Baltic
Dry Index. 1958 +17 Brent Crude 71.78
Spot Gold 2501 US 2 Year Yield 3.68 +0.02
As soon as government management begins it upsets the natural equilibrium of industrial relations, and each interference only requires further bureaucratic control until the end is the tyranny of the totalitarian state.
Adam Smith.
In the stock casinos, more great volatility on rebound Monday. To this old dinosaur stock and commodities follower since 1968, wild volatile swings after an extended bull market/bubble, are often a sign of the top forming.
Nothing in the global economy would have me long most stocks and only a few commodities like cocoa, long here.
Ding,
ding, ding, later today, fight night, debate night between in the red
corner former President Trump and in the blue corner Vice President Harris.
Barring a real disaster by either, I doubt that the great debate will swing many voters. Voters nearly everywhere tend to vote their self interest, when they bother to vote at all.
Either winning is likely to be very bad for the US and global economies, deepening and lengthening the next recession. Sadly for all, one of them has to win in November unless there’s a very unlikely hung Electoral College.
Asia-Pacific
markets higher as China exports beat expectations
Published
Mon, Sep 9 2024 7:43 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets were higher on Tuesday, following gains on Wall Street that saw both
the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rebound
from their worst week of the year.
The
S&P 500 gained 1.16%, after posting its worst week since March 2023. The
Nasdaq Composite also jumped 1.16% following its worst week in more than two
years.
Traders
in Asia will parse August trade data from China and India.
China’s
exports grew 8.7% year-on-year in August and imports grew 0.5%,
customs data showed, compared to the forecast of 6.5% and 2%, respectively, in
a Reuters poll.
In
July, exports rose by 7% from a year ago, while imports increased by a
more-than-expected 7.2%.
Apple
just wrapped up an event at its headquarters in Cupertino, California,
where it unveiled the iPhone 16 Pro and the iPhone 16 Pro Max, which join the
iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus the company announced earlier. These are Apple’s
more premium phones that have nicer screens and cameras than the regular
models.
Preorders
for the new iPhones begin Friday and launch on Sept. 20.
Hong
Kong Hang Seng index rose
0.3% and Taiwan’s Weighted
Index was flat. In Hong Kong, shares of tech giant Alibaba rose over
4% after the stock was added to the Stock Connect cross-border
investment scheme.
The Stock Connect scheme allows investors in mainland
China or Hong Kong to trade and settle shares listed on the other market via
the stock exchanges and clearing houses in their home market.
Apple’s
major suppliers Hitachi and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Company shares rose 1.6% and 0.56%, respectively, while Hon Hai Precision Industry —
known internationally as Foxconn — dropped 0.87%.
Mainland
China’s CSI 300 edged down by 0.39%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.6%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 0.1% and
the broad-based Topix moved 0.34% higher.
South
Korea’s Kospi index was
up 0.04% and the small-cap Kosdaq slipped 0.4%.
Overnight
in the U.S., the Dow Jones
Industrial Average tracked the rise in the S&P and Nasdaq, ending
1.2% higher after the 30-stock index lost more than 1,200 points last week.
Asia stock markets, China trade, India trade, Apple iPhone launch (cnbc.com)
Stock
futures are little changed after S&P 500 posts first winning day in
September: Live updates
Updated
Tue, Sep 10 2024 7:49 PM EDT
Stock
futures hovered near the flatline Monday evening after the major averages
rebounded from their worst week in 2024.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 added
0.1%, while Nasdaq 100
futures advanced 0.1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were
little changed.
In
extended trading, cloud platform company Oracle surged nearly 9%
after posting fiscal
first-quarter results that topped expectations. Oracle also announced
a partnership with Amazon Web Services to provide database services.
On
Monday, the three major averages made a sharp comeback after posting their
worst week this year as investors bought the dip. The S&P 500 popped 1.16% to
snap a four-day run of losses and post its first winning day in September.
The Nasdaq Composite also
closed 1.16% higher, aided by a jump in Nvidia. The Dow climbed 484 points, or
1.2%.
These
moves come as investors bet that a widely anticipated interest rate cut at the
Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17-18 meeting could help assuage concerns over a
weakening economy. August’s payrolls report, which came out last Friday,
reflected growth of
142,000, below economists’ expectations. The results helped fuel a sell-off
that day.
Traders
have their eyes on two key economic reports that will likely be the next
catalysts for stocks. The consumer price index report for August is due out
Wednesday, followed by the producer price index on Thursday.
September
is historically
a weak month for equities. Investors remain cautious about seasonality’s
effect on stock performance as well as uncertainty around the approaching U.S.
presidential election on Nov. 5.
“We
concur with the view that the market is likely to remain choppy at least until
the election,” Bank of America equity and quantitative strategist Ohsung Kwon
wrote Monday. “Macro data have been weakening, especially in
manufacturing/goods, which represent 50% of earnings for the S&P 500.”
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news.
Currencies
tread with caution ahead of US inflation test
10
September 2024
SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - The dollar was steady in early trading on Tuesday, with the yen
inching away from one-month highs as investors brace for U.S. inflation data
and reassess expectations of a large interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve
starting next week.
A
mixed labour report on Friday failed to make a clear-cut case on whether the
Fed would deliver a regular 25 basis point (bps) rate cut or an outsized 50 bps
one at its Sept. 17-18 policy meeting.
Traders
are now waiting on Wednesday's U.S. consumer price index report for further
policy clues although the Fed has made it clear employment has taken on a
greater focus than inflation. The headline CPI is expected to have risen 0.2%
on a month-on-month basis in August, according to a Reuters poll, unchanged
from the previous month.
As
the non-farm payrolls numbers failed to convince for a 50 bps cut, markets are
now looking to the U.S. inflation data to understand the pace of the Fed’s rate
cuts, ING economists said.
"It
is clear that economic growth is losing momentum, and the markets now seem to
be focused on whether the economy will end up with a soft or hard
landing."
Investor
focus will also be on the highly anticipated televised U.S. Presidential debate
later on Tuesday that could weigh heavily on the November election.
More
Currencies tread with caution ahead of US inflation test (msn.com)
Euro zone investor morale slips again in September amid economic weakness
9 September 2024
(Reuters) - Investor morale in the euro zone
fell for a third consecutive month in September, a survey showed on Monday,
dropping to its lowest level since January amid dissatisfaction over the state
of the economy, particularly in Germany.
The Sentix index for the euro zone fell to
-15.4 points for August from -13.9 in August. Analysts polled by Reuters had
expected it to recover to -12.5 this month.
The survey from Sept. 5-9 among 1,142
investors, querying both satisfaction with the current state as well as future
expectations, showed that the euro zone index on expectations recovered
slightly to -8.0 points from -8.8 in August.
The current situation score for the
region, in turn, dropped to -22.5 from -19.0 in August.
"The political and economic chaos in
Germany is a heavy burden on the entire euro zone," Sentix said in a
statement.
"The only hope for investors in this
context is the prospect of a supportive monetary policy," it added.
Investor morale fell further in Germany,
Europe's largest economy, to -34.7 in September from -31.1 in August. The index
on the current situation in Germany dropped to -48.0 in September from -42.8 in
August.
Euro zone investor morale slips again in September amid economic weakness (msn.com)
HSBC Considers Merging Commercial
and Investment Bank
September 9, 2024
HSBC is weighing combining its commercial
and investment bank divisions as part of new Chief Executive Officer Georges
Elhedery’s push to eliminate overlapping roles across the company and
shed expenses. The effort would bring together HSBC’s global banking and
markets business, which caters to large, multinational corporations and houses
the firm’s trading and investment banking divisions, with its commercial banking
arm. The combined division would become the bank’s largest revenue generator,
dropping about $40 billion a year into HSBC’s coffers and leapfrogging its
wealth and personal banking business. It would also bring together a more than
90,000-person strong workforce, though some executives believe the tie-up could
allow the bank to eliminate some employees.
Here are today’s top stories
Deflation that’s been
stalking China since last year is showing signs of spiraling, which threatens to worsen the
outlook for the world’s second-largest economy while raising calls for
immediate policy action. Data released Monday confirmed that, apart from food
costs, consumer price growth barely registered in large swathes of the Chinese
economy at a time when incomes are sagging.
Consultants seeking work are
increasingly chasing ghosts. Job listings for consulting roles with no
hiring activity, also known as “ghost jobs,” hit a two-year high, according to
data from hiring platform Greenhouse. While ghost jobs have declined in finance
and technology, those in consulting—a bellwether for the white-collar
economy—rose to 31% in the second quarter, up from 26% two years ago and well
above the prevalence across the broader job market.
More
Bloomberg Evening Briefing: HSBC Mulls Merging Commercial, Investment Bank - Bloomberg
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Well maybe, but would/has, Barclay’s ever call a hard landing in sight
Is
US heading toward a recession? Know what Barclays thinks
ByMudit Dube Sep 09, 2024
Pooja
Sriram, a leading US economist at Barclays, has expressed confidence in the
resilience of the American economy.Despite recent fluctuations in the labor
market, she anticipates a "soft landing" rather than a recession.This
term refers to the Federal Reserve's objective of
managing inflation without causing significant job losses or negative economic
growth.Sriram acknowledged that job growth has slowed down but remains
optimistic about the overall economic outlook.
Job
growth slowdown and unemployment rate
Sriram
highlighted that the three-month moving average of employment growth is
currently at 116,000 per month.This figure represents approximately half the
pace it was growing at three months prior.However, she also pointed out that
the unemployment rate—a key indicator monitored by both the market and the
Federal Reserve—has decreased to 4.2% after a rise in July.
Wage
growth remains strong despite labor market cooling
Despite
a slowdown in the labor market, Sriram noted that wage growth has remained
robust.She stated, "We've seen signs of cooling in the labor market, but
it's been gradual and disciplined."Additionally, US consumer spending—a
critical driver of the economy—has remained strong due to solid household
income and wealth fundamentals.Other economic indicators like the Purchasing
Managers's Index (PMI) do not indicate rapid deterioration, further supporting
her soft landing prediction.
US
Fed expected to begin rate-cutting cycle
Sriram
expects the US Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle in September,
which should benefit most markets.The latest US jobs report released on
September 6 has heightened expectations of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut by
the Federal Reserve at its forthcoming meeting on September 17-18.She also
addressed concerns about cooling labor market conditions and potential market
reactions to these changes.
Is US heading toward a recession? Know what Barclays thinks (newsbytesapp.com)
China’s
Deflationary Spiral Is Now Entering Dangerous New Stage
·
Prices
seen as falling through 2025 as wages, demand languish
·
Long-term
deflation could be major setback to China’s economy
Subscription
required.
China’s Deflationary Spiral Is Now Entering Dangerous New Stage - Bloomberg
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
UK Covid-19 Inquiry to examine impact of pandemic on healthcare
9 September 2024
he impact of the Covid
pandemic on NHS workers, patients and the delivery of healthcare is set to be
examined by a public inquiry.
The first public hearings
of module three of the UK Covid-19 Inquiry will be held on Monday, with leaders
from the Health and Safety Executive and Unison expected to give
evidence this week.
This part of the inquiry
is looking at the governmental and societal response to Covid-19 by assessing
the impact of the pandemic on how NHS services were delivered.
This will include how
managers led the pandemic response, the role of primary care and GPs, NHS backlogs, and how
the vaccine programme was integrated.
The diagnosis of long
Covid and the support offered to those affected will also be examined.
Evidence this week will
come from Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice; Dr Barry Jones, chair of the
Covid-19 Airborne Transmission Alliance; Richard Brunt, director of engagement
and policy division at the Health and Safety Executive; and Sara Gorton, head
of health at Unison.
Nicola Brook, solicitor
at Broudie Jackson Canter, which represents more than 7,000 families from the
Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice UK group, said: “This module of the
inquiry is one of the most important in understanding the true horrors of the
pandemic.
“It will reveal some of
the most shocking details, distressing stories and outrageous scandals that
took place.
“Despite the narrative
pedalled by those in charge that the UK coped, the sad fact is people died
unnecessarily.
“Groups like the disabled
and the elderly were written off because it was considered that their lives
were not worth saving.”
In July, the inquiry’s
first report into preparedness for a pandemic found the UK Government and the civil
service “failed” the public due to “significant flaws”.
It said there was a
“damaging absence of focus” on the measures and infrastructure that would be
needed to deal with a fast-spreading disease, even though a coronavirus
outbreak at pandemic scale “was foreseeable”.
More
UK Covid-19 Inquiry to examine impact of pandemic on healthcare (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
The
Largest And Most Powerful Wind Turbine Ever Built Is Now Operational
24
July 2023 By David Nield
News
about switching to greener energy
sources is always good news, and this certainly counts: The world's
largest wind turbine constructed to date is now up and running and contributing
to the power grid in China.
The
MySE 16-260 earns its largest-ever tag thanks to its rotor diameter of 260
meters (853 feet) and its swept area of
53,902 square meters (580,196 square feet); it's also the most powerful wind
turbine we've seen so far, offering 16 megawatts of power.
Here
are some more stats: The central tower stands some 152 meters (499 feet) tall,
and the generator weighs 349 metric tons (385 US tons). It represents a
phenomenal piece of engineering, and it should produce around 66 gigawatt-hours of
energy per year. That's enough to supply approximately 36,000 homes, according to China
Three Gorges Corporation, which helped construct and
install the turbine.
The
MySE 16-260 was installed on a wind farm off the coast of the Fujian Province
in China. That's right in the Taiwan Strait,
where wind speed regularly exceeds 51 kilometers per hour (32 miles per hour),
categorized as a level 7.
That
means this turbine needs to be super resilient, and even in its short time in
the field, it's already survived the
stresses of Typhoon Talim,
which was responsible for 230,000 people being displaced. As well as being
built to last, the turbine has more than 1,000 sensors so it can adapt to
weather conditions in real time.
"Most
of China's coastal areas are in typhoon zones, and if there is no wind turbine
that can withstand typhoons, it can be said that wind power has little future
in China," Qiying Zhang, the Chief Technology Officer at the Mingyang
Smart Energy company that designed the MySE 16-260, said in a statement.
According to China
Three Gorges Corporation, the MySE 16-260 will save around 19,958 metric tons
(22,000 US tons) of coal and 48,987 metric tons (54,000 US tons) of carbon
dioxide emissions every year.
And
there are reasons to be optimistic about the future as well: 18-megawatt wind
turbines are already in the pipeline from
GE, which means the amount of renewable energy we can produce from wind is only
going to go up and up in
the years ahead.
The Largest And
Most Powerful Wind Turbine Ever Built Is Now Operational : ScienceAlert
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
It is
not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we
expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.
Adam
Smith. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations 1776.
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