Baltic Dry Index. 1643 +45 Brent Crude 81.43
Spot Gold 1940 U S 2
Year Yield 5.04 +0.01
In the ever more erratic stock casinos, an Europe and Asian split from a
whipsawed US stock casinos has developed. Which, if any, stock casinos will be correct?
I reiterate yesterday’s LIR update, where I think the USA, UK and EU
have entered, or at best are just entering a new recession. See yesterday’s update
for more details.
Of course, if the US Federal government really does get shut down next
Friday as it runs out of funding, which is hopefully not going to happen, bad
things start to happen fast in the US economy as we enter the annual Christmas
retail shopping season. The timing could hardly be any worse.
This war Remembrance Day weekend in the UK is expected to see a record
crowd turnout in London to demand an end to the war on the Gaza Ghetto. Other
demonstrations are likely across Europe and much of the rest of the world.
Nothing is likely to happen until the “big guy” in the District of
Crooks starts showing some leadership. While nothing happens to end the Gaza
war, the world is increasingly turning on the west.
Unfortunately, another difficult, erratic week lies ahead.
European markets close down 1% after Fed Chair Powell
comments; Diageo slides 12%
UPDATED FRI, NOV 10 2023 11:36 AM EST
LONDON — European markets
pulled back on Friday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is “not
confident” it has done enough to rein in inflation.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed
1% lower. Food and beverage stocks led losses, ending the session down 3.1%, as
all sectors closed in the red except oil and gas, which added 0.4%.
Powell said Thursday that he and
fellow policymakers were encouraged by the recent slowdown in inflation rates,
but were not yet confident they had achieved a monetary policy stance that is
“sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time.”
The Fed last week held rates
unchanged, along with the Bank
of England and the European Central Bank,
with markets now turning
their attention to when rate cuts will begin next year — a
position central bankers have tentatively pushed back against.
Shares
in Asia-Pacific fell on Friday after the S&P 500 in
the U.S. snapped an eight-day winning streak on the back of Powell’s comments
and spiking Treasury yields. On
Wall Street, stocks rose as traders kept an eye on Treasury yields.
European
markets open to close, earnings, data and news (cnbc.com)
Dow leaps
nearly 400 points Friday, major averages notch a second week of gains: Live
updates
UPDATED FRI, NOV 10 2023 4:42 PM EST
Stocks rallied Friday, recovering the ground
lost in the previous session, as Treasury yields stabilized.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced
391.16 points, or 1.15% to close at 34,283.10. The S&P 500 climbed
1.56% to finish the session at 4,415.24. The Nasdaq Composite added
2.05% to 13,798.11, notching its best day since May.
All 11 sectors of the S&P 500
were positive Friday, but tech outperformed, rising 2.6%. Microsoft leapt to
all-time highs during the session and ended the day higher by 2.5%. Apple,
Meta, Tesla and Netflix jumped more than 2% each, while Alphabet gained 1.8%.
Friday’s surge was also enough to
lift the three major averages for a second consecutive week of gains. The
S&P 500 advanced 1.3%, while the Dow added about 0.7%. The Nasdaq was the
outperformer, rising roughly 2.4% on the week.
Stocks staged a rebound as the
benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hovered around the flatline.
It was a marked reversal from
Thursday’s action in which the rate on the 10-year jumped more than 10 basis
points. The spike in yields followed a dismal Treasury Department bond auction
and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that suggested more
intervention may be needed to quell inflation.
Thursday’s ensuing sell-off also
snapped the longest winning streaks for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq
Composite in two years.
Recent volatility
notwithstanding, a resilient economy has helped equities even as investors
remain uncertain about the Fed’s timeline around rate policy, according to UBS.
“A continued high level of
unfilled job openings and solid private sector balance sheets support our view
for a ‘softish’ economic landing,” UBS’ David Lefkowitz wrote in in a Friday
note. “Still, economic growth will likely slow in the months ahead and further
improvements in inflation will probably be more incremental.”
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Moody’s cuts
U.S. outlook to negative, citing deficits and political polarization
Moody’s Investors Service on Friday lowered its
ratings outlook on the United States’ government to negative from stable,
pointing to rising risks to the nation’s fiscal strength.
The ratings agency has affirmed the long-term
issuer and senior unsecured ratings of the U.S. at Aaa.
“In the context of higher interest rates, without
effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase
revenues,” the agency said. “Moody’s expects that the US’ fiscal deficits will
remain very large, significantly weakening debt affordability.”
Brinkmanship in Washington has also been a
contributing factor, Moody’s said.
“Continued political polarization within US
Congress raises the risk that successive governments will not be able to reach
consensus on a fiscal plan to slow the decline in debt affordability,” the
ratings agency said.
As far as keeping the nation’s ratings at Aaa,
Moody’s said that it expects the U.S. to “retain its exceptional economic
strength.” “Further positive growth surprises over the medium term could at
least slow the deterioration in debt affordability,” the agency said.
“While the statement by Moody’s maintains the
United States’ Aaa rating, we disagree with the shift to a negative outlook,”
said Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo in a statement.
---- Moody’s move to cut its outlook arrives as Congress faces
the looming threat of a government shutdown once more. For now, the government
is funded through Nov. 17, but lawmakers in Washington remain at loggerheads
over a bill ahead of the deadline.
Newly elected House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.)
has indicated that he will release a Republican government funding plan on
Saturday, a move that would permit members time to read it before an expected
Tuesday vote on the measure.
But his plan to fund certain parts of the
government through Dec. 7, and other parts through Jan. 19, known as a laddered
continuing resolution, or CR, is dead on arrival in the White House and in the
Democratic-controlled Senate.
---- Back in August, Fitch cut the U.S.
long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to AA+ from AAA, citing
“expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years,” as well as an
erosion of governance and a growing debt burden.
Feuding in Washington was also an
issue. “The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions
have eroded confidence in fiscal management,” Fitch said at the time.
Moody's
cuts U.S. outlook to negative, citing deficits and political polarization
(cnbc.com)
A child killed on average every 10 minutes in Gaza, says WHO
chief
By Michelle Nichols November 11, 20234:36 AM GMT
UNITED NATIONS, Nov 10
(Reuters) - A child is killed on average every 10 minutes in the Gaza Strip,
World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told the
United Nations Security Council on Friday, warning: "Nowhere and no one is
safe."
He said that half of Gaza's
36 hospitals and two-thirds of its primary healthcare centers were not
functioning and those that were operating were way beyond their capacities,
describing the healthcare system as being "on its knees."
"Hospital corridors crammed with
the injured, the sick, the dying. Morgues overflowing. Surgery without
anesthesia. Tens of thousands of displaced people sheltering at
hospitals," Tedros told the 15-member council.
Israel has vowed to
wipe out Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip, after an Oct. 7 attack in southern
Israel in which it says the militants killed around 1,200 people and took more
than 240 hostages. Israel has struck Gaza -
an enclave of 2.3 million people - from the air, imposed a siege and launched a
ground invasion.
"On average, a child
is killed every 10 minutes in Gaza," Tedros said.
Since Oct. 7, the WHO has
verified more than 250 attacks on healthcare in Gaza and the West Bank, while
there had been 25 attacks on healthcare in Israel, Tedros said. Israel says
Hamas hides weapons in tunnels under hospitals, charges Hamas denies.
Israel's U.N. Ambassador
Gilad Erdan told the Security Council that Israel had created a taskforce to
establish hospitals in southern Gaza. On Oct. 12, Israel ordered some 1.1
million people in Gaza to move south ahead of its ground invasion.
More
A
child killed on average every 10 minutes in Gaza, says WHO chief | Reuters
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
UK economy flatlines as finance minister decries
inflation drag
PUBLISHED FRI, NOV 10 2023 2:39
AM EST
The U.K. economy flatlined in the third quarter,
initial figures showed Friday.
Gross domestic product showed no quarterly growth
in the three months to the end of September, following an increase of 0.2% the previous
quarter. In annual terms, Britain’s third-quarter GDP was 0.6% higher than in
the same period in 2022.
Services sector output dropped 0.1% on the quarter,
but the decline was offset by a 0.1% increase in construction performance,
while the production sector flatlined.
U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said
high inflation remains the “single greatest barrier to economic growth” in the
country, with the consumer price index remaining at 6.7% year-on-year in September.
“The best way to sustainably grow our economy
right now is stick to our plan and knock inflation on its head,” Hunt said.
“The Autumn Statement will focus on how we get the
economy growing healthily again by unlocking investment, getting people back
into work and reforming our public services so we can deliver the growth our
country needs.”
Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter
Investors, said the Friday figures confirmed an incoming slowdown that has been
increasingly signaled by leading indicators in recent months, with consumer
spending and business activity showing cracks that have also softened labor
demand.
“September’s data did positively surprise thanks
to the U.K.’s strong services sector, but was not enough to offset July’s
negative print and produce any growth in Q3 relative to the previous quarter.
While somehow avoiding a recession this year, today’s no growth reading means
the UK economy is flatlining with only 0.2% economic growth in the last six
months.” she said.
“Unfortunately, for many the economic pain has
only been delayed. As the Bank of England stated earlier this month that more
than half of the impact of higher interest rates on the level of GDP is still
to come through, the U.K. economy faces growing headwinds as we approach 2024.”
UK economy flatlines as finance minister decries
inflation drag (cnbc.com)
Brace for a sharp inflation drop that still won't be
enough to return the economy to normal, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says
November
9, 2023
The economy will soon
see a sharp drop in inflation – but that still won't be enough to return
it to the central bank's target, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian.
The Allianz chief economic
advisor pointed to rosier economic outlooks on Wall Street, with Goldman Sachs among big firms recently predicting
sharp disinflation and limited recession odds in 2024.
The risk of a recession is smaller than it was a year ago, El-Erian said previously. Inflation is also likely to
cool even further – but not as much as markets or the Federal Reserve may be
hoping, he warned.
"I do think we're going
to get more disinflation at the headline level, and it's going to be quite
sharp disinflation. I would disagree with them on the notion that core is
headed to 2%. I suspect core for the next couple of years is going to be more
around 3% ... We have some real things on the supply side that are going to
play out over a number of years," El-Erian said in an interview with
Bloomberg on Thursday.
He pointed to various shifts
that could keep prices elevated over the long-run, such as cracks forming in the global economy, lingering supply-chain disruptions from
the pandemic, and companies transitioning to green energy.
"All of that is
inflationary. That's not going to go away anytime soon," El-Erian.
Prices have cooled
significantly from highs last summer, but remain well-above the Fed's long-run
targets. Headline inflation accelerated 3.7% year-per-year in September,
slightly above the expected 3.6% clip. Meanwhile, core inflation accelerated
4.1% year-per-year, in-line with economists' forecasts.
All that points to a
still-hot economy, despite the Fed raising interest rates aggressively since
March 2022. Central bankers still have "more work" to do to lower
inflation, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said this week, suggesting
more rate hikes could be in order, and Fed Chair Powell said in remarks on
Thursday that the Fed isn't confident it has done enough to declare mission
accomplished.
Investors now have their eye on the upcoming
October Consumer Price Index report, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics is
set to roll out next Tuesday. Headline inflation is expected to accelerate
3.28% year-per-year, while core inflation is expected to remain mostly level at
4.16%, according to the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast.
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Recent Study: Certain COVID-19 Vaccines Linked to Elevated Risk of Guillain-Barré Syndrome
As
the rate of vaccination increases so has the incidence of GBS—particularly
after viral vector-based vaccines such as AstraZeneca.
11/9/2023 Updated: 11/9/2023
As the
vaccination rate continues to rise, an increasing number of side effects are
being reported. Research indicates that COVID-19 viral
vector-based vaccines increase the risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) by
three to four times compared to mRNA-based vaccines.
The Link Between Vaccines and Guillain-Barré Syndrome Risk
Increasing evidence suggests an association
between COVID-19 vaccines and Guillain-Barré Syndrome. One study revealed an increase in GBS cases
within 42 days of receiving the first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine. The
researchers suggest a potential link between the AstraZeneca vaccine and the
increased risk of GBS.
In March, a prospective surveillance study published
in Scientific Reports indicated that out of 38,828,691 doses of COVID-19
vaccine administered in Gyeonggi Province, South Korea, between February 2021
and March 2022, 105,409 adverse events were reported, including 55 cases of
GBS.
After
assessing the risk factors for GBS following COVID-19 vaccination, it was found
that viral vector-based vaccines were linked to a three-to-fourfold higher risk
of GBS compared to mRNA-based vaccines.
In terms of age and gender, the incidence of GBS
was higher in individuals aged 60 and older compared to younger age groups, and
it was more common in men than women.
Based on a vaccine mechanism evaluation, the
incidence rate of GBS for viral vector-based vaccines was 4.49 cases per
million doses, higher than mRNA-based vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) which had
an incidence rate of 0.80 cases per million doses.
The researchers are urging health care providers to closely monitor
individuals following COVID-19 vaccination, especially men who received their
first dose of viral vector-based vaccines.
---- According to National Health Service in the UK,
Guillain-Barré Syndrome is a rare and severe neurological disorder caused by an
immune system dysfunction, with an extremely low incidence rate.
Under normal
circumstances, the immune system attacks any pathogens that make their way into
the body. When the immune system malfunctions, it can mistakenly attack and
damage the nerves.
The symptoms
of GBS typically begin in the hands and feet before spreading to the arms and
legs. Common symptoms include numbness, pins and needles, muscle weakness,
pain, as well as balance and coordination problems. These symptoms may worsen
over the next few days or weeks and then gradually improve. In severe cases,
GBS can lead to difficulties in walking, breathing, or swallowing.
Occasionally, it can be life-threatening, and some individuals may experience
long-term complications. If you experience any symptoms of GBS, it is crucial
to seek immediate medical attention.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Future
GM EV motors could swap rare earth with "Clean Earth" magnets
C.C. Weiss November 08, 2023
While
electric vehicles certainly offer a host of eco-friendly advantages, they're
not without some asterisks, one being the rare earth materials (and harmful
mining thereof) used to make the magnets intrinsic to most automotive-grade
motors. New magnet-free motor
designs are being pursued as one alternative, but
General Motors is looking to Minneapolis startup Niron Magnetics to help it
chart a different course. Niron's "Clean Earth" magnets are claimed
to be the only rare-earth-free permanent magnets capable of automotive-grade
power, relying on more readily available and sustainable iron nitride.
Niron is
having itself a month. Two weeks ago, it landed a spot on TIME Magazine's list
of "Best Inventions of 2023," and now it's moving forward with a
strategic partnership with one of the world's largest automakers. GM announced
the partnership on Wednesday, stressing that Niron's magnet technology could be
a key part of its future EV portfolio.
GM isn't
merely an automaker desiring a better breed of motor magnet tech for its
growing global electric vehicle lineup; it's recognized as one of two original
inventors of the neodymium permanent magnet that underpins many automotive
motors today. The other inventor, Japan company Sumitomo, developed the same
type of magnet with a different process, completely independently of GM at the
same time in the early 1980s.
----
Originally developed at the University of Minnesota, Niron's iron nitride
magnet technology doesn't require rare earth materials and is being positioned
as a cleaner, more affordable alternative. The raw iron and nitrogen are common
elements that can be sourced locally, in North America and other areas of the
world, without the environmental damage or supply chain issues that plague rare
earths.
Niron
Magnetics was founded in 2014 to commercialize iron nitride magnetic
technology. It claims its Clean Earth Magnet to be the first non-rare-earth
magnet capable of automotive-grade power. It is working to perfect the
manufacturing processes needed to scale up production.
Niron
further claims that iron nitride has a stronger magnetic field than rare earth
magnetic material, paving the way toward motors that are lighter, smaller and
more efficient than current neodymium magnet motors. If true, this would
separate iron nitride magnets from non-rare-earth ferrite magnets that have
weaker magnetic fields and require larger, heavier motor designs.
More
Future GM EV motors could swap rare earth with
"Clean Earth" magnets (newatlas.com)
This weekend’s music
diversion. The Bohemian, Johan
Andrea Kauchlitz Colizzi, Concerto in B-flat Major . Approx. 9
minutes.
Concerto
in B-flat Major
Concerto in B-flat Major - YouTube
This weekend’s chess
update. Approx. 10 minutes.
Youngest
Grandmaster vs Legend
Youngest Grandmaster vs Legend - YouTube
No
weekend the math’s update this week. This week the global world of rice.
Admittedly from a US subsidy plea perspective. Approx. 10 minutes.
Why
Rice Markets Are In Crisis Mode
Why Rice Markets Are In Crisis Mode - YouTube
Political
language... is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and
to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.
George Orwell.
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