Baltic Dry Index. 1559 +36 Brent Crude 81.51
Spot Gold 1966 US 2 Year Yield 4.91 -0.02
“All the big tech stocks have already reported;
we kind of know where everybody is at this point. So there really shouldn’t be
too many surprises at this point,” said Ken Mahoney, the CEO of Mahoney Asset
Management.
These ongoing equity gains, led
by big-cap technology stocks and combined with muted central bank action could
set the market up nicely into 2024, Mahoney added.
He’s optimistic that the economy could be in a “Goldilocks environment where it’s not too hot to have the Fed raise rates and not too cold,” either. “I think that we can have a year-end rally against performance anxiety, and the leader still to be maintained in Apple, Microsoft, Google or other top names,” he said.
In the stock casinos, the boom is back based on renewed optimism
that the top is in for central bank interest rates.
Goldilocks is back, it’s the three bears that died!
Well maybe, but with crude oil signalling that recession is looming
over the global economy and an easy, safe 5.47 percent on offer from the 6
month T. Bill at the US Treasury who needs year-end over priced stock casino risk?
Most Asia
markets dip; Japan business sentiment improves
UPDATED WED, NOV 8 2023 12:30 AM
EST
Most Asia-Pacific markets inched lower in choppy
trading on Wednesday, extending declines from the previous session, while
investors digested a positive business sentiment survey from Japan.
On Tuesday, South
Korean stocks retreated more than 2% from their Monday rally,
while U.S. markets closed out their longest
winning streaks in nearly two years.
The Reuters Tankan poll showed Japanese
manufacturers’ business confidence improved for the first time since August and
service-sector mood rose for a second month, underscoring a challenging outlook
amid a patchy economic recovery.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 dipped
0.12%, while the Topix fell 0.95%.
In South Korea, the Kospi dropped
0.53%, and the Kosdaq slipped 0.89%. The Kospi was on track to wipe out nearly
half of its gains from Monday when the the country re-imposed
a ban on short selling.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed
0.26% higher at 6,995.40.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged
0.11% lower, while China’s CSI 300 index slipped 0.16%.
Wall Street’s main indexes closed higher on
Tuesday, with the S&P
500 and Nasdaq
Composite clocking their longest winning streaks in nearly two
years.
The S&P 500 closed 0.28%
higher, while the Nasdaq jumped 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged
up 0.17% at close.
The S&P 500 rose for a
seventh consecutive day for the first time since its eight-day win streak in
November 2021. The Nasdaq posted eight days of wins for the first time since an
11-day streak ended in November 2021. The Dow rose for a seventh straight
session for its longest streak since July.
Live
updates: Asia markets lower, Japan business sentiment improves (cnbc.com)
Negative momentum
expected to continue in European markets, with more earnings ahead
UPDATED WED, NOV 8 2023 12:27 AM
EST
European markets are heading for a negative
open, continuing negative momentum since the start of the week.
It’s another busy day of earnings
ahead, with Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, Marks and Spencer, Telefonica and ABN
Amro all reporting Wednesday. On the data front, euro zone retail sales for
September are due.
Elsewhere overnight, most Asia-Pacific
markets edged lower, extending declines from the previous
session, while Japanese blue-chip stocks stayed afloat after a positive
business sentiment survey.
U.S.
stock futures were flat overnight after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notched
their longest winning streaks in about two years.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Stock futures inch lower after S&P 500
registers longest winning streak since 2021: Live updates
UPDATED WED, NOV 8 2023 12:15 AM
EST
U.S. stock futures inched lower on Wednesday
after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notched
their longest winning streaks in about two years.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 slipped
0.07%, and Nasdaq 100 futures
inched lower by 0.10%. Dow Jones
Industrial Average futures fell
by 20 points or 0.06%.
In after-hours action, shares of Array Technologies tumbled
about 13% as the solar tracker company offered weak full-year guidance for
earnings and revenue. Spirit AeroSystems,
a Boeing supplier, lost 14% after announcing a plan to raise capital
through stock and note offerings.
Earlier in the day, the S&P 500 added
0.3% to clinch its seventh straight positive session. The Nasdaq Composite advanced
0.9% to post its eighth straight day of gains. Tuesday marked the longest
stretch of positive days since November 2021 for both indexes. The 30-stock Dow climbed
nearly 0.2%, marking a seventh winning day.
These gains come after about 80%
of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates this season, while
slowing demand means that only 59% have also topped revenue expectations. The
last time this differential was this wide was during the fourth quarter of
2015, according to LSEG.
“All the big tech stocks have
already reported; we kind of know where everybody is at this point. So there
really shouldn’t be too many surprises at this point,” said Ken Mahoney, the
CEO of Mahoney Asset Management.
These ongoing equity gains, led
by big-cap technology stocks and combined with muted central bank action could
set the market up nicely into 2024, Mahoney added.
He’s optimistic that the economy
could be in a “Goldilocks environment where it’s not too hot to have the Fed
raise rates and not too cold,” either. “I think that we can have a year-end
rally against performance anxiety, and the leader still to be maintained in Apple, Microsoft, Google or
other top names,” he said.
MGM
Resorts, Walt Disney,
and Take-Two
Interactive are
all set to report earnings after Wednesday’s closing bell. Investors will also
watch out for September’s wholesale inventories data.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Central banks look to have hit peak rates.
Here’s how markets think they’ll come down
The world’s major central banks paused their
interest rate hiking cycles in recent weeks and with data suggesting economies
are softening, markets are turning their attention to the first round of cuts.
The U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and
the Bank of England dramatically
hiked rates over the last 18 months in a bid to tame runaway inflation.
The Fed on Wednesday held
benchmark interest rates steady at a target range of 5.25%-5.5%
for the second consecutive meeting after ending a string of 11 hikes in
September.
Though Chairman Jerome Powell has been keen to
reiterate that the Fed’s work on inflation is not yet done, the annual rise in
the consumer
price index came in at 3.7% in September, down from a pandemic-era
peak of 9.1% in June 2022.
Yet despite Powell’s refusal to
close the door on further increases in order to finish the job on inflation,
markets interpreted the central bank’s tone as a slightly dovish pivot and
rallied on the back of the decision.
The market is now narrowly pricing
a first 25 basis point cut from the Fed on May 1, 2024, according to CME
Group’s FedWatch tool, with 100 basis points of cuts
now expected by the end of next year.
Since last week’s decision, U.S.
nonfarm payrolls came in softer than expected for October, with job creation
below trend, unemployment rising slightly and a further deceleration in wages.
Although headline inflation remained unchanged at 3.7% annually from August to
September, the core figure came down to 4.1%, having roughly halved over the
last 12 months.
More
Central
banks look to have hit peak rates. Here's how markets think they'll come down
(cnbc.com)
Oil prices stutter
after hitting 3-months-lows, demand concerns mount
By Stephanie Kelly and Muyu Xu
November 8, 2023 3:36 AM GMT
Nov 8 (Reuters) -
Oil prices stuttered on Wednesday after sliding to their lowest in over three
months in the previous session, weighed down by concerns over waning demand in
the world's top oil consumers, the United States and China.
Brent crude
futures ticked up slightly by 4 cents to $81.65 a barrel by 0333 GMT, while
U.S. crude futures dipped 14 cents to $77.24 a barrel. Both declined to the
lowest since July 24 on Tuesday.
"The market
is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply
disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance," said
Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, analysts from ING bank, in a note to clients.
They were referring to an easing in tight oil supply conditions.
U.S. crude oil
stocks rose by almost 12 million barrels last week, market sources said late
Tuesday, citing American Petroleum Institute figures.
The U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) will delay the release of weekly inventory
data until the week of Nov. 13.
Crude oil
production in the United States this year will rise by slightly less than
previously expected while demand will fall, the EIA said on Tuesday.
The
EIA now expects total petroleum consumption in
the country to fall by 300,000 bpd this year, reversing its earlier forecast of
a 100,000 bpd increase.
The
agency also forecast Venezuela's crude oil production will increase by less than 200,000
barrels per day (bpd) to an average of 900,000 bpd by the end of 2024 under
easing of U.S. sanctions.
Further
tempering supply tightness concerns, analysts from Goldman Sachs estimated
seaborne net oil exports by six OPEC countries, which announced cumulative
production cuts worth 2 million barrels-per-day(bpd) since April 2023, remain
at only 0.6 million bpd below April levels.
Data in China,
the world's biggest crude oil importer, also raised doubts about the demand
outlook.
Crude
oil imports by the world's second-biggest economy in October showed robust growth but its total
exports of goods and services contracted at a quicker pace
than expected, adding to fears of lower global energy demand.
More
Oil
prices stutter after hitting 3-months-lows, demand concerns mount | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
UK grocery inflation in single digits for first time
this year -Kantar
November
7, 2023
LONDON
(Reuters) - British grocery inflation has fallen below 10% for the first time since
July 2022, industry data showed on Tuesday, providing some relief for consumers
as they enter the key Christmas shopping period.
Market
researcher Kantar said annual grocery inflation was 9.7% in the four weeks to
Oct. 29, down from 11% in last month's report.
"While
the drop ... is positive news and something of a watershed, consumers will
still be feeling the pinch," Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer
insight at Kantar, said.
"We’re
only seeing year on year price falls in a limited number of major categories
including butter, dried pasta and milk."
Prices are
rising fastest in markets such as eggs, sugar confectionery and frozen potato
products.
The Kantar
data provides the most up-to-date snapshot of UK grocery inflation.
The most
recent official data showed annual food inflation was 12.1% in September,
though prices did fall on the month for the first time in two years.
All of the
country's major supermarket groups have cut the prices of some essential
products in recent months.
Last week,
Sainsbury's said it had spent 118 million pounds ($146 million) since March in
keeping prices down.
Food
inflation's recent downward trajectory is being closely watched by consumers,
the Bank of England as it considers interest rates, and lawmakers, given that
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has promised to halve overall inflation this year
ahead of a probable national election in 2024.
Kantar said
grocery sales in the four weeks to Oct. 29 rose by 7.4% compared with last
year.
More
UK grocery inflation in single digits for first time
this year -Kantar (msn.com)
THE EUROZONE DISASTER: BETWEEN STAGNATION AND
STAGFLATION
November
6, 2023
The Eurozone economy is more than weak.
It is in deep contraction, and the data is staggering.
The Eurozone Manufacturing
purchasing managers’ index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to a
three-month low of 43.1 in October, the sixteenth consecutive month of
contraction. However, European analysts tend to ignore the manufacturing decline
using the excuse that the services sector is larger and stronger than expected,
but it is not. The Eurozone Composite PMI is also in deep contraction at 46.5,
a 35-month low, and the services sector plummeted to recession territory at
47.8, a 32-month low.
Some analysts blame the energy crisis
and the ECB rate hikes, but this makes no sense. The eurozone should be
outperforming the United States and China because the energy crisis reverted
almost immediately. Between May 2022 and June 2023, all commodities, including
natural gas, oil, and coal, as well as wheat, slumped and fell to pre-Ukraine
war levels. A mild winter and the impact of monetary contraction created a
strong stimulus that should have helped the eurozone, and there were no supply
disruptions. In fact, the contribution of the external sector to GDP helped the
area avoid a recession, as exports remained healthy while imports declined.
Blaming the eurozone recession on the
ECB’s monetary policy is also unfair. Eurozone inflation is unacceptable, and,
as the studies of Borio (BIS, 2023) and Congdon and Castañeda (2022) prove,
inflation was caused by excessive money growth. Furthermore, the ECB’s monetary
policy remains hugely accommodating. In fact, the misguided anti-fragmentation
program continues to support the debt of fiscally irresponsible countries. The
ECB’s balance sheet is more than 50% of the GDP of the euro area, compared to
the Federal Reserve’s 30%.
Fiscal and monetary policy remain
expansionary. Governments can spend at will, as the fiscal rules and limits
have been suspended. Therefore, fiscal and monetary conditions are a Keynesian
dream. There is more, because the much-trumpeted EU Next Generation Fund, a
€750 billion stimulus package aimed at strengthening growth and productivity,
is in full swing.
Now put all this together. Massive
stimulus packages, deficit spending, accommodative monetary policy, and the
external support of cheap natural gas and coal… And there is no growth. Blaming
it on China’s slowdown is lazy. If eurozone growth was driven by exports to
China, Germany would not have been on the verge of recession, with France and
Italy delivering zero growth in 2019, for example. Furthermore, the poor growth
of the eurozone between 2011 and 2019 coincided with a period of extraordinary
expansion in China.
The problem of the eurozone is not
China, rate hikes, or the Ukraine war. The curse of the eurozone is central
planning. Subsidizing obsolete sectors and zombie firms, bloating government
spending, and massively increasing taxes on the most productive sectors are
driving away technology, industry, and high-productivity sectors. Government
spending is now the main component of GDP in countries like France or Belgium
and is rising all over the eurozone. Implementation of politically imposed
economic decisions has crippled euro area opportunities, and energy policy is a
key area of stagnation in the economy. A misguided energy policy makes industry
less competitive and the economy more vulnerable as power and natural gas
prices for households and industries are significantly more expensive than in
China or the U.S. due to the accumulation of taxes and regulatory burdens.
More
The Eurozone Disaster: Between Stagnation and Stagflation (bbntimes.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today, why is the UK NHS deliberately misleading the UK public, if not actually lying to them? Approx. 13 minutes.
NHS
... information
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
More on yesterday’s topic.
Graphene's proton permeability: A
switch for future energy technologies
by University of Manchester NOVEMBER 6, 2023
Proton
transport is a key step in many renewable energy technologies, such as hydrogen fuel cells and solar water splitting, and it was also
previously shown to be permeable to protons by Manchester scientists.
Their
new study published in Nature
Communications has shown that light can be used to accelerate proton
transport through graphene. Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms that is an
excellent conductor of both electricity and heat. However, it was previously
thought that graphene was impermeable to protons.
The
researchers found that when graphene is illuminated with light, the electrons in the graphene become excited. These excited
electrons then interact with protons, accelerating their transport through the
material.
This
discovery could have a significant impact on the development of new renewable
energy technologies. For example, it could lead to the development of more
efficient hydrogen fuel cells and solar water-splitting devices.
"Understanding
the connection between electronic and ion transport properties in
electrode-electrolyte interfaces at the molecular scale could enable new
strategies to accelerate processes central to many renewable energy
technologies, including hydrogen generation and utilization," said lead researcher Dr.
Marcelo Lozada-Hidalgo.
---- The smoking gun evidence of
this connection was the observation of a phenomenon known as "Pauli
blocking" in proton transport. This is an unusual electronic property of
graphene, never observed in proton transport. In essence, it is possible to
raise the energy of electrons in graphene to such an extent that graphene no
longer absorbs light—hence the "blocking."
The
researchers demonstrate that the same blocking takes place in light-driven
proton transport by raising the energy of electrons in graphene. This
unexpected observation demonstrates that graphene's electronic
properties are important to
its proton permeation properties.
Dr.
Shiqi Huang co-first author of the work said, "We were surprised that the
photo response of our proton conducting devices could be explained by the Pauli
blocking mechanism, which so far had only been seen in electronic measurements.
This provides insight into how protons, electrons and photons interact in
atomically thin interfaces."
"In
our devices, graphene is being effectively bombarded with protons, which pierce
its electronic cloud. We were surprised to see that photo-excited
electrons could control this
flow of protons," said Dr. Eoin Griffin co-first author.
If all else fails, immortality
can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
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