Baltic Dry Index. 1820 +62 Brent Crude 80.61
Spot Gold 1981 U S 2 Year Yield 4.88 +0.05
November 18, 1916. The Battle of the Somme ends.
The Battle of the Somme was one of the largest and most well-known battles of World War I. It lasted from 1st July to 18th November 1916 on the banks of the Somme River, in France. It was also one of the bloodiest battles of the war, or of any war before or since.
On 18 November 1916, with the
weather deteriorating, Haig shut down the offensive. The Allies had only
advanced seven miles (12 km) and there was still no breakthrough in sight.
The British Empire had suffered 420,000 casualties and the French 200,000 in the process. German losses were at least 450,000 killed and wounded.
In the stock casinos, Fear Of Missing Out is back.
Who cares we have two murderous wars raging; that most corporations must roll over debt from roughly two percent interest to roughly five percent interest.
That US commercial real estate is in deep and rising crisis, with CRE loan defaults now just starting to impact regional and local banks.
Who cares that student loan defaults are rising, as are non performing auto loans, plus rising non performing credit card debt.
Those are all problems for
another day. After all, Fed Chairman Powell and the Fedsters are just about to
bring out the punchbowl again, right?
Wall St Week Ahead: After breathtaking surge, US stocks' path
may rest on economic soft landing
By Lewis Krauskopf November 17, 2023 8:15 PM GMT
NEW YORK, Nov 17
(Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a
pause ahead? That’s the question investors are asking as the S&P 500 heads
into the close of the year with fresh highs coming into view.
Signs of cooling inflation have fueled hopes that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, helping extend a rally that has seen the S&P 500 (.SPX) gain over 9% since late October. The index is now up nearly 18% for the year and less than 2% away from its year-high, reached in July. Its record closing level, from January 2022, is some 6% away.
Whether it
can reach those levels in coming weeks depends in-part on how convinced
investors are that the U.S. economy is on track for a so-called soft landing,
where the Fed brings down inflation without badly damaging growth. So far, the
economy has proven resilient in the face of tighter monetary policy, though
some measures of employment and consumer demand have softened.
Rising
valuations and still-elevated Treasury yields pose another obstacle. Other
factors, however, including historical seasonal trends, could support more
gains.
“We have this
balance right now between a lower inflation outlook and a better interest rate
trajectory ... juxtaposed against a slowing economy,” said Yung-Yu Ma, chief
investment officer at BMO Wealth Management.
Association
of Active Investment Managers exposure index showed.
U.S.
equity funds drew about $9.33 billion in
net inflows in the week to Nov. 15, the largest weekly net purchase since Sept.
13, according to LSEG data.
Treasury yields,
whose steady rise over the last few months has weighed on stocks, have rapidly
retreated: the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.43% early Friday,
from a 16-year high of just above 5% last month. Yields move inversely to bond
prices.
----Seasonality is also in stocks' favor: November
and December have posted the year's second- and third-biggest monthly returns
since 1950, rising 1.5% and 1.4% on average, according to the Stock Trader's
Almanac.
Equities
face a number of tests next week. Chip heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA.O) reports quarterly
results on Tuesday, the last report this earnings season from the
"Magnificent Seven" megacap companies, whose massive share price
gains led equity indexes higher this year.
The
health of the consumer-driven economy comes into view with Black Friday, the day after
Thanksgiving that is the traditional start of U.S. holiday shopping. Data on
Wednesday showed U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in
October.
One source of
worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations. The S&P 500 trades at
18.7 times forward 12-months earnings estimates, a roughly two-month high and
well above its long-term average of 15.6, according to LSEG Datastream.
More
Tech stocks wrap up strongest three-week rally since
early days of Covid in April 2020
Tech investors are marching towards Thanksgiving
with plenty of holiday cheer.
The Nasdaq rose 2.4% this week,
bringing its three-week gains to 12%. It’s the strongest rally over that amount
of time since April 2020, when early Covid stay-at-home requirements led to a
surge in e-commerce and cloud software stocks.
Intel was
the biggest winner among large-cap tech stops this week, climbing 13%. Shares
of the chipmaker are now up 35% since Oct. 26, when the company reported better-than-expected
profit and sales, bolstered by stronger demand for PCs.
Analysts at Mizuho Securities lifted their rating
on Intel to buy from neutral this week, citing a renewed emphasis on the
company’s data center business and an encouraging customer pipeline, which
could drive up “share gains and improve margins.”
Semiconductors will be the primary
area of focus next week for tech investors, as Nvidia is
scheduled to report results on Tuesday. The stock has
jumped 22% in the past three weeks, bringing its gains for the year to 237%,
far surpassing all other members of the S&P 500.
Nvidia has been the biggest
beneficiary of the boom in generative artificial intelligence, providing the
graphics processing units (GPUs) to handle the powerful workload requirements.
In its earnings report next week, the company is expected to show revenue
growth of over 170% for the third quarter, and for the fourth quarter analysts
are expecting Nvidia’s forecast to suggest growth of close to 200%, according
to LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv.
-----The tech sector tends to be one of the most sensitive when
it comes to interest rates, because low borrowing costs encourage risk, while
higher rates push investors into assets deemed safer.
The broader market got a boost this
week from tame U.S. inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), was flat
in October from a month earlier, while economists polled by Dow
Jones expected a gain of 0.1%. The numbers fueled further optimism that the
Fed’s rate-hiking campaign is over.
Following Intel, Tesla was
the next-biggest large-cap gainer this week, with shares of the electric
vehicle company climbing 9.2%. Investors shrugged off comments by CEO Elon Musk, who said on
his social media site X that he agreed with a post accusing
“Jewish communities” of pushing “hatred against whites.”
Regarding Musk’s post, White House
spokesman Andrew Bates said
in a statement that, “We condemn this abhorrent promotion of
Antisemitic and racist hate in the strongest terms, which runs against our core
values as Americans.”
Tech stocks wrap up strongest three-week rally since April 2020 (cnbc.com)
European shares end the week higher as bond yields slide on
rate cut bets
By Ankika Biswas and Bansari Mayur Kamdar November 17,
2023 5:27 PM GMT
Nov 17 (Reuters)
- European shares rose on Friday, boosted by financials and healthcare, ending
the week higher on growing optimism that central banks will aggressively cut
interest rates next year.
The
pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 1.0%, ending the
week 2.8% higher, as bond yields fell.
German
government bond yields hit their lowest in more than two months, with money
markets fully pricing in 100 basis point rate cuts by the European Central Bank
by end-2024.
"When you've
got growth slowing in the U.S., that's increasing expectations that central
banks around the world will be likely to follow suit," said Giles Coghlan,
chief market analyst at brokerage GCFX.
"With
Europe's growth prospects looking bleak, markets are only naturally starting to
look for rate cuts."
New
data confirmed year-on-year inflation slowed sharply in the euro zone in October.
However,
investors remained cautious about the impact of past rate hikes on economic
growth and company earnings.
ECB policymaker
Robert Holzmann repeated that the central bank must stand ready to raise
interest rates again if necessary, and said he did not expect the ECB to start
cutting rates in the second quarter as some think it will.
Fresh
data showed British retail sales volumes fell
unexpectedly in October, in a new warning sign for the economy.
Rate-sensitive
real estate stocks (.SX86P) rose
1.7%.
Miners (.SXPP) were the top sectoral
performers for the day and the week, lifted by firm copper prices as the U.S.
dollar weakened.
More
European
shares end the week higher as bond yields slide on rate cut bets | Reuters
But it’s not boom times for
all.
Volvo shares tumble 14% to record low as Chinese
owner Geely sells off stock
Volvo Cars shares tumbled as much as 14% on Friday
morning after its parent company Zhejiang Geely Holding Group began a sale
of around 100 million shares of the Swedish carmaker.
Shares of Volvo provisionally closed the session
down 11% after trimming some losses. The stock price had fallen by as much as
14% earlier in the day and hit a record low, according to Reuters data.
Volvo shares are down 25% year to date.
Geely said in
a statement earlier on Friday that it would release further shares of Volvo,
which was in line with its long-term strategy.
It said the move was designed to
increase liquidity of Volvo and “offer more opportunities to generate
sustainable long-term value for institutional and retail investors.”
Geely will still hold 78.7% of
Volvo shares following the sale, the statement said. Geely previously owned
around 82% of Volvo, putting the sold shares at over 3%.
The holdings were sold at a
significant discount and the sale totaled around $350 million, Reuters
reported.
More
Volvo
shares tumble to record low as parent company sells shares (cnbc.com)
More student loan borrowers are walking away from
their debt in bankruptcy, Biden administration says
More people with federal
student loans have been able to walk away from their debt in
bankruptcy court due to a Biden administration policy change announced last
November.
In the fall of 2022, the U.S.
Department of Education and the U.S. Department of Justice released updated bankruptcy guidelines to make it
easier for struggling borrowers to get their student loans erased in court.
Previously, it was difficult, if
not impossible, for people to part with their education debt in a
normal bankruptcy proceeding.
“I am thrilled that our one-year
review indicates that our efforts have made a real difference in borrowers’
lives,” said Associate Attorney General Vanita Gupta, in a
statement Thursday.
In the first 10 months of the new policy, student
loan borrowers filed more than 630 bankruptcy cases, a “significant increase”
from recent years, the departments said.
“The vast majority of borrowers seeking discharge
have received full or partial discharges,” they said.
Outstanding student debt in the U.S. exceeds $1.7
trillion, and around 7% of student loan borrowers have a balance of more than
$100,000. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, some 10 million borrowers were in
delinquency or default.
More
More
student loan borrowers walk away from their debt in bankruptcy (cnbc.com)
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
Goldie, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Wells Fargo
and Barclays make guesses of the economic future. None, of course, say panic
now!
Global economy to slow down but likely avoid recession in
2024
November 16, 2023 11:14 AM GMT
Nov 16 (Reuters) - Some of the major
banks in the world expect global economic growth to slow further in 2024,
squeezed by elevated interest rates, higher energy prices and a slowdown in the
world's two largest economies.
The global economy
is forecast to grow 2.9% this year, a Reuters
poll showed, with next year's growth seen slowing to 2.6%.
Most economists expect the global
economy to avoid a recession, but have flagged possibilities of "mild
recessions" in Europe and the UK.
A soft-landing for the
United States is still on the cards, although uncertainty around the Federal
Reserve's monetary tightening path clouds the outlook. China's growth is seen
weakening, exacerbated by companies seeking alternative cost-efficient production
destinations.
Following are forecasts
from major global banks
More, tables and tables of predictions
for 2024 on the global economy and US, China, EU, UK and Indian economies.
Worth a click.
Global economy to slow down but likely avoid recession
in 2024 | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Hmm. Did
the US fund SARS-Cov-2 and cover it up?
New Email Shows Fauci Adviser Suggesting He Destroyed Records
Dr.
David Morens sent the email to a group including a scientist who funneled money
to a laboratory in China.
11/16/2023 Updated: 11/16/2023
New Email Shows
Fauci Adviser Suggesting He Destroyed Records | The Epoch Times
A top deputy
to Dr. Anthony Fauci indicated in a newly uncovered email that he purposefully
did not keep records that he knew would be sought by the public and
congressional investigators.
"I have
retained very few emails or documents on these matters, and continue to request
that correspondence on sensitive issues be sent to me at my gmail [sic]
address," Dr. David Morens, the deputy, wrote in the June 17, 2021,
missive.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) obtained the email
and included it in a letter to Health Secretary Xavier
Becerra.
Dr.
Morens wrote to colleagues after senators, including Mr. Johnson, wrote to
then-National Institutes of Health (NIH) Director Dr. Francis Collins asking
for documents on how the NIH handled the COVID-19 pandemic, which started in a
city that features a laboratory that ran risky tests with funds from the NIH.
"Based on
this email, it appears that Dr. Morens may have intentionally deleted or
destroyed records relating to the origins of COVID-19 given his admission that
he has 'retained very few emails or documents on these matters," Mr.
Johnson told Mr. Becerra. "Further, Dr. Morens' stated preference to
receive correspondence on 'sensitive issues' through Gmail shows an apparent
evasion of federal record keeping requirements and a complete disregard for
transparency."
The Department
of Health and Human Services, which includes the NIH, has repeatedly failed to
hand over records that Mr. Johnson has requested, the senator noted. Dr.
Morens' apparent actions "may have directly obstructed my oversight
efforts," he wrote.
Mr. Johnson asked for all the records he has asked
for as well as an outline of how federal officials will hold Dr. Morens
accountable.
Mr. Becerra's agency did not respond to a request
for comment.
Dr. Morens has not responded to inquiries.
Dr. Morens is the senior adviser to the director at
the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, an NIH institute
that was headed until late 2022 by Dr. Fauci. Dr. Morens has worked for the
agency for more than two decades.
Dr. Morens was writing to others who were part of
the American Society of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene (AJTMH), including Dr.
Peter Daszak, whose EcoHealth Alliance group helped funnel money from the NIH
to the Wuhan laboratory.
---- In a missive obtained previously by the U.S. House of
Representatives panel investigating the pandemic, Dr. Morens wrote to a group
of scientists that "I try to always communicate on gmail [sic] because my
NIH email is FOIA'd constantly."
Under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA),
members of the public can request information like emails from the federal government.
Dr. Morens disclosed in the July 9, 2021, email
that his Gmail had been hacked and "until IT can get it fixed I may have
to occasionally email from my NIH account."
"Don't worry, just sent to any of my addresses
and I will delete anything I don't want to see in the New York Times," he
also wrote.
Michael Chamberlain, director of the watchdog
Protect the Public’s Trust, told The Epoch Times in an email that the missive
showed "a pretty brazen effort to avoid public records requirements."
More
New
Email Shows Fauci Adviser Suggesting He Destroyed Records | The Epoch Times
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
This weekend, something a little
different. The world’s most unusual clock.
This Astronomical Clock Tower Tells Wonders of
the Universe—And an Amazing Thing Happens at Noon
11/15/2023 Updated: 11/15/2023
Hidden away in a pretty Belgian town is an
extraordinarily beautiful and curious clock tower. Donated to the town by
autodidact Louis Zimmer, it sits in the wall of a large tower and features no
less than ten faces and two globes arranged around a central clock, decorated
in blue and gold.
The best time to visit one of the world’s most
impressive clock towers is at noon. Not only does this spectacular creation in
the town of Lier show everything from moon phases and the zodiac to tidal
movement and the time on different continents, but when the regular clock
strikes 12, something fun happens.
Like a more sophisticated version of a cuckoo
clock, a carousel pops out of a door, revealing a procession of Belgian kings,
mayors of the town, and coats of arms intended as an ode to history. Above this
are four moving automatons representing the four stages of life, in the form of
characters from Belgian fame and folklore.
Mr. Zimmer, a
local watchmaker who became clockmaker to the king of Belgium, was a strong
royalist. After developing a fascination with astronomy, he embarked on a
five-year project to construct his jubilee clock. Presented to Lier in 1930 to
mark 100 years of Belgian independence, Mr. Zimmer also intended to introduce
the world to the wonders of astronomy with his creation.
Also known as the Centenary Clock, Mr.
Zimmer’s creation sits in the ancient stone wall of a medieval tower,
dominating the little town square. Residents and visitors can sit outside a
café and muse upon the wealth of information it displays, including complex
concepts such as the equation of time: the
difference in time as measured by the sun and our clocks, which are not equal;
and the current year of the solar cycle.
A large globe
rotates once every 24 hours; the visible part shows which part of Earth is
experiencing day at any one time. Grand symbology corresponding to gods and
goddesses is used to depict the seven days of the week, with another clock dial
marking the month. Charming illustrations inscribed into a separate dial
indicate the four seasons of spring, summer, autumn, and winter. The care Mr.
Zimmer took to add incredible detail and precision to his work is evidenced in
his use of Arabic numerals to state the amount of days in a particular season,
and hours in Roman numerals.
More
This weekend’s music
diversion. Time for some Handel harp brilliance. Approx. 8 minutes.
Handel
Harp Concerto
Handel Harp Concerto - YouTube
This weekend’s chess
update. Approx. 11 minutes.
Greatest
Queen Sacrifice of 2023!?
Greatest Queen Sacrifice of 2023!? - YouTube
No
weekend the math’s update this week. This week, Soybeans in the USA, Soyabeans nearly
everywhere else. Approx. 13 minutes.
Why
The U.S. Is Now Obsessed With Soybeans
Why The U.S. Is Now Obsessed With Soybeans - YouTube
"When a country (USA) is losing
many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business
with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100
billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win
big. It’s easy!"
President Trump.
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