Baltic Dry Index. 2102 +247 Brent Crude 80.58
Spot Gold 2001 U S 2 Year Yield 4.92 +0.03
"Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody."
Alan Greenspan.
The big event this weekend is whether the Gaza War “Pause”
holds and leads to the release of all hostages, and eventually helps lead to a real
peace solution in the Middle East.
For those following the AI chaos at OpenAI, scroll down to the last section’s AI YouTube. Did AI just become AGI?
In stock casino news, the on and off Santa Claus rally is back on again. Next week time to dress up the month-end index closes again, sort of an early money manager boost to the Christmas bonuses.
Look away from rising credit card defaults, rising auto loan defaults and a fast growing commercial real estate debt crisis now. Look away from that rising gold price too.
European markets close mostly higher after hitting nine-week high
November
24, 2023
European stocks closed higher Friday as the
Stoxx 600 index crept up on the final trading day of the week.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index
closed up provisionally 0.4% Friday, while sectors were a mixed bag. Chemicals
stocks rose about 0.9% while tech shares slipped 0.1%.
Oil futures traded higher after
the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced its delayed
meeting would be held virtually on Nov. 30.
The Stoxx has seen muted moves
this week, though has nudged higher to reach its highest level since Sept. 20.
Final German gross domestic product figures for the
third quarter on Friday confirmed an earlier reading of 0.1% month-on-month
contraction. GDP was down 0.8% on the previous year.
Asia-Pacific markets traded
mixed, with Japanese data boosting the Nikkei 225 index,
while Hong Kong’s Hang
Seng index plunged 1.77%.
Europe
markets open to close: FTSE 100, CAC 40, DAX (cnbc.com)
Dow
closes 100 points higher Friday as major averages rise for a 4th straight week:
Live updates
UPDATED FRI, NOV 24 2023 1:25 PM EST
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
on Friday, as the major averages notched a four-week winning streak.
The 30-stock Dow rose
117.12 points, or 0.33%, to 35,390.15. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 ticked
higher by 0.06% to end at 4,559.34. The Nasdaq Composite fell
0.11%, closing at 14,250.85.
Major retail shares rose slightly
as Black Friday kicked off the holiday shopping season. Walmart and
Target rose 0.9% and 0.74%, respectively, while Amazon ticked
higher by 0.02%.
“Based on our checks, we forecast
flat traffic trends this Black Friday as a budget-conscious consumer pulls back
and prioritizes gifts for others vs. self,” wrote TD Cowen retail analyst
Oliver Chen in a note.
For the week, the Dow gained
1.27%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1%. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.89% in
that time. It’s the fourth consecutive positive week for the major averages —
the longest for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since June. The Dow, meanwhile,
hasn’t posted a weekly run this long since April.
The moves come as Treasury yields
this week hit multimonth lows on hope inflation is cooling and the Federal
Reserve may be done raising rates. The benchmark rate was up 6 basis points at
around 4.476% on Friday.
“The market’s expectation for the
volatility of interest rates is continuing to collapse,” said Scott Ladner,
chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That’s telling us that the
market is coming on board finally with this idea that ... 4% to 5% rates is the
right level for 2024 across the curve, that the equity market can handle.”″
The U.S. stock market closed at 1
p.m. On Wednesday, the major averages closed higher after the 10-year Treasury
yield fell to levels not seen since September.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news, fiat money isn’t working like it
used to.
Turkey’s central bank hikes interest rate by 500 basis points to 40%, well above expectations
Turkey’s central bank on Thursday hiked its key interest rate, the benchmark
one-week repo rate, by another 500 basis points to 40%.
The hike was double economists’ expectations, who had
forecast a 250-basis-point hike.
The move was seen as a continuation of the bank’s attempt to
combat high inflation and a falling lira,
the Turkish currency. Inflation in the country came in at a whopping 61% in
October.
The lira was
trading at 28.766 to the dollar following the news, slightly stronger against
the greenback.
Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset
Management, was one of the few experts who expected a 500-basis-point hike.
“Really impressive move by the CBRT [Central Bank of the
Republic of Turkey] - probing their orthodoxy and getting well ahead of
expectations,” he said in a note.
“These guys and girls are serious about fighting inflation,”
he added. “We need to give them credit for that.”
The central bank decision follows a series of interest rate
increases that have been painful for Turks, as the country aims to turn around
several years of skyrocketing inflation and a dramatically weakened currency —
in large part the result of stubbornly loose monetary policy by the Ankara
government.
The lira is down 35% against the dollar year to date and has
lost more than 80% of its value against the greenback over the last five
years.
Turkey's
central bank hikes interest rate by 500 basis points to 40% (cnbc.com)
Argentina's Milei says shutting
central bank 'non-negotiable'
November 24, 2023 2:25
PM GMT
BUENOS AIRES, Nov 24
(Reuters) - Argentina's President-elect Javier Milei said on Friday that the
closure of the country's central bank, a signature campaign pledge, was a
"non-negotiable matter", according to a statement from his office
posted on social media platform X.
The comments, in response
to what he called "false rumors", come as the outsider libertarian
economist races to put together his team ahead of taking office on Dec. 10,
with some signs that he is picking a more moderate Cabinet that expected.
Argentina's social security
administration ANSES, a key institution given Milei's pledge to slash state
spending and subsidies, will be lead by economist Osvaldo Giordano from the key
central Cordoba region, the statement added.
That marks a shift from a previous
plan that Milei would appoint a close ally to lead the administration.
Horacio Marin, a
private energy sector executive, was also confirmed as the incoming chief of
state oil company YPF.
Milei faces major hurdles
to implement his more radical reform plans, which include dollarizing the
economy, shutting the central bank and privatizing state companies like YPF,
which will take time if they can be done at all.
His libertarian coalition
has a limited number of seats in Congress and no provincial governors. Milei
also has to juggle demands from the more mainstream conservative bloc, whose
public backing was key to him winning the run-off election last week.
Argentina's
Milei says shutting central bank 'non-negotiable' | Reuters
Nigeria cenbank to tighten policy to curb inflation, asks
banks to boost capital
By Chijioke Ohuocha and Elisha Bala-Gbogbo November 24,
2023 11:13 PM GMT
ABUJA, Nov 24
(Reuters) - Nigeria's central bank will tighten its policy over the next two
quarters to manage inflation, while directing banks to boost capital to support
an expansion of the economy, its new governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said on Friday.
Cardoso,
who took over the reins in September, faces immediate pressure to curb excess
liquidity in the banking system and tackle inflation, which has risen for 10
consecutive months, reaching 27.33% in October (NGCPIY=ECI) , the highest in
about 18 years.
Outlining his
policy thrust, Cardoso told bankers that Nigeria could grow in size to $1
trillion over the next seven years and that lenders required extra capital to
play in a bigger economy.
Nigeria's
$240 billion economy recorded third quarter growth of 2.5%
on Friday, barely changed from the previous quarter, as its loss-making
dominant oil sector contracted at a much slower pace while government reforms
were yet to take effect.
More
Nigeria
cenbank to tighten policy to curb inflation, asks banks to boost capital |
Reuters
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
This weekend, Fiat Money. Fiat – Latin
meaning determined by authority, i.e. not backed by anything, gold, silver,
cigarettes, seashells, silk.
“At the end fiat money returns to its
inner value—zero.”
Voltaire.
Fiat money
Fiat money is a type of currency that
is not backed by a commodity, such
as gold or silver. It is
typically designated by the issuing government to be legal
tender, and is authorized by government regulation. Since the end of
the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the major
currencies in the world are fiat money.
Fiat money generally does not have intrinsic value and
does not have use value. It has
value only because the individuals who use it as a unit of account – or,
in the case of currency, a medium of exchange – agree on its value.[1] They
trust that it will be accepted by merchants and other people as a means of
payment for liabilities.
Fiat money is an alternative to commodity
money, which is a currency that has intrinsic value because it
contains, for example, a precious metal such as gold or silver which is
embedded in the coin. Fiat also differs from representative money, which is money that has
intrinsic value because it is backed by and can be converted into a precious
metal or another commodity. Fiat money can look similar to representative money
(such as paper bills), but the former has no backing, while the latter represents
a claim on a commodity (which can be redeemed to a greater or lesser extent).[2][3][a]
Government-issued fiat money banknotes were used first during the
13th century in China.[4] Fiat
money started to predominate during the 20th century. Since President
Richard Nixon's decision to suspend US dollar convertibility to gold in
1971, a system of national fiat currencies has been used globally.
Fiat money can be:
·
Any money that is not backed by a commodity.
·
Money declared by a person, institution or government to
be legal
tender,[5] meaning
that it must be accepted in payment of a debt in specific circumstances.[6]
·
State-issued money which is neither convertible through a central
bank to anything else nor fixed in value in terms of any
objective standard.[7]
·
Money used because of government decree.[2]
·
An otherwise non-valuable object that serves as a medium of
exchange[8] (also
known as fiduciary money).[9]
The term fiat derives from the Latin word fiat, meaning "let it be
done"[b] used
in the sense of an order, decree[2] or
resolution.
----China has a long history with paper money,
beginning in the 7th century CE. During the 11th century, the government
established a monopoly on its issuance, and about the end of the 12th century,
convertibility was suspended.[16] The
use of such money became widespread during the subsequent Yuan and Ming dynasties.[17]
The Song
Dynasty in China was the first to issue paper money, jiaozi, about
the 10th century CE. Although the notes were valued at a certain exchange rate
for gold, silver, or silk, conversion was never allowed in practice. The notes
were initially to be redeemed after three years' service, to be replaced by new
notes for a 3% service charge, but, as more of them were printed without notes
being retired, inflation became evident. The government made several attempts
to maintain the value of the paper money by demanding taxes partly in currency
and making other laws, but the damage had been done, and the notes became
disfavored.[18]
The succeeding Yuan Dynasty was the first dynasty of
China to use paper currency as the predominant circulating medium. The founder
of the Yuan Dynasty, Kublai
Khan, issued paper money known as Jiaochao during
his reign. The original notes during the Yuan Dynasty were restricted in area
and duration as in the Song Dynasty.
During the 13th century, Marco Polo described the fiat money of
the Yuan
Dynasty in his book The Travels of Marco Polo:[19][20]
All these pieces of paper are issued with as much solemnity and
authority as if they were of pure gold or silver... and indeed everybody takes
them readily, for wheresoever a person may go throughout the Great Kaan's
dominions he shall find these pieces of paper current, and shall be able to
transact all sales and purchases of goods by means of them just as well as if
they were coins of pure gold.
— Marco Polo, The Travels of Marco
Polo
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Drugs identified that may reverse brain fog caused by
COVID-19
Paul McClure November
22, 2023
Experimenting on lab-grown mini-brains and
mice, researchers have found that SARS-CoV-19 infection can cause ‘zombie’
cells to accumulate, contributing to the brain fog associated with long COVID,
and have identified drugs that can reverse this virus-related premature aging.
Although it’s primarily a respiratory viral
pathogen, in the post-acute phase SARS-CoV-2 has been shown to produce a range
of neurological complications. Long COVID, often associated with cognitive
impairment or brain fog, is one notable complication that is supported by ample
evidence of significant structural changes in the brains of patients with
COVID-19.
While the role of senescent or ‘zombie’ cells –
cells that have stopped dividing – in driving neurodegenerative diseases and
the cognitive decline seen in aging is supported by research, their
contribution to COVID-related brain aging is unknown. This prompted researchers
from the University of Queensland’s (UQ) Australian Institute for
Bioengineering and Nanotechnology (AIBN) to study the effect of different
SARS-CoV-2 variants on brain tissue and search for drugs that might reverse the
process.
“We found COVID-19 accelerates the presence of
‘zombie’ or senescent cells, which accumulate naturally and gradually in the
brain as we get older,” said Julio Aguado, lead and corresponding author of the
study. “Senescent cells are known to drive tissue inflammation and
degeneration, leaving patients exposed to cognitive impairments like brain fog
and memory loss.”
The researchers hypothesized that
SARS-CoV-2-induced senescence in the brain was associated with the
neuroinflammatory effects of the virus during the acute phase. To test their
hypothesis, they analyzed the brains of patients who’d died following severe
COVID-19 or from non-infectious, non-neurological causes. They found an over
sevenfold number of p16 protein-positive cells in the brains of COVID-19
patients compared to controls. Cellular senescence is often characterized by
the expression of p16, and the findings suggested a potential role for
SARS-CoV-2 in triggering cellular senescence, which could contribute to
cognitive decline and accelerate the neurodegenerative processes associated
with long COVID.
The researchers then generated brain organoids,
lab-made mini-brain models, from embryonic stem cells and physiologically aged
the organoids for eight months before testing the efficacy of senolytics or
drugs that clear away senescent cells.
They identified four drugs that selectively
eliminated senescent cells: navitoclax, ABT-737, fisetin, and a combination of
dasatinib and quercetin (D+Q). Navitoclax and ABT-737 inhibit the Bcl-2
protein, which induces apoptosis or programmed cell death in senescent cells.
Fisetin and D+Q pass through the blood-brain barrier and clear senescent cells
from the brain. The aged organoids were exposed to two doses (one every two
weeks) of either navitoclax, ABT-737, or D+Q, after which they were subjected
to bulk RNA sequencing analysis.
Compared to navitoclax and ABT-737, D+Q had a
more broad-spectrum effect, mitigating multiple proinflammatory pathways characteristic
of cellular senescence. In addition to acting as a senolytic, D+Q treatment on
nine-month-old organoids reverted their gene expression age to levels
comparable to eight-month-old counterparts. Gene expression changes caused by
D+Q treatment were positively correlated with characteristics of
lifespan-extending interventions such as caloric restriction, indicating the
drug’s health-promoting role in targeting cellular senescence. In short, the
treatment rejuvenated the organoids’ brain tissue.
More
Drugs identified that may reverse brain fog caused by
COVID-19 (newatlas.com)
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Arizona
solar canal project aims to save water while making power
Loz Blain November 23, 2023
With most
of Arizona in a state of moderate to extreme drought, the Gila River Indian
Community and the US Army Corps of Engineers have signed a deal to begin a
solar-over-canal project designed to cut down evaporation and boost solar
efficiency.
With a
similar project planned for California still yet to get started, the
US$6.74-million project becomes the first of its kind to begin construction in
the USA. The first phase aims to build solar photovoltaic shades stretching
across the 1-10 Level Top canal for a length of around 1,000 ft (305 m).
The
benefits of this simple idea could be significant. Not only will the solar
panels generate up to one megawatt of power for the Gila River Indian
Community, they'll also provide shade for the water below, helping keep water
in the canals rather than letting the baking desert heat evaporate it away.
Viewed as a solar farm, it should be considerably cheaper, since no land needs
to be acquired.
Furthermore,
the water will help cool the panels, increasing their efficiency and creating a
~3% boost to power production, according to Professor Roger Bales, who wrote
about the California project for The
Conversation in 2022. In a study published in 2021,
Bales and his team argued that "covering all 4,000 miles of California’s
canals with solar panels would save
more than 65 billion gallons of water annually by reducing evaporation," while generating up to
13 GW of renewable energy in a distributed fashion that could cut down on
transmission losses.
The new
Arizona project is scheduled for completion in 2025.
----While
this will be the first project of its kind in the USA, something similar has
already been built overseas. The Canal Solar Power Project in Gujarat, India,
began in 2012, and by 2015, it had a megawatt-scale pilot project complete and operating, covering about a stretch of canal about
750 m (2,460 ft) long.
More
Arizona solar canal project aims to save water while
making power (newatlas.com)
This weekend’s music
diversion. Yet another Fandango this one by Padre Soler. Compare and contrast
with Boccherini’s more famous version. Both approx. 10 minutes.
SOLER
ANTONIO 1729 1783 Fandango L'Arpeggiata, Christina PLUHAR
SOLER ANTONIO 1729 1783 Fandango L'Arpeggiata,
Christina PLUHAR - YouTube
Boccherini-Quintetto
n. 4 G 448 - Fandango (III-parte II)
Boccherini-Quintetto n. 4 G 448 - Fandango (III-parte
II) - YouTube
This weekend’s chess
update. Approx. 11 minutes.
We
Are Spoiled With Incredible Games!
We Are Spoiled With Incredible Games! - YouTube
No
weekend the math’s update again this week. This week, Corn in the USA Maize nearly
everywhere else. Approx. 12 minutes.
Why
The U.S. Government Is (Still) Obsessed With Corn
Why The U.S. Government Is (Still) Obsessed With Corn
- YouTube
Finally, for
the geeks who occasionally browse the weekend LIR. Did AI just turn into AGI
back in September? (Artificial General/Generative Intelligence.) What does it
mean for the rest of us this decade, if it did?
How long before AGI can tell me how to make a nuclear bomb in my garden
shed?
Approx. 20
very interesting minutes.
BREAKING:
OpenAI INSIDER Drops BOMBSHELL "AGI Achieved"
BREAKING:
OpenAI INSIDER Drops BOMBSHELL "AGI Achieved" - YouTube
“The modern banking process
manufactures currency out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most
astounding piece of slight hand that was ever invented…If you want to be slaves
of the bankers, and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let the banks create
currency”.
Lord Josiah Stamp, Former Director of the Bank of England (1937)
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