Tuesday, 14 November 2023

US Inflation Day. Xi Meets Biden. EU GDP. Dr. Copper.

Baltic Dry Index. 1655 +12            Brent Crude  82.71

Spot Gold 1945                     US 2 Year Yield 5.02 -0.02

"You don't know how to lie. If you can't lie, you'll never go anywhere."

President Richard Nixon, giving advice to a political associate.

In the stock casinos, it’s all about the US inflation numbers due out later today and that meeting in San Francisco between Presidents Biden and Xi.

Europe’s stock casinos will probably be more focused on the EU GDP release and the EU unemployment figures.  Will either show the EU in or headed into recession?


Asia markets solidly higher ahead of Biden-Xi talks

UPDATED TUE, NOV 14 2023 12:26 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets rose on Tuesday as investors look ahead to highly anticipated talks between the U.S. and China as well as more economic data.

U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping’s will meet in-person in San Francisco later in the day, for the first time in about a year.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.45%, while the Topix added 0.48%.

South Korea’s Kospi was 1.26% higher. The Kosdaq added 2.10%, staging a comeback after falling for five straight sessions.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 ended 0.83% higher at 7,006.70, bouncing after two sessions of declines.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index reversed early gains to fall 0.20%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index rose 0.25%.

Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 index ended Monday’s session near the flat line as traders prepared for the release of key U.S. inflation data.

It ended the day down 0.08%, while the Nasdaq Composite closed 0.22% lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.16%.

Headline inflation, due Tuesday, is expected to have grown 3.3% from 12 months earlier, according to economists polled by Dow Jones. The metric is also forecasted to have advanced 0.1% from the prior month.

Live updates: Asia markets gain ahead of Biden-Xi talks (cnbc.com)

European markets head for mixed open ahead of euro zone GDP data

UPDATED TUE, NOV 14 2023 12:41 AM EST

European markets are heading for a mixed open Tuesday, with investors looking ahead to preliminary third quarter gross domestic product data from the euro zone.

Other data releases include the single currency area’s unemployment figures for the third quarter and Germany’s ZEW survey of economic sentiment in November. Earnings come from Vodafone.

Asia-Pacific markets rose overnight as investors looked ahead to highly anticipated talks between the U.S. and China as well as more economic data. U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping’s will meet in-person in San Francisco this week, for the first time in about a year.

U.S. stock futures were flat overnight as investors prepare for the October consumer price index reading slated for release before the start of U.S. trading. Investors will parse the report for insights into the path of inflation that can inform expectations for how, or if, the Federal Reserve will adjust interest rates going forward.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)

Next meet Dr. Copper, PhD. Econ. Is Dr. Copper now signalling a new global recession arriving?

Doctor Copper: Definition, Theory, Use as an Indicator

By JAMES CHEN  Updated September 30, 2022

The term Doctor Copper is market lingo for this base metal that is reputed to have a "Ph.D. in economics" because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy. Because of copper's widespread applications in most sectors of the economy—from homes and factories to electronics and power generation and transmission—demand for copper is often viewed as a reliable leading indicator of economic health. This demand is reflected in the market price of copper.

Doctor Copper, which is in fact a concept rather than a person, is often cited by market and commodity analysts as having a strong ability to assess overall economic well-being through the price of copper because of the metal's wide-ranging application in construction, electrical equipment, and transportation. The percentage of global copper production consumed by each sector is estimated by the Copper Development Association (CDA) to be around 46% building construction, 21% electrical, and about 16% for transportation with the last 17% used in consumer products and industrial machinery/equipment.1

This makes copper prices a good leading indicator of the economic cycle. For example, if orders for copper are being canceled or delayed, the price will drop. This can be a leading indicator that an economic recession is at hand. Conversely, if orders for copper are rising, the price will go up. This can be a leading indicator that industrial jobs are increasing and the economy remains healthy.

More

Doctor Copper: Definition, Theory, Use as an Indicator (investopedia.com)

Finally, will the US government shutdown on Friday?


New speaker Mike Johnson faces first test as government shutdown looms

November 13, 2023

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) spent his first two weeks atop the House Republican leadership rung rarely opining and instead just listening.

In his first meeting with one of the conference’s five ideological factions, Johnson listened as the House Freedom Caucus passionately argued to curb spending, prioritize national security in upcoming fiscal fights and temporarily set two deadlines to fund the government into early next year.

Days later, moderate Republicans implored Johnson to avoid making swing-district lawmakers take tough votes or face an embarrassing defeat when they revolted on the House floor. He then listened as appropriators — tasked with assigning how federal funds are spent each year — pleaded that he avoid a government shutdown by ignoring the two-tiered proposal and instead passing a clean extension of current funding levels, arguing that the hard right would probably vote against any short-term measure.

After attending three meetings with Johnson, Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio) eventually blurted out, “What do you want?”

Joyce and the Republican conference got their answer Saturday. Johnson ultimately decided to move forward with a stopgap funding proposal meant to appease the hard right while trying not to alienate the centrists. The result was a two-tiered funding schedule that does not include other demands from across the GOP conference, such as steep budget cuts, a border security proposal and funding for Israel or Ukraine.

Instead of appeasing just one ideological faction, the proposal has angered the hard right, puzzled the middle and been mocked by the White House. But it may attract enough support, including from Democrats in the House and the Senate, to land on the president’s desk this week.

How Johnson handles the threat of a government shutdown at the end of the week is his first major test and will set the stage for the rest of his speakership.

More

New speaker Mike Johnson faces first test as government shutdown looms (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

The Fed is terrified Americans could get used to high inflation. It may already be happening.

November 12, 2023

A worrisome sign for the Federal Reserve is starting to emerge.

The Fed keeps a close eye on several risks that could make its job of taming inflation even more difficult, such as red-hot consumer demand keeping some upward pressure on prices and the possible effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on oil prices.

But the US central bank also pays close attention to whether Americans still have faith inflation will eventually return to normal. That faith seems to be eroding.

The University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey released Friday showed that Americans’ long-run inflation expectations rose to 3.2% this month, the highest level since 2011.

And those perceptions could continue to get worse the longer it takes the Fed get inflation back to its 2% target. Fed officials don’t expect inflation to reach 2% until 2026, according to their latest economic projections released in September.

If there’s one thing that would make the Fed quake in its boots, it would be worsening inflation expectations.

“If we find that consumers or businesses are really starting to feel like that long-term level of inflation … is creeping up, if that’s their expectation, we’ve got to act and we’ve got to get that under control,” Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Bloomberg earlier this month.

If Americans lose faith that inflation can ever return to normal that would prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy even more — either by raising interest rates or keeping them elevated for much longer than expected.

The Fed’s benchmark lending rate is currently at a 22-year high and investors already expect the central bank to keep rates higher for longer.

“I worked at the Fed for six years and if inflation expectations are drifting higher and they’re not under control, the Fed absolutely will act,” Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors, told CNN.

“That is the one thing that gives them trouble sleeping at night. They don’t lose sleep over recessions because they come and go, but they do lose sleep over long-term inflation expectations drifting higher,” he said.

It’s unclear if inflation expectations will continue to worsen, and the Fed looks at a broad range of surveys, not just the University of Michigan’s. But the university’s survey is one of the most closely watched by investors and economists.

The Fed specifically focuses on long-run inflation expectations and Fed Chair Jerome Powell makes it a point to mention the state of Americans’ inflation perceptions at every news conference after officials set monetary policy (which happens eight times a year.)

During his most recent post-meeting presser earlier this month after officials voted to hold rates steady, Powell said “longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored.”

But the clock is ticking, inflation remains well above 2% and some economists believe the last mile of the Fed’s inflation fight might be the most difficult.

“I remain willing to support raising the federal funds rate at a future meeting should the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled or is insufficient to bring inflation down to 2% in a timely way,” Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, one the Fed’s most hawkish officials, said last week at a New York Bankers Association forum in Palm Beach, Florida.

More

The Fed is terrified Americans could get used to high inflation. It may already be happening. (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Study Reveals Most Common Chronic Symptoms After COVID-19 Vaccination

Yale University study focused on people with self-reported symptoms.

11/12/2023  Updated:  11/12/2023

A new study shows some of the most common chronic symptoms among people who began experiencing the problems after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine.

The most common symptoms were exercise intolerance, excessive fatigue, numbness, brain fog, and neuropathy, researchers reported in the paper.

Insomnia, palpitations, myalgia, tinnitus, headache, burning sensations, and dizziness were also experienced by at least half of the participants in the study, which was funded in part by the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH).

Participants reported a median of 22 symptoms, with a ceiling of 35.

The study focused on people "who report a severe, debilitating chronic condition following COVID-19 vaccination" that "began soon after COVID-19 vaccination and persisted in many people for a year or more," the researchers said.

The study was led by Dr. Harlan Krumholz of the Department of Internal Medicine at the Yale School of Medicine and Yilun Wu of the Yale School of Public Health's Department of Biostatistics.

It was published on Nov. 10 as a preprint ahead of peer review.

The paper comes from Yale's Listen to Immune, Symptom and Treatment Experiences Now (LISTEN) research, which examines both so-called long COVID and post-vaccine adverse events.

Researchers began recruiting participants in May 2022. Participants filled out a survey, and researchers had access to their health records.

The study featured adults who reported post-vaccination problems from May 2022 through July 2023. The 388 people who also reported so-called long COVID, or lingering symptoms after COVID-19 infection, were excluded. Another 146 people who didn't completely fill out the survey were also ultimately left out.

The median age of the participants was 46, and 80 percent were female. Approximately 88 percent live in the United States.

More

Study Reveals Most Common Chronic Symptoms After COVID-19 Vaccination | The Epoch Times

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Heaps of pharmaceuticals, toxic chemicals found in recycled plastics

Michael Franco  November 10, 2023

While the use of recycled plastics is normally considered a noble endeavor, a new study says it's time to think twice. In an analysis of the material from more than 10 different countries, hundreds of potentially harmful chemicals were uncovered.

The study, led by scientists at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, looked at recycled plastic pellets from 13 nations in Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa and South America. By using a range of chemical analysis tools, it was found that the pellets all contained a mind-boggling array of compounds, many of which are considered highly toxic.

The largest class of chemicals found were pesticides, with 162 chemical compounds coming from this category. Second in the list were 89 different pharmaceuticals. Third place went to 65 different industrial chemicals. These were followed by other classes of chemicals including surfactants, stimulants, fragrances, dyes, repellents, corrosion inhibitors, and more. In all, the researchers say that "491 organic compounds were detected and quantified, with an additional 170 compounds tentatively annotated."

Some of these chemicals come from the manufacturing of plastics themselves, while others are introduced during the recycling stage, and still others find their ways into the plastics through the process of adsorption, a process in which atoms of certain substances form a film that adheres to various surfaces. Because of the range of compounds found, the researchers say that they believe recycled plastics are unfit for most uses and that they don't contribute to a circular material lifecycle.

"Plastic recycling has been touted as a solution to the plastics pollution crisis, but toxic chemicals in plastics complicate their reuse and disposal and hinder recycling," says Prof. Bethanie Carney Almroth, of the University of Gothenburg.

The researchers point out that there are currently no monitoring programs in place to analyze the chemicals in recycled plastics and that only 1% of plastics chemicals are subject to international regulation. They add that no policies exist regarding the reporting of chemicals used in the recycling process, and call for this to change.

"The hazardous chemicals present risks to recycling workers and consumers, as well as to the wider society and environment," write the research team in correspondence published in Science this month. "Chemical additives known to cause harm to human health and the environment must be rapidly phased out, and non-intentionally added substances must be identified and limited."

In light of the findings, the research team additionally adds that regulations need to be put into place that specify where recycled plastics can and cannot be used, such as in toys and food packaging.

The study has been published in ScienceDirect.

Source: University of Gothenburg via EurekAlert

Heaps of pharmaceuticals, toxic chemicals found in recycled plastics (newatlas.com)

"I was not lying. I said things that later on seemed to be untrue."

President Richard Nixon, reflecting on the Watergate scandal in 1978.

  

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