Baltic
Dry Index. 1692 -36 Brent Crude 80.71
Spot Gold 2453 US 2 Year Yield 4.08 +0.14
Mr Speaker, I withdraw my statement that half the cabinet are asses - half the cabinet are not asses.
Benjamin Disraeli.
In the global stock casinos, party on. The punch bowl maybe dry, but who cares, the Fed and the other central banks are busy filling up more punch bowls to be brought out next month.
Who cares that there re growing signs of a new recession getting underway from America, to Germany, to China, South Korea and Japan.
Don’t confuse me with the facts, party on.
If Warren Buffett is selling and waiting for a buying opportunity after a recession crash, I won’t bet against him.
More exit selling rally in the stock casinos.
Japan’s Nikkei rises 3% to lead gains in Asia
after Wall Street rallies on easing recession fears
Published Thu, Aug 15 2024 7:45 PM EDT
Japan stocks led gains in Asia on Friday
and were set for their best week in four years, with the Nikkei 225 up over 3%,
after Wall Street rallied overnight as fresh economic data eased recessionary
fears.
U.S. retail sales increased 1%
in July, far surpassing Dow Jones estimate of a 0.3% uptick. Weekly jobless
claims also fell for the week.
“Today’s solid retail sales and claims
data is a reminder that the sky is not falling on the U.S. economy,” Wolfe
Research chief economist Stephanie Roth wrote on Thursday. “Yes, economic
momentum has cooled, but we don’t appear to be headed for recession
imminently.”
In Asia, Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports in July grew 15.7% year on
year, having declined 8.8% in June and massively beating Reuters poll
expectations of a 1.2% growth.
Total trade grew by 13.7% in July 2024,
building on the 1.2% increase in June, as both exports and imports increased.
Japan’s broader index, Topix, gained over
2%.
South Korea’s Kospi returned from a public
holiday to trade 1.75% higher, while the small-cap Kosdaq climbed 0.94%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 saw a
smaller gain of 1.18%. On Friday, Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michelle
Bullock said while markets had brought forward their expectations of a rate cut
following inflation outcomes in the U.S. and Australia, it was still “premature” to think about rate cuts.
She pointed out that inflation is still
“too high” and is not expected to be back in the top of the RBA’s target band
of 2% to 3% until the end of next year.
“Circumstances may change, of course, and
the outlook is uncertain. But based on what the Board knows at present, it does
not expect that it will be in a position to cut rates in the near term.”
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1.69%,
while mainland China’s CSI 300 was up marginally.
Taiwan and Hong Kong’s second-quarter GDP
data will be out after market hours.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped
1.39%, and the S&P 500 closed
up 1.61% for its sixth straight gain. The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped
2.34%.
Asia stock markets: Wall Street rally; South Korea, Singapore trade data (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street
heads for a winning week
Updated Thu, Aug 15 2024 6:57 PM EDT
Stock futures are near flat Thursday night
as investors looked toward the end of a week that has ushered in a recovery
rally.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added
52 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each also inched
higher by 0.1%.
Those moves come after a strong
day on Wall Street. The Dow gained more than 500 points on Thursday,
rising more than 1% along with the broad S&P 500. The Nasdaq Composite
jumped more than 2% as technology shares led the ascent.
Thursday marked the sixth straight winning
day for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. With respective gains of more than 3%
and 5% on the week, both are on track to notch their biggest weekly gains since
November. The Dow has climbed more than 2% this week, which would also mark its
best performance this year.
Retail sales data released Thursday came
in much
stronger than economists expected, while weekly jobless claims fell.
Both offered evidence that recession fears, which helped spark a global
sell-off earlier this month, were overblown.
These stats came after inflation readings released
earlier this week bolstered hopes that a soft landing scenario was still
possible. These data points also supported the expectation that the Federal
Reserve will begin cutting interest rates at its next policy meeting.
“Investors have been looking for
additional reasons to continue the road to recovery,” said Sam Stovall, chief
investment strategist at CFRA Research. “With the recent, better-than-expected
economic and employment data, now investors are picking up the pace.”
Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street heads for a winning week (cnbc.com)
In other news.
Iron Ore Hits Lowest Since 2022 as Steel Crisis
Rattles Market
- Futures
drop below $94 as China steelmakers reduce production
- Top
mill China Baowu sounds alarm about industry’s troubles
August 15, 2024 at 2:48 AM GMT+1
Updated on August 15, 2024 at 10:13 AM GMT+1
Iron ore hit the lowest level since
2022 on concern that global supply is running ahead of demand, with China’s
steelmakers mired in a crisis and cutting output just as major miners boost
exports.
Futures sank for a fourth day in
Singapore, falling below $94 a ton, as data from China showed mills
reduced steel production to about 83 million tons last month,
9% lower than a year earlier. The country is the largest importer
of seaborne iron ore, and sets the tone in the global market.
Iron ore is one of the year’s biggest
losers in commodities, with benchmark prices down by about a third. The
struggles facing mills in China were thrown into sharp relief this week
as China Baowu Steel Group Corp. — the world’s largest
producer — sounded the alarm about an industry crisis as product prices
collapse. The nation’s economy has slowed this year, with officials battling to
address a drawn-out property crisis that’s hurt steel demand.
Futures retreated by as much as 3.1% to
$92.65 a ton — the lowest intraday price since November 2022 — and traded at
$93.25 at 5:12 p.m. in Singapore. The recent sell-off has pummeled miners’
shares, with stock in BHP Group Ltd. down by more than a fifth in Australia
this year.
More
Iron Ore Hits Lowest Since 2022 as Steel Crisis Rattles Market - Bloomberg
China's home-price slump deepens to new 9-year low
despite policy support
By Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo
August 15, 2024 5:38 AM GMT+1
BEIJING, Aug 15 (Reuters) - China's new
home prices fell at their fastest pace in nine years in July, as a slew of
support policies failed to stabilise prices and restore confidence in the
struggling property sector.
The prolonged housing market slump has
weighed heavily on the world's second-largest economy and its consumers, with
analysts saying Beijing's 5% GDP target for 2024 may be too ambitious even as
other economic gauges have steadied.
New home prices fell 4.9% from a year
earlier - the sharpest drop since June 2015 and deeper than a 4.5% slide in
June, Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data
showed. Earlier, Reuters also reported home prices fell 5.0% due to an
automated rounding off of figures.
"It is increasingly looking like the
property market will continue to need more policy support to establish a
bottom," analysts at ING said in a note.
Beijing has been intensifying efforts to
support the sector, which at its peak accounted for a quarter of the economy,
including reducing mortgage rates and lowering home buying costs.
Policies play a certain role in lifting
the market, but the external downturn has limited the effects of these
policies, said Song Hongwei, research director of Tongce Research Institute, a
real estate research company.
In monthly terms, new home prices were
down for the 13th straight month, falling 0.7%, and matching the pace of
decline in June.
Among 70 cities surveyed by NBS, only two
- Shanghai and Xian - reported a rise in new home prices in monthly terms, and
only Shanghai registered a price rise in the resale home market.
In late July, China's top decision-making
body, the Politburo, reiterated the
country's commitment to supporting the completion of unfinished projects and
turning unsold apartments into affordable housing.
In separate data on Thursday,
property sales by floor
area in January-July fell 18.6% from a year earlier, compared with a 19.0%
slump in January-June.
More
China's home-price
slump deepens to new 9-year low despite policy support | Reuters
Alibaba earnings miss expectations despite cloud
acceleration
Published Thu, Aug 15 2024 6:43 AM EDT
Alibaba missed
top- and bottom-line expectations for the June quarter of 2024 as it continues
to face headwinds in its core e-commerce business amid rising competition and a
cautious Chinese consumer.
Here’s how Alibaba did in the June quarter
versus LSEG estimates:
- Revenue: 243.24
billion Chinese yuan ($34.01 billion) versus 249.05 billion yuan expected.
- Net
income: 24.27
billion yuan versus 26.91 billion yuan expected.
The company’s shares were up about 2% in
morning trading.
Revenue was up 4% year on year, while net
income dropped 29%. Alibaba said the net income fall was “primarily due to a
decrease in income from operations” and “increase in impairment” from its
investments.
Alibaba has been looking to reignite
growth after a tumultuous 2023, when it carried out its largest-ever corporate
structure overhaul. This was followed by high-profile management changes,
with Eddie Wu taking over the reins as chief executive in September.
The e-commerce giant has been grappling
with a cautious Chinese consumer, along with increased competition from rivals
such as JD.com and Temu
owner PDD.
Since taking over the reins, Wu has been
trying to get Alibaba’s core China e-commerce business back on a stable
footing. It’s currently going through a transition phase where the company is
planning to put more focus on third-party merchants selling via its platforms —
Taobao and Tmall — in China, while reducing reliance on its direct sales
business.
Wu has previously said the company intends
to release new monetization features for its e-commerce platforms that should
return the Taobao and Tmall business back to growth toward the latter half of
2025.
In the June quarter, sales from the Taobao
and Tmall Group, which represents Alibaba’s China e-commerce business, fell 1%
year on year to 113.37 billion yuan.
More
Alibaba earnings miss expectations despite cloud acceleration (cnbc.com)
Gas and grain ships shun Panama Canal after
drought disruption
Shipbrokers say commodities traders have grown accustomed to longer routes
14 August 2024
The Panama Canal is struggling to persuade traders in liquefied natural gas and
food commodities such as grains to return to the trade route after they were
forced out by a historic drought last year.
The 110-year-old canal, through which goods ranging from US LNG to Latin American crops have for decades reached the rest of the world, was forced to cap crossings last July because of a lack of rainfall needed to operate its locks. It hopes to return close to capacity in September after months of higher rainfall.
But only 13 LNG ships crossed the canal
last month, fewer than half the number in July 2022, according to shipping
analysis group Marine Traffic. Transits by dry bulk ships also dropped 35 per
cent to 129 over the same period.
Officials in Panama have shrugged off the
impact, as other types of ships, such as container vessels, used the waterway
at normal levels and the canal’s income rose thanks to intense bidding for a
limited number of slots.
But the development highlights how increasing supply chain disruptions, including those linked to climate change, threaten to reshape and drive up the cost of global trade.
It comes amid broader uncertainty over the future of the canal — an important
source of income for the Central American nation that handles about 5 per cent
of global maritime trade — as officials grapple with lower rainfall and local
demands to protect drinking water supplies.
Last summer’s drought was blamed on the natural weather phenomenon El Niño, but rising temperatures are expected to continue to affect water supplies.
Roar Adland, head of research at shipbroker SSY, said the canal was simply “a
less attractive option than in the past” for lower-value goods, as it struggled
to offer the same cost and time savings as before.
Because the canal has forced all customers
to pre-book slots since the drought, businesses faced “an extra cost and a loss
of flexibility [compared with] the past when you could just show up and wait in
a queue,” he added.
“This may mean structurally lower transits for the kind of low-value,
time-insensitive cargoes typically transported by [dry bulk ships].”
At
its peak, the canal allowed upwards of 36 vessels to cross per day, but a lack
of rainfall forced restrictions that pushed the number down to 20 in January
this year.
More
Gas and grain ships shun Panama Canal after drought disruption
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
UK
economy grows 0.6 per cent in second quarter, in line with expectations
Thursday
15 August 2024 7:33 am
The
UK economy grew in line with expectations in the second quarter of 2024, as it
continued to bounce back
from a shallow recession.
Britain’s
gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.6 per cent in the three months to June
compared to the previous quarter, according to data from the Office for
National Statistics (ONS).
The
figure matched economists’ forecasts and marked a slight slowdown on the 0.7
per cent expansion seen in the first quarter.
Growth
in the second quarter was driven by the key services sector, which expanded 0.8
per cent, while production and construction both contracted 0.1 per cent.
On
a monthly basis, the economy showed no growth in June – in line with
expectations – following a 0.4 per cent expansion in May. June saw improvements
in manufacturing output offset by a slowdown in construction and contraction in
services.
“The
UK economy has now grown strongly for two quarters, following the weakness we
saw in the second half of last year,” said ONS director of economic statistics
Liz McKeown.
“Growth
across the three months was led by the service sector, where scientific
research, the IT industry and legal services all did well.
“In
June growth was flat with services falling, due to a weak month for health,
retailing and wholesaling, offset by widespread growth in manufacturing.”
Real
GDP per head, commonly used to measure average living standards, increased by
0.3 per cent in the second quarter, just half the headline growth rate and 0.1
per cent lower than the same quarter last year.
Thursday’s
data is among a raft of economic
figures released this week that will provide key indicators for
Bank of England policymakers as they decide whether to cut interest rates
in September.
ONS
numbers published on Wednesday showed inflation moved
way from the Bank’s two per cent target to hit 2.2 per cent in July – the
first increase this year but below economists’ expectations of 2.3 per cent.
On
Tuesday, data showed unemployment
fell unexpectedly in the three months to June while a slowdown in wage
growth to its lowest level in more than two years added to signs that the jobs
market is cooling.
UK economy grows 0.6 per cent in second quarter, in line with expectations (cityam.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
More vaccine promotion but no vitamin D promotion. Cui bono?
New
Covid surge sees 30% increase in cases and 26% increase in deaths
15
August 2024
The
number of new cases of Covid surged 30% in four weeks and the number of deaths
surged 26% month on month, according to a new report from the World Health
Organisation. The WHO has issued an update on the rising number of global Covid
cases amid fears of a new wave sparked by emerging variants.
Globally,
the JN.1 is now the most reported variant, now found in 135 countries,
accounting for 25.7% of samples tested. KP.3.1.1 and LB.1 have shown an
increasing prevalence globally. WHO says that in the latest four months covered
by the report, there were more than 186,000 new Covid cases reported across 96
countries and more than 2,800 new fatalities reported across 35 countries.
As
of July 21, 2024, over 775 million confirmed cases and more than seven million
deaths have been reported globally since the beginning of pandemic. From the
latest data, more than 23,000 new hospitalizations and more than 600 new ICU
admissions were reported. That was an overall increase of 11% and 3% in new
hospitalizations and new ICU admissions.
According
to the UK Health Security Agency, there were 2,957 new cases of Covid detected
in England in the latest week reported, along with 174 more deaths and 2,695
more people admitted to hospital with Covid.
---- Dr
Mary Ramsay, Director of Public Health Programmes at the UK Health Security
Agency, said: "Our on-going surveillance shows that COVID-19 continues to
cause severe illness, putting many in hospital, particularly older people and
those with underlying medical conditions. But it also shows that the autumn
vaccines are effective in helping to give added protection to those most at
risk – almost halving the likelihood of hospitalisation from the virus for a
few months following vaccination and over the winter period.
"I
urge everyone who is eligible to take up the offer of a vaccine as soon as
possible once invited – it will help improve your immunity to COVID-19, which
does wane over time."
UKHSA
surveillance data on last autumn’s programme showed that those who received a
vaccine were around 45% less likely to be admitted to hospital with COVID-19
from two weeks following vaccination with protection lasting for around 4
months, compared to those who did not receive one. NHS England will
confirm details on how and when eligible people can access the autumn vaccine
in the coming weeks.
New Covid surge sees 30% increase in cases and 26% increase in deaths (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Deliveroo riders to learn about e-bike fire
risks
13 August 2024
Deliveroo
riders are to be taught about the fire risk surrounding e-bikes.
The food delivery riders, who often use e-bikes as
part of their work, will be given safety information by the London Fire Brigade
(LFB) at a special event at Shoreditch Fire Station on Tuesday.
They will also be shown a burnt out e-bike and
e-scooter after they caught fire.
The LFB says e-bikes and
e-scooters are the capital's fastest growing fire risk.
Paul Bedford, director of policy and sustainability
at Deliveroo, said: "The safety of our riders is a top priority and we’re
proud to partner with the London Fire Brigade on its #ChargeSafe campaign.
"We support riders who want to use sustainable
vehicles whilst riding with us, but it’s so important those who sell this
equipment ensure it meets the highest safety standards."
He added that the events with LFB, which have also
been held in Ealing, Wimbledon and Marble Arch, were a "fantastic
platform" to engage with riders about using e-bikes "safely and
responsibly".
In September last year, a food delivery rider was seriously
injured when his electric bike caught fire
while charging in a bedroom in Highgate.
LFB reported a 78% increase
in e-bike fires in 2023 compared with 2022.
The brigade said there were 155 e-bike fires and 28
e-scooter fires recorded last year, and so far this year, there had been about
100 e-bike and e-scooter fires - an average of one fire every two days in
London.
On 26 July, 10 people, including a baby, escaped a
house fire in Ilford that was believed to have been caused by the failure of an
e-bike battery.
Part of the ground floor, an internal staircase and
most of the first floor of the mid-terraced house was damaged by fire.
The LFB recommends people take safety measures
including:
·
Not converting pedal bikes into e-bikes using DIY
kits bought online, as they "can be very dangerous" and "pose a
higher risk of fire"
·
Using a professional or competent person to carry
out any bike conversion and to buy a new battery - not a second-hand one - from
a reputable seller
·
Using the correct charger, do not over-charge the
battery and "never charge an e-bike or e-scooter unattended or when you're
sleeping"
·
Not charging e-bikes on an escape route, such as in
a hallway
More
Deliveroo riders taught by London Fire Brigade about e-bike risks - BBC
News
Fire started
by 'catastrophic' failure of lithium battery destroys Wembley house
9
August 2024
A
house was destroyed and two vehicles damaged damaged after a fire broke out in
north-west London on
Thursday night.
Firefighters
have urged Londoners to make sure they have working smoke alarms fitted in
their homes following the blaze in Sudbury Avenue, Wembley.
It is
thought there were no smoke detectors at the two-storey property.
The
fire is believed to have been accidental and caused by the “catastrophic”
failure of a lithium battery in a power bank, London Fire
Brigade said on Friday as it warned people to take care when
charging batteries.
Around
60 firefighters in eight fire engines were scrambled to Sudbury Avenue on
Thursday night, where they spent two hours fighting the blaze.
A 32m
ladder was also deployed to the scene to fight the fire from height.
London
Fire Brigade (LFB) received its first call about the fire shortly after 3.30pm.
It was under control by around 5.35pm.
The
ground floor, first floor, and roof space of the house were all damaged, along
with two vehicles that had been parked outside.
Nobody
is believed to have been injured.
"This
incident also shows just how important it is to have working smoke alarms
fitted on every level of your home,” said an LFB spokesperson on Friday.
“Smoke
alarms give the earliest possible warning when a fire starts and we would urge
everyone to make sure they have one fitted in every room where a fire can start
except kitchens or bathrooms where heat alarms are more appropriate.”
They
added: “Lithium batteries are susceptible to failure if incorrect chargers are
used, so it’s important to always use the correct charger for the product and
buy an official one from a reputable seller,
"You
should unplug your charger when you have finished using it and we would advise
not to leave it unattended or charging while people are asleep.
“Batteries
can present a fire risk if they’re over-charged, short circuited, submerged in
water or damaged, so it’s really important to protect them against being
damaged too.
Fire started by
'catastrophic' failure of lithium battery destroys Wembley house (msn.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and another fantasy
week for the stock casinos. Tomorrow will be just like today, which was like
yesterday. But will it?
This is a year of global elections,
culminating in the big one in America on November 5th. Governments
everywhere have been goosing the numbers, bribing the voters, spinning like
gyros. With insiders and Warren Buffet selling
out into the fantasy rallies, what comes next is likely the hangover. Have a
great weekend everyone.
The
world is governed by very different personages from what is imagined by those
who are not behind the scenes.
Benjamin Disraeli.
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