Saturday, 14 September 2024

Special Update 14/09/2024 Get Gold (And Silver.) Nuclear War One?

Baltic Dry Index. 1890 -37         Brent Crude 71.61

Spot Gold 2577              U S 2 Year Yield 3.57 -0.07

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.

Ernest Hemingway.

In the stock casinos, frontrunning next week’s US central bank meeting. A 50 basis point interest rate cut or a disappointing, mere 25 basis point cut.

Lost in this latest bout of stock mania and bubble, growing sign of a new US recession underway.

Equally lost in the current AI tech bubble madness, is, is September 2024, September 1913 in our Washington-London War Party race to start WW3, or is September 2024 early July 1914 in the race to start Nuclear War One?

Don’t worry, this time it’s different, right. Besides Putin’s bluffing, he wouldn’t dare first strike NATO would he?

Does history repeat and blunder us into the modern equivalent of WW1?

S&P 500 and Nasdaq rally Friday to cap best week in 2024: Live updates

Updated Fri, Sep 13 2024 4:56 PM EDT

Stocks rose on Friday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite posting their strongest week of 2024 ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.54% and closed at 5,626.02, less than 1% from its July all-time high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.65% to end at 17,683.98. Both indexes posted their fifth consecutive winning day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 297.01 points, or 0.72%, closing at 41,393.78.

Utilities, communications services and industrials led the market higher on Friday, with each sector adding roughly 1%.

Investors also continued to rake up shares of megacap tech and semiconductor names, which helped drive this week’s rebound rally after tech’s recent underperformance. Powerhouse chipmakers Super Micro Computer and Arm Holdings added 3.4% and 5.9%, respectively. Alphabet advanced 1.8% and Uber jumped more than 6%.

“Investors are on guard for further bouts of volatility, particularly given the expectations surrounding the Fed meeting,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. She noted that based on historical patterns, stocks typically have their roughest performance of the year during the second half of September.

On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 rose 4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 5.9%, the best week this year for both indexes. The Dow has advanced 2.6% during the period.

Wall Street is now looking ahead toward the Fed’s policy meeting on Sept. 17-18, where the central bank is largely anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points. Currently, the Fed’s target rate is sitting at 5.25% to 5.5%.

Economic data reflecting a moderation in inflation also seemed to support the case for a rate cut. The consumer price index in August came in at 2.5% on annualized basis, the lowest level since February 2021. Wholesale prices, meanwhile, rose 0.2% in August, coming in line with expectations.

Stock market news September 13, 2024 (cnbc.com)

In other news, so you really, really really want an EV. 

It took 50,000 gallons of water to put out Tesla Semi fire in California, US agency says

Updated 11:34 PM GMT+1, September 12, 2024

WASHINGTON (AP) — California firefighters had to douse a flaming battery in a Tesla Semi with about 50,000 gallons (190,000 liters) of water to extinguish flames after a crash, the National Transportation Safety Board said Thursday.

In addition to the huge amount of water, firefighters used an aircraft to drop fire retardant on the “immediate area” of the electric truck as a precautionary measure, the agency said in a preliminary report.

Firefighters said previously that the battery reached temperatures of 1,000 degrees Fahrenheit (540 Celsius) while it was in flames.

The NTSB sent investigators to the Aug. 19 crash along Interstate 80 near Emigrant Gap, about 70 miles (113 kilometers) northeast of Sacramento. The agency said it would look into fire risks posed by the truck’s large lithium-ion battery.

The agency also found that the truck was not operating on one of Tesla’s partially automated driving systems at the time of the crash, the report said. The systems weren’t operational and “could not be engaged,” according to the agency.

The crash happened about 3:13 a.m. as the tractor-trailer was being driven by a Tesla employee from Livermore, California, to a Tesla facility in Sparks, Nevada. The Semi left the road while going around a curve to the right and hit a tree, the report said. It went down a slope and came to rest against several trees. The driver was not hurt.

After the crash, the Semi’s lithium-ion battery ignited. Firefighters used water to put out flames and keep the batteries cool. The freeway was closed for about 15 hours as firefighters made sure the batteries were cool enough to recover the truck.

Authorities took the truck to an open-air facility and monitored it for 24 hours. The battery did not reignite.

The NTSB said all aspects of the crash are under investigation as it determines the cause. The agency said it intends to issue safety recommendations to prevent similar incidents.

More

It took 50,000 gallons of water to put out Tesla Semi fire, US agency says | AP News

Finally, Britain’s Office for Budget Responsibility’s has a warning on GB’s fiat money future. 

Still, forecasts for the next 50 years, is of very little use. Tomorrow will not be like today, which was like yesterday. Today, we have tomorrow’s Great AI future, aka AI bubble.

National debt: Government must reform or things will ‘blow up’

Thursday 12 September 2024 4:45 pm

Sooner or later the British government is going to face a reckoning on the national debt.

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) latest report on debt sustainability makes clear that the government cannot keep increasing spending on public services in line with demand while also leaving the tax base unchanged.

That’s because demand on public services is going to rise steadily, largely due to the UK’s ageing population. The OBR projects that public spending will rise to 60 per cent of GDP, up from 45 per cent at the moment, whereas revenue will remain flat.

It is worth pointing out that this scenario is, in many ways, fairly optimistic.

For a start, it does not include the impact of possible unforeseen shocks – since they are impossible to forecast – but it seems a certainty that there will be some shocks between now and 2074 (just think about the past 15 years).

The OBR’s productivity forecasts are also relatively optimistic compared to many peers. If they prove to be overly optimistic, that will make a huge impact on debt (more on that later).

So, there’s good reason to think things could be significantly worse than the OBR’s main forecasts. Indeed, the OBR includes a forecast with added shocks which sees national debt rise to 300 per cent of GDP.

Don’t get lost in the numbers though. The entire point is that the government cannot keep on increasing spending without broadening the tax base. As David Miles, a senior official at the OBR, said, “at some point it will blow up”.

The central message of the report, then, is that the state has to reform.

The scale of required reform is large. Returning debt to its pre-pandemic levels would require tax increases or spending cuts worth around £40bn per decade over the next 50 years, the OBR estimates.

More

National debt: Government must reform or things will 'blow up' (cityam.com)

Montana miner to lay off hundreds due to declining palladium prices

Updated 11:51 PM GMT+1, September 12, 2024

NYE, Mont. (AP) — The owner of the only platinum and palladium mines in the U.S. announced Thursday it plans to lay off hundreds of employees in Montana due to declining prices for palladium, which is used in catalytic converters.

The price of the precious metal was about $2,300 an ounce two years ago and has dipped below $1,000 an ounce over the past three months, Sibanye-Stillwater Executive Vice President Kevin Robertson said in a letter to employees explaining the estimated 700 layoffs expected later this year.

“We believe Russian dumping is a cause of this sharp price dislocation,” he wrote. “Russia produces over 40% of the global palladium supply, and rising imports of palladium have inundated the U.S. market over the last several years.”

Sibanye-Stillwater gave employees a 60-day notice of the layoffs, which is required by federal law.

----The south-central Montana mine complex includes the Stillwater West and Stillwater East operations near Nye, and the East Boulder operation south of Big Timber. It has lost more than $350 million since the beginning of 2023, Robertson said, despite reducing production costs.

The company is putting the Stillwater West operations on pause. It is also reducing operations at East Boulder and at a smelting facility and metal refinery in Columbus. Leadership will work to improve efficiencies that could allow the Stillwater West mine to reopen, Robertson said.

The layoffs would come a year after the company stopped work on an expansion project, laid off 100 workers, left another 30 jobs unfilled and reduced the amount of work available for contractors due to declining palladium prices.

Montana miner to lay off hundreds due to declining palladium prices | AP News

Gold is money. Everything else is credit.

J. P. Morgan.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch. 

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

The first requisite of a sound monetary system is that it put the least possible power over the quantity or quality of money in the hands of the politicians.

Henry Hazlitt.

This weekend, something a little different. Why I think nearly everyone now needs an US election hedge.

Though I didn't listen in to the great presidential debate, merely listening to the following spin by the mostly leftist media for VP Harris.

But what struck me most was that one of these two candidates will likely be President come next January.  But both have crackpot ideas regarding the US economy. An economy already drowning in 35.3 trillion in debt. It was "only" 33.0 trillion at the end of last October. Come November 1, it will be close to 36 trillion, if not slightly more.

Of the two, candidate Harris poses the greatest risk, proposing wage and price controls, taxes on unrealised "profits" and a free $50,000 for new business start ups.  I will start up an internet Water Mellons R Us, new business to get my free $50,000 operating from a business accommodation address in Little Havana, Miami. Be sure to put in for your free $50,000 too.

Candidate Trump is proposing a trade war against the rest of the world starting with tariffs against friend and foe alike, plus sanctions on most of the world's banks.

Although theoretically, it's possible for a hung Electoral College, meaning the House elects the President and the Senate elects the VP, it hasn't happened since 1837 and isn't likely to happen this year.

So that brings me to the conclusion I need to hedge against either becoming President and hastening the demise of the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money and with it the dollar reserve standard.

While the rapidly expanding BRICS nations are talking about a new trade currency backed by gold and a pool of their currencies, it hasn't got off the talking floor yet, and in my opinion, has little chance of success.

The BIS, ECB, Fed, BOE, BOJ, PBC and other central banks all have investigations into digital currencies underway, with a few trying out early phase testing, but CBDCs don't seem at this time to be an effective hedge against the next 4 years of US economic risk. London Irvine Report: CBDCs

In that respect, only an increased holding of fully paid up, physical gold and silver, stored outside of the US Canadian and UK banking systems, (they have form in stealing other people’s gold,) seems to offer a reasonable and achievable hedge against the next 4 years.

I'm old enough to remember the old Swiss banking recommendation to hold 10 percent of one's wealth in physical gold. That ended when the western central banks began selling off some of their gold in the 80s and 90s. 

But central banks are gold buyers again, led by China and the "stans," probably as a hedge against the Biden weaponised dollar and America's alarming unrepayable, in any meaningful sense, debt.

I think it's time to hold close to 10 percent of one's wealth in gold once again, although I would prefer a 50:50 split between gold and silver. I also think it wisest to act before the election itself on November 5th.

China’s retail sales and industrial data miss expectations in August

Published Fri, Sep 13 2024 10:00 PM EDTU

EIJING — China’s retail sales, industrial production and urban investment in August all grew slower than expected, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Saturday.

Retail sales rose by 2.1% in August from a year ago, missing expectations of 2.5% growth among economists polled by Reuters. That was also slower than the 2.7% increase in July.

Industrial production rose by 4.5% in August from a year ago, lagging the 4.8% growth forecast by Reuters. That also marked a slowdown from a 5.1% rise in July.

Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% for the January to August period, slower than the forecast of 3.5% growth.

The urban unemployment rate was 5.3% in August, an uptick from 5.2% in July.

Among fixed asset investment, infrastructure and manufacturing slowed in growth on a year-to-date basis in August, compared to July. Investment in real estate fell by 10.2% for the year through August, the same pace of decline as of July.

National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Liu Aihua attributed the uptick in unemployment to the impact of graduation season. But she said that stabilizing employment requires more work.

This year, the statistics bureau has been releasing the unemployment rate for people ages 16 to 24 who aren’t in school a few days after the wider jobless release. The youth unemployment rate in July was 17.1%.

“We should be aware that the adverse impacts arising from the changes in the external environment are increasing,” the bureau said in an English-language statement. A “sustained economic recovery is still confronted with multiple difficulties and challenges.”

More

China’s retail sales and industrial data miss expectations in August (cnbc.com)

Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted.

Alan Greenspan.

Covid-19 Corner       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

COVID-19 remained at 'very high' activity levels across the US: See latest data

September 12, 2024

The most recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that last month nearly half of the United States have reported "very high" levels of COVID-19 activity.

As concerns with COVID have waned across the U.S., the CDC has come to rely on wastewater data to track the virus, which often lags several weeks behind current case counts.

Data collected between Aug. 25 and Aug. 31 by the CDC showed that 23 states have reported "very high" levels of wastewater viral activity nationwide. The data was published on Sept. 5.

Here are the overall numbers of the states and territories that have reported wastewater viral activity levels as of Aug. 31.

Can't see the table? Click here to view it.

Note: Typically, wastewater data are updated weekly and the data that is published shows the results for the prior week. However, the results can take up to five days to a week to be published online. Thus, the data from Aug. 31 is considered the most recent data.

COVID-19 Current Wastewater Viral Activity Levels Map

Can't see the map? Click here to view it.

More

COVID-19 remained at 'very high' activity levels across the US: See latest data (msn.com)

Health warning as new study links vitamin deficiency affecting millions of Britons to deaths from ALL cancers

12 September 2024

Low levels of the sunshine vitamin may increase your risk of death from all cancers, a horror new study suggests.

The finding is concerning as vitamin D deficiency is a widespread concern in the UK, with around one in six adults affected. It is common during autumn and winter months when sunlight exposure is limited.

Previous studies have linked vitamin D deficiency and an increased risk of cancer mortality but researchers sought to shore up these findings by conducting a comprehensive review of the literature.

The review, published in the journal Nutrients last month, led to the identification of 182 articles from PubMed, 57 from the reference lists of relevant reviews, and three from the Cochrane Library. These articles covered various cancers, 90, 52, 69, 18, and 17 of which were focused on breast, prostate, colorectal, pancreatic, and lung cancers, respectively.

After screening titles, abstracts, and full texts, 41 reviews were included in the qualitative analysis. Thirty-four of these studies provided data on vitamin D levels and cancer, whereas seven studies examined the potential anti-cancer effects of vitamin D intake.

More

Health warning as new study links vitamin deficiency affecting millions of Britons to deaths from ALL cancers (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Battery breakthrough could see electric planes finally take off

11 September 2024

cientists have invented an ultra-strong and lightweight battery made from carbon fibre that they claim is energy-dense enough to power electric planes.

Billed as the world’s strongest battery, a team from Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden said the material is sturdy enough to serve as a load-bearing structure, meaning it can be integrated into the design of a vehicle in order to radically reduce weight and increase range.

“We have succeeded in creating a battery made of carbon fibre composite that is as stiff as aluminium and energy-dense enough to be used commercially,” said Richa Chaudhary, a Chalmers scientist who led the research.

“Just like a human skeleton, the battery has several functions at the same time.”

The new battery design could be used in a wide range of applications, capable of halving the weight of a laptop or making a mobile phone as thin as a credit card. The researchers also claim that it could increase the range of an electric car by 70 per cent.

Using carbon fibres to build batteries was first attempted in 2018, however the energy density was not enough to be used within commercial applications. The latest battery design has an energy density of 30 Wh/kg, which is roughly a quarter the capacity of a comparable lithium-ion battery, however the ability to construct the vehicle with the battery means it takes up far less space and weight.

“In terms of multifunctional properties, the new battery is twice as good as its predecessor – and actually the best ever made in the world,” said Professor Leif Asp from Chalmers University of Technology, who noted that there has already been interest from the automotive and aerospace industries.

“One can imagine that credit card-thin mobile phones or laptops that weigh half as much as today, are the closest in time. It could also be that components such as electronics in cars or planes are powered by structural batteries.

“It will require large investments to meet the transport industry’s challenging energy needs, but this is also where the technology could make the most difference.”

The research into so-called massless energy storage was detailed in a study, titled ‘Unveiling the multifunctional carbon fibre structural battery’, which was published in the journal Advanced Materials on Tuesday.

Battery breakthrough could see electric planes finally take off (msn.com)

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

This weekend’s music diversion. Handel, the organ maestro. Approx. 4 minutes.

Handel: Organ Concerto No. 2 in B-Flat Major, Op. 4 No. 2, HWV 290: 4. Allegro ma non presto

Handel: Organ Concerto No. 2 in B-Flat Major, Op. 4 No. 2, HWV 290: 4. Allegro ma non presto (youtube.com)

This weekend’s chess update. Approx.9 minutes.

Greatest Performance Ever! || Magnus vs Alireza || SCC Final (2024)

Greatest Performance Ever! || Magnus vs Alireza || SCC Final (2024) - YouTube

This weekend’s final diversion.  That Las Vegas Sphere. Approx. 10 minutes. Next weekend, Inside the Titanic.

What's inside of the Sphere? (Las Vegas)

What's inside of the Sphere? (Las Vegas) (youtube.com)

We have gold because we cannot trust governments

Herbert Hoover.

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