Baltic Dry Index. 1683 -15 Brent Crude 79.25
Spot Gold 2421 US 2 Year Yield 4.04 +0.04
50 years ago today, August 9, 1974, just before noon, President Nixon left office and left the White House by helicopter. He and his family were headed to the airport to fly back to San Clemente, California. Soon afterwards, Vice President Ford was sworn in as US President.
In the stock casinos, volatility is the new norm. When it’s time to buy there are few sellers. When it’s time to sell there are few buyers.
Quant traders, (quantitative trading,) that is, automated computer program traders, stampede back and forth in a growing summer vacuum. Few traders make money in whipsaw markets, quants or not. The “little people” traders have been hammered out of trading for now.
Besides, we still don’t know where the last few week’s massive losses went. Who went bust, who is covering up massive losses? Who is about to get sued? Who is about to sue?
Asia-Pacific markets higher after U.S. stocks
bounce back from rout
Published Thu, Aug 8 2024 7:43 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded higher on
Friday, tracking gains on Wall Street after new
labor market data boosted investor confidence in the U.S. economy and
eased recession concerns following a sharp market sell-off earlier in the week.
Futures for Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.3%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 added
1.15%, while the broad-based Topix traded 1.15% higher. South Korea’s Kospi inched 1.32% higher,
while the small-cap Kosdaq jumped 2.89%.
Hong Kong Hang Seng index rose 1.77% in
its first hour of trade. Mainland China’s CSI 300 inched up 0.14%.
Earlier this week, global equities and
currencies plunged after U.S.
employment data renewed recession fears and investors started to unwind
their yen “carry trades.”
Investors are parsing China’s
consumer price index and producer price index for July.
China’s consumer price index climbed 0.5%
year-on-year, beating Reuters’ estimates of a 0.3% rise. The figure compares to
a 0.2% climb in June.
The producer price index for July fell by
0.8% from a year ago. That was slightly less than the 0.9% forecast decline,
and unchanged from June’s 0.8% drop.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 advanced 2.3%,
closing at 5,319.31 and posting its best day since November 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged
683.04 points, or 1.76%, to 39,446.49. The Nasdaq Composite added
2.87%, ending at 16,660.02.
Initial filings for unemployment
insurance totaled
less than anticipated last week, countering other indications of a
weakening labor market. First-time filings for jobless benefits came in at
233,000 last week, down 17,000 from the previous week and lower than the Dow
Jones estimate for 240,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday, offering
markets some relief amid signs that job growth is slowing.
Asia markets live updates: China CPI, PPI, Nikkei 225 (cnbc.com)
S&P 500 futures inch higher after index
registers best day since 2022: Live updates
Updated Fri, Aug 9 2024 12:17 AM EDT
S&P 500 futures inched
higher early Friday after investors regained some ground from this week’s
sell-off.
Futures tied to the broad-market index
inched higher by about 0.16%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose
about 0.28%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched
up 0.1%.
In after-hours
trading, Paramount Global climbed
more than 5% after posting adjusted earnings that trounced estimates and
announcing it’s cutting 15% of its U.S. workforce. E.l.f. Beauty slipped about
10% after posting cautious
guidance.
Stocks rebounded during Thursday’s regular
trading after plunging earlier in the week, as the latest weekly
jobless claims number helped alleviate investors’ concerns about the
strength of the labor market and state of the U.S. economy.
The S&P 500 advanced 2.3% to
end Thursday, posting its best session since November 2022, while the
30-stock Dow surged
roughly 683 points, or nearly 1.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added
2.87%.
Investors have been attempting to revive
the market’s momentum this year after Monday’s steep global sell-off, which was sparked by
last Friday’s disappointing U.S. payrolls data, concerns about the Federal
Reserve’s rate-cutting timeline and the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry
trade.
Investors seem to have bought
the dip, deeming the pullback to be a fairly healthy correction.
“The fundamental backdrop remains
favorable for stocks to trend higher, particularly for investors with time
horizons that extend to year-end and beyond,” said Terry Sandven, chief equity
strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “Near term, heightened levels of
volatility are likely to be more the norm versus the exception, as broad-market
valuations remain elevated and seasonality trends suggest tempered returns
during the ‘dog days of summer.’”
Even as the major averages surged on
Thursday, they remain down on a week-to-date basis. The S&P 500 is off 0.5%
this week, while the Nasdaq and the Dow are down roughly 0.7%. Both the
broad-market S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are on pace for their fourth losing
week.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news. Food price inflation rises in China. The first of the CrowdStrike lawsuits looms against CrowdStrike and Microsoft. Is there a way to invest in the US Tort Bar?
China’s consumer prices pick up more than expected
in July, up by 0.5%
Published Thu, Aug 8 2024 9:36 PM EDT
BEIJING — China’s consumer prices rose by
a more-than-expected 0.5% in July from a year ago, boosted by a surge in pork
prices, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released
Friday.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a
slight pickup in the consumer price index to 0.3% in July from a year ago,
versus 0.2% in June.
The 0.5% CPI increase in July was the
highest since a 0.7% rise in February, according to official data accessed via
Wind Information. China’s biggest holiday of the year, the Lunar New Year, fell
in February this year.
Prices of pork, a widely consumed food
staple in China, surged by 20.4% year-on-year in July. That was the biggest
increase since December 2022, according to Wind.
Pork prices play a significant role in
China’s consumer price index, but can be prone to large swings due to disease
or other factors affecting production.
Core CPI, which strips out food and energy
prices, rose by 0.4% year-on-year in July. That’s down from 0.6% in June.
“Conditions are in place to see inflation
trend a little higher in the coming months but it should not impede further
monetary easing,” Lynn Song, chief economist, Greater China, ING, said in a
note Friday.
“With low inflation and weak credit
activity, domestic factors continue to favor further monetary policy easing,”
she said. “We continue to look for at least one more rate cut this year with
the potential for more if global rate cuts accelerate.”
Song pointed out that the price war in autos, falling
smartphone prices and a drop in rents posed near-term drags on non-food prices
in China.
More
China's consumer prices pick up more than expected in July, up by 0.5% (cnbc.com)
Delta says chaos after CrowdStrike outage
cost it $380 million in revenue
Published Thu, Aug 8 2024 3:22 PM EDT
Delta
Air Lines on Thursday said last month’s CrowdStrike outage and
subsequent mass
flight cancellations cost it some $550 million and reiterated that it
is pursuing damages against
the company as well as Microsoft.
The financial impact includes a $380
million revenue hit in the current quarter “primarily driven by refunding
customers for cancelled flights and providing customer compensation in the form
of cash and SkyMiles,” the Atlanta-based airline said in a securities filing.
The incident, in which it canceled some
7,000 flights, also meant a $170 million expense “associated with the
technology-driven outage and subsequent operational recovery,” the carrier
said, adding that its fuel bill will likely be $50 million lower because of the
scrubbed flights.
Delta struggled more
than its competitors to recover from the July
19 outage, which took millions of Windows-based machines offline around the
world. The disruptions occurred at the height of the summer travel season,
stranding thousands of Delta customers, a rare incident for the
carrier that markets itself as a premium
carrier that gets top marks for reliability.
“An operational disruption of this length
and magnitude is unacceptable, and our customers and employees deserve better,”
CEO Ed Bastian said in the filing. “Since the incident, our people have
returned the operation to an industry-leading position that is consistent with
the level of performance our customers expect from Delta.”
Delta’s cancellations in the days after
the outage topped its tally for all of 2019. The U.S. Department of
Transportation last month said it is investigating
Delta’s response to the outage and flight cancellations.
CrowdStrike responded in a statement on
Thursday that Delta “continues to push a misleading narrative” and said that
the company’s chief security officer was in “direct contact” with Delta’s chief
information and security officer “within hours of the incident, providing
information and offering support.”
In a letter to CrowdStrike’s attorney on
Thursday, Delta’s lawyer David Boies said 1.3 million customers were affected
by the outage and that it shut down 37,000 Delta computers.
CrowdStrike and Microsoft lawyers earlier
this week fired back at Delta, saying they reached out to offer Delta help.
Microsoft on Wednesday suggested that
Delta hasn’t invested enough in its technology compared with rivals.
“If CrowdStrike genuinely seeks to avoid a
lawsuit by Delta, then it must accept real responsibility for its actions and
compensate Delta for the severe damage it caused to Delta’s business,
reputation, and goodwill,” Boies said in the letter to CrowdStrike on Thursday.
About 60% of Delta’s “mission-critical
applications” and their data depend on Microsoft and CrowdStrike, he said,
adding that the disruption “required significant human intervention by skilled
crew specialists to get Delta people and aircraft to the right locations to
resume normal, safe operation.”
Delta says chaos after CrowdStrike outage cost it $550 million (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Disney's
theme parks are struggling, and it's another warning sign for the economy
August 7, 2024
Disney's
theme parks are struggling in another warning signal for the US economy.
The
entertainment giant reported weaker-than-expected results in its theme-parks
division as it announced third-quarter
earnings on Wednesday,
in another sign that consumers
are reining in spending as economic storm clouds gather.
Disney's
operating profit for its domestic parks and experiences division declined by 3%
from the previous year to $2.2 billion, while revenues grew by 2% to $8.4
billion.
The
company blamed the decrease in operating income at its domestic theme parks
on high
costs linked to inflation and a larger drop in consumer demand than
expected.
Disney
warned that the "demand moderation" for its parks and experiences
would likely continue and could impact the next few quarters.
In
an executive commentary shared with Business Insider, the company said that
"despite recent economic uncertainty," it is "confident about
the long-term opportunities" in its experiences business.
Disney's
theme parks have been a key driver of revenues in recent years, with the
company committing
an extra $60 billion last year to expand them further.
As
high inflation has hammered Americans' wallets, some consumers have cut back
spending on trips and theme parks. Comcast also saw revenues from its Universal
Studios parks fall in its second-quarter earnings in July.
Cuts
in consumer spending have been felt across the US economy.
Fast-food
chains such as McDonald's, Burger King, and Taco Bell have all launched
discounts and value meals to try to lure in cost-conscious consumers as
some reported slowing sales.
Starbucks
also reported a decline in visits due to a "challenging consumer
environment."
It's
not all bad news for Disney, however.
The
entertainment behemoth's earnings were buoyed by strong results in its combined
streaming division, which turned a profit for the first time, and big hits at
the box office, including the Pixar
film "Inside Out 2."
Disney's theme parks are struggling, and it's another warning sign for the economy (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Scientists
uncover cause of Covid-19 diarrhea, pointing to potential treatments
August 8, 2024
Researchers
at Johns Hopkins Medicine have discovered how COVID-19 causes diarrhea,
offering clues for potential treatments.
By
using human stem cells to create a “mini intestine-in-a-dish,” they identified
several molecular mechanisms behind this symptom.
The
findings, published in Cellular and Molecular
Gastroenterology and Hepatology, highlight how the virus affects the
gut.
Along
with common COVID-19 symptoms like fever, sore throat, and cough, up to half of
those infected experience diarrhea.
About
30% of these cases lead to long COVID, characterized by persistent symptoms
such as chronic pain, brain fog, and intense fatigue.
Dr.
Mark Donowitz, Emeritus Professor of Medicine and Physiology at Johns Hopkins
University School of Medicine, explains that while COVID-19 diarrhea isn’t
life-threatening like cholera, it can indicate a severe infection and a higher
risk of long COVID.
Previous
research showed that ACE2 (an enzyme the virus attaches to) and TMPRSS2 (an
enzyme that allows the virus to enter cells) are present in the intestine.
However, the detailed mechanisms causing diarrhea were unclear until now.
To
uncover these mechanisms, Donowitz and his team used a model of human
intestines called enteroids. These are formed by stimulating human stem cells
to develop into the various cells lining the intestine, creating a single layer
of cells in a petri dish.
The
researchers exposed these enteroids to live SARS-CoV-2 virus and observed
changes in the gut cells’ protein expression and function. In typical diarrhea
caused by bacteria, viruses, or medication, changes in transport proteins move
molecules across cell membranes, inhibiting sodium and chloride absorption
while increasing chloride secretion. COVID-19 diarrhea showed both effects,
which is common in many diarrheal diseases.
Interestingly,
the chloride secretion in COVID-19 diarrhea involved a different class of
proteins called calcium-activated chloride channels, unlike other diarrheal
diseases that activate the cystic fibrosis protein.
Another
unique aspect of COVID-19 diarrhea is that it results from both direct effects
on transport proteins and inflammation, similar to how COVID-19 affects the
lungs and other body parts. This suggests that using inhibitors to control this
inflammatory response might help treat COVID-19 diarrhea.
Dr.
Donowitz notes that understanding long COVID remains a significant challenge,
as the virus can persist in the intestine for a long time. The next step is to
determine what allows the virus to live in the intestine and sustain itself
over extended periods.
In
summary, the research provides a deeper understanding of COVID-19-related
diarrhea and opens new avenues for potential treatments.
By
targeting the identified mechanisms and inflammatory responses, future
therapies could help manage this unpleasant symptom and improve outcomes for
those suffering from COVID-19 and long COVID.
If
you care about COVID, please read studies about vitamin D
deficiency linked to severe COVID-19, death, and how diets could
help manage post-COVID syndrome.
Scientists uncover cause of Covid-19 diarrhea, pointing to potential treatments (knowridge.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, more bad news for EVs. The marketing
upside, “Buy an EV: save on cremation costs?” EVs anyone?
Huge Fire
Sparked by a Mercedes-Benz EV Adds to Safety Concerns Dogging Industry
August
8, 2024
SEOUL—It
took just seconds for an underground South Korean residential parking lot to be
engulfed in flames. The culprit: a Mercedes-Benz EQE electric vehicle that
hadn’t been charging.
The
blaze incinerated dozens of cars nearby, scorched another 100 vehicles and
forced hundreds of residents to emergency shelters as the buildings above the
parking lot lost power and electricity. Nobody died, but the fire took eight
hours to extinguish.
The
blaze dominated national news in South Korea. Some organizations are pushing
for EVs to be parked outdoors, residents are protesting and lawmakers are
proposing new safety measures.
The
consternation in South Korea—home to Hyundai Motor, Kia and top battery
makers—represents the latest test of faith for an EV industry dogged by safety
concerns. Internal-combustion-engine cars are more likely to catch fire than
EVs, according to South Korea’s national fire agency. But when EVs do burst
into flames, the rechargeable lithium-ion batteries get hotter and the fire
takes longer to stamp out.
In
recent years, General Motors recalled tens of thousands of its Chevrolet Bolts
in the U.S. over risk of battery fires. Hyundai pulled roughly 80,000 electric
SUVs after roughly a dozen caught fire. Last September, a Nissan Leaf ignited
while charging in Tennessee, and the fire required more than 45 times the water
needed for a gas-powered car fire to be extinguished.
Automakers
have grown more cautious about EV launches amid modest demand. Sales of fully
electric models in the U.S. rose 6.8% through the first half of the year,
according to Motor Intelligence data, a sharp deceleration from near 50% growth
in 2023.
The
perceived risk of EVs is particularly acute in tightly packed South Korea, a
country about the size of Indiana with roughly 52 million people. Seoul, the
capital city, has a significantly higher population density than New York or
Tokyo. Around half of South Koreans live in the greater Seoul metropolitan
area.
Outdoor
residential parking lots are relatively uncommon. The nation’s ubiquitous
high-rise apartments often feature underground parking, where firefighters must
contend with restricted access.
The
country had already been on edge about battery-related fires, following a blaze
at a lithium-battery factory in late June that killed nearly two dozen people.
The Mercedes EV blaze, in the port city of Incheon, occurred last week. Then,
on Tuesday, a Kia EV6 caught fire in a parking lot in a central South Korean
town.
Mercedes-Benz
said it would cooperate with local authorities to determine the cause of the
fire, a local spokesman said. A Kia spokeswoman called the incident isolated
and added that the firm would work with authorities to determine what went
wrong.
In
recent days, LG Display recommended that employees at its main factory complex
park their EVs outside. The country’s main international trade association,
whose offices are located in central Seoul, said it would accelerate plans to
relocate EV charging ports to its aboveground lot. One of the country’s largest
telecommunications firms, KT, has held discussions about barring EVs from
parking underground.
More
Huge Fire Sparked
by a Mercedes-Benz EV Adds to Safety Concerns Dogging Industry (msn.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and the weekend Iran retaliates
against Israel? Israel counter attacks Iran? More earthquakes in California? Japan? More EV
fires? What else could possibly go wrong? Have a great weekend everyone.
There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world.
John Maynard Keynes.
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