Baltic
Dry Index. 1762 Fri. Brent Crude 81.30
Spot Gold 2509 US 2 Year Yield 3.91 +0.01
No one should ever sit in this office over 70 years old, and that I know.
Dwight D. Eisenhower.
Not to much need for my input today. Events in the Middle East will largely determine what happens next in stocks, oil, and the global economy.
From far away London it looks like no one in the Middle East really wants peace, with both Israel and the Palestinians really wanting war.
The next move seems to be Iran’s.
Meanwhile the Great Disconnect between the stock casinos and global reality continues to widen.
Most
Asia markets track declines in key Wall Street indexes; investors assess China
industrial profits
Published Mon, Aug 26 2024 7:53 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets largely fell on Tuesday, tracking losses in the S&P 500 and the
Nasdaq overnight, while investors assessed industrial profit data out of China.
China’s industrial profits from January to July climbed 3.6% year
on year, compared to a 3.5% growth between January and June.
Hong
Kong Hang Seng index slipped
0.27%, while the mainland China’s CSI 300 dropped 0.61% after the
release.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.21%, while
the broad-based Topix was up 0.40%, the only two major indexes in positive
territory.
South
Korea’s Kospi fell
0.37%, while the small cap Kosdaq saw a loss of 0.67%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 reversed
gains to decline 0.21%. Earlier in the trading day, the index was close to
breaching its all-time closing high of 8,114.7, set on Aug. 1.
Late
Monday, oil prices continued to rise after Israel and Hezbollah traded strikes
over the weekend, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbing 3.5% to
close at $77.42 per barrel and Brent crude up 3.05% at $81.43 a barrel, its
highest in about two weeks.
Oil
prices later pared some gains on Tuesday, with WTI futures trading at $77.02 a
barrel and Brent at $81.07 a barrel.
Overnight
in the U.S., the Dow Jones
Industrial Average on Wall Street reached new highs, closing up 65.44
points, or 0.16%, at 41,240.52. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 0.32%
and 0.85%, respectively.
Asia stock markets: China industrial profit, Dow record high (cnbc.com)
Stock
futures edge lower after Dow’s record close: Live updates
Updated
Tue, Aug 27 2024 7:21 PM EDT
Stock
futures ticked down Monday after a slide in technology stocks pressured the
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed
at a record high.
Futures
tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average slipped 62 points or 0.15%. S&P 500 futures fell
0.2% while Nasdaq 100 futures pulled
back 0.28%.
On
Monday, the Dow broke with the broader market and reached a new intraday high
before pulling back. Still, the 30-stock index held on to enough of its gains
to cement a fresh record close. Meanwhile, a slide in tech stocks on Monday and
a gain in less favored segments like energy signaled that investors might be
rotating out of one of the market’s key drivers over the past year.
Investors
are eager to see earnings from top artificial intelligence beneficiary Nvidia on Wednesday. Shares
of the semiconductor firm closed more than 2% lower Monday and were marginally
higher in after hours trading. Nvidia has become a
key bellwether for tech stocks and AI more broadly, and investors will look
toward its second-quarter results to gauge the health of the AI trade.
Stocks
are trying to find stable footing after a brutal start to the month. Investors
have grown more optimistic, however, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
signaled on Friday that the central bank’s next move will be to cut benchmark
interest rates. Powell did not specify when, or by how much, interest rates
would be reduced.
Traders
are unanimously forecasting a rate cut at the central bank’s Sept.17-18 policy
meeting of at least 25 basis points, according to data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
“It’s
going to take time for the cuts to go all over the economy ... the market is
doing some of the heavy lifting for the Fed, but there’s a lot of question
marks,” Allianz chief economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime”
on Monday.
Investors
will also parse fresh quarterly earnings from retailer Nordstrom after the closing
bell Tuesday for insight into the health of consumers.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Oil
prices pause after surging on Libyan outages, Middle East tensions
By Colleen
Howe August 27, 2024 2:59 AM
GMT+1
BEIJING,
Aug 27 (Reuters) - Oil prices paused their recent advances, receding in Asian
trading on Tuesday after surging more than 7% in the previous three sessions on
supply concerns prompted by fears of a wider Middle East conflict and the
shutdown of Libyan oil fields.
Brent
crude futures fell 32 cents, or 0.39%, to $81.11 a barrel at 0154 GMT, while
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 36 cents, or 0.46%, to $77.06 a
barrel.
Oil
markets are retracing slightly after sharp gains in the previous three sessions
driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts that could boost fuel demand,
military assaults between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon over the weekend that
threaten a wider Middle
East conflict potentially disrupting supply from the key producing
region and the Libyan closures.
Over
that period, WTI gained 7.6% and Brent gained 7%.
"Markets
remain on edge as skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah intensify," ANZ
analysts said in a note. "The risk of disruption to actual barrels of oil
became real after Libya's eastern government said it will halt all oil
production and exports as a political tussle deepened."
That
political dispute could affect up to 1.17 million barrels per day of output
from the North African country, based on data from the latest Reuters survey of
production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in July.
Oil
has also been supported by the escalation of the conflict between Israel and
Hezbollah, with a major exchange of missiles between
them as Hezbollah attempts to retaliate for the killing of a senior commander
last month.
A
top U.S. general said on Monday the danger of a broader had eased somewhat but
that a potential Iran strike on Israel remains a risk.
Oil prices pause after surging on Libyan outages, Middle East tensions | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
35%
Recession Probability In 2024: Why J.P. Morgan Sees Growing Risks Despite
Cooling Inflation
Sun,
25 Aug 2024, 4:00 pm BST
As
of Aug. 15, J.P. Morgan Research indicates that the probability of a U.S.
and global recession in
2024 has hit 35%, up from their 25% midyear estimate. While inflation seems to
be slowing down, signs of weakening economic growth and a softer-than-expected
labor market are key drivers behind this increased probability. Here's a closer
look at the factors driving these concerns and what they might mean for
interest rates and the broader economy.
The July
jobs report was
a key indicator of the changing economic landscape. The report revealed an
increase in the unemployment rate for the fourth month in a row, suggesting
that the labor market, which remained resilient for most of the past year, is
beginning to soften. This weakening in labor demand has prompted J.P. Morgan to
reassess its growth forecast, now seeing greater recession risks.
Bruce
Kasman, Chief Global Economist at J.P. Morgan, highlighted the factors
contributing to this updated outlook. "U.S. news hints at a
sharper-than-expected weakening in labor demand and early signs of labor
shedding," Kasman stated. Additionally, global manufacturing and the euro
area have shown a loss of momentum, areas that were previously expected to
drive growth.
However,
Kasman pointed out that key recession vulnerabilities – such as sustained
profit margin compression, credit market stress, and energy or financial market
shocks – are still absent. These factors have led J.P. Morgan to only slightly increase
their recession probability assessment, moving it to 35%.
More
Famous
economist who predicted 2008 recession issues VERY grim warning over future of
the US economy
Published: 18:48, 25
August 2024 | Updated: 19:06, 25 August 2024
A
legendary economist says the declining job market is the ultimate indicator
that the US economy is headed
toward a recession.
David
Rosenberg, who predicted the 2008 downturn while he was Merrill Lynch's chief
economist, recently told clients the revelation that the
US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs over the last year than originally
reported was
the largest downward revision since the Great Recession.
The
Bureau of Labor Statistics said the jobs growth data from March 2023 to March
2024 was actually 30 percent less than its initial figure of 2.9 million, a
devastating blow Rosenberg says may spell doom in the near future.
Rosenberg,
the founder of financial insights firm Rosenberg Research, also aimed his ire
at the Federal
Reserve for
stubbornly refusing to ease interest rates since July 2023.
Fed
policy 'has been too tight, and for too long, to avoid causing an economic
slowdown,' he wrote last week in a client-circulated note obtained by Business
Insider.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19
Update: New Vaccines Ready and Free Tests Are Coming Back
Sat,
August 24, 2024 at 6:52 PM GMT+1
As
the summer wave of COVID-19 cases
continues to rise, households in the US will be able to order free virus test
kits mailed to their homes, starting in late September.
According
to COVIDtests.gov, managed by the
U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, households will be able to
order up to four COVID-19 nasal swab tests when the federal program reopens at
the end of September. A specific date, however, is not yet announced. Per the
website, “the COVID-19 Tests will detect current COVID-19 variants and can be
used through the end of the year.”
“Tests
will detect current virus strains and can be ordered ahead of the holiday
season when family and friends gather for celebrations,” an HHS spokesperson
said in an emailed statement
to the Associated Press.
The
announcement comes in tandem with the FDA approval of updated COVID-19 vaccines
from Pfizer and Moderna, ahead of the fall and winter respiratory virus season.
As of this week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that
the number of people testing
positive for COVID-19 keeps rising, along with emergency room visits since
mid-May. Hospitalizations are rising, too.
The
CDC also reports that
COVID-19 has become endemic, which means that, while still posing significant
health risks, we’ll be getting yearly updated vaccines to protect against
mutations and waning immunity, just like annual flu shots.
According
to data from the CDC, as of May 11, only 22.5% of adults got last year’s
updated Covid vaccine. Only 14.4% of children ages 6 months through 17 years
got vaccinated.
For
this fall, the CDC recommended that all Americans aged 6 months and older get
the new shots. CVS is currently
offering appointments for
the new COVID-19 vaccine starting no earlier than late August, and Walgreens is
offering appointments that
begin September 6. Those uninsured will likely have to pay out of pocket for
the vaccine as the US Department of Health and Human Services’ Bridge Access
Program comes
to an end in August.
Uninsured
minors aged 18 and under can still get free COVID-19 vaccines — and other free
immunizations — as part of the Vaccines for
Children Program.
COVID-19 Update: New Vaccines Ready and Free Tests Are Coming Back (yahoo.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Solar Power
Alone Won't Save Us
August
25, 2024
Solar
power continues to break record after record. If solar continues its current
5-year compound growth rate of 23%, then
by the end of 2046, it could be supplying all
our global energy demand at 2023 levels. By 2050,
we could more than double our energy consumption globally and solar will still
be generating more than we need.
This
year, around 1
billion solar panels, and 70 billion of their constituent
solar cells, will be manufactured around the world, mostly in China. It is the
repetitive modular manufacturing process that has lent itself to the rapid
efficiency improvements and cost reductions—90%
in the last decade—underpinning solar’s near-exponential
growth. In 2009, the International Energy Agency predicted total installed
solar power capacity would hit 244 GW in 2030. That target was met 14 years
early, in 2016, and the total today is 1,600
GW—over six times the 2030 forecast.
The
modular nature of solar panels make for efficient manufacturing. But it is also
ideal for small scale deployment, including on our homes. Globally, more
than 25
million homes now have decentralized solar on their roofs. By 2030, this
is likely to exceed 100 million, according to the IEA, though its forecasts
have undersold solar before. So, could we up this forecast to 200 million, 500
million, or even 1 billion solar powered households by the end of decade?
Here
come the caveats. While the growth rate of deploying solar has been phenomenal,
we must remember the first commercial solar farm was completed in California
over 40 years ago, in 1982. In any near-exponential growth, the start of the
graph always shows a long period of slow and insignificant deployment, before
the growth rate bends the curve toward the vertical. In the case of solar, this
period existed from the early 1980s to around 2005. It can be argued that solar
didn’t reach truly disruptive deployment levels until 2015, when it first
supplied more
than 1% of global electricity, more than 30 years from the
first solar farm in California.
You
also can’t drive a solar cell to work, or fly on a magic carpet of solar
panels. Other enabling technologies are needed to make solar energy useful.
There are promising ones. These include electrolysers, heat pumps, and
lithium-ion batteries. They can join the already-proven modular success stories
of solar and wind.
The
beauty of modular electrolysers is that they produce green hydrogen from
electricity and water, meaning that we can utilize the electricity produced
when there is too much wind or sun, and demand is low. This hydrogen from
excess renewable electricity can then be used to generate electricity again
when it’s cloudy and calm. It can also be stored seasonally, and utilized in
industrial and agricultural
processes, in future
aircraft, and for powering
cargo ships. Hydrogen elegantly compliments wind and solar, and electrolysers
are continuing to fall
in cost as more and more are produced.
More
Solar Power Alone
Won't Save Us (msn.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The only way to win World War III is to prevent it.
Dwight
D. Eisenhower.
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