Monday, 27 November 2023

Stocks Wobble. Oil Slips. Gold Rises. Recession?

Baltic Dry Index. 2102 +247          Brent Crude  79.97

Spot Gold 2011                  US 2 Year Yield 4.92 +0.03

You can fool some of the people some of the time -- and that's enough to make a decent living.

Fed Chairman Powell W. C. Fields

This morning, more stock casino wobble in Asia, with European stock casinos heading for a lower opening.

In America, the Leading Economic Index is signalling recession ahead. I think it’s actually signalling that the US economy has already entered recession, but that won’t be officially declared for months.


Asian markets reverse early gains as China property stocks plunge; Japan service inflation heats up

UPDATED SUN, NOV 26 2023 10:37 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets started the week largely lower, with Chinese markets dragged by property stocks and Japan’s service inflation surging to a 45-month high.

Data showed Japan’s service PPI rose 2.3% in October to its highest level since January 2020 and more than the prior month’s reading of 2%.

On Monday, China’s industrial profits continued to shrink in November, but at its slowest pace in almost a year, according to data released by the government.

The world’s second largest economy will release its official factory activity figures for November on Thursday, while the Caixin survey for the same metric will be out on Friday.

Australia will release its October inflation figures on Wednesday, which will offer clues to its central bank’s policy moves. India’s gross domestic product numbers for the three months ended September will be released late Thursday.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 1.04%, while mainland Chinese markets were also in negative territory, with the CSI 300 index tumbling 1.03%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.44%, reversing gains earlier in the day.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 also slipped 0.43%, but the index is close to breaching its 33-year high of 33,753.33, hit on July 3. The Topix, meanwhile, shed 0.39%

South Korea’s Kospi was the only major benchmark in positive territory, up 0.1%, but the small-cap Kosdaq was down 0.36%.

On Friday in the U.S., the three major indexes were mixed in a shortened trading session.

The 30-stock Dow rose 0.33% while the S&P 500 ticked higher by 0.06%. However, the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.11%.

Major retail shares rose slightly as Black Friday kicked off the holiday shopping season. Walmart and Target rose 0.9% and 0.74%, respectively, while Amazon ticked higher by 0.02%.

Asia stock markets today: Live updates, China property stocks, Japan PPI surges (cnbc.com)


European markets set to start the week on a somber note

UPDATED MON, NOV 27 2023 12:29 AM EST

European markets are heading for a negative start to the new trading week, days after the region’s Stoxx 600 index reached its highest level since Sept. 20.

Asia-Pacific markets started the week largely lower, with Chinese markets dragged by property stocks and Japan’s service inflation surging to a 45-month high.

U.S. stock futures dipped on Sunday evening as Wall Street looks to build on four straight positive weeks for the equity market. Wall Street is coming off the fourth-straight winning week for all three major averages, as stocks have rallied since the 10-year Treasury yield retreated from the 5% mark it briefly topped in late October.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)


Stock futures fall slightly on Sunday evening with Wall Street riding a four-week winning streak

UPDATED SUN, NOV 26 2023 7:03 PM EST

Stock futures dipped on Sunday evening as Wall Street looks to build on four straight positive weeks for the equity market.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 38 points, or 0.1%. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 slipped about 0.2% each.

Wall Street is coming off the fourth-straight winning week for all three major averages, as stocks have rallied since the 10-year Treasury yield retreated from the 5% mark it briefly topped in late October.

The rally has come despite warnings from some U.S. retailers that consumer spending is weakening. Traders will be looking for updates about the start of the holiday shopping season after Black Friday.

Weak spending data could suggest that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are finally starting to weigh on the broader economy.

“The New York Fed’s latest household survey shows that a record-high share of consumers are saying that it is much harder to obtain credit ... This is what the textbook would have predicted. When the Fed raises interest rates it becomes more difficult for consumers to borrow,” Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, said in a note to clients on Sunday.

The week ahead is also a busy one for economic indicators and Fed commentary. On Monday, new home sales and the latest Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey are due out. Readings for consumer confidence and inflation follow later in the week.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Conference Board’s Advance Indicator, Below Previous Month And Below Expectations: 0.8%

21ST NOVEMBER 2023

The Conference Board’s index of US leading economic indicators, the Leading Economic Index (LEI), declined 0.8% in October compared to September, after falling 0.7% in September. The FactSet consensus of analysts expected a decline of 0.6%. In the April to October time period (last 6 months) the LEI has contracted by 3.3%, a smaller decline than the 4.5% drop it experienced during the previous six months (October 2022 to April 2023).

According to analysts at the Conference Board, among leading indicators, deteriorating consumer expectations about business conditions, the weaker ISM new orders index, falling equities and tighter credit conditions drove the most recent decline in the index. In that sense, they point out that after a pause in September, the LEI resumed signs of recession in the coming years.

They also say that the Conference Board expects high inflation, high interest rates and a contraction in consumer spending (due to the depletion of savings during the pandemic and mandatory student loan payments) to push the US economy into a very brief recession. In that sense, these analysts now expect the US economy to expand by only 0.8% in 2024.

Conference Board's advance indicator, below previous month and below expectations: 0.8% | The Corner

In commodities news, oil dips ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting, gold rises on a falling dollar, as everyone starts to bet on the Fed cutting US interest rates.


Brent slips toward $80/bbl ahead of OPEC+ meeting

By Florence Tan 

SINGAPORE, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Monday, with Brent falling toward $80 a barrel, as investors awaited the OPEC+ meeting later this week for an agreement to curb supplies into 2024.

Brent crude futures fell 37 cents, or 0.5%, to $80.21 a barrel by 0231 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $75.18 a barrel, down 36 cents, or 0.5%.

Both contracts rose slightly last week, their first weekly gain in five, underpinned by expectations that Saudi Arabia and Russia could roll over voluntary supply cuts into early 2024 and OPEC+ might discuss plans to reduce further.

Prices tumbled in the middle of last week after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, including Russia, known as OPEC+, postponed a ministerial meeting to Nov. 30 to iron out differences on production targets for African producers.

Since then, the group has moved closer to a compromise, four OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Friday.

ING analysts said market sentiment remains negative given the dispute within OPEC+ over production quotas, although they expect Saudi Arabia to roll over its additional voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day into next year.

More

Brent slips toward $80/bbl ahead of OPEC+ meeting | Reuters

Gold atop 6-month peak on softer US dollar, bets on Fed pause

By Harshit Verma 

Nov 27 (Reuters) - Gold prices climbed a six-month peak on Monday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and on bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve is done with its interest rate hike cycle, while the focus shifted to U.S. inflation data due later this week.

Spot gold was up 0.4% at $2,009.69 per ounce by 0404 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,009.50.

"What's moving gold at the moment is the lower U.S. dollar because of the recent soft data," said Kyle Rodda, a financial market analyst at Capital.com.

"Economic figures coming out of the U.S. this week, both on the growth and inflation front, will make or break a case for whether gold remains above $2,000."

Gold rose sharply earlier in the session, hitting as high as $2,017.82 an ounce.

However, "it might have been just characteristic of a sort of thinner Asian market,” Rodda added.

The dollar index (.DXY) edged down 0.1% against its rivals, not far from a more than 2-month low level touched last week, making gold less expensive for other currency holders.

Market focus now shifts to the revised U.S. third-quarter GDP figures due on Wednesday and the U.S. PCE price index - Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge - on Thursday.

Earlier this month, another inflation print showed weaker-than-expected consumer inflation, boosting hopes that the Fed could begin easing monetary conditions sooner than expected.

Traders widely expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged in December, while pricing in about a 60% chance of a rate cut in May next year, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Gold atop 6-month peak on softer US dollar, bets on Fed pause | Reuters

Finally, Black Friday USA.

 

Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion in U.S. online sales, up 7.5% from last year

PUBLISHED SAT, NOV 25 2023 2:55 PM EST

Black Friday e-commerce spending popped 7.5% from a year earlier, reaching a record $9.8 billion in the U.S., according to an Adobe Analytics report, a further indication that price-conscious consumers want to spend on the best deals and are hunting for those deals online.

“We’ve seen a very strategic consumer emerge over the past year where they’re really trying to take advantage of these marquee days, so that they can maximize on discounts,” said Vivek Pandya, a lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights.

Black Friday’s spending spike reflects a consumer who is more willing to spend than in 2022, when gas and food prices were painfully high.

Pandya noted that impulse purchases may have played a role in the Black Friday growth since $5.3 billion of the online sales came from mobile shopping. He noted that influencers and social media advertising have made it easier for consumers to get comfortable spending on their mobile devices.

Still, shoppers are price-sensitive, managing tighter budgets due to last year’s record inflation and interest rates. According to the Adobe survey, $79 million of the sales came from consumers who opted for the ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ flexible payment method to stretch their wallets, up 47% from last year.

The best-selling categories of Black Friday, the Adobe report found, were electronics like smartwatches and televisions, along with toys and gaming. Meanwhile, home-repair tools underperformed. Pandya said top sellers directly correlated to whichever products had the best discounts.

More

Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion in U.S. online sales, up 7.5% from last year (cnbc.com)

It's morally wrong to allow a sucker to keep his money.

W. C. Fields.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Financial contagion warning as HSBC is told to brace for ‘catastrophic’ £6.3billion hit

Bob Lyddon fears losses in Hong Kong and China could "blow a hole in the bank's equity".

By CIARAN MCGRATH  08:00, Sat, Nov 25, 2023

HSBC is facing a "hit" of more than £6.3billion as a result of unsecured commercial property loans into China, a UK-based tax consultant has warned.

Bob Lyddon branded the situation a ‘disaster’ - and warned of a "financial contagion" risk which could have a knock-on effect on Britain’s economy.

HSBC earlier this month confirmed it was setting aside £910million to cover expected loan losses, including £412million related to the commercial real estate sector in China - but Mr Lyddon said the actual picture was much worse.

The founder of Lyddon Consulting Services outlined his concerns in an analysis specifically written for Express.co.uk - and has urged the bank not to underestimate the seriousness of the situation.

He explained: "HSBC's stake in its Chinese bank - Hang Seng - looks overvalued by £3.3billion given the benchmark set by Standard Chartered.

Forty-two percent of HSBC's commercial property loans into China are either sub-standard or credit-impaired: £4.6billion out of £11billion. That's a disaster.

"The equivalent figures just for Hong Kong are 63 percent, and £3.8billion out of £6billion. That's a catastrophe."

Even worse, £3billion of this £3.8billion was not backed by real-estate security, Mr Lyddon stressed.

He explained: "That's an oxymoron: they should not be booked as real-estate lending if they are unsecured.

"Are these frauds, where a borrower has used the money meant to construct a building but the site remains vacant?

"Or, if there is a building and the borrower has defaulted on the loan, are the bank's mortgage papers defective so it cannot repossess? What is going on?"

He added:"What was the bank thinking of to enter unsecured lending into its accounts as real-estate lending? What were the auditors thinking of when they signed the accounts off?

More

Financial contagion warning as HSBC is told to brace for ‘catastrophic’ £6.3billion hit | City & Business | Finance | Express.co.uk

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Once bitten, twice shy perhaps?

More People Should Be Getting New COVID-19 Vaccines: CDC

Just 14 percent of adults in America of received one of the new shots, according to CDC data.

11/23/2023 Updated: 11/23/2023

The uptake of the new COVID-19 vaccines is lower than ideal, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says.

"COVID-19 vaccine uptake is lower than we’d like to see, and most people will be without the added protection that can reduce the severity of COVID-19," the CDC said in a Nov. 22 statement.

Just 14 percent of U.S. adults have received one of the new shots, which became available in the fall, according to CDC data.

Surveys show people aren't getting the vaccines because of concerns about side effects and the lack of clinical data.

The CDC recommended the vaccines for nearly all Americans after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized and approved them based largely on animal testing.

Human testing results have only been reported from 50 people.

The CDC has not responded to requests for evidence supporting its claims that the vaccines can protect against severe illness.

The agency said Wednesday that uptake was higher among white people than black and Hispanic people, and was also higher among those with insurance than the uninsured. The CDC said it was working "to remove barriers to vaccination" in part by working with community groups and "trusted messengers" like doctors "to build vaccine confidence and awareness."

The CDC said that the good news was elderly people, who are much more likely to be hospitalized with and die from COVID-19, had received the vaccine at higher rates, with about three in 10 having received one.

---- The CDC provided no data in its statement on vaccine effectiveness or safety.

A hyperlink to another part of the agency's website said that the updated formulations "save lives and prevent hospitalizations," but did not show any data in support of the claim.

The CDC's recommendations acknowledge that the advice was based on antibodies from a trial with Moderna's vaccine and animal testing with Pfizer's vaccine. While Novavax's vaccine is also available, only preclinical testing results have been made public.

Among the 50 people who received Moderna's shot in a clinical study, antibody responses were higher against newer variants compared to before receipt of the shot. Antibodies are thought to protect against COVID-19 but have not been formally established as a correlate of protection.

The CDC said its advice was based in part on prior versions of the vaccines.

"Based on three years of experience with these vaccines, we can expect the vaccines to increase protection and save lives," the agency said.

The initial vaccines were replaced because they were performing increasingly worse against infection and severe illness. The version that replaced those, available from the fall of 2022 until recently, did not protect for long against either, according to observational data.

That version was also cleared absent clinical trial data.

The CDC has faced criticism from some doctors and lawmakers for repeatedly making claims about vaccination without supporting data.

More

More People Should Be Getting New COVID-19 Vaccines: CDC | The Epoch Times

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

New NanoXplore Dry Process Could Revolutionize Graphene Manufacturing

Nov 24 2023

NanoXplore Inc., a prominent graphene company, achieved graphite exfoliation with the successful development of a new dry graphene manufacturing process.

This dry process revolves around cutting-edge exfoliation technology utilizing innovative media, allowing for high-yield exfoliation without introducing any impurities.

The successful advancement in graphene production stems from integrating NanoXplore's robust intellectual property portfolio and the strategic acquisition of patents from XG Sciences.

This amalgamation leverages eight distinct patents across Australia, Canada, the United States, Taiwan, China, and South Korea, combined with NanoXplore's expertise. This synergy results in a graphene product that combines superior performance with cost-effectiveness.

The research and development for this process commenced a decade ago and has seen a cumulative investment of nearly $40 million from both NanoXplore and XG Sciences to date.

NanoXplore’s new dry graphene production process has many advantages compared to the traditional liquid exfoliation methods. The dry production process provides a nearly 50% reduction against the liquid exfoliation process concerning capital expenditures.

A net 8000 metric tons capacity needs $20 M in capital expenditures, with a quarter of the current square footage required in different liquid exfoliation processes based on the company’s current estimation.

NanoXplore guarantees a robust supply chain for the main equipment with protected key suppliers. Procurement of equipment is facilitated through the use of readily available, off-the-shelf solutions, leading to an estimated lead time of 8-12 months. The organization has a proposal for purchasing the equipment during the 2024 calendar year.

NanoXplore's innovative dry graphene manufacturing process has the potential to place the Corporation on par with traditional carbon additives like carbon black in terms of cost. This cost reduction is primarily achieved by utilizing low-grade waste graphite obtained from the graphite anode production process as the feedstock.

Moreover, the process is highly scalable and operates continuously, enhancing production efficiency. The superior processability and sustained performance of graphene produced through this dry method present investors with a more compelling proposition.

This advancement is expected to broaden the Corporation's total market scope and expedite the commercial integration of graphene.

The secured granted patents for this proprietary technology elevate key physical properties in polymers by a substantial 20% compared to current products, specifically targeting applications demanding over 20 years of longevity.

Its potential spans across industries, particularly in batteries and lightweight composites, making it highly attractive for leading-edge sectors. Moreover, this innovative manufacturing process broadens the scope of applications, extending to various sectors such as plastic pipes, geosynthetics, recycled plastics, concrete, drilling fluids, insulation foams, and beyond.

The environmental footprint associated with traditional graphite exfoliation methods is considerably reduced by the novel dry manufacturing process, thus marking a paradigm shift. This process addresses eco-friendly concerns related to water usage by eradicating expensive washing and drying steps that have an environmental impact.

More

New Dry Process Could Revolutionize Graphene Manufacturing (azonano.com)

A rich man is nothing but a poor man with money.

W. C. Fields. 

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