Stocks, All News Is Good News, Except For OpenAI.

Baltic Dry Index. 1817 -03            Brent Crude  81.76

Spot Gold 1991                 US 2 Year Yield 4.89 +0.01

Are you better off today than you were four years ago?

Ronald Reagan. 1980.

Not much need for any input from me this morning.

Murder and wanton killing continues unchecked in Gaza and Ukraine, but especially Gaza. Only a handful of Europe’s minor politicians have called for its end. NATO’s major politicians, led by Joe Biden have never looked more ineffective nor conflicted.

Officially, inflation is falling practically everywhere, except where it matters to most consumers and voters.  In next years US presidential election it looks more and more likely to be Trump 2.0 if the Democratic candidate is President Biden. Argentina or Bust?

In the stock casinos, who cares?

European markets head for mixed open as sentiment falters

UPDATED TUE, NOV 21 2023 12:32 AM EST

European markets are heading for a flat to higher open Tuesday as sentiment wavers. Regional markets had a cautious start to the week on Monday as the slew of third-quarter earnings slowed.

Overnight, Asia-Pacific markets largely rose, led by gains in tech and Chinese property stocks. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures flickered near the flat line on Monday evening.

On Tuesday, investors will keep an eye out for the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 31 to Nov. 1 policy meeting. Traders are hoping to glean some insight into policymakers’ rate decision and learn what it might take for them to change tack.

Fed funds futures pricing data suggests a nearly 100% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will hold steady on rates at its upcoming December meeting.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)

Asia markets largely rise as tech and China property stocks lead gains

UPDATED TUE, NOV 21 2023 1:14 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets largely rose on Tuesday, led by gains in tech and Chinese property stocks.

Chinese property shares surged after Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that Chinese regulators are drafting a list of 50 developers eligible for a range of financing, including China Vanke and Longfor Group Holdings.

Asian chip names also climbed as Microsoft shares gained 2%, reaching a new 52-week high, after CEO Satya Nadella said former OpenAI chief Sam Altman will join the tech giant to lead a new AI research team.

Chipmaker Nvidia also added 2.3%, closing at an all-time high for the stock ahead of its earnings report Tuesday.

Investors in Asia will also assess South Korean producer prices for October, as well as New Zealand’s October trade figures.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 1.28%, while the Hang Seng Tech index saw a larger gain of 1.85%. Mainland Chinese markets were also in positive territory, rising 0.49%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 extended gains from Monday, climbing 0.28% and closing at 7,078.2.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.13%, while the Topix slid 0.21%.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.8%, while the small-cap Kosdaq inched 0.47% higher.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes posted gains, with the the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite recording a fifth consecutive day of gains.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq led gains, rising 1.13%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.58% and the S&P 500 added 0.74%.

Live updates: Asia markets rise, tech stocks in Taiwan, Hong Kong rise (cnbc.com)

 

Here are today’s top stories

November 20, 2023 at 11:01 PM GMT

Citigroup is eliminating more than 300 senior manager roles as part of Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser’s efforts to simplify the Wall Street giant, in part via employee terminations. The company started announcing the firings—which eliminate the jobs of people two levels below Fraser’s executive management team—on Monday. The dismissals amount to roughly 10% of the people working at that level.

The US stock market extended its powerful November rally on Monday. Traders have also been fixated on Treasury sales, especially after the US recently offered an unusually large premium to sell 30-year securities. Those auctions have been exerting a growing sway over stocks. Here’s your markets wrap.

Americans are increasingly tapping their retirement savings to cover housing and medical bills amid higher cost-of-living pressures, according to data released Monday from Fidelity Investments. Some 2.3% of workers took a hardship withdrawal last quarter, up from 1.8% a year earlier, the data showed. The top two reasons given for the uptick were to avoid foreclosure or eviction, and for medical expenses.

More

Bloomberg Evening Briefing: OpenAI Staff Threaten to Follow Altman to Microsoft - Bloomberg

Finally, is OpenAI, about to become ClosedAI?

Former OpenAI boss Sam Altman to join Microsoft

November 20, 2023

Former OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman is to join Microsoft’s advanced AI research team after a weekend which saw him ousted by OpenAI and briefly appear to be negotiating a return to the company.

ChatGPT maker OpenAI announced on Friday it was removing Mr Altman, with a statement from its board saying it “no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI”.

However, reports emerged over the weekend suggesting Mr Altman was in discussions with OpenAI about quickly returning as chief executive, but these talks are said to have broken down.

Now, Microsoft boss Satya Nadella has confirmed that Mr Altman and OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman – who also left the company on Friday – will be joining the tech giant “to lead a new advanced AI research team”.

“We look forward to moving quickly to provide them with the resources needed for their success,” Mr Nadella said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

The reason for Mr Altman’s exit from the AI company remains unclear.

On Friday, OpenAI’s board said in a statement that he had not been “consistently candid in his communications” but did not offer any further details.

The statement said Mr Altman’s behaviour was hindering the board’s ability to exercise its responsibilities.

Mira Murati, OpenAI’s chief technology officer, was named as interim CEO effective immediately, the company said.

It was then reported on Saturday that the board had begun discussing Mr Altman’s return under pressure from investors and employees – some of whom were posting their support for Mr Altman on social media.

On Sunday, Mr Altman posted a picture of himself to X which showed him wearing a guest pass for OpenAI’s office alongside a message that it would be the “first and last time” he wore one.

But any talks over Mr Altman’s return broke down, with OpenAI now set to appoint former Twitch chief executive Emmett Shear as Mr Altman’s permanent replacement, a move Microsoft boss Mr Nadella also referred to in his post.

Microsoft has invested billions of dollars into the AI firm as part of a long-term “partnership” between the companies.

More

Former OpenAI boss Sam Altman to join Microsoft (msn.com)

 

Your Evening Briefing: OpenAI Staff Threaten to Follow Altman to Microsoft

November 20, 2023 at 11:01 PM GMT

What began as a curious, largely unexplained announcement on Friday afternoon transformed over the weekend into a human resources firestorm. Sam Altman’s shocking departure as chief executive of OpenAI has led to almost all of his former employees threatening to quit and follow him to Microsoft. That is, they say, unless the current board of OpenAI—the one that showed Altman the door for not being “consistently candid”—resigns. More than 700 of OpenAI’s roughly 770 employees signed a letter to the board stating they are “unable to work for or with people that lack competence, judgment and care for our mission and employees.”

More

Bloomberg Evening Briefing: OpenAI Staff Threaten to Follow Altman to Microsoft - Bloomberg

 

Exclusive: OpenAI investors considering suing the board after CEO's abrupt firing

By Anna Tong, Krystal Hu and Jody Godoy  November 21, 2023 12:05 AM GMT

Nov 20 (Reuters) - Some investors in OpenAI, makers of ChatGPT, are exploring legal recourse against the company's board, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Monday, after the directors ousted CEO Sam Altman and sparked a potential mass exodus of employees.

Sources said investors are working with legal advisers to study their options. It was not immediately clear if these investors will sue OpenAI.

Investors worry that they could lose hundreds of millions of dollars they invested in OpenAI, a crown jewel in some of their portfolios, with the potential collapse of the hottest startup in the rapidly growing generative AI sector.

More

Exclusive: OpenAI investors considering suing the board after CEO's abrupt firing | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Last year we said, 'Things can't go on like this', and they didn't, they got worse.

Will Rogers.

‘Things Have Gotten Worse Since Trump:’ Voters Say ‘Bidenomics’ Not Working

The president has made 'Bidenomics' a central message in his re-election campaign, despite mounting evidence that it has not resulted in relief for Americans.

11/20/2023 Updated: 11/20/2023

President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign has tried to build enthusiasm across the country on his economic record and the success of “Bidenomics,” but voters on both sides of the aisle are confounded, saying they haven’t experienced any financial relief.

“I voted for Biden but I don’t know what he’s talking about when he says ‘Bidenomics,’ or whatever it is, is working,” Sabrina Jones of Denver, Colorado, told The Epoch Times. “Prices aren’t going down for me or anybody I know.”

Ms. Jones isn’t the only American with a pessimistic view of the economy.  

A survey recently released by Bankrate shows that 50 percent of U.S. adults say their overall financial situation is worse than it was prior to November 2020, and 69 percent say their cost of living has increased in the past three years.

“I feel like things have gotten worse since Trump, and I don't think they’re going to get better,” Ms. Jones said.

The reason many Americans have a dour outlook on the economy shouldn’t take anyone by surprise, senior economic analyst for Bankrate Mark Hamrick told The Epoch Times. “In a word: Inflation.”

“Even as inflation has peaked and the year-over-year and month-over-month numbers are coming down, prices have yet to really come down, particularly when looking at pre-pandemic levels.”

Mr. Hamrick added that while the unemployment rate remains low, “historically high and sustained inflation” does a lot more damage to the economy.

“It does appear that 2024 will be a better year for consumers from an inflation standpoint, but a big question mark is associated with just how much the job market will further moderate. Hiring is slowing, the unemployment rate is rising and the numbers of people filing for and receiving unemployment assistance are surging,” he said.

President: Bidenomics 'The American Dream'

Despite the mounting evidence that President Biden’s economic policies have not resulted in immediate relief for many American voters, he has still made it a central message in his re-election campaign.

"Folks, Bidenomics is just another way of saying 'the American Dream,'" President Biden said at a rally in Minnesota earlier this month. “It’s rooted in—it’s rooted in what’s always worked best for the country: Investing in America … I can honestly say I’ve never been more optimistic about America’s future than I am today.”

More

‘Things Have Gotten Worse Since Trump:’ Voters Say ‘Bidenomics’ Not Working | The Epoch Times

ECB to hold off on interest rate cuts until June, economist predicts

ECB will slowly cut rates, one cut per quarter, for remainder 2024 and into 2025 as euro zone economy heads for ‘soft landing’, says US bank’s head of Europe economics research

Mon Nov 20 2023 - 05:00

The European Central Bank (ECB) will not begin cutting interest rates until the middle of next year but the euro zone economy is unlikely to experience a sharp recession and is headed for a “soft landing” as inflation subsides and demand picks up again.

That’s according to Ruben Segura-Cayuela, head of Europe economics research with Bank of America.

On a visit to Dublin last week, Mr Segura-Cayuela said he expected Frankfurt to start bringing rates back down from June of next year.

“It’s going to be very hard to have cuts earlier than that as the ECB wants to see what happens to wages in 2024,” he said, noting that wage growth will have to moderate definitively for ECB policymakers to feel they are winning the inflation battle.

“I would expect the cutting cycle to start by June 2024,” he said. “I would expect them to start slow, one cut per quarter throughout the remainder of 2024 and 2025,” Mr Segura-Cayuela said.

However, he said Bank of America was forecasting “an inflation undershoot” in 2025 – meaning it will fall under the ECB’s 2 per cent target rate – and therefore “there is a significant probability that by then you will see much faster cuts”.

The US bank is forecasting inflation in the euro zone to fall to as low as 1.5 per cent in 2025.

The ECB has raised interest rates 10 times in the last 17 months – from zero to 4.5 per cent – in the biggest and most rapid period of monetary tightening ever undertaken by the central bank.

Mr Segura-Cayuela said 80 per cent of the “heavy lifting” in terms of taming inflation had already been achieved.

“You’re not going to see that in year-on-year rates but when you look at inflation the right way, you can see disinflation has gone 75-80 per cent of the way to where it needs to be,” he said, noting the momentum and the monthly rates in Europe are not running far in excess of the 2 per cent target rate.

He also highlighted that Europe was leading the way in terms of disinflation in the services sector, where inflation is considered to be most sticky.

Mr Segura-Cayuela said there was a misunderstanding about the way the shock that came with the war in Ukraine would operate through the euro zone economy, with some commentators having expected “an abrupt recession and a strong rebound”.

“What the war in Ukraine brought to Europe was a permanent income shock ... we are going to be paying more for stuff like energy and food at least until we fully finalise the green transition,” he said. “That permanent income shock has a persistent impact on activity. It shifts the whole activity profile lower; it doesn’t create a V-shaped shock, however,” he said.

Bank of America is expecting growth rates – for the euro zone – to be close to zero for the next two or three quarters. This might include a technical recession but it is consistent with a soft landing, Mr Segura-Cayuela said.

“Once you get to late 2024/25 and you start seeing a bit of an acceleration in the global economy because China starts doing a bit better, if we start seeing cuts from the ECB and if inflation keeps coming down, we can get a bit of an acceleration in the euro area economy,” he said.

ECB to hold off on interest rate cuts until June, economist predicts – The Irish Times

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Highest-Ever Childhood Vaccine Exemption Rate in History, Doctors Explain

 

Before the pandemic, the United States had maintained nearly 95 percent nationwide vaccination coverage for 10 years.

11/16/2023 Updated: 11/16/2023

----Post-COVID Skepticism Spilling Into Vaccine Skepticism

Dr. Cody Meissner, a professor of pediatrics at the Dartmouth Geisel School of Medicine, was concerned that people's skepticism toward the current COVID-19 vaccines may have also affected their attitude toward conventional vaccines, leading to the decline in CDC-recommended and state-required vaccinations, as recently reported by the CDC.

He suggested that the CDC's initial delayed recognition of myocarditis as a COVID vaccine side effect in adolescents and young adults, coupled with the agency's encouragement to vaccinate, as one example of what may be contributing to people's distrust.

“I think those [vaccination] recommendations were well-intentioned,” he said, but the slow acknowledgment of side effects may have left some people with a perception that the CDC was “not completely forthcoming.”

Pediatrician Dr. Mark Barrett said that the current trend is likely caused by people distrusting recommendations from the CDC, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and even their doctors.

“I feel parents are doing their own research,” he wrote to The Epoch Times via email.

Pediatrician Dr. Derek Husmann said that children having the lowest risk of severe COVID-19 gave parents and pediatricians a unique perspective, making them question the broad need for vaccines.

“The pediatricians’ perspective is pretty significantly different—in reference to the COVID pandemic—than a physician who takes care of adults,” Dr. Husmann said, “because the pediatric population was at essentially zero risk of death or serious complications from COVID infection.”

According to the CDC website dashboard, deaths from COVID-19 make up about 3 percent of all deaths, but the percentage is even smaller in children.

“There was a perceived conflict between the information that COVID was less serious in children, yet the vaccine was recommended for them. This was never satisfactorily explained or resolved,” Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and health policy in the Infectious Disease Division at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, wrote to The Epoch Times.

California pediatrician Dr. Samara Cardenas said that the public slowly came to realize the COVID-19 vaccines were not safe nor effective as initially promised, and this may have also prompted parents to question the need for routine vaccinations.

More

Highest-Ever Childhood Vaccine Exemption Rate in History, Doctors Explain | The Epoch Times

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Portugal was supplied only with wind power, hydro or solar energy for six days in a row

November 19, 2023

From household electrical appliances to factories used in industry, everything ran on wind energy, hydro or solar power for six days in a row.

Between 4:00 a.m. on October 31 and 9:00 a.m. As of November 6, the nation of ten million people relied solely on renewable energy, as 1,102 GWh were generated.
This exceeded national consumption over the same period by 262 GWh, while the previous record set in 2019 remains 131 hours.

While many countries still rely on fossil fuels as a form of energy, Portugal was able to produce more than enough renewable energy to run for six consecutive days.

Hugo Costa, head of EDP Renovables, the renewable arm of the state power company in the country, said: “The gas plants were there, waiting to send energy, in case it was necessary. It wasn’t like that, because the wind was blowing; It was raining a lot.

“And we were producing with a positive impact for consumers because prices have fallen dramatically, almost to zero.”

The recent successful test in Portugal comes as nations aim to meet the climate goals of the Paris Agreement by 2050.

By then, countries will have to run their grids carbon-free not just for six days, but all year round.
A handful of counties already do this thanks to hydropower endowments.

But the vast majority of the world’s nations still emit carbon emissions, which many climate activists believe will cause a real climate emergency in the future.

Portugal has taken a big step forward with its recent trial, after committing to developing renewable energy early and often.

Expert Miguel Prado, who covers Portugal’s energy sector for Expresso newspaper, said: “The key conclusion, in my opinion, is that it shows that the Portuguese grid is prepared for very high shares of renewable electricity and for its expected variation: We were able to manage both the sharp increase in hydroelectric and wind production, as well as the return to a lower proportion of renewable energy, when natural gas power plants were once again requested to supply part of the country’s demand.

Portugal was supplied only with wind power, hydro or solar energy for six days in a row | REVE News of the wind sector in Spain and in the world (evwind.es)

November 21, 1953 the British Natural History Museum declares “Piltdown Man” is a hoax.

Piltdown Man

The Piltdown Man was a paleoanthropological fraud in which bone fragments were presented as the fossilised remains of a previously unknown early human. Although there were doubts about its authenticity virtually from the beginning (in 1912), the remains were still broadly accepted for many years, and the falsity of the hoax was only definitively demonstrated in 1953. An extensive scientific review in 2016 established that amateur archaeologist Charles Dawson was responsible for the fraudulent evidence.

Piltdown Man - Wikipedia