US Recession Arrived? Asian Stocks Rout. Black Monday?

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You're on earth. There's no cure for that.

Samuel Beckett.

In the global stock casinos, welcome to margin call Monday. As the stock casinos rout continues, the selloff has now extended into fantasy Cryptoland.

Where and when will the Great Stock Casino Reconnect to reality end?

At this point in the margin call Monday selloff, there’s no way of knowing, but Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway having dumped half its holding in Apple in Q1 and Q2 24, says it all about stock bubbles.

You have to sell out of large and very large stock positions when there’s buying demand. Trying to dump large stock positions into a margin call panic simply adds to the panic.

Below, margin call Monday.

Japan stocks plunge as much as 7%, hovering near bear market territory, as Asia shares extend sell-off

Published Sun, Aug 4 20247:48 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets continued the sell-off from last week, while investors awaited key trade data from China and Taiwan this week, as well as central bank decisions from Australia and India.

Japan’s markets led losses in the region as the Nikkei 225 and Topix dropped as much as 7% in volatile trading. Heavyweight trading houses such as Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Co, Sumitomo and Marubeni all plunged around 10%.

At these levels, both the Nikkei and Topix are nearing bear market territory, having fallen almost 20% from their all-time highs on July 11.

Monday’s decline follows Friday’s rout when Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix fell more than 5% and 6%, respectively. The broader Topix marked its worst day in eight years, while the Nikkei marked its worst day since March 2020.

In early Monday trading, the yen also strengthened to its highest level against the dollar since January, and was last trading at 144.97.

China’s service sector expanded at a faster pace in July, with the country’s purchasing managers’ index climbing to 52.1 in July, up from 51.2 in June.

The Caixin survey said the acceleration of growth was due to faster new business growth, “supported by sustained improvements in underlying demand conditions and an expansion of services offerings.”

Taiwan’s benchmark index, Taiex, was down almost 8%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 2.84%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kicks off its two-day monetary policy meeting Monday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the central bank to hold rates steady at 4.35%, but markets will monitor the monetary policy statement for clarity on whether the RBA is still considering a rate hike.

South Korea’s Kospi was down 4.38%, while the Kosdaq fell 4.63%.

Hong Kong Hang Seng index saw the smallest loss in Asia, inching down 0.22%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was marginally up, the only major index in positive territory.

On Friday in the U.S., stocks fell sharply as a much weaker-than-anticipated jobs report for July ignited worries that the economy could be falling into a recession.

The Nasdaq was the first of the three major benchmarks to enter correction territory, down more than 10% from its record high. The S&P 500 and Dow were 5.7% and 3.9% below their all-time highs, respectively.

The S&P 500 dropped 1.84%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.43%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 610.71 points, or 1.51%.

Asia stock markets: Nikkei sell-off, RBA meeting, China PMI, India PMI (cnbc.com)

Dow futures slide more than 300 points after Nasdaq falls into a correction: Live updates

Updated Mon, Aug 5 2024 9:16 PM EDT

U.S. stock futures fell Sunday night following a volatile week for Wall Street, in which the Nasdaq Composite dropped into correction territory.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 383 points, or 0.96%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures dipped 1.6% and 2.5%, respectively.

Wall Street is coming off a brutal week for the major averages. On Friday, the Nasdaq capped a third straight week of losses, bringing the tech-heavy index down more than 10% from a record set last month.

The S&P 500 also posted a third straight losing week, down 2% for the week. Even the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had been outperforming, snapped a four-week win streak, falling 2%.

Treasury yields tumbled as well. The benchmark 10-year note on Friday yielded 3.79%, down from where it was one week previously at 4.20%.

The recent pullback in stocks was exacerbated Friday when a disappointing jobs report spurred investor fears the Federal Reserve made a mistake last week when it kept interest rates unchanged, and that the economy is headed toward a recession.

Investors will now watch to see if this move lower can continue. The S&P 500 is 5.7% below its all-time high. The Dow, off by 3.9%.

“I think we’re in that corrective period, but we still think the bull market trend is intact,” Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Wealth, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Friday. “It’s just going to take a little bit to get through this kind of choppier period.”

Apple will also be closely watched when the market opens Monday after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dumped nearly half of its stake in the iPhone maker.

Economic data due out Monday include the July ISM Services PMI, a measure of the performance of U.S. services companies that’s set to show a rise to 50.9, up from 48.8 previously.

Investors may glean some insight into how the Fed may proceed with interest rates in the coming week. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will be speaking at the Hawaii Executive Collaborative after the close Monday.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sold nearly half its stake in Apple

Published Sat, Aug 3 2024 8:22 AM EDT

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dumped nearly half of its gigantic Apple stake last quarter in a surprising move for the famously long-term-focused investor.

The Omaha-based conglomerate disclosed in its earnings filing that its holding in the iPhone maker was valued at $84.2 billion at the end of the second quarter, suggesting that the Oracle of Omaha offloaded a little more than 49% of the tech stake. Even after the selling Apple remains the largest stock stake by far for Berkshire.

The Apple share sale comes amid a broader pattern of selling by Buffett in the second quarter as Berkshire unloaded more than $75 billion in equities in the period, raising the conglomerate’s cash fortress to a record $277 billion.

Buffett had trimmed the Apple stake by 13% in the first quarter and hinted at the Berkshire annual meeting in May that it was for tax reasons. Buffett noted that selling “a little Apple” this year would benefit Berkshire shareholders in  the long run if the tax on capital gains is raised down the road by a U.S. government wanting to plug a climbing fiscal deficit.

But the magnitude of this selling suggests it could be more than just a tax-saving move.

More

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold nearly half its stake in Apple (cnbc.com)

Global markets in turmoil over US recession fears

August 2, 2024

The US Federal Bank was last night accused of leaving interest rate cuts 'too late' after weaker-than-expected jobs data fuelled fears of an economic slowdown in the world's largest economy.

Official figures showed just 114,000 jobs were produced in July, below analyst estimates of 175,000 roles.

The 'disappointing' figures stoked fears that high interest rates had choked off growth and that the US was heading for recession.

This accelerated a global stock sell-off sparked by disappointing results from American firms and gloomy economic data. Tech shares were hardest-hit as analysts warned that artificial intelligence is in a 'bubble'.

This week the Fed, the US central bank, held borrowing costs at a 23-year high of between 5.25 per cent and 5.5 per cent.The jobs data has piled pressure on it to cut interest rates in September – the last opportunity before November's election – and maybe several times again before the end of the year.

But analysts warned that policymakers may have held borrowing costs for too long to pull off a 'smooth landing' for the economy, which would see inflation falling back to target without a severe spike in job cuts.

Investors were already nervous after a survey this week showed a bigger than expected contraction in US manufacturing.

Russ Mould, the investment director at AJ Bell, said: 'The narrative has changed from rate cuts equating to good news to rate cuts meaning measures to avoid recession.'

The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the tech-focused Nasdaq composite all fell deep into the red yesterday.

Shares in chipmaker Intel tumbled around 26 per cent after it revealed plans to cut 15,000 jobs after missing earnings forecasts.

And Amazon fell nearly 10 per cent on a warning that sales for the quarter will come in below previous estimates.

Shares in chipmaker Nvidia dipped 3 per cent after hedge fund Elliott Management told investors that the Korean firm is in a 'bubble' and its AI technology is 'overhyped'. The prospect of the world's largest economy slumping triggered a global sell-off.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 saw its second largest points drop in history and was down a staggering 5.8 per cent.

London's FTSE 100 fell 1.3 per cent  and the pan-European Stoxx 600 index dropped 2.73 per cent.

Matthew Ryan, analyst at Ebury, said it was an 'extremely soft US labour report'.

'The undoubtedly disappointing data has amplified concerns that the Fed has perhaps left it too late to start cutting US interest rates,' he said.

More

Global markets in turmoil over US recession fears (msn.com)

Crypto selloff wipes out $270 billion in value as bitcoin, ether plunge

Published Sun, Aug 4 2024 11:43 PM EDT

The cryptocurrency market plummeted in value on Sunday, as investors continued selling out of risky assets.

Led by a drop of 11% in bitcoin in the past 24 hours and a 21% plunge in ether, the overall value of cryptocurrencies sank by about $270 billion, according to CoinGecko data.

The selloff in the crypto market coincided with a broader slide in equities in Asia-Pacific markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped as much as 7%, extending losses that began last week, after the Bank of Japan announced it would hike its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 16 years.

In the U.S. the Nasdaq slid 3.4% last week into correction territory, capping off the tech-heavy index’s worst three-week stretch since September 2022, when the market was in freefall. Amazon and Nvidia contributed to the declines.

Last week’s drop in stocks was tied in part to disappointing earnings, a weaker-than-expected jobs report, higher unemployment and a declining manufacturing sector. The U.S. Federal Reserve opted to hold its benchmark rate steady and didn’t promise a rate cut in September, which many market experts had baked into their forecast. Lower interest rates tend to correlate with better performance for risky assets.

Bitcoin’s price has reached its lowest level since February. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading at about $54,000. It’s still up almost 23% this year.

The price of ether, the native token underpinning the ethereum blockchain, fell to around $2,300 and has erased its gains for the year. Binance’s BNB token was down more than 15% and solana is trading 10% lower.

Investors are also looking out for new trade data from China and Taiwan this week, as well as central bank decisions in both India and Australia.

The latest crypto wipeout will be felt by a broader base of investors after the SEC this year approved new spot exchange-traded funds for bitcoin and ether.

The ETFs have seen hundreds of millions of dollars flow into the coins. On Friday, CNBC reported that Morgan Stanley would soon allow its 15,000 financial advisors to pitch bitcoin ETFs to its clients, a first for Wall Street.

Crypto plunge wipes out $270 billion in value as bitcoin, ether plunge (cnbc.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Wayfair CEO Says Declining Demand for Home Goods Reminiscent of Financial Crisis of 2008–09

8/2/2024 Updated: 8/2/2024

Demand for household goods is at the same level seen during the financial crisis of 2008–09, the CEO of furniture and home goods company Wayfair has said, as the firm continues to face challenges amid ongoing “macro headwinds.”

Wayfair CEO Niraj Shah made the comments on Aug. 1 as the e-commerce company announced its second-quarter results.

The Boston-headquartered company saw declines across the board in its fiscal second quarter, reporting a $42 million loss in the second quarter that ended June 30, or $0.34 per share.

Earnings, adjusted for stock option expense and non-recurring costs, came to $0.47 per share.

Meanwhile, total net revenue was $3.1 billion, marking a decrease of 1.7 percent year over year, and U.S. net revenue was $2.7 billion, which is a decline of 2 percent year over year.

Gross profit was $941 million, the company said.

The results missed out on Wall Street expectations, with analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research anticipating earnings of $0.50 per share and revenue of $3.18 billion.

Wayfair said it had 22 million active customers as of June 30, marking an increase of 0.9 percent year over year.

However, Shah said customers have changed the way they shop amid “continued macro headwinds” that are putting pressure on their pockets.

“Customers remain cautious in their spending on the home, and our credit card data suggest that the category correction now mirrors the magnitude of the peak to trough decline the home furnishing space experienced during the great financial crisis,” he said.

Economy Expands, but Retail Sales Stall

Still, the CEO said that despite the challenging macro-environment, Wayfair had its best quarter of adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow generation in three years, which he said was “clear evidence of our strict operating discipline.”

“We are running the business with the goal of demonstrating substantial growth in profitability this year, even as the top line remains challenging. And that will be our mindset every year going forward as well,” he said.

Wayfair announced plans earlier this year to lay off 1,650 employees, or about 13 percent of its workforce, as part of cost-saving efforts.

More

Wayfair CEO Says Declining Demand for Home Goods Reminiscent of Financial Crisis of 2008–09 | The Epoch Times

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Study Claims COVID-19 Vaccination Lowers Incidence of Heart Attacks

August, 03, 2024 - 09:45

TEHRAN (Tasnim) – New research conducted by British scholars has claimed that vaccination with any of the COVID-19 shots actually lowered the incidence of heart attacks and strokes and therefore outweighed the risks of adverse effects.

Researchers from the universities of Cambridge, Bristol, and Edinburgh analyzed millions of anonymized health records of adults in England, provided by the National Health Service (NHS) and dated from December 2020 to January 2022.

By that point, over 90% of the UK population over the age of 12 had received at least one dose of the jab.

"We studied COVID-19 vaccines and cardiovascular disease in 45.7 million adults in England and found a similar or lower incidence of common cardiovascular diseases, such as heart attacks and strokes, following each vaccination than before or without vaccination," said Dr. Samantha Ip of Cambridge, the lead author of the study.

Ip and 16 other researchers based their conclusions on the linked data from general practices, hospital admissions, and death records, in a secure environment provided by the NHS.

They examined the incidence of cardiovascular events before or without vaccination compared to after.

According to their findings, published this week in the journal Nature Communications, the incidence of heart attacks and strokes dropped by almost 10% in the 13-24 weeks after the first dose of the jab.

This decline increased to 27% lower after the second dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine, and 20% lower after the second Pfizer shot.

"This England-wide study offers patients reassurance of the cardiovascular safety of first, second, and booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines," said William Whiteley, associate director at the BHF Data Science Centre and professor at the University of Edinburgh.

The benefits of second and booster doses, added Whiteley, "outweigh the very rare cardiovascular complications."

Previous studies have found a rise in myocarditis and pericarditis after the mRNA-based shots, such as those from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, and vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia (blood clotting) following adenovirus-based vaccines such as the AstraZeneca one.

While this study confirmed those findings, it did not identify any new cardiovascular conditions and "offers further reassurance that the benefits of vaccination outweigh the risk," the authors said.

The vaccination program, said Ip, "has been shown to provide protection against severe COVID-19 and saved millions of lives worldwide."

The study used a technique called Cox regression to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals in time intervals since vaccination, adjusted for a wide range of comorbidities, age, sex, and prior COVID-19 infections.

Critics of the vaccination mandates embraced by many countries, including the UK, have argued that the shots had not been tested for safety, failed to prevent transmission of the virus, and potentially pose greater risks to otherwise healthy people than the virus itself.

Study Claims COVID-19 Vaccination Lowers Incidence of Heart Attacks - Space/Science news - Tasnim News Agency

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Brain implant made from graphene is set to begin UK clinical trial

Patients in Manchester will take part in first study using ‘wonder material’ that was discovered in the city

August 3, 2024

The first brain implant made of graphene, hailed as a “wonder material” after its discovery at Manchester university 20 years ago, is set to begin a clinical trial in the city at the end of this month.

Researchers at Manchester’s National Graphene Institute hope the landmark trial will lead to interfaces between the human brain and external computers that are more sensitive than today’s devices.

Potential applications include better treatments for neurological conditions such as Parkinson’s disease and stroke, as well as translating the thoughts of disabled people into speech or movement.

A medical team at Salford Royal hospital is preparing to place a flexible interface with 64 graphene electrodes on the brain of the first trial patient, during neurosurgery to remove a glioblastoma tumour. The implant will stimulate and read neural activity with high precision, so that functional parts of the brain can be preserved when the cancer is cut out.

“The primary objective of this ‘first in human’ trial is to demonstrate the safety of graphene electrodes applied to the brain in eight to ten patients,” said Manchester professor Kostas Kostarelos, chief scientific investigator for the trial. “We’ll also assess the quality of the signals recorded and the implant’s ability to stimulate the brain.”

The implants were produced by InBrain, a neurotech company in Barcelona spun out of the €1bn EU Graphene Flagship programme, in collaboration with the Catalan Institute of Nanotechnology and Manchester university.

The next stage, said InBrain chief executive Carolina Aguilar, will be to carry out clinical trials with the company’s therapeutic implant for Parkinson’s disease, which will have two linked components.

More

Brain implant made from graphene is set to begin UK clinical trial (ft.com)

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.  

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The day you die is just like any other, only shorter.

Samuel Beckett.