Baltic Dry Index. 1655 -15 Brent Crude 81.80
Spot Gold 2462 US 2 Year Yield 4.01 -0.04
The essential notion of a capitalist society ... is voluntary cooperation, voluntary exchange. The essential notion of a socialist society is force.
Milton Friedman.
President Biden’s Pentagon team seems to think Iran will retaliate against Israel this week and are preparing for a wider Middle East war.
The oil market and gold market seem to think so too.
Presumably, team Biden have sound intelligence behind their judgement.
But as we approach the anniversary of the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money this week, August 15, 1971, what will a wider Middle East war do to the global economy and inflation? The “value” of fiat money?
Just how close are we to starting WW3?
Does anyone anywhere think that either Biden, Trump or Harris are leaders like Churchill or Roosevelt who led in WW2?
Not to worry though, the Fed has Wall Street’s back covered, right. Besides, Iran might wait until next week to hit back against Tel Aviv.
Below, June, July, August 1939 in 2024?
Japan stocks lead gains in mixed Asia-Pacific
markets with Nikkei up more than 2%
Published Mon, Aug 12 20247:48 PM EDT
Japan’s major indexes gained more than 2%
on Tuesday as markets resumed trading after a holiday.
The benchmark Nikkei 225 jumped 2.50% higher
and breached 36,000 for the first time since Aug. 2. The broader Topix gained
1.9%.
The momentum was largely driven by the
country’s technology and financial sectors, with Rakuten Group and Trend Micro leaping 8.7%
and 7.6%, respectively.
The country’s parliament plans to hold a
special session next week to discuss the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise
interest rates last month, Reuters reported, citing government
sources.
Japan’s producer price index rose 3% in July from a year earlier, climbing at a faster
pace compared to 2.9% in June.
South Korea’s Kospi dipped 0.17%, while
the small-cap Kosdaq lost 1.58%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed
0.10%. Wages in Australia rose 0.8% in the quarter ended June, the slowest pace
since the same quarter a year earlier, compared with estimates of a 0.9% rise.
Wages rose 4.1% on an annual basis.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 0.10%,
while mainland China’s CSI 300 slid 0.21%.
In Southeast Asia, Singapore reported its
economy grew 2.9% in the second quarter from a year ago, in
line with the advance gross domestic product estimate released in July. The
Ministry of Trade and Industry cited strength in the wholesale trade, finance
and insurance as well as the information and communication sectors. The city-state
also said it sees 2024 GDP growth of 2% to 3%, versus its previous forecast of
1% to 3%.
U.S. markets grappled with a choppy
session overnight as investors braced for key inflation data.
The S&P 500 concluded the day
flat at 5,344.39, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed
0.21% to close at 16,780.61, led by shares of Nvidia soaring 4%. On the
flipside, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average fell 140 points or 0.36% to conclude at 39,357.01.
Traders await Wednesday’s consumer price
index for July, a key indicator of the health of the U.S. economy. Investors
will analyze the data for indications the Federal Reserve can begin cutting
rates in September.
Asia markets: U.S. inflation, Japan CGPI; Singapore GDP (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are little changed as investors
await key inflation data: Live updates
Updated Mon, Aug 12 2024 7:02 PM EDT
U.S. stock futures were little changed
Monday night as investors await this week’s key inflation data.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose
19 points, or 0.05%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.02%
and 0.01%, respectively.
The regular session was a choppy
one for the major averages, which struggled to build on the comeback
rally at the end of last week. The S&P 500 ended flat, eking
out a gain of just 0.23 points. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.21%.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average fell 0.36%.
Investors are now turning their attention
to a pair of inflation reports that are due out over the next two days, on
consumer and producer prices. The data could give an uncertain market some
direction after last week’s wild moves following a disappointing jobs report,
as well as the unwind of the yen carry trade, rattled investors.
The major averages staged a huge
comeback late last week, following a violent rout on Monday when the
S&P 500 posted its worst
day since 2022.
“Market’s got a little oversold last week,
but on things like percentage of names above their 50-day moving average, we
got not oversold at all, which just suggests we really didn’t see a true
flush,” Cameron Dawson, investment chief at NewEdge Wealth, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Monday.
The producer price index — a measure of
wholesale prices that’s due out Tuesday — is expected to show a monthly gain of
0.2% in July, in line with the previous month’s reading, according to Dow Jones
consensus estimates.
The consumer price index that’s expected
out Wednesday is anticipated to show an increase of 0.2% last month, up from a
0.1% decline in the prior month.
Later this week, retail sales data could
garner some attention after the latest jobs report revived fears of slowing
growth, and put the consumer under the microscope.
Elsewhere, corporate earnings season
continues with results from major retail bellwethers. Home Depot’s is due out Tuesday.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news, more war?. The UK’s mini economic boom.
U.S. sends more forces and military
hardware to the Middle East in anticipation of Iranian attack on Israel
Published Mon, Aug 12 2024 4:45 AM EDT
The U.S. is sending more troops and
military hardware to the Middle East as it seeks to increase the resources
available to “defend Israel,” the Pentagon said in a statement.
U.S.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “reiterated the United States’
commitment to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the
strengthening of U.S. military force posture and capabilities throughout the
Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions,” the statement, issued
Sunday by Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, said.
This includes sending a guided-missile
submarine to the region, as well as accelerating the transit of a carrier
strike group equipped with F-35C fighter jets.
The statement follows a call between
Austin and Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, on Sunday. It comes against
the backdrop of Iran’s leadership vowing
retaliation against Israel after the killing
of Hamas’ former political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.
Iran, which supports Hamas, says Israel
carried out the assassination. Israel has not commented on the matter.
Tehran has not yet responded militarily to
the act, leaving its adversaries and the wider region on tenterhooks.
The Biden administration has come under
fire for its support of Israel, with critics saying that the U.S. should be
using its leverage to enforce a cease-fire and should halt its supply of arms
to the Jewish state. Biden has himself criticized the Israeli offensive as
“over the top” and repeatedly said that “too many” civilians have been killed.
More than 100,000 voters in the Michigan Democratic
primary in February, for instance, cast “uncommitted” ballots, sending a
message that this issue will remain consequential to voter support for the
Democrats in the November presidential election.
At the same time, many Democratic voters
strongly support Israel, leaving the party’s nominee, Kamala Harris, in a
challenging position.
Tensions higher after Hamas leader’s
killing
An all-out war between Israel and Iran —
and Iran’s proxies, such as Lebanese militant group Hezbollah — would be devastating
to all sides involved. Each country’s leaders continuously face
pressure to respond militarily.
Tit-for-tat exchanges
of missile strikes between Iran and Israel in April involved attacks
that were essentially measured and telegraphed to avoid significant
damage or casualties. Tehran has so far expressed scant interest in going to
war with Israel, but some analysts warn that a forthcoming retaliation may be
more severe.
More
U.S. sends more forces to the Middle East to 'defend Israel' (cnbc.com)
UK business output jumps to highest level in two
years as further rate cuts expected
12 August, 2024
UK business output has jumped to its
highest level in two years, according to a closely-watched survey, as the
expectation of more interest rate cuts provide optimism for the coming months.
Research by advisory
group BDO found
that output reached its highest level since July 2022 last month, driven by
manufacturing and services.
Its output index rose 2.67 points to
100.77 in July, suggesting growth above historic trends. Above 95 signals
growth.
Manufacturing rebounded to 100.03 in July,
from a sub-95 reading in June. Services also surpassed the 100 threshold for
the first time since August 2022 at 100.87, driven by a surge in new contracts
and increased staffing to meet demand at the start of the summer tourism
season.
Meanwhile, BDO’s business optimism index
came in at more than 100 for the third month in a row, rising by a modest 0.13
points to 102.22 to reach its highest
level since the middle of 2022.
The firm said that the sustained growth in
confidence reflected easing inflationary pressures and expectations
of further interest rate cuts, after the Bank of England lowered
borrowing costs for the first time since March 2020 late last month.
Still, BDO’s inflation index posted
its third straight month of growth, coming in at 97.76 in July.
The expansion was driven by growth in
consumer inflation, with the corresponding index rising to 99.91 – albeit
remaining below the year-to-date average of 100.69.
BDO said its inflation index is expected
to stay broadly around recent levels in the coming months as deflationary
pressures from April’s energy price cut fade away.
More
UK business output jumps to highest level in two years as further rate cuts expected (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Inflation
set to rise back above 2% Bank of England target this week
Inflation
has been at the Bank's target of 2 per cent for two months but is set to rise
August
12, 2024 6:00 am
Inflation
is expected to have risen above the Bank of England’s target level of 2 per
cent, experts predicted ahead of figures being released on Wednesday.
In
the 12 months leading up to June, the consumer prices index (CPI) measure of
inflation stood at 2 per
cent,
but economists think July’s figure will be around 2.3 per cent.
The
Bank of England forecasts that inflation will rise to 2.4 per cent in July’s
CPI data. Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests it will go up to 2.3 per cent, as
does Deutsche Bank Research.
The
major reason for this is that inflation is measured based on the growth in
prices over the past year, so a large part of the figure is based on what
prices were 12 months ago.
In
April, the energy price
cap –
the maximum most households pay for each unit of gas or electricity used – was
cut by the regulator Ofgem. In April 2023,
the amount people were paying for their energy was at the highest level on
record, but the cap fell in July 2023.
So
while energy prices deflated dramatically in the 12 months leading up to April
to June 2024, dragging the headline inflation figure down, the deflation is
less dramatic in July.
Forecasters
expect core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, to stay at around 3.5
per cent and services CPI, which measures items such as rail tickets and
hospitality costs, to drop a little, with Deutsche Bank and Pantheon
Macroeconomics saying it could go from 5.7 to 5.5 per cent.
“Positive
base effects, mainly from energy prices, will likely push headline inflation
higher through the second half of 2024. But there is good news. Services
inflation, we expect, should continue its descent – albeit gradually,” said
Sanjay Raja of Deutsche Bank Research.
More
Inflation set to rise back above 2% Bank of England target this week (inews.co.uk)
Small
US Inflation Pickup Won’t Derail a Fed Rate Cut in September
Sun, 11 August 2024 at 8:12 pm BST
(Bloomberg)
-- US inflation probably picked up modestly in July, but not enough to derail
the Federal Reserve from a widely anticipated interest-rate cut next month.
The
consumer price index on Wednesday is expected to have risen 0.2% from June for
both the headline figure and the so-called core gauge that excludes food and
energy. While each would be an acceleration from June, the annual metrics
should continue to rise at some of the slowest paces seen since early 2021.
The
recent easing of price pressures has bolstered Fed officials’ confidence that
they can start to lower borrowing costs while refocusing their attention on the
labor market, which is showing greater signs of slowing.
The
July jobs report showed US employers substantially scaled back hiring and the
unemployment rate rose for a fourth month, triggering a key recession indicator
and contributing to a global stock market selloff.
Should
the CPI come in as expected, it would indicate that inflation remains on a
downward trend, and economists reckon a slight pickup is due after June’s
surprisingly low reading. They see the reversal largely stemming from what’s
known as core services excluding housing — a key category watched by
policymakers. Some forecasters are also flagging an upside risk to goods prices
given higher shipping costs.
However,
the long-awaited slowdown in shelter costs that started in June should
continue. That category comprises about a third of the overall CPI and is a big
determinant of the broader inflation trend.
The
producer price index — due a day before the CPI — will be scrutinized for
categories that feed through to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the
personal consumption expenditures price index.
What
Bloomberg Economics Says:
“July’s
CPI will likely be soft, with the year-over-year change in core CPI edging
further down. Markets may rally around this news, but we think the implication
for Fed’s preferred price gauge — the core PCE deflator — will be more mixed
when the CPI data are taken account together with PPI.”
Small US Inflation Pickup Won’t Derail a Fed Rate Cut in September (yahoo.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Thoughts
On Covid-19 As The Paris Olympics Comes To A Close
Aug 11, 2024,06:00pm EDT
The
2024 Paris Olympics ended today with a stunning Closing Ceremony to celebrate
the quadrennial gathering of the world’s best athletes. Lists abound of medals
won and world records set. But another list also exists, a list people hoped would
not be necessary. A list of the athletes affected by Covid-19.
These
Olympics were billed as the first post-pandemic games. Tokyo 2020, in contrast,
always will be remembered as the Covid Olympics. Postponed from the summer of
2020 until the summer of 2021 because of the pandemic, restrictions were tight.
Spectators largely were prohibited. And athletes were closely monitored. As
United States kayaker and 2024 bronze medal-winner Evy Leibarth noted before
the Paris games began, “we tested every day for a month leading into the [Tokyo
2020] Olympics and then every day while we were there.”
The
positive impact of these precautions was remarkable. Only a small number of
athletes tested positive and a significant uptick in cases among the residents
of Japan did not occur. As noted by Dr. Brian
McCloskey,
one of the architects of the Tokyo 2020 Covid-19 response, “Tokyo 2020 did not
lead to a spreading event, let alone a super -spreading event.” Basic public
health measures worked.
Similar
precautions were in place for the 2022 Winter Games held in Beijing. In
addition to mandatory testing and limited spectators, athletes had to be
vaccinated. Again, basic public health measures worked.
Jump
ahead to 2024. The pandemic landscape differs dramatically. Highly effective
vaccines have been deployed throughout the world. Reported cases,
hospitalizations, and deaths associated with Covid-19 have decreased
significantly. Official Covid-19 precautions for the athletes largely were
absent. And thousands of fans from throughout the world enjoyed the
competitions.
But
Covid-19 remains a threat. That fact became quite evident even before the 2024
Olympics began when several members of the Australian women’s
water polo team tested
positive for Covid-19. Other cases have been reported throughout the Games. The
British swimmer Adam Peaty tested
positive hours after winning the silver medal in the men’s 100M breaststroke.
American sprinter Noah Lyles disclosed
that he had tested positive days before finishing third in the men’s 200M race.
Because mandatory testing is not occurring, the total number of athletes who
have been infected is difficult to estimate.
It's
also difficult to estimate the effect of Covid-19 on the athletes. In the
absence of Covid-19, would Adam Peaty have won gold in the 200M breaststroke?
Would Noah Lyles have added a gold in the 200M sprint to his 100M gold? Did
Noah Lyles put other competitors at risk by competing when he know he was
infected? We can’t answer those questions. We do know that Covid-19 can cause
serious respiratory problems, even among people who are fully vaccinated. The
impact should not be ignored.
The
thrill of the Paris 2024 Olympics was remarkable. The energy of the crowds was
palpable. Clearly, the world is emerging from the pandemic shadow. Once again,
large events can occur. Once again, we can celebrate as a community. The
atmosphere in Paris was incredible. We needed it. But Covid-19 has not gone
away. The risk remains.
Thoughts On Covid-19 As The Paris Olympics Comes To A Close (forbes.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Turning unused
signals such as Wi-Fi into energy for electronics
Date: August
7, 2024
Source:
Tohoku University
Summary:
We are constantly surrounded by electromagnetic waves such as Wi-Fi.
Researchers tested a device to convert this ambient energy into energy for
electronic devices.
We are
constantly surrounded by electromagnetic waves such as Wi-Fi and Bluetooth
signals. What if we could turn the unused excess into usable energy?
Researchers at Tohoku University, the National University of Singapore, and the
University of Messina developed a novel technology to efficiently harvest
ambient low-power radiofrequency (RF) signals into direct-current (DC) power.
This 'rectifier' technology can be easily integrated into energy harvesting
modules to power electronic devices and sensors, enabling battery-free
operation.
The
results were published in Nature Electronics on July 24, 2024.
The
downside of this method is that the source of the signal typically has to be in
close proximity to the electronic device in question.
Existing
technologies, such as the Schottky diode, face challenges in terms of low
RF-to-DC conversion efficiency for faint ambient RF signals (typically less
than -20 dBm).
To
address these challenges, the research team has developed a compact and
sensitive rectifier technology that uses a nanoscale spin-rectifier (SR) to
convert ambient wireless RF signals that are less than -20 dBm to a DC voltage.
The SR
consists of a nanoscale magnetic tunnel junction made of CoFeB/MgO, that is
used in a nonvolatile memory technology.
The
team optimized the SR devices, taking particular attention to the material's
magnetic anisotropy, device geometry, and tunneling barrier properties.
Then,
the RF-to-DC conversion performance was tested for two configurations: 1) a
single SR-based rectenna operational between -62 dBm and -20 dBm, and 2) an
array of 10 SRs in series.
Integrating
the SR-array into an energy harvesting module, they successfully powered a
commercial temperature sensor at -27 dBm.
Collecting
and then converting ambient energy sources into usable energy is referred to as
"harvesting." Small devices can harvest the energy, which can reduce
battery dependency, extend device lifetimes, and minimize the environmental
impact.
Instead
of having to physically travel to devices in remote regions to constantly
replace batteries, the device can be powered remotely by ambient energy sources
such as everyday RF wireless signals.
The
researchers are now exploring the integration of an on-chip antenna to improve
the efficiency and compactness. The team is also developing series-parallel
connections to tune impedance in large arrays of SRs, utilizing on-chip
interconnects to connect individual SRs. This approach aims to improve how RF
power is harvested. The study of this technology may lead to the adoption of a
self-sustaining, green alternative energy choice that could solve many issues
in the future.
Turning unused
signals such as Wi-Fi into energy for electronics | ScienceDaily
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
If you
put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd
be a shortage of sand.
Milton
Friedman.
No comments:
Post a Comment