Baltic Dry Index. 1708 +17 Brent Crude 77.10
Spot Gold 2502 US 2 Year Yield 4.06 unch.
The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself.
H. L. Mencken.
In the stock casinos, it’s still party time, but is it 1929 all over again?
If Vice President Harris wins in November, her proposal to raise corporate tax back to 28 percent and to bring in wage and price controls are likely to make any new US recession, (which I think already started in April or May,) much deeper than anything seen since 1929.
Below, more fantasy “economics” in the global stock casinos.
Japan’s Nikkei leads gains in Asia Pacific as
investors assess RBA minutes; China holds key rates
Published Mon, Aug 19 2024 7:57 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were mostly up on
Tuesday, tracking Wall
Street rally overnight, while investors also assessed minutes of the
Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting.
The region was led by Japan’s Nikkei 225, which gained over 2%,
powered by utilities and healthcare stocks. The broad-based Topix was up 1.3%.
China’s loan prime rates were held at
3.35% for the one-year LPR and 3.85% for the five-year LPR, in line with expectations from a Reuters poll of
economists.
The one-year LPR acts as the benchmark for
most corporate loans, and the five-year LPR serves as a reference rate for
mortgages.
Minutes from the Reserve Bank of
Australia’s August meeting were released on Tuesday. At the meeting, the bank
kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.35%, but noted that inflation remained
“above target” and was “proving persistent.”
The central bank said in its release that the board
members had considered the case for raising the interest rate, but decided to
leave it unchanged as the flow of data since the previous meeting “had not been
sufficient to warrant a change in the stance of monetary policy. “
However, the RBA warned that it was “unlikely” that rates would be reduced
in the short term, adding that “it was not possible to either rule in or rule
out future changes in the cash rate target.”
South Korea’s Kospi was 0.87% higher, and
the small-cap Kosdaq rose 1%.
The country’s consumer sentiment in August
retreated from a two year high of 103.6, coming in at 100.8, with South Korean
media outlet Yonhap reporting that this was “due to U.S. recession
woes and the subsequent stock market rout.” A figure above 100 indicates that
optimists outnumber pessimists.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed
0.28% after the RBA release.
However, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down
0.42%, while the mainland Chinese CSI300 was 0.42% lower.
Shares of real estate firm Kaisa dropped 1.9% to
10.15 Hong Kong cents after jumping as much as 14% as the company announced a debt restructuring agreement, consisting of an issue of $5
billion in senior notes and $4.8 billion in mandatory convertible bonds.
In the U.S., all three major indexes
advanced, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching their eighth
straight winning day.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added
0.58%, while the S&P 500 rose
0.97%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq
Composite jumped 1.39%.
Asia stock markets: China loan prime rates and RBA minutes in focus (cnbc.com)
European stocks head for mixed open as market
uncertainty lingers
Published Tue, Aug 20 2024
LONDON — European stocks are expected to
open in mixed territory Tuesday, with market uncertainty lingering over the
outlook for interest rate cuts.
The U.K.’s FTSE index is expected to
open 28 points lower at 8,334, Germany’s DAX flat at 18,426,
France’s CAC 40 down
6 points at 7,499 and Italy’s FTSE
MIB up 6 points at 33,368, according to data from IG.
Global markets will be focused on key
Federal Reserve events this week. Minutes from the central bank’s most recent
meeting will be released Wednesday, before Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson
Hole, Wyoming, speech on Friday.
Both events could give investors more
clarity on the outlook for interest rate cuts and what to expect at the Fed’s
next meeting. Fed futures funds pricing indicates a roughly 76% likelihood of
central bank policymakers lowering rates by 25 basis points in September, per
the CME FedWatch Tool.
Asia-Pacific
markets were mostly up on Tuesday, tracking the
Wall Street rally Monday, while investors also assessed minutes of the
Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting. U.S.
stock futures were flat last night after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq
Composite notched their longest winning streaks of 2024.
Data releases in Europe Tuesday include
Germany’s producer price index, the latest monetary policy decision from
Sweden’s central bank and the EU’s final year-on-year inflation rate.
European markets: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Harris proposes raising the corporate tax rate to
28%, rolling back a Trump law
Published Mon, Aug 19 2024 4:23 PM EDT Updated
Mon, Aug 19 2024 5:01 PM EDT
Vice President Kamala Harris is calling
for raising the corporate tax rate to 28%, her first major proposal to raise
revenues and finance expensive plans she wants to pursue as president.
Harris campaign spokesman James Singer
told NBC News that she would push for a 28% corporate tax rate, calling it “a
fiscally responsible way to put money back in the pockets of working people and
ensure billionaires and big corporations pay their fair share.”
“As President, Kamala Harris will focus on
creating an opportunity economy for the middle class that advances their
economic security, stability, and dignity,” Singer wrote in an email.
If enacted, the policy would raise
hundreds of billions of dollars, as the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office
has projected that 1 percentage point increases in the corporate rate
corresponds to about $100 billion over a decade. It would also roll back a big
part of former President Donald Trump’s signature legislation in 2017 as
president, which slashed the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%.
Trump, meanwhile, recently said he would
cut taxes even further if elected president, including on businesses.
The move comes as Harris slowly adds
details to her governing vision on the week of the Democratic convention,
including conveying to critics how she would seek to pay for costly ideas, such
as expanding the child tax credit and easing the cost of housing and medical
debt. She has not provided a cost estimate of her proposals so far or matched
them with pay-fors.
A 28% corporate tax rate is lower than
what Harris proposed in her failed 2020 presidential campaign, when she called
for fully repealing Trump’s tax cuts, which would have returned the corporate
rate to 35%. The new stance aligns Harris with President Joe Biden’s most
recent budget proposal.
More
Harris proposes raising the corporate tax rate to 28%, rolling back a Trump law (cnbc.com)
In other news.
Gold set for fresh highs ahead of Fed rate
decision — analysts see prices at $3,000 by next year
Published Mon, Aug 19 2024 3:53 AM EDT
Gold prices have been hitting new highs
and analysts expect more records, with some forecasting the metal to hit $3,000
per ounce next year, as the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting draws closer.
Spot gold held steady
at last session’s record high of $2,508.14 per ounce, according to data from
FactSet, while U.S. gold futures jumped 0.16%
to set a new record of $2,540.8 per ounce during Monday Asia hours, extending
gains from Friday.
“2024 is the year where gold is supposed
to reach multiple highs,” said Sabrin Chowdhury, head of commodities analysis
at BMI, citing gold’s appeal as a safe haven asset.
“Gold thrives from uncertainty… [and]
uncertainty is at its peak,” she added, referring to 2024 being the year of
elections, Ukraine’s recent incursion
back into Russia and
growing Middle East tensions.
Israel and Iran appear on the verge of a direct
conflict after Iran vowed to retaliate following the assassination of
Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran earlier this month. Israel has
placed its military on high alert, and the U.S.
sent a carrier strike group and guided-missile submarine to the
region to support its ally’s defense.
Another factor driving bullion prices is
increasing chances of a Fed rate cut in September. July’s Fed meeting bolstered
investor confidence that a rate cut next month is “on the table.”
“Once
the Fed starts to cut rates, likely next month, gold could reach $2,700 an
ounce,” said the BMI analyst. Other analysts share a similar bullish sentiment.
Lower interest rates reduce the
opportunity cost of buying gold, making it more attractive, in relation to
interest-bearing assets such as Treasurys, which compete with gold as a
safe-haven offering.
Lower interest rates also pressure the
dollar, making greenback-priced bullion attractive for holders of other
currencies.
Gold investor sentiment looks set for the
upside in the three to six months window, Citi analysts said in note on
Monday.
The bank added that they see a $3,000 per
ounce target by the middle of 2025, and a fourth quarter average price forecast
of $2,550 per ounce.
Traders will also be watching out for the
annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole this week, which could offer
greater clarity on the interest rate outlook, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell set
to speak at the gathering.
Gold set for fresh highs ahead of Fed rate decision (cnbc.com)
Gold Bars Are Worth a Million Dollars for the First Time
By Jack Wittels August 19, 2024 at 6:05 PM GMT+1
Subscription required.
Gold Bars Are Worth a Million Dollars for the First Time - Bloomberg
The 20 countries in the world most heavily in debt
- UK at number 15
18 August 2024
The
United Kingdom has
placed higher than Sierra
Leone, Egypt and Mozambique in a table
of countries with the highest amount of debt as a ratio of gross domestic
product (GDP).
With an estimated GDP of £3 trillion, the
UK is said to have a debt totalling 106 percent of this amount making it the
15th placed country in the debt to ratio table.
Global debt has fallen in the years since
the pandemic as fiscal support measures were withdrawn in its wake as well as
the rebound in economic activity, inflation surprises, and interest rate hikes.
Despite this global trend, the UK's debt
has risen in recent years, with estimates by the Office
for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimating that it will continue to
rise over the next four years.
The UK is not the only leading economy
inside the top 20 with France placing
eleventh, the United States sixth
and Japan coming out
on top with an eye watering 252 percent.
Whilst the word 'debt' is often enough to
send most people into a varying states of anxiety, when talking in terms of large
economies, debt can often be a positive rather than a negative.
More
The 20 countries in the world most heavily in debt - UK at number 15 (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Today,
US consumer eggflation.
Egg
prices are rising once again as bird flu limits supply
Published
Sat, Aug 17 2024 8:44 AM EDT
Egg
prices are climbing, placing the household staple back in the spotlight as
consumers stay concerned not only about inflation but the absolute level of
prices.
July
marked a third straight month that egg prices rose on an annual basis, a
reversal from a year of relative decreases. The culprit was a continued battle
against the highly pathogenic avian influenza, known in short as HPAI or the
bird flu.
Prices
for the vital food ingredient soared 19.1% in July compared with the same month
a year prior, according to consumer price
index, or CPI, data released
this week. By comparison, the entire CPI basket of items rose just 2.9% over the
same period.
Inflation
in egg prices became a focus for
consumers during
the pandemic given their ubiquity in everyday cooking. Increases in eggs and
other groceries have been top of mind for consumers grappling with higher
costs, in turn hurting consumer
sentiment in
recent years.
But
the latest inflationary wave appears more connected to a spike of nearly 8%
from March to April, which can be tied to seasonal patterns in the bird flu.
That was largest month-over-month increase since the spring of 2023.
“The
short answer, we think, is related to avian influenza,” said Caitlinn Hubbell,
market research analyst at Purdue University’s Center for Food Demand Analysis
and Sustainability in West Lafayette, Indiana. “As unfortunate as that is, the
high-path avian influenza has continued to be around.”
The
bird flu had a historic outbreak in 2022 and surged once again at the end of
2023. More recently, Hubbell said resurgences in Colorado
and California have hurt supplies.
Egg
demand is considered “inelastic,” Hubbell said, meaning consumers will usually
buy the same amount regardless of price increases. On the flip side, she noted
that consumers usually won’t stock up when they see lower costs.
Inelastic
items tend to see big price changes from even small changes in supply, she
said. That can underscore the impact of any bird flu outbreaks on the prices
customers see on grocery store shelves.
For
shoppers, this has resulted in higher prices. The average rate for a dozen
large, Grade A eggs topped $3 in July for the first time in more than a year,
according to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
Despite
this reacceleration, prices are still more than 20% below levels seen last
year. Nonetheless, the price of eggs tracked within the CPI basket is up about
42% compared with July 2021.
Looking
ahead, Hubbell said price movements will hinge on the state of the bird flu.
But she’s hopeful consumers can see some relief with upcoming seasons less
likely to bring outbreaks.
“It’s
hard to tell,” Hubbell said. “It all depends on the impact in the size and
scope of HPAI.”
Egg prices are rising once again as bird flu limits supply (cnbc.com)
Study
Shows Renewables Raise Food Prices
Aug
12 2024
As
countries including Australia embrace renewable energy production, a recent
study sheds light on some overlooked impacts of this transition.
While
the benefits of renewable energy are well-established, researchers are also
examining the less discussed economic and social impacts of the move towards
‘green’ energy.
A
recent study shows that the shift to renewable energy sources, such as solar
and wind power, has led to increased food prices and a decrease in agricultural
output.
"Our
findings show that the energy transition is not a neutral process and that it
carries significant consequences," says Professor Emilson Silva,
director of the University of Auckland Energy Centre and co-author of the
study.
"It
directly impacts people's lives."
Professor
Silva and co-author Dr Luccas Attílio from the Federal University of Ouro
Preto, Brazil, analysed data from 32 OECD countries, including Australia, from
2000 to 2021.
Their
findings show that nations more advanced in their renewable energy drive face
more substantial effects, with higher food prices and more pronounced
reductions in agricultural production, compared to those that are slower to
adopt renewable energy sources.
"This
evidence highlights a critical challenge," says Dr
Silva. "As the push for renewable energy intensifies, so does the
pressure on vulnerable populations who bear the brunt of rising food
costs."
Dr
Silva and Dr Attílio say governments need to consider income support programmes
and adopt more nuanced approaches to the energy transition.
"While
going ‘green' is essential for mitigating climate change, it must be balanced
with strategies to protect those negatively impacted," says Dr
Silva.
The
study, detailed in the working paper 'Does the energy transition affect food
prices and agricultural production?', originated from Professor Silva's
observations of farmers’ recent protests in Australia and other countries
against higher production costs associated with climate policies and the growth
of renewable energy production.
“Some
of the farmers had been grappling with rising work-related costs and issues
stemming from their land being repurposed for solar and wind installations. So,
I wanted to look at the data to find out what effect the uptake of renewable
energy sources was actually having.”
Study Shows Renewables Raise Food Prices (azocleantech.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Number of COVID-19 patients expected to reach 350,000 next week
14:22 August 19, 2024
SEOUL,
Aug. 19 (Yonhap) -- The number of COVID-19 patients is expected to reach
350,000 next week, matching a peak seen in last year's summer wave, a senior
health ministry official said Monday.
Hong
Jung-ik, director-general in charge of infectious disease policy at the Korea
Disease Control and Prevention Agency, told a radio interview that health
authorities have no plan to raise an alert level for COVID-19, while supplying
enough treatments and testing kits.
"Although
the current number of patients is about half of what was reported in August
last year, considering the summer season trends over the past two years, the
weekly figure could reach 350,000 by the end of this month, similar to last
year's peak," Hong said.
Health
authorities have expected the current wave of COVID-19 to peak later this
month.
Hong
said that the government has been distributing COVID-19 treatments and noted
that sufficient volume will be available at local pharmacies by the end of this
month.
Last
week, the presidential office said the country will supply treatments for
260,000 COVID-19 patients.
Hong
added that the government will supply more than 5 million testing kits by the
end of this month.
Number of COVID-19 patients expected to reach 350,000 next week | Yonhap News Agency (yna.co.kr)
Pfizer,
BioNtech say combined flu-COVID vaccine misses a main goal of Phase 3 trial
August
16, 2024 11:51 AM GMT+1
Aug
16 (Reuters) - Pfizer (PFE.N), opens new
tab and
BioNTech (22UAy.DE), opens
new tab said
a late-stage trial of their experimental mRNA vaccine to protect against
influenza and COVID-19 found the combination shot failed to meet one of the
study's two main goals and they are evaluating next steps.
The
drugmakers said on Friday the Phase 3 trial showed the vaccine elicited a
robust influenza A immune response, compared to a standard flu vaccine, but
showed weaker results against the influenza B strain.
The
formulation showed similar responses against SARS-CoV-2 as the companies'
COVID-19 vaccine.
"We
remain optimistic about our combination COVID-19 and influenza program, for
which we are evaluating the next steps," Annaliesa Anderson, Pfizer's head
of vaccine research and development, said in a statement.
The
companies said they are discussing the findings with health authorities and
evaluating adjustments to the candidate.
The
trial, which compared the experimental vaccine to a licensed influenza vaccine
and the companies' COVID-19 vaccine given at the same visit, enrolled 8,000
healthy adults.
The
drugmakers said no safety issues with the combination vaccine have been
identified.
Pfizer
also said a Phase 2 trial of its second-generation mRNA flu vaccine candidate
showed that the formulation elicited robust influenza A and B responses, with
no safety issues reported.
It
said data from the 450-patient flu vaccine trial would be made available at a
later date.
Pfizer, BioNtech say combined flu-COVID vaccine misses a main goal of Phase 3 trial | Reuters
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
Saudi: ACWA
Power’s Al Rass solar power plant begins production
August
18, 2024 08:00 PM GST
Saudi
Arabia’s ACWA Power Company announced on Sunday the Al Rass 1 solar
photovoltaic project is now online and has started power generation in the
kingdom’s Qassim province.
In a
filing to the Saudi bourse Tadawul, ACWA Power said it received a notice from
the Al Rass Renewable Energy Company on 15 August stating that upon
obtaining the commercial operation certificate from the offtaker for the full
700 megawatt plant, the project is now online and has started power generation.
ACWA
Power owns a 40.1% share in the Al Rass plant’s operating company and said it
expects the project’s financial impact to be reflected from the second half of
2024 onwards.
The
Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC) is the sole offtaker on this project and
has signed a 25-year power purchase agreement with ACWA Power for an investment
value of $450 million, which includes the plant’s development, construction and
operations, to provide power for the national grid.
According
to project information, the energy is being generated using bi-facial modules
with tracking technology. The plant is capable of powering 132,000 homes, while
offsetting nearly 1.5 million tons of emissions per year.
ACWA Power's Al
Rass solar power plant begins production - Construction Week Online
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
There
are many men of principle in both parties in America, but there is no party of
principle.
Alexis
de Tocqueville.
No comments:
Post a Comment