepens (msn.com)
Germany suffers ‘spectacular’ 70pc drop in
electric car sales
19, September
2024
ermany has
suffered a “spectacular” drop in electric car sales as the European Union faces
growing calls to delay its net zero vehicle targets.
The European
Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) said sales of new battery-powered electric vehicles (EV) in Germany plunged by nearly 70pc to 27,024 in August.
In France, the
EU’s second largest market for battery electric vehicles behind Germany,
deliveries fell by 33pc to 13,143.
ACEA said “the
spectacular drop” in both countries meant that only 92,627 battery electric
vehicles were registered across Europe last month, a fall of 43.9pc compared to
a year earlier. This drove a wider 18pc drop in new car sales across the EU.
The collapse in
EV sales comes amid concerns about their range, high prices and the lack of
charging infrastructure across the EU.
Felipe Munoz, a
global automotive analyst at JATO Dynamics, said: “The reality is that whether
you look at business or private, electric vehicles do not convince yet.”
There are
concerns about demand for EVs among British drivers too. Separate data showed
that the growth rate of EV sales in the UK had dramatically slowed.
Some 213,500 EVs
were sold in the first eight months of 2024, up by 10.5pc compared to the
previous year. That compared to annual growth of 40.5pc over the same period in
2023, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders
(SMMT).
Mike Hawes, head
of the SMMT, said earlier this month: “Encouraging a mass market shift to EVs
remains a challenge and urgent action must be taken to help buyers overcome
affordability issues and concerns about chargepoint provision.”
Mr Munoz added that
Germany’s EV slump was fuelled by economic uncertainty and the EU’s new tariffs on China-made electric cars, which has pushed up prices at the more affordable end of the market.
He predicted
there will be “more problems” for Germany in the coming months amid waning
enthusiasm for EVs among corporate fleets.
More
Germany suffers ‘spectacular’ 70pc drop in electric car sales (msn.com)
BASF’s
conglomerate structure can’t take the strain
German
chemicals group has been buffeted by high energy prices and hamstrung customers
19 September
2024
A strong economy
is a wonderful thing. It enables all sorts of industries to flourish — and
companies to get away with all sorts of ramshackle corporate structures.
Without such tailwinds, management teams have to sharpen their axe if they are
to deliver any value at all.
That is one way
to read the slow demise of the German industrial
conglomerate. Thyssenkrupp spun off hydrogen and is engaged in a complex
effort to carve out its steel business. Siemens has a fraction of the sprawl it
once did. Bayer has kicked the can down the road on a mooted three-way
break-up. The Covestro chemicals unit that it spun out in 2015 is being snapped
up by Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc.
BASF, with its
six segments and 11 operating divisions, appears poised to join the fray. The
German chemicals giant’s new-ish chief executive, Markus Kamieth, is reportedly
considering the future of three divisions — agricultural solutions (pesticides
and seeds) coatings (paint for cars) and battery materials. These made perhaps
€15.5bn of sales in 2023, out of its total of nearly €70bn, and have been
turned into separate legal entities. BASF sold its upstream oil and gas assets
to Harbour Energy at the end of last year.
It is easy to
see why BASF may be tempted to restructure. High energy prices and hamstrung
customers — witness the plight of German auto manufacturers — have hit sales
and margins. It will be free cash flow negative after dividend distributions
this year and next, thinks Bernstein. The stock is down nearly 30 per cent in
the past five years.
The result is
that BASF, at €42bn of market capitalisation, is trading on a 20 per cent
discount to the sum of its parts, according to Berenberg analysis. It may not
be the best time to extract value from agriculture — US farm profitability is
forecast to decline — or car coatings, given the travails of the auto sector.
But they are big businesses, with an EV of perhaps €25bn between them: setting
them loose would help narrow the valuation gap.
Attractive
though that might be, however, it would not solve BASF’s underlying strategic
problem. Its chemicals division, which turns petroleum products into the base
and intermediate molecules needed to make everything else, is seriously
challenged. A big chunk of its production is in Europe, where energy prices are
a multiple of those of its US and Asian competitors. The unit is in poor shape,
with a 3.3 per cent return on capital employed last year, and more than €900mn
of negative cash flow. BASF’s restructuring efforts will have to run deeper
still.
BASF’s conglomerate structure can’t take the strain (ft.com)
UK consumers take fright as new government
warns of pain, survey shows
20 September
2024
LONDON (Reuters)
-Prime Minister Keir Starmer's warnings about the state of the British economy
and the likely need for tax increases in next month's budget have caused
consumer confidence to plunge this month, according to a survey published on
Friday.
The GfK Consumer
Confidence Index dropped to a six-month low of -20 in September from August's
-13, which was the joint-highest in nearly three years.
A Reuters poll
of economists had pointed to another reading of -13. Instead the reading marked
the biggest September drop since 1976.
Starmer and
finance minister Rachel Reeves were elected in July, vowing to rebuild the
economy after inheriting what they said was the worst economic circumstances
since the Second World War, prompting some business leaders to complain that
the message of doom and gloom could hurt confidence and growth.
Reeves has said
she will strip a 200-pound ($265) annual fuel subsidy from 10 million
pensioners and warned taxes were likely to rise by more than she had judged
necessary just weeks earlier, before the election.
Neil Bellamy,
Consumer Insights Director at GfK, said households appeared to be responding to
the messages by Starmer about the need for a "painful" budget due at
the end of next month and the announcement of some early cost-cutting measures.
Official data
published on Friday also showed Britain's public debt had hit 100% of economic
output last month, a level not hit on a sustained basis since the 1960s.
"Following
the withdrawal of the winter fuel payments, and clear warnings of further
difficult decisions to come on tax, spending and welfare, consumers are
nervously awaiting the Budget decisions on Oct. 30," GfK's Bellamy said.
NOT ENCOURAGING
All five
measures of confidence in the GfK survey - the longest-running measure of
British consumer sentiment - fell this month with views on the economy over the
coming year down by 12 points, GfK said.
More
UK consumers take fright as new government warns of pain, survey shows
(msn.com)
Dimon Says He’s Skeptical of Soft Landing
After Rate Cut
September 20,
2024
JPMorgan Chase
& Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said he
remains skeptical about a soft landing in the US following the Federal
Reserve’s first rate cut in more than four years — and said he wouldn’t “count
my eggs” on that outcome.
“I am a little
more skeptical than other people. I give it lower odds,” he said at The
Atlantic Festival event in Washington on Friday. “
More,
subscription required.
JPMorgan's
Dimon Says He’s Skeptical of Soft Landing After Rate Cut - Bloomberg
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
A new genetic analysis of animals in the Wuhan
market in 2019 may help find COVID-19's origin
19 September 2024
Scientists searching for the origins of COVID-19
have zeroed in on a short list of animals that possibly helped spread it to
people, an effort they hope could allow them to trace the outbreak back to its
source.
Researchers analyzed
genetic material gathered from the Chinese market where the first outbreak was detected and found that the
most likely animals were racoon dogs, civet cats and bamboo rats. The
scientists suspect infected animals were first brought to the Wuhan market in late November 2019, which then triggered the pandemic.
Michael Worobey, one of
the new study’s authors, said they found which sub-populations of animals might
have spread the coronavirus, which may help researchers identify COVID-19’s
natural reservoir.
“For example, with the
racoon dogs, we can show that the racoon dogs that were (at the market) … were
from a sub-species that circulates more in southern parts of China,” said
Worobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona. Knowing that might
help researchers understand where those animals came from and where they were
sold. Scientists might then start sampling bats in the area, which are known to
be the natural reservoirs of related coronaviruses like SARS.
While the research
bolsters the case that COVID-19 emerged from animals, it does not resolve the
polarized and political debate over whether the virus instead emerged from a
research lab in China.
Mark Woolhouse, a
professor of infectious diseases at the University of Edinburgh, said the new
genetic analysis suggested that the pandemic “had its evolutionary roots in the
market” and that it was very unlikely COVID-19 was infecting people before it was
identified at the Huanan market.
“It’s a significant
finding and this does shift the dial more in favor of an animal origin,"
Woolhouse, who was not connected to the research, said. “But it is not
conclusive.”
----An AP investigation in April found the search for the COVID origins in
China has gone dark after political infighting and missed opportunities by
local and global health officials to narrow the possibilities.
Scientists say they may
never know for sure where exactly the virus came from.
In the new study,
published Thursday in the journal Cell, scientists from Europe, the U.S. and
Australia analyzed data previously released by experts at the Chinese Center
for Disease Control and Prevention. It included 800 samples of genetic material
Chinese workers collected on Jan. 1, 2020 from the Huanan seafood market, the
day after Wuhan municipal authorities first raised the alarm about an unknown
respiratory virus.
Chinese scientists
published the genetic sequences they found last year, but did not identify any
of the animals possibly infected with the coronavirus. In the new analysis,
researchers used a technique that can identify specific organisms from any
mixture of genetic material collected in the environment.
Worobey said the
information provides “a snapshot of what was (at the market) before the
pandemic began” and that genetic analyses like theirs “helps to fill in the
blanks of how the virus might have first started spreading.”
Woolhouse said the new
study, while significant, left some critical issues unanswered.
“There is no question
COVID was circulating at that market, which was full of animals,” he said. “The
question that still remains is how it got there in the first place.”
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Tiny nuclear battery promises decades of uninterrupted power in
sea, space
19 September 2024
Researchers have created a nuclear
battery with unprecedented efficiency: 8,000 times more efficient. The battery
developed by the research team at China’s Soochow University harnesses the
energy of radioactive decay, a process associated with nuclear waste.
“Micronuclear batteries harness energy
from the radioactive decay of radioisotopes to generate electricity on a small
scale, typically in the nanowatt or microwatt range,” said researchers in their
study.
They state the process of radioactive
decay is not influenced by environmental factors, including temperature,
pressure, and magnetic fields.
“It makes the micronuclear battery an
enduring and reliable power source in scenarios in which conventional batteries
prove impractical or challenging to replace.”
This development brings us closer to a
future where miniature power sources can operate for decades without needing a
recharge.
Innovative design
Notably, the concept of utilizing
radioactive decay to create long-lasting batteries has intrigued scientists for
over a hundred years. However, low efficiency has previously limited their
practical use.
This innovative battery design is based
on the strategic combination of materials. The team utilized americium, a
radioactive element usually considered nuclear waste, which emits energy
through alpha particles.
These particles are highly energetic but
tend to lose their energy quickly to their surroundings, making them difficult
to harness efficiently.
“Severe self-adsorption in traditional
architectures of micronuclear batteries impedes high-efficiency α-decay energy
conversion, making the development of α-radioisotope micronuclear batteries
challenging,” noted the study.
Transforming energy
To address this, the researchers
embedded americium in a specialized polymer crystal that acts like a
transformer. It changes the fleeting energy of alpha particles into a stable
and sustained green luminescence.
This glowing crystal is subsequently
paired with a photovoltaic cell, which is a device that converts light into
electricity. It is similar to a miniature solar panel but powered by the green
glow from the americium-doped crystal instead of sunlight.
The setup is then encased in a small
quartz cell. The result is a micro-nuclear battery that, despite its minuscule
size, can generate a stable supply of electricity for decades.
“Contrary to chemical batteries, the
longevity of a micronuclear battery is tied to the half-life of the used
radioisotope, enabling operational lifetimes that can span several decades,”
remarked the study.
Testing revealed that this battery could
produce a steady electricity supply for over 200 hours, demonstrating
exceptional longevity. It manages to do so with minimal radioactive material,
making it a safer and more sustainable option.
Despite americium’s extensive half-life
of 7,380 years, the operational lifespan of the nuclear battery is expected to
span only a few decades. This limitation arises because the components encasing
the radioactive material
will gradually degrade over time due to radiation exposure.
More
Tiny nuclear battery promises decades of uninterrupted power in sea,
space (msn.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Another long forgotten composer. Approx.
10 minutes.
Francesco
Barsanti (1690-1775) - Concerto Grosso à 8 (1742)
Francesco Barsanti
(1690-1775) - Concerto Grosso à 8 (1742) (youtube.com)
Francesco
Barsanti
Francesco Barsanti
- Wikipedia
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 11 minutes.
Everyone
is Undefeated Until They Face Magnus
Everyone is
Undefeated Until They Face Magnus - YouTube
This
weekend’s final diversion. Inside the RMS
Titanic. Approx. 22 minutes. Next weekend, the Gateway Arch.
What's
inside the Titanic?
What's inside the
Titanic? - YouTube
The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the
welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion
of credit. In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect
savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value.
Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the hidden confiscation of wealth. Gold
stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of
property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the
statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.
Alan Greenspan.
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