Baltic Dry Index. 1827 +72 Brent Crude 80.18
Spot Gold 2514 US 2 Year Yield 3.87 +0.04
In general, corruption tends to exist whenever governments have favors to extend, or something to sell.
Alan Greenspan.
Another end of month, time to dress up stocks and stock indexes once again. The latest spin and hype, no US or global recession. Ignore Nvidia, it will bounce back.
Well maybe, but maybe not, AI is starting to look like the dot.con bubble all over again.
Later today, the US central bank’s favourite measure of US inflation.
Hong
Kong leads Asia markets climb after U.S. data calms recession fears; Australia
nears all time high
Published
Thu, Aug 29 2024 7:58 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets climbed Friday after economic data from the U.S. calmed recessionary
fears, while investors also assessed a slew of data from Japan.
Initial jobless claims in
the U.S. fell to 231,000 from the prior week’s 232,000, but were slightly
higher than the 230,000 expected by Dow Jones.
In
addition, the second-quarter gross domestic product growth was revised higher
to 3% from the initial 2.8% rate.
Inflation
rate in Japan’s capital city of Tokyo rose to 2.6% from June’s 2.2%,
hitting its highest since March.
The
core inflation rate — which strips out prices of fresh food — rose 2.4%, higher
than the 2.2% expected from a Reuters poll of economists. Tokyo’s inflation is
widely considered to be a leading indicator of nationwide trends.
Stronger
inflation numbers offer the Bank of Japan more room too tighten its monetary
policy.
Unemployment in Japan rose to 2.7%, more than the
Reuters estimate of 2.5%.
Retail sales in the country rose 2.6% year on year,
lower than the 2.9% growth expected by Reuters and the revised 3.8% increase
seen in June.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.3%, and
the Topix also climbed 0.37% after the data release.
Hong
Kong Hang Seng index gained
1.81%, leading markets in Asia, while mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 1.72%.
South
Korea’s Kospi gained
0.6%, while the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 0.92%. South Korea’s retail sales dipped 1.9% month on month compared to June. On a
year-on-year basis, retail sales fell 2.1%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.35%,
coming within 30 points of its all-time closing high of 8,114.7.
Overnight
in the U.S., the Dow Jones
Industrial Average climbed to a new record, up 0.59% and closing at
41,335.05. Gains in Goldman
Sachs, Intel and Visa helped lift the blue-chip
average to a new high.
The S&P 500 ended the session
just below the flatline, but the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.23%,
dragged by shares of chipmaker Nvidia,
which slid 6.4%.
Asia stock markets: Japan CPI, unemployment, US GDP (cnbc.com)
S&P
500 futures are little changed as traders brace for key inflation report: Live
updates
Updated
Fri, Aug 30 2024 8:05 PM EDT
S&P
500 futures were near the flatline Thursday night as investors prepared for a
crucial inflation reading that’s closely watched by the Federal Reserve.
Futures
linked to the broad market index ticked up by 0.06%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added
0.2%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were little changed.
In
extended trading, Ulta dropped
about 7% after missing top and bottom line expectations in the second
quarter, while athletic apparel retailer Lululemon Athletica gained 4%
on better-than-expected
earnings. Dell
Technologies added 3% as its fiscal
second quarter results beat estimates, aided by server sales.
The
market has seen choppy trading action this week leading up to Nvidia’s
quarterly results. The artificial intelligence darling slumped on Thursday,
weighing on the S&P 500 and dragging the Nasdaq Composite lower. The Dow
was the outlier among the three major averages, adding more than 240 points to
close at a fresh record.
A
new catalyst for stocks awaits on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET: the personal
consumption expenditures price index. Economists polled by Dow Jones
anticipate a 0.2% monthly increase in July for headline prices, or 2.5% on an
annual basis. The core reading is expected to have gained 0.2% from the prior
month, or 2.7% from 12 months earlier.
The
Fed keeps a close eye on this metric, and it could still influence
policymakers’ rate decision in September.
“The
market is set to absorb the results of the PCE release, with consensus
estimates focused on the core year-over-year report inching slightly higher at
2.7% following 2.6% for the previous print,” said LPL Financial’s chief
global strategist Quincy Krosby.
“Because
there are some Fed members suggesting they need more data to confirm that
inflation is continuing on a downward path before agreeing to cut rates, any
surprise indicating a hotter report could be negative for the market,” she
added.
As
August’s trading winds down, the S&P 500 is on pace for a nearly 1.3% gain
during the month, while the Dow is on track to add 1.2%. The Nasdaq Composite
is the sole loser of the three major averages, off by nearly 0.5% this month.
On
the week, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are on pace for declines of 0.8% and
2%, respectively — the first losing week in three for both indexes. The Dow is
on pace for its third positive week, up 0.4% in the period.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Friday’s
PCE inflation report: Here’s how financial markets may react
Friday’s
PCE report is set to reinforce the expectation that a first rate cut is
imminent, but it may not provide much clarity on how fast and how far the Fed
will ease: market analysts
Last
Updated: Aug. 29, 2024 at 10:13 a.m. ET
First Published: Aug. 29, 2024 at 7:30 a.m. ET
The July personal consumption expenditures
inflation report on Friday is likely to reassure investors that an initial
interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve is in store for next month — but don’t
expect the stock market to celebrate, according to market experts.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is
expected to show that U.S. consumer prices ticked up slightly in July,
complicating the timetable for the central bank to cut policy rates next month.
Investors worry that the latest report may not provide enough clarity to the
financial markets on how fast and how far the Fed will ease.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect
the headline PCE price index to remain steady at 2.5% year over year in July,
while the core PCE, a more closely watched measure that strips out volatile
food and energy costs, is forecast to drift higher to 2.7%, from 2.6% in the
previous month.
“The September cut is firm enough that the
PCE trend is not going to change that,” said Burns McKinney, managing director
and portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group. “The Fed has already made up
their mind that they’ve already telegraphed very firmly and very dovishly that
they are absolutely going to start the rate-cutting cycle in September.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week gave his
strongest signal yet, saying that “the time has come” for monetary easing as economic
data over the past few months have convinced policy makers that inflation is
firmly on the path back to the central bank’s 2% target.
Some investors think the upcoming July
inflation data, if in line with expectations, would make it hard to justify the
Fed’s “sudden new embrace” of interest-rate cuts. “A single cut in September,
okay. But to forecast multiple cuts off this [PCE] data seems unjustified,”
said Barbara Rockefeller, president and chief economist at Rockefeller Treasury
Services.
But others say that the disinflation
momentum could still be sustained despite the anticipated modest uptick in the
core PCE. “Powell has always warned against getting too caught up in a single
data point, and if you look at the trend, regardless of what [the data release]
does, the [disinflation] trend has been pretty well locked in,” McKinney told
MarketWatch via phone on Tuesday.
More
Friday’s PCE inflation report: Here’s how financial markets may react - MarketWatch
Finally, yet more EV fire news.
Cybertruck Catches Fire After Running Into Fire
Hydrant and Getting Wet
Wed 28 August 2024 at 9:18 pm BST
A Tesla Cybertruck burst into flames after
crashing into a fire hydrant outside a Bass Pro Shop in Harlingen, Texas — and
getting doused in copious amounts of water, igniting the battery.
As local
news station Valley Central reports, first responders
were optimistic that they had successfully battled the flames, only for the
fire to resume after they stopped to spray the truck's battery with even more
water.
It's unclear if any injuries resulted from
the accident.
The incident highlights just how difficult
it is to put out a burning EV — even if it happens to crash into a device
intended to fight fires. Fire departments have
had to change tactics,
using full PPE due to toxic fumes, tapping multiple fire hydrants or multiple
water tankers, and developing new solutions like EV
fire-specific fire blankets.
Smoke Show
Ironically, Tesla had just
released a detailed
rescue sheet for its Cybertruck last week. The guide is designed for
first responders, informing them where the vehicle's low and high-voltage power
cables terminate.
In case of fire, Tesla advises responders
not to "submerge vehicle to extinguish/cool battery fire."
"Use of firefighting foam is not
recommended and only water should be used to cool the battery enclosure,"
the rescue sheet reads.
Over the years, first responders have
found out the hard way that it takes far more water to put out an EV fire. In
2021, Austin Fire Department division chief Thayer Smith said that Tesla
vehicles may take up to 30,000 to 40,000 gallons of water — roughly 40 times as
much as is needed to put out a combustion engine car.
And with more EVs being produced than ever
before, those kinds of incidents can be devastating. A lithium-ion battery
fire is still extremely dangerous. In 2019, the family of a Tesla Model S
owner, who died after being trapped inside his burning Model S, sued
the carmaker,
arguing that the car's retractable door handles malfunctioned.
While it's still unclear if anybody was
hurt during the latest fire, we've already come across incidents involving the
Cybertruck that didn't end well.
Earlier this month, a Texas driver died
after his Cybertruck crashed into a culvert and caught fire.
Cybertruck Catches Fire After Running Into Fire Hydrant and Getting Wet (yahoo.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The US could enter a recession if the Fed doesn't cut rates, strategists say
Thu,
Aug 29, 2024, 2:02 PM GMT+1
The
US economy risks a recession if the US Federal Reserve does not cut rates,
according to Macquarie strategists in a Wednesday note.
Their
assessment is based on US jobs data and consumer sentiment.
"We're
not saying that a recession is coming, but absent Fed rate cuts that will take
place, a recession would be much likelier," wrote Thierry Wizman and
Gareth Berry, FX and rates strategists at Macquarie, in a Wednesday note.
The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July from 4.1% in June, according to the Bureau
of Labor Statistics.
Meanwhile,
the Conference Board consumer sentiment report released on
Tuesday showed "mixed feelings."
"Consumers'
assessments of the current labor situation, while still positive, continued to
weaken, and assessments of the labor market going forward were more
pessimistic. This likely reflects the recent increase in unemployment,"
said Dana M. Peterson, the chief economist at The Conference Board, in a press
release.
Consumers
were also a bit less positive about future income, Peterson added.
"What
was worrisome was that respondents saying that jobs were hard to get inched
higher, while those saying jobs were plentiful edged lower," wrote the
Macquarie strategists.
The
spread between the two measures tracks the unemployment rate very closely,
according to Macquarie's analysis.
This
spread pushed to a new year-to-date high in the August survey. It sits at the
widest it has been since March 2021 — when the unemployment rate was 6.1%.
"We
think that it would be highly unlikely that the unemployment rate would not be
rising against the widening of this spread," the Macquarie strategists
wrote.
Markets
have been pricing in interest rate cuts following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole last week that
"the time has come for policy to adjust" — a clear signal that the
central bank is poised to cut rates.
Macquarie
is just one of the latest on Wall Street to weigh in on how the US jobs outlook
could impact the Fed's rate decision, which could take down the current 5.25%
to 5.50% target.
JPMorgan on Tuesday said the Fed is likely to deliver
steep rate cuts because it's been "shaken" by a weakening labor
market.
CME's FedWatch tool shows investors largely pricing in
a 25-basis-point cut at the next Fed meeting held over two days from September 17.
The US could enter a recession if the Fed doesn't cut rates, strategists say (yahoo.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
A
new Covid vaccine is available. Here’s why some people might not want it right
away
August
28, 2024
New
Covid vaccines were
approved by U.S. regulators last week amid a continuing surge of the virus.
The
updated shots are designed to target the
latest Omicron variants, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
has recommended them for Americans aged six months and older.
After
getting the OK from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), major
manufacturers Pfizer and Moderna are slated to begin shipping
immediately. Pfizer said the vaccines will be available in pharmacies,
hospitals, and clinics nationwide in the coming days.
In
a blog post, Moderna echoed that timeframe. A third manufacturer, Novavax, said
last week that it is working with the FDA as the agency considers authorizing
its latest formula vaccine for emergency use.
“Novavax’s
intent is to provide access to our vaccine as a choice for consumers this
season,” President and CEO John Jacobs said, in a statement.
Covid
cases have spiked around the country, ahead of peak season with CDC data
showing testing positivity rates hovering at around 18 percent in August -
although fewer Americans are testing. Emergency department visits and
hospitalizations were also up this month.
---- Health officials
say getting vaccinated is especially important for certain groups. This
includes those 65 and older; people who have yet to receive a vaccine; people
who live in long-term care facilities; those risk of severe infection; and
women who are pregnant, may become pregnant, or are breastfeeding.
However,
under specific circumstances, the CDC advises some Americans to wait before
getting the new shots.
If
you just recovered from Covid, you may consider delaying your vaccine by three
months.
In
addition, if you have, or have recently had, multisystem inflammatory syndrome,
the CDC says you should wait to get vaccinated until after recovery and until
90 days have passed since the diagnosis of MIS-A or MIS-C: the types of the
syndrome in adults and children.
There
are other reasons to wait. Vaccine protection wanes over time, and people may
choose to hit pause before the next Covid wave hits. Respiratory
viruses spread more easily indoors and cold air may weaken resistance
to such viruses, according to Johns Hopkins Medicine.
The
variants that spread could still change in the next few months, too.
More
A new Covid vaccine is available. Here’s why some people might not want it right away (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Global solar generation overtakes wind for
longest ever stretch
By Gavin
Maguire August 29,
2024 6:59 AM GMT+1
LITTLETON, Colorado, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Global
electricity generation from solar farms has exceeded generation from wind farms
since May, marking the longest ever stretch when solar power has been the top
source of utility-scale renewable electricity worldwide.
Solar electricity generation exceeded wind
generation in May by 1.65 terawatt hours (TWh), and in June by 9.57 TWh,
according to energy think tank Ember.
The data on global generation for the month of July
has not yet been released, but will most likely show an even larger generation
surplus for solar assets given that July is the peak month for solar output
across the northern hemisphere.
August data is also likely to show solar generation
topping wind output, as August is usually the second highest solar generation
month and also marks the typical annual low point for global wind generation
due to low wind speeds at turbine level.
Previously, solar power generation only exceeded
wind generation in August and June of 2023 and has never before strung together
such a sustained stretch of higher generation.
However, once solar output levels dip from next
month due to the changing angle of the sun's rays, wind output will regain its
spot as the top renewable power globally, aided by rising wind speeds as winter
sets in across Europe, North America and Northern Asia.
And for 2024 as a whole, total wind-powered
electricity generation will likely be at least 30% greater than total solar
generation, given that the peak wind generation period is during winter when
wind output can be more than twice solar output.
Wind farms have been by far the largest source of
renewable electricity output for over 20 years, and in 2023 generated 2,311 TWh
of electricity compared to 1,632 TWh by solar assets.
However, solar generation has grown twice as quickly
as wind generation over the past five years, due in large part to the far lower
cost and speedier construction times of solar farms relative to wind projects.
Solar's stronger momentum has continued in 2024,
with solar generation during the first half of 2024 climbing by 26.5% from the
first half of 2023, compared to 8% growth in wind output.
More
Global solar generation overtakes wind for longest ever stretch | Reuters
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and a holiday weekend in America. But what will September and October
bring for stocks, the global economy, two continuing never ending wars, de-dollarisation,
soaring US federal debt? Comedy showtime starts in the US presidential election
from next week. Have a great weekend everyone.
A
cigarette is a pinch of tobacco rolled in paper with fire at one end and a fool
at the other.
George
Bernard Shaw.
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