Baltic Dry Index. 2016 +02 Brent Crude 72.91
Spot Gold 2662 US 2 Year Yield 3.53 +0.04
The very nature of finance is that it cannot be profitable unless it is significantly leveraged... and as long as there is debt, there can be failure and contagion.
Alan Greenspan.
In the stock casinos, is the party petering out? Despite new punchbowls delivered by the US central bank and China, the new party seems to be pale in comparison to earlier parties.
Meanwhile, in the real economy, from the USA and Canada, to Europe, to China, increasing sign of rising distress.
Well not to worry for the next few days, the last stock casino trading day of the month is coming up on Monday.
After that, two US presidential candidates go into overdrive promising new economic bribes to US voters.
What could possibly go wrong? Well, one of them getting elected for starters.
European stocks set for positive open, spurred on
by gains in Asia-Pacific markets
Published Thu, Sep 26 2024 12:37 AM EDT
LONDON — European stocks are expected to
open in positive territory Thursday, spurred on by gains in Asia-Pacific
markets overnight.
The U.K.’s FTSE index is seen opening
28 points higher at 8,289, Germany’s DAX up 73 points at 18,997,
France’s CAC 40 up
35 points at 7,599 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 169 points at
33,982, according to data from IG.
The positive start to the trading day
anticipated in Europe comes
after Asia-Pacific markets rose overnight, with markets in the region
led by Japan’s Nikkei 225 and
Chinese markets extending gains.
Japan’s Nikkei climbed 2.12%, while
the broad based Topix was up 1.65%, as the Bank of Japan released minutes of its July meeting. Mainland China’s
CSI 300 extended its winning streak to the seventh day.
Stateside, meanwhile, futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average were little changed on Wednesday night after the
index broke a four-day winning streak. Traders will be keeping a close eye on
the weekly jobless claims report, due Thursday.
Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate
223,000 initial unemployment claims were filed for the week ending Sept. 21.
The final reading of second-quarter gross domestic product is also out in the
morning.
Several Federal Reserve officials are also
slated to speak on Thursday, including Chair Jerome Powell and New York Fed
President John Williams.
In Europe, earnings come from H&M
Group and data releases include German consumer confidence figures from GfK.
European markets: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Dow futures are little changed after index breaks
four-day winning run: Live updates
Updated Thu, Sep 26 2024 7:26 PM EDT
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average were little changed on Wednesday night after the
index broke a four-day win streak.
Dow futures slipped 20
points, or 0.05%. S&P 500
futures rose 0.09%. Nasdaq
100 futures climbed 0.3%, boosted higher by shares of Micron Technology.
The semiconductor manufacturer was trading
14% higher in extended trading after issuing strong guidance for the current
quarter. Results for Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter also topped analysts’
estimates. Fellow semiconductor-linked stocks Applied Materials and Lam
Research both rose 4% in sympathy.
In Wednesday’s regular session, both
the S&P 500 and
the Dow retreated
from their records to close lower. The broad market benchmark lost 0.19%, while
the blue-chip average sank 0.70%. Both indexes had hit fresh all-time highs
earlier in the day. The Nasdaq
Composite bucked the trend by inching up 0.04%.
Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research
at Fundstrat Global Advisors, pinned some of Wednesday’s volatility on the
upcoming presidential election.
“What stocks do in the next month is a bit
of a coin flip, and I think that’s what we’re seeing, because there’s some
repositioning that took place and also we’re now thinking about the 40 days
into the election,” he said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Wednesday
afternoon. “A lot [of investors] don’t want to commit capital until after
Election Day. I don’t think it matters who wins; they just want to get that
event behind them.”
Despite Wednesday’s losses, all three
major averages are still tracking to end September higher.
The next potential catalyst awaiting
traders is the weekly jobless claims report, which is due Thursday. Economists
polled by Dow Jones anticipate 223,000 initial unemployment claims were filed
for the week ending Sept. 21. The final reading of second-quarter gross
domestic product is also out in the morning.
Several Federal Reserve officials are also
slated to speak on Thursday, including Chair Jerome Powell and New York Fed
President John Williams.
CarMax and Accenture are set to report
earnings before the opening bell, followed by Costco Wholesale in the
afternoon.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news, nothing good. With global central banksters only caring about pushing stocks higher for the 1 percenters, the other 99 percenters are getting increasingly uppity.
2 under-the-radar recession signals are flashing
red this month, research firm says
Thu, 26 Sept 2024, 12:26 am BST
Recent data shows easing inflation and a
steady decline in jobless claims in recent weeks, but the labor market and the
economy aren't out of the woods, BCA Research says.
The firm's chief global strategist, Peter
Berezin, pointed to two low-key labor market indicators flashing warning
signals this month.
The first, the number of people working
part time but would rather be working full time, has "started rising
meaningfully," Berezin said in a Monday note.
The number rose to 4.83 million in August,
an almost 6% increase from July and an almost 17% increase from the year prior,
according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released
earlier this month.
Historically, that number has always
increased in the early stages of a recession, Berezin says.
"Could this time be different? I am
open to the idea. But I think the onus is on the soft landers to show why. So
far, I have not seen any convincing evidence," he said.
Meanwhile, recent survey data shows a
narrowing gap in positive and negative labor market sentiment.
The labor differential, which measures
those who think jobs are plentiful versus those who think they are hard to get,
fell 3.3 points to 12.6 in September, according to data from the Conference Board released Tuesday.
That's "well below" pre-pandemic
numbers, and below the 2019 average of 33.2, Berezin said in a Tuesday note.
On average, the peak in the labor
differential comes nine months ahead of a recession, Berezin says. But this
time around, its flashing closer to a rapid slowdown as the labor market pivots
to showing weak labor demand via higher unemployment, rather than just slower
wage growth and lower job openings.
"I suspect that it has taken much
longer this time around because until recently, the economy was operating along
the steep side of the labor supply curve," Berezin said.
The recent warning signs come two months
after Berezin cautioned investors over a coming recession to hit the
US economy later this year or early next year.
More
2 under-the-radar recession signals are flashing red this month, research firm says (yahoo.com)
Manitoba grain producers bracing for impacts after
workers at Vancouver port terminals go on strike
25 September 2024
n industry group representing Manitoba's
farmers is worried Canada's position as a reliable grain supplier might be
tarnished after operations at one of the busiest ports for bulk grain export
came to a halt on Tuesday.
Workers at several Metro Vancouver grain
terminals walked off the job after members of the Grain Workers Union Local 333
couldn't come to an agreement on a new contract with their employer, the
Vancouver Terminal Elevators Association.
Workers went on strike on Tuesday, halting
operations at some of Canada's busiest terminals for bulk grain
exports.
Jill Verwey, president of Keystone
Agricultural Producers, a non-profit organization representing close to 4,600
Manitoba farmers, told CBC News Tuesday that the job action in Vancouver
couldn't have come at a worse time.
"A strike occurring right now during
our peak [harvest] season does cause widespread disruption for our grain
producers and for exporters serving international customers," she
said.
Uncertainty around the country's
reliability as a supplier has been growing, Verwey said, after lockouts at
Canada's two biggest railways earlier this summer.
"If our reputation continues to have
a negative impact because we can't get our grain to our customers, then those
customers are going to be looking elsewhere for grain," she said.
"That's the last thing that we
want."
Exports halted, bulk grain backlog
Barry Prentice, professor of supply chain
management at the University of Manitoba, said the strike came as shipments of
grain started coming in from farms on the Prairies, and with a limited
amount of bin space for storage, producers were depending on shipping to avoid
pileups.
With workers on the picket
lines, Verwey said, there won't be personnel at the terminals to load
the ships sitting off Vancouver's coast with bulk grain shipments, halting
exports including those coming from Manitoba.
Over the days, the excess amounts of grain
will fill the storage room at the port, creating a "significant
backlog" in the Prairies grain transport network and forcing some farmers
in Manitoba to fall back on their commitments with buyers.
"It's yet another example of how
fragile the system is … we rely 100 per cent on the terminals to get our grain
to our customers," Verwey said.
Prentice said the impacts of the strike
will be felt in the coming weeks, especially for those who are solely dependent
on Vancouver's port for exports.
"We would not be affected quite as
much," he said.
With grain terminals in Thunder Bay, Ont.,
still working around the clock, Prentice said gain producers in Manitoba might
find a bit of relief compared to shippers in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
"For farmers, the harvest is your
payday and a lot of farmers are depending on that to meet their
bills."
Verwey said any impact to grain exports
puts an additional strain on producers to pay off their input
costs, from seeding all the way through harvest.
"The last thing that we want to see
is farmers being forced to store on the ground," she said.
Keystone Agricultural Producers is hoping
a resolution at the bargaining table can bring the strike to an end,
reactivating the Vancouver terminal activity.
"But at the end of the day if there
isn't any [solution] then we of course look to our leadership federally to
ensure there is a quick resolution," Verwey said.
Another Car Company in Crisis: Immediately Lays
Off 1,600 Employees
24 September 2024
ust days after news broke that Volkswagen
is set to lay off 30,000 employees in Germany, another car company is about to
implement a massive round of layoffs.
Northvolt, which is trying to make a
living building batteries for electric vehicles, has made another tough
decision. Attracting new capital to the struggling company has proved more than
difficult. At the same time, costs have spiraled out of control, and production
at the Skellefteå factory is lagging.
As a consequence, Northvolt has announced
a comprehensive cost-saving plan that will result in the dismissal of 1,600
employees in Sweden. The company will lay off staff in Skellefteå, Västerås,
and Stockholm, where 1,000, 400, and 200 positions will be eliminated,
respectively. Furthermore, the expansion of the Skellefteå factory has been put
on hold.
According to Northvolt, the purpose of the
cost-cutting measure is to concentrate efforts on the production of battery
cells in Skellefteå. The company highlights that it has managed to triple
production at this facility, which had previously been a significant concern.
"Although the overall momentum for
electrification remains strong, we need to ensure that we make the right
decisions at the right times in response to the headwinds the automotive
industry is facing," says Peter Carlsson, CEO of Northvolt, in a press
release.
"We now need to focus all energy and
investments on our core business. Success in increasing production at Northvolt
Ett is crucial to delivering to our customers and enabling sustainable
business. The recent production records at Northvolt Ett show that we are on
the right track, but the decisions we make today, no matter how hard they are,
are necessary for Northvolt's future."
The consequences of the cost-cutting
measure are grim. Northvolt is now set to lay off one in four employees in
Sweden. The crisis in the company comes after, among other things, deaths at
the Skellefteå factory and the tearing up of a contract with BMW worth several
billion dollars.
Another Car Company in Crisis: Immediately Lays Off 1,600 Employees (msn.com)
Americans running out of unemployment benefits and
part-time jobs at record levels point to a recession coming, economist says
September 24, 2024
The veteran forecaster and QI Research
founder pointed to continued signs of weakness in the US job market, zooming in
on a few key areas that are flashing signs of trouble.
Booth said that more workers who once
qualified for unemployment insurance are now rolling off of their benefits.
Workers in most states have 26 weeks of paid unemployment benefits, but
according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 21% of workers are now taking more
than 27 weeks to find a new job, up 3% from last year.
The average unemployment duration in the
US climbed to 21 weeks in September, government data shows.
The second factor is the number of
part-time workers in the US, which has climbed to an all-time high and suggests
that the hiring picture isn't as strong as may appear. The number of employees
that usually
work part-time climbed to 28.2 million in August, the highest number since
the government began recording the data in the 1960s, BLS data shows.
"We're not seeing these people pour
into the unemployment claims pool," Booth said in a recent interview
with CNBC, attributing many
of the part-time jobs to the gig
economy,
as out-of-work
Americans may
turn to platforms like Uber or other services in order to keep money coming in.
"Much different economy than we saw
in 2007, 2008, because the gig economy has exploded in that period," she
added.
Weakness in the job market could later
translate into consumer weakness, one of the economy's chief concerns, Booth
predicted. Fed economists already have their eye on weaker consumer spending,
with consumption falling or remaining flat in most Fed Districts, according to
the central bank's latest Beige
Book.
Lower consumption already appears to be
having an effect on key industries. The manufacturing sector contracted for 21
out of the last 22 months, according to the Institute of Supply Management,
while inventory grew. The housing market, where activity has been suppressed
over the last two years, also saw existing home sales drop another 2.5% in
August, per the National Association of Realtors.
Investors could see more signs of economic
weakening with next quarter's GDP figures, Booth said, which are set to roll
out at the end of the week.
The economy is expected to have grown
nearly 3% last quarter, matching the pace in the second quarter of 2024,
according to the latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow reading. But
GDP figures could be later revised down, Booth noted, pointing to a recent
revision that showed the economy
added nearly a million fewer jobs than expected in the year leading up
to March 2024.
Booth has been warning of a recession for
months despite most of Wall Street warming up to the prospect of a soft
landing. Previously, she made the case that the US
economy was already in a recession despite continuing to grow in 2023
and 2024, pointing to continued weakness in the job market.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
US
fiscal profile set to weaken under next administration, Moody's says
September
24, 2024
NEW
YORK (Reuters) - U.S. fiscal health is expected to deteriorate further as
political polarization makes it hard for any new presidential administration to
negotiate steps needed to reduce the national debt burden, according to ratings
agency Moody's.
The
U.S. sovereign fiscal profile is likely to weaken under either of the
candidates in the Nov. 5 presidential election - Democrat Kamala Harris and
Republican Donald Trump, the agency said in a report issued on Tuesday.
"The
incoming administration will face a deteriorating U.S. fiscal outlook, as
declining debt affordability will gradually weaken U.S. fiscal strength,"
the report stated. "In the absence of policy measures that can curb these
trends and help limit fiscal deficits, deteriorating fiscal strength will
increasingly weigh on the U.S. sovereign credit profile."
Moody's
lowered the outlook on its triple-A U.S. credit rating to "negative"
from "stable" in November 2023.
That
came months after a rating downgrade of the sovereign credit profile by another
ratings agency, Fitch, following political brinkmanship around raising the U.S.
debt ceiling.
Moody's
remains the last of the three major rating agencies to maintain a top rating
for the U.S. government. Fitch changed its rating from triple-A to AA+ in
August 2023, joining S&P, which has had an AA+ rating since 2011.
Moody's
said it expects the U.S. government to run fiscal deficits of around 7% of
gross domestic product per year over the next five years, and that deficits
could rise to 9% by 2034, which would push the debt burden to 130% of GDP by
then from 97% last year.
"U.S.
fiscal strength will materially weaken in the absence of meaningful policy
steps to reduce the fiscal deficit, rein in new borrowing to fund those
deficits and slow the rise in interest expense that consumes an increasingly
large share of government revenues," the agency said.
"These
debt dynamics would be increasingly unsustainable and inconsistent with an Aaa
rating if no policy actions are taken to course correct," it added.
Fitch
said last month the U.S. fiscal profile is likely to remain largely unchanged
regardless of who wins in November.
More
US fiscal profile
set to weaken under next administration, Moody's says (yahoo.com)
UK
economy to grow twice as fast as expected says KPMG
Wednesday
25 September 2024 6:00 am
KPMG
has become the latest City
forecaster to
lift its projections for the UK economy despite uncertainty about the likely
strength of consumer spending.
The
firm’s latest forecasts suggest the economy is on track to grow 1.0 per cent
this year before accelerating slightly to 1.2 per cent next year.
The
Big Four firm’s predictions are a slight upgrade on July’s projections of 0.5
per cent for 2024 and 0.9 per cent for 2025, reflecting the UK’s stronger than
expected growth in the first half of this year.
However,
despite the stronger growth, KPMG does not expect to see a particularly strong
recovery in consumer spending. Instead it suggested that the recent increase in
the savings ratio could prove “more permanent”.
The household savings
ratio –
the proportion of disposable income which households save – stood at 11.1 per
cent in the first quarter of 2024, compared to an average of 6.3 per cent
during the 2010s.
The
savings ratio is particularly high given the relatively low rate of
unemployment. With savings predicted to remain elevated, KPMG forecast
consumer spending growth of just 0.4 per cent in 2024 and 1.4 per cent in 2025.
Chancellor
‘unlikely’ to stimulate faster growth
“Shifts
in consumers behaviour, elicited by response to the recent series of shocks as
well as by longer-term trends such as an ageing population…mean that businesses
will need to closely re-examine both their customer and production strategies.”
Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK said.
Selfin
also drew attention to the upcoming budget, scheduled for 30 October, which
represents the Chancellor’s first opportunity to start “building the base for
stronger growth”.
But
Selfin cautioned that the Chancellor will be unlikely to be able to stimulate
faster growth without adjusting the fiscal rules, which require debt to be
falling in five years time.
“[Growth]
will inevitably require higher levels of public investment. However, the
current fiscal framework will make it hard for the government to borrow
significantly more,” she said.
Tweaking the
fiscal rules to
exclude the impact of the Bank of England’s bond sales would only free up an
additional £16bn, Selfin estimated.
KPMG upgrades UK forecasts despite sluggish consumer spending (cityam.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
What
Repeat COVID Infections Do to Your Body, According to Science
SARS-CoV-2 behaves differently than a common cold or flu virus—and can do major long-term damage.
By Erica Sloan Medically reviewed by Payal K. Patel, MD September 23,
2024
These
days, it’s tempting to compare COVID-19 with the
common cold or flu. It can similarly leave you with a nasty cough, fever, sore
throat—the full works of respiratory symptoms. And it’s also become a part of
the societal fabric, perhaps something you’ve resigned yourself to catching at
least a few times in your life (even if you haven’t already). But let’s not
forget: SARS-CoV-2 (the virus responsible for COVID) is still relatively new,
and researchers are actively investigating the toll of reinfection on the body.
While there are still a lot of unknowns, one thing seems to be increasingly
true: Getting COVID again and again is a good deal riskier than repeat hits of
its seasonal counterparts.
It
turns out, SARS-CoV-2 is more nefarious than these other contagious bugs, and
our immune response to it, often larger and longer-lasting. COVID has a better
ability to camouflage itself in the body, “and it has the keys to the kingdom
in the sense that it can unlock any cell and get in,” says Esther Melamed,
PhD,
an assistant professor in the department of neurology at Dell Medical School,
University of Texas Austin, and the research director of the Post-COVID-19
program at UT Health Austin. That’s because SARS-CoV-2 binds to ACE2 receptors,
which exist in cells all over your body, from your heart to
your gut to your brain. (By contrast, cold and flu viruses replicate mostly in
your respiratory tract.)
It
only follows that a bigger threat can trigger an outsize immune response. In
some people, the body’s reaction to COVID can turn into a “cytokine storm,” Dr.
Melamed tells SELF, which is characterized by an excessive release of
inflammatory proteins that can wreak havoc on multiple organ systems—not a
common scenario for your garden-variety cold or flu. But even a “mild” case of
COVID can throw your immune system into a tizzy
as it works to quickly shore up your defenses. And each reinfection is a fresh
opportunity for the virus to win the battle.
You
might be thinking, “Aren’t I more protected against COVID and
less likely to have a serious case after having been infected?” Part of that is
true, to an extent. In the first couple years after COVID burst onto the scene,
reinfections were generally (though not always) milder than a person’s initial
bout of the virus. “The way we understand classic immunology is that your body
will say to a virus [it’s seen before], ‘Oh, I know how to deal with you, and
I’m now going to deal with you in a better way the second time around,’” says Ziyad Al-Aly, MD, a senior
clinical epidemiologist at Washington University in St. Louis School of
Medicine and the chief of research and development at the Veterans Affairs St.
Louis Health Care System.
But any encounter
with COVID can
also cause your immune system to “go awry or develop some form of dysfunction,”
Dr. Al-Aly tells SELF. Specifically, “immune imprinting” can happen, where,
upon a second (or third or fourth) exposure to the virus, your immune cells
launch the same response as they did for the initial infection, in turn
blocking or limiting the development of new antibodies
necessary to fight off the current variant that’s stirring up trouble. So,
“when you get hit an [additional] time, your immune system may not behave
classically,” Dr. Al-Aly says, and could struggle with mounting a good defense.
More
What Repeat COVID Infections Do to Your Body, According to Science | SELF
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Battery
discovery could ‘revolutionise’ electric cars, scientists say
Cathode
discovery could make EVs significantly cheaper than fossil fuel-powered cars
September
24, 2024
Scientists
have discovered a new battery material that could radically reduce the cost of
electric vehicles and supercharge the transition to clean energy
technologies.
A team
from Georgia Tech in the US made the breakthrough while researching the
cathodes for lithium-ion batteries, which are found in everything from laptops
to electric cars.
Described
as a “revolutionary material”, the iron chloride cathode that they developed
costs just 1-2 per cent of a typical cathode capable of storing a comparable
amount of electricity.
“For a
long time, people have been looking for a lower-cost, more sustainable
alternative to existing cathode materials. I think we’ve got one,” said Hailong
Chen, an associate professor at the School of Materials Science and Engineering
at Georgia Tech.
“Our
cathode can be a game-changer. It would greatly improve the EV market – and the
whole lithium-ion battery market.”
Batteries
are responsible for around 50 per cent of the cost of an electric vehicle, with
current technologies making them slightly more expensive than fossil
fuel-powered vehicles at today’s prices.
Worldwide
EV adoption has been largely driven by government subsidies, however many
schemes have already come to an end, making the vehicles less economically
viable.
The
new cathode material could make electric cars cheaper than their polluting
counterparts, while also offering a solution for larger-scale energy storage
needs.
“This
could not only make EVs much cheaper than internal combustion cars, but it
provides a new and promising form of large-scale energy storage, enhancing the
resilience of the electrical grid,” Professor Chen said.
“In
addition, our cathode would greatly improve the sustainability and supply chain
stability of the EV market.”
The
discovery was published in the journal Nature Sustainability this
week in a
study titled ‘Low-cost iron trichloride cathode for
all-solid-state lithium-ion batteries’.
Other
recent battery breakthroughs have seen scientists improve the range and
charging times of electric cars, both of which are frequently cited as barriers
to adoption.
More
Battery discovery
could ‘revolutionise’ electric cars, scientists say | The Independent
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Since
I've become a central banker, I've learned to mumble with great incoherence. If
I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said.
Alan
Greenspan.
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