Friday, 9 August 2024

Stocks, Volatility Rules, OK! Being Rational In An Irrational World. 50 Years On.

Baltic Dry Index. 1683 -15       Brent Crude  79.25

Spot Gold 2421             US 2 Year Yield 4.04 +0.04

50 years ago today, August 9, 1974, just before noon, President Nixon left office and left the White House by helicopter. He and his family were headed to the airport to fly back to San Clemente, California. Soon afterwards, Vice President Ford was sworn in as US President.

In the stock casinos, volatility is the new norm. When it’s time to buy there are few sellers. When it’s time to sell there are few buyers.

Quant traders, (quantitative trading,) that is, automated computer program traders, stampede back and forth in a growing summer vacuum. Few traders make money in whipsaw markets, quants or not. The “little people” traders have been hammered out of trading for now.

Besides, we still don’t know where the last few week’s massive losses went. Who went bust, who is covering up massive losses? Who is about to get sued? Who is about to sue?

Asia-Pacific markets higher after U.S. stocks bounce back from rout

Published Thu, Aug 8 2024 7:43 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded higher on Friday, tracking gains on Wall Street after new labor market data boosted investor confidence in the U.S. economy and eased recession concerns following a sharp market sell-off earlier in the week.

Futures for Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.3%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 1.15%, while the broad-based Topix traded 1.15% higher. South Korea’s Kospi inched 1.32% higher, while the small-cap Kosdaq jumped 2.89%.

Hong Kong Hang Seng index rose 1.77% in its first hour of trade. Mainland China’s CSI 300 inched up 0.14%.

Earlier this week, global equities and currencies plunged after U.S. employment data renewed recession fears and investors started to unwind their yen “carry trades.”

Investors are parsing China’s consumer price index and producer price index for July.

China’s consumer price index climbed 0.5% year-on-year, beating Reuters’ estimates of a 0.3% rise. The figure compares to a 0.2% climb in June.

The producer price index for July fell by 0.8% from a year ago. That was slightly less than the 0.9% forecast decline, and unchanged from June’s 0.8% drop.

Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 advanced 2.3%, closing at 5,319.31 and posting its best day since November 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 683.04 points, or 1.76%, to 39,446.49. The Nasdaq Composite added 2.87%, ending at 16,660.02.

Initial filings for unemployment insurance totaled less than anticipated last week, countering other indications of a weakening labor market. First-time filings for jobless benefits came in at 233,000 last week, down 17,000 from the previous week and lower than the Dow Jones estimate for 240,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday, offering markets some relief amid signs that job growth is slowing.

Asia markets live updates: China CPI, PPI, Nikkei 225 (cnbc.com)

S&P 500 futures inch higher after index registers best day since 2022: Live updates

Updated Fri, Aug 9 2024 12:17 AM EDT

S&P 500 futures inched higher early Friday after investors regained some ground from this week’s sell-off.

Futures tied to the broad-market index inched higher by about 0.16%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 0.28%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 0.1%.

In after-hours tradingParamount Global climbed more than 5% after posting adjusted earnings that trounced estimates and announcing it’s cutting 15% of its U.S. workforce. E.l.f. Beauty slipped about 10% after posting cautious guidance.

Stocks rebounded during Thursday’s regular trading after plunging earlier in the week, as the latest weekly jobless claims number helped alleviate investors’ concerns about the strength of the labor market and state of the U.S. economy.

The S&P 500 advanced 2.3% to end Thursday, posting its best session since November 2022, while the 30-stock Dow surged roughly 683 points, or nearly 1.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 2.87%.

Investors have been attempting to revive the market’s momentum this year after Monday’s steep global sell-off, which was sparked by last Friday’s disappointing U.S. payrolls data, concerns about the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting timeline and the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade.

Investors seem to have bought the dip, deeming the pullback to be a fairly healthy correction.

“The fundamental backdrop remains favorable for stocks to trend higher, particularly for investors with time horizons that extend to year-end and beyond,” said Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “Near term, heightened levels of volatility are likely to be more the norm versus the exception, as broad-market valuations remain elevated and seasonality trends suggest tempered returns during the ‘dog days of summer.’”

Even as the major averages surged on Thursday, they remain down on a week-to-date basis. The S&P 500 is off 0.5% this week, while the Nasdaq and the Dow are down roughly 0.7%. Both the broad-market S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are on pace for their fourth losing week.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

In other news. Food price inflation rises in China. The first of the CrowdStrike lawsuits looms against CrowdStrike and Microsoft. Is there a way to invest in the US Tort Bar?

China’s consumer prices pick up more than expected in July, up by 0.5%

Published Thu, Aug 8 2024 9:36 PM EDT

BEIJING — China’s consumer prices rose by a more-than-expected 0.5% in July from a year ago, boosted by a surge in pork prices, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Friday.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a slight pickup in the consumer price index to 0.3% in July from a year ago, versus 0.2% in June.

The 0.5% CPI increase in July was the highest since a 0.7% rise in February, according to official data accessed via Wind Information. China’s biggest holiday of the year, the Lunar New Year, fell in February this year.

Prices of pork, a widely consumed food staple in China, surged by 20.4% year-on-year in July. That was the biggest increase since December 2022, according to Wind.

Pork prices play a significant role in China’s consumer price index, but can be prone to large swings due to disease or other factors affecting production.

Core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% year-on-year in July. That’s down from 0.6% in June.

“Conditions are in place to see inflation trend a little higher in the coming months but it should not impede further monetary easing,” Lynn Song, chief economist, Greater China, ING, said in a note Friday.

“With low inflation and weak credit activity, domestic factors continue to favor further monetary policy easing,” she said. “We continue to look for at least one more rate cut this year with the potential for more if global rate cuts accelerate.”

Song pointed out that the price war in autos, falling smartphone prices and a drop in rents posed near-term drags on non-food prices in China.

More

China's consumer prices pick up more than expected in July, up by 0.5% (cnbc.com)

Delta says chaos after CrowdStrike outage cost it $380 million in revenue

Published Thu, Aug 8 2024 3:22 PM EDT

Delta Air Lines on Thursday said last month’s CrowdStrike outage and subsequent mass flight cancellations cost it some $550 million and reiterated that it is pursuing damages against the company as well as Microsoft.

The financial impact includes a $380 million revenue hit in the current quarter “primarily driven by refunding customers for cancelled flights and providing customer compensation in the form of cash and SkyMiles,” the Atlanta-based airline said in a securities filing.

The incident, in which it canceled some 7,000 flights, also meant a $170 million expense “associated with the technology-driven outage and subsequent operational recovery,” the carrier said, adding that its fuel bill will likely be $50 million lower because of the scrubbed flights.

Delta struggled more than its competitors to recover from the July 19 outage, which took millions of Windows-based machines offline around the world. The disruptions occurred at the height of the summer travel season, stranding thousands of Delta customers, a rare incident for the carrier that markets itself as a premium carrier that gets top marks for reliability.

“An operational disruption of this length and magnitude is unacceptable, and our customers and employees deserve better,” CEO Ed Bastian said in the filing. “Since the incident, our people have returned the operation to an industry-leading position that is consistent with the level of performance our customers expect from Delta.”

Delta’s cancellations in the days after the outage topped its tally for all of 2019. The U.S. Department of Transportation last month said it is investigating Delta’s response to the outage and flight cancellations.

CrowdStrike responded in a statement on Thursday that Delta “continues to push a misleading narrative” and said that the company’s chief security officer was in “direct contact” with Delta’s chief information and security officer “within hours of the incident, providing information and offering support.”

In a letter to CrowdStrike’s attorney on Thursday, Delta’s lawyer David Boies said 1.3 million customers were affected by the outage and that it shut down 37,000 Delta computers.

CrowdStrike and Microsoft lawyers earlier this week fired back at Delta, saying they reached out to offer Delta help. Microsoft on Wednesday suggested that Delta hasn’t invested enough in its technology compared with rivals.

“If CrowdStrike genuinely seeks to avoid a lawsuit by Delta, then it must accept real responsibility for its actions and compensate Delta for the severe damage it caused to Delta’s business, reputation, and goodwill,” Boies said in the letter to CrowdStrike on Thursday.

About 60% of Delta’s “mission-critical applications” and their data depend on Microsoft and CrowdStrike, he said, adding that the disruption “required significant human intervention by skilled crew specialists to get Delta people and aircraft to the right locations to resume normal, safe operation.”

Delta says chaos after CrowdStrike outage cost it $550 million (cnbc.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Disney's theme parks are struggling, and it's another warning sign for the economy

August 7, 2024

Disney's theme parks are struggling in another warning signal for the US economy.

The entertainment giant reported weaker-than-expected results in its theme-parks division as it announced third-quarter earnings on Wednesday, in another sign that consumers are reining in spending as economic storm clouds gather.

Disney's operating profit for its domestic parks and experiences division declined by 3% from the previous year to $2.2 billion, while revenues grew by 2% to $8.4 billion.

The company blamed the decrease in operating income at its domestic theme parks on high costs linked to inflation and a larger drop in consumer demand than expected.

Disney warned that the "demand moderation" for its parks and experiences would likely continue and could impact the next few quarters.

In an executive commentary shared with Business Insider, the company said that "despite recent economic uncertainty," it is "confident about the long-term opportunities" in its experiences business.

Disney's theme parks have been a key driver of revenues in recent years, with the company committing an extra $60 billion last year to expand them further.

As high inflation has hammered Americans' wallets, some consumers have cut back spending on trips and theme parks. Comcast also saw revenues from its Universal Studios parks fall in its second-quarter earnings in July.

Cuts in consumer spending have been felt across the US economy.

Fast-food chains such as McDonald's, Burger King, and Taco Bell have all launched discounts and value meals to try to lure in cost-conscious consumers as some reported slowing sales.

Starbucks also reported a decline in visits due to a "challenging consumer environment."

It's not all bad news for Disney, however.

The entertainment behemoth's earnings were buoyed by strong results in its combined streaming division, which turned a profit for the first time, and big hits at the box office, including the Pixar film "Inside Out 2."

Disney's theme parks are struggling, and it's another warning sign for the economy (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Scientists uncover cause of Covid-19 diarrhea, pointing to potential treatments

August 8, 2024

Researchers at Johns Hopkins Medicine have discovered how COVID-19 causes diarrhea, offering clues for potential treatments.

By using human stem cells to create a “mini intestine-in-a-dish,” they identified several molecular mechanisms behind this symptom.

The findings, published in Cellular and Molecular Gastroenterology and Hepatology, highlight how the virus affects the gut.

Along with common COVID-19 symptoms like fever, sore throat, and cough, up to half of those infected experience diarrhea.

About 30% of these cases lead to long COVID, characterized by persistent symptoms such as chronic pain, brain fog, and intense fatigue.

Dr. Mark Donowitz, Emeritus Professor of Medicine and Physiology at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, explains that while COVID-19 diarrhea isn’t life-threatening like cholera, it can indicate a severe infection and a higher risk of long COVID.

Previous research showed that ACE2 (an enzyme the virus attaches to) and TMPRSS2 (an enzyme that allows the virus to enter cells) are present in the intestine. However, the detailed mechanisms causing diarrhea were unclear until now.

To uncover these mechanisms, Donowitz and his team used a model of human intestines called enteroids. These are formed by stimulating human stem cells to develop into the various cells lining the intestine, creating a single layer of cells in a petri dish.

The researchers exposed these enteroids to live SARS-CoV-2 virus and observed changes in the gut cells’ protein expression and function. In typical diarrhea caused by bacteria, viruses, or medication, changes in transport proteins move molecules across cell membranes, inhibiting sodium and chloride absorption while increasing chloride secretion. COVID-19 diarrhea showed both effects, which is common in many diarrheal diseases.

Interestingly, the chloride secretion in COVID-19 diarrhea involved a different class of proteins called calcium-activated chloride channels, unlike other diarrheal diseases that activate the cystic fibrosis protein.

Another unique aspect of COVID-19 diarrhea is that it results from both direct effects on transport proteins and inflammation, similar to how COVID-19 affects the lungs and other body parts. This suggests that using inhibitors to control this inflammatory response might help treat COVID-19 diarrhea.

Dr. Donowitz notes that understanding long COVID remains a significant challenge, as the virus can persist in the intestine for a long time. The next step is to determine what allows the virus to live in the intestine and sustain itself over extended periods.

In summary, the research provides a deeper understanding of COVID-19-related diarrhea and opens new avenues for potential treatments.

By targeting the identified mechanisms and inflammatory responses, future therapies could help manage this unpleasant symptom and improve outcomes for those suffering from COVID-19 and long COVID.

If you care about COVID, please read studies about vitamin D deficiency linked to severe COVID-19, death, and how diets could help manage post-COVID syndrome.

Scientists uncover cause of Covid-19 diarrhea, pointing to potential treatments (knowridge.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Today, more bad news for EVs. The marketing upside, “Buy an EV: save on cremation costs?” EVs anyone?

Huge Fire Sparked by a Mercedes-Benz EV Adds to Safety Concerns Dogging Industry

August 8, 2024

SEOUL—It took just seconds for an underground South Korean residential parking lot to be engulfed in flames. The culprit: a Mercedes-Benz EQE electric vehicle that hadn’t been charging.

The blaze incinerated dozens of cars nearby, scorched another 100 vehicles and forced hundreds of residents to emergency shelters as the buildings above the parking lot lost power and electricity. Nobody died, but the fire took eight hours to extinguish.

The blaze dominated national news in South Korea. Some organizations are pushing for EVs to be parked outdoors, residents are protesting and lawmakers are proposing new safety measures.

The consternation in South Korea—home to Hyundai Motor, Kia and top battery makers—represents the latest test of faith for an EV industry dogged by safety concerns. Internal-combustion-engine cars are more likely to catch fire than EVs, according to South Korea’s national fire agency. But when EVs do burst into flames, the rechargeable lithium-ion batteries get hotter and the fire takes longer to stamp out.

In recent years, General Motors recalled tens of thousands of its Chevrolet Bolts in the U.S. over risk of battery fires. Hyundai pulled roughly 80,000 electric SUVs after roughly a dozen caught fire. Last September, a Nissan Leaf ignited while charging in Tennessee, and the fire required more than 45 times the water needed for a gas-powered car fire to be extinguished.

Automakers have grown more cautious about EV launches amid modest demand. Sales of fully electric models in the U.S. rose 6.8% through the first half of the year, according to Motor Intelligence data, a sharp deceleration from near 50% growth in 2023.

The perceived risk of EVs is particularly acute in tightly packed South Korea, a country about the size of Indiana with roughly 52 million people. Seoul, the capital city, has a significantly higher population density than New York or Tokyo. Around half of South Koreans live in the greater Seoul metropolitan area.

Outdoor residential parking lots are relatively uncommon. The nation’s ubiquitous high-rise apartments often feature underground parking, where firefighters must contend with restricted access.

The country had already been on edge about battery-related fires, following a blaze at a lithium-battery factory in late June that killed nearly two dozen people. The Mercedes EV blaze, in the port city of Incheon, occurred last week. Then, on Tuesday, a Kia EV6 caught fire in a parking lot in a central South Korean town.

Mercedes-Benz said it would cooperate with local authorities to determine the cause of the fire, a local spokesman said. A Kia spokeswoman called the incident isolated and added that the firm would work with authorities to determine what went wrong.

In recent days, LG Display recommended that employees at its main factory complex park their EVs outside. The country’s main international trade association, whose offices are located in central Seoul, said it would accelerate plans to relocate EV charging ports to its aboveground lot. One of the country’s largest telecommunications firms, KT, has held discussions about barring EVs from parking underground.

More

Huge Fire Sparked by a Mercedes-Benz EV Adds to Safety Concerns Dogging Industry (msn.com)

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.  

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and the weekend Iran retaliates against Israel? Israel counter attacks Iran?  More earthquakes in California? Japan? More EV fires? What else could possibly go wrong? Have a great weekend everyone.

There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world.

John Maynard Keynes.

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