Baltic
Dry Index. 2102 +247 Brent Crude 79.97
Spot Gold 2011 US 2 Year Yield 4.92 +0.03
You can fool some of the people some of the
time -- and that's enough to make a decent living.
Fed Chairman
Powell W. C. Fields
This morning, more stock casino wobble in Asia, with European stock casinos heading for a lower opening.
In America, the Leading Economic Index is
signalling recession ahead. I think it’s actually signalling that the US economy
has already entered recession, but that won’t be officially declared for
months.
Asian markets
reverse early gains as China property stocks plunge; Japan service inflation
heats up
UPDATED SUN, NOV 26 2023 10:37 PM
EST
Asia-Pacific
markets started the week largely lower, with Chinese markets dragged by
property stocks and Japan’s service inflation surging to a 45-month high.
Data showed Japan’s service PPI
rose 2.3% in October to its highest level since January 2020 and more than the
prior month’s reading of 2%.
On Monday, China’s industrial
profits continued to shrink in November, but at its slowest pace in almost a
year, according to data released by the government.
The world’s second largest
economy will release its official factory activity figures for November on
Thursday, while the Caixin survey for the same metric will be out on Friday.
Australia will release its
October inflation figures on Wednesday, which will offer clues to its central
bank’s policy moves. India’s gross domestic product numbers for the three
months ended September will be released late Thursday.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
1.04%, while mainland Chinese markets were also in negative territory, with the
CSI 300 index tumbling 1.03%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 dropped
0.44%, reversing gains earlier in the day.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 also
slipped 0.43%, but the index is close to breaching its 33-year high of
33,753.33, hit on July 3. The Topix, meanwhile, shed 0.39%
South Korea’s Kospi was the only
major benchmark in positive territory, up 0.1%, but the small-cap Kosdaq was
down 0.36%.
On Friday in the U.S., the three major indexes
were mixed in a shortened trading session.
The 30-stock Dow rose
0.33% while the S&P
500 ticked higher by 0.06%. However, the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite fell
0.11%.
Major retail shares rose slightly
as Black Friday kicked off the holiday shopping season. Walmart and Target
rose 0.9% and 0.74%, respectively, while Amazon ticked
higher by 0.02%.
Asia
stock markets today: Live updates, China property stocks, Japan PPI surges
(cnbc.com)
European
markets set to start the week on a somber note
UPDATED MON, NOV 27 2023 12:29 AM EST
European
markets are heading for a negative start to the new trading week, days after
the region’s Stoxx 600 index reached its highest level since Sept. 20.
Asia-Pacific
markets started the week largely lower, with Chinese markets
dragged by property stocks and Japan’s service inflation surging to a 45-month
high.
U.S.
stock futures dipped on Sunday evening as Wall Street looks to
build on four straight positive weeks for the equity market. Wall Street is
coming off the fourth-straight winning week for all three major averages, as
stocks have rallied since the 10-year Treasury yield retreated from the 5% mark
it briefly topped in late October.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Stock
futures fall slightly on Sunday evening with Wall Street riding a four-week
winning streak
UPDATED SUN, NOV 26 2023 7:03 PM EST
Stock futures dipped on Sunday evening as Wall
Street looks to build on four straight positive weeks for the equity market.
Futures for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average ticked down 38 points, or 0.1%. Futures for the S&P 500
and Nasdaq 100 slipped about 0.2% each.
Wall Street is coming off the
fourth-straight winning week for all three major averages, as stocks have
rallied since the 10-year Treasury yield retreated from the 5% mark it briefly
topped in late October.
The rally has come despite
warnings from some U.S. retailers that
consumer spending is weakening.
Traders will be looking for updates about the start of the holiday shopping
season after Black Friday.
Weak spending data could suggest
that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are finally starting to weigh on the
broader economy.
“The New York Fed’s latest
household survey shows that a record-high share of consumers are saying that it
is much harder to obtain credit ... This is what the textbook would have
predicted. When the Fed raises interest rates it becomes more difficult for
consumers to borrow,” Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist,
said in a note to clients on Sunday.
The week ahead is also a busy one
for economic indicators and Fed commentary. On Monday, new home sales and the
latest Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey are due out. Readings for consumer
confidence and inflation follow later in the week.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Conference
Board’s Advance Indicator, Below Previous Month And Below Expectations: 0.8%
21ST NOVEMBER 2023
The Conference Board’s index of US leading economic indicators, the
Leading Economic Index (LEI), declined 0.8% in October compared to September,
after falling 0.7% in September. The FactSet consensus of analysts expected a
decline of 0.6%. In the April to October time period (last 6 months) the LEI
has contracted by 3.3%, a smaller decline than the 4.5% drop it experienced
during the previous six months (October 2022 to April 2023).
According to analysts at the Conference Board, among leading indicators,
deteriorating consumer expectations about business conditions, the weaker ISM
new orders index, falling equities and tighter credit conditions drove the most
recent decline in the index. In that sense, they point out that after a pause
in September, the LEI resumed signs of recession in the coming years.
They also say that the Conference Board expects high inflation, high
interest rates and a contraction in consumer spending (due to the depletion of
savings during the pandemic and mandatory student loan payments) to push the US
economy into a very brief recession. In that sense, these analysts now expect
the US economy to expand by only 0.8% in 2024.
Conference
Board's advance indicator, below previous month and below expectations: 0.8% |
The Corner
In commodities news, oil dips ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting, gold rises on a falling dollar, as everyone starts to bet on the Fed cutting US interest rates.
Brent slips toward
$80/bbl ahead of OPEC+ meeting
By Florence Tan November 27, 2023 2:57 AM GMT
SINGAPORE, Nov 27
(Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Monday, with Brent falling toward $80 a
barrel, as investors awaited the OPEC+ meeting later this week for an agreement
to curb supplies into 2024.
Brent crude
futures fell 37 cents, or 0.5%, to $80.21 a barrel by 0231 GMT, while U.S. West
Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $75.18 a barrel, down 36 cents, or
0.5%.
Both contracts
rose slightly last week, their first weekly gain in five, underpinned by
expectations that Saudi Arabia and Russia could roll over voluntary supply cuts
into early 2024 and OPEC+ might discuss plans to reduce further.
Prices tumbled in
the middle of last week after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries and their allies, including Russia, known as OPEC+, postponed a
ministerial meeting to Nov. 30 to iron out differences on production targets
for African producers.
Since
then, the group has moved closer to
a compromise, four OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Friday.
ING analysts
said market sentiment remains negative given the dispute within OPEC+ over
production quotas, although they expect Saudi Arabia to roll over its
additional voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day into next year.
More
Brent
slips toward $80/bbl ahead of OPEC+ meeting | Reuters
Gold atop 6-month
peak on softer US dollar, bets on Fed pause
By Harshit Verma November 27, 2023 4:54 AM GMT
Nov 27 (Reuters)
- Gold prices climbed a six-month peak on Monday, supported by a weaker U.S.
dollar and on bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve is done with its interest rate
hike cycle, while the focus shifted to U.S. inflation data due later this week.
Spot gold was up
0.4% at $2,009.69 per ounce by 0404 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to
$2,009.50.
"What's
moving gold at the moment is the lower U.S. dollar because of the recent soft
data," said Kyle Rodda, a financial market analyst at Capital.com.
"Economic
figures coming out of the U.S. this week, both on the growth and inflation
front, will make or break a case for whether gold remains above $2,000."
Gold rose
sharply earlier in the session, hitting as high as $2,017.82 an ounce.
However,
"it might have been just characteristic of a sort of thinner Asian
market,” Rodda added.
The
dollar index (.DXY) edged
down 0.1% against its rivals, not far from a more than 2-month low level
touched last week, making gold less expensive for other currency holders.
Market focus now
shifts to the revised U.S. third-quarter GDP figures due on Wednesday and the
U.S. PCE price index - Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge - on
Thursday.
Earlier
this month, another inflation print showed weaker-than-expected consumer inflation, boosting hopes
that the Fed could begin easing monetary conditions sooner than expected.
Traders
widely expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged in December, while pricing in
about a 60% chance of a rate cut in May next year, according
to CME's FedWatch Tool.
Gold
atop 6-month peak on softer US dollar, bets on Fed pause | Reuters
Finally, Black Friday USA.
Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8
billion in U.S. online sales, up 7.5% from last year
PUBLISHED SAT, NOV 25 2023 2:55 PM EST
Black Friday e-commerce
spending popped 7.5% from a year earlier, reaching a record $9.8 billion in the
U.S., according to an Adobe Analytics report, a further indication that
price-conscious consumers want to spend on the best deals and are hunting for
those deals online.
“We’ve seen a very strategic consumer emerge over
the past year where they’re really trying to take advantage of these marquee
days, so that they can maximize on discounts,” said Vivek Pandya, a lead
analyst at Adobe Digital Insights.
Black Friday’s spending spike reflects a consumer
who is more willing to spend than in 2022, when gas and
food prices were painfully high.
Pandya noted that
impulse purchases may have played a role in the Black Friday growth since $5.3
billion of the online sales came from mobile shopping. He noted that
influencers and social media advertising have made it easier for consumers to
get comfortable spending on their mobile devices.
Still, shoppers are
price-sensitive, managing tighter budgets due to last year’s record inflation
and interest rates. According to the Adobe survey, $79 million of the sales
came from consumers who opted for the ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ flexible payment
method to stretch their wallets, up 47% from last year.
The best-selling
categories of Black Friday, the Adobe report found, were electronics like
smartwatches and televisions, along with toys and gaming. Meanwhile,
home-repair tools underperformed. Pandya said top sellers directly correlated
to whichever products had the best discounts.
More
It's morally wrong to allow a sucker to keep his money.
W. C. Fields.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Financial contagion
warning as HSBC is told to brace for ‘catastrophic’ £6.3billion hit
Bob
Lyddon fears losses in Hong Kong and China could "blow a hole in the
bank's equity".
By CIARAN MCGRATH 08:00, Sat, Nov 25, 2023
HSBC is facing
a "hit" of more than £6.3billion as a result of unsecured commercial
property loans into China, a UK-based tax consultant has warned.
Bob Lyddon branded the situation
a ‘disaster’ - and warned of a "financial contagion" risk which could
have a knock-on effect on Britain’s economy.
HSBC earlier
this month confirmed it was setting aside £910million to cover expected loan
losses, including £412million related to the commercial real estate sector
in China - but Mr Lyddon said the actual picture was much
worse.
The founder of Lyddon
Consulting Services outlined his concerns in an analysis specifically written
for Express.co.uk - and has urged the bank not to underestimate the seriousness
of the situation.
He explained: "HSBC's
stake in its Chinese bank - Hang Seng - looks overvalued by £3.3billion given
the benchmark set by Standard Chartered.
Forty-two percent of HSBC's commercial property
loans into China are either sub-standard or credit-impaired: £4.6billion out of
£11billion. That's a disaster.
"The equivalent figures just for Hong Kong are
63 percent, and £3.8billion out of £6billion. That's a catastrophe."
Even worse, £3billion of this £3.8billion was not
backed by real-estate security, Mr Lyddon stressed.
He explained: "That's an oxymoron: they should
not be booked as real-estate lending if they are unsecured.
"Are these frauds, where
a borrower has used the money meant to construct a building but the site
remains vacant?
"Or, if
there is a building and the borrower has defaulted on the loan, are the
bank's mortgage papers defective so it cannot repossess? What is
going on?"
He added:"What was the
bank thinking of to enter unsecured lending into its accounts as real-estate
lending? What were the auditors thinking of when they signed the accounts off?
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Once
bitten, twice shy perhaps?
More People Should
Be Getting New COVID-19 Vaccines: CDC
Just
14 percent of adults in America of received one of the new shots, according to
CDC data.
11/23/2023 Updated: 11/23/2023
The uptake of the
new COVID-19 vaccines is lower than ideal, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention (CDC) says.
"COVID-19
vaccine uptake is lower than we’d like to see, and most people will be without
the added protection that can reduce the severity of COVID-19," the CDC
said in a Nov. 22 statement.
Just 14 percent
of U.S. adults have received one of the new shots, which became available in
the fall, according to CDC data.
Surveys show
people aren't getting the vaccines because of concerns about side effects and
the lack of clinical data.
The CDC
recommended the vaccines for nearly all Americans after the U.S. Food and Drug
Administration authorized and approved them based largely on animal testing.
Human testing
results have only been reported from 50 people.
The CDC has
not responded to requests for evidence supporting its claims that the vaccines
can protect against severe illness.
The agency said Wednesday that uptake
was higher among white people than black and Hispanic people, and was also
higher among those with insurance than the uninsured. The CDC said it was
working "to remove barriers to vaccination" in part by working with
community groups and "trusted messengers" like doctors "to build
vaccine confidence and awareness."
The CDC said
that the good news was elderly people, who are much more likely to be
hospitalized with and die from COVID-19, had received the vaccine at higher
rates, with about three in 10 having received one.
---- The CDC
provided no data in its statement on vaccine effectiveness or safety.
A hyperlink to another part of the agency's
website said that the updated formulations
"save lives and prevent hospitalizations," but did not show any data
in support of the claim.
The CDC's recommendations acknowledge that the
advice was based on antibodies from a trial with Moderna's vaccine and animal
testing with Pfizer's vaccine. While Novavax's vaccine is also available, only
preclinical testing results have been made public.
Among the 50
people who received Moderna's shot in a clinical study, antibody responses were
higher against newer variants compared to before receipt of the shot.
Antibodies are thought to protect against COVID-19 but have not been formally
established as a correlate of protection.
The CDC said
its advice was based in part on prior versions of the vaccines.
"Based on
three years of experience with these vaccines, we can expect the vaccines to
increase protection and save lives," the agency said.
The initial vaccines were replaced because
they were performing increasingly worse against infection and severe illness.
The version that replaced those, available from the fall of 2022 until
recently, did not protect for long against either, according to
observational data.
That version
was also cleared absent clinical trial data.
The CDC has faced
criticism from some doctors and lawmakers for repeatedly making claims about
vaccination without supporting data.
More
More People Should Be Getting New COVID-19 Vaccines: CDC | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
New NanoXplore Dry Process Could Revolutionize
Graphene Manufacturing
Nov 24 2023
NanoXplore Inc.,
a prominent graphene company, achieved graphite exfoliation with the successful
development of a new dry graphene manufacturing process.
This dry
process revolves around cutting-edge exfoliation technology utilizing
innovative media, allowing for high-yield exfoliation without introducing any
impurities.
The successful
advancement in graphene production stems from integrating NanoXplore's robust
intellectual property portfolio and the strategic acquisition of patents from
XG Sciences.
This
amalgamation leverages eight distinct patents across Australia, Canada, the
United States, Taiwan, China, and South Korea, combined with NanoXplore's
expertise. This synergy results in a graphene product that combines superior
performance with cost-effectiveness.
The research
and development for this process commenced a decade ago and has seen a
cumulative investment of nearly $40 million from both NanoXplore and XG
Sciences to date.
NanoXplore’s
new dry graphene production process has many advantages compared to the
traditional liquid exfoliation methods. The dry production process provides a
nearly 50% reduction against the liquid exfoliation process concerning capital
expenditures.
A net 8000
metric tons capacity needs $20 M in capital expenditures, with a quarter of the
current square footage required in different liquid exfoliation processes based
on the company’s current estimation.
NanoXplore
guarantees a robust supply chain for the main equipment with protected key
suppliers. Procurement of equipment is facilitated through the use of readily
available, off-the-shelf solutions, leading to an estimated lead time of 8-12
months. The organization has a proposal for purchasing the equipment during the
2024 calendar year.
NanoXplore's
innovative dry graphene manufacturing process has the potential to place the
Corporation on par with traditional carbon additives like carbon black in terms
of cost. This cost reduction is primarily achieved by utilizing low-grade waste
graphite obtained from the graphite anode production process as the feedstock.
Moreover, the
process is highly scalable and operates continuously, enhancing production
efficiency. The superior processability and sustained performance of graphene
produced through this dry method present investors with a more compelling
proposition.
This
advancement is expected to broaden the Corporation's total market scope and
expedite the commercial integration of graphene.
The secured
granted patents for this proprietary technology elevate key physical properties
in polymers by a substantial 20% compared to current products, specifically
targeting applications demanding over 20 years of longevity.
Its potential
spans across industries, particularly in batteries and lightweight composites,
making it highly attractive for leading-edge sectors. Moreover, this innovative
manufacturing process broadens the scope of applications, extending to various
sectors such as plastic pipes, geosynthetics, recycled plastics, concrete,
drilling fluids, insulation foams, and beyond.
The
environmental footprint associated with traditional graphite exfoliation
methods is considerably reduced by the novel dry manufacturing process, thus
marking a paradigm shift. This process addresses eco-friendly concerns related
to water usage by eradicating expensive washing and drying steps that have an
environmental impact.
More
New Dry Process Could Revolutionize Graphene
Manufacturing (azonano.com)
A rich man is nothing but a poor man with money.
W. C. Fields.
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