Baltic Dry Index. 1523 +61 Brent Crude 84.62
Spot Gold 1973 US 2 Year Yield 4.93 +0.10
I knew something was wrong
somewhere, but I couldn’t spot it exactly. But if something was coming and I
didn’t know where from, I couldn’t be on my guard against it. That being the
case I’d better be out of the market.
Jesse Livermore.
In the stock casinos, more wobble. To this old dinosaur markets follower, something’s not right.
Why take on year-end stock casino risk when the
six month T. Bill yield is paying out 5.47 percent?
South Korea stocks dip 3% leading region’s
losses as traders parse China trade data, RBA rate hike
UPDATED MON, NOV 6 2023 10:35 PM EST
South Korean stocks fell 3%, leading losses in
the wider Asia-Pacific region as investors parse trade data coming out of
China, as well as a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
South Korea’s Kospi lost 3.12%,
easing off Monday’s gains when the index posted its best session since late
March 2020 after the country re-imposed a ban on short selling. The Kosdaq
dropped 1.03%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded
0.44% lower after the Australian central bank raised
its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, in line with
expectations.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 slipped
0.96% while the Topix shed 0.75%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
1.21%. Mainland China’s Shanghai
Composite dropped 0.24% and the Shenzhen Component dipped
0.47%.
Overnight
in the U.S., all three indexes eked out narrow gains to build on
last week’s strong rally. The Nasdaq
Composite jumped 0.3% to finish at 13,518.78, notching
its longest positive streak since January. The S&P 500 edged
up 0.18% to end at 4,365.98, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched
up 34.54 points, or 0.1%, to settle at 34,095.86.
Asia
stock markets: China trade data, RBA rate decision (cnbc.com)
Stock futures slip after Nasdaq registers 7-day
win streak: Live updates
UPDATED TUE, NOV 7 2023 12:50 AM
EST
Stock futures were lower on early Tuesday as
investors assess whether a rally on Wall Street can continue.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average dropped
61 points, or about 0.26%. S&P 500 futures
and Nasdaq 100 futures each
ticked down by roughly 0.2%.
Stocks eked out a gain during
regular trading on Monday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite earning
its seventh-straight positive session for the first time since January. Both
the S&P 500 and
the 30-stock Dow were
higher for the sixth-straight session, an occurrence not seen since June and
July, respectively.
Wall Street is assessing whether
the rally from last week holds water. All three indices wrapped their best week
in 2023 last Friday. The November uptick is in direct contrast to a weak
October in which the S&P 500 slipped into correction territory. Investors
grew optimistic after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged
following their meeting last week, which also saw Treasury yields slide and
stocks climb.
Investors should proceed with
caution, however, as stocks still have little footing to securely mount and
maintain a new bull market, according to Lisa Shalett, chief investment
officer, wealth management at Morgan Stanley.
“The next bull is coming, but it
will require more than just the wish, belief or even reality of a first Fed
rate cut,” Shalett wrote in a Monday note.
In economic developments, a
report on the U.S. trade deficit is expected on Tuesday morning. Elsewhere,
quarterly results from Disney, Wynn Resorts and Occidental Petroleum are
due out this week.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
UBS posts
bigger-than-expected quarterly loss as Credit Suisse integration costs pile up
UBS on
Tuesday reported a bigger-than-expected third-quarter net loss of $785 million
as it works to integrate fallen rival Credit Suisse.
Analysts polled by Reuters had
anticipated the Swiss banking giant would record quarterly net loss of $444
million in a company-compiled poll.
The loss was driven by $2 billion
in expenses related to the Credit Suisse integration, with the bank recording
an underlying operating profit before tax of $844 million.
UBS completed its takeover of its stricken domestic rival in
June and announced in August that it had ended
a 9 billion Swiss franc loss protection agreement and a 100
billion Swiss franc public liquidity backstop that were put in place when the
emergency rescue was agreed in March.
The bank’s
shares soared to their highest point since late 2008 in August after
its second quarter earnings results reported a $28.88 billion net profit as a
result of negative goodwill on the Credit Suisse acquisition.
Negative goodwill represents the
fair value of assets acquired in a merger over and above the purchase price.
UBS paid a discounted 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.33 billion) to acquire Credit
Suisse in March, in a deal mediated by Swiss authorities to prevent the
collapse of the storied
but scandal-plagued lender.
The stock price has since moderated
slightly, but remains up more than 27% on the year.
More
UBS q3 2023
earnings (cnbc.com)
In other news, China’s exports tumble, WeWork
doesn’t, and unsurprisingly, western tourists don’t want to holiday in the
Middle East.
China’s imports surprise with growth in
October, but exports fall more than expected
BEIJING — China
reported a worse-than-expected drop in exports in October, while imports
surprisingly rose for the month from a year ago.
China’s customs
agency said exports in U.S. dollar terms fell by 6.4% in October from a year
ago. That’s worse than the 3.3% drop predicted by a Reuters poll.
Imports rose by 3% in
U.S. dollar terms in October from a year ago. That’s in contrast to the
Reuters’ forecast for a 4.8% drop from a year ago.
However, China’s
imports from the U.S. were down by 3.7% in October versus the year ago period,
CNBC calculations of customs data showed.
China’s imports from
the European Union rose by more than 5%, while those from the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations grew by 10.2%, the analysis showed.
Overall, China’s exports have fallen on a
year-on-year basis every month this year starting in May. The last positive
print for imports on a year-on-year basis was in September last year.
China’s exports to Southeast Asia
and the European Union fell by double digits in October, according to CNBC
calculations of official data. Exports to the U.S. dropped by more than 8%, the
analysis showed.
By product, China’s crude oil
imports rose by both volume and value, but that of rare earths fell.
Shoe and toy exports fell, while
smartphone and home appliance exports rose. China’s auto exports continued to
grow by double-digits in October, but at a sharply slower pace — 50%
year-on-year vs. more
than 60% in prior months.
Lackluster global demand for
Chinese goods and muted
domestic demand have dragged down China’s overall trade.
The world’s second-largest economy
reported 4.9% growth in gross domestic product in the third quarter, beating
expectations and keeping China on track for its official target of around 5%
growth this year.
More
China trade data for October 2023 (cnbc.com)
WeWork, once valued at $47 billion, files
for bankruptcy
Office-sharing company WeWork filed
for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New Jersey federal court Monday, saying
that it had entered into agreements with the vast majority of its secured note
holders and that it intended to trim “non-operational” leases.
The bankruptcy filing is limited to
WeWork’s locations in the U.S. and Canada, the company said in a press release.
The company reported liabilities ranging from $10 billion to $50 billion,
according to a bankruptcy filing.
“I am deeply grateful for the
support of our financial stakeholders as we work together to strengthen our
capital structure and expedite this process through the Restructuring Support
Agreement,” WeWork CEO David Tolley said in a press release. “We remain
committed to investing in our products, services, and world-class team of
employees to support our community.
WeWork has suffered one of the most spectacular
corporate collapses in recent U.S. history over the past few years. Valued in
2019 at $47 billion in a round led by Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank, the company
tried and failed to go public five years ago.
The pandemic caused further pain as
many companies abruptly ended their leases, and the economic slump that
followed led even more clients to close their doors.
It disclosed in an August
regulatory filing that bankruptcy
could be a concern.
WeWork debuted through a special
purpose acquisition company in 2021 but has since lost about
98% of its value. The company in mid-August announced a
1-for-40 reverse stock split to get its shares trading back above $1, a
requirement for keeping its New York Stock Exchange listing.
WeWork shares had fallen to a low
of about 10 cents and were trading at about 83 cents before the stock was
halted Monday.
Former CEO and co-founder Adam
Neumann said that the filing was “disappointing.”
More
WeWork
files for bankruptcy (cnbc.com)
Travelers put off
holiday trips to Middle East as Israel-Hamas war rages
By Doyinsola Oladipo and Joanna
Plucinska November 6, 2023 11:07 AM GMT
NEW YORK/LONDON,
Nov 6 (Reuters) - Travelers are canceling or postponing planned vacations to
the Middle East and North Africa due to fears of the Israel-Hamas conflict
worsening, and as touring companies have also altered itineraries and canceled
flights.
Leisure travel
demand to the region was hit after Israel said the Palestinian Islamist group
Hamas killed 1,400 people in southern Israel on Oct. 7, and Israel responded
with air and ground strikes on Gaza that Palestinian authorities say have
killed more than 9,000.
Major airlines
extended temporary halts on flights into Israel through the end of the year
while cruise operators are shifting itineraries to avoid neighboring countries
as well. Travel operators say the war is affecting demand for travel to nearby
nations including Egypt, Jordan and Turkey.
"We are
seeing clients cancel cruises like an Egypt Nile river cruise as far out as
December 2024 due to concerns with the war," said Todd Elliott, CEO of
Orlando, Florida-based Cruise Vacation Outlet, a travel agency.
Cruise
operator Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings told investors on Wednesday that it
was seeing
a rise in cancellations and a slowdown in
bookings to the region, primarily in short-term reservations. Both Norwegian
and Royal Caribbean Group (RCL.N) changed
their 2024 itineraries to avoid ports in
Israel.
Washington-based
startup booking platform @Hotel said it has seen a 70% decline in new bookings
for countries in the region. Over 40% of trips to Egypt in November and
December have already been canceled on the platform, said CEO Konrad
Waliszewski.
More
Travelers put off holiday trips to Middle East as Israel-Hamas war rages | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Euro zone economy
started Q4 on back foot
By Jonathan Cable November 6, 202310:46 AM GMT
LONDON, Nov 6
(Reuters) - The downturn in euro zone business activity accelerated last month
as demand in the dominant services industry weakened further, a survey showed
on Monday, suggesting there is a growing chance of a recession in the
20-country currency union.
The economy contracted 0.1% in the third quarter, official data
has shown, and Monday's final Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for
October indicated the bloc entered the final quarter of 2023 on the back foot.
HCOB's PMI,
compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good guide of overall economic health,
fell to 46.5 in October from September's 47.2, its lowest reading since
November 2020 when COVID-19 restrictions were tightened on much of the
continent.
That was below
the 50 mark separating growth from contraction for a fifth consecutive month
and matched a preliminary estimate.
"Final PMIs
released today confirmed the preliminary estimates and are consistent with our
forecast that euro-zone GDP will contract again in Q4," said Adrian
Prettejohn at Capital Economics.
"The outlook
also looks very weak, with the new orders PMI falling to its lowest level since
September 2012, excluding the early pandemic months, while exports were also
particularly weak."
Manufacturing
activity took a further step back in
October, according to a sister survey last week which showed new orders
contracted at one of the steepest rates since the data was first collected in
1997.
It was a similar
picture for services and the new business index, a gauge of demand, was its
lowest since early 2021 as indebted consumers feeling the pinch from price
rises and increased borrowing costs kept their hands in their pockets.
More
Euro zone economy started Q4 on back foot | Reuters
Indonesia economy
posts slowest growth in two years as exports fall
By Stefanno
Sulaiman and Gayatri Suroyo November 6, 20239:32 AM GMT
JAKARTA, Nov 6
(Reuters) - Indonesia's economy logged solid growth in the third quarter,
although it slowed more than expected to its weakest in two years as exports
shrank and household spending softened.
Gross domestic
product grew 4.94% annually in the July-September quarter, below the 5.17%
growth logged in the second quarter, and short of the 5.05% predicted by
economists.
Economists widely
expect Southeast Asia's largest economy to cool this year due to a slew of
domestic interest rate hikes, falling commodity prices and weakening global
growth.
A surprise rate
hike from Bank Indonesia last month, aimed at defending the falling rupiah
currency, has taken total rate increases since last year to 250 basis points.
"While a
sub-5% rate is still quite good, this serves as a warning for our monetary
authority to not be too aggressive with rate hikes," said Maybank
Indonesia economist Myrdal Gunarto, who expects one more rate hike of 25 bps.
Despite the
disappointing GDP data, the rupiah on Monday extended gains to trade 1.3% up
from the previous day's close as the U.S. dollar softened.
For the current
quarter, spending on election campaigns and the government's recent increase in
the welfare budget will provide some cushion, said Joshua Pardede, chief
economist at Bank Permata, predicting full-year 2023 growth at 5.07%.
The government
last month launched a policy package that included a tax cut for homebuyers, an
extension of rice handouts and additional cash handouts. Presidential
candidates and political parties will start campaigning for the Feb. 14 general
elections later this month.
In a news
conference after the GDP release, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said
the government will expand its tax break on property purchases to bolster
growth through to 2024.
She also revised
down slightly the official GDP outlook for all of 2023 to 5.04%, from 5.1% in
her previous forecast, with next year's growth seen at 5.24%.
That compares
with economic growth of 5.3% in 2022 - the highest level in nine years when
resource-rich Indonesia benefited from a global commodity boom.
In the
July-September period, the contraction in exports deepened to 4.26% from 2.97%
in the second quarter, with government spending also falling on a yearly basis.
Growth in
household spending, which represents over half of GDP, decelerated to 5.06%
from 5.22%.
The agriculture
sector was also hampered by drought brought on by the El Nino weather pattern,
the data showed. The impact of El Nino is expected to have peaked in October.
Indonesia economy posts slowest growth in two years as exports fall | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Sore Arm After
COVID-19 Vaccine Could Indicate Serious Complication: Doctor
The
arm pain is connected to heart-related conditions, which many experience after
injecting the COVID vaccine.
10/28/2023 Updated: 11/3/2023
Individuals
who experience a sore arm after taking a COVID-19 shot may be at risk of facing
cardiac issues, according to cardiologist Peter A. McCullough.
“I always ask patients if they had a sore
arm or more severe reaction within the few days of the shot. It may be a
harbinger of future cardiovascular serious adverse events, including
myocarditis and sudden cardiac death,” Dr. McCullough said in an Oct. 27
Substack post.
Myocarditis is an inflammation of a heart
muscle called myocardium, which can reduce the heart’s ability to pump blood.
Dr. McCullough cited a Sept. 19 study published in the Radiology journal, which states
that 458 out of the 700 participants, or 65.4 percent, reported pain in the arm
after COVID-19 vaccination.
“The
myocardial visual score was higher in patients who reported a sore arm compared
with those who did not,” the study said. The participants in the study were
“competitive and recreational athletes” from Italy.
---- A
November 2022 study cited by Dr. McCullough looked at
autopsy data from 25 individuals who had “died unexpectedly” within 20 days
after COVID-19 vaccination.
Five
individuals in the study received mRNA COVID-19 vaccines and died within a week
of taking the shots. Four people died after the first injection, while the
fifth died after the second dose.
In 80 percent
of mRNA vaccine recipients, the study identified “acute (epi-)myocarditis
without detection of another significant disease or health constellation that
may have caused an unexpected death.”
The researchers
discovered simultaneous vaccine-induced inflammation in the heart muscles and
deltoid muscles crowning the shoulder. In the heart, the inflammation was found
in the epicardium—the outermost protective layer of the organ located above the
myocardium.
“Myocarditis can be a potentially
lethal complication following mRNA-based anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination,” the
study concluded.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Japanese Scientists Reinvent Fuel Cells With Graphene
Breakthrough
A University of Tsukuba
research team has successfully developed a new method that can prevent the
crossover of large fuel molecules and suppress the degradation of electrodes in
advanced fuel cell technology using methanol or formic
acid.
The successful sieving of the fuel molecules is achieved via
selective proton transfers due to steric hindrance on holey graphene sheets
that have chemical functionalization and act as proton-exchange membranes.
For realizing carbon neutrality, the demand for the development of direct methanol/formic acid fuel cell technology has been increasing. In this technology, methanol or formic acid is used as an e-fuel for generating electricity. The fuel cells generate electricity via proton transfer; however, conventional proton-exchange membranes suffer from the “crossover phenomenon,” where the fuel molecules are also transferred between anodes and cathodes. Thereafter, the fuel molecules are unnecessarily oxidized and the electrodes are deactivated.
In this study, the researchers developed a new proton-exchange membrane comprising graphene sheets with 5-10 nm-diameter holes, which are chemically modified with sulfanilic functional groups affording sulfo groups around the holes. Owing to steric hindrance by the functional groups, the graphene membrane successfully suppresses the crossover phenomenon by blocking the penetration of the fuel molecules while maintaining high proton conductivity for the first time to the best of the team’s knowledge.
To date, conventional approaches for inhibiting fuel-molecule migration involved an increase of the membrane thickness or sandwiching two-dimensional materials, which in turn reduced the proton conductivity. In this study, the researchers investigated structures that inhibit the migration of fuel molecules through electro-osmotic drag and steric hindrance. That’s how they found that the sulfanilic-functionalized graphene membrane can remarkably suppress electrode degradation compared with the commercially-available Nafion membranes while maintaining the proton conductivity required for fuel cells.
Furthermore, simply pasting the
graphene membrane onto a conventional proton-exchange membrane can suppress the
crossover phenomenon. Thus, this study contributes to the development of
advanced fuel cells as a new alternative for hydrogen-type fuel cells.
***
While fuel cells are not fully mass market ready their potential simply from an efficiency standpoint is just outstanding. The fuel cell technology could mature to the point a few gallons of liquid fuel could propel a vehicle very far very efficiently.
Fuel energizing a fuel cell making electricity sent to a motor would be elegantly simple and offer quite a lot of power and tremendous range.
Fuel cell power might be the only successful way to electrify a large part of the transportation fleet.
The progress continues, but there is
still a quite way to go.
Japanese Scientists Reinvent Fuel Cells With Graphene
Breakthrough | OilPrice.com
I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There
can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the
stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never
forgotten that.
Jesse Livermore.
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