Baltic Dry Index. 1758 +28 Brent Crude 77.43
Spot
Gold 1984 US 2 Year Yield 4.83 -0.07
November 17, 1869 Suez Canal in Egypt opens, linking Mediterranean
and Red seas
In the fantasy world of stock casinos, it’s party time again as the roaring 20s are back say the perpetual bulls. Still the Asian stock casinos seem to have somehow derailed this morning.
Did the Santa Claus rally last only two
weeks? Look away from that collapsing oil price now.
Alibaba’s Hong Kong shares drop 10%, dragging on
Hang Seng; most Asia stocks fall
UPDATED THU, NOV 16 2023 11:36 PM
EST
Hong Kong stocks continued to lead declines in
Asia-Pacific on Friday, as shares of Alibaba plunged in early trading, while
most markets cooled off from a mid-week rally sparked by hopes of easing U.S.
inflation.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
1.80%, the tech-focused Hang Seng Tech index dropped 2% — dragged lower by
heavyweight Alibaba which
fell 10%.
The Chinese e-commerce giant said
it would not proceed with the full spinoff of its cloud group
due to U.S. chip export restrictions.
Investors also digested high-level
discussions between the United States and China. Economic data in
the region will be parsed through the day.
Stocks on Wall
Street took a breather from a rally seen this month.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 index fell 0.53%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was
near the flatline and the Topix added 0.27%.
In South Korea, the Kospi declined
0.74%, while the Kosdaq fell 1.50%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was
0.14% lower.
Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed
lower, as investors took a break from the rally earlier this month.
The 30-stock Dow slipped 0.13%
and snapped a four-day run of gains. The S&P 500 ticked
higher by 0.12%, while the Nasdaq
Composite inched
up by 0.07%.
Live
updates: Asia markets fall, Hong Kong, Alibaba lead declines (cnbc.com)
Stock
futures are little changed as investors hope to extend November gains: Live
updates
UPDATED THU, NOV 16 2023 7:53 PM
EST
Stock futures oscillated near the flatline
Thursday evening as investors looked to keep this month’s gains going.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average ticked
higher by 21 points, or 0.06%. S&P 500 futures
advanced 0.06%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped
0.05%.
In after-hours action, Gap shares
leapt 15% as the company posted better-than-expected results
in the third quarter. Electric vehicle charging network ChargePoint slid
29% after announcing a shake-up in its C-suite and cutting its forecast for
third-quarter revenue.
During regular trading, the
30-stock Dow ended
the session lower by 0.13%, snapping a four-session run of gains. The S&P 500 added
0.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite closed
0.07% higher.
All three averages are on pace
for weekly gains — and that would mark their third straight positive week. The
S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are up more than 2% through Thursday’s close, while
the Dow is on pace for a 1.9% rise.
Soft readings for October’s consumer
price index and the producer
price index carried stocks during the week. CPI was flat from
the previous month, while wholesale prices dropped 0.5% for their largest
monthly decline since April 2020.
The results lifted investors’
hopes that the worst of inflation — as well as the Federal Reserve’s tough
stance on rate policy — may be in the rearview mirror.
“It’s hard sometimes in the
moment to recognize when something has significantly changed, [but] I think
there was a tremor on Tuesday, and things have changed,” EMJ Capital
founder and president Eric Jackson said on CNBC’s “Closing
Bell” on Thursday. “The Fed has done a Punxsutawney Powell, and gone
back into hibernation for I think the next six years.”
The question is whether traders
will be able to maintain that optimism for the remainder of the month. In
November, the S&P 500 is up 7.5%, while the Dow has a 5.7% gain. The Nasdaq
has leapt 9.8%.
On Friday, investors will be
eyeing housing starts and building permits data for October.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Back in the real world economy, a global recession looms and that’s always dire for most stocks, especially corporations heavily exposed to cheap debt that must be rolled over into expensive debt.
Recessions aren’t good for commercial real
estate companies either, nor servicing commercial real estate loans. A 2024 US
banking crisis looms into view given most CRE loans are held by US regional
banks and credit unions.
Oil prices slip on US crude build and China demand worries
By Natalie Grover November 16, 2023 12:56 PM GMT
Nov 16 (Reuters)
- Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, extending losses from the previous
session as signals of higher supply from the United States met concern over
lacklustre energy demand from China.
Brent futures
were down 70 cents at $80.48 a barrel by 1250 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate
crude (WTI) shed 65 cents to $76.01. Both benchmarks fell more than 1.5% in the
previous session.
WTI's front-month
contract also traded below the price for the second month, a structure known as
contango, suggesting that investors expect prices to increase. The front
month's discount to the second month traded at minus 17 cents on Thursday.
"Clearly,
the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of the structure is an
ominous sign; one that implies an oversupplied physical market," said
Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.
Worries
have been amplified by the U.S. crude
stocks that the U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA) said rose by 3.6 million barrels last week to 421.9
million barrels, far exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll.
U.S. crude
production held steady at a record 13.2 million barrels per day (bpd).
Varga
said the fall in crude prices flies in the face of recent estimates of global
demand-supply fundamentals from OPEC and the International
Energy Agency (IEA), both of which
predicted supply tightness in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile,
October inflation data from major economic hubs including the euro zone, the
United States and the UK have also been encouraging, he added.
Even
China, where the property
sector remains in trouble, is seeing green
shoots of economic recovery. Its economic
activity perked up in October as
industrial output increased at a faster pace and retail sales growth beat
expectations.
"The current
price drop is taking place amid a seemingly auspicious backdrop, which suggests
that investors simply do not buy into the ‘Q4 stock draw’ narrative; something
that is not backed up by the recent weekly EIA reports either," said Varga.
One
of the factors likely to be spooking investors is an expected slowdown in
Chinese oil
refinery throughput. Runs eased in October
from the previous month's highs as industrial fuel demand weakened and refining
margins narrowed.
In
the Middle East, with the Israel-Hamas conflict appearing to be escalating in Gaza, U.S. officials on Wednesday vowed to enforce
oil sanctions against Iran, which has long
been a backer of Hamas.
Oil prices slip on US crude build and China demand
worries | Reuters
Oil prices little changed on Friday, set for fourth week
of falls
UPDATED THU, NOV 16 2023 11:36 PM
EST
Oil prices were little changed on Friday but
were set for the fourth straight week of declines after hitting four month-lows
in the previous session.
The price of U.S. crude
oil fell 5% on Thursday as inventories rose while slowing
industrial activity raised concerns about waning demand.
The West Texas
Intermediate inched
0.14% higher at $73 a barrel in Asia trading hours, while the Brent gained
0.11%, to $77.54 a barrel.
U.S. crude and the
global benchmark both traded at their lowest level since early July on
Thursday.
“The shift lower
was likely driven initially by oversupply concerns,” Commonwealth Bank of
Australia analysts wrote in a note. “Demand concerns added to oversupply
narrative, particularly with U.S. continuing jobless claims rising to the
highest level in almost two years.”
Live
updates: Asia markets fall, Hong Kong, Alibaba lead declines (cnbc.com)
Deflation could be coming this holiday
season, Walmart CEO says
Shoppers may
get an early present this holiday season: falling prices in many gift-giving
categories.
On
Thursday, Walmart CEO
Doug McMillon said deflation could
be coming as general merchandise and key grocery items, such as eggs, chicken
and seafood get cheaper.
He said the retailer expects some of the stickier higher
prices, such as the ones for pantry staples, to “start to deflate in the coming
weeks and months,” too.
“In the U.S.,
we may be managing through a period of deflation in the months to come,” he
said on the company’s Thursday earnings call. “And while that would put more
unit pressure on us, we welcome it, because it’s better for our customers.”
For
more than a year, consumers have coped with inflation that peaked around
four-decade highs and drove up the cost of nearly everything, including
groceries, rent and utilities. But McMillon’s comments echoed what the
government and other retailers said earlier this week, offering signs of relief
for inflation-weary consumers.
Inflation
was flat
month over month, according to the latest consumer price index
report from the Labor Department on Tuesday. Core CPI, a metric that excludes
the categories of food and energy that tend to be volatile, hit a two-year low. Home Depot CFO
Richard McPhail said “the
worst of the inflationary environment is behind us” on an
earnings call Tuesday.
Even
Thanksgiving will be lighter on Americans’ wallets compared with last year. Lower
turkey prices mean that the average cost of a dinner for 10
people will be $61.17, down 4.5% from last
year’s record of $64.05, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
Stubborn inflation has been one of the biggest challenges for
retailers, including Walmart, the world’s largest retailer. It felt pressure
from that again in the fiscal third quarter, even
as it beat Wall Street’s sales and earnings expectations. Chief
Financial Officer John David Rainey told CNBC that shoppers have waited for
items to go on sale before buying them, such as holding out for a Black Friday
event.
There’s
still some time to go before inflation completely eases, however. Across most
categories, Americans are
still spending more on the same items, according to the latest CPI
numbers. Food at home, electricity and haircuts cost more than they did a year
ago.
At
Walmart, groceries are up by a mid-single-digit percentage compared with last
year, but still elevated by the high-teens percentage compared with two years
ago, Rainey said.
Walmart’s McMillon
said some stubborn food prices continue to be a concern.
“The pockets of
disinflation we are seeing are helping, but we like to see more, faster,” he
said.
Deflation could be coming this holiday, Walmart CEO says (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Fed’s Mester wants ‘much more evidence’ that
inflation has been defeated
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester
said Thursday that this week’s news showing lower levels of inflation isn’t
enough to convince her that the central bank has won its battle against higher
prices.
“We’re making progress on
inflation, discernible progress. We need to see more of that,” Mester told
CNBC’s Steve Liesman during an interview on “The Exchange.” “We’re
going to have to see much more evidence that inflation is on that timely path
back to 2%. But we do have really good evidence that it has made progress and
now it’s just, is it continuing?”
In separate reports, the Labor Department said that consumer
prices were unchanged in October from the previous month, while wholesale
prices actually fell 0.5%.
While the producer price index fell below the
Fed’s 2% 12-month inflation goal, the consumer price index was still at 3.2%,
and even higher when excluding food and energy, at 4%.
Following the reports, market
pricing in the futures market completely
eliminated the possibility that the Fed would be approving any
additional interest rate hikes. Moreover, the market is now pricing in the
equivalent of four quarter percentage point rate cuts next year, according to a
CME Group gauge.
But Mester said she’s reserving
judgment on where policymakers go from here.
More
Fed's
Mester wants 'much more evidence' that inflation has been defeated (cnbc.com)
Let’s be honest, inflation is down and the Bank of
England could create a recession
Thu, 16 November 2023 at
5:30 am GMT
In July 2021,
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey cautioned against a temptation to
“over-react to temporarily strong growth and inflation”. At the time, the
consumer price index had just reached 2.1 per cent, marginally surpassing the
Bank’s official target. Yet Bailey believed this would be a “temporary feature
of the bounce-back” rather than a persistent curse. Just a year later,
inflation had climbed to over ten per cent and has remained above the two per
cent target ever since.
The oft-heard
excuse from those who failed to see the inflation threat is to attribute blame
to the war in Ukraine and the consequential skyrocketing energy and food costs.
But, in truth, inflation was already out of control before Russian troops
kickstarted the full-scale invasion in February last year. In January 2022,
inflation had already reached 5.5 per cent.
Inflationary
conditions were baked in during the pandemic. The Bank of England expanded its
qualitative easing programme by an astonishing £450bn in 2020 and 2021,
effectively printing more money in a shorter period than ever. In practice,
this involved purchasing government bonds, keeping down the cost of borrowing
for Covid support programmes.
But nothing in
life is free. Putting an immense amount of cash into bank accounts resulted in
too much money chasing too few goods when people began spending again as
restrictions were lifted.
Nobel-prize-winning
economist Milton Friedman famously said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a
monetary phenomenon.” Modern central bankers tend to scoff at this idea, instead
focusing on the importance of inflationary expectations, supply shocks, demand
pressures and the state of the labour market. The issue of “long and variable
lags” in Friedman’s theory also raises practical challenges for monetary
policymakers – namely, it is hard to know precisely when a change in money
supply will filter through to inflation, making it difficult to use monetary
measures to fine-tune policy.
Nevertheless,
it seems evident and recent experience demonstrates money plays a role. The lesson
for central bankers is obvious: do not ignore monetary factors in setting
monetary policy.
Yesterday, it
emerged that inflation had fallen sharply to 4.7 per cent. This means Prime
Minister Rishi Sunak has met his target of halving inflation. Inflation is also
likely to reach the two per cent target next year. There is, however, a risk
that after failing to see the threat of inflation on the horizon, the Bank is
overcorrecting by keeping interest rates too high for too long, excessively
slowing down the economy.
The money
supply is again an essential reference point. The best measure of ‘broad money’
is M4x, which takes account of the private sector’s holding of hard currency,
deposits, and other short-term financial instruments similar to cash. This
measure, which should grow at a steady and low rate, has taken a negative turn.
M4x fell by minus 4.2 per cent in September.
More
Let’s be honest, inflation is down and the Bank of
England could create a recession (yahoo.com)
UK lenders step up mortgage price battle as inflation slows
By Iain Withers November 15, 2023 2:20 PM GMT
LONDON, Nov 15
(Reuters) - British lenders have accelerated price cuts on mortgages as
competition intensifies, inflation slows and markets increase bets on future
Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cuts.
Average rates on
fixed-rate mortgage products have fallen by more than 0.5 percentage points
since peaking in July, Moneyfacts data shows, even before the BoE starts to
reduce the benchmark rate that underpins borrowing costs.
The
latest inflation
data on Wednesday showed price rises in
Britain fell faster than expected in October, plunging to 4.6% from 6.7% the
prior month, leading to further investor bets on BoE rate cuts next year.
HSBC (HSBA.L) became the latest
lender to cut rates on Wednesday, by an average of 0.15 percentage points
across its products, following similar moves by rivals Halifax, Virgin
Money (VMUK.L) and
Nationwide (NBS.L) in recent days.
Mortgage brokers have seen a series of lenders reduce rates in
the last few weeks to catch up with the overall shift in market-pricing on
future rates, a spokesperson for broker John Charcol told Reuters.
The average two-year fixed rate mortgage was priced at 6.19% as
of Wednesday, the Moneyfacts data showed, down from a peak this year of 6.86%
on 26 July. The average five-year rate was 5.79%, down from a peak of 6.37% on
Aug. 2.
More
UK lenders step up mortgage price battle as inflation
slows | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
US stats from the US Life Insurance industry. Approx. 10 minutes.
Excess
deaths in 2023
Excess
deaths in 2023 - YouTube
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
iPhone 16 to use graphene heat sink to solve
overheating issues
Thu, 16
November 2023 at 3:11 am GMT
Users complained of
overheating iPhone 15 models shortly after release, which Apple fixed via
software, but the iPhone 16 is
rumored to have a hardware solution, too.
Select iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro models could overheat to the point of being uncomfortable to hold, at least until iOS 17.0.3. Apple blamed these conditions on
poorly optimized software and issued a software fix, but more effective cooling
may also help.
The iPhone 15 is already here and can't get a hardware change mid-cycle, but X
user @KosutamiSan says Apple is working on a solution for iPhone 16. The
company could switch to a graphene heat sink and a metal battery case to
promote better heat transfer.
The iPhone is such a tiny object that there isn't much space for anything,
especially thick or heavy heat sinks. Graphene is an excellent material for a
heat sink because it has ten times more thermal conductivity than copper.
The iPhone has no fan, so heat has to be dissipated through the device frame
into the air using passive heat transfer. Heat sinks do precisely what the name
implies, they remove heat from undesirable areas by having a more efficient
thermal conduction value than the materials around it.
Graphene would perform better than the existing cooling mechanism, thus
allowing the iPhone to deal with more heat more efficiently.
Apple has investigated many ways
to cool the iPhone down but hasn't changed much beyond using different heat
sinks. Ming-Chi Kuo suggested Apple could use vapor chambers at one point,
while a patent pointed to magnets as a solution.
However, those options are cost-prohibitive and require radical design changes.
Graphene may be the perfect solution to keep the iPhone 16 from overheating if
the rumor proves true.
Kosutami is a known leaker that collects design validation test products and
other such pre-production items. The leaker has a short history with accurate
leaks like USB-C components for iPhone 15, but also some misses like with a
supposed iPhone 15 Pro Thunderbolt cable. So, we're rating this leak as
possible.
iPhone 16 to use graphene heat sink to solve
overheating issues (yahoo.com)
Another weekend and the Gaza war on
women and children goes on relentlessly. But no one in the west really cares
and that’s badly noticed in the wider world. No NATO Ukraine crocodile tears
for Gaza’s helpless trapped prison inmates. No meaningful action by the “big
guy” in the District of Crooks.
With most drinkable water now scarce,
food supplies running out, bodies buried in rubble, no diesel and most medical
care collapsed, a medieval disease disaster comes next. Will that be enough to
prick the conscience of NATO and the west? Don’t count on it, only President
Macron seems to have a conscience. Have a great weekend everyone.
November 17, 1913 The first ship sails through the Panama Canal, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
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