Baltic Dry Index. 1401 -58 Brent Crude 85.42
Spot Gold 1986 US 2 Year Yield 4.95 -0.12
November 2, 1917 The Balfour Declaration was a public statement issued by
the British government in 1917 during the First World War announcing its support for the
establishment of a "national home for the Jewish people" in Palestine, then an Ottoman region with a small minority Jewish population. The declaration was contained in a letter
dated 2 November 1917 from the United
Kingdom's Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour to Lord Rothschild, a leader of the British Jewish community, for transmission to the Zionist Federation of Great Britain and Ireland. The text of the declaration was
published in the press on 9 November 1917.
Balfour Declaration - Wikipedia
As expected, the US central bank left it’s key interest rate unchanged, issued soothing guidance about the future of the US economy, leaving many stock punters thinking this might be the top in global interest rates
Earlier, the US Treasury announced Treasury debt sales for the rest of 2023 and Q1-24, in line with market expectations.
Over to today’s Bank of England rate setting meeting, where the expectation is that the BOE will follow the ECB and US Fed and leave their interest rate unchanged.
Rounding out yesterday, oil fell, US yields fell, gold rose.
Now if the new Middle East war doesn’t spread, if Arab and Moslem outrage doesn’t end up generating some kind of oil embargo and if Ukraine’s failed “counter offensive” doesn’t end in political collapse in Kiev, we just might get a Santa Claus rally into the year end.
But 2024 seems likely to be the year of global recession.
Asia shares, bonds
rally as Powell feeds hopes of end to rate hikes
By Stella Qiu
November 2, 2023 2:10 AM GMT
SYDNEY, Nov 2
(Reuters) - Asian shares and bonds extended a global rally on Thursday as a
non-committal Federal Reserve Chair had markets double down on bets that U.S.
interest rates have peaked and cuts are on the way.
Investors are now awaiting the results from Apple (AAPL.O) later in the day, a bellwether for consumer demand and the tech sector. The Cupertino California-based company is expected to report a 1% decrease in quarterly revenue.
MSCI's
broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) surged 1.7% to
the highest level in one week. Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) gained 1.4% to cross
the 32,000 level for the first time in two weeks.
China's
blue chips (.CSI300) were
0.3% higher, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) jumped 1.7%.
Stock futures in
Europe and U.S. also gained. EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.8% early in Asia,
while S&P 500 futures added 0.3% and Nasdaq futures increased 0.5%.
Overnight,
the Fed held the policy rate steady in its
current 5.25%-5.50% range. While Chair Jerome Powell did not rule out another
hike, markets judged he was not quite as hawkish as he might have been.
Fed funds
futures rallied as markets pared back the risk of a December hike to about 22%
and a January move to 28%. Markets have priced in a 70% chance that the
tightening is over and rate cuts could amount to 85 basis points next year,
beginning as soon as June.
Wall
Street and Treasuries rallied. The S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 1% and the
Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) surged
1.6%.
The benchmark
10-year Treasury yield eased another 2 basis points to 4.7089%, the lowest in
more than two weeks. Overnight, it tumbled 14 basis points, the biggest daily
drop since March, also in part due to a Treasury announcement that said the
government will slow increases in the size of its longer-dated auctions.
"While
growth was incredibly strong in the third quarter of 2024 at 5%, we suspect a
substantial slowing in 4Q24, which, based on Powell's remarks today, likely
won't be enough to garner additional tightening," Tiffany Wilding, an
economist at PIMCO, wrote in a note to clients.
"Instead
the FOMC is happy to remain on hold, and watch and see how the economy evolves
early next year."
The
next big focal point for the market is the non-farm payrolls data on Friday,
which analysts expect to show the economy added 180,000 jobs in October,
slowing from 336,000 increase the previous month. It will come after private payrolls increased far
less than expected.
More
Asia
shares, bonds rally as Powell feeds hopes of end to rate hikes | Reuters
S&P 500
futures tick higher as attention turns from Fed to latest earnings reports:
Live updates
UPDATED THU, NOV 2 2023 1:23 AM EDT
S&P 500 futures inched higher Thursday
morning as investors shifted focus from the Federal Reserve’s policy decision
to the latest batch of corporate earnings reports.
S&P
500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each
rose around 0.2%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average added
30 points, up nearly 0.1%.
SolarEdge tumbled
more than 18% after posting an
unexpected loss and offering dismal guidance for fourth-quarter revenue. DoorDash climbed
more than 7% on earnings that surpassed Wall Street forecasts, while Etsy fell
5% after management warned of a challenging environment for consumer
discretionary spending.
The moves follow a winning
session on Wall Street that also marked the start of a new
trading month. The Dow climbed
more than 200 points on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each
ended up more than 1%.
Wednesday’s session was centered
around the Fed’s decision to keep
interest rates unchanged and the subsequent press conference
with Jerome Powell, the central bank’s chair. Powell said he would not rule out
a rate increase at the December meeting, leaving market participants unsure of
when the hiking cycle would end.
“We expected Powell to talk tough
and do his best to keep markets from taking the two successive ‘skips’ in
interest rate hikes as a green light for risk assets,” said Chris Zaccarelli,
chief investment officer for the Independent Advisor Alliance. But, “we were
surprised at how detailed he has been in his language that the Fed is still
worried about inflation and wouldn’t hesitate to raise rates again in the near
future.”
Earlier in the session, investors
parsed the Treasury’s
plan for future bond sales and the latest
ISM manufacturing index, which showed the industry contracted more
than expected in October.
Looking ahead, traders will watch
for Thursday morning data on jobless claims, labor costs, productivity and
factory orders. Closely watched statistics on nonfarm payrolls, the
unemployment rate and hourly wages are slated for release on Friday morning.
Thursday also brings a busy day
of corporate earnings. Starbucks, Eli Lilly, Peloton and Fox are
among those reporting before the bell, followed by Apple, Paramount, Carvana and DraftKings after
the market closes.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Treasury details plans to step up size of bond
sales to manage growing debt load and higher rates
The Treasury
Department announced plans Wednesday to accelerate the size of its auctions as
it looks to handle its heavy debt load and with financing costs rising.
In a development
getting close attention on Wall Street, the department detailed its refunding
plans for future debt sales. The announcement comes with Treasury yields around
their highest levels since 2007, a reflection of financial markets spooked over
how much damage higher borrowing costs could exact.
Most immediately, the
Treasury will auction $112 billion in debt next week to refund $102.2 billion
of notes set to mature Nov. 15, raising more than $9 billion in extra funds.
The sale will come in
three parts, starting Tuesday with $48 billion in 3-year notes, with subsequent
days featuring respective sales of $40 billion in 10-year notes then $24
billion in 30-year bonds. The total sale matched some estimates around Wall Street
in recent days.
From there, the
department said it will increase the auction size of various maturities,
focusing more on coupon-bearing notes and bonds. The Treasury will maintain its
current auction size for bills until late November, when it expects to have its
general account replenished enough to implement “modest reductions” through
mid- to late-January.
For auctions on
coupon securities, the department detailed a step-up in the pace from previous
levels, while it said longer-dated debt would increase at a “more moderate”
rate.
---- On Monday, the department said it would
need to borrow $776 billion in the current quarter and $816
billion in the first quarter of calendar 2024.
The auction changes are important
to investors because they could provide a window into where yields are heading.
Markets have been concerned about whether there will be enough demand to meet
the Treasury’s needs, which would send yields up even further and possibly
cause financial distress.
However, most auctions have been
fairly well subscribed of late, though yields are still around their highest
levels since 2007, the early days of the global financial crisis.
Treasury officials have been
attributing most of the rise in yields to expectations for higher growth.
However, that in turn has spurred concern that the Federal Reserve will have to
keep benchmark rates elevated as it continues to try to bring inflation down to
acceptable levels.
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
South Korea reports hotter
than expected inflation rate, accelerating for third straight month
UPDATED THU, NOV 2 2023 1:23 AM EDT
South Korea’s inflation rate quickened
for the third straight month in October, with the consumer price index
increasing 3.8% year-on-year.
This was higher
than the 3.6% expected by economists polled by Reuters, and also more than the
3.7% rise in September.
The reading marks
the third straight month that the inflation rate in the country has climbed,
after hitting a 25-month low of 2.3% in July.
Hong Kong retail sales
clock slowest growth since start of the year
Hong Kong’s retail
sales grew at their slowest pace since January, highlighting the impact of a
global high interest rate environment.
Retail sales for
September rose 13% on a year-over-year basis, less than the prior month’s 13.7%
rise, official data showed late on Wednesday.
“The culprit of
sluggish recovery is elevated interest rates, which has been dampening
consumption & tourism, external trade, and investment,” said Samuel Tse, a
DBS economist. “HK economic fundamentals closely follows the Mainland (China).”
Tse says external
demand from both China and the rest of the world were tepid, highlighting that
rising rates restrained consumption through high fixed deposits rate, a strong Hong Kong dollar and
a weak asset market.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
UK
manufacturing mired in deepest downturn since 2008 financial crisis
WEDNESDAY 01 NOVEMBER 2023
10:25 AM
The UK’s manufacturing
sector is engulfed in the deepest downturn since the 2008 financial crisis as
market uncertainty depresses activity, a closely watched survey suggests.
According to the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS) the UK manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) recorded 44.8 in October, with the 50 mark separating growth from contraction.
Although this was an improvement on last month’s figure of
44.3, it was revised down from last week’s initial October estimate of 45.2.
This meant production fell for the eighth successive month –
the longest sustained run of contraction since 2008/09.
The survey pointed to
lower new orders, falling output and declining stocks of purchases. Delivery
times also improved, which is normally a sign of weak demand. Exports meanwhile
fell for the twenty-first successive month as firms suffered from weaker demand
from Europe, China and Brazil.
“Companies are finding
trading conditions difficult as they face headwinds from client destocking,
market uncertainty and the impact of the cost-of-living crisis on consumer
demand,” Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said.
Manufacturing in
almost all major economies has been contracting for many months now.
Slow growth in China has dented demand while consumers have increasingly
prioritised spending on services rather than goods post-pandemic.
Rising interest rates are also putting cost pressures on businesses with experts suggesting the downturn has further to run. “We doubt that manufacturing output will start to recover until early next year,” Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said.
For the thirteenth month in a row
manufacturing firms continued cutting jobs, the survey showed, although the
rate slowed slightly compared to previous months.
Inflationary pressures may be easing
as selling prices decreased for the fourth time in the past five months. But
Dobson said “this brighter inflation outlook comes at the cost of increased
recession risk, being a symptom of the broader weak demand malaise”.
UK manufacturing in deepest downturn since 2008 financial crisis (cityam.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
More
contempt for the public, by all parties in the Commons, on display yet again,
on the issue of Covid-19 vaccine safety.
I will leave this callous display of contempt for the UK public up for
the rest of the week. Approx. 14
minutes.
Safe
and effective
The Veil Of Silence Over
Excess Deaths
MONDAY,
OCT 30, 2023 - 06:00 AM
Around the world, there has been a deafening
silence over excess deaths from governments and the mainstream media, who
not so long ago were quite fixated on the daily death toll for Covid.
On October 20th, a 30-minute adjourned debate
(20 rejections later) on excess deaths in the UK House of Commons was finally
secured by Andrew Bridgen, MP for
North West Leicestershire and member of the Reclaim Party.
Bridgen began his speech to the sound of
erupting cheers from the full, upper public gallery, in stark contrast to the
almost empty chamber below.
Where were the hundreds of MPs who would
normally sit shoulder to shoulder in the chamber? It appears, an increase in
deaths of their constituents was not a pressing issue for them on that Friday
afternoon.
We’ve experienced more excess deaths
since July 2021 than in the whole of 2020, unlike the pandemic, however, these deaths are not
disproportionately of the old, in other words, the excess deaths
are striking down people in the prime of life but no-one seems to care.
I fear history will not judge this house kindly.
Strikingly, excess deaths have been seen
across all age groups, which Bridgen pointed out during
his speech.
More
The Veil Of Silence Over Excess Deaths | ZeroHedge
Kids Less Likely
to Spread COVID in Daycare Than at Home: Study
Research
disputes the notion of childcare centers as major COVID-19 transmission hubs.
10/30/2023 Updated: 10/30/2023
A
new study disputes the widely-held belief that childcare centers are primary
sources of COVID-19 transmission. These findings could influence future
exclusion guidelines.
Limited Transmission in
Child Care Centers
Over the past three years, the daily routine
of dropping children off at daycare has been fraught with concern. Fear of
children contracting COVID-19 often battled against the worry of an unexpected
call to retrieve them due to a classroom case. A fresh perspective from a study published in JAMA Network Open may
alleviate some of these anxieties.
The study monitored 83 children across 11
childcare centers, extending its observation to the children's household
contacts for a total 118 adults, 16 siblings, and 21 providers over a year.
While participants underwent weekly COVID-19 tests and maintained symptom
diaries, center directors reported weekly on the health of all 1,154 children
and 402 care providers in attendance.
Findings suggest that COVID-19 isn't
significantly spread by children in daycare to caregivers, peers, or their own
families. Notably, the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate within these centers was
only 2 to 3 percent, indicating that neither kids nor caregivers are the
primary culprits of COVID-19 spread in these environments.
More
Kids Less Likely to Spread COVID in Daycare Than at Home: Study | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
New battery technology could
lead to safer, high-energy electric vehicles
Engineering
researchers develop way to prevent damage that plagues next-gen lithium
batteries
Date: October 27, 2023
Source: University of Maryland
Summary:
Researchers studying how lithium batteries fail have developed a new technology
that could enable next-generation electric vehicles (EVs) and other devices that
are less prone to battery fires while increasing energy storage.
The innovative method, presented in a
paper published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suppresses the
growth of lithium dendrites -- damaging branch-like structures that develop
inside so-called all-solid-state lithium batteries, preventing firms from
broadly commercializing the promising technology. But this new design for a
battery "interlayer," led by Department of Chemical and Biomolecular
Engineering Professor Chunsheng Wang, stops dendrite formation, and could open
the door for production of viable all-solid-state batteries for EVs.
At least 750,000 registered EVs in
the U.S. run on lithium-ion batteries -- popular because of their high energy
storage but containing a flammable liquid electrolyte component that burns when
overheated. While no government agency tracks vehicle fires by type of car, and
electric car battery fires appear to be relatively rare, they pose particular
risks; the National Transportation Safety Board reports that first responders
are vulnerable to safety risks, including electric shock and the exposure to toxic
gasses emanating from damaged or burning batteries.
All-solid-state batteries could lead
to cars that are safer than current electric or internal combustion models, but
creating a strategy to bypass the drawbacks was laborious, Wang said. When
these batteries are operated at the high capacities and charging-discharging
rates that electric vehicles demand, lithium dendrites grow toward the cathode
side, causing short circuits and a decay in capacity.
He and Postdoctoral Associate Hongli
Wan began to develop a theory for the formation of lithium dendrite growth in
2021; it remains a matter of scientific debate, the researchers said.
"After we figured out that part,
we proposed the idea to redesign the interlayers that would effectively
suppress the lithium dendrite growth," he said.
Their solution is unique because of
the stabilizing of the battery's interfaces between the solid electrolyte and
the anode (where electrons from a circuit enter the battery) and the
electrolyte and the cathode (where energy flows out of the battery). The new
battery structure adds a fluorine-rich interlayer that stabilizes the cathode
side, as well as a modification of the anode's interlayer with magnesium and
bismuth -- suppressing the lithium dendrite.
"Solid-state batteries are
next-generation because they can achieve high energy and safety. In current
batteries, if you achieve high energy, you'll sacrifice safety," said
Wang.
Researchers have other challenges to
solve before the product enters the market. To commercialize all-solid-state
batteries, experts will have to scale down the solid electrolyte layer to
achieve a similar thickness to the lithium-ion batteries' electrolyte, which
will improve energy density -- or how much power the battery can store. High
costs of basic materials are another challenge, the team said.
Aiming to release the new batteries
to the market by 2026, advanced battery manufacturer Solid Power plans to begin
trials of the new technology to assess its potential for commercialization.
Continuing research aims to further boost energy density, the researchers said.
New battery technology could lead to safer,
high-energy electric vehicles | ScienceDaily
Whoever
controls the volume of money in our country is absolute master of all industry
and commerce...when you realize that the entire system is very easily
controlled, one way or another, by a few powerful men at the top, you will not
have to be told how periods of inflation and depression originate.
President James A. Garfield.
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