Baltic Dry Index. 2091 +75 Brent Crude 71.50
Spot Gold 2670 US 2 Year Yield 3.60 +0.07
The first requisite of a sound monetary system is that it put the least possible power over the quantity or quality of money in the hands of the politicians.
Henry Hazlitt.
In the stock casinos, euphoria.
Despite two endless wars with a third just starting, Boeing on strike, a US east cost port strike starting next Tuesday, the EU entering stagnation, consumer confidence falling in America, Canada, the UK and Europe, what’s not to like at the top?
Buy more! It’s 1929 all over again, but without the crash!
Well maybe, but much more likely to dinosaur Graeme, maybe not.
Dow jumps more than 250 points, S&P 500 closes
higher to post fresh record: Live updates
Updated Thu, Sep 26 2024 4:17 PM EDT
Stocks rose Thursday, with the S&P 500 hitting a new
record, following the release of upbeat U.S. economic data.
The broad market index climbed 0.40% to
5,745.37. The index posted a new all-time high during the session and a record
close, lifted by gains in Micron
Technology. The Nasdaq
Composite added 0.60%, closing at 18,190.29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced
260.36 points, or 0.62%, to end at 42,175.11.
Micron closed 14.7% higher after issuing
strong guidance for the current quarter. Results for Micron’s fiscal fourth
quarter also topped analysts’ estimates. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) added
2.9%.
A slate of fresh data supported a solid
economy, easing fears that perhaps the Federal Reserve is cutting rates
aggressively because of a potential slowdown.
Weekly
jobless claims fell more than expected, pointing to a steady labor
market. Durable goods orders for August were unchanged versus economists’
expectations for a decline. Further, the final reading of second-quarter GDP
was unrevised at a strong 3%.
“If there’s a problem in the labor market,
it’s not showing up in the weekly jobless claims data. As is always the case,
though, the monthly jobs report will play a bigger role in defining market
sentiment,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing for
E-Trade from Morgan Stanley. “But until there’s evidence to the contrary,
numbers like this will likely keep soft-landing hopes alive and well.”
Both the S&P 500 and the Dow fell
Wednesday, taking a breather from their recent strong runs. Both indexes had
hit fresh all-time highs earlier in the day.
Stock market news for September 26, 2024 (cnbc.com)
Hong Kong stocks set for best week since 1998,
China since 2008 on stimulus impact
Published Thu, Sep 26 2024 7:54 PM EDT
Chinese markets are set for their best
week in almost 16 years as the mainland’s CSI 300 is poised for a nearly 15%
rally this week, powered by the central bank announcing and releasing economic
stimulus measures.
The last time the index saw a bigger
weekly gain was the week ending Nov. 14, 2008.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is set for a
weekly gain of 12.85%, its best week since February 1998 according to FactSet
data.
On Friday, the CSI 300 climbed almost 4%
and the HSI rose 3.5%, as the People’s Bank of China cut its 7-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.5% from 1.7%, as
well as slashing the reserve requirement ratio of financial
institutions by 0.5 percentage points.
The PBOC said the RRR cut was intended to
help “create a good monetary and financial environment for China’s stable
economic growth and high-quality development,” according to a statement
translated by Google.
China also released its industrial
profit data for August, which saw a 17.8% plunge year on year. The drop
follows a 4.1% year-on-year increase in July, the fastest pace in five months.
On a year-to-date basis, profits at large
industrial firms grew at 0.5% to 4.65 trillion yuan ($663.47 billion) for the
first eight months, compared with 3.6% in the first seven months.
As this data is up to August, investors
will have to wait for the next batch of data to assess the effects of Tuesday’s
stimulus measures.
Separately, at about 11 a.m. Shanghai
time, the Shanghai Stock Exchange reported that it was having “abnormal [and]
slow transaction” in stock auctions since the market opened at 9:30 a.m.
The exchange said in a release that it was investigating the
issues, according to a Google translation.
Other Asia-Pacific markets also mostly
rose Friday, with investors also assessing
September inflation numbers from Japan’s capital city of Tokyo, which
is widely considered a leading indicator of nationwide trends.
Tokyo’s headline inflation rate eased to
2.2%, down from August’s 2.6%.
The core inflation rate — which strips out
prices of fresh food — in the capital city came in at 2%, in line with
expectations from economists polled by Reuters and down from 2.4% in August.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.81%, while
the broad based Topix fell 0.18% after the CPI reading was announced.
South Korea’s Kospi was down 0.21%, while
the small-cap Kosdaq 0.27% lower.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed
0.10%, about 30 points away from its all-time high of 8,246.2.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major
indexes rose, with the S&P
500 hitting a new record following the release of upbeat U.S. economic
data.
The broad market index climbed 0.40% to
5,745.37, lifted by gains in Micron
Technology. The Nasdaq
Composite added 0.60%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced
0.62%.
A slate of fresh U.S. economic data also
supported the market’s gains, with weekly
jobless claims falling more than expected, pointing to a steady labor
market.
Seperately, the final reading of the U.S.′
second-quarter GDP was unrevised at a strong 3%.
Asia markets live: China industrial profit, Japan Tokyo inflation (cnbc.com)
European markets head for higher open as investors
weigh global economic outlook
Published Fri, Sep 27 2024 12:07 AM EDT
LONDON — European markets headed for a
higher open on Friday as investors weighed the outlook for the economy and
looked to fresh data.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was last on track
to add around 4 points to 8,287, Germany’s DAX was set to rise by 47
points to 19,269, France’s CAC was
last set to add around 26 points to 7,759, and Italy’s FTSE MIB was due to gain 87
points to 34,482.
European stocks had climbed
Thursday, with the pan-European
Stoxx 600 closing 1.25% higher after being boosted by gains in Asia-Pacific markets.
Those widely continued their climb on
Friday, still buoyed by China’s announcement of stimulus measures earlier in
the week. On Friday, the People’s Bank of China said it was cutting its 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.5%, the second
reduction in around three months, and slashed the reserve requirement ratio of financial
institutions by 0.5 percentage points.
Meanwhile in the U.S., attention turned to
the release of August’s personal consumption expenditures price index which is
slated for Friday. The PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
Economists are expecting headline PCE to have risen 2.3% on an annual basis and
0.1% from the previous month.
U.S.
stock futures were last little changed ahead of the key data release.
Back in Europe, preliminary inflation data
for September is expected out of France, and the latest German unemployment
data is also due.
European markets: stocks, news and data (cnbc.com)
In other news, nothing good. A second Trump term spells trouble for friend and foe alike.
The UK’s new amateur government has trash talked itself into trouble.
China’s troubles increase.
Not just China, Trump 2.0 could spell trouble for
U.S. allies as he doubles down on tariff talk
Published Thu, Sep 26 2024 12:13 AM EDT
Donald Trump, who has been doubling down
on his tariff-heavy trade policy, appears to have shifted the focus of his
protectionist agenda from China to some of the closest U.S. allies.
Speaking at a campaign event in Savannah,
Georgia, on Tuesday, the Republican presidential nominee said he would build
upon the tariff policies of his first term in an effort to take manufacturing
jobs from foreign countries — both friends and foe.
“You will see a mass exodus of
manufacturing from China to Pennsylvania, from Korea to North Carolina, from
Germany to right here in Georgia,” he said in his mostly economic-centered
speech.
“I want German car companies to become
American car companies, I want them to build their plants here,” he
added.
In his first term, Trump had imposed billions of
dollars worth of
duties on Chinese goods as part of efforts to rectify what he saw as an unfair
trade balance. Trump has said he would consider
new tariffs on
imports from the country at rates of 60% or higher.
U.S. allies could become a key target of
Trump’s “America First” policy that is increasingly grouping European and Asian
partners alongside rival China. The former President has proposed blanket
tariffs as high as 20% that would hit imported good from all countries.
“We have been treated so badly, mostly by
allies ... our allies treat us actually worse than our so-called enemies,”
Trump said at a rally
in Wisconsin earlier
this month.
“On military, we protect them and then
they screw us on trade. We’re not going to let it happen anymore. We’re going
to be a tariff nation,” he added.
The comments echoed statements Trump
made about
Taiwan earlier this year when he accused it of taking “about 100%” of U.S. chip
business. He also said that the democratically governed island should pay the
U.S. for its defense.
Trump has long sought to place economic
and diplomatic pressure on U.S. allies, accusing them of
“free-riding,” and his recent statements signal he’s doubling down on that
approach, said Nick Marro, Lead for Global Trade at Economist
Intelligence.
Experts have said that Japan is also
worried about what could be another “transactional” Trump Presidency and
his mentions
of 100% tariffs on
certain car imports. “Will that include Japanese automakers? So there’s a lot
of uncertainty here at the moment about what the next five years could look
like,” author William Pesek told
CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” in July.
More
Trump 2.0 spells trouble for U.S. allies as he doubles down on tariffs plans (cnbc.com)
US
consumer confidence falls the most in three years
Diego
Mendoza Tue, September 24, 2024 at 4:22
PM GMT+1
US
consumer confidence saw its biggest drop since 2021 as worries about a slowing
labor market and stubbornly high costs of living continue to worry Americans.
The
Conference Board’s index decreased by 6.9 points Tuesday, falling to a level
well below economists’ estimates.
“The
deterioration across the Index’s main components likely reflected consumers’
concerns about the labor market and reactions to fewer hours, slower payroll
increases, fewer job openings — even if the labor market remains quite healthy,
with low unemployment, few layoffs and elevated wages,” said the Conference
Board’s chief economist.
The
report mirrors
concerns about
a lackluster job market that prompted the US Federal Reserve last week to lower
interest rates 0.5 percentage points, a more drastic cut than expected,
Bloomberg reported.
The
fall in consumer confidence marks the biggest drop since August 2021, when
inflation began
to soar and
ultimately reached its highest level in more than 40 years, according to CNBC.
The
share of consumers that said jobs were plentiful also declined for a seventh
consecutive month, marking the longest streak of declines since the 2008
recession.
Consumers
still said they believe there is a low chance of recession within the next
year, but there was a “slight uptick” in the number of people who believe the
economy is already in a downturn, the Conference Board said.
US consumer confidence falls the most in three years (yahoo.com)
‘Turbulent
few months’ ahead for retailers as low consumer confidence lingers
Thursday
26 September 2024 6:00 am
One
of the UK’s largest retail bodies has warned that retailers could suffer in the
next few months during the run-up to Christmas, due to a lack of consumer
confidence in the economy.
Confidence
slumped in September, with an increasing number of Brits saying they expected
the UK economy to get worse over the next three months and would adjust their
purchases down, according to the
British Retail Consortium (BRC).
A
third of consumers said they expected
to spend less on clothes over the next three months, and around a quarter
expected to spend less on electronics, beauty, and entertainment.
Over
a quarter expected to spend more on groceries.
“Retailers could face a
turbulent few months as consumer confidence fell significantly in September,”
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, said.
“Negative
publicity surrounding the state of the UK’s finances appears to have damaged
confidence in the economic outlook, particularly among older generations,”
Dickinson added.
According to GfK’s
consumer confidence measure, sentiment plummeted to -20 from -13 in August, the
lowest level since March.
Fewer
respondents to GfK’s survey felt positive about their own financial position in
September compared to August, and many reported being less likely to make large
purchases.
Dickinson again called on
the government to
foster investment into retail business by reforming business rates.
“By
introducing a Retail Rates Corrector – a 20 per cent adjustment to retail
property rates bills – the Chancellor could help drive investment in local high
streets and communities, creating jobs and boosting consumer confidence,”
Dickinson said.
The
Confederation of British Industry (CBI) similarly called
for the government to fix the “antiquated” business rates system earlier this
month, in order to boost productivity and growth.
The
Government have pledged to reform business rates, and to “level the playing
field” for high streets. Policies details are expected in the budget.
Most
retailers use the so-called ‘golden quarter’, the three months running up to
Christmas and New Year, to cash in, as Brits spend on big-purchases.
'Turbulent few months' ahead for retailers as low consumer confidence lingers (cityam.com)
China’s
industrial profits plunge by 17.8% in August from a year ago
Published
Thu, Sep 26 2024 9:41 PM EDT
China’s
industrial profits plunged by 17.8% in August from a year ago in their largest
decline in more than a year, National Bureau of Statistics data showed Friday.
That
followed a 4.1% year-on-year increase in July, the fastest pace in
five months. Industrial profits data covers factories, mines and utilities in
China.
The
17.8% drop was the steepest since an 18.2% drop in April 2023, according to
official data accessed through Wind Information.
The
statistics bureau attributed the large decline in August to a high base in the
year ago period. In August 2023, the same monthly figure expanded 17.2% from a
year ago.
The
drop dragged down industrial profits for the year. In the first eight months of
the year, profits at large industrial firms grew by 0.5% to 4.65 trillion yuan
($663.47 billion), compared with a 3.6% increase in the first seven months.
“There
is a long-running decline in China’s industrial profits which can only get
worse with Beijing failing to address its overcapacity problem,” Shehzad Qazi,
chief operating officer at China Beige Book, a U.S.-based research firm, said
in an email.
He
expects the country to double down on exports manufactured goods, from electric
cars to steel, to drive economic growth.
During
that eight-month period, the mining and oil industries saw the biggest profit
decline. Smelters and processors of metals other than iron saw the largest
profit gains during that time.
Also
reporting significant profit gains for the period were electronic equipment
manufacturers and the food processing industry, the statistics bureau said.
State-owned
firms recorded a 1.3% decline in profits in the first eight months of the year,
while non-state-owned businesses saw profits climb by 2.6%.
More
China's
industrial profits plunge by 17.8% in August from a year ago (cnbc.com)
Gold was not selected arbitrarily by governments to be the monetary standard. Gold had developed for many centuries on the free market as the best money; as the commodity providing the most stable and desirable monetary medium.
Murray Rothbard.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
German
economy to shrink again in 2024: think tanks
26
September 2024
Germany's
economy is expected to shrink slightly in 2024, leading economic institutes
said on Thursday, as the traditional manufacturing powerhouse continues to
stagnate.
Output
in Europe's largest economy will decline by 0.1 percent this year, five think
tanks said in a joint statement, after it shrank by 0.3 percent in 2023.
he
new figure was a small but significant downgrade on the institutes' previous
estimate of 0.1 percent GDP growth for 2024, made earlier this year.
"The
German economy has been stagnating for more than two years," the
institutes -- DIW, Ifo, IfW Kiel, IWH and RWI -- said in the joint statement.
"A
slow recovery is likely to set in next year, but economic growth will not
return to its pre-coronavirus trend for the foreseeable future," they
said.
The
institutes forecast growth to reach 0.8 percent in 2025, a downward revision on
their previous estimate of 1.4 percent.
For
2026, they predicted the German economy to expand by 1.3 percent.
Germany,
traditionally a driver of European growth, was the only major advanced economy
to shrink in 2023 as it battled high inflation, an industrial slowdown and
cooling export demand.
more
German economy to
shrink again in 2024: think tanks (msn.com)
Is
euro zone heading towards stagflation?
Currency area’s latest pmi data points to downward slide in activity across the bloc
Tue
Sept 24 2024 - 06:00
European
Central Bank (ECB) policymakers would probably prefer a sharp economic sting –
in the form a full-fledged recession across the euro area – and a complete
vanquishing of inflationary forces. Instead we’re getting stuttering, anaemic
growth but also the persistence of inflation in the services sector linked to
wage growth.
Frankfurt’s
very gradual lifting of interest rates probably won’t come in time to stop the
bloc slowing further, with Germany likely to enter another technical recession
with two quarters in a row of contraction. That’s according to HCOB’s
preliminary composite euro zone purchasing managers’ index (PMI), compiled by
S&P Global, which sank to 48.9 this month from August’s 51, below the 50
mark that separates growth from contraction. The composite index tracks the
services and manufacturing sectors, which dominate most economies, and provide
an early indicator of the direction of travel.
The
latest down shift came courtesy of a further decline in Germany, Europe’s
largest economy, led by manufacturing in the economy’s automotive industry.
Volkswagen is considering closing factories in Germany for the first time and
laying off thousands of staff in an attempt to cut costs as the industry shifts
to electric motoring. Volkswagen’s travails are seen as a read on the car
industry in general. The second pull on the pmi was the French economy which
contracted after an Olympics boost in August.
“A
technical recession (in Germany) seems to be baked in,” said Cyrus de la Rubia,
chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, forecasting Germany’s economy would
shrink by 0.2 per cent this quarter. He also claimed the euro zone was heading
towards stagnation. A period characterised by low growth and high inflation.
“Considering
the rapid decline in new orders and the order backlog, it doesn’t take much
imagination to foresee a further weakening of the economy”, de la Rubia said.
Is euro zone heading towards stagflation? – The Irish Times
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Pfizer v Moderna COVID vaccine patents battle to go to appeal in UK
25
September 2024
LONDON
(Reuters) - Pfizer and Moderna's legal battle over their rival COVID-19 vaccines
will continue after London's High Court on Wednesday gave Pfizer permission to
take the case to the Court of Appeal.
Pfizer
and its German partner BioNTech sued Moderna in London in September 2022,
seeking to revoke two patents held by Moderna, which hit back days later
alleging its own patents had been infringed.
The
High Court gave a mixed ruling in July, ruling that one of Moderna's two
patents relating to the messenger RNA (mRNA) technology that underpinned its
COVID-19 vaccine was invalid.
But
the court ruled another similar patent was valid and that Pfizer and BioNTech's
Comirnaty vaccine had infringed it, meaning Moderna is entitled to damages in
relation to sales after March 2022.
Judge
Richard Meade gave Pfizer and BioNTech permission to appeal against that
decision on Wednesday. The issue of any damages owed to Moderna is on hold
pending their appeal.
Moderna
was refused permission to appeal in relation to its patent which was found to
be invalid, but the company can still apply directly to the Court of Appeal.
The
London lawsuits are just one leg of a global battle between Pfizer, BioNTech
and Moderna, which have also been involved in proceedings in Germany, the
Netherlands, Belgium and the United States, as well as at the European Patent
Office.
Pfizer v Moderna COVID vaccine patents battle to go to appeal in UK (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
First Graphene
to supply Halocell’s indoor perovskite solar cell production line
Australian
graphene manufacturer First Graphene has tied the commercial knot with
NSW-based perovskite cell producer Halocell Energy to supply its production of
indoor pervoskite solar cell modules.
September
26, 2024
Western
Australia-headquartered graphene manufacturer First Graphene has joined forces
with NSW-based perovskite cell producer Halocell Energy to
supply graphene for the commercial production of Halocell’s perovskite indoor
solar cell module.
Supplying
its proprietary PureGraph product for use as a high-performing coating for the
perovskite solar cells enables Halocell Energy to expedite its manufacturing
process and enhance light absorbing performance.
Graphene enhanced
modules are up to five times more efficient than conventional silicon solar
cells and are more cost-effective, with Halocell Energy demonstrating graphene
can reduce manufacturing and materials costs by over 80% as the need for
high-cost conductor materials such as gold and silver are eliminated.
The
graphene formulations will also allow the use of roll-to-roll dispersion, which
is a rapid, scalable, and low-cost production technique used to create
the perovskite solar
cells.
First
Graphene Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Michael Bell said the
agreement with Halocell Energy is a significant milestone for the company as it
officially enters the commercial perovskite solar cell industry.
“These
locally manufactured products will change the way Australians leverage solar
power in their home and improve Australia’s renewable energy performance as a
whole,” Bell said.
“Importantly,
the agreement opens a door further for First Graphene to showcase the benefits
of leveraging the unique properties of graphene to improve renewable energy
technology.”
Halocell
Energy Chief Executive Officer Paul Moonie said the manufacturing supply
agreement is pivotal and marks a significant step forward for Halocell in
developing cutting-edge perovskite solar cells.
---- In
September 2023, the three organisations received $2 million (USD 1.3 million)
in funding from the Australian government to support a three-year project
investigating commercialisation of the renewable energy technology.
The
global perovskite solar cell market has been valued at more than $95 million,
with demand expected to nearly double the market value over the next year. In
Australia, energy generated by solar cells accounts for more than 11% of the
nation’s total energy supply.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and a weekend closer to a US east coast port strike. In tomorrow’s LIR
update, Inside the St. Louis Gateway Arch. Have a great weekend everyone.
Gold,
on the contrary, though of little use compared with air or water, will exchange
for a great quantity of other goods.
David
Ricardo.
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