Baltic Dry Index. 1855 +100 Brent Crude 81.44
Spot Gold 1994 US 2 Year Yield 4.89 +0.03
“I’m very pleased to
be here. Let’s face it, at my age I’m very pleased to be anywhere.”
George Burns.
In the stock casinos, a nervous start in Asia.
In Europe a warning of rising insolvencies from the Bundesbank. Better news from the UK (slightly.)
In the Gaza war on women and children, a “pause”. But will it, can it, last the promised four days?
Asia markets
mixed as investors assess key Japan economic data releases
UPDATED THU, NOV 23 2023 11:54 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed as investors
assess key economic data out from Japan on Friday.
The world’s third
largest economy saw its core inflation rate rise to 2.9% in October, higher
than the 2.8% seen in September. The headline inflation rate for October came
in at 3.3%, accelerating from the 3% seen in from the month before.
The country will
also expect flash estimates for its November factory activity from the au Jibun
bank.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed
upon its return from a public holiday, gaining 0.96%, while the Topix advanced
0.7%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose
0.43%. South Korea’s Kospi slid
marginally, but the small cap Kosdaq rose 0.13%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index plunged
1.17% on its open, but the mainland Chinese CSI 300 benchmark index saw a
smaller loss of 0.11%
U.S. markets were closed for Thanksgiving on
Thursday, but will come back for a half day of trading on Friday.
Futures tied to the three major
indexes were all up marginally, with futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.09%
higher.
Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures climbed
0.08%, and the Nasdaq
Composite futures gained 0.1%.
Asia stock markets
today: Live updates, Japan inflation, PMI figures (cnbc.com)
The
vice-president of Germany’s central bank has a warning for lenders as
insolvencies rise
Germany’s major banks need to increase their
provisions for non-performing loans, as corporate insolvencies and credit risks
mount, according to Bundesbank Vice-President Claudia Buch.
Europe’s largest economy has been
dubbed the “sick man of Europe” by some economists, after entering a technical recession earlier
this year while economic activity faces further downward
pressure from a collapse in construction.
Lawmakers in Berlin are meanwhile scrambling for solutions to a developing
budget crisis that could threaten the future of the country’s
coalition government.
Like the rest of the euro zone, the
German economy is dealing with a rapid rise in interest rates, as the European Central Bank took
its main deposit facility from a record low of -0.5% in September 2019 to a
record-high of 4% in September 2023.
“I will say that, actually, the
financial sector dealt quite well with this increase in interest rates. At the
same time, the full effects are not yet visible, so they haven’t really worked
their way through the balance sheets of the banks, and this is why we caution
the banks as usual,” Buch told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach on Wednesday.
---- German banks enjoyed a strong third quarter, with Deutsche Bank posting
a net
profit of 1.031 billion euros ($1.13 billion) and Commerzbank more
than tripling
its net profit from the previous year to 684 million euros.
Buch nevertheless noted that provisioning for non-performing loans did not
increase as substantially as the central bank would have liked, given the sharp
rise in interest rates and the “very uncertain environment” for the economy.
“Provisioning has increased a bit,
but if you compare it to historical averages, it is still at a relatively low
level and the same actually holds for corporate insolvencies, so corporate
insolvencies which actually came down over the past 20 years have increased
slightly, but are still way below historic averages,” she said.
“In all likelihood, given the
structural change that we have, given the uncertainty that we have around us,
corporate insolvencies are likely to increase, credit risk is likely to
increase, and this is why we — on both sides, from the macro-prudential side
and the micro-prudential side — really make banks aware of these risks and urge
them to increase whatever they can, their resilience.”
A
Germany central bank official warns lenders as insolvencies rise (cnbc.com)
UK consumer
confidence jumps despite lingering inflation pain
By Suban Abdulla
November
24, 2023 12:17 AM GMT
LONDON, Nov 24
(Reuters) - British consumers have turned more optimistic about the outlook for
the economy and their personal finances this month but their mood remains a
long way off pre-COVID levels, market research firm GfK said on Friday.
Despite
lingering cost-of-living pressures, GfK's headline consumer confidence index
was stronger than anticipated in November, increasing to -24 from October's
three-month low of -30.
November's
reading was above the -28 forecast in a Reuters poll of economists, and follows
a sharp fall the month before.
The six-point
increase was the biggest month-on-month improvement since March to April
although Friday's reading was still much weaker than just before the
coronavirus pandemic hit Britain.
"Recent ups
and downs in confidence have underlined the nation's topsy-turvy economic mood
as encouraging news about falling inflation and wage growth is offset by high
personal taxation, alongside costly fuel and energy bills," Joe Staton,
GfK's client strategy director, said.
Britain's economy
has suffered stagnating growth but GfK's measure of how consumers view the
economy in the 12 months ahead increased to -26 from -32 in October while
feelings about the outlook for their personal finances rose by five points to
-3.
The
Bank of England, which has held interest rates at 5.25% at its last two
meetings after 14 consecutive increases, is closely monitoring upside risks to
inflation. Financial markets are almost certain rates have peaked, but Governor
Andrew Bailey last week said it was "too early" to think about rate
cuts.
More
UK
consumer confidence jumps despite lingering inflation pain | Reuters
Finally, that Gaza “pause” starts. Day one of
four.
Israel-Hamas
war live updates: Cease-fire to start at 7 a.m. local time Friday, hostage
release due at 4 p.m., Qatar says
UPDATED THU, NOV 23 2023 3:04 PM
EST
Qatar’s Foreign Ministry on
Thursday announced a temporary Israel-Hamas cease-fire will begin at 7 a.m.
local time on Friday (12 a.m. ET), with the first group of 13 hostages to be
released at 4 p.m. on the same day.
The truce will last for four
days, the Qatari spokesperson said, adding that they expect the warring parties
to adhere to the terms of the agreement.
Along with Egypt and the U.S.,
Qatar helped mediate negotiations, which was initially expected to see an
exchange of hostages taking place on Thursday.
Tzachi Hanegbi, Israel’s national
security adviser, said late Wednesday that the hostage release has been delayed
until at least Friday.
“The contacts on the release of
our hostages are advancing and continuing constantly,” Hanegbi said in a
statement translated by NBC News. “The start of the release will take place
according to the original agreement between the sides, and not before Friday.”
Israel-Hamas war live updates: News on Gaza conflict (cnbc.com)
“I don’t feel old. I don’t feel anything until noon. Then it’s time for my nap.”
Bob Hope.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
China wealth manager
Zhongzhi flags insolvency, liabilities of $64 bln
November
23, 2023 4:08 AM GMT
BEIJING, Nov 23
(Reuters) - China's Zhongzhi Enterprise Group told investors it is heavily
insolvent with liabilities of up to $64 billion, more than double its assets,
as one of the country's leading wealth managers grapples with a deepening
property sector crisis.
The firm, which
has sizable exposure to China's real estate sector, apologised to its investors
in a letter that said it had total liabilities of about 420 billion yuan ($58
billion) to 460 billion yuan ($64 billion).
The liabilities
compared to Zhongzhi's estimated total assets of about 200 billion yuan ($27
billion), according to the letter, which was issued on Wednesday and was seen
by Reuters.
Beijing-based
Zhongzhi did not immediately respond a Reuters request for comment.
The worsening
woes at Zhongzhi, a major player in China's $3 trillion shadow banking sector -
roughly the size of the French economy - is set to reignite worries about the
ripple effect of the property debt crisis on the broader financial sector.
China's highly
indebted property sector has been reeling from a liquidity crunch since 2020.
Defaults by developers since late 2021 have impeded economic growth and rattled
global markets.
Shadow
banking-linked wealth managers in China typically operate outside many of the
rules governing commercial banks and mainly channel the proceeds of wealth
products sold to retail investors to real estate developers and other sectors.
Signs
of trouble at the Zhongzhi group first came to light in July when Zhongrong
International Trust Co, a leading trust company controlled by Zhongzhi, missed
payments on dozens of investment products.
Zhongzhi, whose
business interests span from mining to wealth management, said in the letter
that as the group's assets were concentrated in long-term debt and equity
investments it was difficult to liquidate them and book the returns.
"Initial
inspections show that the group is seriously insolvent and has significant
continuing operational risks. The resources available for debt repayment in the
short term are much lower than the group's overall debt scale," it said.
More
China wealth manager Zhongzhi flags insolvency,
liabilities of $64 bln | Reuters
Germany
shelves 2024 budget talks as crisis deepens
November
22, 2023
BERLIN (Reuters) -German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition on Wednesday indefinitely postponed talks on
next year's budget as it struggled to find a way out of a crisis caused by a
court ruling that blew a 60 billion euro ($65 billion) hole in its finances.
The delay to the
talks, which were scheduled in parliament for Thursday, underscored the
challenge facing the government after the constitutional court blocked the
transfer of unused pandemic funds towards green investments and industry
support.
It has sparked
warnings that growth in Germany's already wobbling economy could get dragged
down next year and that projects and subsidies to keep its industry competitive
were now at risk.
The three parties
in Social Democrat (SPD) Scholz's uneasy coalition with the Greens and
pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) are trying to hammer out a solution to keep
as many spending pledges as possible - and make them legally compliant.
Their options include
drawing up a supplementary budget for 2023 and suspending Germany's
self-imposed debt brake before reinstating it for next year.
"Our goal is
to discuss the budget quickly but with due care," said a joint statement
of ruling party lawmakers.
Speaking at a
joint news conference with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Berlin,
Scholz said a proposed budget would now be deliberated with a sense of urgency
in parliament, while still giving everyone time for careful checks.
The delay has heightened
uncertainty about spending in all areas of the German economy and meant the
2024 budget might not be concluded before the end of the year.
The government has
already imposed a freeze on most new spending commitments and blocked spending
from the 200 billion euro Economic Stabilisation Fund for this year.
Almost every item
of spending that has not yet been formally approved is up in the air. Among the
uncertainties is aid for Ukraine.
More
Germany
shelves 2024 budget talks as crisis deepens (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
WHO asks China for
details on outbreaks of respiratory illness
November 23, 2023 5:45 AM GMT
Nov 23 (Reuters) - The World Health
Organization (WHO) has asked China for details on an increase in respiratory illnesses
and reported clusters of pneumonia in children, which its China office on
Thursday called a "routine" check.
Chinese authorities from the National
Health Commission held a press conference on Nov. 13 to report an increase in
incidence of respiratory disease.
Authorities attributed the increase to
the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions and the circulation of known pathogens
such as influenza, mycoplasma pneumoniae, a common bacterial infection that
typically affects younger children, respiratory syncytial virus, and the virus
that causes COVID-19.
Both China and the WHO have faced
questions about the transparency of reporting on the earliest COVID-19 cases
that emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in late 2019.
On Wednesday, the WHO said groups
including the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases reported clusters of
undiagnosed pneumonia in children in north China. The WHO said it was not clear
if these were associated with an overall increase in respiratory infections
previously reported by Chinese authorities or separate events.
The WHO said it had asked for
additional epidemiologic and clinical information as well as laboratory results
from the reported outbreaks among children, through the International Health
Regulations mechanism.
It has also asked China for further
information about trends in the circulation of known pathogens and the burden
on health-care systems. The WHO said it was in contact with clinicians and
scientists through its existing technical partnerships and networks in China.
More
WHO asks China for details on outbreaks of respiratory illness | Reuters
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
New
software can predict EV battery fires before they happen: ‘[They] will quickly
be consigned to history’
November 23, 2023
A team of researchers claims to have artificial intelligence tech that can
catch electric vehicle battery
problems before they culminate in fires.
Battery fires, particularly in
common lithium-ion batteries, are one of the knocks against the cleaner rides.
Identifying problems in power packs beforehand could eliminate the risk, and
help to increase interest in a growing EV market.
The
researchers, who call themselves Eatronians, aren’t from a distant planet. Eatron
Technologies is based in the U.K. The tech they have developed, however,
certainly sounds advanced. It’s part of the company’s effort to unlock the
“full potential of batteries with intelligent software
for all vehicle and battery manufacturers worldwide.”
Eatron uses AI that works
“alongside your battery,” diagnosing problems as part of the company’s unique
battery management software, product manager Krzysztof Slósarczyk said in a video
clip on the company’s website.
Battery fires often result
from what the experts call a “thermal runaway,” a series of calamities inside
the power pack that can cause it to explode, per CNN.
“This process can be
triggered by a battery overheating, being punctured, or an electrical fault
like a short circuit,” Dylan Khoo, an analyst at tech intelligence firm ABI
Research, told the news
agency. “In cases where fires occur spontaneously while charging, it is likely
due to manufacturing defects.”
Eatron’s experts cite lithium
plating as the main culprit. This happens when the battery is charged quickly
at low temperatures, causing lithium deposits to form around the anode. If let
go, these deposits can cause a short circuit, according to the
company.
The company claims its
software can ID plating and other “degradation” with 90% accuracy and no
false positives.
“The reality is that EV
battery fires are incredibly rare, but even one is one too many,” Eatron CEO
Umut Genc said on the
company’s website. “As an industry, we need to ensure the number of
catastrophic battery failures reaches zero, and then stays there.”
There are already systems
that look for problems
during manufacturing. Eatron’s tech makes it possible to check the batteries
after they are in EVs.
Typically, the company claims, the batteries
had to be opened to find plating and other problems. The AI is essentially a
wellness screening, catching early warning signs.
Eatron experts envision EV owners
having the time to schedule a fire-saving fix at their convenience, thanks to
the early screening.
“Crucially, no matter how the
manufacturer chooses to respond, the failure has been avoided, and [battery
fires] will quickly be consigned to history,” Genc said on the company
website.
Another weekend and a great hope that the
pause in the Gaza war to free kidnaped hostages might be used by smarter heads
to bring the senseless human slaughter to an end. We can only hope for such an
outcome. Have a great weekend everyone, I will as I turn an unlikely 74 for a
commodities trader.
“If I had known I
was going to live this long, I’d have taken better care of myself.”
Anon.
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