Monday, 19 August 2024

Miami Recession Signs. Casino Mania Runs On. Fed’s Jackson Junket.

Baltic Dry Index. 1691 -01      Brent Crude  79.53

Spot Gold 2501             US 2 Year Yield 4.06 -0.02

The greatest of all evils is a weak government.

Benjamin Disraeli.

In the global stock casinos, party time!

The Fed and most other central banks are about to start cutting interest rates after all. The US Fed as soon as September 18. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will announce the new punchbowl coming in his Friday speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole junket this Friday, won’t he?

What could possibly go wrong?

Look away from the next section now.

Asia markets mixed as investors await a slew of inflation data and central bank decisions this week

Published Sun, Aug 18 2024 7:46 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Monday after a week that saw a broad rally in stocks, as investors awaited a slew of central bank releases and inflation data this week.

The Bank of Korea will release its rate decision on Thursday, while inflation data from Japan and Singapore will be released on Friday. China will announce its one- and five-year loan prime rates on Tuesday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.94%, while the broad-based Topix fell 0.75%. Both indexes are on pace to snap a five-day winning streak.

Core machinery orders in Japan fell 1.7% year on year in June, surprising economists who had expected a 1.8% rise. Machinery orders are viewed as a proxy for capital expenditure in the country.

Separately, Reuters reported that both Japan’s national and Tokyo governments are seeking a 700 billion yen ($4.7 billion) valuation for subway operator Tokyo Metro.

Citing sources, Reuters said the country plans to list the subway operator as early as end-October.

Half of the company’s shares are planned to be sold in its initial public offering, which means the 350 billion yen IPO would be Japan’s biggest IPO since 2018.

South Korea’s Kospi was 0.27% lower, and the small-cap Kosdaq slid 0.44%.

On the other hand, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose over 1.14%, while the CSI 300 was up 0.41%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 inched up 0.17%

On Friday in the U.S., the S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.21% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 96 points, or 0.24%, rounding off a week of gains.

Asia stock markets: Japan machinery orders, central bank decisions (cnbc.com)

European markets set to start the new trading week in mixed territory

Published Mon, Aug 19 2024 12:38 AM ED

LONDON — European stocks are expected to start the new trading week in mixed territory, after global markets rallied last week.

The U.K.’s FTSE index is seen opening 11 points lower at 8,299, Germany’s DAX down 13 points at 18,314, France’s CAC 40 up 10 points at 7,454 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 58 points at 33,195, according to data from IG.

European markets closed higher last Friday, rounding off a winning week for global stocks after recent market jitters and volatility.

U.S. stocks posted solid gains last Friday, boosted by last Thursday’s weekly jobless claims and retail sales data. That further signaled to investors that recent nervousness over a U.S. recession were overblown.

Overnight, Asia-Pacific markets were mixed as investors awaited a slew of central bank releases and inflation data this week. U.S. stock futures inched higher in overnight trading Sunday.

Wall Street is looking ahead to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming, speech on Friday, searching for more clarity on the outlook for rate cuts. Minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting are also set to be released Wednesday.

There are no major earnings releases Monday. Data releases include Spain’s latest balance of trade figures.

European markets: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)

Stock futures rise slightly after S&P 500 notches best week of the year: Live updates

Updated Sun, Aug 18 2024 7:01 PM EDT

Stock futures inched higher in overnight trading Sunday after the S&P 500 registered its best week of 2024.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 rose 0.1%, while futures connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 30 points, or 0.1%. Nasdaq-100 futures edged up 0.2%

Stocks are coming off a winning week amid a volatile stretch for equities. The broad index rallied 3.9% for its best week since 2023. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow added 5.2% and 2.9%, respectively.

“Much like some of the last recoveries that we’ve had after pullbacks, this was a little game of ‘put the money back where it came from,’” SoFi’s Liz Young Thomas told CNBC on Friday.

She added that the market needed “good news” to begin recovering from the previous week’s rout. That arrived in the form of good retail sales, initial jobless claims and results from Walmart.

Last week’s rally came after August got off to a turbulent start. Earlier this month, disappointing data fueled recession fears and concerns that the Federal Reserve was behind the curve on rate cuts. The worries sparked a global sell-off, pushing the S&P 500 on Aug. 5 to record its worst day since 2022.

Fresh data last week seemed to subdue an anxious market, and boost hopes that the economy can attain a soft landing scenario. The 12-month inflation rate measured by July’s consumer price index slowed to 2.9% — its lowest reading in more than three years.

Wall Street is looking ahead to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming, speech on Friday as investors search for more clarity on the outlook for rate cuts. That won’t be the only Fed news of the week, as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting are on deck for Wednesday. The Democratic National Convention also kicks off Monday.

Earnings season presses on Monday with results from Palo Alto Networks and Estee Lauder

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

To tax the community for the advantage of a class is not protection: it is plunder.

Benjamin Disraeli.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Part Of The U.S. Economy Is Already In Recession. Chances Are You May Not Know It.

Aug 16, 2024,01:07pm EDT

---- However, despite the yield curve inverting nearly two and a half years ago, the economy has shown few signs of an impending recession. A once-reliable indicator seems to have lost its predictive power.

Another gauge that was once dependable is the rate of unemployment growth, which I discussed in a recent post on Forbes.com. In every recession going back to the early 1960s, the U.S. economy had entered a downturn by the time unemployment rates rose to the levels we see today. Yet, again, no clear signs of a recession have emerged. In fact, the Atlanta Federal Reserve currently projects a 2.9% real GDP growth rate for the third quarter, surpassing the 2.8% growth in the second quarter and the 1.4% growth in the first quarter. This data indicates that the economy is accelerating, not slowing. So, another previously reliable measure seems to have failed.

Before dismissing these indicators entirely, however, it's worth considering whether we may have been interpreting them incorrectly. For example, with the yield curve, perhaps it’s not the moment of inversion between the 10-year and 2-year notes that signals an upcoming recession, but rather when the inversion reaches its peak. If that's the case, the clock may start ticking a year later than initially thought—when the inversion hit its deepest point.

Even so, current data still points to a strong economy, and substantial changes in economic conditions would be needed to suggest a recession is imminent. On the other hand, it’s important to remember that economic data appeared robust before the Covid-19 recession as well. Was the preceding yield curve inversion anticipating that external shock? Most likely not, as many analysts, including myself, were expecting a recession in late 2019 for other reasons. The Covid-19 outbreak overwhelmed those factors, leaving us wondering whether a recession would have materialized without the pandemic.

Another possible explanation is that these indicators remain valid, but our understanding of recessions needs to evolve. Some argue that aggregate GDP numbers no longer capture the full scope of economic activity. In other words, certain sectors of the economy could already be in recession, but overall data may not reflect this.

recent paper from the San Francisco Fed highlights that different household groups have experienced diverging economic outcomes in recent years. Following the Covid-19 pandemic, all households accumulated significant liquid wealth due to reduced spending opportunities and emergency income programs. However, lower-income households depleted this extra wealth two quarters earlier than higher-income households. Additionally, credit card delinquencies among lower-income groups returned to pre-pandemic levels a year sooner and doubled in size. As a result, both non-essential consumption and savings have sharply declined for these groups.

Given that consumption and savings (which are closely tied to investment) make up the bulk of GDP, the overall positive growth numbers suggest that higher-income groups are driving current economic activity, while lower-income groups may be dragging it down.

There is limited recent data on the distribution of savings and spending by income groups to confirm this assumption. The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides detailed data, but the most recent figures are from 2022. If this assumption holds true, it could mean that a part of the U.S. economy is, in fact, in recession—we just haven’t been looking in the right places. If we separated the higher-income group from the rest, we might see an economy that is thriving alongside another that is in decline.

More

Part Of The U.S. Economy Is Already In Recession. Chances Are You May Not Know It. (forbes.com)

Florida hit by 'worst real estate crisis in decades' as desperate condo owners slash prices by up to 40%: 'It's paradise lost'

By Miles Dilworth, Senior Reporter For Dailymail.Com

Published: 11:56, 17 August 2024 | Updated: 15:21, 17 August 2024

Florida condo owners are slashing prices by up to 40 percent as they strive to dodge massive incoming repair costs.

Some units have had almost half a million wiped off their asking price as safety fears trigger a wave of sell offs in what realtors have described as the worst real estate crisis in decades.

One three-bedroom, two-bathroom condo in Saint Petersburg was listed at around $1.2million at the start of the year.

But still without a buyer, the owner slashed the asking price first to $898,000 and last week to $715,000.

State legislation brought in following the 2021 collapse of the Champlain Tower South in Surfside, Miame-Dade County, which killed 98 people, means hundreds of thousands of condo owners must now fork out hefty sums for previously neglected maintenance.

Many could face fees greater than their mortgage payments, sparking a wave of distressed sales in the Sunshine State.

Karen Shipman, who bought a second-story condo in Venice, Florida, with her husband for their retirement in 2021, said she was no longer sure they could afford to keep their home.

'I feel like it's paradise lost now,' she told ABC Action News

ISG World recently reported that there were 20,293 condo listings in Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade in the second quarter of the year, up from 8,353 in the same time frame in 2023.

Now DailyMail.com can reveal an estimated 360,000 property owners in south Florida alone - the home of the condo boom - may not be able to afford the repairs required by the new law.

Joseph Hernandez, a property lawyer and partner at Bilzin Sumberg in the state, said many of these are already looking to sell their units at a loss before they are hit with huge repair bills.

The problem they face, however, is whether anyone will want to buy them even at massive discounts given the strings attached.

The Champlain Tower disaster lifted the lid on the widespread neglect of old condominiums, with associations postponing crucial repairs to save cash.

It prompted lawmakers to introduce the SB 4-D Bill in May 2022, which requires all Florida condos aged 30 years and older to undergo an inspection by the end of the year.

Condo owners and associations must start repairs and maintenance works flagged in the report within a year of receiving it.

More

Florida hit by 'worst real estate crisis in decades' as desperate condo owners slash prices by up to 40%: 'It's paradise lost' | Daily Mail Online

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Today, as usual, more big pharma vaccine scaremongering.

COVID-19’s summer surge shows no signs of slowing down

August 17, 2024

A surge in COVID-19 infections has swept the country this summer, upending travel plans and bringing fevers, coughs and general malaise. It shows no immediate sign of slowing. 

While most of the country and the federal government has put the pandemic in the rearview mirror, the virus is mutating and new variants emerging. 

Even though the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) no longer tracks individual infection numbers, experts think it could be the biggest summer wave yet.  

So far, the variants haven’t been proven to cause a more serious illness, and vaccines remain effective, but there’s no certainty about how the virus may yet change and what happens next.  

The highest viral activity right now is in the West, according to wastewater data from the CDC, but a “high” or “very high” level of COVID-19 virus is being detected in wastewater in almost every state. And viral levels are much higher nationwide than they were this time last year and started increasing earlier in the summer.

Wastewater data is the most reliable method of tracking levels of viral activity because so few people test, but it can’t identify specific case numbers.

Part of the testing decline can be attributed to pandemic fatigue, but experts said it’s also an issue of access. Free at-home tests are increasingly hard to find. The government isn’t distributing them, and private insurance plans have not been required to cover them since the public health emergency ended in 2023.   

COVID has spiked every summer since the start of the pandemic.  Experts have said the surge is being driven by predictable trends like increased travel and extreme hot weather driving more people indoors, as well as by a trio of variants that account for nearly 70 percent of all infections. 

Vaccines and antivirals can blunt the worst of the virus, and hospital are no longer being overwhelmed like in the earliest days of the pandemic. 

But there remains a sizeable number of people who are not up-to-date on vaccinations. There are concerns that diminished testing and low vaccination rates could make it easier for more dangerous variants to take hold.  

More

COVID-19’s summer surge shows no signs of slowing down (msn.com) 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Battery discovery offers decades-long lifespan

August 17, 2024

The new technique, developed by a team from Qingdao Institute of Bioenergy and Bioprocess Technology (QIBEBT) in China, enables a highly-promising type of battery to achieve 20,000 charging cycles with an energy density of 390 Wh/kg. For comparison, conventional lithium-ion batteries that are found in everything from consumer electronics to electric vehicles last less than 1,000 cycles and have an energy density between 200-300 Wh/kg.

The breakthrough concerns all-solid-state lithium batteries (ASLBs), which have several advantages over lithium-ion batteries, such as improved safety, energy density and longevity.

Until now, their development has been stalled by limitations to their cathodes which have prevented them from being commercially viable on a significant scale. To overcome this, the researchers developed an innovative cathode that maintains the battery’s energy density and huge cycle life.

“This approach is a game-changer for ASLBs,” said Zhang Shu, who led the research. “The combination of high energy density and extended cycle life opens up new possibilities for the future of energy storage.”

ASLBs with the new cathode could be used in a variety of applications, according to the researchers, with potential development routes including electric vehicles, portable electronics and grid energy storage for solar, wind and other renewables.

The scientists now hope the technology can be commercialised, claiming it could be used within lithium-ion, lithium-sulfur and sodium-ion batteries.

“The commercialisation potential for high-energy-density ASLBs is now more achievable,” said Cui Guanglei, a professor at QIBEBT who heads SERGY.

“Our universal strategy for designing multifunctional homogenous cathodes can overcome the energy, power, and lifespan barriers in energy storage, paving the way for real-world applications.”

The discovery was detailed in the journal Nature Energy this week, in a study titled: ‘A cathode homogenization strategy for enabling long-cycle-life all-solid-state lithium batteries’.

Battery discovery offers decades-long lifespan (msn.com)

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.  

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The best way to become acquainted with a subject is to write about it.

Benjamin Disraeli.

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