Baltic
Dry Index. 1977 +01
Brent Crude 75.11
Spot Gold 2630 US 2 Year Yield 3.55 -0.04
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
John Maynard Keynes.
In the stock casinos, more 1929 disconnect from a fast deteriorating economic reality and the October “crash month” is just one week away. What could possibly go wrong?
Well, a much wider Middle East war, for one thing, leading to another surge in crude oil pricing, even if there was no actual Arab oil embargo against the west.
Less dramatically, a US port strike is just one week away, while the strike at Boeing shows no sign of ending.
In Europe, the collapse of German manufacturing profitability. Floods and an increasingly poor harvest outcome for many crops. More food price inflation ahead.
Asia markets mostly higher as investors digest Fed
rate cut, policy moves from regional central banks
Published Sun, Sep 22 2024 8:01 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher
Monday as investors digested monetary policy decisions from Japan and China as
well as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s sharp rate cut last week.
Data last Friday showed China’s youth
unemployment rate rose for a second straight month to its highest level this
year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, as the labor market cools
down amid a weakening economy.
Despite growing calls for lower interest
rates, the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly left
its key benchmark rate on hold on Friday.
China’s central bank supplied 234.6
billion yuan ($33.29 billion) to the banking system through open market
operations, according to a statement on Monday, in a move to “maintain
reasonably sufficient liquidity in the banking system at the end of quarter.”
It also lowered the 14-day reverse repo rate to 1.85% from 1.95% set in the previous funding operation in February.
Separately, the U.S. is reportedly
mulling a ban on importing and selling cars from China that carry
software and hardware for communications or autonomous driving systems.
The Bank of Japan also kept
its benchmark interest rate steady at around 0.25% on Friday. Japan’s
authorities were closely watching the markets for signs of any rebuild of yen
carry trades which could heighten market volatility, Japan’s
top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said.
Markets in Japan were closed Monday for a
public holiday, but futures contract tied to the Nikkei 225 in Chicago were
trading at 38,530, compared to the index Friday close of 37,723.91.
The
Japanese yen weakened slightly to 144.37.
The Reserve Bank of Australia starts its
two-day policy meeting on Monday, where central bankers will decide on the
country’s monetary policy path on Tuesday.
Singapore is set to release its August
consumer prices index, with core CPI estimated to have risen 2.6% year on year,
according to a Reuters poll, compared to 2.5% in July. Overall year-on-year CPI
is expected to have cooled to 2.15%, compared to 2.40% the previous month.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.47%.
In South Korea, the Kospi gained 0.33%
reversing course from a lower open, while the small-cap Kosdaq was up 1.16%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged 0.76%
higher, while mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 0.65%.
The Taiwan Weighted Index inched up 0.41%.
The three major U.S. indexes notched
weekly gains last week, with the S&P
500 advancing 1.36% to mark its fifth positive week over the past six
weeks. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average concluded the week with 1.62% gains while the
tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added
1.49%.
On Friday, the 30-stock Dow closed at a
record high, gaining 0.09% in the day to 42,063.36. The S&P 500 pulled back
0.19%, ending at 5,702.55, while Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.36% to end at
17,948.32.
Asia-Pacific markets: China economy, Fed rate cut, BOJ rate, RBA (cnbc.com)
In other news, a US port strike is now just one week away. Day 10, the Boeing strike continues.
Looming US ports strike threatens fresh supply
chain crisis
Business groups warn of ‘devastating impact’ on economy if dockworkers walk off the job
22 September 2024
Businesses are bracing for a strike at
three dozen US ports that could upend supply chains and raise prices just weeks
before election day.
The International Longshoremen’s
Association says its 25,000 members will walk off the job if the union does not
come to a new agreement with the US Maritime Alliance, which represents
carriers and marine terminal operators, before their contract expires on
September 30.
The contract covers all ports between
Maine and Texas, including New York, Savannah, Houston, Miami and New Orleans.
They receive 41 per cent of the country’s
port volume and their closure would have a “devastating impact” on the US
economy, a coalition of 177 trade groups warned last week.
Business leaders say they have been
tracking the labour negotiations since 2021, but became nervous when talks
broke down in June over automation at the Port of Mobile.
Official negotiations never resumed.
Executives and economists assumed Washington would intercede as it did to
prevent a freight rail strike in 2022, but President Joe Biden said last week
he would not prevent labour action at the ports.
The statement dramatically “rose the level
of alarm”, said Moody’s Analytics economist Adam Kamins.
“The writing is on the wall here,” said
Tom Madrecki, vice-president of the Consumer Brands Association. “There’s a lot
of sabre-rattling. We all don’t want to strike, but I think we have to be
prepared that there could be one . . . and it’s going to have a really serious
impact on the economy.”
Business groups fear that such a major
disruption to supply chains would dramatically raise the cost of importing
materials, exporting products and warehousing shipments, which would raise
consumer prices.
Businesses have already adopted costly
mitigation plans as they face rising shipping costs and increased timelines
from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Though some California ports suffered
labour disruptions last year, the last major work stoppage was an 11-day
lockout at west coast ports in 2002. That closure cost $1bn each day and caused
six months of backlogs.
Trade groups representing retailers,
restaurants, manufacturers, food producers and fashion designers are urging
Biden to reverse his position.
Madrecki said that CBA has been in contact
with the Biden administration on the issue for more than a year but fears that
the November 5 presidential election has “coloured the politics” of the labour
dispute.
Labour unions are a crucial part of
Vice-President Kamala Harris’s voting bloc and ILA leadership has repeatedly
said that they would not welcome government interference in the labour dispute.
---- “A sleeping giant is ready to roar on
Tuesday, October 1, 2024, if a new Master Contract Agreement is not in place,”
ILA president Harold Daggett said in a statement accusing the USMX of
underpaying workers. “My members have been preparing for over a year for that
possibility of a strike.
” USMX said in a statement that it is
“disappointing” that talks with the union broke down, and that “the only way to
resolve this impasse is to resume negotiations, which we are willing to do at
any time”.
Retailers worked to diversify their supply
chains since the Covid crisis left shelves bare, and moved as many shipments as
they could to earlier in the year to prepare for the crucial holiday shopping
period.
But shoppers will still notice shortages
and higher prices if a strike lasts longer than “a couple of days,” Gold said.
More
Looming US ports strike threatens fresh supply chain crisis (ft.com)
Boeing machinists on picket lines prepare for
lengthy strike: ‘I can last as long as it takes’
Published Sat, Sep 21 2024 8:00 AM EDT
RENTON, Wash. — Cash-strapped Boeing is facing mounting costs
from an ongoing machinist
strike as workers push for higher pay. A failure to get a deal done
could be even more expensive.
In the shadow of a factory outside Seattle
where Boeing makes its best-selling planes, picketing Boeing machinists told
CNBC they have saved up money and have taken or are considering taking side
jobs in landscaping, furniture moving or warehouse work to make ends meet if
the strike is goes on much longer.
The work stoppage by Boeing’s factory
workers in the Pacific Northwest just entered its second week. The financial
cost of the strike on Boeing depends on how long it lasts, though ratings
agencies have warned that the company could face
a downgrade if it drags on too long.
That would add to the borrowing costs of
the company, already $60 billion in debt. Boeing has burned
through about $8 billion so far this year in the wake of a
near-catastrophic door plug blowout from one of its 737 Max planes in January.
Boeing hasn’t turned an annual profit
since 2018, and its new
CEO Kelly Ortberg is trying to restore the
company’s reputation after months of manufacturing crises that have
slowed deliveries to customers, depriving it of cash.
At the local union office in Renton,
machinists were preparing for what may become a lengthy strike: Union members
carried in large pallets of bottled water, while someone mixed a giant tuna
salad in the kitchen to make sandwiches for workers. Union vans visited
demonstration sites around Renton offering transportation to bathroom breaks
for workers on picket duty. Burn barrels provided heat for chilly overnight
pickets.
Many workers spoke of their love for their
jobs but fretted about the high cost of living in the Seattle area, where the
majority of Boeing’s aircraft are made.
The median home price in Washington state
increased about 142% to $613,000 as of 2023, from $253,800 a decade earlier,
according to the state’s Office of Financial Management. That outpaces the
roughly 55% increase nationally over that period, according to data from the
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
“We can’t afford [to own] a home,” said
Jake Meyer, a Boeing mechanic who said he will start driving for a food
delivery service during the strike and is looking at picking up odd jobs such
as moving furniture. Meyer said although he’s striking for higher pay from
Boeing, he enjoys the job of building airplanes.
“I take pride in my work,” he said.
Another Boeing machinist said he has been
saving for months, forgoing things such as restaurants and paying three months
of mortgage payments early.
“I can last as long as it takes,” said the
worker, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
More
Boeing strike: Machinists prepare for lengthy stoppage (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Hmm.
Did any of this influence the Fed’s election bonus cut of a half percent?
IBM
Layoffs: Tech Firm Silently Fires Thousands Of Employees, Says Report
Last
year, CEO Arvind Krishna mentioned that IBM anticipated replacing about 7,800
jobs with artificial intelligence (AI), although he did not specify a timeline
for these changes
By
: ABP
News Bureau | Updated
at : 20 Sep 2024 05:36 PM (IST)
IBM
layoffs: IBM is reportedly laying off thousands of employees this week. The
company is attempting to keep these cuts under wraps, according to a report
from The Register citing multiple sources.
The
report indicates that significant job reductions have occurred, with one
insider stating that "a massive layoff" recently affected thousands
of workers in the IBM Cloud division. The layoffs have been carried out
discreetly, with employees required to sign non-disclosure agreements.
more
IBM Layoffs: Tech Firm Silently Fires Thousands Of
Employees, Says Report (abplive.com)
Cisco's
second layoff of 2024 affects thousands of employees
Updated Wed,
September 18, 2024 at 1:08 PM GMT+1
U.S.
tech giant Cisco has let go of thousands of employees following its second
layoff of 2024.
The
technology and networking company announced in August that it would reduce its
headcount by 7%, or around 5,600 employees, following an earlier layoff
in February,
in which the company let go of about 4,000 employees.
As TechCrunch
previously reported,
Cisco employees said that the company refused to say who was affected by the
layoffs until September 16. Cisco did not give a reason for the month-long
delay in notifying affected staff. One employee told TechCrunch at the time
that Cisco's workplace had become the "most toxic environment" they
had worked in.
Cisco's second layoff of 2024 affects thousands of
employees (yahoo.com)
GM
announces temporary layoffs of hundreds at Kansas plant
Jamie
L. LaReau, Detroit Free Press Thu,
September 19, 2024 at 11:20 PM GMT+1
General
Motors said Thursday it will layoff hundreds of employees at Fairfax
assembly plant in Kansas City, Kansas, as it ends production of the Chevrolet
Malibu sedan.
The
automaker said 680 employees at the plant will start their layoff on Nov. 18.
The automaker told employees of its plan to do phased layoffs earlier this
year.
"As
previously announced in May, GM is investing approximately $390 million in our
Fairfax Assembly Plant to add production of the new Chevrolet Bolt
EV," GM spokesman Kevin Kelly said in a statement to the Detroit Free
Press. "To facilitate the installation
of new tooling, employees will be placed on a
temporary layoff until production resumes in mid-2025."
GM announces temporary layoffs of hundreds at Kansas
plant (yahoo.com)
Warner
Music Expands Layoffs in Restructuring Push
September
20, 2024
- Warner Music
Group said it is going to increase its planned layoffs as part of an
updated restructuring plan aimed at freeing up cash to boost its core
music operations.
- The
entertainment company said it would reduce its staff by about 750
employees or 13% of its total headcount, from original plans to lay off
600 people or 10% of its workforce.
- Warner Music
shares edged lower in early trading Friday and have lost about 15% of
their value so far this year.
The entertainment company said it
would reduce its staffing by about 750 employees, or 13% of its total
headcount, from original plans to lay off 600 people, or 10% of its workforce.
Most of the job cuts at the music
label behind Dua Lipa and Coldplay will be in the company's media properties,
including in-house advertising sales, as well as support functions.
Warner Music
Expands Layoffs in Restructuring Push (msn.com)
Wells
Fargo announces another round of layoffs in October and November in West Des
Moines
September
19, 2024
---- Wells Fargo
layoffs latest in a long series of reductions
The
latest announced layoffs will bring the total Wells Fargo workforce reduction
in the Des Moines metro to 285 so far in 2024 and 949 since April 2022.
Wells Fargo announces another round of layoffs in
October and November in West Des Moines (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
How
Covid destroyed our lives, from newborns to pensioners
21
September 2024
Jostled
by others on a packed commuter train, or crowding into a noisy pub, it’s easy
to forget that recent inflection point when the world pressed pause on normal
life. It is scarcely four and a half years since the UK Government, along with
others globally, imposed the first national lockdown to reduce the spread of
the coronavirus. But, in some ways, the trauma of that time was swiftly
forgotten. We moved on with relief, and shudder today at those distant,
bewildering memories of social distancing.
Yet
a growing body of evidence suggests we haven’t truly turned the page on what
now sounds more like a chapter from dystopian fiction. Instead, the effects
of the Covid lockdowns endure, and will continue to be observed and
charted for many decades to come. “We’ll probably be studying the impact of
this for as long as we live,” says Adam Hampshire, professor of cognitive and
computational neuroscience at King’s College London (KCL).
A
startling reminder of the long-term fallout of those unprecedented restrictions
came just this week, as new figures revealed that the number of people on
sickness benefits rose to 3.9m, an increase of almost 40 per cent since the
pandemic first hit.
That
came hard on the heels of news this month that lockdowns may have caused
premature ageing to teenagers’ brains. Research from the University of
Washington found the measures resulted in “unusually
accelerated brain maturation” in adolescents, and that this was far
more pronounced in girls than boys. While the average acceleration in the
development of the male adolescent brain was 1.4 years, for females it was 4.2
years.
If
girls were more dramatically affected, this could be due to their heavier
reliance on social relationships, the researchers have suggested.
But
this cohort is not the only one subject to the long-lasting impacts of
lockdown. Across every age group, a wide range of effects has already been
mapped. Experts believe that more will emerge in time.
Indeed,
it turns out that the way we managed Covid has dramatically affected every
generation. Here’s how.
More
How Covid destroyed our lives, from newborns to pensioners (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
‘Exciting’
solar breakthrough means energy can be kept in sustainable batteries that don’t
overheat
21 September 2024
Solar energy storage is a key
part of the clean energy puzzle.
The world is on track to
install nearly 600 GW worth of solar power this year - 29 per cent more than last year
even after unprecedented growth in 2023.
Making sure solar energy can
be stored is key to taking the renewable to the next level, according to UK
think tank Ember.
But - among other challenges
- many batteries are made from unsustainable materials, and have a tendency to
overheat.
In a “very exciting”
development, researchers based at the Barcelona East School of Engineering
(EEBE) have now tackled both issues with a unique hybrid device.
“I am very excited about this since we are
demonstrating that it is possible to increase efficiency and add storage to
photovoltaic systems,” lead researcher professor Kasper Moth-Poulsen tells
Euronews Green.
How does the new solar
storage tech work?
The device combines a silicon
solar cell with a storage system called MOST, which stands for molecular solar
thermal energy storage systems.
While working at Chalmers
University of Technology in Gothenburg, Moth-Poulsen used MOST to show
that solar energy can be stored for 18 years.
The technology is based on a
specially designed molecule of carbon, hydrogen and nitrogen that changes shape
when it comes into contact with sunlight.
These are common elements -
providing an alternative to other technologies relying on scarce materials like
lithium.
When ultraviolet light shines
on them, the organic molecules undergo a chemical transformation and store the
energy for later use.
A unique feature of the
system is that the molecules also provide cooling in the photovoltaic cell by
acting as an optical filter, and blocking photons (light particles) that would
normally cause heating.
Unsurprisingly, battery systems work more efficiently when they don’t get too hot.
In this case, lab tests have
achieved a record energy storage efficiency of 2.3 per cent for molecular
thermal solar energy (up from the usual 1.1 per cent).
The second, photovoltaic,
part of the device - which converts solar energy into electricity - has also
scored efficiency gains thanks to the cooling effect of the MOST system.
How could this solar battery
be used and what’s next?
“With further development, it
may be possible to develop this technology as a retrofit upgrade to existing
solar cell installations,” Moth-Poulsen says.
After this successful
laboratory-scale demonstration, detailed in journal Joule, the researchers now have
some engineering ahead to make the tech robust for long-term use. They also
need to improve the materials production to lower the price.
“The systems are currently
made in university laboratories - eventually we need to work together with
partners on the scale up,” he adds.
Albeit at an early stage, the
researchers hope their hybrid invention will soon help reduce our reliance on
fossil fuels, and minimise the environmental impact of other batteries.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
It is
better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.
John Maynard Keynes.
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