Baltic
Dry Index. 2014 +15
Brent Crude 75.03
Spot Gold 2659 US 2 Year Yield 3.49 -0.08
In the long run, the gold price has to go up in relation to paper [fiat Ed.] money. There is no other way. To what price, that depends on the scale of the inflation [in fiat money. Ed.] - and we know that inflation will continue.
Nicholas Deak.
In the stock casinos, party time. With the US Fed and now China bringing out the punchbowl again, why not get drunk on front running the coming end of the month dress up stocks party.
But the US economy is taking a hit from the Boeing strike. Will take another hit in five days time with an east coast port strike. Will take a massive hit in 2025, when either presidential candidate wins and starts trying to implement their lunatic economic agendas.
Not that things are any better in Europe, still suffering from the massive flooding that hit much of central Europe and northern Italy. Heavy rain is continuing across Ireland, the UK and much of northern Europe, damaging harvests, autumn field work and winter planting.
In the UK, a harsh taxation budget is due on October 30th, right before Halloween.
In the USA, two economic cranks are running for President, and sadly for the US economy, one of them must win. Not for nothing is Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway lightening up on stocks.
And don’t mention either war.
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly rise as investors assess China stimulus measures
Published
Tue, Sep 24 2024 7:49 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets were mixed Wednesday, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index extending its
rally to rise 2.2% on the back of stimulus measures from China.
The
gains on the index were led by the energy and basic materials sectors, while
the Hang Seng Mainland Properties index also advanced, up 3.6%.
Chinese
markets rallied yesterday after the country’s central bank announced a slate of
economic support measures, with the HSI seeing its best day in seven months,
while mainland China’s CSI 300 recorded its largest
one-day gain in over four years.
On
Wednesday, the PBOC slashed the medium-term lending facility rate to 2%,
down from 2.3%. This is the second cut to the MLF in about three months, after
the central bank cut rates from 2.5% to 2.3% in late July.
The
offshore yuan also briefly strengthened to 6.995 against the U.S. dollar,
breaking the 7.00 level for the first time since May 2023.
Investors
are assessing Australia’s inflation numbers on Wednesday, with the consumer
price index posting a 2.7% rise year on year in August, in line with expectations
from economists polled by Reuters and easing from the 3.5% rise in July.
Mainland
China’s CSI 300 rose 1.73%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed
marginally, rebounding from two straight days of losses.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.32%, and
the broad-based Topix reversed earlier losses and was up 0.11%.
South
Korea’s Kospi was up 0.4%, while the small-cap Kosdaq rose 0.43%. South Korea
on Wednesday announced its “Korea Value Up Index,” with trading set
to start Monday.
The
index will comprise 100 companies, with IT and industrial stocks making up more
than 40% of the index.
Overnight
in the U.S. The S&P 500 rose
to a fresh record on Tuesday, gaining 0.25% to 5,732.93, while the
blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial
Average added 0.2%, also closing at a new record of 42,208.22.
The Nasdaq Composite added
0.56%, powered by shares of chipmaker Nvidia.
Shares
of artificial intelligence darling Nvidia
climbed nearly 4% after a regulatory filing showed that CEO Jensen
Huang wrapped up his sales of the chipmaker’s stock for the time being.
Asia stock markets: Hong Kong rally, Australia CPI; PBOC cuts MLF (cnbc.com)
Stock
futures are little changed after Dow, S&P 500 hit record highs: Live
updates
Updated
Wed, Sep 25 2024 7:57 PM EDT
Stock
futures were calm on Tuesday evening as Wall Street looks to extend its
September gains.
S&P 500 futures were
little changed. Nasdaq 100
futures ticked up less than 0.1%, and futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped
0.1%.
The
moves come after the S&P
500 and Dow closed
at record highs after gaining 0.25% and 0.20%, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite gained
0.56% and is less than 4% from its record high.
All
three averages are on track for a positive September, though fears of a slowing
economy still linger after last week’s rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Now
that the central bank has begun to lower interest rates, the economy is
becoming a bigger focus for investors.
“I’m
a buyer of this rally until unemployment claims start rising, until earnings
start declining, really until growth’s a problem. And I think we’re going to
see a really volatile market between those growth and slowdown narratives until
that time,” Lauren Goodwin, chief market strategist at New York Life
Investments, said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.”
Upcoming
economic data includes new home sales for August, due out on Wednesday morning,
and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.
Investors
will also be paying close attention to commentary from companies, especially as
earnings season ramps up early next month.
“We’re
just starting to head into … the Q3 earnings season, and I think that will be
as important if not more to what happens to stocks going forward as what
happens with the Fed and with interest rates,” Certuity chief investment
officer Scott Welch told CNBC.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
CNBC
Daily Open: It might be better economic data isn’t all rosy
Published
Tue, Sep 24 2024 8:46 PM EDT
What
you need to know today
New
highs, once again
U.S. stocks continued
rising on Tuesday, with the S&P
500 and Dow Jones
Industrial Average closing at new highs for the second consecutive
day. Europe’s regional Stoxx
600 index rose 0.65%. Stocks linked to the Chinese market and consumers
rose the most, buoyed by the China’s announcement of new
stimulus measures.
Consumer’s
not confident
The Conference Board’s consumer
confidence index fell to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August.
September’s figure comes in lower than the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 104
and is the biggest month-on-month drop in three years. Respondents saying jobs
were “hard to get” rose to 18.3% from 16.8%.
Wall
Street’s diverging views
Goldman Sachs Chief Financial
Officer Denis Coleman told CNBC the U.S. Federal Reserve can “sort of maintain
a soft-landing trajectory” because “inflation levels are coming down,
unemployment is manageable.” But Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said in a
CNBCTV18 interview that, on the topic of a soft landing, he veers “on
the cautious side.”
How
much will oil demand grow?
Oil demand will experience “robust
medium-term growth,” reaching 112.3
million barrels per day in 2029 from 102.2 million barrels per day in
2023, according to OPEC’s 2024 World Oil Outlook report. Not all analysts agree
with that forecast. The International Energy Agency thinks oil demand
will level off at 106 million barrels per day by the end of
the decade.
[PRO]
Two different stories
Depending on whom you ask, the economy is either robust or on the verge of
weakening. Stocks, having just hit new highs on Tuesday, signal a thriving
economy revving into high gear on the back of the Fed rate cut. On the other
hand, the bond
market is telling a different story.
The
bottom line
We
received slightly troubling news about the U.S. consumer yesterday.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to
98.7 from 105.6, its biggest drop since August 2021 when inflation was starting
to ignite.
Consumers,
especially those between 35-54 and earning less than $50,000, were worried
about jobs and inflation. Compared with August, more respondents in September
said jobs were “hard to get” and scarcer. Inflation worries also resurfaced,
with the 12-month outlook rising to 5.2%, up from 4.9% in August.
JPMorgan
CEO Jamie Dimon, in an interview with CNBCTV-18, also expressed doubts on the
state of the economy. “Markets are pricing things like they’re going to be
great. Put me on the cautious side of that one,” he said.
While
inflation appears to be mostly tamed, at least by the measure of most Fed
officials, Dimon thinks the economy might be dragged down because “geopolitics
is getting worse … there is chance for accidents in energy supply.”
More
CNBC Daily Open: It might be better economic data isn’t all rosy
In other news, poor America! Sadly, one of the USA’s two presidential candidates has to win in November.
Yellen
Warns That ‘Veering Off Course’ Could Harm ‘Economic Trajectory’
The
treasury secretary was referring to the scrapping of certain federal government
policies.
9/23/2024
Updated: 9/23/2024
U.S.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that a significant change in current
economic policies could damage the American economy.
Writing
for The Wall Street Journal in a Sept. 22 article, Yellen said that “veering off course could jeopardize our economic
trajectory.”
Yellen
said tax cuts for higher earners “would explode the federal deficit,” repealing
investments in “the industries of the future would stunt growth,” and “pursuing
nontargeted, nonstrategic international economic policies would raise costs for
Americans and cause global turmoil.”
She
also touted the federal government’s investments in green energy, calling them
“cutting-edge industries,” and praised the vaccination programs launched during
the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We
then navigated additional crises, including the energy shock from Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine,” the U.S. Treasury secretary said. “And we made critical
investments in infrastructure and manufacturing—from clean energy to
semiconductors—including in training Americans for jobs in these cutting-edge
industries.”
Yellen
said these actions helped “reverse the pandemic’s shock to our ability to
produce goods and services” and “boosted the economy’s long-run potential
output.”
Earlier
this month, former President Donald Trump said during an appearance at the
Economic Club of New York that he would lead what he described as a “national
economic renaissance” by slashing government regulations, increasing tariffs,
and cutting government spending as well as corporate taxes if he were to be
elected as president in November.
More
Yellen Warns That ‘Veering Off Course’ Could Harm ‘Economic Trajectory’ | The Epoch Times
Trump threatens John Deere with 200% tariffs if production moves to Mexico
24
September 2024
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) -Donald Trump said on Monday he would slap a 200% tariff on John
Deere's imports into the United States if the company moved production to
Mexico as planned, comments that hit the agricultural equipment manufacturer's
share price.
Earlier
this year, John Deere announced that it was laying off hundreds of employees in
the Midwest and increasing its production capacity in Mexico, a decision that
upset workers and some political leaders.
"As
you know, they've announced a few days ago that they are going to move a lot of
their manufacturing business to Mexico," Trump said at an event held in
western Pennsylvania. "I am just notifying John Deere right now that if
you do that, we are putting a 200% tariff on everything that you want to sell
into the United States."
The
Republican presidential candidate has frequently said he would slap automakers
that move their production to Mexico with a 200% tariff, but this appears to be
the first time he has extended that threat to an agricultural equipment
company.
Shares
in John Deere fell more than 1.5% in after-hours trade on Monday after closing
up 0.75%. A representative for the company did not respond to a request for
comment.
Trump
has made erecting extensive tariffs the central element of his economic plan
should he beat Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, in the
Nov. 5 election. The strategy is designed to protect American jobs from foreign
competition, but economists warn his measures will boost inflation.
Speaking
to a gathering of farmers in a rural area outside of Pittsburgh, Trump also
said he would press Chinese President Xi Jinping to honor a deal to purchase
$50 billion of U.S. agricultural goods.
During
the so-called "Phase 1" trade deal inked between China and the United
States during Trump's 2017 to 2021 term, the U.S. agreed to cut some tariffs on
Chinese goods in exchange for pledges to purchase more American agricultural
products, energy and manufactured goods. At the time, Trump said China would
buy $50 billion in U.S. agricultural products, though Chinese purchases fell
well short of that figure.
"Probably
my first call - I'm going to call President Xi - I'm going to say you have to
honor the deal you made. We made the deal, you buy $50 billion worth of
American farm products, and I guarantee you, he will buy it, 100% he will buy
it," Trump said.
Farmers
and industrial workers are a crucial part of Trump's coalition, and turning out
these constituencies will be important if he is to beat Harris. That is
especially true in Pennsylvania, where polls consistently show a razor-thin
race.
Trump threatens John Deere with 200% tariffs if production moves to Mexico (msn.com)
Trump,
Harris to Turbocharge Economic Pitches at Dueling Events
Alicia
Diaz, Jennifer Epstein and Josh Wingrove
Mon
23 September 2024 at 12:36 am BST
(Bloomberg)
-- The battle between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump over the economy is set to
intensify, with the rival presidential candidates planning dueling addresses
this week on one of the campaign’s defining issues.
Harris
told reporters Sunday she will deliver a speech “to outline my vision for the
economy.” Trump, meanwhile, is set to offer remarks Tuesday in swing-state
Georgia on a plan to lower taxes for US business owners.
The
events show how the economy has become an election focal point with Harris and
Trump offering a slew of competing proposals to push tax breaks, credits and
other programs to address voter anxiety over high prices, jobs and wages. With
the candidates embarking on a six-week sprint to Election Day, each is angling
for any advantage they can find.
Americans’
angst over the economy has been a political liability for Harris – and
President Joe Biden – that’s souring voter perceptions of their
administration’s record. And it’s been a boost for Trump and his unprecedented
campaign as the first former US president convicted of a felony.
The
Republican presidential nominee has promised to slash regulations and renew
expiring tax cuts — policies that have helped him rebuild support among many
Wall Street executives and corporate leaders who shunned him after the 2020
election.
In
recent days, Harris and Trump have both also sought momentum from the Federal
Reserve’s decision to lower its benchmark interest rate by a half percentage
point.
Harris
hailed it as a sign of progress in the fight against inflation and a
vindication of Biden administration’s policies, while saying more needs to be
done. Trump lambasted the cut as a “political” decision to protect Harris and
said the move suggests the US economy is in poor shape.
Harris
has also sought to bolster her standing with business, saying she would help
grow emerging sectors. At a Manhattan fundraiser on Sunday she told donors she
would support investments in digital assets and artificial intelligence. Trump,
a onetime skeptic of cryptocurrencies, has courted the industry strongly this
cycle.
A
Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll from August showed voters less likely to
hold Harris responsible for the economic anxiety that undercut Biden even as
they said they were better off under Trump.
----Harris
said Sunday that her speech will explain how she intends to “do more to invest
in the aspirations and ambitions of the American people while addressing the
challenges they face, whether it be the high price of groceries or being able
to acquire homeownership.”
Plans
for Harris’ address this week aren’t finalized yet, a person familiar with the
Democratic presidential nominee’s plans said Sunday.
The
address will be more sweeping in tone rather than focused on any proposal or
set of policy items, according to the person, who cast it as an opportunity to
communicate with voters who say they still don’t know enough about Harris or
her policies.
Reuters
reported earlier that Harris plans to present economic policy proposals this
week, including ways to promote wealth creation for Americans.
Harris
has unveiled initiatives to help curb costs for households, offer assistance
for first-time homebuyers, expand a tax break for small business startups as
well as proposing to eliminate taxes on tips for service industry and
hospitality industry workers – a campaign pledge embraced first by Trump.
The
vice president has said she will pay for those policies in part by seeking a
28% capital gains tax rate on people earning $1 million or more and by raising
the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%.
More
Trump, Harris to Turbocharge Economic Pitches at Dueling Events (yahoo.com)
The trouble with our Liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so.
Ronald Reagan.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Fall
in business morale adds to German recession fears
24
September 2024
BERLIN
(Reuters) -German business morale fell for a fourth straight month in September
and by more than expected, a survey showed on Tuesday, adding to signs that the
euro zone's biggest economy may have tipped into recession.
Data
earlier this week showed German business activity contracted in September at
the sharpest pace in seven months, putting the economy on track to notch a
second consecutive quarter of falling output.
The
Ifo institute said its business climate index decreased to 85.4 in September
from 86.6 in August.
Analysts
polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 86.0.
"The
German economy is coming under increasing pressure," said Ifo president
Clemens Fuest.
The
survey of around 9,000 company managers found most assessed the current
situation as having deteriorated.
The
current conditions index fell to 84.4 in September from 86.4 in August.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 86.0.
'DOWNWARD
SPIRAL'
The
outlook for the coming months also deteriorated further, with the index falling
to 86.3 in September from 86.8 in August.
"The
German economy is on the edge of a downward spiral," Ifo economist Klaus
Wohlrabe told Reuters.
He
said Germany's economy, which contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, may
well shrink further in the third quarter. A recession is normally defined as
two consecutive quarters of contraction.
The
business climate index declined in all sectors with the exception of
construction. In manufacturing, the index fell to its lowest level since June
2020.
"Another
day, another downside surprise in the German economic surveys," said Claus
Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
A
purchasing managers' survey on Monday showed German business activity
contracted more steeply than expected in September as the downturn in
manufacturing started to spill over into the broader economy.
More
Fall in business
morale adds to German recession fears (msn.com)
French budget deficit one of worst in history, new finance minister says
24
September 2024
ARIS
(Reuters) - France's financial situation is concerning with the budget deficit
at one of its highest levels in history, newly appointed finance minister
Antoine Armand said on Tuesday.
"The
situation is serious ... We are going to work hard to match the seriousness of
this situation," Armand told France Inter radio.
Unknown
outside of Parisian political circles, the 33-year-old faces huge pressure to
figure out how to rein in France's budget deficit as it spirals towards 6% of
GDP.
In
a further sign of investor jitters about France, the country's 10-year bond
yield was just 1-1/2 basis points away from surpassing that of Spain for the
first time since late 2007 on Monday.
French budget deficit one of worst in history, new finance minister says (msn.com)
Sterling
soars to €1.20 for the first time in more than two years as latest figures show
Germany on course for a recession
By John-Paul Ford Rojas Updated: 22:00, 23 September 2024
The
pound hit €1.20 against the euro last night for the first time in more than two
years as figures suggested Germany was on course for a recession.
Sterling
was up by nearly a cent against the single currency at levels not seen since
April 2022 – as monthly business survey data showed a stark contrast between
the UK and eurozone.
In
a buoyant session for the pound, it was also ahead against the dollar at
$1.3359, a two-and-a-half year high. Experts at Goldman Sachs predict it will
hit $1.40 within 12 months.
In
a note to clients yesterday, experts at Deutsche Bank – Germany’s biggest
lender – said there was still ‘scope for sterling to appreciate’.
They
suggested that over the past two years, Britain has had ‘the best data in the
world’ with the economy consistently outperforming expectations – and the Bank
of England more cautious than other central banks about cutting interest rates.
‘This
has made for a sweet spot for the currency that we see continuing through to
year end and over risk events such as the autumn Budget,’ Deutsche’s experts
said.
The
euro’s weakness yesterday came after purchasing managers’ index (PMI) figures
showed a deepening downturn in Germany, the continent’s biggest economy, with
jobs being cut at the fastest rate since the pandemic.
It
was the latest blow to the beleaguered eurozone. In the UK, growth – though
lower than expected – still easily outpaced its European rivals.
In
Germany, September’s PMI – a monthly reading of private sector activity – sank
to 47.2, a seven-month low.
Any
reading below 50 signals business activity shrinking.
The
report suggested that the economy shrank by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter,
following a contraction of 0.1 per cent in the previous period.
If
confirmed by official figures, that would meet the technical definition of
recession.
Once
the continent’s industrial powerhouse, Germany has become widely derided as the
‘sick man of Europe’. Much of its decline is down to the shrivelling stature of
its huge car industry, which is grappling with the disruptive switch from
petrol and diesel towards electric vehicles.
China
also plays a role with its demand for German cars deteriorating. At the same
time, it ships cheap cars to Europe, hurting Germany’s car makers. Volkswagen,
Europe’s biggest car maker, is considering factory closures in the country for
the first time in its 87-year history and could reportedly cut up to 30,000
jobs.
Cyrus
de la Rubia, chief economist at commercial bank HCOB, said: ‘The downturn in
the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early
recovery.
‘In
a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the
Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. A technical recession seems to be baked in.’
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Is
the hybrid COVID variant XEC in the US? What to know about the new strain
that's more contagious
September 23, 2024
The
side effects of newly discovered COVID-19
strain XEC might
not be as severe, but is part of the more contagious variant class, experts
say.
The Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention (CDC) defines XEC as recombinant or hybrid of
the strains KS.1.1 and KP.3.3., both from the Omicron family that became the
predominant strain in the U.S. late December 2022.
The
variant, which first appeared in Berlin in late June, has increasingly seen
hundreds of cases in Germany,
France, Denmark and Netherlands, according to a report by Australia-based
data integration specialist Mike Honey.
XEC
has also been reported in at least 25 U.S. states though there could be more as
genetic testing is not done on every positive test, RTI International
epidemiologist Joëlla W. Adams said.
"We
often use what happens in Europe as a good indication of what might happen
here," Adams told USA TODAY Friday. "Whenever we're entering into a
season where we have multiple viruses occurring at the same time, like we're
entering into flu season, that obviously complicates things."
What
is the XEC variant?
New COVID
strain XEC is
a recombinant strain of two variants in the Omicron family: KS.1.1 and KP.3.3.
The
hybrid strain was first reported in Berlin late June but has spread across
Europe, North America and Asia with the countries Germany, France, the
Netherlands and Denmark leading cases.
Is
the XEC variant more contagious?
While
there's no indication the XEC strain will increase the severity of virus, it
could potentially become a dominant strain as Omicron variants are more
contagious. However, current available COVID-19 vaccines and booster shots are
particularly protective against XEC as it is a hybrid of two Omicron strains.
"These
strains do have the advantage in the fact that they are more transmissible
compared to other families, and so the vaccines that are currently being
offered were not based off of the XEC variant, but they are related,"
Adams said.
Like
other respiratory infections, COVID-19 and its recent Omicron variants will
increasingly spread during the fall and winter seasons as students return to
classes, kids spend more time inside and people visit family for the holidays,
according to Adams.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene at
20: Still no sign of the promised space elevator, but the material is quietly
changing the world
23
September 2024
Twenty
years ago this October, two physicists at the University of Manchester, Andre
Geim and Konstantin Novoselov, published a groundbreaking
paper on the "electric field effect in atomically thin carbon
films." Their work described the extraordinary electronic properties of
graphene, a crystalline form of carbon equivalent to a single layer of
graphite, just one atom thick.
round
that time, I started my doctorate at the University of Surrey. Our team
specialized in the electronic properties of carbon. Carbon nanotubes were the
latest craze, which I was happily following. One day, my professor encouraged a
group of us to travel to London to attend a talk by a well-known science
communicator from the University of Manchester. This was Andre Geim.
We
were not disappointed. He was inspiring for us fresh-faced Ph.D. students,
incorporating talk of wacky Friday afternoon experiments with levitating frogs,
before getting on to atomically thin carbon. All the same, we were skeptical
about this carbon concept. We couldn't quite believe that a material
effectively obtained from pencil lead with sticky tape was really what it
claimed to be. But we were wrong.
The
work was quickly copied and reproduced by scientists across the globe. New
methods for making this material were devised. Incredible claims about its
properties made it sound like something out of a Stan Lee comic. Stronger than
steel, highly flexible, super-slippery and impermeable to gases. A better
electronic conductor than copper and a better thermal conductor than diamond,
as well as practically invisible and displaying a host of exotic quantum
properties.
Graphene
was hailed as a revolutionary material, promising ultra-fast
electronics, supercomputers and super-strong
materials. More fantastical claims have included space elevators, solar
sails, artificial
retinas, even invisibility
cloaks.
Just
six years after their initial work, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel
Prize in Physics, further fueling the enthusiasm around
this wonder stuff. Since then, hundreds of thousands of academic papers have
been published on graphene and related materials.
But
not everyone is on board. Skim through the comments section of any popular
article on the material, and you'll quickly find the skeptics. We have endured
decades of empty promises about the real-world impact of graphene, they
complain. Where are the game-changing products to enrich our lives or save the
world from climate change, they ask.
So has
graphene been a resounding success or a damp squib? As is so often the case,
the reality is somewhere in between.
More
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The
most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and
I'm here to help.
Ronald Reagan.
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