Friday, 3 November 2023

November 2023 v August 1914.

Baltic Dry Index. 1385 -16              Brent Crude  87.04

Spot Gold 1987                   US 2 Year Yield 4.98 +0.03

Nature's law, That man was made to mourn. Man's inhumanity to man Makes countless thousands mourn! Man was made to mourn.

Robert Burns, 1786.

In the stock casinos, party on! The central bankster punchbowl is coming back, say the punters. What could possibly go wrong?

Well maybe, but a wider Middle-East war looms. Will November 2023 turn into our August 1914?

We are drinking in the last chance saloon.


Asia markets rise ahead of key economic data across the region

UPDATED FRI, NOV 3 2023 1:26 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets rose at the end of the week, with investors accessing a fresh round of data for more clues on the health of business activity through the region.

China’s service sector expanded at a slightly faster pace in October, with the Caixin services purchasing managers index at 50.4, just above September’s reading of 50.2.

Hong Kong’s private sector activity contracted further in October as new business, including that from mainland China

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index strengthened 2.24%, while China’s CSI 300 rose 0.89%.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.09%, while the Kosdaq was up 1.04%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 ended 1.14% higher at 6,978.20.

Japan markets were shut for a public holiday.

Wall Street indexes rose on Thursday as Treasury yields fell, with investors betting the Federal Reserve could be done raising rates for 2023.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 1.7%, higher, its best day since June. The S&P 500 added 1.89%, the first time the S&P 500 posted back-to-back gains of more than 1% since February.

The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.78%, marking its best session since July.

Live Updates: Asia Markets, Caixin PMI, India PMI, Hong Kong PMI (cnbc.com)

Nasdaq 100 futures slip after Apple reports earnings: Live updates

UPDATED FRI, NOV 3 2023 1:25 AM EDT

Nasdaq 100 futures slipped on Friday after Apple issued its latest quarterly results.

Futures linked to the tech-heavy index slid 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures dropped 0.1%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 39 points, or 0.11% higher.

In after-hours trading Thursday, Apple fell 3% after the iPhone maker issued a weak revenue outlook for the December quarter. Though the company beat on top and bottom lines in its fiscal fourth quarter, overall sales declined for the fourth quarter in a row. Elsewhere, shares of Square popped 16% on an earnings beat and a raise on full-year guidance, while Paramount Global jumped nearly 5% on a strong quarterly report.

Thursday’s regular session saw a broad rally for stocks as Treasury yields retreated. The S&P 500 notched its best day since April, up 1.9%, while the Dow saw its best session since June with a 1.7% gain. The Nasdaq Composite posted its best day since July, rising about 1.8%.

Whether that positive momentum continues could depend on the outcome of October’s jobs report, due Friday morning. Economists polled by Dow Jones are calling for an increase of 170,000 payrolls, compared to September’s blowout of 336,000 jobs. They also anticipate the unemployment rate will hold steady at 3.8%.

As of Thursday’s close, stocks are on pace for sizable weekly gains as investors grow hopeful that the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking campaign is nearly over.

The Dow is up 4.4%, on pace for its best weekly performance since October 2022. The S&P 500 is tracking for a 4.9% advance on the week, while the Nasdaq is up 5.2% — both are tracking for their best week since November 2022.

In the world of earnings, consumer goods giant Church & Dwight will issue quarterly results Friday morning, along with Dominion Energy and Cardinal Health.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

In cryptoland news, to no one’s great surprise, the Great Embezzler, was found guilty on all seven counts charged. Now will the politicised Biden DOJ seek disgorgement from all the Democrat politicians he bribed?

Hunter Biden and “the Big Guy” next? Don’t count on it.


Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty on all seven criminal fraud counts

A jury has found Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of all seven criminal counts against him. The FTX founder faces a maximum sentence of 115 years in prison.

Bankman-Fried, the 31-year old son of two Stanford legal scholars and graduate of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was convicted of wire fraud and conspiracy to commit wire fraud against FTX customers and against Alameda Research lenders, conspiracy to commit securities fraud and conspiracy to commit commodities fraud against FTX investors, and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

He had pleaded not guilty to the charges, which were all tied to the collapse late last year of FTX and sister hedge fund Alameda.

“Sam Bankman-Fried perpetrated one of the biggest financial frauds in American history,” Damian Williams, U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, said in a briefing after the verdicts were read. “While the cryptocurrency industry might be new and the players like Sam Bankman-Fried might be new, this kind of corruption is as old as time. This case has always been about lying, cheating, and stealing, and we have no patience for it.”

Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement, “Sam Bankman-Fried thought that he was above the law. Today’s verdict proves he was wrong.”

“This case should send a clear message to anyone who tries to hide their crimes behind a shiny new thing they claim no one else is smart enough to understand: the Justice Department will hold you accountable.”

More

Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty on all seven criminal fraud counts (cnbc.com)

Hmm. Getting ready to attack Iran?

 

U.S. QUIETLY EXPANDS SECRET MILITARY BASE IN ISRAEL

Government documents pointing to construction at a classified U.S. base offer rare hints about a little noted U.S. military presence near Gaza.

October 27 2023, 11:55 a.m.

TWO MONTHS BEFORE Hamas attacked Israel, the Pentagon awarded a multimillion-dollar contract to build U.S. troop facilities for a secret base it maintains deep within Israel’s Negev desert, just 20 miles from Gaza. Code-named “Site 512,” the longstanding U.S. base is a radar facility that monitors the skies for missile attacks on Israel. 

On October 7, however, when thousands of Hamas rockets were launched, Site 512 saw nothing — because it is focused on Iran, more than 700 miles away.

The U.S. Army is quietly moving ahead with construction at Site 512, a classified base perched atop Mt. Har Qeren in the Negev, to include what government records describe as a “life support facility”: military speak for barracks-like structures for personnel.

Though President Joe Biden and the White House insist that there are no plans to send U.S. troops to Israel amid its war on Hamas, a secret U.S. military presence in Israel already exists. And the government contracts and budget documents show it is evidently growing. 

The $35.8 million U.S. troop facility, not publicly announced or previously reported, was obliquely referenced in an August 2 contract announcement by the Pentagon. Though the Defense Department has taken pains to obscure the site’s true nature — describing it in other records merely as a “classified worldwide” project — budget documents reviewed by The Intercept reveal that it is part of Site 512. (The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.)

“Sometimes something is treated as an official secret not in the hope that an adversary would never find out about it but rather [because] the U.S. government, for diplomatic or political reasons, does not want to officially acknowledge it,” Paul Pillar, a former chief analyst at the CIA’s counterterrorism center who said he had no specific knowledge of the base, told The Intercept. “In this case, perhaps the base will be used to support operations elsewhere in the Middle East in which any acknowledgment that they were staged from Israel, or involved any cooperation with Israel, would be inconvenient and likely to elicit more negative reactions than the operations otherwise would elicit.

More

U.S. Quietly Pushes Ahead Secret Military Base in Israel, Near Gaza (theintercept.com)

Strait of Hormuz is in focus as Israel-Hamas war threatens to spread

It’s been nearly four weeks since Israel declared war on Palestinian militant group Hamas, and as the conflict in Gaza enters the second stage, concerns of a spillover into the wider Middle East region is also mounting.

Market observers are keeping a close eye on the the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, to see if there may be any potential impact.

The strait, which sits between Oman and Iran, is a vital channel where about one fifth of global oil production flow daily, according to the Energy Information Administration. It is a strategically important waterway linking crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.

On Oct. 7, Hamas militants launched a multi-pronged attack by land, sea and air and infiltrated Israel, killing more than 1,400 people. In retaliation, Israel launched air strikes and a ground invasion into the Gaza Strip, which has so far killed more than 9,000 people in the enclave.

Risks of it spiraling into a wider conflict remain. The U.S. has deployed military assets to the region to support Israel which is fending off rocket volleys from Iran-backed militants in neighboring Lebanon and Syria.

The U.S. has also carried out airstrikes against targets linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria.

A retaliation from Israel against Iran risks a closure of the strait, pushing oil prices to above $250 a barrel, a recent Bank of America note predicted. Iran is a major oil producer, and its proxies include Hamas and the Hezbollah, militant organizations that are respectively based in Gaza and Lebanon and have stated aims to destroy Israel.

Observers worry that Israel’s intense bombardment of the Gaza Strip will incite more of its adversaries to attack from new fronts, risking a spill over into the wider Middle East region.

More

Strait of Hormuz is in focus as Israel-Hamas war threatens to spread (cnbc.com)

Israel-Hamas war live updates: White House calls for ‘humanitarian pauses’; Gaza Strip situation is ‘desperate,’ UN agency says

UPDATED FRI, NOV 3 2023 1:40 AM EDT

The international community is continuing efforts to evacuate civilians from the Gaza Strip after an initial batch of foreign nationals was allowed to enter Egypt on Wednesday for the first time since the start of the conflict. Egypt is now working to evacuate 7,000 international passport holders, the country’s foreign ministry said.

The evacuations come after the U.S., Hamas, Israel and Egypt struck a deal mediated by Qatar in coordination with the U.S.

Gaza’s ministry of Health has told NBC News that its main power generator has stopped working, putting the lives of hundreds of people at risk. More than 20,000 people remain injured with limited health care in the Gaza Strip due to the onslaught on the territory, according to Doctors Without Borders.

Around 690,000 internally displaced people are taking refuge in 149 shelters run by the UN Agency for Palestine Refugees, the relief organization said Thursday, describing the situation in the Gaza Strip as “desperate.”

Amid this, U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday said he thinks there should be a humanitarian “pause” in the conflict to allow more time to get “prisoners” out. He made the comments in response to a protester interrupting him at a fundraiser, calling for a cease-fire.

Israel-Hamas war live updates: Latest news on Gaza conflict (cnbc.com)

Finally, get ready for the coming northern hemisphere winter, hopefully not one like 1812s that ruined Napoleon’s Grand Army in November 1812, eventually saving Europe in 1815 at the Battle of Waterloo.


Snow cover in the Lower 48 is at record levels as November starts

November 1, 2023

The season’s first snows have frosted the Rocky Mountains, the northern Plains, the Great Lakes and northern New England over the past week, resulting in the most extensive early-November snow cover in at least two decades.

On Wednesday morning, snow was on the ground in 17.9 percent of the Lower 48, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Locations from eastern Minnesota to western New York saw snow on Halloween — even enough to shovel in Minneapolis; Milwaukee; Muskegon, Mich.; and Buffalo. Areas downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario were also blanketed early Wednesday, including Cleveland and Akron, Ohio, while several inches were anticipated along some of the west-facing slopes of the Appalachian Mountains.

This latest batch of wintry weather comes on the heels of two other storm systems that brought snow to the Mountain West, the northern Plains, the Midwest and northern New England over the past week.

The current abundance of snow was made possible by a powerful early-season outbreak of cold air. It brought a handful of record lows in the northern Plains on Halloween and in areas to the south and east of there on Wednesday morning.

About 119 million Americans began Wednesday at or below freezing; the temperature averaged over the Lower 48 was 31.3 degrees — more than 10 degrees below average.

Numerous locations across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri flirted with or broke record lows Wednesday morning. This included a teeth-chattering 8 degrees in Mount LeConte, Tenn., in the Smoky Mountains — the location’s earliest single-digit low on record.

More

Snow cover in the Lower 48 is at record levels as November starts (msn.com)

U.S. and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover - NOHRSC - The ultimate source for snow information (noaa.gov)

Arctic Sea Ice News.

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag (nsidc.org)

As best I can tell, Frobisher Bay in Baffin Island, Canada is iced up, but nearby and larger Cumberland Sound is still mostly ice free. Lacking readers in either location, I am unlikely to get a local update.

"Nothing matters very much and few things matter at all".

Lord Balfour, Prime Minister and later Foreign Secretary.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

UAW deals with Detroit 3 include some back pay for strike, layoffs

Those who were on strike or were laid off will receive about $110 per day for each day of work missed in addition to the ratification bonus all workers get.

Subscription required.

Detroit 3 union deals include back pay for UAW strike, layoffs | Automotive News (autonews.com)

Bank of England keeps rates at 15-year high

LONDON, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The Bank of England held interest rates at a 15-year peak as it kept up its fight against the highest inflation among the world's big rich economies, and it stressed that it did not expect to cut them any time soon.

Despite publishing forecasts which now show the British economy now skirting close to a recession and flat-lining in the coming years, the BoE held Bank Rate at 5.25% for the second meeting in a row after 14 back-to-back increases.

It also reinforced its message that borrowing costs were set to stay high, even though only about half of the impact of its long run of rate hikes have been felt in the economy so far.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 6-3 to keep Bank Rate on hold, in line with economists' expectations in a Reuters poll.

"The MPC's latest projections indicate that monetary policy is likely to need to be restrictive for an extended period of time," the BoE said. "Further tightening in monetary policy would be required if there were evidence of more persistent inflationary pressure."

In September, the BoE had said rates would need to remain "sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long."

Governor Andrew Bailey also tried to hammer home the message that inflation's fall over the past year from its highest since the 1980s and the weaker economic outlook should not be seen as a sign that rate cuts might soon be on the table, and a more likely possibility was another rate hike.

"We need to see inflation continuing to fall all the way to our 2% target," Bailey said in a statement.

"We've held rates unchanged this month, but we'll be watching closely to see if further rate increases are needed. It's much too early to be thinking about rate cuts."

The decision to keep rates on hold echoed moves by the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve over the past week. They are also waiting to see if their strong dose of rate hike medicine will curb the world's worst outbreak of inflation in decades.

Policymakers are also watching for any signs that the conflict in the Middle East causes a fresh round of higher inflation as it pushes up oil and gas prices.

MPC members Megan Greene, Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann voted to raise rates to 5.5%.

Sarah Breeden voted to keep rates on hold at her first meeting as an MPC member since replacing Jon Cunliffe.

More

Bank of England keeps rates at 15-year high | Reuters

Exclusive: BOJ plans to exit from easy policy next year but needs some good fortune

By Leika Kihara 

TOKYO, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will continue to dismantle the central bank's ultra-easy monetary policy settings and look to exit the decade-long accommodative regime sometime next year, an inherently risky plan that would require skilful execution.

Ultimately, however, the BOJ chief's exit strategy will require a bit of good fortune too, especially given global uncertainties including the Middle East conflict and worries about whether the U.S. economy could achieve a soft landing as well as China's growth trajectory.

 

Ueda's intentions are based on interviews with six sources familiar with the BOJ's thinking, including government officials with direct interaction with the bank.

Ueda will stick to a pattern he established six months in his tenure, which is to move gradually toward an exit while maintaining the dovish rhetoric of his predecessor, the sources say.

Since taking the helm in April, the central bank chief has mostly echoed his predecessor's pledge to keep monetary policy ultra-loose until sustained achievement of the BOJ's 2% price target comes into sight.

With inflation exceeding 2% for over a year, however, Ueda has steadily been phasing out the Kuroda-era stimulus starting with a removal in April of a commitment to keep rates at low levels.

Yet, Ueda will be mindful of the narrow exit path as even small hints could trigger a spike in bond yields and upend the BOJ's plan for a soft-landing.

"The BOJ's main message now is to maintain ultra-loose policy, even it seems to conflict with what it's actually doing," one source said on condition of anonymity as he was not authorised to speak publicly.

"Given uncertainty over the economic outlook, the BOJ probably wants to wait at least until spring next year in normalising policy," said another source. "If so, it makes sense to keep the BOJ's guidance dovish."

More

Exclusive: BOJ plans to exit from easy policy next year but needs some good fortune | Reuters

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

More contempt for the public, by all parties in the Commons, on display yet again, on the issue of Covid-19 vaccine safety.  I will leave this callous display of contempt for the UK public up for the rest of the week.  Approx. 14 minutes.

Safe and effective

Safe and effective - YouTube

The Veil Of Silence Over Excess Deaths

MONDAY, OCT 30, 2023 - 06:00 AM

Around the world, there has been a deafening silence over excess deaths from governments and the mainstream media, who not so long ago were quite fixated on the daily death toll for Covid. 

On October 20th, a 30-minute adjourned debate (20 rejections later) on excess deaths in the UK House of Commons was finally secured by Andrew Bridgen, MP for North West Leicestershire and member of the Reclaim Party. 

Bridgen began his speech to the sound of erupting cheers from the full, upper public gallery, in stark contrast to the almost empty chamber below. 

Where were the hundreds of MPs who would normally sit shoulder to shoulder in the chamber? It appears, an increase in deaths of their constituents was not a pressing issue for them on that Friday afternoon. 

We’ve experienced more excess deaths since July 2021 than in the whole of 2020, unlike the pandemic, however, these deaths are not disproportionately of the old, in other words, the excess deaths are striking down people in the prime of life but no-one seems to care. I fear history will not judge this house kindly. 

Strikingly, excess deaths have been seen across all age groups, which Bridgen pointed out during his speech.

More

The Veil Of Silence Over Excess Deaths | ZeroHedge

 

All variants of COVID-19 virus can infect the brain, study finds

Rich Haridy  October 31, 2023

Several years after the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, researchers still face plenty of unanswered questions. For example, we know COVID is associated with a variety of neurological symptoms, both short- and long-term, but it still isn’t entirely clear whether these cognitive issues are the result of the virus directly infecting brain cells or simply due to a broader systemic inflammatory response.

Studies looking at human brain tissue have yielded contradictory results. Some have found direct traces of SARS-CoV-2, while others report only inflammatory damage. Animal models certainly demonstrate it is possible for the virus to infect the brain, but human tissue samples are obviously taken after a patient dies, meaning researchers can only hypothesize what happens during an acute infection.

In a new study, led by scientists from Institut Pasteur and Université Paris Cité, an animal model was used to investigate several questions yet to be resolved. How could the SARS-CoV-2 virus enter the brain through the olfactory system? Are different SARS-CoV-2 variants more or less likely to enter the brain? And is losing one’s sense of smell directly linked to the virus entering the brain?

Using a hamster model, the research compared infection with the original SARS-CoV-2 virus from 2020 to several subsequent variants including Gamma, Delta and Omicron/BA.1 variants. Interestingly, the findings confirmed epidemiological observations showing acute disease severity is reduced in Omicron infections, however, all variants demonstrated similar neuroinvasive capabilities. And most strikingly, all variants infected the brain’s olfactory regions regardless of whether symptoms of anosmia (loss of sense of smell) were present or not.

"This suggests that anosmia and neuronal infection are two unrelated phenomena," says first author Guilherme Dias de Melo. "If we follow this line of reasoning, it is quite possible that even an asymptomatic – and therefore clinically benign – infection is characterized by the spread of the virus in the nervous system."

---- The researchers conclude this suggests all SARS-CoV-2 variants have the capacity to infect the brain, via the olfactory pathway, regardless of clinical disease presentations. This means it is possible even mild infections can lead to the virus infiltrating the brain.

Hervé Bourhy, another author on the study, says future work will need to explore the relationship between acute SARS-CoV-2 brain infections and persistent symptoms seen in long COVID.

More

All variants of COVID-19 virus can infect the brain, study finds (newatlas.com)

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Offshore Wind Firm Cancels N.J. Projects, as Industry’s Prospects Dim

November 1, 2023

Orsted, the Danish company that is a leading offshore wind farm developer, said on Wednesday that it would write off as much as $5.6 billion as it gives up on plans to build two wind farms off the coast of New Jersey.

The charges were further evidence that offshore wind in the United States is going through a major shakeout, crimping Biden administration plans to make the industry a critical component of plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. High inflation and soaring interest rates are making planned projects that looked like winners several years ago no longer profitable.

“The world has in many ways, from a macroeconomic and industry point of view, turned upside down,” Mads Nipper, Orsted’s chief executive, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday. The two projects, known as Ocean Wind 1 and 2, were destined to provide green energy to New Jersey.

Offshore wind and other parts of the renewable industry have hit some snags in Europe, especially in Britain, but Mr. Nipper said the problems were more acute in the United States, because early contracts lacked protection from inflation and developers incurred high costs because of delays in approvals during the Trump administration.

 

The company’s stock price fell about 20 percent on Wednesday morning as the company reported a loss of about $3.2 billion for the third quarter and warned that the write downs — essentially, a reduction in the value of the company’s investments — would have what it called an “impact” on Orsted’s finances.

Orsted is writing off 28.4 billion krone, or about $4 billion, now. The company estimates that it may take another charge of up to 11 billion krone later in the year.

Orsted is not alone in encountering hazards in the fledgling offshore market in the United States.

On Tuesday, BP, the London-based energy giant, said it would write down $540 million on three planned wind projects off New York, after the state authorities declined to renegotiate their terms. BP says it is assessing future plans for the schemes in light of the decision.

In its announcement, Orsted said it would move forward with a $4 billion project called Revolution Wind intended to supply power to consumers in Rhode Island. And other developers have projects under construction, like Vineyard Wind, which will eventually have 62 turbines in the waters off Martha’s Vineyard, Mass.

Offshore wind is not dead, but the industry and its backers are certainly learning some harsh lessons. The ambitions of the Biden administration and states along the East Coast like New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts to install large amounts of clean electric power generation through offshore wind in the coming decades are likely to be set back.

More

Offshore Wind Firm Cancels N.J. Projects, as Industry’s Prospects Dim – DNyuz

Another weekend and a continuing tragic weekend in the Gaza Strip where no one is listening, or paying any attention to US President Biden, reputedly the most powerful western leader and leader of the western democracies. Not quite the Warsaw Ghetto destruction 1943, but Gaza is uncomfortably close.

Have a great weekend everyone. If a believer, perhaps if we all ask God this weekend for help He will provide a timely and just solution avoiding another 1914 but with nukes.

“The bell of man's inhumanity to man does not toll for any one man. It tolls for you, for me, for all of us.”

Martin Luther King Jr.

 

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