Baltic
Dry Index. 1941 -17 Brent Crude 69.56
Spot Gold 2521 US 2 Year Yield 3.59 -0.09
I don't make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.
Will Rogers.
With the USA Great Debate joke over, the stock casinos are back to fretting over today’s Consumer Price Index inflation number and tomorrow’s Producer Price Index number.
I think the stock casinos should be more focusing on China’s growing deflation problem and how soon China will be exporting deflation out into the rest of the world.
Crude oil, and the much watched US treasury 2 year-10 year yield spread continue to signal recession. The 3 year to 30 year yield curve has now un-inverted and normalised.
As for that Great US Presidential debate, according to the BBC spin for Harris, as comedy and spin went, they huffed and they puffed, but didn’t blow any houses down.
But with a new category one hurricane headed for Louisiana landfall later today, nature might do what Harris and Trump failed to achieve.
Asia-Pacific markets slip as investors assess
South Korea unemployment data, U.S. presidential debate
Published Tue, Sep 10 2024 8:06 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were lower on
Wednesday, even as key Wall Street benchmarks rose ahead of the U.S. August
consumer inflation report due Wednesday.
Traders in Asia parsed economic data from
Japan and South Korea. South Korea reported that unemployment fell to 2.4% in
August, the lowest level since 1999, when the data series commenced, according
to Statistics Korea.
The Reuters Tankan survey, a monthly poll
that tracks business sentiment in Japan, showed that business confidence in big
manufacturers dipped to plus 4 in September, a seven-month low, from plus 10 in
August. The sentiment for non-manufacturers declined for a third consecutive
month to plus 23, from plus 24.
Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa said Wednesday the central bank would
continue to raise interest rates if the economy and inflation move in line with
the bank’s forecasts.
“When considering adjusting the degree of
monetary easing further, we must look back upon market developments after our
policy shift in July, and carefully assess how the market’s changes affect our
economy and price outlook,” she said.
The Japanese yen strengthened to its
highest level since January against the U.S. dollar to trade at 141.68.
Investors also assessed the U.S.
presidential debate between Republican presidential nominee Donald
Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. The two
presidential candidates have yet to agree on a second debate, meaning the event
might have been their only face-off before Election Day.
The Asian markets are “reflecting reduced
concerns over potential tariffs or sanctions on China,” Billy Leung, an
investment strategist at Global X ETFs told CNBC, “the debate seems to be
easing worries about significant policy changes in these areas.”
Separately, the Federal Trade Commission
has warned Japanese retail company Seven & i that it
may probe its potential deal with Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard, Reuters reported, citing two sources.
Seven & i recently rejected Couch-Tard’s
proposal, partially over U.S. antitrust concerns. The company’s shares fell
nearly 2% Wednesday morning.
Chipmaking powerhouse Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Corp announced its August revenue of 250.87 billion New Taiwan Dollars
($7.8 billion), increasing 33% year-on-year while dropping 2.4% from July.
The company’s shares declined marginally
after the monthly revenue release.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was 0.72% down
and the broad-based Topix was 0.84% lower, extending a six-day losing streak.
South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.2%, while
the small-cap Kosdaq rose 1.61%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dipped
0.24%.
Hong Kong Hang Seng index declined 1.2%
and the mainland China’s CSI 300 was down marginally.
Traders in Asia could be “positioning
ahead of potential U.S. dollar’s volatility,” Leung said, “markets are still
processing the broader uncertainty, especially with funding stress already
impacting Japan and South Korea.”
Overnight in the U.S., stocks wavered
through Tuesday’s trading session, with two of the three major U.S. indexes
ending in the green, as traders are betting that a widely anticipated interest
rate cut at the Federal Reserve September meeting would assuage concerns over a
weakening economy.
The broad-based S&P 500 advanced 0.45%
and the Nasdaq Composite climbed
0.84%, while the Dow Jones
Industrial Average dipped 0.23%.
Asia markets: U.S. presidential debate, South Korea unemployment (cnbc.com)
European stocks set for mixed open as markets
await U.S. inflation data
Published Wed, Sep 11 20241 2:18 AM EDT
LONDON — European stocks are expected to
open in mixed territory on Wednesday as global markets focus on the latest U.S.
inflation data set to be released later in the day.
The U.K.’s FTSE index is seen opening 4
points higher at 8,208, Germany’s DAX up 25 points at 18,304,
France’s CAC 40 flat
at 7,404 and Italy’s FTSE
MIB up 66 points at 33,259, according to data from IG.
Traders have their eyes on two key
economic reports out of the U.S. this week, with the consumer price index
report for August due Wednesday, followed by the producer price index on
Thursday.
The data comes before a widely anticipated
interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17-18 meeting that could help
assuage concerns over a
weakening U.S. economy.
Asia-Pacific markets traded
lower overnight even as key Wall Street benchmarks rose ahead of the U.S.
consumer inflation report.
U.S.
stock futures slipped Tuesday evening as investors awaited the
inflation report and assessed the presidential debate between Republican
presidential nominee Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
In Europe Wednesday, earnings come from
fashion group Inditex and monthly U.K. gross domestic product data will be
published.
Europe markets: stocks, news, U.S. inflation data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Stock futures fall as traders assess presidential
debate and brace for August consumer inflation report: Live updates
Updated Wed, Sep 11 2024 12:44 AM EDT
U.S. stock futures slipped Tuesday night
as investors assessed the presidential debate between Republican presidential
nominee Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris and looked toward the
August consumer inflation report due Wednesday morning.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell
172 points, or 0.42%. S&P
500 futures and Nasdaq
100 futures both dipped 0.52% and 0.68% respectively.
In after-hours action, shares of GameStop dropped 10%. The
video game retailer amended an open market sale agreement filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, allowing it to
sell up to 20 million additional shares of its Class A common stock.
During Tuesday’s regular trading,
the S&P 500 advanced
nearly 0.5% and the Nasdaq
Composite climbed 0.8%, aided by a jump in Nvidia shares. It marked a
back-to-back gain for the broad market benchmark and the tech-heavy index. The
30-stock Dow was the
outlier, falling 0.2% as a decline in JPMorgan shares weighed on the blue-chip
index.
Traders are anticipating a key economic
report Wednesday morning: August’s consumer price index. Economists polled by
Dow Jones expect the headline CPI to have risen 0.2% from the previous month
and 2.6% from a year earlier.
The CPI report and Thursday’s producer
price index could help
determine the size of a widely expected rate cut at the end of the
Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting on Sept. 18. Fed funds futures trading
suggests a 69% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut and a 31% likelihood of a
50-basis-point reduction, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
“I think what we’re going to see next week
is a Fed that gives us a 25-basis-point rate cut because to give us a
50-basis-point cut will set off alarm bells and would also be an admission of
guilt,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, on
CNBC’s “Closing Bell.”
“I don’t think that the Fed keeping us at
very restrictive monetary policy levels for a long time creates damage that is
irreparable, but I do believe every day that we have rates at these levels the
odds of a recession increase,” Hooper added.
She noted that central bankers may have to
indicate next week through their dot plot — a chart of Fed policymakers’
projections for rates — that future reductions are on deck sooner rather than
later.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Two key inflation reports this week will help
decide the size of the Fed’s interest rate cut
Published Tue, Sep 10 2024 1:19 PM EDT
The Federal Reserve gets its last look
this week at inflation readings before it will determine the size of a widely
expected interest rate cut soon.
On Wednesday, the Labor Department’s
Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its consumer price index report for
August. A day later, the BLS issues its producer price index report, also for
August, a measure used as a proxy for costs at the wholesale level.
With the
issue virtually settled over whether the Fed is going to cut rates
when it wraps up the next policy meeting Sept. 18, the only question is by how
much. Friday’s jobs report provided
little clarity on the issue, so it will be left to the CPI and PPI readings
hopefully to clear things up.
“Inflation data has taken a backseat to
labor market data in terms of influence on Fed policy,” Citigroup economist
Veronica Clark said in a note. “But with markets — and likely Fed officials
themselves – split on the appropriate size of the first rate cut on September
18, August CPI data could remain an important factor in the upcoming decision.”
The Dow Jones consensus forecast is for a
0.2% increase in the CPI, both for the all-items measure and the core that
excludes volatile food and energy items. On an annual basis, that is expected
to translate into respective inflation rates of 2.6% and 3.2%. PPI also is
projected to increase 0.2% on both headline and core. Fed officials generally
put more emphasis on core as a better indicator of longer-run trends.
At least for CPI, the readings are not
particularly close to the Fed 2% long-run target. But there are a few important
caveats to remember.
First, while the Fed pays attention to the
CPI, it is not its principal yardstick for inflation. That would be the
Commerce Department’s personal
consumption expenditures price index, which most recently pegged headline
inflation at 2.5% in July.
Second, policymakers are as concerned
about the direction of movement almost as much as the absolute value, and the
trend for the past several months has been a decided moderation in inflation.
On headline prices in particular, the August 12-month CPI forecast would
represent a 0.3 percentage point decline from July.
Finally, the focus
for Fed officials has shifted, from a laser view on taming inflation to
mushrooming fears over the state of the labor market. Hiring has slowed
considerably since April, with the average monthly gain in nonfarm payrolls
down to 135,000 from 255,000 in the prior five months, and job openings have
declined.
More
Week's
two key inflation reports to help decide size of Fed's rate cut (cnbc.com)
If
Stupidity got us into this mess, then why can't it get us out?
Will Rogers.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
German
chemicals sector recovery loses momentum in Q2, says industry group
10
September 2024
(Reuters)
- A slight recovery in the German chemicals sector lost momentum in the second
quarter, a report by the VCI industry body said on Tuesday, as both domestic
and foreign orders slowed in the April-June period, especially in the
pharmaceutical branch.
"The
global economy has not picked up speed as hoped," VCI's Managing Director
Wolfgang Grosse Entrup said in a press release, adding that Germany's
structural problems, such as high production costs, red tape and labour
shortages, remain unresolved.
Overall
production in the chemicals sector including pharmaceuticals added only 0.8%
quarter-on-quarter, slowing down drastically from the January-March quarterly
increase of 5%.
Germany's
chemicals industry suffered heavily throughout 2023 due to high production
costs and weak demand amidst high inflation. Europe's largest chemicals
producer started showing the first signs of recovery in the first quarter of
this year, which are now fading away.
Pharmaceutical
output fell by 4% compared with the previous quarter.
On
the annual comparison, overall production was up 3.7%, or 8.4% when
pharmaceuticals were excluded, but revenue fell by 0.6% compared with the same
period last year.
Still,
the industry maintained its annual guidance for production volumes including
pharmaceuticals to grow by 3.5% and industrial sales by 1.5%.
German chemicals
sector recovery loses momentum in Q2, says industry group (msn.com)
Mario
Draghi warns EU at risk without €800bn a year investment boost; Germany ‘facing
three-quarters-long recession’– as it happened
9
September 2024
For
the first time since the cold war we must genuinely fear for our
self-preservation,’ warns former ECB chief as he presents new report on
European competitiveness.
Closing
post
16:00
Time
for a recap:
The
EU should fear for its self-preservation as it faces a “slow and agonising
decline”, according to a hard-hitting report by the former Italian prime
minister Mario Draghi that calls
for an €800bn-a-year spending boost to end years of stagnation.
Warning
that the Covid pandemic and Ukraine war had changed the rules of international
trade to the EU’s detriment, he said the bloc needed additional investment of
€750bn-€800bn a year – equivalent to 5% of the EU’s annual economic output – to
build a more resilient economy and regain previously high rates of productivity
growth.
“We
are already in crisis mode and to ignore this is to slide into a situation you
don’t want to have,” said Draghi, who is also a
former head of the European Central Bank.
In
a wide-ranging report, Draghi said Europe
should start regularly issuing “common safe assets” to fund
joint investment projects among Member States, co-ordinate better on defence
spending, and improve its
access to raw materials.
And
in a stark warning, he said:
“We
have to understand we are becoming ever smaller relative to the challenges we
face. For the first time since the cold war we must genuinely fear for our
self-preservation.”
Related: EU
‘needs €800bn-a-year spending boost to avert agonising decline’
In
a gloomy day for European economic news:
·
Swedish
manufacturer Northvolt is to cut a large number of jobs and
sell or seek partners for its energy storage and materials businesses.
·
Germany has entered a three-quarter-long
recession, according to investment bank Nomura
More
UK
grocery inflation returns to downward trend, says Kantar
10
September 2024
ONDON
(Reuters) - UK grocery inflation edged lower this month, data from market
researcher Kantar showed on Tuesday, after rising for the first time in 18
months in last month's report.
It
said annual grocery price inflation was 1.7% in the four weeks to Sept 1,
versus 1.8% in the previous four-week period.
Despite
the fall, nearly 60% of UK households remained worried about the rising
cost of their shopping, Kantar said.
"This
is their second biggest financial worry, only behind home energy bills,"
Fraser McKevitt, the researcher's head of retail and consumer insight, said.
The
data showed prices were rising fastest in markets such as vitamin and mineral
supplements, chilled fruit juices and chocolate confectionery and were falling
fastest in toilet tissue, dog food and bottled cola drinks.
Kantar's
data, the most up-to-date snapshot of UK consumer behaviour published since the
July 4 national election, showed grocery sales rose 3.0% in value terms over
the four week period year-on-year, a slight slowdown from growth of 3.8% in
last month's report.
Over
the 12 weeks to Sept. 1 online supermarket Ocado was again the fastest growing
grocer with sales up 12.9% year-on-year, its best rate of growth since May
2021, Kantar said.
Market
leader Tesco saw growth of 5.3%, while sales at No. 2 Sainsbury's rose 5.7%.
No.
3 Asda was again the laggard, with sales down 5.6% and it lost 1.2 percentage
points of market share year-on-year.
Discounters
Aldi and Lidl saw sales growth of 1.3% and 9.1% respectively.
Aldi
said on Monday its limited sales growth reflected its move to reduce prices
ahead of the market.
UK grocery inflation returns to downward trend, says Kantar (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19 is here to stay: what you need to know
10 September 2024
COVID-19 is here to stay: what you need to know
It's been over a year since the World Health
Organization downgraded COVID-19's pandemic status, but the summer of 2024 has
seen a sharp increase in the number of cases. We all know someone who came back
from their vacation and tested positive, or have come down with the virus
ourselves. The World Health Organization said in the first week of August, that
the virus is increasing in at least 84 countries. In the US, the number of
coronavirus-related emergency room visits increased dramatically at the beginning
of July. According to the CDC, the week ending July 6 saw 23.5% more hospital
visits than the previous week.
COVID-19 seemed to be in the rearview mirror, so why this sudden summer
outbreak? According to CNN medical expert Dr. Leana Wen, there has been a wave
of summer infections every year since the pandemic began, potentially due to an
increase in travel and gatherings held indoors to escape the heat during peak
temperatures. She recommends taking extra precautions when traveling or
visiting those who are immunocompromised, and staying up to date on
vaccines.
Check out this gallery for some important tips to stay safe and slow the
spread.
----Wash your hands
According to doctors, the best way to prevent
the coronavirus is to wash your hands thoroughly and frequently. The main mode
of transmission is hand to mouth, eye, or nose contact.
More
COVID-19 is here to stay: what you need to know (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Bilayer
Graphene Reveals New Secrets of Lithium-Ion Storage
9
September 2024
A
research team at the University of
Manchester has made a significant breakthrough
in understanding lithium-ion storage within the thinnest possible battery
anode, composed of just two layers of carbon atoms. Their findings, published
in Nature Communications, reveal an unexpected "in-plane
staging" mechanism that occurs when lithium intercalates into bilayer
graphene. This discovery could lead to advancements in energy storage
technology.
Ion
intercalation is the process by which lithium-ion batteries, which power
devices from electric vehicles to computers and smartphones, store energy.
During charging, lithium ions move between layers of graphite, a common
material in battery anodes. The more lithium ions that can be added and then
removed, the greater the battery's capacity to store and release energy.
Despite
being widely recognized, the details of this process remain unclear. The
Manchester research team focused on bilayer graphene, the thinnest material
that could serve as a battery anode, consisting of just two atomic layers of
carbon. Their research sheds new light on the intricacies of ion intercalation.
In
their experiments, the researchers replaced the conventional graphite anode
with bilayer graphene and observed how lithium ions behaved during the
intercalation process. Surprisingly, they found that lithium ions do not
randomly intercalate between the two layers or all at once. Instead, the
process occurs in four distinct stages, with lithium ions arranging themselves
systematically at each stage, forming increasingly dense hexagonal lithium ion
lattices.
The
discovery of 'in-plane staging' was completely unexpected. It revealed a much
greater level of cooperation between the lattice of lithium ions and the
crystal lattice of graphene than previously thought. This understanding of the
intercalation process at the atomic level opens up new avenues for optimizing
lithium-ion batteries and possibly exploring new materials for enhanced energy
storage.
Irina
Grigorieva, Professor, University of Manchester
The
study also revealed that, compared to conventional graphite, bilayer graphene
has a lower capacity for storing lithium, though it offers valuable new
insights. This reduced capacity is due to weaker screening of the interactions
between positively charged lithium ions, leading to greater repulsion and
preventing the ions from getting as close.
While
this suggests that bulk graphite may outperform bilayer graphene in terms of
storage capacity, the discovery of bilayer graphene's unique intercalation
mechanism is a significant advancement. Additionally, this discovery raises the
possibility of using atomically thin metals to enhance the screening effect,
which could potentially increase the storage capacity of future battery
materials.
Journal
Reference:
Astles,
T., et al. (2024) In-plane staging in lithium-ion intercalation of
bilayer graphene. Nature Communications. doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51196-x,
Bilayer Graphene
Reveals New Secrets of Lithium-Ion Storage (msn.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
It's
easy being a humorist when you've got the whole government working for you.
Will
Rogers.
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