Baltic Dry Index. 1462 +77 Brent Crude 84.39
Spot Gold 1993 U S 2 Year Yield 4.83 -0.15
By means of glasses, hotbeds, and hotwalls, very good grapes can be
raised in Scotland, and very good wine too can be made of them at about thirty
times the expense for which at least equally good can be brought from foreign
countries. Would it be a reasonable law to prohibit the importation of all
foreign wines, merely to encourage the making of claret and burgundy in
Scotland?
Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, 1776.
War? What war? As the stock casinos adopt Prime Minister “Sunny” Jim Callaghan’s infamous callous remark on returning from a Caribbean holiday in the middle of the 1979 UK “winter of discontent.” "Crisis? What crisis?"
With the central banks effectively blocked from further rate hikes and sooner or later forced into cutting interest rates, it’s time to start partying again in the stock casinos, or so the stock punters think.
Alright, Sunny Jim didn’t actually say it, The Sun newspaper made it up, though he came very close.
But our global stock casinos, led by the USA’s are also very close, never mind that a month ago Moslem terrorists murdered 1,400 mostly Jews, or that in vengeance, mostly Jews have slaughtered nearly 10,000 Palestinians, mostly Moslems, 60 percent women and children.
I know, this is not how mainstream media is reporting what is essentially history’s latest religious war. A horrified rest of the world looks on, impotent, but rapidly polarising.
As we stand on the brink of triggering WW3, the dialog of the deaf goes on between President Biden, Prime Minister Netanyahu, Hamas, Hezbollah, and a supporting cast of ineffectual walk-on actors.
In July 1914 Europe blundered
its way into WW1, which no one wanted or thought possible. In November 2023, we
seem tragically about to commit the same blunder, but with nukes on nearly every
side.
Europe stocks close slightly higher; Maersk down
17%
UPDATED FRI, NOV 3 2023 12:51 PM EDT
European stock markets closed cautiously higher on Friday, rounding off a
weekly rally powered by a series of solid earnings and a perceived dovish tilt
from central banks.
The Stoxx 600 ended
0.2% higher, led by retail stocks, which were up 1.7%. Oil and gas saw the
biggest drop, down by 2.2%.
The index withheld the downward drag from shipping giant Maersk,
which plummeted 17% after saying profits
would come in at the low end of guidance and announcing 10,000
job cuts.
Embattled Siemens Energy closed
more than 9% higher, following reports that it is considering the
sale of its stake in India’s Siemens Ltd as a way to strengthen its
balance sheet.
U.S. stocks had their best day since
June and U.S. and European government bond
yields retreated after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday held
rates and markets raised bets that the central bank has hit peak rates and cuts
are on the horizon.
These moves continued Friday after U.S.
jobs figures were weaker than expected.
“Traders are taking the U.S. central bank’s
second pause in a row as a clear indication that the Fed won’t hike any more,
and bond prices are implying that the first rate cut will come mid-2024,” said
George Lagarias, chief economist at Mazars Wealth Management.
“However, I think we should be careful. The
Fed hasn’t explicitly committed to a particular course of action, and certainly
not to a rate cut in eight months. Inflation is far from beaten... While it is
no longer the central scenario, it is not, and should not be, wholly
unthinkable that the Fed would raise rates again, allowing short yields to
rebound.”
The Bank of England meanwhile held rates for
a second consecutive meeting.
BOE Governor Andrew Bailey told
CNBC on Thursday that interest rates would have to be held “in
restrictive territory for some time.”
Like Christine Lagarde, president of the
European Central Bank — which last week also held
rates steady — he said it was too early to talk about rate cuts
and that risks to inflation remain.
Third-quarter earnings have also been driving stock movements this week,
with companies including Shell, Novo Nordisk, Lufthansa and BT boosted by beating expectations.
In Asia-Pacific,
markets closed higher after China’s service sector expanded at a slightly faster pace.
U.S. jobs figures further
boost stocks, bonds
European and U.S. stocks
and bonds rallied Friday after U.S. payrolls came
in weaker than anticipated, further fueling expectations that the Federal
Reserve could be through with rate hikes.
U.S.
Treasury yields fell sharply, along with both short- and
long-dated U.K. and German government bond yields, extending similar
moves on Thursday. Yields move inversely to prices.
“The weak but not too weak U.S. October
payrolls numbers have increased investors’ confidence that U.S. interest rates
have peaked and the US economy will be able to pull off a soft landing,” to
Nick Brooks, head of economic and investment research at ICG, said in emailed
comments.
“Markets have reacted strongly, with risk
assets rising sharply and developed economy government bonds yields dropping.”
European markets open to close: Stoxx, Fed, BOE,
earnings (cnbc.com)
CONFLICT RAGES Israel tells
citizens don’t travel ANYWHERE over fears of ‘violent & disturbing’
anti-Semitic attacks amid Gaza confict
November 3rd 2023, Updated: November 4th 2023,
ISRAEL has warned its citizens not to travel
anywhere due to the rise of “violent and disturbing” anti-Semitic attacks as
the Hamas war continues.
Eylon Levy, a spokesperson for the Israeli
government, said this was a “moment of peril” for the Jewish people worldwide.
An Israeli government spokesperson made the shocking announcement.
In an unheralded statement, he said: “Globally, I want to address this moment of peril for the Jewish people worldwide as we witness a disturbing spike in anti-Semitic hate speech and even instances of violence against Jews and Israelis following the October 7 massacre.
“Today,
the National Security Council and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs put out an
unusual global travel warning.
“We are
calling on all citizens of Israel to exercise
heightened caution when travelling anywhere abroad.
“We know
that Jewish communities and their institutions, Israeli diplomatic missions and
airports handling flights to and from Israel are key targets for anti-Semites
and violent anti-Semites.”
Mr Levy
added: “The National Security Council is urging all Israelis to consider
whether any foreign travel anywhere in the world is necessary at this dangerous
moment.
“Citizens
planning to travel to countries with specific travel plans are asked to
postpone their visits and we emphasise Arab and Middle Eastern states, the
Northern Caucasus, and countries bordering Iran.
“We are
also asking citizens and truly I cannot believe that we are doing this, we are
asking all citizens to avoid displaying any outward signs of their Israeli or
Jewish identity when travelling anywhere in the world.
“If you
must travel, please make sure you have the numbers of the emergency services
and the local Israeli embassies on speed dial.
“Keep away
from the anti-Israel pro-jihad protests and remain alert and vigilant about
your surroundings at all times.”
It comes
after the head of the terrorist group Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah said “all options are open”
fuelling fears a “second front” could open up.
The
Hezbollah chief, 63, praised the Hamas October 7 attack and branded it a
“sacred operation” that was “100 per cent Palestinian.”
He warned
that the battle has extended to “more than one front”.
The terror
chief said the deadly attacks a month ago led to an “earthquake” in Israel and
exposed the country’s weakness.
Meanwhile,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ruled out a temporary cease-fire in
the Gaza Strip and issued a warning in response.
Netanyahu
said Israel is continuing with all of its power and refuses a temporary
cease-fire that doesn’t include a return of our hostages.
He said:
“I tell our enemies to the north don’t test us, you will pay dearly.”
London’s
police force said there had been a 14-fold increase in incidents of
antisemitism since the October 7 attack.
The
Community Security Trust, which collates reports of antisemitism in Britain,
said the number of incidents in the three weeks following the attack was the
highest for any three-week period since it started collecting data in 1984.
In the US,
Jewish advocacy group the Anti-Defamation League reported last week that
antisemitic incidents had risen by about 400 per cent in the two weeks
following the October 7 attack, compared with the same period last year.
Over in
France, Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said on Monday that since Oct. 7
there had been 819 antisemitic acts. That compares with a figure of 436 for the
whole of 2022.
Darmanin
said there had been 414 arrests in connection with this trend.
At
least 1,400 people have died and 4,629 others have been injured in
Israel, according to Israeli authorities, since October 7, when Hamas launched
its surprise attack on Israel.
In the
neighbouring Gaza Strip, at least 9,061 people have been killed and more than
23,000 have been injured, according to the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health
Ministry
More
In other, almost irrelevant
news.
Wework is one of London’s biggest tenants
— what could a potential collapse mean?
FRIDAY 03 NOVEMBER 2023 10:51 AM
A
possible collapse of flexible workspace space provider Wework could send London
office vacancy levels close to 10 per cent, in a fresh blow to the capital’s
commercial property sector.
According
to new figures seen by City A.M. from real estate
information firm Co-Star, the number of office vacancies in London currently
sits at 9.2 per cent, but this could rise to close to 10 per cent if the
troubled company goes bust.
Wework
is London’s biggest tenant, currently representing 0.8 per cent of offices in
the entire office market. It currently has 44 sites and supplies over three
million square feet worth of space to employees across the capital.
But the trendy workplace provider has recently
found itself in hot water, with US reports suggesting that the company could file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy as soon as next
week.
The firm has been battling a substantial debt pile
for quite some time and earlier this year flagged ongoing concerns and
worries to investors.
Wework was once one of the fastest-growing
businesses in the world, but it has been hit hard by the rise of home and
hybrid working, which has reduced demand for office space.
It’s thought that bankruptcy protection in the US
would give the firm some time to perform open-heart surgery on its
finances.
A possible collapse of the firm would also rock
London’s office market which has struggled following a post-pandemic push to
hybrid working.
The BBC
reported on Thursday that Wework would not confirm how many UK sites would be
closing, however, it did say it would be closing one of its central London
locations near Blackfriars station.
Members
of the office told the outlet that they were told to leave the office by 30
November and that Wework would provide alternative accommodations.
However,
a leasing agent at one of London’s top commercial property firms told City
A.M. that landlords who house Wework sites will likely get another
operator to run those centres rather than having a vacancy.
They
said: “If it’s a good quality building, I think their prospects for releasing
will be high, given a shortage of good quality stock, or the alternative would
be getting in another coworking serviced office operator to actually run it
instead.”
Russ
Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: “A number of landlords will be
watching Wework’s latest financial contortions with concern, although this is
an accident that they will have seen coming from some way off, given how the
American firm’s share price has done nothing but slide since its (delayed)
initial public offering in 2021.
“Helical
even declared a number of leases forfeit[ed] last week for non-payment of rent
at a specific building, although a new licence was swiftly renegotiated on a
short-term basis.
“Helical
has noted it will have more to say on The Bower property at its results on 22
November and shareholders in real estate firms with exposure to Wework will be
looking for guidance on how any potential voids can be filled if, as and when
they occur.”
Just
last night reports revealed that landlord Helical cut its individual leases for
six floors of We Work office space at The Bower in London on Friday last week
due to a non-payment of rent for the September quarter Co-Star reported.
Since then, Helical allowed Wework to re-enter the
building, because they entered into a short-term lease agreement with Wework
and received a fee equivalent to the whole of the September quarter’s rent and
service charge due “under the terms of the previous contractual arrangements”.
Helical said in a statement on the London Stock Exchange: “Helical
is working on next steps for the space and will provide an update when the
half-year results are announced on 22 November.”
Wework told City A.M. that
it does not comment on speculation.
Wework is one of London's biggest tenants — what could a potential collapse mean? (cityam.com)
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Today
a repeat of a recent first. The seller is rumoured to be Saudi Arabia. Is the end
of the petrodollar now in sight? President Biden looks out of his depth in
Middle-East reality.
Chinese digital yuan CBDC used
for first time to settle cross-border oil deal
CBDC
and de-dollarization saw major strides last week with the 1-million-barrel deal
on the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange.
October
23, 2023
The digital yuan has been used for the first time to settle an oil
transaction, the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange (SHPGX) announced.
PetroChina International bought 1 million barrels of crude on Oct. 19.
The transaction was a response to a call by the Shanghai Municipal
Party Committee and Municipal Government to apply the Chinese central bank
digital currency (CBDC), also referred to as the e-CNY, to international trade,
the exchange said. It is “another
major step forward” for the digital yuan, according to
the state-controlled China Daily.
The seller and the price in the transaction were not disclosed. For
comparison, the price of the
“OPEC basket” of oil from 13 producers was $95.72 per barrel on Oct. 19.
The crude oil deal also marks an overall major step in the use of
the yuan on the international market and in the global movement toward
de-dollarization. In the first three quarters of 2023, the use of the yuan in
cross-border settlements was up 35% year-on-year, reaching $1.39 trillion,
China Daily reported.
The yuan was first used
for a liquified natural gas (LNG) purchase on SHPGX in March when the French
TotalEnergies agreed to sell LNG to the China National Offshore Oil Corporation
(CNOOC). The second LNG deal in yuan occurred last week between CNOOC and
French Engie. Those transactions did not involve the digital yuan.
Also on Oct. 19, First Abu Dhabi Bank announced that
it had signed an agreement on digital currency with the Bank of China, the
state-owned commercial bank, at the third Belt and Road Forum for International
Corporation, which had ended a day before. China and the United Arab Emirates,
of which Abu Dhabi is part, are participants in the mBridge platform to support
cross-border transactions with CBDC. MBridge intends to launch as a
minimum viable product next year.
Abu Dhabi signed an
agreement with India in August to settle oil deals in rupees.
Chinese digital yuan CBDC used for
first time to settle cross-border oil deal (cointelegraph.com)
Maersk to cut
at least 10,000 jobs as shipping boom unravels
November
3, 2023
COPENHAGEN (Reuters) -Shipping group A.P.
Moller-Maersk, reported a steep drop in third-quarter profit and revenue on
Friday and said it would cut at least 10,000 jobs in the face of overcapacity,
rising costs and weaker prices.
Maersk, which controls about one-sixth of global
container trade, transporting goods for a host of major retailers and consumer
goods companies such as Walmart and Nike, flagged a steeper downturn in demand
than analysts and investors had expected.
"Our industry is facing a new normal with
subdued demand, prices back in line with historical levels and inflationary
pressure on our cost base," CEO Vincent Clerc said in a statement.
"Since the summer, we have seen overcapacity
across most regions triggering price drops and no noticeable uptick in ship
recycling or idling," he said.
Shares in the Copenhagen-based group slid 11.1% by
0904 GMT, to their lowest level in three years.
Jyske Bank analyst Morten Holm Enggaard said the
share price was mainly hit by Maersk saying it would reconsider whether to
continue its share buy-back program into 2024.
"The only way we can read it is that we have
to look into something very bad in 2024, and probably worse than what we had
expected," said Enggaard.
Maersk said it expects global container volumes in
its ocean business, its largest segment, to fall by up to 2% this year,
primarily as a result of weak consumer demand and destocking by firms following
the scramble for goods in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic.
The group already warned in August of a steeper
decline in global demand for shipping containers by sea this year.
More
Maersk to cut at least 10,000 jobs as
shipping boom unravels (msn.com)
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
More
contempt for the public, by all parties in the Commons, on display yet again,
on the issue of Covid-19 vaccine safety. Approx. 14 minutes.
Safe
and effective
More
contempt for the public by His Majesty’s (inept) Government.
We were going to be great’: UK’s
Covid failings laid bare in week of damning testimony
Evidence
from Downing Street insiders during inquiry paints devastating picture of
response to pandemic.
November 3, 2023
As Italy
took the drastic step of imposing a nationwide lockdown in early March 2020,
senior officials in Downing Street sat “laughing” as Britain’s European
neighbour desperately tried to contain the spread of Covid-19.
The revelation came as a series of damning testimonies to the UK’s official pandemic inquiry this week laid bare a “toxic” and “macho” culture at the heart of government that hampered Britain’s response to the health crisis.
In the weeks before the UK’s first lockdown, with the country unprepared for the pandemic, then prime minister Boris Johnson, other ministers and Whitehall mandarins went on holiday, the inquiry heard.
The “de facto assumption” was “we were going to be great”, Britain’s former highest-ranking female civil servant said on Wednesday.
Helen MacNamara, deputy cabinet secretary between 2020 and 2021, said Johnson believed the UK would “sail through” and told those around him to “be careful of overcorrecting in advance of something that was unlikely to have a huge impact”.
“Sitting there
and saying it was great and sort of laughing at the Italians was just . . . it
felt how it sounds,” she added.
The UK’s Covid public inquiry is examining the government’s response to the virus that shut swaths of the economy, upended social life and has killed more than 227,000 people in Britain and infected many millions more. It is due to run until the summer of 2026.
Like several independent commissions investigating the pandemic in other countries, the inquiry is assessing senior decision-making via written and oral evidence from former and current ministers and officials. It has also been given access to reams of private messages that they exchanged in the run-up to, and at the height of, the crisis.
Dominic Cummings, Johnson’s former chief adviser, told the inquiry on Tuesday that the spread of the virus was not considered an “imminent crisis” in February 2020, even as overseas death tolls mounted.
Instead, officials took holiday during the school
half-term that month, viewing Covid as “quite a distant problem”. “[Johnson]
said he wanted to work on his Shakespeare book,” Cummings said, referring to a
book that he was commissioned to write before he became prime minister.
Johnson’s spokesperson this week denied the claim.
More
‘We were going to be great’: UK’s Covid failings laid bare in week of damning testimony (ft.com)
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Extraordinary
contra-rotating floating wind turbines to begin testing
Loz Blain November
01, 2023
A wildly innovative
turbine that could halve the cost of offshore wind is set to go into testing in
Norway. The 19-m (62-ft), 30-kW, contra-rotating vertical-axis turbine is a
prototype of a design that could scale to unprecedented size and power.
Most wind turbines look
like a propeller on a stick – which is fine, except once you take the concept
out into the deep ocean, where the vast majority of the world's best wind power
resources are, and scale it up, it's a design that makes less and less sense.
All the heavy bits are right up the top, so it's difficult and expensive to
build and maintain a floating version that doesn't want to tip over in the
wind.
That's what makes World Wide Wind (WWW)'s
contra-rotating VAWT such a fascinating
alternative. All the heavy generator business is kept right at the bottom –
indeed, under water and below the turbine's floating pontoon. That adds enough
weight at the bottom to keep the whole thing from topping into the water,
requiring only a set of mooring anchors.
The generator's rotor
and stator are then connected to a pair of vertical-axis turbines, each running
three blades at 45 degrees from the main tower shaft. The lower turbine is set
to rotate in one direction, and the upper one, mounted on a pole that runs up
the middle of the lower one, is set to rotate in the other direction.
The
blades are simple and fixed, and harvest useful torque from the wind most of
the way around, much like sailboats can.
"The
only time it will not catch speed is when it's going directly upwind, or
directly downwind," WWW CTO Hans Bernhoff told us in
an interview last year. "As a vertical axis blade goes around,
it more or less gets torque on 300 degrees of the 360."
The
generator resistance can be managed by the microsecond to control the speed of
the turbine.
Thus,
whichever way the wind's blowing, the floating double VAWT passively tilts to
an optimal angle, and the two turbines begin turning in opposite directions,
effectively doubling the speed at which the "rotor" is turning in the
"stator."
"You
can think of that as a way to double your power generation, or as a way to
reduce your generator cost by half," former WWW CEO Trond Lutdal told us.
"So it's lower cost, it's much more scalable, and any maintenance happens
at the bottom and not hundreds of feet up in the air."
The torque placed on the
structure by the wind is effectively neutralized by the two opposing rotations.
On top of this, the conical sweep of each rotor reduces blade tip speed, and
produces less of a wake effect behind it, so in a practical wind farm situation,
the company says they can be deployed closer together, generating more energy
from a given area and reducing connection cabling.
More
Extraordinary contra-rotating
floating wind turbines to begin testing (newatlas.com)
This weekend’s music
diversion. Johan Hemich Roman, “the Swedish Handel.” Approx. 8 minutes.
Oboe
Concerto in B-Flat Major, BeRI 46: I. Allegro
Oboe Concerto in B-Flat Major, BeRI
46: I. Allegro - YouTube
Johan Helmich Roman
Johan Helmich Roman - Wikipedia
This weekend’s chess
update. Approx. 5 minutes.
Jeffery
Beats a Grandmaster in 14 Moves!
Jeffery Beats a Grandmaster in 14
Moves! - YouTube
This
weekend’s the math’s update. Approx. 11
minutes.
The
fabulous Fibonacci flower formula
The fabulous Fibonacci flower formula
- YouTube
It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy...What is prudence in the conduct of every private family, can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom.
Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, 1776.
No comments:
Post a Comment