Baltic Dry Index. 1820 +62 Brent Crude 81.34
Spot Gold 1980 US 2 Year Yield 4.88 +0.05
"Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody."
Alan Greenspan.
It is a Thanksgiving Day holiday shortened trading week in the US
stock casinos this week. Until recently, that was usually bullish for most US
major stocks. Lately, the casino action has been more erratic.
With two wars in full swing and an angry OPEC+ meeting coming up next Sunday, this might be a good week to lower casino risk.
China leaves
benchmark lending rates unchanged; Japan stocks briefly touch 33-year highs
UPDATED MON, NOV 20 2023 12:03 AM
EST
Asia-Pacific markets started the week higher
after most major bourses ended lower in the previous session, while China left
its benchmark lending rates unchanged.
The People’s Bank of China’s
one-year loan prime rate — the peg for most household and corporate loans in
China — was at 3.45%. The five-year benchmark loan rate — the peg for most
mortgages — stood at 4.2%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 briefly
touched a
33-year high earlier in the session, but struggled to hold on
to gains afterwards. The index was down 0.08%, while the Topix fell 0.31%.
Investors will be watching out for Japan’s October inflation figures on Friday.
Hong
Kong stocks led declines in Asia-Pacific on Friday, as shares
of Alibaba plunged
after the Chinese e-commerce giant said it
would not proceed with the full spinoff of its cloud group.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose
1.83%, while China’s CSI 300 fell 0.23%.
South Korea’s Kospi rose about
0.75%, while the small-cap Kosdaq saw a larger gain of 1.42%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained
0.16%.
On Friday, the S&P 500 ended
higher and clinched a third straight winning week amid a red-hot November
rally.
The broader index added 0.13%.
The Dow Jones
Industrial Average ended
the day higher by 0.01%, while the Nasdaq Composite crept
up by 0.08%.
The main U.S. indexes clocked
their third straight positive week. The S&P 500 added 2.2%, while the
Nasdaq jumped about 2.4%. The Dow closed the week with a 1.9% advance. This is
the first three-week win streak for the Dow and S&P 500 since July, and the
first since June for the Nasdaq.
Live
markets: Asia markets bounce as Japan hits 33-year high, China LPR unchanged
(cnbc.com)
Stock futures open little changed to start the
shortened Thanksgiving holiday week
UPDATED SUN, NOV 19 2023 9:25 PM
EST
U.S. equity futures opened little changed on
Sunday evening, heading into the shortened Thanksgiving holiday week with all
of the major averages coming off of their third straight winning performance.
Futures
tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
2 points, or less than 0.1%. S&P 500
futures were
down by about 3 points, or nearly 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were
lower by 34 points, or 0.2%.
The S&P 500 closed
last week higher by 2.2% and the Dow added
1.9%, marking the first three-week streak for the indexes since July. The Nasdaq Composite finished
the week higher by 2.4%, notching its best week since June.
The yield on the benchmark
U.S. 10-year Treasury had also ended
Friday at its lowest level since Sept. 20, leading some traders
to expect that Treasury yields will continue to compete with equities and
become more attractive to investors.
Market bulls remain enthusiastic
into the year-end, however, particularly after cooler-than-expected U.S.
inflation data released last week calmed investors’ nerves about stubbornly
high prices and provided
a hopeful indication that the Federal Reserve could stop
raising interest rates.
“I actually think it’s pretty
likely we could see record highs before the end of the year,” Bill Baruch,
founder at Blue Line Futures, told CNBC’s “Halftime Report” on Friday.
“This is one of the most healthy consolidations over the last couple of
days.”
Ahead of the Thanksgiving
Day-shortened week, traders
are awaiting Nvidia’s earnings and forward guidance out
Tuesday. The chipmaker, which has since its stock price skyrocket this year
amid the craze around artificial intelligence, is expected to beat on earnings
and revenue estimates for the third quarter, according to analysts polled by
FactSet. Concerns still exist about the company’s valuation, however.
Investors and techies
are also rattled by Friday’s sudden ouster of OpenAI’s former
CEO Sam Altman and the resignations of other top executives and staff members
at the Microsoft-backed company, igniting broader concerns about the future of
the AI industry.
Trading around the Thanksgiving
holiday has been choppy in recent years, but November is still the
best-performing month for the S&P 500, according to the Stock Traders’
Almanac.
Stock
futures open little changed to start the shortened Thanksgiving holiday week
(cnbc.com)
In other news, is the boom over for electric vehicles?
Is
OPEC+ about to cut production again next Sunday?
Shares of Foxconn's EV unit slide 9% in market debut
November 20, 2023 4:45
AM GMT
TAIPEI,
Nov 20 (Reuters) - Shares of Foxtron Vehicle Technologies (2258.TW), a unit of iPhone
supplier Foxconn (2317.TW), fell as much as 9% in
their market debut on Monday, hurt concerns over potential headwinds in the
highly competitive electric vehicle market.
In
addition to inflation and high interest rates which have raised the cost of
buying a car, EV makers are also grappling with supply-chain bottlenecks and
pricing pressure from the likes of Tesla (TSLA.O), which led EV price cuts
this year.
Tesla
CEO Elon Musk last month raised concerns about expanding factory capacity until
interest rates ease, echoing similar notes of caution from General Motors (GM.N) and Ford.
"The EV
market has been flooded by a red sea of price cuts by major players such as
Tesla," said an analyst at Mega International Securities, who asked not to
be named, citing the firm's policies on commenting publicly on listed
companies.
"Foxtron has
lost money in 2021 and 2022, and we don't think it will turn around in the next
two years.".
More
Shares
of Foxconn's EV unit slide 9% in market debut | Reuters
Oil extends gains as OPEC+ to mull deeper cuts
By Florence Tan and Emily Chow November 20, 2023 3:59 AM GMT
SINGAPORE, Nov 20
(Reuters) - Oil futures nudged higher on Monday, extending gains on
expectations of OPEC+ deepening supply cuts to shore up prices, which have
fallen for four weeks on easing concern of Middle East supply disruption amid
the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Brent crude
futures climbed 57 cents, or 0.7%, to $81.18 a barrel by 0400 GMT while U.S.
West Texas Intermediate crude was at $76.40 a barrel, up 51 cents or 0.7%. The
front-month December contract expires later on Monday while the more active
January futures gained 55 cents, or 0.7%, at $76.59 a barrel.
Both contracts settled 4% higher on Friday after
three OPEC+ sources told Reuters that the producer group, made up of the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including
Russia, is set to consider whether to make additional oil supply cuts when it
meets on Nov. 26.
Oil prices have dropped by almost 20% since late
September while prompt inter-month spreads for Brent and WTI slipped into
contango last week. Prompt prices are lower than those in future months in a
contango market, signalling sufficient supply.
IG analyst Tony
Sycamore said WTI prices may rise toward $80 a barrel on the back of the
possibility that OPEC+ does announce deeper cuts at their upcoming meeting
although a drop below $72 will encourage the Biden administration to refill the
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
"All of
which suggest that a rebound in prices is likely in the first half of this
week," he added.
Investors
are also eyeing disruption in Russian crude oil trade after Washington imposed sanctions on three
ships that have sent Sokol crude to India.
On
Friday, Moscow lifted a ban on gasoline exports which
could add to global supplies of the motor fuel. This comes after Russia
scrapped most restrictions on exports of diesel last month.
In
the Middle East, U.S. and Israeli officials said a deal to free some of the
hostages held in the besieged Gaza enclave was edging closer despite fierce fighting.
U.S. energy
firms last week also added oil and gas rigs for the first time in three weeks,
said energy services firm Baker Hughes on Friday, with the oil and gas rig
count serving as an early indicator of future output.
Oil
extends gains as OPEC+ to mull deeper cuts | Reuters
Finally, what the folly of fiat money eventually brings to Argentina. Desperation. Where America and the EU are headed without reform?
Argentina
Takes Leap Into Unknown With Javier Milei as President
Sun, November 19, 2023 at 11:13 PM
GMT
(Bloomberg) -- Libertarian
outsider Javier Milei won Argentina’s presidency promising a radical shakeup to
fix decades of policy mismanagement, a strategy that resonated with a populace
suffering under a nosediving economy and one of the world’s fastest inflation
rates.
With 99% of ballots counted after
Sunday’s runoff election, Milei took 56% of the votes to 44% for Economy
Minister Sergio Massa of the incumbent left-wing Peronist coalition, according
to the official electoral authority. The scale of his victory was unexpected,
and Massa conceded before the results were released.
“Today starts the rebuilding of
Argentina,” Milei told the jubilant crowd at his campaign headquarters in
Buenos Aires, while supporters flooded the capital waving the national flag.
“There’s no room for gradual measures.”
The result hands Milei a mandate to
pursue campaign pledges including ditching the peso for the US dollar and
shuttering the central bank, while undertaking drastic cuts to public spending
in an attempt to jolt the country of 46 million out of its malaise.
Yet Milei’s brand of shock therapy
sets Argentina on a path of deep uncertainty, with some economists warning that
dollarizing the $622 billion economy at a time when international reserves are
depleted could tip the South American nation into another bout of
hyperinflation. International Monetary Fund officials have meanwhile called on
the next government to swiftly reset the economy, emphasizing that there’s no
time for gradual policies.
“Argentines chose another path,”
Massa told his supporters, calling on Milei to meet with President Alberto
Fernandez and ensure economic and political certainty during the transition and
give institutional direction to the country. Milei is due to take office Dec.
10.
The fact that Argentines opted for
radical change instead of the continuity offered by Massa and the once
all-conquering Peronist movement is testament to the pain they are feeling as
inflation gallops toward 143%, robbing them of their buying power.
What Bloomberg Economics Says
“Milei’s ambitious vision of a
market-friendly, small-state, dollarized Argentina will finally be put to test.
He has yet to clarify on timing and process for dollarization — which, with
negative reserves, doesn’t seem feasible for the near term. His ample victory
gives him political capital to move ahead with his economic agenda, but doesn’t
shield him from the political costs from the measures he needs to implement to
make good on his promises.”
— Adriana Dupita, Latin America
economist
— Click here for the full report
Attention will now turn to how Milei
implements his most contested measures with only a handful of representatives
in a fragmented congress and an impatient electorate, with more than 40% of
Argentines below the poverty line.
Before then, the central bank has
nearly run out of international reserves to prop up the peso, meaning a large
currency devaluation is expected any day now. Monday is a public holiday in
Argentina but the country’s offshore assets will be trading in international
markets.
More
Argentina Takes Leap Into Unknown With Javier Milei as President (yahoo.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
What's
next for the global economy: Will Fed rates go down next year?
UK
inflation tumbled to the lowest level in two years
Published: November 18, 2023 14:37
Inflation
eased in both the US and UK, prompting bets that central banks on both sides of
the Atlantic will start cutting interest rates by the middle of next year.
Meantime,
expectations for growth across Europe are improving, but the rebound remains
fragile in the European Union's east. The economic recoveries underway in China
and Japan are also shaky given slowing consumption, among other factors.
Here are
some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest
developments in the global economy:
US
US inflation
broadly slowed in October, which markets cheered as a strong indication that
the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates. Traders also pulled forward
bets of when the Fed will first cut rates into the first half of next year.
There's
talk of a great divide in the US housing market, as new buyers get crushed by 8
per cent mortgage rates while earlier ones cling gratefully to loans of
less than 3 per cent. Missing from this story is a third, even more fortunate
group: the rapidly growing number of Americans who own their homes outright.
The share of homes that are mortgage-free stood at a record just shy of 40 per
cent.
Over the
past 11 meetings of the Fed's Open Market Committee, not a single member voted
against the actions led by Chair Jerome Powell, an unusually long stretch of
unanimity that belies underlying differences and uncertainty over the direction
of monetary policy and the economy.
Europe
UK
inflation tumbled to the lowest level in two years, firming up bets that the
Bank of England will be able to cut rates as early as the middle of next year.
The euro
area and its biggest economies will avoid a recession as growth returns at the
end of the year, helped by slowing inflation and a robust jobs market,
according to new European Union forecasts. Even Germany, which has fared worse
than peers amid a prolonged manufacturing slump, is predicted to avoid a
recession.
The
biggest economies in the European Union's east are entering a fragile rebound
as easing inflation encourages consumers to start spending again. Still, the
picture remains clouded with inflation fading slowly in coming months.
Manufacturing is also reeling from falling demand in the euro area, a major
trading partner.
Asia
Japan's
economy slipped back into reverse over the summer, underscoring the fragility
of the country's recovery and backing the case for continued support from the
Bank of Japan and the government. Gross domestic product declined at a 2.1 per
cent annual rate in the third quarter, largely on the back of falling business
spending, a lack of recovery in consumer spending, and higher imports.
China's
consumption rebound slowed and private business confidence lost momentum in
October, according to independent surveys and alternative data that suggested
the economic recovery remains bumpy.
More
What's next for the global economy: Will Fed rates go down next year? | Economy – Gulf News
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
A Comprehensive List
of All of the COVID-19 Variants and How They Compare, Per Doctors
Sat, November 18, 2023 at 12:30 PM GMT
The coronavirus has come a long
way since 2020. While the days of sanitizing Amazon packages and standing six
feet apart may feel like they’re behind us (and they very well may be), the
SARS-Co-V-2 virus (which causes COVID-19),
continues to evolve. With Alpha, Delta, Omicron, and more iterations, it’s normal to wonder how many
COVID variants are there? Ahead, experts explain the evolution of COVID-19, and
the latest variants of concern.
Meet the experts: Linda Yancey, M.D., an infectious diseases specialist at Memorial Hermann
Hospital; and Peter Kasson, M.D., Ph.D., B.S., of University of Virginia’s departments of Molecular
Physiology and Biomedical Engineering.
What is a COVID variant?
A variant is just a slightly
changed virus, Linda Yancey, M.D., an infectious diseases specialist at Memorial Hermann
Hospital says. “Viruses go through generations just like people do. And like
people, each virus generation is a little different from the one that came
before,” she says. In the case of COVID-19, the virus has mutated multiple
times, leading to variants like Alpha and Delta, and various subvariants of
Omicron.
“Variants that can infect people
better or evade immunity to the last variant are more likely to cause a new
COVID wave,” Peter Kasson, M.D., Ph.D., B.S., of the University of Virginia’s departments of
Molecular Physiology and Biomedical Engineering says. “Variants that are
different enough, or concerning enough, sometimes get special names.” Examples
of this include Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron. Variants are further broken
down into subvariants with labels like EG.5, or “Eris,” or XBB.1.16.6—both are subvariants of Omicron.
Why do variants develop?
Viruses like SARS-CoV-2 and
influenza carry their genetic code in RNA (ribonucleic acid, a nucleic acid present in all living cells), Dr. Kasson
says. “When more RNA is made, there is a certain chance that the copy will not
be perfect and a mutation will occur,” Dr. Kasson says. “Since millions of
people are getting COVID, there are a lot of chances for mutations.”
The concept of a “variant” comes
from the same idea as a “strain,”—it’s just a difference in the viral genome,
Dr. Kasson says. Most mutations either make the virus “infect worse or have no
effect,” Dr. Kasson says, but some make the virus infect people more
efficiently or help it evade existing immunity—a.k.a. make it harder for
vaccines to protect against infection. “These mutations have a chance to spread
further,” Dr. Kasson says.
How many COVID variants are there?
So far, there have been four
major variants: Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron. Some of these contain multiple
subvariants, though, each with their own name. The most prominent variants of
COVID-19 include:
More
A Comprehensive List of All of the COVID-19 Variants and How They Compare, Per Doctors (yahoo.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
White House hopes to power up American battery
factories with $3.5B fund
November 17, 2023
The Biden
administration is splurging $3.5 billion to recharge the American battery
industry and increase its manufacturing output, with the Department of Energy
handing out the cash.…
In a funding
notice announced by the DoE Wednesday, the dept's Office of Manufacturing and
Energy Supply Chains (MESC) said it was seeking proposals from US-based
companies to "boost domestic battery manufacturing and supply chains to
effectively support the clean energy transition."
Those
proposals making the grade will get a slice of the funds. And we're talking
batteries suitable for electric cars and trucks as well as power supplies for
homes and electronics, here.
MESC defines
battery supply chains as consisting of five steps - raw material production,
material processing and refinement, battery material and cell fabrication, pack
assembly and recycling - all of which can apply for funding.
"Positioning
the United States front and center to meet the growing demand for advanced
batteries is how we boost our global competitiveness, maintain and create
good-paying jobs, and strengthen our clean energy economy," said US
Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm.
According to
the DoE, the funds will prioritize next-generation battery technology and
chemistry, alongside traditional lithium ion designs that are still the most
popular option the world has for powering the move toward
electrification.
The DoE claims
that demand for electric vehicles and stationary energy storage batteries is
set to increase ten fold by the end of the decade, and describes domestic
production of batteries and mining of materials like lithium as a key national
security goal. It's also key to the federal government's push to meet the goal
of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.
The funding
for this and other US clean energy initiatives of late comes from the
bipartisan infrastructure deal that President Biden signed into law in late
2021. Previous clean energy allotments from the bipartisan bill have included
funding for electric vehicle charging infrastructure expansion and several
billions spent on enticing automakers to open up new battery manufacturing
plants in the American Midwest.
Of course, all
the domestic manufacturing capability in the world doesn't mean anything if the
materials are all being extracted overseas, but luckily for America a massive
deposit of lithium was recently found in the US states of Oregon and Nevada
that may be one of the world's largest deposits.
The world's
energy companies have variously announced plans to ensure they don't become
yesterday's fossils, too. US-based ExxonMobil, in particular, recently
announced plans to start extracting lithium in Arkansas, where the corporation
has already begun drilling wells. Exxon expects to be able to produce lithium
from its Arkansas sites by 2027.
Lithium mining
and extraction can be incredibly environmentally destructive and requires a lot
of water, with around 2.2 million litres needed to produce a single ton of the
stuff. Whether anyone bidding for a slice of the Biden administration's latest
battery funding pie has plans to develop more sustainable methods of lithium
extraction remains to be seen - applications for funding aren't due until March
2024.
White House hopes to power up American battery
factories with $3.5B fund (msn.com)
“If the governments devalue the
currency in order to betray all creditors, you politely call this procedure
“inflation.”
George Bernard Shaw.
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