Baltic
Dry Index. 1735 +27 Brent Crude 77.11
Spot Gold 2516 US 2 Year Yield 3.99 -0.07
No free energy device will ever be allowed to reach the market.
Nikola Tesla.
In the global stock casinos, more wobble ahead of the US central bank minutes of their last meeting and the preliminary revisions to the US employment figures.
What if the revisions suggest that the US economy is in fact entering/has entered the new recession? They wouldn’t do that would they?
Surely The Bureau of Lying Labor
Statistics would doctor the revisions rather than blow up Fed Chairman Pouffe
Powell’s Friday soft landing speech?
Still, it’s likely to be an interesting day ahead.
Asia-Pacific markets fall as Wall Street rally
falters; Japan trade swings to deficit
Published Tue, Aug 20 2024 7:57 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets fell on Wednesday
after U.S. benchmark indexes, the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite, snapped
an eight-day winning streak overnight.
The S&P 500 slid 0.2%, while
the Nasdaq Composite shed
0.33%. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average dropped 0.15%. If the S&P had gained on
Tuesday, it would have been the broad index’s longest winning streak since
2004.
In Asia, Japan’s trade data for July saw exports rising 10.3%
year on year and imports up 16.6%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast
that exports would rise 11.4%, while imports growth was pegged at 14.9%.
With exports coming in lower than expected
and imports rising more than expected, Japan swung to a trade deficit of 621.84
billion yen ($4.28 billion), a larger figure than the 330.7 billion yen
expected by economists.
July will be the last month of trade data
recorded before the Bank of Japan’s move to raise interest rates at the end of
July, which caused the yen to strengthen dramatically.
Typically, a weaker yen benefits Japanese
exporters and trading houses, heavyweights on the Nikkei 225 and whose rise has
been instrumental in lifting the index to its record highs.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.88%
after the data release, while the broad based Topix fell 0.6%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index tumbled
1.38%, leading losses in Asia, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was 0.57% lower.
Technology and consumer cyclical stocks
dragged the HSI, with e-commerce giant JD.com leading declines,
down 11.4%. The losses come after U.S. retail giant Walmart told CNBC it was
looking to sell its stake in JD.com. The stake could reportedly be worth $3.74 billion.
South Korea’s Kospi inched down 0.23%, and
the small-cap Kosdaq was 1.13% lower.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 also fell
0.48%.
Asia stock markets: Japan trade on deck, Wall Street rally pauses (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street
awaits Fed minutes: Live updates
Updated Wed, Aug 21 2024 7:16 PM EDT
Stock futures hovered near the flatline
Tuesday evening as traders looked ahead to minutes from the Federal Reserve’s
latest policy meeting, seeking further insight into the prospect of an interest
rate cut.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added
23 points. S&P 500
futures were little changed, while futures tied to the Nasdaq-100 ticked lower by
less than 0.1%.
Stocks are coming off a losing session,
with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite snapping
their longest winning streaks since late 2023. The broad-market S&P 500
dipped 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 0.33%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
0.15%.
Tuesday’s moves follow a rocky period for
stocks after a weak U.S. jobs report and an interest rate hike from the Bank of
Japan sparked a global sell-off on Aug.
5. That day, the CBOE
Volatility Index spiked to its highest level since the
pandemic-era market
plunge in 2020. Equities have bounced back since the market turmoil,
with strong retail
sales and a weaker-than-expected inflation
report helping alleviate recession fears last week.
Along with minutes from the Fed’s July
meeting, Wall Street anxiously awaits commentary from central bank leader
Jerome Powell. The Fed chair is expected to deliver remarks Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and he could provide
further clues into the Fed’s next rate decision at its September gathering.
“To us, the key will be Chair Powell’s
tone, which we expect to lean dovish,” said Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio
strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. “Simply put, inflation
continues to trend towards the 2% target seemingly at a rate exceeding
consensus. Combine this with signs that the labor market is softening and one
gets the sense that there is little need to retain a hawkish stance.”
On the earnings front Wednesday, traders
will keep an eye on quarterly reports from TJX Companies, Target and Analog Devices.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news, despite Brexit….. Who knew that without GB, the EUSSR would do so poorly?
UK economy growing twice as fast as EU - and it's all thanks to Brexit
20 August, 2024
British economic growth has once again outperformed
the EU, with British Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) rising by 0.6 percent between April and June.
The figures, released by the Office for
National Statistics (ONS) show that the UK economy has
grown in the last two quarters, extending its recovery from the recession it
fell into at the end of 2023.
In comparison the EU economy grew by just
0.3 percent in both quarters, with political uncertainty in several influential
EU countries hampering attempts to increase by as much as 1 percent.
GDP is the most common measure for the
size of an economy, and it measures the value of total final output of goods
and services produced by that economy in a certain period of time
Jeremy Hunt, the former Chancellor said on X: "Today's
figures are yet further proof that Labour have inherited a growing and
resilient economy.
----It is important to provide context to
the UK's growth by acknowledging that the UK was the only G7 country to see its
economy shrink in the final two quarters of 2023, meaning that the UK started
from a lower base than nations such as France and Germany.
Simon Pittaway an economist from the
Resolution foundation said: "The data, combined with strong growth in Q1,
puts the UK at the top of the G7 for growth in 2024 so far.
"But the bad news is that GDP per
capita today is still no higher than it was before the pandemic, and we're a
long way off our pre-pandemic trend. If GDP per capita had got back to that
trend, UK households would be £580 better off per year on average."
The continued growth shows signs of
investor confidence in the UK economy, helped by a peaceful transfer of power
following the general election and the underestimated impact of measures
introduced by Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt following the turmoil of
2022.
The lack of EU growth does have
implications for the UK economy, given that the EU is a final destination for a
large proportion of UK exports and poor growth could lead to a reduced level of
demand.
More
UK economy growing twice as fast as EU - and it's all thanks to Brexit (msn.com)
The world’s largest steel industry is going
through a ‘winter’ amid a supply glut and weak demand
Published Wed, Aug 21 2024 12:34 AM EDT
China’s steel industry has been struggling
as the country’s property sector remains in the doldrums and is unable to
absorb excess capacity, industry watchers told CNBC.
“Chinese demand has been a major
disappointment for metals across the board,” said Sarbin Chowdhury, head of
commodities analysis at BMI, particularly steel and iron ore.
“This is mainly due to the weak property
sector in China. The property sector downturn is set to last several years, and
that definitely does bode negatively for industrial metals that are required in
infrastructure,” she added.
China is the world’s largest producer of steel, accounting
for more than half the world’s output at over a billion tons a year.
It is also the world’s leading consumer of
steel and iron ore, and prices for both materials have dropped as steel supply
remains bloated amid weak domestic demand.
China steel rebar prices are down over 20%
year to date at 3,208 Chinese yuan ($450) per ton, data from financial
information provider Wind showed. Prices of China iron ore, the key material
for steel, have plunged over 28% so far this year, according to FactSet data.
Steel industry’s ‘winter’
Hu Wangming, chairman of the world’s
largest steel producer, state-owned Baowu Steel, recently
said the steel industry was going through a “winter,” adding that the
industry was in the midst of a long-term adjustment period.
The Chinese steel industry is caught
“between a rock and a hard place” as steel makers’ margins are getting
increasingly squeezed by weak demand, said Bank of America’s Head of Asia
Pacific Basic Materials, Oil and Gas Research, Matty Zhao. The muted demand is
expected to continue into 2025 on the back of a “very weak” Chinese property
market, she told CNBC.
Additionally, with no specific measures
announced at the country’s high-profile Third Plenum gathering, hopes are
fading that China’s embattled property sector will come out of its slump.
Excavator sales in China are expected to
be down 8% year on year for fiscal year 2024, Citi wrote in an August note.
Excavator sales are usually seen as a leading indicator of construction
activity, and by extension, metals demand.
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Well
maybe, but I took the downward revisions to previous US retail sales as
negative. I expect the BLS employment revisions are more likely to be negative
too. However, I expect BLS unemployment revisions will be positive.
Fed
Confronts Up to a Million US Jobs Vanishing in Revision
August
20, 2024
(Bloomberg)
-- US job growth in the year through March was likely far less robust than
initially estimated, which risks fueling concerns that the Federal Reserve is
falling further behind the curve to lower interest rates.
Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. economists expect the government’s
preliminary benchmark revisions on Wednesday to show payrolls growth in the
year through March was at least 600,000 weaker than currently estimated — about
50,000 a month.
While
JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasters see a decline of about 360,000, Goldman
Sachs indicates it could be as large as a million.
There
are a number of caveats in the preliminary figure, but a downward revision to
employment of more than 501,000 would be the largest in 15 years and suggest
the labor market has been cooling for longer — and perhaps more so — than
originally thought. The final numbers are due early next year.
Such
figures also have the potential of shaping the tone of Fed Chair Jerome
Powell’s speech at week’s end in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Investors are trying to
gain insight as to when and how much the central bank will start lowering
interest rates as inflation and the job market cool.
“A
large negative revision would indicate that the strength of hiring was already
fading before this past April,” Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Aubrey
Woessner said in a note last week. That would make “risks to the full
employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate more salient amid widespread
softening in other labor market data.”
More
Fed Confronts Up to
a Million US Jobs Vanishing in Revision (msn.com)
Goldman Sachs lowers odds of US recession to 20% from 25%
August
19, 2024
(Reuters)
- Goldman Sachs has lowered the odds of the United States slipping into a
recession in the next 12 months to 20% from 25% following the latest weekly
jobless claims and retail sales reports.
Earlier
this month, the brokerage raised the odds of a U.S. recession from 15% after
the unemployment rate jumped to a three-year high in July, sparking fears of a
downturn.
"We
have now shaved our probability from 25% to 20%, mainly because the data for
July and early August released since August 2 shows no sign of recession,"
Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius said in a note on Saturday.
"Continued
expansion would make the U.S. look more similar to other G10 economies, where
the Sahm rule has held less than 70% of the time," he added.
Thursday's
jobless claims report showed number of Americans filing for unemployment
benefits dropped to a one-month low in the previous week, while separate data
revealed on the day that retail sales increased by the most in 1-1/2 years in
July.
Hatzius
said if the August jobs report seems "reasonably good", he would cut
back the U.S. recession probability to 15%.
He
maintains the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its
September meeting, but did not rule out a 50 bps cut if the jobs report falls
short of expectations.
Goldman Sachs lowers odds of US recession to 20% from 25% (msn.com)
Goldman
Sachs Strategists Say US Sales Forecasts for 2025 Are Too High
By Sagarika Jaisinghani August 19, 2024 at 4:36AM EDT
(Bloomberg) -- Corporate America’s expectations for sales next year are too
high given the outlook for a moderating economy and weaker dollar, according to
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.
The
team led by David Kostin said it expects S&P 500 sales to rise by 4% in
2025 compared with 6% this year, as the median stock outside the energy sector
is more sensitive to the economy and less international-facing.
By
contrast, analysts expect a 5.8% increase in 2025 revenue, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
The
median analyst forecast “for a sharp acceleration in sales growth appears
slightly too optimistic,” Kostin wrote in a note dated Aug. 16.
S&P
500 companies are on track to post the sharpest increase in quarterly earnings
since 2021, data compiled by BI show. At the same time, the share of firms
beating sales estimates in the second quarter is the smallest since 2019,
raising concerns about the resilience of profit margins.
Kostin
still sees margins expanding next year, as a slowdown in price increases has
been countered by easing cost pressures, including wages. Still, the strategist
said margins are unlikely to expand as much as analysts expect.
Morgan
Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, meanwhile, has warned about a shorter-term
weakening in the earnings outlook, in line with the seasonal trend.
Goldman Sachs Strategists Say US Sales Forecasts for 2025 Are Too High – BNN Bloomberg
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
CDC Says ‘Very High’ COVID-19 Levels Reported in 32 States
Two
new variants of the virus account for more than half of all reported U.S.
cases, the agency said.
8/18/2024
Updated: 8/19/2024
The
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said that COVID-19 levels
across the United States are currently “very high” in more than half of the
states, with Omicron variants KP.3 and KP.3.1.1 accounting for about half of
all cases.
Citing
wastewater data as of Aug. 15,
the CDC said that “very high” COVID-19 levels are being observed in 32 states
and the District of Columbia, and “high” levels are being observed in 11
states. All of the states along the West Coast and the Mountain states are in
the “very high” range, according to the CDC.
A
separate CDC dashboard shows that, for the week ending Aug. 10, COVID-19
emergency department visits were slightly down, at 2.4 percent from 2.5
percent, while hospitalizations were slightly up, at 3.3 percent from 3.2
percent. During a previous increase in cases in December 2023, emergency
department visits peaked at 3.4 percent, according to CDC data.
COVID-19
related deaths, according to the same CDC
data, have been at record low levels for roughly the past three months. For the
week ending on Aug. 3, there were 618 deaths recorded across the country, far
lower than the roughly 2,000 deaths that were reported every week during the winter
of 2023–2024, when there was the most-recent nationwide increase in COVID-19.
In
the winter of 2020–2021, upward of 25,000 COVID-19 related deaths were tallied
each week, according to CDC data.
In
the current wave of COVID-19, the agency’s Nowcast tracker, which displays
virus estimates for two-week periods, shows the Omicron-derived KP.3.1.1 strain
accounting for 36.8 percent of positive infections, while the KP.3 variant is
at 16.8 percent.
A
spokesperson for the CDC told The Epoch Times earlier in August that the
KP.3.1.1 variant “is very similar to other circulating variants in the United
States, and all current lineages are descendants of JN.1, which emerged in late
2023.”
“At
this time, we anticipate that COVID-19 treatments and vaccines will continue to
work against all circulating variants,” the CDC spokesperson said, adding that
the health agency is monitoring the severity of variants and whether vaccines
are effective.
There
is no information “currently indicating that this variant causes more severe
COVID-19,” the CDC said, and it is expected to cause symptoms similar to
those of other variants.
Also
in August, the CDC reported that COVID-19 is
no longer a top cause of death in the United States. The disease was listed on
49,928 death certificates in 2023, down from 86,552 in 2022 and a peak of
416,893 in 2021, according to agency data.
More
CDC Says ‘Very High’ COVID-19 Levels Reported in 32 States | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Solar panels:
Great moments from more than 140 years of innovation
By Joe Salas August 19, 202
From a
New York rooftop in the 1800s to their first journey to space. From kidnappings
and bribery to a world-changing mistake with an inkwell... Solar panels are one
of humanity's greatest inventions, and their history is more fun than you
thought.
The
first time anyone installed a photovoltaic solar panel was in 1884, when
Charles Fritts assembled a billiard-table-sized array on a wooden frame, on a
rooftop in New York City. Fritts used selenium coated with a thin film of gold,
achieving less than 1% efficiency in converting sunlight into electricity to
create a current he described as
"continuous, constant and of considerable force."
Fritts'
project didn't go much further – gold and selenium weren't the kind of cheap,
abundant materials that tend to lead to commercially competitive products.
Fast
forward 20 years, and enter Canadian 'serial inventor' George Cove, a polymath
who filed numerous patents around propeller design, tidal energy harvesting, AC
generators, electric clocks and watches. Building on Fritts' work, Cove
developed a "solar
electric generator" using a semiconductor material with
a band gap extremely close to that of silicon – the primary material used in
today's mass-market solar panels – and a battery for energy storage and
release.
Newspapers
at the time reported that this generator cost around US$20 to build (the 1909
equivalent of around US$660 in today's money), and would supply the entire
energy demands of an early-1900s home for around 10 years, removing the need
for homeowners to get themselves wired in to the quickly developing electricity
grid. His 1909 demonstration in Halifax, Nova Scotia, garnered significant
investor interest. By that time, Cove had set up a workshop in New York and
raised $5 million.
However,
his story took a bizarre turn when he claimed he was kidnapped and offered
$25,000 plus a house to abandon his work – not an outrageous assertion for the
times, according to Oxford researcher Dr Sugandha Srivastav, who notes
that, "During that time, Thomas Edison (of Edison Electric) and
J.D. Rockefeller (founder of Standard Oil) were known to deploy a variety of
pernicious tactics to drive competitors out of business."
Cove
claimed he refused the offer, and was subsequently released in the Bronx Zoo.
Critics, however, accused him of staging the incident as part of a scam, or to
create media attention for his business. Whatever the case, Cove's business
quickly tanked and never recovered – and the rise of coal and oil in 1911 soon
overshadowed solar technology, effectively stalling solar innovation for the
best part of 40 years.
----While very little happened
around solar energy itself in the ensuing decades, other key technologies were
being developed that would later underpin its resurgence. In 1918, Jan
Czochralski, a Polish chemist, inadvertently discovered a method for growing
single crystals (monocrystalline) used in semiconductor wafers, now known as
the Czochralski method. It's still the backbone of 90% of all electronics
today.
The
discovery came when Czochralski accidentally dipped his pen into a crucible of
molten tin instead of his inkwell (seems like a reasonable mistake), leading to
the "eureka!" moment when he observed a solidifying strand of tin
hanging from his pen, later verifying it was a single crystal structure.
Solar
languished in the shade, if you'll pardon the pun, until as recently as 1954,
when scientists Gerald Pearson, Calvin Fuller, and Daryl Chapin at Bell Labs –
as in the Bell Telephone Company – developed the first practical silicon solar
cell, boasting a 6% conversion efficiency – vastly improved from the
sub-1%-efficiency cells of the previous century. Their breakthrough utilized
the crystalline silicon method pioneered by Czochralski.
More
Solar panels:
Great moments from more than 140 years of innovation (newatlas.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The
difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.
Albert
Einstein.
No comments:
Post a Comment