Saturday, 25 November 2023

Special Update 25/11/2023 Fiat Money’s Not Working Like it Used To.

Baltic Dry Index. 2102 +247         Brent Crude 80.58

Spot Gold 2001              U S 2 Year Yield 4.92 +0.03   

"Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody."

Alan Greenspan.

The big event this weekend is whether the Gaza War “Pause” holds and leads to the release of all hostages, and eventually helps lead to a real peace solution in the Middle East.

For those following the AI chaos at OpenAI, scroll down to the last section’s AI YouTube. Did AI just become AGI?

In stock casino news, the on and off Santa Claus rally is back on again. Next week time to dress up the month-end index closes again, sort of an early money manager boost to the Christmas bonuses.

Look away from rising credit card defaults, rising auto loan defaults and a fast growing commercial real estate debt crisis now. Look away from that rising gold price too.

European markets close mostly higher after hitting nine-week high

November 24, 2023

European stocks closed higher Friday as the Stoxx 600 index crept up on the final trading day of the week.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up provisionally 0.4% Friday, while sectors were a mixed bag. Chemicals stocks rose about 0.9% while tech shares slipped 0.1%.

Oil futures traded higher after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced its delayed meeting would be held virtually on Nov. 30.

The Stoxx has seen muted moves this week, though has nudged higher to reach its highest level since Sept. 20.

Final German gross domestic product figures for the third quarter on Friday confirmed an earlier reading of 0.1% month-on-month contraction. GDP was down 0.8% on the previous year.

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed, with Japanese data boosting the Nikkei 225 index, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index plunged 1.77%.

Europe markets open to close: FTSE 100, CAC 40, DAX (cnbc.com) 

Dow closes 100 points higher Friday as major averages rise for a 4th straight week: Live updates

UPDATED FRI, NOV 24 2023 1:25 PM EST

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Friday, as the major averages notched a four-week winning streak.

The 30-stock Dow rose 117.12 points, or 0.33%, to 35,390.15. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 ticked higher by 0.06% to end at 4,559.34. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.11%, closing at 14,250.85.

Major retail shares rose slightly as Black Friday kicked off the holiday shopping season. Walmart and Target rose 0.9% and 0.74%, respectively, while Amazon ticked higher by 0.02%.

“Based on our checks, we forecast flat traffic trends this Black Friday as a budget-conscious consumer pulls back and prioritizes gifts for others vs. self,” wrote TD Cowen retail analyst Oliver Chen in a note.

For the week, the Dow gained 1.27%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1%. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.89% in that time. It’s the fourth consecutive positive week for the major averages — the longest for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since June. The Dow, meanwhile, hasn’t posted a weekly run this long since April.

The moves come as Treasury yields this week hit multimonth lows on hope inflation is cooling and the Federal Reserve may be done raising rates. The benchmark rate was up 6 basis points at around 4.476% on Friday.

“The market’s expectation for the volatility of interest rates is continuing to collapse,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That’s telling us that the market is coming on board finally with this idea that ... 4% to 5% rates is the right level for 2024 across the curve, that the equity market can handle.”″

The U.S. stock market closed at 1 p.m. On Wednesday, the major averages closed higher after the 10-year Treasury yield fell to levels not seen since September.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

In other news, fiat money isn’t working like it used to.

Turkey’s central bank hikes interest rate by 500 basis points to 40%, well above expectations

Turkey’s central bank on Thursday hiked its key interest rate, the benchmark one-week repo rate, by another 500 basis points to 40%.

The hike was double economists’ expectations, who had forecast a 250-basis-point hike.

The move was seen as a continuation of the bank’s attempt to combat high inflation and a falling lira, the Turkish currency. Inflation in the country came in at a whopping 61% in October.

The lira was trading at 28.766 to the dollar following the news, slightly stronger against the greenback.

Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, was one of the few experts who expected a 500-basis-point hike.

“Really impressive move by the CBRT [Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey] - probing their orthodoxy and getting well ahead of expectations,” he said in a note.

“These guys and girls are serious about fighting inflation,” he added. “We need to give them credit for that.”

The central bank decision follows a series of interest rate increases that have been painful for Turks, as the country aims to turn around several years of skyrocketing inflation and a dramatically weakened currency — in large part the result of stubbornly loose monetary policy by the Ankara government.

The lira is down 35% against the dollar year to date and has lost more than 80% of its value against the greenback over the last five years. 

Turkey's central bank hikes interest rate by 500 basis points to 40% (cnbc.com)

Argentina's Milei says shutting central bank 'non-negotiable'

November 24, 2023 2:25 PM GMT

BUENOS AIRES, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Argentina's President-elect Javier Milei said on Friday that the closure of the country's central bank, a signature campaign pledge, was a "non-negotiable matter", according to a statement from his office posted on social media platform X.

The comments, in response to what he called "false rumors", come as the outsider libertarian economist races to put together his team ahead of taking office on Dec. 10, with some signs that he is picking a more moderate Cabinet that expected.

Argentina's social security administration ANSES, a key institution given Milei's pledge to slash state spending and subsidies, will be lead by economist Osvaldo Giordano from the key central Cordoba region, the statement added.

That marks a shift from a previous plan that Milei would appoint a close ally to lead the administration.

Horacio Marin, a private energy sector executive, was also confirmed as the incoming chief of state oil company YPF.

Milei faces major hurdles to implement his more radical reform plans, which include dollarizing the economy, shutting the central bank and privatizing state companies like YPF, which will take time if they can be done at all.

His libertarian coalition has a limited number of seats in Congress and no provincial governors. Milei also has to juggle demands from the more mainstream conservative bloc, whose public backing was key to him winning the run-off election last week.

Argentina's Milei says shutting central bank 'non-negotiable' | Reuters

Nigeria cenbank to tighten policy to curb inflation, asks banks to boost capital

By Chijioke Ohuocha and Elisha Bala-Gbogbo

ABUJA, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Nigeria's central bank will tighten its policy over the next two quarters to manage inflation, while directing banks to boost capital to support an expansion of the economy, its new governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said on Friday.

Cardoso, who took over the reins in September, faces immediate pressure to curb excess liquidity in the banking system and tackle inflation, which has risen for 10 consecutive months, reaching 27.33% in October (NGCPIY=ECI) , the highest in about 18 years.

Outlining his policy thrust, Cardoso told bankers that Nigeria could grow in size to $1 trillion over the next seven years and that lenders required extra capital to play in a bigger economy.

Nigeria's $240 billion economy recorded third quarter growth of 2.5% on Friday, barely changed from the previous quarter, as its loss-making dominant oil sector contracted at a much slower pace while government reforms were yet to take effect.

More

Nigeria cenbank to tighten policy to curb inflation, asks banks to boost capital | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.   

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

This weekend, Fiat Money. Fiat – Latin meaning determined by authority, i.e. not backed by anything, gold, silver, cigarettes, seashells, silk.

“At the end fiat money returns to its inner value—zero.”

Voltaire.

Fiat money

Fiat money is a type of currency that is not backed by a commodity, such as gold or silver. It is typically designated by the issuing government to be legal tender, and is authorized by government regulation. Since the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the major currencies in the world are fiat money.

Fiat money generally does not have intrinsic value and does not have use value. It has value only because the individuals who use it as a unit of account – or, in the case of currency, a medium of exchange – agree on its value.[1] They trust that it will be accepted by merchants and other people as a means of payment for liabilities.

Fiat money is an alternative to commodity money, which is a currency that has intrinsic value because it contains, for example, a precious metal such as gold or silver which is embedded in the coin. Fiat also differs from representative money, which is money that has intrinsic value because it is backed by and can be converted into a precious metal or another commodity. Fiat money can look similar to representative money (such as paper bills), but the former has no backing, while the latter represents a claim on a commodity (which can be redeemed to a greater or lesser extent).[2][3][a]

Government-issued fiat money banknotes were used first during the 13th century in China.[4] Fiat money started to predominate during the 20th century. Since President Richard Nixon's decision to suspend US dollar convertibility to gold in 1971, a system of national fiat currencies has been used globally.

Fiat money can be:

·         Any money that is not backed by a commodity.

·         Money declared by a person, institution or government to be legal tender,[5] meaning that it must be accepted in payment of a debt in specific circumstances.[6]

·         State-issued money which is neither convertible through a central bank to anything else nor fixed in value in terms of any objective standard.[7]

·         Money used because of government decree.[2]

·         An otherwise non-valuable object that serves as a medium of exchange[8] (also known as fiduciary money).[9]

The term fiat derives from the Latin word fiat, meaning "let it be done"[b] used in the sense of an order, decree[2] or resolution.

----China has a long history with paper money, beginning in the 7th century CE. During the 11th century, the government established a monopoly on its issuance, and about the end of the 12th century, convertibility was suspended.[16] The use of such money became widespread during the subsequent Yuan and Ming dynasties.[17]

The Song Dynasty in China was the first to issue paper money, jiaozi, about the 10th century CE. Although the notes were valued at a certain exchange rate for gold, silver, or silk, conversion was never allowed in practice. The notes were initially to be redeemed after three years' service, to be replaced by new notes for a 3% service charge, but, as more of them were printed without notes being retired, inflation became evident. The government made several attempts to maintain the value of the paper money by demanding taxes partly in currency and making other laws, but the damage had been done, and the notes became disfavored.[18]

The succeeding Yuan Dynasty was the first dynasty of China to use paper currency as the predominant circulating medium. The founder of the Yuan Dynasty, Kublai Khan, issued paper money known as Jiaochao during his reign. The original notes during the Yuan Dynasty were restricted in area and duration as in the Song Dynasty.

During the 13th century, Marco Polo described the fiat money of the Yuan Dynasty in his book The Travels of Marco Polo:[19][20]

All these pieces of paper are issued with as much solemnity and authority as if they were of pure gold or silver... and indeed everybody takes them readily, for wheresoever a person may go throughout the Great Kaan's dominions he shall find these pieces of paper current, and shall be able to transact all sales and purchases of goods by means of them just as well as if they were coins of pure gold.

— Marco Polo, The Travels of Marco Polo

More

Fiat money - Wikipedia

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Drugs identified that may reverse brain fog caused by COVID-19

Paul McClure  November 22, 2023

Experimenting on lab-grown mini-brains and mice, researchers have found that SARS-CoV-19 infection can cause ‘zombie’ cells to accumulate, contributing to the brain fog associated with long COVID, and have identified drugs that can reverse this virus-related premature aging.

Although it’s primarily a respiratory viral pathogen, in the post-acute phase SARS-CoV-2 has been shown to produce a range of neurological complications. Long COVID, often associated with cognitive impairment or brain fog, is one notable complication that is supported by ample evidence of significant structural changes in the brains of patients with COVID-19.

While the role of senescent or ‘zombie’ cells – cells that have stopped dividing – in driving neurodegenerative diseases and the cognitive decline seen in aging is supported by research, their contribution to COVID-related brain aging is unknown. This prompted researchers from the University of Queensland’s (UQ) Australian Institute for Bioengineering and Nanotechnology (AIBN) to study the effect of different SARS-CoV-2 variants on brain tissue and search for drugs that might reverse the process.

“We found COVID-19 accelerates the presence of ‘zombie’ or senescent cells, which accumulate naturally and gradually in the brain as we get older,” said Julio Aguado, lead and corresponding author of the study. “Senescent cells are known to drive tissue inflammation and degeneration, leaving patients exposed to cognitive impairments like brain fog and memory loss.”

The researchers hypothesized that SARS-CoV-2-induced senescence in the brain was associated with the neuroinflammatory effects of the virus during the acute phase. To test their hypothesis, they analyzed the brains of patients who’d died following severe COVID-19 or from non-infectious, non-neurological causes. They found an over sevenfold number of p16 protein-positive cells in the brains of COVID-19 patients compared to controls. Cellular senescence is often characterized by the expression of p16, and the findings suggested a potential role for SARS-CoV-2 in triggering cellular senescence, which could contribute to cognitive decline and accelerate the neurodegenerative processes associated with long COVID.

The researchers then generated brain organoids, lab-made mini-brain models, from embryonic stem cells and physiologically aged the organoids for eight months before testing the efficacy of senolytics or drugs that clear away senescent cells.

They identified four drugs that selectively eliminated senescent cells: navitoclax, ABT-737, fisetin, and a combination of dasatinib and quercetin (D+Q). Navitoclax and ABT-737 inhibit the Bcl-2 protein, which induces apoptosis or programmed cell death in senescent cells. Fisetin and D+Q pass through the blood-brain barrier and clear senescent cells from the brain. The aged organoids were exposed to two doses (one every two weeks) of either navitoclax, ABT-737, or D+Q, after which they were subjected to bulk RNA sequencing analysis.

Compared to navitoclax and ABT-737, D+Q had a more broad-spectrum effect, mitigating multiple proinflammatory pathways characteristic of cellular senescence. In addition to acting as a senolytic, D+Q treatment on nine-month-old organoids reverted their gene expression age to levels comparable to eight-month-old counterparts. Gene expression changes caused by D+Q treatment were positively correlated with characteristics of lifespan-extending interventions such as caloric restriction, indicating the drug’s health-promoting role in targeting cellular senescence. In short, the treatment rejuvenated the organoids’ brain tissue.

More

Drugs identified that may reverse brain fog caused by COVID-19 (newatlas.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Arizona solar canal project aims to save water while making power

Loz Blain  November 23, 2023

With most of Arizona in a state of moderate to extreme drought, the Gila River Indian Community and the US Army Corps of Engineers have signed a deal to begin a solar-over-canal project designed to cut down evaporation and boost solar efficiency.

With a similar project planned for California still yet to get started, the US$6.74-million project becomes the first of its kind to begin construction in the USA. The first phase aims to build solar photovoltaic shades stretching across the 1-10 Level Top canal for a length of around 1,000 ft (305 m).

The benefits of this simple idea could be significant. Not only will the solar panels generate up to one megawatt of power for the Gila River Indian Community, they'll also provide shade for the water below, helping keep water in the canals rather than letting the baking desert heat evaporate it away. Viewed as a solar farm, it should be considerably cheaper, since no land needs to be acquired.

Furthermore, the water will help cool the panels, increasing their efficiency and creating a ~3% boost to power production, according to Professor Roger Bales, who wrote about the California project for The Conversation in 2022. In a study published in 2021, Bales and his team argued that "covering all 4,000 miles of California’s canals with solar panels would save more than 65 billion gallons of water annually by reducing evaporation," while generating up to 13 GW of renewable energy in a distributed fashion that could cut down on transmission losses.

The new Arizona project is scheduled for completion in 2025.

----While this will be the first project of its kind in the USA, something similar has already been built overseas. The Canal Solar Power Project in Gujarat, India, began in 2012, and by 2015, it had a megawatt-scale pilot project complete and operating, covering about a stretch of canal about 750 m (2,460 ft) long.

More

Arizona solar canal project aims to save water while making power (newatlas.com)

This weekend’s music diversion. Yet another Fandango this one by Padre Soler. Compare and contrast with Boccherini’s more famous version. Both approx. 10 minutes.

SOLER ANTONIO 1729 1783 Fandango L'Arpeggiata, Christina PLUHAR

SOLER ANTONIO 1729 1783 Fandango L'Arpeggiata, Christina PLUHAR - YouTube

Boccherini-Quintetto n. 4 G 448 - Fandango (III-parte II)

Boccherini-Quintetto n. 4 G 448 - Fandango (III-parte II) - YouTube

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 11 minutes.

We Are Spoiled With Incredible Games!

We Are Spoiled With Incredible Games! - YouTube

No weekend the math’s update again this week. This week, Corn in the USA Maize nearly everywhere else. Approx. 12 minutes.

Why The U.S. Government Is (Still) Obsessed With Corn

Why The U.S. Government Is (Still) Obsessed With Corn - YouTube

Finally, for the geeks who occasionally browse the weekend LIR. Did AI just turn into AGI back in September? (Artificial General/Generative Intelligence.) What does it mean for the rest of us this decade, if it did?  How long before AGI can tell me how to make a nuclear bomb in my garden shed?

Approx. 20 very interesting minutes.

BREAKING: OpenAI INSIDER Drops BOMBSHELL "AGI Achieved"

BREAKING: OpenAI INSIDER Drops BOMBSHELL "AGI Achieved" - YouTube

“The modern banking process manufactures currency out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of slight hand that was ever invented…If you want to be slaves of the bankers, and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let the banks create currency”.

Lord Josiah Stamp, Former Director of the Bank of England (1937)

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