Baltic Dry Index. 1698 +13 Brent Crude 78.42
Spot Gold 2395 US 2 Year Yield 4.00 +0.10
“Beyond
this, the problem is universal. It is that governments are now held responsible
for the welfare of the people. The aspirations of the people can outrun their
ability to pay for them, and nobody has yet found a way to create answers to
the aspirations out of thin air.”
George
Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money Game. 1968.
(Solved
by “Bubbles” Greenspan, Black Monday October 19th,
1987.)
In
the stock casinos, the relief rally over, few wanted to try to catch falling
knives or seek to pick up nickels in front of moving steam rollers.
There was also bad news for the global economy, more
specifically, the German and Chinese economies.
In the USA, the political silly season is just getting
started in earnest and nastiness. The rest of the world, will now watch on at
the US Democracy Horror Show.
All in all, “sell in May, go away, don’t return until Labor
Day,” is looking to be the correct strategy this year, in the US stock
casinos. When Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway starts re-entering US stocks,
it’s probably time for the rest of us to start taking more interest in the US
and global stock casinos.
Asian shares slip after
decline on Wall Street led by falling tech stocks
August 8, 2024
Asian shares dropped early Thursday
morning trading after declines on Wall Street, as the gyrations that recently
slammed global markets haunted investors.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell as much as 2.4% in early morning
trading, to 34,264.75. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.6% to 7,652.70. South
Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.8% to 2,523.52.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.1% to 16,694.63.
The future for the S&P 500 was down 0.2% and that for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average edged 0.1% lower.
Although Wall Street slumped on Wednesday, the decline wasn’t as bad as
the manic moves that earlier wracked worldwide markets. European markets logged
strong gains.
Japanese officials moved Wednesday to calm concerns over potential rate
hikes after an increase in its key rate contributed to the heavy selling on
Monday, when the Nikkei suffered its worst percentage loss since 1987.
The Japanese yen was relatively stable after big gains in its value
against the U.S. dollar that led investors to dump shares on Friday and Monday.
The U.S. dollar fell to 146.37 Japanese yen from 146.72 yen. The euro cost
$1.0928, little changed from $1.0927.
Investors are also paying close attention to earnings reports being
released across the globe.
----On Wednesday, the S&P 500 slipped 0.8% after an earlier jump of
1.7% petered out, closing at 5,199.50. The Dow fell 0.6% to 38,763.45. The
Nasdaq composite dropped 1% to 16,195.81.
The yield on the two-year Treasury was holding steady at 3.99% Wednesday,
where it was late Tuesday.
Nvidia,
one of Wall Street’s most influential companies, went from a morning gain of
4.4% to a loss of 5.1% that made it the index’s heaviest weight. Nvidia and
other Big Tech stocks have been struggling on worries their prices have shot
too high amid Wall Street’s frenzy around artificial-intelligence technology.
Helping to limit the losses on Wall Street was Apple, which rose 1.2%. It
clawed back some of its losses from earlier in the week after Warren
Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed it had slashed its
ownership stake in the iPhone maker.
The expectation on Wall Street is for the Fed to cut its main interest
rate at its next scheduled meeting next month by either the traditional quarter
of a percentage point or a more severe half of a point.
In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude added 16 cents to $75.39 a
barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, rose 11 cents to $78.44 a
barrel.
Asian
shares slip after decline on Wall Street led by falling tech stocks (msn.com)
US Stocks Resume Their
Slide After a One Day Respite
August 7, 2024 at 10:53 PM GMT+1
A rapid slide in US stocks on Wednesday tied to a weak $42 billion sale
of Treasuries underscored the fragility of markets, sending equities back to
the neighborhood they landed in after Monday’s collapse. Mark Hackett of
Nationwide said the latest events have been a “masterclass” in how emotions can
dominate the movement of markets, particularly when sentiment and positioning
are almost universally positive.
“Stocks remain vulnerable,” added Fawad
Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com. “More evidence of a bottom is needed to
excite the bulls again.” Overall, not many people were confident enough to buy
the dip. But new inflation numbers set to arrive next week may lend some clarity.
Here are today’s
top stories
Quant funds that chase the hottest trades on Wall Street are getting thrashed
as momentum bets backfire all at once. Going into July, trend followers
were positioned for the year’s big trades to keep gathering steam: They were
plowing into stocks, betting against developed-nation government bonds and
counting on the yen to keep weakening. Then each of those markets moved sharply
in the wrong direction, hitting them with deep losses.
More
Bloomberg
Evening Briefing: Stocks Resume Their Slide After a One Day Respite - Bloomberg
European markets set for
lower open, struggle to keep hold of positive momentum
Published Thu, Aug
8 2024 12:24 AM EDT
LONDON — European stocks are expected to open lower on Thursday as
regional markets struggle to find momentum in a turbulent week of trading.
The U.K.’s FTSE index
is seen opening 44 points lower at 8,100, Germany’s DAX 130 points lower at
17,475, France’s CAC 40 down
48 points at 7,215 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 239 points lower
at 31,713, according to IG.
The lower open anticipated in Europe today comes after regional stocks
traded higher on Wednesday as global markets looked to rally after a rout at
the start of the week. U.S. stocks also popped after Wall Street snapped a
three-day losing streak, with investors looking to claw back losses suffered
earlier in the week.
U.S. futures dipped overnight as Wall Street sought to stabilize
following several dramatic swings largely blamed on last Friday’s
jobs report, which showed slowing employment growth. Traders will likely
pay close attention to Thursday’s weekly jobless claims, searching for a
potential rise in layoffs.
Asia-Pacific
markets were mixed in choppy trading overnight after U.S. stock
benchmarks fell, while investors assessed trade data from Japan and awaited
India’s rate decision.
In Europe Thursday, earnings are due from Munich Re, Siemens, Allianz,
Generali, Veon, Zurich Insurance, Persimmon, Deliveroo and Watches of
Switzerland. There are no major data releases.
European
markets: live stocks, news, earnings and data (cnbc.com)
Black Monday (1987)
Black Monday (also
known as Black Tuesday in some parts of the world due to time
zone differences) was the global, severe and largely unexpected[1] stock market crash on Monday, October
19, 1987. Worldwide losses were estimated at US$1.71 trillion.[2] The
severity of the crash sparked fears of extended economic instability[3] or
even a reprise of the Great
Depression.[4]
More
Black
Monday (1987) - Wikipedia
In other news, nothing good. Bad news for Germany and
much of Europe. Bad news for China.
European Gas Rises to 2024
High on Ukraine Pipeline Concerns
August 7, 2024 at 4:28 PM GMT+1 Updated on August 7, 2024 at 7:07 PM
GMT+1
European gas prices surged to the highest level this year following a
report that Ukrainian troops seized a key gas-transit point near the border in
Russia.
Benchmark futures settled 4.8% higher at €38.45 a
megawatt-hour, the highest since December. The unofficial Russian military blog
Rybar said Ukrainian troops seized the gas intake point near the town of
Sudzha. The claim couldn’t be independently verified.
Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom PJSC declined
to comment, as did Ukraine’s defense ministry and general staff of the armed
forces.
The Sudzha station is part of the last remaining pipeline link bringing
Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine. While Europe has made efforts to wean itself
off piped Russian gas since the war, a potential cut to supplies would still be
a shock, pushing up prices for consumers and industry. Europe hasn’t sanctioned
Russian gas and parts of the continent still depend on it.
The Ukrainian gas transmission system operator said in a daily update
that flows for Thursday are set to be within their normal range. The so-called
nominations are indication of shipments, and actual supplies may still change.
Gazprom said in a daily update earlier that flows were at usual levels on
Wednesday.
More
European
Gas Rises to 2024 High on Ukraine Pipeline Concerns - Bloomberg
China Steel Sector’s
Malaise Deepens With No Relief in Sight
August 8, 2024 at 12:36 AM GMT+1 Updated on August 8, 2024 at 3:41
AM GMT+1
There’s more trouble brewing in the world’s biggest steel market.
After a years-long property slump that has crushed the billion-ton
Chinese steel industry’s biggest source of demand, prospects are getting no
better. Prices are tumbling, profits are dwindling, and there’s little relief
on offer from a government focused on
retooling China’s economy for the long term.
Beijing hasn’t delivered a big-bang solution for its real estate woes,
nor a boom in infrastructure spending that could keep steel consumption on
track. As officials talk of boosting consumer spending and
high-tech industries, demand for the alloy is poised to contract this year.
“There’s not many positives for steel and the housing downturn has years
to go yet,” said Tomas Gutierrez, an analyst at Kallanish Commodities Ltd.
“It’s been clear for a long time that the government views stimulus very
differently now.”
The funk in China’s steel market has global implications as iron ore prices
languish and China ramps up its steel exports, fueling trade frictions.
Here are four charts that illustrate the deepening gloom.
Demand Doldrums
The main culprit is the prolonged malaise in China’s property market.
Steel demand from construction is poised to shrink by 10% this year, according
to Kallanish. That would lower the sector’s share of total consumption to
around a quarter — a very low proportion by the standards of the past two
decades.
More
China Steel Industry Problems Deepen as Property Slump Crushes Demand - Bloomberg
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Jamie
Dimon says he still sees a recession on the horizon
Published
Wed, Aug 7 2024 3:10 PM EDT
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he
still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are
around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind.
When
CNBC’s Leslie Picker asked
Dimon if he had changed his
view from February that markets were too optimistic on recession
risks, he said the odds were “about the same” as his earlier call.
“There’s
a lot of uncertainty out there,” Dimon said. “I’ve always pointed to
geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening,
the elections, all these things cause some consternation in markets.”
Dimon,
leader of the biggest U.S. bank by assets and one of the most respected voices
on Wall Street, has warned of
an economic “hurricane” since 2022. But the economy has held up better than he
expected, and Dimon said Wednesday that while credit-card borrower defaults are
rising, America is not in a recession right now.
Dimon
added he is “a little bit of a skeptic” that the Federal Reserve can bring
inflation down to its 2% target because of future spending on the green economy
and military.
“There’s
always a large range of outcomes,” Dimon said. “I’m fully optimistic that if we
have a mild recession, even a harder one, we would be okay. Of course, I’m very
sympathetic to people who lose their jobs. You don’t want a hard landing.”
More
Jamie
Dimon still sees a recession ahead (cnbc.com)
German
exports fall more than forecast in June
August
7, 2024
BERLIN
(Reuters) -German exports fell more than expected in June due to weak demand
from the United States, the country's key trade partner, and from the rest of
the European Union, official data showed on Wednesday.
Month
on month, Germany exported 3.4% fewer goods in June, the federal statistics
office reported, more than double the 1.5% decline forecast by analysts in a
Reuters poll.
The
foreign trade surplus narrowed to 20.4 billion euros ($22.3 billion) from 24.9
billion euros in May, missing analysts' expectations for 23.5 billion euros.
The
trade data spelled more bad news for the German economy, which slipped into
contraction territory in the second quarter of 2024, again raising the specter
of recession as the country fails to pick up steam following years of weak
foreign demand, high inflation and sluggish consumer spending.
German
industrial data, however, provided some grounds for optimism.
Alongside
the trade data, the federal statistics office also reported a
stronger-than-forecast 1.4% rise in industrial production in June. Industrial
orders also rebounded strongly that month, but economists have warned that the
broader picture for the German economy remains gloomy.
Exports
to the United States, which dropped by 7.7% in June on the previous month,
could suffer even more now that the economy there is showing signs of weakness,
said Jens-Oliver Niklasch, senior economist at LBBW.
"The
environment for the German export industry remains difficult," he added.
German exports
fall more than forecast in June (msn.com)
Infineon
to cut 1,400 jobs and move another 1,400 abroad amid forecasts slump
August
6, 2024
Chip
manufacturer Infineon has announced plans for group layoffs at its plants
worldwide, according to Reuters. Moreover, the German giant states openly that
it intends to transfer some jobs to countries with lower labour costs.
Infineon
has decided to lay off 1,400 jobs and move another 1,400 to countries with
lower labour costs. The company previously announced a savings programme,
which is related to its disappointing results. Reuters reports that several
hundred positions will be cut in Regensburg, a city in southern Germany.
The
chip manufacturer has lowered its forecasts for annual revenues twice this
year. It currently states that they will amount to approximately £13
billion. The German company achieved a revenue of £3.2 billion in
the second quarter of the year, which is almost £90 million less than estimated.
Net profit was also lower at £354 million instead of £393 million.
- The
recovery in our target markets is progressing slowly. The prolonged weak
economic dynamics have resulted in inventory levels in many areas exceeding
final demand, said Jochen Hanebeck, CEO of the German chip manufacturer.
Shifting
production to "cheaper" countries
Infineon
is not the only German company planning to move production to lower-cost
countries. On the contrary, this phenomenon is gaining momentum.
The
latest DIHK survey results indicate a growing trend among German
businesses. They are increasingly considering limiting production in Germany or
relocating it abroad. According to Die Zeit, the percentage of
companies planning such actions has risen from 21% in 2022 to 37% currently. The
situation is particularly worrying for large industrial enterprises employing
over 500 employees—as many as 51% of them are considering moving production.
The
main reason for this situation is the high energy prices in
Germany. Entrepreneurs warn that despite a certain drop, electricity and
gas costs remain uncompetitive compared to other countries,
especially the United States. Additionally, companies complain about prolonged
permit issuance processes, which hinder the expansion of their activities.
Infineon to cut 1,400 jobs and move another 1,400 abroad amid forecasts slump (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Study reveals distinct genetic risk factors for influenza and COVID-19
August 7, 2024
A
recent study published in the journal Nature Genetics reported
that genetic risk factors for influenza and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
are distinct.
Influenza
and COVID-19 are respiratory diseases caused by the influenza virus and severe
acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and share clinical risk
factors and symptoms. However, the extent of their shared genetic etiology
remains unclear because the host genetic risk factors for COVID-19 are well
characterized but not for influenza. Identifying common genetic risk factors
could reveal targets to treat or prevent both infections.
The
study and findings
In
the present study, researchers investigated whether COVID-19 and influenza have
shared genetic etiology. First, a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of
influenza was performed on data from more than 296,000 AncestryDNA COVID-19
study participants to explore how the same genetic factors influence the risk
of influenza and COVID-19.
Of
these, 6.2% reported having been influenza-positive and were classified cases.
The remainder of the population served as controls, including approximately
24,000 with negative results. Next, the team assessed associations between 10
million common variants and reported influenza infection in three ancestral
groups.
---- Only one variant, rs505922 in
histo-blood group ABO system transferase (ABO), was associated with influenza;
the variant reduced COVID-19 risk but increased the risk of influenza. The lack
of directionally consistent and significant associations between influenza and
COVID-19 loci suggested few or no shared genetic risk factors between the two
diseases. Further analyses were performed to evaluate whether influenza
associations were reproducible and robust.
Excluding
over 253,800 people lacking data on influenza tests from the AncestryDNA cohort
did not affect the effect size estimates for either locus. By contrast,
defining influenza based on whether participants reported flu-like symptoms
attenuated effect sizes, albeit they remained significant. In addition, to
assess reproducibility, medical records were accessed to define the lifetime
influenza status of 1.15 million participants from seven biobanks across five
ancestries.
More
Study reveals distinct genetic risk factors for influenza and COVID-19 (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
And then there’s the battery fire
risk. Who would want to live next to one of these BESS time bombs?
Construction
of huge battery storage sites branded 'nightmare'
Locals complain noise and
disruption from constant construction of the facility is taking a toll on their
day-to-day lives.
August 7, 2024
As
many as four battery energy storage systems (BESS) are planned within a
one-mile radius in Kilmarnock, causing chaos for local residents.
Billed as key to helping Scotland meet crucial net zero
targets, the facilities store excess wind or solar power to be stored for
future use.
Locals near one site in Kilmarnock, Ayrshire claim
the huge disruption and lack of consultation and communication has turned them
into a by-product of big business, railroading small communities.
Local resident Jane Dalrymple moved to the area to
escape the noise of city living.
She told STV News: “It’s a nightmare, a nightmare.
I’d already rather be back in a town and away from this constant construction
on my doorstep.
“We’ve just become a by-product of what is big
business for everybody concerned, except for us.”
Neighbour Kirsteen Watson claimed the constant
construction is taking a huge toll on their daily lives.
The C road, normally reserved for local traffic, is
being widened, hedgerows are being taken away and construction work begins as
early as 7am, five days a week.
She said: “We could have 100, maybe 150, HGVS a day
passing us on this road and the road passes our properties, literally feet
away.
“It’s so busy and that’s for one project, we’ve
potentially got five projects being planned for in this area.”
---- A traffic light system is in place to
make the road safer for local use but Lesley says this was only implemented
after numerous complaints and meetings with East Ayrshire Council.
Stephen Chard, who lives near one proposed BESS
development in the area, said: “We all acknowledge the importance of Scotland’s
net zero targets. But all over Scotland, communities are facing the sort of
disruption that’s being experienced here and I’m worried about the lack of
planning and coordination behind it.
“The result here, is we’ve got a 21st century gold
rush of speculated development. It’s not being driven or planned anywhere.
There may well be a plan at the centre of the Scottish government but if there
is, no one has told us about it.”
There are more than 270 other battery energy storage
sites, planned or under construction across the country.
Currently, there aren’t any government regulations
about who can build and manage the sites.
More
Construction of huge battery storage site in Ayrshire branded 'nightmare'
by community | STV News
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Somebody has to be
on the other side.
George Goodman, aka Adam Smith. The Money Game. Why
Are The Little People Always Wrong.
No comments:
Post a Comment