Thursday, 12 September 2024

CPI Low, PPI Today. ECB Cut Today? Stocks Volatile.

Baltic Dry Index. 1963  +22        Brent Crude  71.09

Spot Gold 2517               US 2 Year Yield 3.62  +0.03

The history of government management of money has, except for a few short happy periods, been one of incessant fraud and deception.

Friedrich August von Hayek.

After a big sell-off on the US CPI inflation data, it was a volatile reversal day in the US stock casinos. Yet another sign of a top forming?

Today it’s the turn of the ECB to cut its key interest rates and in the USA, the Producer Price Index of inflation.

If Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is continuing to sell out of banking stocks, raising almost 300 billion in cash to buy later after a crash, only a fool and his money would be a stock buyer here.

European markets poised to rally at the open, ahead of anticipated ECB rate cut

Published Thu, Sep 12 2024 12:38 AM EDT

LONDON — European stocks are expected to rally at the open Thursday as investors in the region await the latest monetary policy decision from the European Central Bank.

The U.K.’s FTSE index is seen opening 76 points higher at 8,267, Germany’s DAX up 159 points at 18,482, France’s CAC 40 up 64 points at 7,460 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 257 at 33,472, according to data from IG.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to slash rates again by 25 basis points on Thursday, a move that would mark the first cut since June, when it described the potential for a September reduction as “wide open.”

The ECB’s key interest rate — which helps to price all sorts of loans and mortgages across the bloc — is currently at 3.75% after years of aggressive hikes.

The ECB’s meeting comes just days ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17-18 meeting, at which it’s expected to begin its own rate-cutting cycle.

European investors are also digesting the latest consumer price index report from the U.S. that reflected a 0.2% increase in consumer prices in August, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.5% — its lowest level since February 2021.

Month-over-month core CPI — which does not include volatile food and energy prices — came out slightly hotter than expected, however. U.S. markets rose Wednesday as investors assessed what the data means for Fed policy.

U.S. stock futures inched lower overnight as investors braced themselves for more inflation and labor data, with the August producer price index due Thursday before jobless claims data. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate a rise of 0.2% last month in the headline and core readings, up from 0.1% and 0.0% previously.

Initial jobless claims data for the week ending Sept. 7 are also due, and expected to have slid to 225,000, down from 227,000 the previous week, according to Dow Jones.

There are no other major earnings or data releases in Europe on Thursday.

European markets: ECB rate cut in focus, U.S. inflation data reaction (cnbc.com)

S&P 500 rises, Nasdaq closes 2% higher in rebound from inflation report rout: Live updates

Updated Wed, Sep 11 2024 4:18 PM EDT

Stocks rose Wednesday in a bout of volatile trading, as investors weighed what the latest U.S. inflation data means for Federal Reserve policy. Tech shares led a rebound from steep session lows.

The S&P 500 gained 1.07% to close at 5,554.13. Wednesday marked the first time since October 2022 that the broad market index dropped 1% on an intraday basis and then closed higher by more than 1%.

The 30-stock Dow added 124.75 points, or 0.31%, to end at 40,861.71. At its low, the blue-chip index lost as much as 743.89 points. The Nasdaq Composite added 2.17%, wiping out its earlier losses to close at 17,395.53.

Investors picked up shares of mega-cap tech and semiconductor names in afternoon trading, boosting the Nasdaq as Nvidia jumped 8% and AMD added nearly 5%. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed about 5%.

Bank stocks, including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, also rebounded from earlier lows and ended the session with marginal gains.

Stocks initially tumbled after the core reading on the consumer price index — which strips out volatile food and energy categories — rose slightly more than expected. This dampened investor hopes for a half-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Traders are now pricing in an 85% chance that the central bank will approve a 25 basis-point interest rate reduction at its Sept. 17-18 meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure. Overall CPI, however, hit its lowest annualized level since February 2021.

More

Stock market news for September 11, 2024 (cnbc.com)

Stock futures inch lower as investors brace for more inflation and labor data: Live updates

Updated Thu, Sep 12 2024 8:30 PM EDT

U.S. stock futures inched lower Wednesday night as investors brace for more inflation and labor data, following a volatile session spurred by the release of the August consumer price index.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 30 points, or 0.07%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.1% and 0.18%, respectively.

Investors are coming off a choppy session, after a late-day advance in tech shares helped the major benchmarks rebound from their lows. The S&P 500 ended the day higher by 1.07%, even after falling more than 1% on an intraday basis — a first for the broader index since October 2022.

At the same time, the 30-stock Dow gained 124.75 points, or 0.31%, after losing as much as 743.89 points earlier in the session. The Nasdaq Composite closed 2.17% higher, making a comeback from a decline of more than 1%.

Stocks dropped earlier in the day when August’s consumer price index showed an uptick in core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. The reading spooked investors hoping for a half-percentage point cut from the Federal Reserve at its Sept. 17-18 meeting.

“The inflation report that we saw today is confirming a trend that we’ve acknowledged over the past couple of months, where now that the Fed is — and I think appropriately so — focused less on inflation and more on economic growth, that completely changes market reactivity,” Lauren Goodwin, chief market strategist at New York Life Investments, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Wednesday.

“It means that now good economic news — and I would include today’s inflation report as relatively good news, a little stronger than the markets were expecting — that’s going to be good news for the market,” Goodwin continued.

Wall Street is anticipating the release of the August producer price index on Thursday. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate a rise of 0.2% last month in the headline and core readings, up from 0.1% and 0.0% previously.

Initial jobless claims data for the week ending Sept. 7 is also on deck, and is expected to have slid to 225,000, down from 227,000 the previous week, according to Dow Jones.

On the earnings front, Kroger is slated to report results before the open on Thursday. Adobe will release its quarterly report after the close.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

US inflation plummets to 'new three-year lows': WSJ

September 11, 2024

Inflation was among the many topics that Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump debated on Tuesday night, September 10 at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, where the event was hosted by ABC news.

Inflation has often been described as one of Harris' vulnerabilities as a candidate, but the Democratic nominee vigorously defended the Biden Administration's economic record and argued that President Joe Biden was quite proactive in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic problems it created.

The morning after the debate, the Wall Street Journal's David Uberti reported on the state of inflation in the U.S. — stressing that inflation had "eased, in August, to new three-year lows."

Uberti reports, "The consumer-price index climbed 2.5 percent from a year earlier, according to the Labor Department, decreasing from 2.9 percent in July and extending its cooling streak to five months. Core inflation, a measure that excludes volatile food and energy costs, held roughly steady at 3.2 percent. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected overall prices to have risen 2.6 percent from a year ago, as well as a 3.2 percent increase in core prices."

Traders, according to Uberti, have "ramped up bets that" the U.S. Federal Reserve will lower interest rates "next week to kick off a widely anticipated rate-cutting cycle to lower borrowing costs across the economy."

In response to the news on inflation, CNBC's Carl Quintanilla tweeted that the U.S. had its "lowest annual headline inflation rate since Feb 2021."

On X, formerly Twitter, former National Economic Council Deputy Director Bharat Ramamurti posted, "The US has reached the end of the post-COVID global inflation surge. Thanks to Biden-Harris policies, it got through that surge with more economic growth and wage growth than any of its competitors, and with lower unemployment than at any time in the Obama and Bush presidencies."

In response to the news on inflation, CNBC's Carl Quintanilla tweeted that the U.S. had its "lowest annual headline inflation rate since Feb 2021."

On X, formerly Twitter, former National Economic Council Deputy Director Bharat Ramamurti posted, "The US has reached the end of the post-COVID global inflation surge. Thanks to Biden-Harris policies, it got through that surge with more economic growth and wage growth than any of its competitors, and with lower unemployment than at any time in the Obama and Bush presidencies."

US inflation plummets to 'new three-year lows': WSJ (msn.com)

If socialists understood economics, they wouldn't be socialist.

Friedrich August von Hayek.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Samsung Electronics plans global job cuts of up to 30% in some divisions: Reuters, citing sources

Published Wed, Sep 11 2024 9:27 PM EDT

Samsung Electronics, the world’s top maker of smartphones, TVs and memory chips, is cutting up to 30% of its overseas staff at some divisions, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

South Korea-based Samsung has instructed subsidiaries worldwide to reduce sales and marketing staff by about 15% and the administrative staff by up to 30%, two of the sources said.

The plan will be implemented by the end of this year and would impact jobs across the Americas, Europe, Asia and Africa, one person said. Six other people familiar with the matter also confirmed Samsung’s planned global headcount reduction.

It is not clear how many people would be let go and which countries and business units would be most affected.

The sources declined to be named because the scope and details of the job cuts remained confidential.

In a statement, Samsung said workforce adjustments conducted at some overseas operations were routine, and aimed at improving efficiency. It said there are no specific targets for the plans, adding that they are not impacting its production staff.

Samsung employed a total of 267,800 people as of the end of 2023, and more than half, or 147,000 employees, are based overseas, according to its latest sustainability report.

Manufacturing and development accounted for most of those jobs and sales and marketing staff was around 25,100, while 27,800 people worked in other areas, the report said.

More

Samsung Electronics plans global job cuts of up to 30% in some divisions (cnbc.com)

[UK] GDP unexpectedly stagnates in July following strong first half of 2024

Wednesday 11 September 2024 7:40 am

Economic growth came to a standstill in July, according to official estimates, in a sign that the UK’s surprisingly strong start to the year might have come to a halt.

New figures show that the UK economy stagnated month-on-month in July, falling short of the 0.2 per cent growth expected by economists.

The services sector was the only sector to record growth in July, expanding 0.1 per cent. The production sector, meanwhile, contracted 0.8 per cent while the construction sector fell 0. 4 per cent.

“July’s monthly services growth was led by computer programmers and health, which recovered from strike action in June. These gains were partially offset by falls for advertising companies, architects and engineers,” Liz Mckeown, ONS Director of Economic Statistics, said.

“Manufacturing fell, overall, with a particularly poor month for car and machinery firms, while construction also declined,” Mckeown continued.

The economy grew 0.5 per cent over the three months to July, largely due to strength in the services sector. Output expanded in 11 of the 14 subsectors measured, the ONS said.

The figures mean the UK has not expanded for the past two months, putting the economy on track for a weaker second half of the year.

The UK was the fastest-growing economy in the G7 in the first half of 2024, surprising many pundits who had expected another yet [year?] of relative stagnation.

GDP grew 0.6 per cent in the second quarter, having notched a 0.7 per cent expansion in the first three months of the year.

Most economists thought that the pace of growth would slow over the remainder of the year.

Despite falling short of consensus, Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, said the figures were “broadly in-keeping with expectations for growth to moderate”.

The UK is still on track to grow around 1.0 per cent in 2024, well ahead of the 0.3 per cent pencilled in by analysts last December.

Economic growth has been at the heart of Labour’s agenda, with Starmer claiming wealth creation is his “number one priority“.

Since entering office, ministers have announced ambitious plans to overhaul the planning regime as well as proposals to help the long-term sick back into work.

However, some economists are worried that the October Budget will hamstring economic performance, particularly if there are hefty tax increases.

“The government needs to be careful not to overcorrect with its narrative around tax rises and the potential this has to put off investment,” Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, said.

GDP unexpectedly stagnates in July following strong first half (cityam.com)

European Luxury Shares’ $240 Billion Rout Is Just the Beginning

Once seen as Europe’s answer to the US “Magnificent Seven” tech megacaps, shares in companies producing high-end clothing, handbags and jewellery are languishing.

08 September 2024

After enduring almost a quarter-trillion dollar hit to their market value in recent months, Europe’s luxury firms may see their stock-market clout wane further as China’s downturn worsens.

Once seen as Europe’s answer to the US “Magnificent Seven” tech megacaps, shares in companies producing high-end clothing, handbags and jewellery are languishing, sapped by a spending slump. Even more ominous are signs that China’s rich, who once flocked to upscale boutiques in Paris, Milan and Hong Kong, may not return, their appetite for pricey items extinguished by the economy’s downward spiral.

“This year is more volatile and more painful because it comes after this excessive growth,” Flavio Cereda, an investment manager at GAM UK Ltd. said, referring to the period immediately after the pandemic when consumers liberated from lockdowns splurged on shopping and travel.

For Britain’s iconic raincoat maker Burberry Group Plc, it’s culminating in ejection from London’s FTSE 100 stock index, with its market value down 70 percent in the past year. While it’s the only major brand to lose its index slot, an gauge of luxury shares compiled by Goldman Sachs has shed $240 billion in value from a March peak.

Gucci-owner Kering SA and Hugo Boss AG are the worst hit, shedding almost half their value in the past year. Kering, once a top 10 stock in France’s CAC 40 index, now ranks 23rd. And industry giant LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE, which was Europe’s largest company by market cap a year back, has slid to second place.

The deflation of the post-pandemic spending bubble was evident in recent earnings reports. Kering, Burberry and Hugo Boss issued profit warnings, while at LVMH, quarterly organic revenue at its crucial leather-goods unit grew just 1 percent, versus 21 percent a year earlier. Only brands catering to the ultra-wealthy, such as Hermès International SCA and Brunello Cucinelli SpA, escaped the full force of the earnings downturn.

----And newsflow around the fallout of China’s slowdown seems to back that verdict.

Tiffany & Co., LVMH’s premium jewellery brand, is seeking to halve the size of its flagship Shanghai outlet, Bloomberg reported. Hong Kong’s luxury malls, which once lured big-spending Chinese, are nearly empty. And in Switzerland, watchmakers are seeking state aid to counter dwindling exports.

More

European Luxury Shares’ $240 Billion Rout Is Just the Beginning | BoF (businessoffashion.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Scientists Say COVID-19 Lockdowns Prematurely Aged Teens Brains

 September 10, 2024 at 5:01 pm

COVID-19 lockdowns prematurely aged teenagers’ brains by years – particularly for girls, reveals new research.

According to the study, restrictive rules imposed to try to stop the spread of the virus during the pandemic accelerated the brain development of teenage girls by an average of 4.2 years and 1.4 years in boys.

Researchers believe girls suffered most because they felt particularly “isolated” from their friends during the pandemic.

The findings add to growing evidence that draconian lockdown measures – such as school closures – hurt the mental health of young people.

Scientists explained that adolescence is marked by dramatic changes in emotional, behavioral and social development.

It’s also a time when a sense of self-identity, self-confidence, and self-control are developed.

However, the pandemic slashed social interactions for teenagers and led to anxiety, depression, and stress – especially for girls.

The new research, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), shows that the pandemic also resulted in “unusually accelerated” brain maturation in adolescents—with the effect more pronounced in teenage girls.

Senior author Professor Patricia Kuhl of the University of Washington said: “We think of the COVID-19 pandemic as a health crisis, but we know that it produced other profound changes in our lives – especially for teenagers.”

She explained that brain maturation is measured by the thickness of the cerebral cortex, the outer layer of brain tissue.

The cerebral cortex naturally thins with age, even in teens.

But Kuhl said that chronic stress and adversity are known to accelerate cortical thinning, which is associated with an increased risk for the development of psychiatric and behavioral disorders.

More

Scientists Say COVID-19 Lockdowns Prematurely Aged Teens Brains – IJR

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market worth $120.9 billion by 2029- Exclusive Report by MarketsandMarkets™

11 Sep, 2024, 06:30 GMT

DELRAY BEACH, Fla., Sept. 11, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The report "Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market by Battery Chemistry (LFP, LCO, NMC, NCA, LMO), Material (Cathode, Anode, Electrolyte), Application (Portable Device, Electric Vehicle, Industrial, Power Tool, Medical Device), & Region - Global Forecast to 2029", is projected to grow from USD 41.9 billion in 2024 to USD 120.9 billion by 2029, at a CAGR of 23.6% during the forecast period. The lithium-ion battery materials market refers to the industry that manufactures and supplies necessary components for lithium-ion batteries, which are important for a variety of applications due to their high energy density and efficiency. This market includes a variety of materials such as cathodes, anodes, electrolytes, and separators, all of which contribute to the functionality of lithium-ion batteries. These batteries have numerous uses, including portable electronics such as smartphones, laptops, and tablets, as well as electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems that promote renewable energy integration.

Download PDF Brochure: https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/pdfdownloadNew.asp?id=23313535 

The electric vehicles segment is expected to account for the largest share of the lithium-ion battery materials market, by application, during the forecast period, in terms of value.

By application, the electric vehicles segment is estimated to have the largest market share by value. Due to the growing global demand for cleaner transportation alternatives, the electric vehicles (EVs) segment is predicted to account for most of the lithium-ion battery materials market in terms of value. Electric vehicles rely largely on lithium-ion batteries for energy storage, as they provide high energy density, long range, and rapid charging periods, all of which are critical to vehicle performance. As governments throughout the world impose stringent emissions rules and provide incentives to promote electric mobility, the car industry is rapidly moving from internal combustion engines to electrically powered vehicles. This shift increases demand for lithium-ion batteries, which raises the demand for high-value minerals including lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite, and this in turn drives the market for lithium-ion battery materials.

By battery chemistry, the lithium nickel manganese cobalt segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period in terms of value.

Based on battery chemistry, the lithium nickel manganese cobalt segment is estimated to account for the largest share of the market during the forecast period.  The lithium nickel manganese cobalt sector is expected to account for the largest share of the lithium-ion battery materials market due to its superior balance of energy density, power, and lifespan, making it the preferred choice for a wide range of applications. These batteries are highly sought after in the electric vehicle (EV) market, where they provide an ideal balance of performance, safety, and cost-effectiveness, allowing for longer driving ranges and faster charging times. The combination of nickel, manganese, and cobalt in the cathode material improves battery performance and stability, making this battery chemistry suitable for both automotive and energy storage applications. As demand for electric vehicles develops due to worldwide efforts to decrease carbon emissions, so does the demand for high-performance lithium nickel manganese cobalt batteries, adding to the segment's dominance in the lithium-ion battery materials market in terms of value.

More

Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market worth $120.9 billion by 2029- Exclusive Report by MarketsandMarkets™ (prnewswire.co.uk)

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

We can guarantee cash benefits as far out and at whatever size you like, but we cannot guarantee their purchasing power. 

Alan Greenspan.


No comments:

Post a Comment