Baltic Dry Index. 1691 -01 Brent Crude 79.53
Spot Gold 2501 US 2 Year Yield 4.06 -0.02
The greatest of all evils is a weak government.
Benjamin Disraeli.
In the global stock casinos, party time!
The Fed and most other central banks are about to start cutting interest rates after all. The US Fed as soon as September 18. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will announce the new punchbowl coming in his Friday speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole junket this Friday, won’t he?
What could possibly go wrong?
Look away from the next section now.
Asia markets mixed as investors await a slew of
inflation data and central bank decisions this week
Published Sun, Aug 18 2024 7:46 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Monday
after a week that saw a broad rally in stocks, as investors awaited a slew of
central bank releases and inflation data this week.
The Bank of Korea will release its rate
decision on Thursday, while inflation data from Japan and Singapore will be
released on Friday. China will announce its one- and five-year loan prime rates
on Tuesday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.94%,
while the broad-based Topix fell 0.75%. Both indexes are on pace to snap a
five-day winning streak.
Core machinery orders in Japan fell 1.7% year on year
in June, surprising economists who had expected a 1.8% rise. Machinery orders
are viewed as a proxy for capital expenditure in the country.
Separately, Reuters reported that both Japan’s national and Tokyo
governments are seeking a 700 billion yen ($4.7 billion) valuation for subway
operator Tokyo Metro.
Citing sources, Reuters said the country
plans to list the subway operator as early as end-October.
Half of the company’s shares are planned
to be sold in its initial public offering, which means the 350 billion yen IPO
would be Japan’s biggest IPO since 2018.
South Korea’s Kospi was 0.27% lower, and
the small-cap Kosdaq slid 0.44%.
On the other hand, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose over
1.14%, while the CSI 300 was up 0.41%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 inched up
0.17%
On Friday in the U.S., the S&P 500 added 0.2%,
the Nasdaq Composite gained
0.21% and the Dow Jones
Industrial Average rose
96 points, or 0.24%, rounding off a week of gains.
Asia stock markets: Japan machinery orders, central bank decisions (cnbc.com)
European markets set to start the new trading week
in mixed territory
Published Mon, Aug 19 2024 12:38 AM ED
LONDON — European stocks are expected to
start the new trading week in mixed territory, after global markets rallied
last week.
The U.K.’s FTSE index is seen opening
11 points lower at 8,299, Germany’s DAX down 13 points at
18,314, France’s CAC 40 up
10 points at 7,454 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 58 points at
33,195, according to data from IG.
European markets closed higher last
Friday, rounding off a winning week for global stocks after recent market
jitters and volatility.
U.S.
stocks posted solid gains last Friday, boosted by last Thursday’s
weekly jobless claims and retail sales data. That further signaled to investors
that recent nervousness over a U.S.
recession were overblown.
Overnight, Asia-Pacific
markets were mixed as investors awaited a slew of central bank
releases and inflation data this week. U.S.
stock futures inched higher in overnight trading Sunday.
Wall Street is looking ahead to Federal
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming, speech on Friday,
searching for more clarity on the outlook for rate cuts. Minutes from the Fed’s
most recent meeting are also set to be released Wednesday.
There are no major earnings releases
Monday. Data releases include Spain’s latest balance of trade figures.
European markets: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Stock futures rise slightly after S&P 500
notches best week of the year: Live updates
Updated Sun, Aug 18 2024 7:01 PM EDT
Stock futures inched higher in overnight
trading Sunday after the S&P 500 registered its best week of 2024.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 rose
0.1%, while futures connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added
30 points, or 0.1%. Nasdaq-100
futures edged up 0.2%
Stocks are coming off a winning week amid
a volatile stretch for equities. The broad index rallied 3.9% for its best week
since 2023. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow added 5.2% and 2.9%, respectively.
“Much like some of the last recoveries
that we’ve had after pullbacks, this was a little game of ‘put the money back
where it came from,’” SoFi’s Liz Young Thomas told CNBC on Friday.
She added that the market needed “good
news” to begin recovering from the previous week’s rout. That arrived in the
form of good retail sales, initial jobless claims and results from Walmart.
Last week’s rally came after August got
off to a turbulent start. Earlier this month, disappointing data fueled
recession fears and concerns that the Federal Reserve was
behind the curve on rate cuts. The worries sparked a global sell-off, pushing
the S&P
500 on Aug. 5 to record its worst day since 2022.
Fresh data last week seemed to subdue an
anxious market, and boost hopes that the economy can attain a soft landing
scenario. The 12-month inflation rate measured by July’s consumer price index
slowed to 2.9% — its lowest
reading in more than three years.
Wall Street is looking ahead to Fed Chair
Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming, speech on Friday as investors search for
more clarity on the outlook for rate cuts. That won’t be the only Fed news of
the week, as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting are on deck
for Wednesday. The Democratic National Convention also kicks off Monday.
Earnings season presses on Monday with
results from Palo Alto
Networks and Estee
Lauder
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
To tax the community for the advantage of a class is not protection: it is plunder.
Benjamin Disraeli.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Part
Of The U.S. Economy Is Already In Recession. Chances Are You May Not Know It.
Aug
16, 2024,01:07pm EDT
---- However, despite
the yield curve inverting nearly two and a half years ago, the economy has
shown few signs of an impending recession. A once-reliable indicator seems to
have lost its predictive power.
Another
gauge that was once dependable is the rate of unemployment growth, which I
discussed in a recent post on
Forbes.com. In every recession going back to the early 1960s, the U.S. economy
had entered a downturn by the time unemployment rates rose to the levels we see
today. Yet, again, no clear signs of a recession have emerged. In fact, the
Atlanta Federal Reserve currently projects a 2.9% real GDP growth rate for the
third quarter, surpassing the 2.8% growth in the second quarter and the 1.4%
growth in the first quarter. This data indicates that the economy is
accelerating, not slowing. So, another previously reliable measure seems to
have failed.
Before
dismissing these indicators entirely, however, it's worth considering whether
we may have been interpreting them incorrectly. For example, with the yield
curve, perhaps it’s not the moment of inversion between the 10-year and 2-year
notes that signals an upcoming recession, but rather when the inversion reaches
its peak. If that's the case, the clock may start ticking a year later than
initially thought—when the inversion hit its deepest point.
Even
so, current data still points to a strong economy, and substantial changes in
economic conditions would be needed to suggest a recession is imminent. On the
other hand, it’s important to remember that economic data appeared robust
before the Covid-19 recession as well. Was the preceding yield curve inversion
anticipating that external shock? Most likely not, as many analysts, including
myself, were expecting a recession in late 2019 for other reasons. The Covid-19
outbreak overwhelmed those factors, leaving us wondering whether a recession
would have materialized without the pandemic.
Another
possible explanation is that these indicators remain valid, but our
understanding of recessions needs to evolve. Some argue that aggregate GDP
numbers no longer capture the full scope of economic activity. In other words,
certain sectors of the economy could already be in recession, but overall data
may not reflect this.
A recent paper from
the San Francisco Fed highlights
that different household groups have experienced diverging economic outcomes in
recent years. Following the Covid-19 pandemic, all households accumulated
significant liquid wealth due to reduced spending opportunities and emergency
income programs. However, lower-income households depleted this extra wealth
two quarters earlier than higher-income households. Additionally, credit card
delinquencies among lower-income groups returned to pre-pandemic levels a year
sooner and doubled in size. As a result, both non-essential consumption and
savings have sharply declined for these groups.
Given
that consumption and savings (which are closely tied to investment) make up the
bulk of GDP, the overall positive growth numbers suggest that higher-income
groups are driving current economic activity, while lower-income groups may be
dragging it down.
There
is limited recent data on the distribution of savings and spending by income
groups to confirm this assumption. The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides
detailed data, but the most recent figures are from 2022. If this
assumption holds true, it could mean that a part of the U.S. economy is, in
fact, in recession—we just haven’t been looking in the right places. If we
separated the higher-income group from the rest, we might see an economy that
is thriving alongside another that is in decline.
More
Part Of The U.S. Economy Is Already In Recession. Chances Are You May Not Know It. (forbes.com)
Florida
hit by 'worst real estate crisis in decades' as desperate condo owners slash
prices by up to 40%: 'It's paradise lost'
By Miles Dilworth,
Senior Reporter For Dailymail.Com
Published: 11:56, 17
August 2024 | Updated: 15:21, 17 August 2024
Florida condo
owners are slashing prices by up to 40 percent as they strive to dodge massive
incoming repair costs.
Some
units have had almost half a million wiped off their asking price as safety
fears trigger a wave of sell offs in what realtors have described as the worst
real estate crisis in decades.
One
three-bedroom, two-bathroom condo in Saint Petersburg was listed at around
$1.2million at the start of the year.
But
still without a buyer, the owner slashed the asking price first to $898,000 and
last week to $715,000.
State
legislation brought in following the 2021 collapse of the Champlain Tower South
in Surfside, Miame-Dade County, which killed 98 people, means hundreds of
thousands of condo owners must now fork out hefty sums for previously neglected
maintenance.
Many
could face fees greater than their mortgage payments, sparking a wave of
distressed sales in the Sunshine State.
Karen
Shipman, who bought a second-story condo in Venice, Florida, with her husband
for their retirement in 2021, said she was no longer sure they could afford to
keep their home.
'I
feel like it's paradise lost now,' she told ABC Action News.
ISG
World recently reported that there were 20,293 condo listings in Palm Beach,
Broward and Miami-Dade in the second quarter of the year, up from 8,353 in the
same time frame in 2023.
Now
DailyMail.com can reveal an estimated 360,000 property owners in south Florida
alone - the home of the condo boom - may not be able to afford the repairs
required by the new law.
Joseph
Hernandez, a property lawyer and partner at Bilzin Sumberg in the state, said
many of these are already looking to sell their units at a loss before they are
hit with huge repair bills.
The
problem they face, however, is whether anyone will want to buy them even at
massive discounts given the strings attached.
The
Champlain Tower disaster lifted the lid on the widespread neglect of old
condominiums, with associations postponing crucial repairs to save cash.
It
prompted lawmakers to introduce the SB 4-D Bill in May 2022, which requires all
Florida condos aged 30 years and older to undergo an inspection by the end of
the year.
Condo
owners and associations must start repairs and maintenance works flagged in the
report within a year of receiving it.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today, as usual, more big pharma vaccine scaremongering.
COVID-19’s
summer surge shows no signs of slowing down
August 17, 2024
A
surge in COVID-19 infections has swept the country this summer, upending travel
plans and bringing fevers, coughs and general malaise. It shows no immediate
sign of slowing.
While
most of the country and the federal government has put the pandemic in the
rearview mirror, the virus is mutating and new variants emerging.
Even
though the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) no longer
tracks individual infection numbers, experts think it could be the biggest
summer wave yet.
So
far, the variants haven’t been proven to cause a more serious illness, and
vaccines remain effective, but there’s no certainty about how the virus may yet
change and what happens next.
The
highest viral activity right now is in the West, according to wastewater
data from
the CDC, but a “high” or “very high” level of COVID-19 virus is being detected
in wastewater in almost every state. And viral levels are much higher
nationwide than they were this time last year and started increasing earlier in
the summer.
Wastewater
data is the most reliable method of tracking levels of viral activity because
so few people test, but it can’t identify specific case numbers.
Part
of the testing decline can be attributed to pandemic fatigue, but experts said
it’s also an issue of access. Free
at-home tests are
increasingly hard to find. The government isn’t distributing them, and private
insurance plans have not been required to cover them since the public health
emergency ended in 2023.
COVID
has spiked every summer since the start of the pandemic. Experts have
said the surge is being driven by predictable trends like increased travel and
extreme hot weather driving more people indoors, as well as by a trio of
variants that account for nearly 70 percent of all infections.
Vaccines
and antivirals can blunt the worst of the virus, and hospital are no longer
being overwhelmed like in the earliest days of the pandemic.
But
there remains a sizeable number of people who are not up-to-date on
vaccinations. There are concerns that diminished testing and low vaccination
rates could make it easier for more dangerous variants to take hold.
More
COVID-19’s summer surge shows no signs of slowing down (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Battery
discovery offers decades-long lifespan
August
17, 2024
The
new technique, developed by a team from Qingdao Institute of Bioenergy and
Bioprocess Technology (QIBEBT) in China, enables a highly-promising
type of battery to achieve 20,000 charging cycles
with an energy density of 390 Wh/kg. For comparison, conventional lithium-ion
batteries that are found in everything from consumer electronics to electric
vehicles last less than 1,000 cycles and have an energy density between 200-300
Wh/kg.
The
breakthrough concerns all-solid-state lithium batteries (ASLBs), which have
several advantages over lithium-ion batteries, such as improved safety, energy
density and longevity.
Until
now, their development has been stalled by limitations to their cathodes which
have prevented them from being commercially viable on a significant scale. To
overcome this, the researchers developed an innovative cathode that maintains
the battery’s energy density and huge cycle life.
“This
approach is a game-changer for ASLBs,” said Zhang Shu, who led the research.
“The combination of high energy density and extended cycle life opens up new
possibilities for the future of energy storage.”
ASLBs
with the new cathode could be used in a variety of applications, according to
the researchers, with potential development routes including electric vehicles,
portable electronics and grid energy storage for solar, wind and other
renewables.
The
scientists now hope the technology can be commercialised, claiming it could be
used within lithium-ion, lithium-sulfur and sodium-ion batteries.
“The
commercialisation potential for high-energy-density ASLBs is now more
achievable,” said Cui Guanglei, a professor at QIBEBT who heads SERGY.
“Our
universal strategy for designing multifunctional homogenous cathodes can
overcome the energy, power, and lifespan barriers in energy storage, paving the
way for real-world applications.”
The
discovery was detailed in the journal Nature Energy this week,
in a study titled: ‘A cathode homogenization strategy for enabling
long-cycle-life all-solid-state lithium batteries’.
Battery discovery
offers decades-long lifespan (msn.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The
best way to become acquainted with a subject is to write about it.
Benjamin
Disraeli.
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