Baltic
Dry Index. 1655 +12 Brent Crude 82.71
Spot
Gold 1945 US 2 Year Yield 5.02 -0.02
"You don't know how to lie. If
you can't lie, you'll never go anywhere."
President Richard Nixon, giving
advice to a political associate.
In the stock casinos, it’s all about the US inflation numbers due out later today and that meeting in San Francisco between Presidents Biden and Xi.
Europe’s stock casinos will probably be more
focused on the EU GDP release and the EU unemployment figures. Will either show the EU in or headed into
recession?
Asia markets
solidly higher ahead of Biden-Xi talks
UPDATED TUE, NOV 14 2023 12:26 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets rose on Tuesday as
investors look ahead to highly anticipated talks between the U.S. and China as
well as more economic data.
U.S.
President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping’s will
meet in-person in San Francisco later in the day, for the first time in about a year.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained
0.45%, while the Topix added 0.48%.
South Korea’s Kospi was
1.26% higher. The Kosdaq added 2.10%, staging a comeback after falling for five
straight sessions.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 ended
0.83% higher at 7,006.70, bouncing after two sessions of declines.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index reversed
early gains to fall 0.20%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index rose 0.25%.
Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 index
ended Monday’s session near the flat line as traders prepared for the release
of key U.S. inflation data.
It ended the day down 0.08%,
while the Nasdaq Composite closed
0.22% lower. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average advanced
0.16%.
Headline inflation, due Tuesday,
is expected to have grown 3.3% from 12 months earlier, according to economists
polled by Dow Jones. The metric is also forecasted to have advanced 0.1% from
the prior month.
Live
updates: Asia markets gain ahead of Biden-Xi talks (cnbc.com)
European markets
head for mixed open ahead of euro zone GDP data
UPDATED TUE, NOV 14 2023 12:41 AM
EST
European
markets are heading for a mixed open Tuesday, with investors looking ahead to
preliminary third quarter gross domestic product data from the euro zone.
Other data
releases include the single currency area’s unemployment figures for the third
quarter and Germany’s ZEW survey of economic sentiment in November. Earnings
come from Vodafone.
Asia-Pacific
markets rose overnight as investors looked ahead to highly
anticipated talks between the U.S. and China as well as more economic data. U.S.
President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping’s will
meet in-person in San Francisco this week, for the first time in about a year.
U.S.
stock futures were flat overnight as investors prepare for the
October consumer price index reading slated for release before the start of
U.S. trading. Investors will parse the report for insights into the path of
inflation that can inform expectations for how, or if, the Federal Reserve will
adjust interest rates going forward.
European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Next meet Dr. Copper, PhD. Econ. Is Dr.
Copper now signalling a new global recession arriving?
Doctor Copper: Definition, Theory, Use as
an Indicator
By JAMES CHEN Updated September
30, 2022
The term Doctor Copper is market lingo
for this base metal that is reputed to have a "Ph.D. in economics"
because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy. Because
of copper's widespread applications in most sectors of the economy—from homes
and factories to electronics and power generation and transmission—demand
for copper is often viewed as a reliable leading indicator of economic health.
This demand is reflected in the market price of copper.
Doctor
Copper, which is in fact a concept rather than a person, is often cited by
market and commodity analysts as having a strong ability to assess overall
economic well-being through the price of copper because of the metal's
wide-ranging application in construction, electrical equipment, and
transportation. The percentage of global copper production consumed by each
sector is estimated by the Copper Development Association (CDA) to be around
46% building construction, 21% electrical, and about 16% for transportation
with the last 17% used in consumer products and industrial machinery/equipment.1
This
makes copper prices a good leading indicator of the economic cycle. For
example, if orders for copper are being canceled or delayed, the price will
drop. This can be a leading indicator that an economic recession is at hand.
Conversely, if orders for copper are rising, the price will go up. This can be
a leading indicator that industrial jobs are increasing and the economy remains
healthy.
More
Doctor Copper: Definition, Theory, Use as an Indicator
(investopedia.com)
Finally, will the US government shutdown on
Friday?
New speaker Mike Johnson faces first test as government shutdown looms
November 13, 2023
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) spent
his first two weeks atop the House Republican leadership rung rarely opining
and instead just listening.
In his first meeting with one of the
conference’s five ideological factions, Johnson listened as the House Freedom
Caucus passionately argued to curb spending, prioritize national security in
upcoming fiscal fights and temporarily set two deadlines to fund the government
into early next year.
Days
later, moderate Republicans implored Johnson to avoid making swing-district
lawmakers take tough votes or face an embarrassing defeat when they revolted on
the House floor. He then listened as appropriators — tasked with assigning how
federal funds are spent each year — pleaded that he avoid a government shutdown
by ignoring the two-tiered proposal and instead passing a clean extension of
current funding levels, arguing that the hard right would probably vote against
any short-term measure.
After attending three meetings with Johnson, Rep. Dave
Joyce (R-Ohio) eventually blurted out, “What do you want?”
Joyce and the Republican conference got their answer
Saturday. Johnson ultimately decided to move forward with a stopgap funding
proposal meant to appease the hard right while trying not to alienate
the centrists. The result was a two-tiered funding schedule that does not
include other demands from across the GOP conference, such as steep budget
cuts, a border security proposal and funding for Israel or Ukraine.
Instead of appeasing just one
ideological faction, the proposal has angered the hard right, puzzled the
middle and been mocked by the White House. But it may attract enough support,
including from Democrats in the House and the Senate, to land on the president’s
desk this week.
How Johnson handles the threat of a
government shutdown at the end of the week is his first major test and will set
the stage for the rest of his speakership.
More
New speaker Mike Johnson faces first test as government shutdown looms (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The Fed is terrified Americans could get used to high inflation. It may already be happening.
November 12, 2023
A
worrisome sign for the Federal Reserve is starting to emerge.
The
Fed keeps a close eye on several risks that could make its job of taming
inflation even more difficult, such as red-hot consumer demand keeping some upward pressure
on prices and the possible effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on oil
prices.
But
the US central bank also pays close attention to whether Americans still have
faith inflation will eventually return to normal. That faith seems to be
eroding.
The
University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey released Friday showed that
Americans’ long-run inflation expectations rose to 3.2% this month, the highest
level since 2011.
And those perceptions could continue to get worse the longer it
takes the Fed get inflation back to its 2% target. Fed officials don’t expect
inflation to reach 2% until 2026, according to their latest economic
projections released in September.
If
there’s one thing that would make the Fed quake in its boots, it would be
worsening inflation expectations.
“If we
find that consumers or businesses are really starting to feel like that
long-term level of inflation … is creeping up, if that’s their expectation,
we’ve got to act and we’ve got to get that under control,” Atlanta Fed
President Raphael Bostic told Bloomberg earlier this month.
If
Americans lose faith that inflation can ever return to normal that would prompt
the Fed to tighten monetary policy even more — either by raising interest rates
or keeping them elevated for much longer than expected.
The
Fed’s benchmark lending rate is currently at a 22-year high and investors already expect the central
bank to keep rates higher for longer.
“I
worked at the Fed for six years and if inflation expectations are drifting
higher and they’re not under control, the Fed absolutely will act,” Luke
Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors, told CNN.
“That
is the one thing that gives them trouble sleeping at night. They don’t lose
sleep over recessions because they come and go, but they do lose sleep over
long-term inflation expectations drifting higher,” he said.
It’s
unclear if inflation expectations will continue to worsen, and the Fed looks at
a broad range of surveys, not just the University of Michigan’s. But the
university’s survey is one of the most closely watched by investors and
economists.
The
Fed specifically focuses on long-run inflation expectations and Fed Chair
Jerome Powell makes it a point to mention the state of Americans’ inflation
perceptions at every news conference after officials set monetary policy (which
happens eight times a year.)
During
his most recent post-meeting presser earlier this month after officials voted
to hold rates steady, Powell said “longer-term inflation expectations appear to
remain well anchored.”
But
the clock is ticking, inflation remains well above 2% and some economists
believe the last mile of the Fed’s inflation fight might be the most difficult.
“I remain willing to
support raising the federal funds rate at a future meeting should the incoming
data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled or is insufficient to
bring inflation down to 2% in a timely way,” Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, one the
Fed’s most hawkish officials, said last week at a New York Bankers Association
forum in Palm Beach, Florida.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Study Reveals
Most Common Chronic Symptoms After COVID-19 Vaccination
Yale
University study focused on people with self-reported symptoms.
11/12/2023 Updated: 11/12/2023
A new study shows
some of the most common chronic symptoms among people who began experiencing
the problems after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine.
The most common
symptoms were exercise intolerance, excessive fatigue, numbness, brain fog, and
neuropathy, researchers reported in the paper.
Insomnia,
palpitations, myalgia, tinnitus, headache, burning sensations, and dizziness
were also experienced by at least half of the participants in the study, which
was funded in part by the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH).
Participants
reported a median of 22 symptoms, with a ceiling of 35.
The study focused
on people "who report a severe, debilitating chronic condition following
COVID-19 vaccination" that "began soon after COVID-19 vaccination and
persisted in many people for a year or more," the researchers said.
The study was led
by Dr. Harlan Krumholz of the Department of Internal Medicine at the Yale
School of Medicine and Yilun Wu of the Yale School of Public Health's
Department of Biostatistics.
It was published on Nov. 10 as a preprint ahead of peer review.
The paper comes from Yale's
Listen to Immune, Symptom and Treatment Experiences Now (LISTEN) research,
which examines both so-called long COVID and post-vaccine adverse events.
Researchers began
recruiting participants in May 2022. Participants filled out a survey, and
researchers had access to their health records.
The study
featured adults who reported post-vaccination problems from May 2022 through
July 2023. The 388 people who also reported so-called long COVID, or lingering
symptoms after COVID-19 infection, were excluded. Another 146 people who didn't
completely fill out the survey were also ultimately left out.
The median age of
the participants was 46, and 80 percent were female. Approximately 88 percent
live in the United States.
More
Study Reveals Most Common Chronic Symptoms After
COVID-19 Vaccination | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Heaps
of pharmaceuticals, toxic chemicals found in recycled plastics
Michael Franco November 10, 2023
While the
use of recycled plastics is normally considered a noble endeavor, a new study
says it's time to think twice. In an analysis of the material from more than 10
different countries, hundreds of potentially harmful chemicals were uncovered.
The study,
led by scientists at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, looked at recycled
plastic pellets from 13 nations in Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa and South
America. By using a range of chemical analysis tools, it was found that the
pellets all contained a mind-boggling array of compounds, many of which are
considered highly toxic.
The largest class
of chemicals found were pesticides, with 162 chemical compounds coming from
this category. Second in the list were 89 different pharmaceuticals. Third
place went to 65 different industrial chemicals. These were followed by other
classes of chemicals including surfactants, stimulants, fragrances, dyes,
repellents, corrosion inhibitors, and more. In all, the researchers say that
"491 organic compounds were detected and quantified, with an additional
170 compounds tentatively annotated."
Some of these
chemicals come from the manufacturing of plastics themselves, while others are
introduced during the recycling stage, and still others find their ways into
the plastics through the process of adsorption, a process in which atoms of
certain substances form a film that adheres to various surfaces. Because of the
range of compounds found, the researchers say that they believe recycled
plastics are unfit for most uses and that they don't contribute to a circular
material lifecycle.
"Plastic recycling has
been touted as a solution to the plastics pollution crisis, but toxic chemicals
in plastics complicate their reuse and disposal and hinder recycling,"
says Prof. Bethanie Carney Almroth, of the University of Gothenburg.
The researchers point out
that there are currently no monitoring programs in place to analyze the
chemicals in recycled plastics and that only 1% of plastics chemicals are
subject to international regulation. They add that no policies exist regarding
the reporting of chemicals used in the recycling process, and call for this to
change.
"The hazardous chemicals
present risks to recycling workers and consumers, as well as to the wider
society and environment," write the research team in correspondence
published in Science this month. "Chemical additives known to cause
harm to human health and the environment must be rapidly phased out, and
non-intentionally added substances must be identified and limited."
In light of the findings, the
research team additionally adds that regulations need to be put into place that
specify where recycled plastics can and cannot be used, such as in toys and
food packaging.
The study has been published
in ScienceDirect.
Source: University of Gothenburg via EurekAlert
Heaps of pharmaceuticals, toxic chemicals found in
recycled plastics (newatlas.com)
"I was not lying. I said things
that later on seemed to be untrue."
President Richard Nixon, reflecting
on the Watergate scandal in 1978.
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