Baltic Dry Index. 2110 +19 Brent Crude 71.98
Spot
Gold 2658 U S 2 Year Yield 3.55 -0.05
If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well
enough.
Albert Einstein.
In
the stock casinos, life has never been better. What’s not to like as the
punters all front run the central banksters (and US presidential candidates,)
promise of Easy Street for all.
In
the real world, a deeply indebted world, is tumbling, stumbling, into recession
and war. Hopefully not nuclear war.
An
81 year old US President and his ineffective, inept team have never been seen
more as a toothless irrelevant tiger pussy cat.
From
the USA, Canada, UK and EU, the west’s “leadership” has never been so
ineffectual since the 1930s.
With
China in deflation, the EU entering stagflation and recession, and the US
economy either in or entering recession, nothing good lies ahead in 2025, assuming
Israel doesn’t set off World War Three.
Neither
US presidential candidate offers more than crackpot economic policies for the
US and global economies.
A
disaster stares the world right ahead, just don’t let on to anyone in the stock
casinos.
Now
is the time to join Noah in building an Ark, or a nuclear bunker depending on
what a desperate Netanyahu does next.
Dow
jumps 100 points to close at a record, major averages extend rally to third
week: Live updates
Updated
Fri, Sep 27 2024 4:41 PM EDT
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed
to a fresh record on Friday as traders digested new data that pointed to
further progress in lowering inflation. Wall Street also posted three straight
positive weeks.
The
30-stock Dow added 137.89 points, or 0.33%, ending at 42,313.00. The blue-chip
average posted a closing record and reached an all-time high during the
session. The S&P 500 ticked
down 0.13% to 5,738.17, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.39%
to end at 18,119.59. A 2% decline in Nvidia weighed on the
technology-heavy index.
The
major averages each extended their gains to a third week, with the S&P 500
and the Dow rising about 0.6% for the period. The Nasdaq advanced nearly 1%
during the week.
Traders
received encouraging inflation data that could give the central bank more
reason to confidently cut interest rates further. August’s personal consumption
expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation —
increased 0.1%, matching expectations from economists polled by Dow
Jones. PCE
increased 2.2% at an annualized pace, below the 2.3% forecast.
Policymakers
and investors alike are hoping for persistent cooling in monthly inflation
figures, allowing for continued easing of borrowing costs that will ease the
strain on corporate and household balance sheets.
“To
the extent that inflation remains under control — and we continue to trend in
that direction — the Fed can focus almost entirely on the labor market, which
means a rate-cutting bias,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at
Independent Advisor Alliance. “As the Fed cuts rates — especially in the
absence of recessionary growth — it is a great tailwind for both stock and bond
markets and should eventually provide some relief for those consumers that are
more interest-rate sensitive,” Zaccarelli said.
Wall
Street is coming off a winning session, after a batch of data assured investors
of the strength of the U.S. economy. Initial jobless claims fell more than
expected in the latest week, indicating a strong labor market, while the final
reading of second-quarter gross domestic product came in at a robust 3%.
Stock
market news for September 27, 2024 (cnbc.com)
Dollar
weakens after inflation data, Yen surges on Ishiba win
September
27, 2024
NEW
YORK (Reuters) -The dollar fell on Friday after a reading of U.S. inflation
signaled price pressures continue to ebb, while the yen strengthened against
the greenback after Shigeru Ishiba, seen as an interest rate hawk, was set to
become Japan's next prime minister.
The
U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% in August,
matching expectations of economists polled by Reuters, after an unrevised 0.2%
gain in July. In the 12 months through August, the PCE price index increased
2.2% after rising 2.5% in July.
In
addition, consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S.
economic activity, rose 0.2% last month after an unrevised 0.5% gain in July.
The data was slightly below the 0.3% estimate but indicated the economy still
maintained some momentum in the third quarter.
The
Federal Reserve has recently signaled a shift in focus away from inflation and
towards keeping the labor market healthy, but delivered a larger-than-usual
interest rate cut of 50 basis points (bps) last week.
"(Fed
Chair) Powell can breathe a little sigh of relief," said Brian Jacobsen,
chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
"After
pushing for a 50 bps cut instead of a more conventional 25 bps cut the personal
income and spending data so far vindicates that decision."
The
dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies,
including the yen and the euro, was down 0.17% at 100.43 after falling to
100.15, its lowest since July 20, 2023, with the euro off 0.14% at $1.116.
The
dollar is down about 0.2% for the week, on pace for its fourth straight weekly
decline and ninth in the last 10. The euro was slightly lower for the week.
Markets
are fully pricing in a cut of at least 25 basis points at the Fed's November
meeting, with expectations for another upsized 50 basis point cut now up to
56.7% after the data, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, from 49.9% before the
release.
More
Dollar
weakens after inflation data, Yen surges on Ishiba win (msn.com)
In
other news, is the death of the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money underway? A
2025 debt disaster ahead?
Metal
prices soar as Fed and China’s stimulus ignites market activity
27
September 2024
Over
the past two weeks, both precious and industrial metal prices have experienced
strong gains, driven by the policy tailwinds of major central banks,
particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the People's Bank of China (PBOC).
Gold
repeatedly reached new highs, with spot gold rising by €90 per ounce as of
Thursday’s close, or 4% since 18 September, when the Fed delivered a
significant 0.5% rate cut last week.
Similarly,
spot silver surged 5% to €28.64 per ounce during the same period. In dollar
terms, silver soared to a 12-year high of $32.71 per ounce before retreating.
Furthermore,
China’s substantial package of easing measures announced on Tuesday triggered a
spike in industrial metal prices, with copper futures contracts on the LME
surging 6% to $10,080 (€9,024) per metric tonne this week, marking the highest
level in two months.
Meanwhile,
other industrial metals, including aluminium, zinc, and tin, also saw price
increases amid optimistic demand forecasts. The surge in metal prices may not
end here, as the macroeconomic environment continues to support upward
momentum.
While
gold and silver prices are closely linked to shifts in Fed policy, copper and
other industrial metals are more responsive to China’s growth prospects.
As
a result, metal markets are likely to continue their upward trend as
policymakers in the world’s two largest economies implement further easing
measures.
The
Fed on course for more rate reductions
The
Federal Reserve plays a key role in driving precious metal prices, as precious
metals and the US dollar typically have an inverse relationship. When the Fed
cuts rates and the dollar weakens, the opportunity cost of holding gold and
silver decreases, making it more attractive.
Gold
and silver often rise during periods of low interest rates, as investors seek
better stores of value, particularly in a low-yield environment.
Mounting
US government debt and the risks of an economic downturn are likely to prompt
the Fed to reduce interest rates at each meeting for the remainder of the year.
According
to Fed funds futures pricing at CME Group, there is a 50% chance of either a
0.25% or 0.5% rate cut in November, followed by a 0.25% cut in December.
Anticipation of much lower interest rates is likely to continue supporting gold
and silver prices.
Additionally,
rapid rate cuts and easing measures also signal deteriorating economic
conditions in major economies, driving increased demand for safe-haven assets,
particularly gold.
Silver
tends to follow gold’s trend, with investors closely monitoring the gold/silver
ratio, the number of ounces of silver it takes to equal the value of one ounce
of gold, to inform their investment strategies.
More
Metal prices soar
as Fed and China’s stimulus ignites market activity (msn.com)
France’s
debt increased to 112 percent of GDP in second quarter, data shows
27
September 2024
France’s
public debt increased to near €3.23 trillion, or 112 percent of GDP, between
April and June, official statistics showed Friday. The data was published
as the country’s new government is looking to tackle the mounting debt pile,
with Prime Minister Michel Barnier expected to outline his policies in a speech
to lawmakers next week.
France's
vast public debt pile grew in the second quarter, official figures showed
Friday, as Prime Minister Michel
Barnier's shaky minority government girds itself for a gruelling budget debate.
New
borrowings of 68.9 billion euros ($77 billion) between April and June increased
the country's debt pile to almost 3.23 trillion euros, or 112 percent of annual
output, data from statistics agency INSEE showed.
The
figures underline the scale of the challenge for Barnier, the former European
Union commissioner and Brexit negotiator heading a centrist and conservative
coalition heavily outnumbered in the National Assembly lower house.
With
the chamber roughly divided in three since July's parliamentary election,
the NFP left alliance and far-right National Rally (RN) could oust the new government at
any time if they joined forces in a confidence vote.
There
is scepticism among financial players of Paris' ability to get its debt and
annual deficit under control.
Ratings
agency S&P downgraded France's creditworthiness earlier this year.
And
just this week the yield on France's debt -- the return investors can expect
for holding 10-year government bonds -- outstripped the measure for Spain for
the first time since 2006, pointing to falling confidence among investors.
Barnier
is expected to lay out the broad strokes of his policy Tuesday in a speech to
lawmakers that will also be closely watched by markets.
His
new budget minister Laurent Saint-Martin said Wednesday that the draft 2025
budget law would be filed "in the week beginning October 9".
"Our
public finances are in a grave state, and I won't beat around the bush,"
Saint-Martin said, warning that this year's annual budget deficit would likely
top six percent of GDP -- twice the European Union limit.
More
France’s
debt increased to 112 percent of GDP in second quarter, data shows (msn.com)
Trump
calls for prosecution of Google over search results he says favor Harris
Published
Fri, Sep 27 2024 2:23 PM EDT
Donald Trump on Friday
called for Google to
be criminally prosecuted for what the Republican presidential
nominee called the company’s bias toward his election opponent,
Vice President Kamala Harris,
in online search results.
Trump
in a social media post wrote that if the Department of Justice does not prosecute Google “for
this blatant interference of Elections” he would request its prosecution “when
I win the election and become President of the United States!”
He
seemed to be reacting to a new study by the right-leaning Media Research Center, or MRC,
which purportedly found that Google search engine results tended to show news
articles that supposedly were positive to the Democrat Harris ahead of Trump’s
own campaign website when a user searched for “Donald Trump presidential race
2024.”
In
his post on Truth Social, Trump wrote: “It has been determined that Google has
illegally used a system of only revealing and displaying bad stories about
Donald J. Trump, some made up for this purpose while, at the same time, only
revealing good stories about Comrade Kamala Harris.”
MRC
founder Brent Bozell told Fox News Digital on Wednesday that “Google is trying
to stack the deck in favor of Kamala Harris.”
A
Google spokesperson, when contacted by CNBC about Trump’s post, pointed to the
company’s earlier statement on the report.
“Both
campaign websites consistently appear at the top of Search for relevant and
common search queries,” Google said at that time. “This report looked at a
single rare search term on a single day a few weeks ago, and even for that
search, both candidates’ websites ranked in the top results on Google.”
The
spokesperson on Friday also said the MRC report looks at a “very uncommon
query,” and said that the report’s conclusions are wrong.
“Queries
about the presidential election or candidates generally surface links to
constantly changing news articles reflecting what’s on the web — so they change
all the time,” the spokesperson said. “We absolutely do not manipulate search
results to favor any candidate.”′
MRC
founder Brent Bozell told Fox News Digital on Wednesday that “Google is trying
to stack the deck in favor of Kamala Harris.”
A
Google spokesperson, when contacted by CNBC about Trump’s post, pointed to the
company’s earlier statement on the report.
“Both
campaign websites consistently appear at the top of Search for relevant and
common search queries,” Google said at that time. “This report looked at a
single rare search term on a single day a few weeks ago, and even for that
search, both candidates’ websites ranked in the top results on Google.”
The
spokesperson on Friday also said the MRC report looks at a “very uncommon
query,” and said that the report’s conclusions are wrong.
“Queries
about the presidential election or candidates generally surface links to
constantly changing news articles reflecting what’s on the web — so they change
all the time,” the spokesperson said. “We absolutely do not manipulate search
results to favor any candidate.”′
Trump:
Google should be prosecuted over search results he says favor Harris (cnbc.com)
Gold, unlike all other commodities, is a currency...and the
major thrust in the demand for gold is not for jewellery. It's not for anything
other than an escape from what is perceived to be a fiat money system, paper
money, that seems to be deteriorating.
Alan Greenspan.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
September’s
[USA] consumer confidence fell on a negative view of the current labor market,
sliding to 98.7 from 105.6. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference
Board, stated that consumers are pessimistic about the future labor market
conditions and less optimistic regarding future business conditions and income.
Key
Fed inflation gauge at 2.2% in August, lower than expected
Published
Fri, Sep 27 2024 8:32 AM EDT
Inflation moved closer to the Federal Reserve’s
target in August, easing the way for future interest rate cuts, the Commerce
Department reported Friday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, a gauge the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in
the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate
at 2.2%, down from 2.5% in July and the lowest since February 2021. The Fed
targets inflation at 2% annually.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting
all-items PCE to rise 0.1% on the month and 2.3% from a year ago.
Excluding food and energy, core PCE rose 0.1% in
August and was up 2.7% from a year ago, the 12-month number 0.1 percentage
point higher than July. Fed officials tend to focus more on core as a better
measure of long-run trends. The respective forecasts were for 0.2% and 2.7% on
core.
“All quiet on the inflation front,” said Chris
Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“Add today’s PCE Price Index to the list of economic data landing in a sweet
spot. Inflation continues to keep its head down, and while economic growth may
be slowing, there’s no indication it’s falling off a cliff.”
Though the inflation numbers indicated continued
progress, the personal spending and income numbers both came in light.
Personal income increased 0.2% on the month while
spending rose 0.2%. The respective estimates were for increases of 0.4% and
0.3%.
Stock market futures were positive following the
report while Treasury yields were negative.
More
PCE inflation August 2024: Prices rise 2.2%, less than expected
(cnbc.com)
Inflation slows sharply in France and Spain
in September
Updated /
Friday, 27 Sep 2024 11:05
Annual inflation
slowed sharply in France and Spain in September, official data showed today,
fuelling speculation over whether the European Central Bank will cut rates
again next month.
Consumer prices
rose by 1.2% in France in September, down from 1.8% in August, as energy prices
dropped, according to the INSEE statistics institute.
In Spain,
inflation cooled to 1.5% last month after reaching 2.3% in August as fuel and
food prices eased, according to the country's National Institute of Statistics.
The gauge used
by the ECB to make rate decisions, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, was
also well below the European central bank's 2% target in both countries - 1.5%
in France and 1.7% in Spain.
September
figures for the whole euro zone will be released next week.
Inflation in the
20-nation euro zone slowed to 2.2% in August, the lowest level in more than
three years.
"September's
inflation data from France and Spain all but confirm that the headline rate in
the eurozone as a whole - released next week - will show a sharp decline to
below the two-percent target," said Franziska Palmas, senior Europe
economist at research group Capital Economics.
The ECB and
other central banks hiked interest rates in an effort to tame inflation, which
jumped in the aftermath of the Covid pandemic and soared further after Russia
invaded Ukraine.
But major
central banks have started to lower borrowing costs this year, as inflation is
cooling.
The ECB will
make its next rate decision in October.
Inflation slows sharply in France and Spain in September (rte.ie)
Volkswagen cuts 2024 outlook as car demand
falters
Published Fri, Sep 27 2024 4:42 PM EDT
Volkswagen cut its annual
outlook for the second time in less than three months on
Friday, citing a weaker-than-expected performance at its passenger
car division as pressure on Europe’s top automaker continues to rise.
The lowered outlook is the
latest from Germany’s car giants, with Mercedes-Benz and BMW both downgrading their annual forecasts earlier
this month as a result of weakening demand in China, the world’s biggest car
market.
It also comes two days
after Volkswagen kicked off crucial talks with IG Metall, Germany’s
most powerful union, over pay and job protection, a historic conflict that could lead to the first German
factory closures in the carmaker’s history.
Volkswagen now expects a profit
margin of around 5.6% in 2024, down from 6.5-7% previously and below the 6.5%
LSEG estimate, while sales are expected to fall by 0.7% to 320 billion euros
($356.7 billion) after the company had initially expected an increase of up to
5%.
Volkswagen said it was cutting its
outlook “in light of a challenging market environment and developments that
have fallen short of original expectations, particularly at the
brands Volkswagen Passenger Cars, Volkswagen Commercial
Vehicles and Tech. Components”.
The German carmaker, which owns majority
stakes in Porsche and truck giant Traton also cut its outlook for global
deliveries to around 9 million, down from a prior forecast of a rise
of up to 3% from 9.24 million vehicles in 2023.
Porsche, the holding company of the
Porsche and Piech families that holds most of the voting rights
in Volkswagen and is the carmaker’s single biggest shareholder, also
cut its own outlook in the wake of Volkswagen’s downgrade.
Falling demand
Frankfurt-listed shares
in Volkswagen and Porsche were trading 0.7% and 1.6% lower,
respectively.
A softening global economy has hit
Germany’s export-oriented economy at a time when a painful shortage of skilled
labor and high energy prices and cheaper Asian rivals have already cranked up
the pressure on local industrial heavyweights, including Thyssenkrupp and BASF.
More
Volkswagen
cuts 2024 outlook as car demand falters (cnbc.com)
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
Drug-free nasal spray prevents infection by
trapping viruses in the nose
By Ben Coxworth September 25, 2024
Nobody wants to get a
respiratory infection such as COVID-19 or the flu, but vaccines aren't 100%
effective, and constantly taking preventative drugs can be problematic. That's
where a special nasal spray may come in, as it's been shown to prevent such illnesses
(in mice) without the use of drugs.
Respiratory viruses
typically enter our body within droplets that are exhaled by infected people,
and inhaled through our nose. Those viruses proceed to reproduce while
infecting the cells lining our nasal passageways. When we subsequently sneeze
or even just exhale, their progeny are ejected within fluid droplets to infect
more people.
In an effort to trap and
neutralize viruses within the nose, scientists from Harvard-affiliated Brigham
and Women’s Hospital looked to the US Food and Drug Administration. More
specifically, they sought out ingredients that had previously been used in FDA-approved
nasal sprays, or that were on the FDA's Generally Recognized as Safe list.
The resulting substance
is known as the Pathogen Capture and Neutralizing Spray (PCANS), and it
contains no drugs of any kind.
Instead, the spray forms
a gel that lines the inside of the nose. While this gel doesn't affect the
user's breathing, it does trap any viruses or bacteria that are subsequently
inhaled into the nose, immobilizing them until they die.
In lab tests, the spray
protected mice from a mouse-adapted form of the H1N1 influenza virus, even when
that virus was administered at 25 times the lethal dose. What's more, virus
levels in the animals' lungs were reduced by over 99.99% as compared to an
untreated control group of mice. The spray was retained in the rodents' noses
for up to eight hours, and was effective at blocking infection for at least
four hours.
Although PCANS has yet to
be tested on humans, it has been used in a 3D-printed model of
a human nose, where it captured twice as many microbe-containing droplets as
mucus alone.
"It blocked and
neutralized almost 100% of all viruses and bacteria we tested, including
influenza, SARS-CoV-2, RSV, adenovirus, K Pneumonia and more," says Dr.
John Joseph, primary author of the study.
The research is described
in a paper that was recently published in the journal Advanced Materials. And if you suffer from allergies, take note
– the scientists believe the spray could one day also be used on a daily basis
to trap and neutralize allergens.
Source: Brigham and Women’s
Hospital
Drug-free nasal spray prevents infection by
trapping viruses in the nose (newatlas.com)
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Fisker and SunPower Bankruptcies Leave Their App Users
Hanging
Managing
your electric car or solar panels via smartphone app gets complicated when
the company that handles the software goes under.
September 26, 2024 at 12:00 PM GMT+1
With everything from coffee makers to
garage door openers now connected to the internet, smartphone apps are the de
facto remote control for modern life. So what happens when the companies behind
the software go out of business?
That’s the dilemma faced by customers of
EV maker Fisker Inc. and
solar giant SunPower Corp.,
which filed for bankruptcy in June and August, respectively. Richmond,
California-based SunPower has installed more than 500,000 residential solar
systems over the past two decades, while Manhattan Beach, California-based
Fisker delivered some 7,000 of its Ocean SUV before abruptly shuttering.
Software controls everything from the
Ocean’s air conditioning to its braking system, and social media forums are
flooded with owners complaining about glitches that have in some cases rendered undrivable cars
costing as much as $70,000. The Fisker app, which includes functions such as
allowing drivers to unlock their car, crashed soon after the company filed for
Chapter 11. That’s proven particularly nerve-wracking for Ocean owners, who
only received a single key fob with no option to purchase additional copies.
“That means if you lost your key fob or
it was broken and the app is down, essentially your car is a very expensive
paperweight with no way to access it or drive it,” says Brian Layden, an Ocean
driver in North Carolina and spokesperson for the nonprofit Fisker Owners
Association, which counts more than half of the
company’s customers as members.
It’s not clear what recourse there will
be for those customers. Fisker did not respond to a request for comment, but
the Fisker Owners Association is working with the carmaker to ensure they’re
informed of software updates and other developments. The group, which hired an
attorney to represent it at bankruptcy hearings, also compiled a list of
service centers that can repair the Ocean.
Consumer advocates point to the safety
issues that could arise from a lack of software support, whether as hazardous
as faulty braking or as inconvenient as getting locked out of your car. “If a
company builds a connected device, they need to allocate capital to support it
over the expected life of the product,” says Stacey Higginbotham, a policy
fellow at Consumer Reports. “That means if you’re in bankruptcy, you should
have funds in escrow for it.”
SunPower customers are also in limbo.
Many depend on the mySunPower app to manage home energy systems that often
include batteries and can cost $25,000 and up.
More
Fisker and SunPower Bankruptcies Leave Their App Users Hanging -
Bloomberg
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. This weekend something very different. Not many
wrote music for the piano and the guitar. In fact, did anyone else? Approx. 8 minutes.
Anton
Diabelli (1781-1858) - Sonatine für das Pianoforte und Guitare (1834)
Anton Diabelli
(1781-1858) - Sonatine für das Pianoforte und Guitare (1834) - YouTube
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 13 minutes.
Gukesh
- The Untouchable!
Gukesh - The
Untouchable! - YouTube
This
weekend’s final diversion. Inside the St.
Louis Gateway Arch. Approx. 15 minutes.
What's
inside of the Gateway Arch? (St. Louis, Missouri)
What's inside of
the Gateway Arch? (St. Louis, Missouri) - YouTube
Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they
are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology,
called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it
to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By
increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly
threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar
in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in
dollars of those goods and services.
Ben Bernanke. [US Official debt now $35, 351,
000,000,000.]
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