Baltic
Dry Index. 1691 -01 Brent
Crude 79.68
Spot
Gold 2508 U S 2 Year Yield 4.06 -0.02
We're essentially continuing a system where profits are
privatized and...losses socialized.
Nouriel Roubini.
It
was a good week in the global stock casinos, (and gold,) busy frontrunning an expected
US central bank interest rate cut next month.
In
the real US and wider global economy where most people make their living, not such a good week, aside from a better week
in the UK economy.
Despite
the Wall Street media spin, the great disconnect between the stock casinos and
reality, continues to widen.
Stocks
close higher Friday as market comeback lifts S&P 500 to best week of 2024:
Live updates
Updated
Fri, Aug 16 2024 4:47 PM EDT
U.S.
stocks rose on Friday as investors closed out the best week of 2024, part of a
market comeback from a violent rout to begin August.
The S&P 500 added 0.2% to
5,554.25, while the Nasdaq
Composite gained 0.21% to 17,631.72 on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
96 points, or 0.24%, to 40,659.76. For the week, the S&P 500 added nearly
3.9%, its best week since November 2023. The Nasdaq gained 5.2%, while the
30-stock Dow advanced 2.9% on the week.
Following
the comeback this week, the S&P 500 is now just 2% away from its mid-July
record high. Data this week helped assuage a jittery market. Retail sales data
released Thursday came in much
stronger than economists expected, while weekly jobless claims fell.
Both offered evidence that recession fears, which helped spark a global
sell-off earlier this month, were overblown. Inflation
readings released earlier this week also bolstered hopes that a soft
landing scenario was still possible.
“Data
released over the past week has struck the right balance, being not too hot,
nor too cold,” UBS head of investment for global wealth management Mark Haefele
wrote Friday. “This should help allay both concerns of a looming recession or
that sticky inflation will hamper the Federal Reserve if swift rate cuts are
needed to defend growth.”
Shares
of Nvidia are among
the biggest winners in technology stocks on the week with a gain of more than
18%. Apple and Microsoft advanced roughly 4%
and 3%, respectively, for the week.
The
Dow dropped 1,000 points and the S&P 500 had its worst day since 2022 on
Aug. 5 as investors feared the Federal Reserve was too late to cut interest
rates and the economy was slipping into a recession. A hedge fund currency
trade unwind added to the market volatility.
But
investors stepped in to buy since then, with the S&P 500 gaining for seven
days in a row as economic reports quelled recession concerns. The Nasdaq posted
its best week since November 2023. On Friday, consumer sentiment rose more than
expected, according to the latest University of Michigan survey
Stocks
rise as market comeback lifts S&P 500 to best week of 2024 (cnbc.com)
Europe
stocks close higher to round off winning week; Sterling gains after slew of UK
data
Published
Fri, Aug 16 2024 2:17 AM EDT Updated Fri, Aug 16 2024 12:02 PM EDT
LONDON
— European markets closed higher Friday, rounding off what’s set to be a
winning week for global stocks.
The
pan-European Stoxx 600 index
closed up 0.31%, to record a weekly gain of 2.4%. Autos stocks recorded the
biggest sectoral gain, adding 1.06%, while oil and gas stocks lost 0.15%.
U.S.
stocks have also posted solid gains, with a big boost coming Thursday
when weekly jobless claims fell and U.S. retail sales data was much
stronger than forecasts had suggested.
That
further signaled to investors that the jitters over a U.S. recession, which contributed to
the sharp
global sell-off at the start of the month, are overblown. Along
with ripple
effects from Japanese monetary policy, analysts say part of the volatility
may be explained by a historical
August trend, when trade tends to be more shallow.
---- On the data front on Friday, U.K. retail
sales showed a rebound from a 0.9% decline in June to 0.5% growth in July, in
line with expectations in a Reuters poll. Sales volumes were up 1.1% in the
three months to July.
Alex
Kerr, U.K. economist at Capital Economics, said in a note Friday that the
retail uptick was not broad-based, with sectors such as food, clothing and
household goods struggling.
“We
continue to think that rising real incomes, as inflation falls, should mean
consumer spending growth accelerates over the rest of this year,” Kerr said.
It
comes after U.K.
inflation showed an uptick to 2.2% in July, a lower increase than
expected, while the economy
recorded 0.6% expansion in the second quarter.
The
British pound was up 0.4% against the U.S. dollar at $1.2902 on Friday morning,
its highest rate for more than three weeks. Sterling was also 0.2% higher
against the euro.
Asia-Pacific stocks also
followed the positive momentum from U.S. data to trade higher Friday.
Europe
stocks open to close: UK retail sales, US economy boost (cnbc.com)
In
other news.
Replacing
China in copper supply chain is ‘unfeasible,’ warns WoodMac, as the West seeks
shift
Published
Fri, Aug 16 2024 1:26 AM EDT
Western
countries seeking to diversify away from China’s
dominance in copper could delay the energy transition besides raising
costs, while its complete replacement would be ‘unfeasible,’ according to Wood
Mackenzie.
China
leads the world in key segments of the copper supply chain, with the critical
metal serving as an important component in emerging technologies such as
renewable energy, energy storage and electric vehicles.
As
the U.S., Canada, Australia, and European countries seek to displace the
country’s hold on copper through subsidies and investment, Wood Mackenzie warns
that the dual aims of decarbonization and reduced dependence on Beijing are at
odds with one another.
“Hundreds
of billions of dollars in new copper processing and fabrication capacity would
be required to replace China,” the natural resources’ data analytics firm said a report released on Thursday, adding that demand for the metal could grow by
75% to 56 million tons by 2050.
“This
would create inefficiencies that would result in significantly higher-priced
finished goods and increase the cost and timeliness of the energy transition,”
it added.
Existing
mines and projects under construction will meet
only 80% of copper needs by 2030, according to the International
Energy Agency, indicating a potential shortage of the metal.
According
to Wood Mackenzie, most of the world’s initial mining of raw materials occurs
primarily in the Americas and Africa, with China’s domestic mining output
constituting just 8% of global production.
Though
that share rises closer to 20% after accounting for China’s overseas mining
assets, the country will still need to secure
additional supplies to meet its needs. The rest of the world has
enough primary mine supply to meet current requirements, the report said.
The
copper supply chain, however, comprises several key phases, including mining, smelting and
refining, fabricating, and the manufacturing of finished goods.
And
what the rest of the world has in copper mines, it lacks in China’s dominance
in downstream processing and manufacturing, according to the report.
“As
governments and manufacturers aim to diversify away from China, it is crucial
to consider the entire supply chain, not just mining operations,” said Nick
Pickens, research director of global mining at Wood Mackenzie.
“While
copper supply risks can be mitigated and some rebalancing has begun in various
countries, the scale of China’s dominance in the supply chain means complete
replacement is unfeasible.”
More
Replacing
China in copper supply chain is 'unfeasible,' warns WoodMac (cnbc.com)
Finally,
the greatly discredited Wall Street Journal joke/propaganda lie of the
week/month/year. Now getting repeated, as expected, across much of western media.
A
Drunken Evening, a Rented Yacht: The Real Story of the Nord Stream Pipeline
Sabotage
August
14, 2024
It
was the kind of outlandish scheme that might bubble up in a bar around closing
time.
In
May of 2022, a handful of senior Ukrainian military officers and businessmen
had gathered to toast their country’s remarkable success in halting the Russian
invasion. Buoyed by alcohol and patriotic fervor, somebody suggested a radical
next step: destroying Nord Stream.
After
all, the twin natural-gas pipelines that carried Russian gas to Europe were
providing billions to the Kremlin war machine. What better way to make Vladimir
Putin pay for his aggression?
Just
over four months later, in the small hours of Sept. 26, Scandinavian
seismologists picked up signals indicating an underwater earthquake or volcanic
eruption hundreds of miles away, near the Danish island of Bornholm. They were
caused by three powerful explosions and the largest-ever recorded release of
natural gas, equivalent to the annual CO2 emissions of Denmark.
One
of the most audacious acts of sabotage in modern history, the operation
worsened an energy crisis in Europe—an assault on critical infrastructure that
could be considered an act of war under international law. Theories swirled
about who was responsible. Was it the CIA? Could Putin himself have set the
plan in motion?
Now,
for the first time, the outlines of the real story can be told. The Ukrainian
operation cost around $300,000, according to people who participated in it. It
involved a small rented yacht with a six-member crew, including trained
civilian divers. One was a woman, whose presence helped create the illusion
they were a group of friends on a pleasure cruise.
More.
Outrageously more.
A
Drunken Evening, a Rented Yacht: The Real Story of the Nord Stream Pipeline
Sabotage (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
The
global financial crisis - missed by most analysts - shows that most forecasters
are poor at pricing in economic/financial risks, let alone geopolitical ones.
Nouriel Roubini.
US recession fears grip the markets: But is
the world's biggest economy really heading for a slump?
August 14, 2024
When America
sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold – it’s the oft-quoted adage that
reflects both the dominant role the US economy plays across the world, and the
importance of its share and bond markets to the wealth of investors everywhere.
Well, in the
past few days it may not yet have sneezed, but there are certainly sniffles.
On Wall Street
and in the City, many are worried that the US economy may fall into recession
in the coming months.
The financial
markets are running scared, with the most volatile movements in recent days
since the pandemic struck in March 2020.
The share prices
of the high-tech giants – including Apple, the world’s most valuable company –
have been hammered.
The market
capitalisation of Microsoft, the second-most valuable, dipped below $3tn
(£2.3tn) last week.
Here in
Washington, the Federal Reserve – the mighty US central bank led by Jay Powell
– is under pressure to cut interest rates by half a percentage point, rather
than the expected quarter, at its meeting next month. Fear is in the air.
----So what do
we know? The basic point is that the economy has been booming, but now seems to
be slowing. The issue therefore is whether it grinds to a halt and goes into
recession.
That would mean
it would shrink for at least two consecutive quarters – or six months.
Alternatively, it may simply grow slowly for a while before picking up pace
again, achieving what is dubbed a soft landing.
As always, the
experts disagree. Still in the soft-landing camp is Goldman Sachs, though it
raised its expectations of recession from 10 per cent to 25 per cent a few days
ago.
The wealth
management arm of JP Morgan agrees, acknowledging that risks have risen but
concluding ‘a soft landing remains our base case’.
They are two of
the biggest guns in the American investment world, so their views are very much
worth hearing.
Among the
pessimists is David Rosenberg, who runs his own advisory company. He hit the
headlines back in February when he predicted that unemployment would climb
sharply to reach 5 per cent, and said there was an 85 per cent chance of
recession this year.
The number he
suggested has not yet been reached, but it was a rise in unemployment from
4.1 per cent to 4.3 per cent that triggered the big sell-off at the
start of this month.
Support comes
from the so-called Sahm Rule, which looks at the rate of rise in unemployment
to signal the start of a recession.
It was created
by Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist. It says that when the
three-month average of unemployment is 0.5 of a percentage point higher than
the lowest point of the previous 12 months, then the economy is already in
recession.
Apply it to past
cycles and it has worked for every one since 1970. Those who recall economist
Paul Samuelson’s famous remark that ‘the stock market has predicted nine out of
the last five recessions’ should note that the Sahm rule did not forecast any slumps
that failed to happen.
Sahm herself
modestly acknowledges that since that increase has more to do with the rising
supply of labour than a fall in demand for it, this time may be different. But
it’s a huge concern.
More
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
Covid-19 vaccines accounted for 5% of all adverse
reactions to medicines last year
15/08/2024 | 15:28 PM
Covid-19 vaccines accounted for just five per cent
of all adverse reactions to medicines reported in Ireland last year.
New figures published by the Health Products
Regulatory Authority show that 400 incidents of people suffering adverse
reactions to Covid-19 vaccines were recorded during 2023.
The HPRA said it was a decrease on the heightened
number of reports received the previous year when 2,852 such incidents were
recorded, accounting for 26% of all reports of side effects to medicines.
Overall, a total of 7,793 adverse reactions
incidents across all medicines were reported to the HPRA last year – the second
lowest annual total in the past five years and an annual decrease of 29 per
cent.
By comparison, almost 18,000 suspected adverse
reactions to Covid-19 vaccines were recorded in 2021 which represented
approximately 70 per cent of all such incidents that year.
The surge in reports of reactions to various
Covid-19 vaccines in 2021 resulted in a trebling of the overall level of
adverse reactions compared to 2020.
The HPRA said submission of reports of suspected
side effects enables regulators to monitor the safety of vaccines and to take
the most appropriate action required should new safety-related information
become available.
The latest figures show approximately half of all
adverse reaction reports last year related to what are classified as
antineoplastic medicines which are used in the treatment of cancer.
They include immune-modulating medicines,
monoclonal antibodies and endocrine medications.
Overall, there were 3,954 adverse reaction reports
in relation to antineoplastic medicines in 2023.
The second largest category for such reports was
vaccines, accounting for 607 of the total, of which 400 related to Covid-19
vaccines.
The other main classification of medicines for
which several hundred incidents of adverse reactions were recorded included
psycholeptic medicines used for calming patients (527 cases) ; medicines for
the treatment of Parkinson’s Disease (497); anti-infective medicines including
antibacterials and antivirals (457) and medicines for obstructive airway
diseases (268).
The HPRA revealed that 140 patients were reported
to have died following treatment with a suspect medicine of which 16 related to
vaccines.
More
Covid-19 vaccines accounted for 5% of all adverse reactions to medicines
last year (breakingnews.ie)
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Innovative Technique Transforms Microplastics Into Graphene
15 August 2024
Researchers at James
Cook University have made a crucial discovery that
enables them to transform microplastics into graphene, a highly valuable
material. The study was published in the journal Small Science.
According to Mohan Jacob, a Professor at
JCU, some plastic waste degrades into smaller fragments,
frequently reaching micron sizes.
These microplastics are notorious for
their non-degradable and insoluble nature in water and are an evolving threat
to fish and animals and humans.
Mohan Jacob, Professor, James Cook
University
According to Dr. Adeel Zafar of JCU, the
properties of microplastics allow them to absorb organic pollutants.
Once they are in water, they are
ultimately integrated into both marine and human food chains. Disturbingly,
microplastics disrupt marine life and coral reproduction.
Dr. Adeel Zafar, James Cook University
Related Stories
According to Zafar, labor-intensive
separation processes and high costs present significant challenges to the
recycling of microplastics, resulting in a very low global resource recovery
rate.
“Upcycling, which involves
transforming plastic waste into higher-value materials rather than simply
breaking it down, has a high demand,” said Dr. Zafar.
The researchers ground up plastic
bottles into microplastics. They then used the recently developed Atmospheric
Pressure Microwave Plasma synthesis technique to turn the debris into graphene,
a one-atom-thick carbon material that is 200 times stronger than steel, five
times lighter than aluminum, and harder than diamond. Graphene is finding
widespread application in a variety of industries.
Approximately 30 mg of microplastics
produced nearly 5 mg of graphene in 1 minute. This production rate is
remarkably higher than achieved previously and offers a simpler, more
environmentally friendly alternative to current techniques.
Dr. Adeel Zafar, James Cook University
Zafar said that this study represents a
significant turning point in the field. The generated graphene has a number of
uses, such as the production of different sensors and the purification of
water, which involves the absorption of PFAS.
“The research not only pioneers a
novel approach to graphene synthesis but also contributes to the broader goal
of mitigating the adverse effects of microplastic pollution on our ecosystems,”
said Professor Jacob.
Innovative Technique Transforms Microplastics Into Graphene (msn.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. A forgotten French Master. Approx. 12 minutes.
Jacques
Aubert: Concerto in D major for Violin, Strings & B.c Op.26 No.3
Jacques Aubert: Concerto in D major for Violin, Strings & B.c Op.26 No.3 (youtube.com)
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 14 minutes.
Levy's
13 Minutes
This
weekend’s final diversion. The Statue of Liberty. Approx. 12 minutes.
What's
inside the Statue of Liberty?
What's inside the
Statue of Liberty? (youtube.com)
Many
decades ago, I climbed the Statue of Liberty up to the head. Before climbing up,
at the bottom of the spiral stairs, written in chalk on a small blackboard, was
“warning temp. above 101F.” it was mid-summer, but well worth it to a much
younger, more intrepid, foolish Graeme.
The gains from technology must be channelled to a broader base
of the population than has benefited so far.
Nouriel Roubini.
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