London Irvine Report: After The Crash, The Bounce. Recession Over! Not Really.

Baltic Dry Index. 1685 +08 Brent Crude 76.78

Spot Gold 2395 US 2 Year Yield 3.99 +0.10

Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

Was that it? Are we there yet? Is crash 2024 already over? Has the US recession already passed?

Well maybe and yes say the Wall Street stock promoting shills, who largely make their money fleecing Wall Street’s sheep.

Not so fast, thinks this commodities and stocks dinosaur, involved in the commodity and stock casinos since 1968.

Stocks, says Bloomberg without any proof, just lost over six trillion dollars! Add in global losses in cryptoland and commodities led by oil and precious metals, and total losses from recent turmoil and panic, might well be approaching 10 trillion US dollars.

Someone, (many,) somewhere took a massive hit, a hit even in relatively new one day settlement US stocks, massive losses that probably won’t show up until month-end, if not hidden legally or more likely illegally. There’s now a new Lehman out there.

Fools rush in, goes the old tried and true saying, and any new US and global recession is far from over and only just beginning.

The global stock panic may have ended for now, but what if the great AI bubble bursts the way the great EV bubble did for autos?

Asia-Pacific markets extend gains; China’s exports miss expectations, imports pick up in July

Published Tue, Aug 6 2024 7:39 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets extended gains on Wednesday, tracking Wall Street benchmarks that snapped a three-day losing streak overnight.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.76%, while the S&P 500 rose 1.04%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1.03% to close at 16,366.85.

Sentiment was boosted by a rebound in Japanese stocks Tuesday that saw the Nikkei 225 post its best day since October 2008, soaring 10.2%. On Monday, the index suffered its worst session since 1987 amid recession fears, losing 12.4%.

On Wednesday, the Nikkei rose above 2.8% while Japan’s broad-based Topix gained over 4% in choppy trading.

Japan’s heavyweight trading houses extended gains to a second day, with Marubeni jumping 11% and Softbank Group Corp up 8%. Canon Inc lead Japanese tech stocks gaining over 12%.

In a speech on Wednesday, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi said that “the Bank needs to maintain monetary easing with the current policy interest rate for the time being, with developments in financial and capital markets at home and abroad being extremely volatile.”

Japan’s Ministry of Finance disclosed on the same day that it conducted a record single-day yen-buying intervention on April 29, selling 5.92 trillion yen ($40.32 billion) worth of dollars to combat the falling yen. It further sold 3.87 trillion yen worth of dollars on May 1, ministry data showed.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up over 1%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was up 0.2% after Chinese trade figures were released.

Customs data showed on Wednesday that China’s imports in July grew faster-than-expected, while export growth missed forecasts.

Exports in U.S. dollar terms rose by 7% for the month compared to a year ago, missing economists’ expectations for a 9.7% increase. The July growth was also slower than June’s increase of 8.6%.

Meanwhile, U.S. dollar-denominated imports rose by 7.2%, far more than the economist’s forecast of 3.5%. In June, imports had unexpectedly fallen 2.3% amid weak domestic demand.

South Korea’s Kospi rose over 2.5% while the Kosdaq gained over 2.6%.

Samsung Electronics spiked about 4.5% after Reuters reported that Samsung’s 8-layer HBM3E chips had cleared tests by American chip major Nvidia for use in its artificial intelligence processors.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.6% in trading.

Asia markets live updates: China trade data in focus (cnbc.com)

European markets set for strong rebound, encouraged by Wall Street rally

Updated Wed, Aug 7 2024 12:31 AM EDT

LONDON — European stocks are expected to rebound at the open on Wednesday as global markets look to rally after a rout on Monday.

The U.K.’s FTSE index is expected to open 102 points higher at 8,120, Germany’s DAX up 208 points at 17,526, France’s CAC 40 up 104 points at 7,220 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 437 points at 31,670, according to data from IG.

Regional markets have seesawed since sharp global market declines on Monday; on Tuesday, European opened higher but turned lower later in a choppy trading session.

However, Wall Street’s rebound on Tuesday, which broke a three-day stretch of losses, is helping to lift global sentiment. Asia-Pacific markets were up overnight, while U.S. stock futures were higher on Tuesday evening.

What to look out for in Europe today

European stocks are expected to rebound at the open on Wednesday. Here are the opening calls:

On Wednesday, earnings are expected from Maersk, Novo Nordisk, Commerzbank, Siemens Energy, Continental, Puma, Illimity, Ahold Delhaize, ABN AMRO, Legal & General, Glencore and WPP.

European data releases include the U.K.’s Halifax House Price Index and German industrial production and trade balance figures.

European markets live updates: stocks, Commerzbank, Maersk earnings (cnbc.com)

A ‘Textbook Turnaround Tuesday’ Doesn’t Mean Meltdown Is Over

Tue, Aug 6, 2024, 9:51 AM GMT+1

Turnaround Tuesday — when markets rebound from a selloff at the start of the week — is an opportunity that shows up time and again in the data. The bad news is such recoveries don’t guarantee a bottom has been reached.

The numbers support the thesis. Prior to this week, the S&P 500 had fallen on a consecutive Thursday, Friday and Monday a total of 582 times and the subsequent Tuesday delivered an average gain of 0.2% — which works out to 50% on an annualized basis, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bloomberg macro strategist Cameron Crise.

When losses exceeded 1% on each of the previous three sessions — as they did this past week — the Tuesday gain rises to an average 0.63%.

A ‘Textbook Turnaround Tuesday’ Doesn’t Mean Meltdown Is Over (yahoo.com)

Big Tech Traders Struggle to Find Reasons to Buy This Dip

Tue, Aug 6, 2024, 3:05 PM GMT+1

(Bloomberg) -- For months investors have faced a dilemma — pay through the nose for technology giants trading at eye-watering multiples, or wait for a cheaper entry point and risk missing out on the year’s biggest bull run.

Those who chose to sit on the sidelines got a big opportunity to pounce Monday, when the Nasdaq 100 Index extended a three-day slump into the double digits at its lowest point. But only a minority took the chance to load up on shares of Nvidia Corp., Apple Inc. and other Big Tech names, with many traders unconvinced that the selloff is over.

“I’m waiting for a better opportunity to buy,” said Dan Cook, chief strategy officer with Apex Trader Funding. “I want to see an indication that the pressure has relieved a bit.”

It was a sentiment echoed by numerous investors amid growing fears of a US recession and concerns that heavy spending on artificial intelligence is not yet paying off. While most said they were optimistic over the long-run, few said they were diving headlong into the selloff.

“Until we get the next positive driver, the path of least resistance could be down,” Cook added.

The Nasdaq 100 Index rose 0.4% on Tuesday and remains about 13% below a recent peak.

Where that driver will come from, however, remains unclear. Six of the Magnificent Seven tech companies that have fueled much of this year’s gains have already reported earnings, leaving traders waiting several weeks before AI-darling Nvidia reports on Aug. 28. What’s more, in the wake of last week’s Federal Reserve meeting in which policymakers stood pat, the next gathering won’t be until September.

Big Tech Traders Struggle to Find Reasons to Buy This Dip (yahoo.com)

Get ready for nasty layoffs and say goodbye to the 4-day workweek

August 6, 2024

What if Saturday was the new Friday?

It's a troubling thought, to be sure, but a longer workweek is already a reality for some workers. Greece has allowed some industries to move to a 48-hour workweek to bump productivity. And South Korean companies, such as Samsung, are telling some execs to also show up on Saturday or Sunday to help boost the company's business.

Now, with economic alarm bells going off in the US, some workers pining for less time on the job may have to keep dreaming.

And that may not be the worst of it: Employees who'd hoped to stay in or land remote roles may find that harder to pull off. But perhaps the biggest threat to the rank and file is layoffs. Jittery CEOs eager to please Wall Street — and their boards — could decide to make the kind of sweeping cuts that Intel recently announced.

The weaker-than-expected July jobs report, which is spooking investors, could give some employers cover to step back from a shorter week, remote work, and other measures aimed at improving employee well-being, labor-market experts told Business Insider.

Peter Cappelli, a professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, said there was a perception that some employers had used layoffs as a cudgel to pull workers back into the office. And he said bosses could use the latest headlines about the economy as a fresh reason to get tough with workers — even if business is still doing OK.

"It's not about the reality as much as the perception," Cappelli told BI.

He said that while many workers in recent years gained some leverage, employers had still held most of the power outside a few exceptions, such as retail workers toward the end of pandemic lockdowns.

"Employees never really had much of an upper hand in the job market," Cappelli said.

Workers could feel as if they have even less power if bosses' worries about the economy make them less charitable toward their employees.

Some big-name businesses report that inflation is pinching consumers to the point that some are cutting back on their lattes and booze.

Starbucks said last week that traffic to its shops had slumped — especially among customers who weren't regulars — and CEO Laxman Narasimhan pointed to "a challenging consumer environment." The liquor giant Diageo posted its first slide in annual sales since 2020.

It's the kind of thing that could make an employer less inclined to try something new — such as a four-day workweek.

Get ready for nasty layoffs and say goodbye to the 4-day workweek (msn.com)

This is the way things are, and the Game has been so successful that, like everything, it will get more and more successful until it stops being successful.

George Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money Game. 1968.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Economics exists to make astrology look respectable.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

Eurozone on the brink as Brexit Britain smashes Germany and France in key metric

August 6, 2024

The UK economy has been outstripping both France and Germany as Brexit Britain experiences a demands boom in the service sector, new data has shown.

Following the Labour Party's win in the general election last month, British companies have reported a surge in new clients and contracts - the fastest page recorded since May 2023.

According to the S&P Global UK purchasing manager's index (PMI), Britain's new business index increased from 51.6 in June to 54.9 in July as new clients from Europe, North America and Asia flooded in.

The PMI also found that confidence in UK business hit a five-month high after the election of Sir Keir Starmer brought in a bigger degree of certainty over government policy.

In the meantime, France and Germany have experienced a considerable slowdown in their activities. France's services index rose to 50.1 - just above the 50 no-change benchmark. In Germany, the services index cooled from 53.1 in June to 52.5 in July.

The disparity between Brexit Britain and the Eurozone's two biggest economies suggests the UK could be spared the worst in the event of a global economic slowdown.

On Monday, stock markets worldwide collapsed amid fears the United States could be headed for a recession after the Federal Reserve delayed cutting interest rates.

Confidence in French business hit its lowest level this year as companies noted the impact of the Olympic Games would soon wane and foreign investors would likely shift their focus.

Germany also experienced a considerable confidence drop turning into a "new drag" for the Eurozone.

Economist Dr Cyrus de la Rubia told The Telegraph there's a higher risk now for Germany to head into recession.

De la Rubia noted Berlin requires consistent growth in services to push back on the impact the downturn in manufacturing is having on the country.

He added: "Growth could keep slowing down in the next few months.

"New business only grew a little in July, and outstanding business has been dropping almost continuously since mid-2023.

"If the service sector stalls, the whole economy could slip into a recession because manufacturing continues to shrink sharply."

Eurozone on the brink as Brexit Britain smashes Germany and France in key metric (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Ethnicity, race and health equity: 3 lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic

August 5, 2024

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the critical need for robust and equitable public health systems in Canada that address the population’s diverse needs. One of the most glaring issues during the pandemic was the lack of standardized definitions and consistent data collection methods regarding ethnicity and race within the health system. This gap was particularly evident in the discrepancies between federal and provincial systems.

During the pandemic, timely and accurate data on COVID-19 infectivity rates among different ethnic and racialized groups were insufficient. This hindered efforts to identify hotspots and effectively prioritize increased opportunities for testing and vaccinations.

The absence of such data reflects a broader issue: the need for structured and formalized data collection practices for public health purposes that do not depend on provincial priorities.

Currently, data collection varies across regions. Public health systems often do not collect self-reported ethnicity and race in a standardized and safe manner. They may not have digitized vaccine records, and often lack access to comprehensive health-care system data.

To be prepared for future epidemics, these gaps in the public health system must be addressed. As physicians and research experts we suggest the following “prescription,” which includes a three-pronged strategy.

First, provincial governments and public health organizations should begin routine collection of key demographic characteristics, including ethnicity and race, to identify hotspots — communities that have a higher caseload — of preventable infectious diseases. These data are essential for guiding evidence-based decision-making and improving public health responses.

At the federal level, the Disaggregated Data Action Plan (DDAP) aims to improve data collection from diverse populations and enable intersectional assessments considering sex/gender, ethnicity and race, and socioeconomic status. Collaboration between Statistics Canada, provincial and territorial governments is crucial to address data gaps, uncover health inequity, and inform policy and research priorities.

Ethnicity, race and health equity: 3 lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Revolutionary grid-scale wave energy generator deployed in Hawaii

By David Szondy July 26, 2024

Ocean Energy has deployed its 826-tonne wave energy converter buoy OE-35 at the US Navy's Wave Energy Test Site off the coast of the island of Oahu ahead of it being hooked up to Hawaii's electricity grid.

Measuring 125 x 59 ft (38 x 18 m) with a draft of 31 ft (9 m), the OE-35 was already a familiar sight in Kaneohe Bay on the Windward side of Oahu. Fixed just north of Mōkapu Peninsula, which is home to a US Marine Corps base that I became very familiar with years ago when its F-18 fighters used to go blasting over my anchored boat in the early morning.

The system has not only been tested in Hawaii, but also in Scotland as part of a US$12-million project funded by the US Department of Energy's office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy and the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI). With a potential output of 1.25 MW, OE-35 harnesses energy from the waves using a remarkable double-flow air system.

Some wave power systems work by using passing waves to compress a column of air that drives a turbine as the wave passes and the air expands. However, these usually work like a piston engine, with a power stroke followed by a dead period while air is vented and the system resets itself in anticipation of the next wave.

OE-35 is different in that it uses a turbine that works on the principle of the Wells turbine that was invented by Alan Arthur Wells of Queen's University Belfast in the late 1970s. This is a low-pressure air turbine that rotates continuously in one direction independent of the direction of the air flow. In other words, as the wave compresses the air in three chambers inside the buoy, the turbine spins. Then the air expands and the flow reverses but the turbine still spins in exactly the same direction. This eliminates the need for complex mechanisms and valves to deal with the bidirectional air flow.

It's not the most efficient way of generating power because the turbine blades have a higher drag coefficient than conventional turbines and the system is prone to stall. However, it works well enough that the subsidiary of Ocean Energy Group Ireland expects to soon commission the OE-35 following final tests and the system will be connected by undersea cable to the state's electricity grid.

At 1.25 MW, it isn't much against a state that consumes many orders of magnitude more, but it could be a harbinger of things to come.

"Following over a decade and a half of design, trials, testing and building, we are excited finally to be able to take this major step towards commercialization with our world-class OE-35 device," said Professor Tony Lewis, Ocean Energy's Chief Technology Officer. "This internationally significant project couldn't come online at a more critical time for the US and Ireland as the world needs to accelerate the pace of decarbonization with new and innovative technologies."

Source: Ocean Energy

Revolutionary grid-scale wave energy generator deployed in Hawaii (newatlas.com)

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul.

George Bernard Shaw.